Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... ess-taiwan
PLA needs a limited, lightning war for success in Taiwan
Madhav Nalapat, September 3, 2022
Were the conflict to remain confined to Taiwan, the PLA would have the upper hand. Once the field of operations widens into other PLA-afflicted theatres, from Djibouti to Gwadar to Hambantota to Kyaukpyu, etc., the PRC would lose control of the military situation even across the Taiwan Straits.

Singapore: War clouds are gathering across the Indo-Pacific, caused by the rush towards domination of that space by CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping. Observers have studied the arbitrary, ruthless manner in which Xi has consolidated his grip over the higher echelons of the CCP, a political party that has over 90 million members and which controls China. Unlike Deng Xiaoping, who also worked to fulfil the goals of the CCP but was pragmatic in deciding how these were to be achieved, Xi is in what seems a reckless rush to PRC primacy, while further expanding the control of the party-directed state machinery over the population. Although Xi has been compared to Chairman Mao Zedong on numerous occasions, the reality is that behind his sometimes-blustery rhetoric, Mao was a realist, who acted only when he was forced to (as in Korea in the 1950s war) or (as in the 1962 conflict with India) regarded conditions as opportune for success. There were his ill-fated initiatives such as the Great Leap Forward in the 1950s, which ended up as a Great Leap Backward where the economy was concerned. The CCP Chairman believed that, inspired by the Chinese Communist Party led by himself, ordinary citizens could defy the laws of production and even triple the overall production of iron needed for infrastructure development. He turned out to be wrong, and infrastructure in the PRC remained in a doleful state. There was no room in Mao’s mind for himself or the PRC to play second fiddle to any country or individual except as a temporary tactic. He bristled at the assumption of Joseph Stalin and later Nikita Khrushchev that it was the USSR, not the PRC, that was the leader of the international communist movement, but kept his peace until the mid-1960s out of pragmatic considerations.
U.S. GAVE UNNECESSARY CONCESSIONS TO PRC
During the latter part of the 1960s, Chairman Mao intensified the sending out of feelers to Washington for a rapprochement against their common enemy, the USSR. Eventually, it was an affluent lady in Hong Kong who on behalf of CCP elements contacted an acquaintance, then Vice-President Richard M. Nixon, and gave him the idea that such a rapprochement was feasible, and that it would substantially boost Washington’s capability to hasten the fall of the Soviet Union, an eventuality that had also been pursued by Mao since the 1960s. Soon after he took over as President of the US in 1969, Nixon activated this Hong Kong channel and when a welcoming response was received from Beijing, he sent an initially sceptical Henry Kissinger to that capital. It is another matter that because of the unlimited access that Kissinger used to give key media personalities, the credit (and now the blame) for Nixon’s opening towards the PRC was given to Kissinger. There began to appear glowing reports on his diplomacy, all quoting “high-level” anonymous sources, all of which comprised Kissinger himself. He soon got powerfully influenced by Premier Zhou Enlai, who would have become a billionaire selling used cars had he been a US citizen, and charmed his US interlocutor into ensuring that numerous concessions were given to the Chinese side that were far in excess of what the CCP leadership had anticipated and would have been satisfied with.
TAIWAN’S RISK WINDOW OPENING
Although troves of sensitive intelligence, including on India, began to be handed over to the PRC on a regular basis by Kissinger and his successors, it was after the ascent to power of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 before business-to-business links between the US and China grew. Among the most enthusiastic in investing money in China were Japanese businesspersons, who were followed a few years later by the Taiwanese. Fast forward to when Xi Jinping was in charge of Fujian province, from where in past times most of those who crossed the Taiwan Strait and settled down had come from. People in the province are considered to have a gambling instinct, and this may have been a factor in the exodus that began to significantly populate the island with Fujianese around two centuries ago. The next wave of immigrants from China came in 1949, and was composed of individuals from all across China, which had by then fallen to the CCP, thereby forcing KMT supremo Chiang Kai-shek to seek refuge in Taiwan. While the original settlers from Fujian are known within the island country as “Taiwanese”, those who came ashore with Chiang are referred to as “Mainlanders”. The latter began grabbing much of the land and assets of Taiwan, breeding the dissatisfaction and desire for freedom from control by outsiders that became the dominant mood in Taiwanese society across all except the very old among the “Mainlanders” by the close of the initial decade of the 21st century.
The “Taiwanese” segment of Taiwan’s population tilts towards the independence-minded DPP rather than the PRC-friendly KMT. The people of the island country want overwhelmingly to retain their freedom from PRC control, but equally they crave a peaceful future. The train of Taiwanese democracy moves along these two tracks, but the vow by CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping that Taiwan would by whatever means necessary be united with the PRC during his tenure has unsettled the status quo. That Xi will fulfil his objective of securing an unprecedented third term in office by next month is almost certain. However. in that process, Xi would have squandered almost all of the goodwill within the CCP that he had when taking charge in 2012. In his efforts at securing a fourth term in office, Xi would need to boost his popularity within the ruling party substantially, and is likely to consider the conquest of Taiwan the surest path towards that acclaim. Which is why the CCP General Secretary’s impending third 5-year term beginning in October 2022 and lasting into 2027 has created a window of risk for Taiwan unprecedented since 1949. There have been past efforts at subduing Taiwan, such as during the 1958 Second Taiwan Straits crisis that saw the massive shelling of Taiwanese territory by the PRC, a crisis in which there were several thousand casualties on the Taiwanese side, and almost an equal number on the Chinese side, as the KMT government in Taiwan responded with all the firepower they had been given by the US. The Third Taiwan Straits crisis was in 1995, when there were efforts at intimidation through aggressive posturing by the PLA. These were puny in comparison with the level of attempted intimidation caused by the Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, which erupted during and after House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on 2 August 2022, a visit that was used as an excuse by Xi to resort to a brazen show of military force across the perimeter of the island country.
.....
Gautam
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Today i.e. 8 Sept, 2022, India and China issued a joint communique that PLA is withdrawing from the Gogra-Hotsprings area.

This restores the status quo ante as of April 2020.

Very good move on part of China.
The Remaining is DepsangPlain which is pre-2014 and likely to be negotiated as part of a larger settlement.
Pratyush wrote:India, China troops begin disengagement at Gogra-Hot Springs in Ladakh
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 076682.cms
08 Sep 2022
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi ... ten-future

Interesting article that describes China since 1949.
And a long litany of how XJP is different from the previous leaders.

Ignore all the may or perhaps in the first few paras.
Good recap.
Basically, PRC is still a Confucius society seeking order from which everything flows.
The author has let personal animosity cloud his article.

Xi Jinping is no megalomaniac. He could have rushed into Afghanistan.just like Mao Zedong rushed into Tibet.
Basically Biden was using Empty Fort strategy in Afghanistan. Evacuate a valuable piece of geography to entice China.

XJP did not fall for that gambit.
Now Taliban will eat up US munna Pakistan.
A thousand years ago redux when Aibek conquered Punjab and Sind ending Arab rule.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

The Public Diplomacy Division of MEA has produced a book on
India-China Cultural Contacts Encyclopedia Vol I in 2014

Good initiative to stop the demonization of ties.

Want to see the Volume II
sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6088
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by sanjaykumar »

Fabulous find. Just skimming it, I did not find anything on sculpture/iconography.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

My sadness is the MEA along with China already consolidated this material but did not disseminate it properly.
I had to read 15 books to get what was in these two volumes wrt India-China ties.

Am still reading them for it's good to know more.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by kit »

https://www.livemint.com/videos/india-f ... 36453.html

India's Serious Fraud Investigation Office has arrested a man named Dortse, who created fraudulent shell companies with Chinese link. As per ANI report, Dortse is responsible for the whole racket of incorporating a large number of shell companies in India and appointing dummy directors on their boards. Ministry of Corporate Affairs issued a statement on the Saturday arrest today morning. Watch this video to know more.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

https://twitter.com/NepCorres/status/15 ... _bW63eyYVA
Big Breaking

Xi Jinping was likely removed from Chairman of the Military Commission's post under the shadow of a Military coup.

Xi is rumored to have undergone a military coup.
#PLA special forces gathered at Shenyang Military airport under the orders of Li Qiaoming.
Vivasvat
BRFite
Posts: 346
Joined: 11 May 2005 08:03

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Vivasvat »

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/statu ... mkGdw&s=09
Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd

#PLA military vehicles heading to #Beijing on Sep 22. Starting from Huanlai County near Beijing & ending in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, entire procession as long as 80 KM. Meanwhile, rumor has it that #XiJinping was under arrest after #CCP seniors removed him as head of PLA
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

So far it's quiet. If those tanks moved out from Beijing it means XJP is in control.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

I too am seeing a number of reports on Xi Jinping being removed.
https://zeenews.india.com/india/militar ... 13977.html
Military Coup in China, Xi Jinping under house arrest, General Li Qiaoming next President, say social media rumours
Social media is abuzz with the rumours of Chinese President Xi Jinping being put under house arrest, and a possible coup taking place in the country, a week after two of its former minister were sentenced for corruption - a highly controversial decision in nation's history.
Edited By: Zee Media Bureau|Sep 25, 2022

Social media is abuzz with the rumours of Chinese President Xi Jinping being put under house arrest, and a possible coup taking place in the country, a week after two of its former minister were sentenced for corruption - a highly controversial decision in nation's history.
As per the social media posts, many by experts across the fields from China itself, an unprecedented military movement was seen towards Xi Jinping's residence in Beijing. Military vehicles were seen making a movement close to Xi's residence. A few puported videos of such movements have also gone viral on social media. However, their is no official confirmation on the same.
A number of social media users from China said that a coup was almost confirmed as the country, without giving any specific reason, cancelled over 9,000 domestic flights. Some even said that military chief General Li Qiaoming is set to become next President.
......
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-hou ... rs-1746014
Xi Jinping Trends Online Amid Coup Rumors, Canceled Flights
EWAN PALMER, 9/24/22

Chinese President Xi Jinping became one of the top trending topics on Twitter amid unsubstantiated reports he is under house arrest and that China is in the midst of a military coup.
Xi and the phrase #ChinaCoup trended on social media after tens of thousands of users spread unconfirmed rumors that the president was detained and overthrown by the China's People's Liberation Army.
This speculation, which has not been discussed by any reputable sources, arrived as there are hardly any commercial flights flying over the capital of Beijing on Saturday, with unverified reports claiming all trains and buses are also being canceled out of Beijing.
Beijing Capital Airport's website does show that several flights out of China's capital have been canceled; but many others are still scheduled or already landed. There has also been reports the fights were canceled amid a planned military exercise.
.......
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.outlookindia.com/internatio ... ews-225623
Fact Check: Is China Having A Coup And Is Xi Jinping Under House Arrest? Here's What We Know
Rumours of a coup against Chinese President Xi Jinping are going around on social media, but experts have highlighted that there is no concrete evidence of coup or any disturbance in China so far.
Outlook Web Desk, 24 SEP 2022

The internet is abuzz with reports saying 'something is up' in China, with people's guesses ranging from a political or military coup against President Xi Jinping to potential military activity in Western China.
The evidence cited for such guesses includes reports of cancelled passenger flights in parts of China, Xi not being seen in public for some time, and footage allegedly of military vehicles moving towards the capital Beijing.
However, there is neither any official comment on these guesses nor any confirmed report on military movement towards the capital.
Here we share what's being said on social media, particularly in India, and what are the facts that we know for sure.
Is Xi Jinping facing a coup?
Twitter accounts with several thousands followers have shared that there has been a coup against Xi. Photographs of a successor have also appeared. However, none of these updates are from verified or credible accounts and most of these accounts are of anonymous users.
Videos of alleged military movement have also surfaced.
"This video of military vehicles moving to Beijing comes immediately after the grounding of 59 per cent of the flights in the country and the jailings of senior officials. There’s a lot of smoke, which means there is a fire somewhere inside the CCP. China is unstable," said author Gordon G Chang.
.......
Gautam
Just too good to be true.
Added later: Some of the reports say that there are little/no flights over Tibet. It was my understanding that normally very few civilian aircraft flew in that area.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoUBxDd ... naRevealed
Strange article on the night Xi Jinping rushed home causes a lot of speculation
Sep 24, 2022 The CCP’s General Secretary Xi Jinping hurriedly ended his 3-day visit to Central Asia, going directly from the venue of the Shanghai Cooperation Conference (SCO) in Samarkand to the airport to return to Beijing. On the same day, Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong published an article in a party publication calling for allegiance to Xi. These moves have sparked a lot of speculation.
.......

Gautam
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4040
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by suryag »

So is there a coup or no ?
asbchakri
BRFite
Posts: 373
Joined: 14 Sep 2007 11:20
Location: Chennai
Contact:

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by asbchakri »

So if there is a military coup, what will be implications for India.
Dumal
BRFite
Posts: 314
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dumal »

My take is even if there is a power grab, CCP will have managed it such that, for example Xi is kept on a tight leash but basically faking it as the supreme leader for another year or so, and when most of the world loses interest in it, quietly give way to a new leader under the garb of ill-health etc.

However, I doubt if this will fool the more resourceful governments such as the US and any subtle changes in their behavior towards the Chinese side might give us some clues.

JM2P.
rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4451
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by rsingh »

asbchakri wrote:So if there is a military coup, what will be implications for India.
Less hawkish I suppose. Higherlidership is tired of raising stakes and then not result...just loss of face.
S_Madhukar
BRFite
Posts: 513
Joined: 27 Mar 2019 18:15

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by S_Madhukar »

Eleven looked subdued at SCO so even if there is no coup there is some power struggle. It will be as the Zemin and Jintao factions must have lost a lot of money last couple of years. My uneducated guess is at the Congress Eleven retires gracefully. For Eleven to extend his term will need quite a lot of blood letting that the country can’t afford to do now. Without Pooh though we need to hasten our efforts for our economy, wonder how quickly they will change course.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... y-congress
China becomes ‘hothouse’ of intrigue ahead of crucial Communist party congress
Swiftly debunked rumours of coups swirl as Beijing prepares to host critical meeting of elite, at which Xi Jinping is expected to be granted a third term
Helen Davidson in Taipei, 26 Sep 2022

Purges of senior officials and unfounded rumours of military coups in Beijing have fed into feverish speculation ahead of a key meeting of China’s ruling party next month, when president Xi Jinping is expected to be granted an unprecedented third term.
The jailing of a clique of senior security officials for corruption, followed by days of strange and quickly dispelled rumours of Xi being under house arrest, have fuelled what one analyst called a “hothouse” environment mired in secrecy and suspicion.
Last week, a Chinese court jailed the former vice-minister of public security Sun Lijun, the former justice minister Fu Zhenghua, and former police chiefs of Shanghai, Chongqing and Shanxi on corruption charges. Fu and the police chiefs had been accused of being part of a political clique surrounding Sun, and being disloyal to Xi.
The round-up was one of the biggest Chinese political purges in years, and came just weeks before the Chinese Communist party’s (CCP) most important political meeting – the twice a decade party congress – where the political elite are reshuffled around the various positions of power in the one-party state.
Xi is expected to be reappointed as leader of the party and military commission at the meeting, after he abolished the two-term limit in 2018 and waged a years-long anti-corruption campaign that also targeted many political opponents.
On Sunday state media announced the list of CCP central committee delegates, numbering almost 2,300, had been finalised. Xi’s inclusion on the list further refuted social media rumours that had been swirling since Saturday of a military coup. The unfounded claims – accompanied by unsourced videos of military vehicles and based mostly on mass flight cancellations – were debunked, but not before it began trending on Twitter.
There was no specific mention of the coup rumours on China’s social media, but a Weibo hashtag related to “airports across the country cancel flights” was viewed by more than 200,000 people over the weekend.
Some made fun of the rumours, noting the lack of any evidence of a political takeover on the ground in Beijing.
Drew Thompson, a scholar with the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said a coup in China wasn’t entirely implausible, and Xi had reportedly shown concern about the prospect in the past, but the weekend’s rumours looked more like “wishful thinking”. They appeared to originate in accounts associated with the Falun Gong movement, which Thompson said was “essentially not credible”.
“The rumour that Xi Jinping has been arrested has legs because it is such a sensitive political moment in China, and the recent trials (and convictions) of long-serving senior officials creates a hothouse atmosphere,” he said on Twitter.
.......
Gautam
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Harry Truman for this very ambiguity said
"How I wish for a one handed expert!"

An expert is one who always says "On The Other Hand....

When OTH is said they really don't know.

The true marker is 16 October when the 20th Congress happens.
Rest is all fog.
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25085
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... y-congress
China becomes ‘hothouse’ of intrigue ahead of crucial Communist party congress

Gautam, I post from another discussion a couple of days back elsewhere,
While the various rumours swirl around us, I recall an incident in the fag-end of 2012, just before the 18th Congress when there was a strong competition between XJP & Bo Xilai, even though XJP was already the Vice President. Now, Bo had exactly a similar past as XJP. He was also a Princeling, used to all the high comforts until driven away by the Cultural Revolution, banished to some remote corner of China just like XJP, and then resurrected by Deng Xiaoping after the Gang of Four was dethroned. Exactly like how it happened with XJP.

Bo's father was in charge of the 14th Group Army. Bo had had a very successful rise within the Party. In China, if one needs to end up in the Politburo or the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), one needs to have held top party positions in one of the coastal megacities in the East or the South or from Chongqing (the non-coastal megapolis in land-locked Sichuan). Bo had transformed Dalian in the Far East and then Chongqing too into what they are today.

Then, all hell broke loose. A policeman took asylum in the American Embassy in Chongqing spilling the beans about the murder of a British businessman by Bo Xilai and his wife over business deals. The American officials refused asylum and handed the policeman over to Beijing. As Bo saw his dreams being shattered, he is said to have travelled to Kunming in Yunnan to have a private chat with the General of the 14th Group Army, possibly recalling the deep-rooted connection of the Princeling with them. Bo Xilai became history just in time for the 18th Congress

Then, there was another twist to the tale. XJP, about to be anointed as the General Secretary, himself disappeared literally from the face of the Earth for two weeks. All kinds of rumours swirled around then too. Nobody knows until today what really happened. The majority opinion seems to be that he was locked in a battle with Jiang Zemin, the Party elder and Hu Jintao, the vacating General Secretary over his simultaneous assumption of power as General Secretary, President and the Chief of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

Everything was sorted out just in time for the 18th Congress and the rest is history.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... y-congress
China becomes ‘hothouse’ of intrigue ahead of crucial Communist party congress
Swiftly debunked rumours of coups swirl as Beijing prepares to host critical meeting of elite, at which Xi Jinping is expected to be granted a third term
Helen Davidson in Taipei, 26 Sep 2022


Purges of senior officials and unfounded rumours of military coups in Beijing have fed into feverish speculation ahead of a key meeting of China’s ruling party next month, when president Xi Jinping is expected to be granted an unprecedented third term.
1) The jailing of a clique of senior security officials for corruption, followed by days of strange and quickly dispelled rumours of Xi being under house arrest, have fuelled what one analyst called a “hothouse” environment mired in secrecy and suspicion.
Last week, a Chinese court jailed the former vice-minister of public security Sun Lijun, the former justice minister Fu Zhenghua, and former police chiefs of Shanghai, Chongqing and Shanxi on corruption charges. Fu and the police chiefs had been accused of being part of a political clique surrounding Sun, and being disloyal to Xi.
The round-up was one of the biggest Chinese political purges in years, and came just weeks before the Chinese Communist party’s (CCP) most important political meeting – the twice a decade party congress – where the political elite are reshuffled around the various positions of power in the one-party state.

2) Xi is expected to be reappointed as leader of the party and military commission at the meeting, after he abolished the two-term limit in 2018 and waged a years-long anti-corruption campaign that also targeted many political opponents.
On Sunday state media announced the list of CCP central committee delegates, numbering almost 2,300, had been finalised. Xi’s inclusion on the list further refuted social media rumours that had been swirling since Saturday of a military coup.


3)The unfounded claims – accompanied by unsourced videos of military vehicles and based mostly on mass flight cancellations – were debunked, but not before it began trending on Twitter.
There was no specific mention of the coup rumours on China’s social media, but a Weibo hashtag related to “airports across the country cancel flights” was viewed by more than 200,000 people over the weekend.

Some made fun of the rumours, noting the lack of any evidence of a political takeover on the ground in Beijing.

Drew Thompson, a scholar with the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said a coup in China wasn’t entirely implausible, and Xi had reportedly shown concern about the prospect in the past, but the weekend’s rumours looked more like “wishful thinking”. They appeared to originate in accounts associated with the Falun Gong movement, which Thompson said was “essentially not credible”.
“The rumour that Xi Jinping has been arrested has legs because it is such a sensitive political moment in China, and the recent trials (and convictions) of long-serving senior officials creates a hothouse atmosphere,” he said on Twitter.
.......
Gautam
so looks like a few incidents and wishful thinking spurred these 'coup' rumors.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

Sridharji and Ramanaji,
I too was hoping for a military coup in China, though I knew that it was just wishful thinking. Long time ago a dedicated person had taught me that a military coup is difficult to achieve in a communist country. He used the term Bonapartism to refer to a coup where counter revolutionary military officers seize power from revolutionaries, as it happened in France after a successful revolution. Communist governments are aware of this possibility and work to avoid this. They control the army with political commissars to make sure that the military is compliant to the communist leadership. Neither the USSR nor the Peoples Republic China has had a successful military coup.
Gautam
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/xi-m ... 220927.htm
Xi makes first public appearance after SCO summit, scotches coup rumours
K J M Varma, September 27, 2022

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday visited an exhibition of the Communist Party, appearing in public for the first time after his return from the SCO summit on September 16, which sparked rumours about his absence from the limelight ahead of next month's key Congress of the ruling party.
.....
Observers say that Xi not being seen in public may have been due to seven days mandatory quarantine in a designated place followed by a three-day home stay as per the official guidelines for those returning from abroad under the Dynamic Zero Covid policy, firmly advocated by Xi himself.
.....
Gautam
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Or time needed to settle things.
Anyway 16 October is only twenty days away.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

China Daily(from Beijing) of 27 September quoted on the front page a foreward that Xi Jinping wrote for a publication.
Still no pictures.
Also on Op-Ed page, the main article was about the need for strong leadership for the 20th Congress.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... ce=taboola
Xi hails China’s ‘martyrs’ as Beijing prepares for Congress
Ananth Krishnan, BEIJING, SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

Mr. Xi attended a ceremony in Tiananmen Square to mark “martyrs day” on the eve of a week-long national holiday
China’s President Xi Jinping on Friday led the top leadership of the ruling Communist Party in hailing those who had played a role in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) founding in 1949, two weeks ahead of a key party congress.
Mr. Xi attended a ceremony in Tiananmen Square to mark “martyrs day” on the eve of a week-long national holiday, one of his last major public events before he completes his second term in office and likely begins an unprecedented third five-year term following the party’s national congress, which convenes in Beijing on October 16.
Mr. Xi, along with six other members of the Politburo Standing Committee and representatives of the military, presented flower baskets at the monument to people’s heroes which the Communist Party built on the square in 1949 to honour those who helped found the PRC, including 3.7 million people who died between 1921, when the party was founded, and 1949.
The annual ceremony has been marked officially in China as “martyrs day” since 2014. Mr. Xi, who took over in 2012, has placed renewed emphasis during his rule on building public support for past figures in party history as well as for the military, including by passing a new law that now makes it a crime to “defame martyrs”.
......
Gautam
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25085
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:China Daily(from Beijing) of 27 September quoted on the front page a foreward that Xi Jinping wrote for a publication.
Still no pictures.
Also on Op-Ed page, the main article was about the need for strong leadership for the 20th Congress.
Don't link the two.

A few days back, CPC had released the first three volumes of a five-volume 'Xi Jinping Thoughts'. It has also organized an exhibition highlighting the progress made by China since 2013. Xi Jinping inaugurated that along with the outgoing PM Li and the other 5 members of the PSC. There is a video of that.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Do they have a one-volume synopsis of XJP thoughts?
ricky_v
BRFite
Posts: 1134
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ricky_v »

couple of ft articles, archived, no paywall
https://archive.ph/zgmXH
Demographers predict the world’s most populous country will start to shrink in 2022, a turning point with profound ramifications for its future.
Over the next five years, the first cohort of people who became parents during the “one-child policy” era that began in 1980 will increasingly advance from their 60s and 70s — or what sociologists describe as being “young-old” — into their 80s.
Wang said this growing group of “old-old”, with a higher likelihood of developing costly chronic diseases, would make greater care demands both on their children and the state.
Local governments are already struggling to meet the rising cost of health and social care. Their spending on China’s sprawling zero-Covid infrastructure has ballooned, while tax receipts from the battered property sector have plummeted.
“If this continues, how can China sustain the pension payments for this enlarging elderly population,” said Wang.
Yi Fuxian, an obstetrics expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a long-term critic of the one-child policy, said rising unemployment and fear of persistent lockdowns have prompted young couples to delay marriage and childbearing. He estimated this would reduce the number of births in China by 1mn in both 2021 and 2022.
“The zero-Covid policy has greatly reduced people’s willingness to have children,” Yi said.
the other article
https://archive.ph/UZdWn
Under its 60-point reform plan Xi’s new administration promised to get rid of obstacles that had been holding back consumer-led growth in China — including enforcing a property tax, granting more land rights to farmers and migrant workers, and opening state-controlled sectors to private capital.
The state’s tight grip was about to ease. If implemented as planned, analysts predicted at the time, China could maintain 7 per cent annual gross domestic product growth for at least the decade to come and make the transition into the category of high-income nations.
Almost 10 years on, many of those promises remain unfulfilled. At the same time, the Chinese economy faces diminishing returns after relying for years on growth that has been propelled by a debt-fuelled real estate investment boom.
“The 60 reforms would have largely expanded the role of consumption and private initiatives,” says Chen Zhiwu, a professor in Chinese finance and economy at the University of Hong Kong. “However, the market-oriented reform agenda has been largely sidelined . . . resulting in a larger role for the state and a shrunken role for the private sector.”
“It really is the household savings that gives you low consumption . . . China is at the level of income where other countries have built safety nets and therefore, they thrived in more domestic demand,” he says.
The IMF estimates that “if Chinese households consumed comparably to Brazilian households, their consumption levels would be more than double”.
“China hasn’t made the pivot [to a consumer-led economy] because it hasn’t had to,” says Setser, a former economic policy official in the Obama and Biden administrations.
In tracing the origins of China’s “exceptionally high savings and low consumption” rate today, the IMF notes “inadequate social spending” as well as earlier changes such as the one-child policy and the “gradual dismantling of the social safety net” in the 1980s and 1990s.
The IMF also points to rapidly rising house prices — forcing people to save more to cover down payments and mortgages. Under Xi, the average price in the Chinese capital increased about 166 per cent(opens a new window).
Last October in an essay published in the CCP’s flagship journal Qiushi, Xi wrote that China should “improve the pension and medical care assurance systems . . . [and] gradually raise the level of basic pension”. But, he added, the “government cannot take care of everything” and warned against “falling into the trap of nurturing lazy people through ‘welfarism’”.
According to Setser, the healthiest path for China to return to a period of sustained growth would be for the consumer engine to replace, in part, the contribution once provided by real estate.

“Programmes to boost consumption and the need to ‘enhance’ consumption are discussed in Xinhua and People’s Daily a few times every week, and during economic policy speeches they always promise to make consumption a much more important driver of growth in the future,” says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University. “But there still is a lot of confusion about how to do it.”

“To really unleash the ‘animal spirits’ of a consumer-led society, you must look at the characteristics of what that means in other nations: it is an aspirational mindset, upward mobility, freedom of communication, shared values that continually change and move into new areas,” he says. “To a nation focused on control, it is antithetical to them.”
To continue the machinery of gdp, Xi will have to focus on consumer spending, this will be his big reforms in the upcoming meet, i also suspect easing of liberalisation into the country, they really need to weaken the family structure and isolate individuals so that the useless economy gets going, but combined with the above article of declining demographics i am curious, how will they manage this?
1) more belt and road, infrastructure is their saving grace
i do not understand their reasoning behind antagonism towards india other than their primitive king and tributary understanding, india was a ready made economy to buy their useless junk and other "hi-tech" items, they pissed that away for no discernible reason other than comparing cock sizes
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Asia Policy Institute has a Center for China Analysis.

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institut ... a-analysis

Could be useful to get many view points.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Important interview with Henry Kissinger on China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=c22YerIiN6I

Key things:
HAK was told by Mao Zedong to keep Japan tied up in US security treaties.
HAK now thinks the US needs to reach out to XJP China as it could lead to instability.
He doesn't like the constant threats as China might react.
It is another thing why he thinks US shouldn't threaten China!

Please folks try to bring something to the table and not just feed!!!
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Please read the. VIF daily China news atleast to be current.

https://twitter.com/vifindia/status/157 ... VSx2w&s=19
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25085
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Do they have a one-volume synopsis of XJP thoughts?
The Party can't abridge anything that the Great Helmsman writes.
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25085
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Important interview with Henry Kissinger on China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=c22YerIiN6I
Key things:
HAK was told by Mao Zedong to keep Japan tied up in US security treaties.
Now, there is absolutely no love lost for Japan in China for over a thousand years. The Japanese have steadfastly refused to be a tribute to the Chinese even though they adopted their culture, calendar and Confucius (the three C's). The utter defeat in 1894-1895 which led to the ceding of Manchuria, Taiwan & Ryukyu to Japan and the later occupation of and atrocities, starting from 1931 until 1945 are seared in the Chinese DNA.

One of the biggest fraudulent parts of CCP's historiography to its people rests on the CCP claim that it single-handedly vanquished the Fascist Japanese from China in 1945. Mao knew that he would eventually require Japanese involvement in the construction of a modern China but would have been mortally afraid of that once again giving Japan a free hand and also incurring the wrath of his people. Hence the request to HAK who equally detested the Japanese.

As late as 2012, Xi told Leon Panetta, "The international community must not allow Japan to attempt to negate the results of the World Anti-Fascist War, or challenge the postwar international order". Of course, Xi had every reason to be so angry because just ahead of his anointment, Japan nationalized the Senkakus and threw a spanner in the works. Xi was asked by the Politburo to handle the situation.

The CCP has to be careful about any unravelling of its carefully constructed lies.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq5nSUXTZaU

Jayadeva Ranade explains the rise of XJP third term



I would say for the West the unthinkable has become the inevitable.

Now both Russia and China have seasoned leaders while US has Biden.

Only France has Macron who has experience.

Biden is launching anti French color revolutions in Francophone Africa and neutering German economy.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Cyrano »

Macron was a M&A wheeler dealer in Rothschild and other investment banks before getting propulsed into presidency. He is an "old big money" and big business puppet. He has done some personal tax evasions etc and these banks and others (even Trump) have dossiers on him that can ruin him in an instant. He is a total sellout, en elite who despises "le peuple mal lavé", speaks with forked tongue and has no spine. He will ruin France by doing Biden's bidding while maintaining a facade of French exceptionalism. No credible opposition leader against him, the rise of green ecology parties in France has bleached out traditional notions of national interest and statesmanship from political thinking.

France has lost all credibility in Africa, has been shunted out of Mali after decades of presence there. Francophone Africa is a mirage of the past.

Sorry but dont count on France :(
Post Reply