Understanding New China after 19th Congress

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 05 May 2018 01:57

I fully support your analysis. It states my thoughts.

Glad we opened this thread when we did.

Please blog this so can Tweet it.

Thanks.

kiranA
BRFite
Posts: 355
Joined: 25 Dec 2016 09:37

Re: The Xi Phenomenon

Postby kiranA » 05 May 2018 04:05

SSridhar wrote:ramana, I have not read that book, 'Third Revolution' yet. All in good time.

But, I will summarize my assessment of the Xi phenomenon.

The fact remains that Mao wanted to consolidate China after the revolution and eliminate threats from the periphery and from inside as well. Though China had wars with Russia, India and Vietnam during Mao's period, it was practically an inward-looking enterprise.

Mao's successor in the party, Deng, wanted to ensure that another Mao-like cult figure did not occupy the seat; removed the party from the task of governance and launched an export-based economy (through SEZs and some privatisation of state-owned enterprises, SOEs). Deng perhaps wanted to establish the Imperialistic China but was practical enough to wait. This was the second revolution. Jiang Zemin followed suit with a second economic revolution when liberalization was accelerated and doing business in China was tremendously eased for non-Chinese enterprises.

Neither Deng nor Jiang felt that they were indispensable. But, Xi has a diametrically opposite approach. Xi has undone Deng's political moves. He *is* the self-anointed cult figure; he has usurped all powers and has become stronger than the Chairman himself; he wants the Party to be ubiquitous - from controlling the government to formulating policies; he wants a consumer-based local economy while not giving up on the export-based economy though there is now realization that the latter is no longer sustainable. If Hu Jintao wanted to relax party's hold on China (which was strongly opposed by Jiang), Xi has gone in the opposite direction and has even surpassed Jiang in making CPC the most authoritative entity. Xi has been a quintessential party man and it was his putting down of the Shanghai corruption scandal in 2005-2006 that catapulted him within the party and to the position he holds now. Even then, he only narrowly beat his opponent, Li Keqiang (the Hu man who is now a dummy Premier). Therefore, it is remarkable that he has accumulated all the power and reached a seemingly unassailable pinnacle today. (Xi has a reputation for being an anti-corruption crusader though he has also used it to smother opposition to him as well.)

Xi's concept of 'China Dream' which he has successfully sold to the CPC as well as the people at large is premised on four pillars, viz., the centrality of CPC, Chinese nationalism (which includes Chinese Pride or, in other words establishing a worldwide Middle Kingdom), launching of a third economic revolution (which includes not only the bread-and-butter BRI but also emerging areas such as AI apart from innovation etc) and fourthly displacing the US as the sole superpower (though the last is couched in terms of military might, modernization etc).

Xi is completely convinced of his belief systems, namely China will & shall be the benign sole superpower and Sinification is the panacea for all ills of the world and his actions would achieve the China Dream for his citizens. He has no compunction in smashing any opposition on the way, in order to achieve that.

But, he is well aware of how some other genuine attempts fell by the wayside and the leader had to exit unceremoniously, especially in the FSU. He is supposed to have expressed Gorbachev's 'glasnost' that led to his downfall in meetings of the inner circles of the Party. That is another reason that he has accumulated all powers, has stuffed all positions with hand-picked loyalists and has made the party stronger. This also underpins his 'social credit' scheme for Chinese citizens. That's the 'centrality of the CPC', his first principle. He is cleverly claiming that the CPC is the natural inheritor of Chinese culture!

As for nationalism, his second principle, it is nothing new. It is something that all Chinese leaders have always attempted. There is a draconian Chinese law in existence for decades now that awards death as the only punishment for anyone who concedes Chinese territory to the enemy. Something akin to Blasphemy in Islam. For a communist country, the number of card-carrying communists is low in China, less than a hundred million. For the Chinese, social-engineered by Confucius and the imperial dynasties, nationalism is thoroughly accepted as an essential part of life and harmony. What Xi has done though, to differentiate his purpose of nationalism, is to effectively intertwine three ideas: his by-now Constitutionally enshrined 'socialism with Chinese characteristics', the need to avenge the 'Century of Shame' and of course, the hoary concept of 'Middle Kingdom'.

Xi's clever economic advisors have suggested to him that the Chinese economic efforts should drastically alter their trajectory as the cost arbitrage effects that so far sustained its export-oriented mass production is irreversibly strained. This forms therefore his third pillar. So, Xi is embarking on three aspects now: domestic consumption-driven economy, knowledge-driven economy and the services sector. All three of them are relatively new to the practices that China had followed so far. Xi has specially focussed therefore on science, technology & innovation.

The fourth, but not the least of the four, is to make China replace the US as the sole pole. Xi has dished out deadlines too for various milestones. His deadline for this replacement is 2049, the hundredth year of the establishment of Communist China. Deng & Jiang might have entertained the very same idea too, but they never showed it. Xi is brash about it and that is another significant difference.

Simply put, no Chinese leader before him has undertaken such sweeping changes both domestically & internationally, not taken so many enemies all around, and not so openly attempted to establish the worldwide dominance of China. That's the third revolution.


Xi phoenmoenon to me stems from more confidence among Chinese in their political system. They removed the restriction of two terms (that restriction doesnt exist in a vast majority of countries anyway. dont forget Xi still needs to be re-elected.) Regarding their economic and international goals i just see them as logical corollary of chinese economic maturity . I dont think Xi or China has ever a public goal to replace usa as superpower. I doubt they have any such goal. but what they do want right now is to eliminate US ability to impose any limitations on chines growth.

kiranA
BRFite
Posts: 355
Joined: 25 Dec 2016 09:37

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby kiranA » 05 May 2018 04:31

I say i doubt chinese really have a goal to replace us because chinese have shown in past that they are quiet happy to play along as long as usa accords china the same priveleges it accords itself. Chinese are enthusiastic participant in UN P-5 regime, NPT regime, and generally opposes expanding of these regimes to include any other countries. So as long as Us is willing to break bread china will happily play along. I think ball is in west court now - will they accomodate china like "honorary whites" japan or work to limit it is their choice. But both are tough and both may not last. China is just too big for both of them. Lets see.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23283
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 05 May 2018 09:09

kiranA, IMO, if we don't recognize China as an imperial power in the garb of a socialist/communist country, we are making a grave error. No Imperial power has ever been satisfied with status-quo, more so in China's case. We have discussed all this in the other thread on China.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 65279
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Singha » 06 May 2018 10:09

IBNLive

Washington: The United States on Saturday scolded China for attempting to impose "political correctness" on American carriers by asking them to classify Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau as Chinese territories.

A sternly worded White House statement excoriated Beijing for the demands, which it termed "Orwellian nonsense."

"President Donald J. Trump ran against political correctness in the United States," it said. "He will stand up for Americans resisting efforts by the Chinese Communist Party to impose Chinese political correctness on American companies and citizens."

The statement added that the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration sent a notice to 36 foreign air carriers, including a number of American carriers, on April 25, asking them to comply with Beijing's standards

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 65279
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Singha » 06 May 2018 10:11

China is no more a communist country than india is, infact india runs more communist type redistributive income, subsidies and other freebie schemes than china does. we are more commie than china. just ask any friendly chinese guy what is the prevalence of low grade cancers there and how little the govt helps price control such essential meds....cheen visitors to india buy some meds OTC or ask indian friends to procure. i know this from having helped one such with 60k worth of meds in one shot for his mother.

china is best classified as a authoritarian, mercantile, expantionist, technocratic imperial power ruled by a select set of tyrants. infact the next incarnation of the roman empire. I would not say ottoman, because that was a heriditary scheme , its more roman and non-heriditary in that whichever of the elite is the strong one in the top table "senate" gets to rule next. just as successful generals and leaders like ceaser, augustus, hadrian, trajan with the support of the legions could somewhat bend the rules and reduce the collective powers of the senate to become a "emperor" , so too has it been in china with mao, deng, li peng, and now Xi.

as did the roman army it uses auxiliaries from the sinic & islamist barbarian ecosphere for forward skirmishing, light cavalry, scouting, raiding, FUD spreading roles.

america is all of the above, but in a far more milder, diffused format and one that guarantees the basic rights of most of its citizens at the street level. using education, media, soft power to shape things internally more than police and draconian laws. one can say it is china evolved some 10 levels forward in a more benign Imperium :D and thats is why people flock to its riches and not to china.

being rootless mercenaries, some of the islamist auxiliaries of cheen like TSP also do the same role for the american imperium..sometimes they learn the game through long service and become empires in their own right ..... none understand the inner weakness of empire more than its mercenary vassals ..... by giving these bloody noses to the HQ on carefully chosen occasions, the vassal assets his strength, unpredictability and keeps the money flowing into his auxiliary coffers. the pakis no doubt are expert at this game with the US and China.


The Battle of the Teutoburg Forest (German: Schlacht im Teutoburger Wald, Hermannsschlacht, or Varusschlacht, Italian: Disfatta di Varo), described as the Varian Disaster (Clades Variana) by Roman historians, took place in the Teutoburg Forest in 9 CE, when an alliance of Germanic tribes ambushed and decisively destroyed three Roman legions and their auxiliaries, led by Publius Quinctilius Varus. The alliance was led by Arminius, a Germanic officer of Varus' auxilia. Arminius had acquired Roman citizenship and had received a Roman military education, which enabled him to deceive the Roman commander methodically and anticipate the Roman army's tactical responses.

Despite several successful campaigns and raids by the Romans in the years after the battle, they never again attempted to conquer the Germanic territories east of the Rhine river. The victory of the Germanic tribes against Rome's legions in the Teutoburg Forest would have far-reaching effects on the subsequent history of both the ancient Germanic peoples and the Roman Empire.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7000
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby JE Menon » 06 May 2018 11:42

^^A very interesting and useful view there GD. Thank you for posting it.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4071
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby hanumadu » 13 May 2018 02:25

What Keeps Xi Jinping Awake at Night
The recent trade dispute between China and the United States has brought new attention to China’s zeal to become technologically self-reliant. The book shows that Mr. Xi was determined that China master its own microchips, operating systems and other core technologies well before this recent quarrel. In two speeches — in July and August 2013 — Mr. Xi pointedly said that Western domination came thanks to technology.

“Advanced technology is the sharp weapon of the modern state. An important reason that Western countries were able to hold sway over the world in modern times was that they held the advanced technology. You cannot buy the truly core technologies. It’s been aptly put that ‘The sharpest weapon of a state should not be revealed.’”

“Our technology still generally lags that of developed countries, and we must adopt an asymmetrical strategy of catching up and overtaking, bringing our own advantages to bear. In core technological fields where it would be impossible for us to catch up by 2050, we must research asymmetrical steps to catch up and overtake. Internationally, if you don’t have the advantage of core technologies, you don’t have the political momentum. We must make a big effort in key fields and areas where there is a stranglehold. The same applies to the military.”


What Sun Tzu tactic is it that you pick up fights with everybody when you are decades away from achieving parity in technology with them and dependent on them for advanced technology?

So even with all the stealing of technology, China will still need time till 2050 to be self sufficient in technology.

Pulikeshi
BRFite
Posts: 1464
Joined: 31 Oct 2002 12:31
Location: Badami

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Pulikeshi » 14 May 2018 12:22



Eleven’s two pronged attack - consolidation at home and super aggressive abroad described well.

What I am not sure has been covered in detail by most analysts is the need for growth % due to a declining demographics in China.
Wonder if all the strategyms attributed to Chinese Mandarins really boils down to -
AI cared for old folks paid with interest and pensions from 3rd world via third revolution, thereby Eleven gets to keep drinking gin!

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 65279
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Singha » 17 May 2018 07:06

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/were-br ... from=home-

BEIJING: Kayrat Samarkand says his only "crime" was being a Muslim who had visited neighboring Kazakhstan. On that basis alone, he was detained by police, aggressively interrogated for three days, then dispatched in November to a "reeducation camp" in China's western province of Xinjiang for three months.

There, he faced endless brainwashing and humiliation, he said in an interview, was forced to study Communist propaganda for hours every day, and chant slogans giving thanks and wishing long life to President Xi Jinping.

"Those who disobeyed the rules, refused to be on duty, engaged in fights or were late for studies were placed in handcuffs and ankle cuffs for up to 12 hours," he said. Further disobedience would result in waterboarding or long periods strapped in agony in a metal contraption known as a "tiger chair," he said, a punishment he said he suffered.

Between several hundred thousand to just over 1 million Muslims have been detained inside China's mass "reeducation" camps in the restive province of Xinjiang, Adrian Zenz of the European School of Culture and Theology in Korntal, Germany, said in a report released Tuesday. Zenz is a leading authority on the current crackdown in Xinjiang.

In a region of 21 million people, including 11 million Muslims, the number of those he reports to be detained would be a significant proportion of the population, especially of young adult men.

Emerging accounts of the conditions in these camps make for chilling reading.

"China's pacification drive in Xinjiang is, more than likely, the country's most intense campaign of coercive social re-engineering since the end of the Cultural Revolution," Zenz wrote, referring to the chaos unleashed by Mao Zedong in the 1960s.

"The state's proclaimed 'war on terror' in the region is increasingly turning into a war on religion, ethnic languages and other expressions of ethnic identity."

China has blamed violent attacks in Xinjiang in recent years on Islamic extremists bent on waging holy war on the state, with radical ideas said to be coming from abroad over the Internet and from visits to foreign countries by Uighurs, the region's predominant ethnic group.

In response, Beijing has turned the entire region into a 21st-century surveillance state, with ubiquitous checkpoints and widespread use of facial recognition technology, and has even forced Muslims to install spyware on their phones that allows the authorities to monitor their activity online, experts say. Long beards and veils have been banned, and overt expression of religious sentiment is likely to cause immediate suspicion.

In an extension of the already pervasive program of human surveillance, more than 1 million Communist Party cadres have been dispatched to spend days on end staying in the homes of (mostly Muslim) families throughout Xinjiang, according to a report by Human Rights Watch released this week, where they carry out political indoctrination, and report back on anything from the extent of religious beliefs to uncleanliness and alcoholism.

"Muslim families across Xinjiang are now literally eating and sleeping under the watchful eye of the state in their own homes," said Maya Wang, senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch. "The latest drive adds to a whole host of pervasive - and perverse - controls on everyday life in Xinjiang."

But reeducation camps that appear to have opened all across the region have sparked the greatest global concern.

Samarkand said 5,700 people were detained in just one camp in the village of Karamagay, almost all ethnic Kazakhs and Uighurs, and not a single person from China's Han majority ethnic group. About 200 were suspected of being "religious extremists," he said, but others had been abroad for work or university, received phone calls from abroad, or simply been seen worshiping at a mosque.

The 30-year-old stayed in a dormitory with 14 other men. After the room was searched every morning, he said, the day began with two hours of study on subjects ranging from "the spirit of the 19th Party Congress," where Xi expounded his political dogma in a three-hour speech, to China's policies on minorities and religion. Inmates would sing Communist songs, chant "Long live Xi Jinping" and do military-style training in the afternoon, before writing an account of their day, he said.

His account was corroborated by Omir Bekali, an ethnic Kazakh who was working in a tourism company in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, until he was arrested by police on a visit to his parents in the village of Shanshan in March 2017. Four days of interrogation, during which he was prevented from sleeping, were followed by seven months in a police cell and 20 days in a reeducation camp in the city of Karamay, he said. He was given no trial, he said, nor granted access to a lawyer.

He described a day that would begin with a flag-raising ceremony at 6:30 a.m. followed by a rendition of one or more "red" songs praising the Communist revolution. After breakfast, inmates would spend 10 minutes thanking the Communist Party and Xi for providing everything for people, from food and drink to their livelihoods.

Inmates had to learn the national anthem and red songs, he said, as well as slogans condemning the "three evil forces" of separatism, extremism and terrorism.

"There were so many things to recite, and if you couldn't recite them, they wouldn't allow you to eat, sleep or sit," he said. "They brainwash you, you must become like a robot. Listen to whatever the party says, listen to the party's words, follow the party."

Some inmates committed suicide, he said.

Both men said the food was poor, with meat rare and food poisoning not uncommon. Inmates were sometimes forced to eat pork, forbidden in Islam, as punishment, while Bekali said those accused of being "religious extremists" were also forced to drink alcohol.


Bekali, 42, had emigrated to Kazakhstan in 2006 and become a Kazakh citizen, and said the Kazakh government eventually won his release. Samarkand said he was allowed to leave for Kazakhstan to join his wife and children after having his house and savings, worth about $190,000, confiscated by the government. He was given 500 yuan, equivalent to $80, by police at the border as he departed.

Both men, interviewed by phone, are now in Kazakhstan.

Although the Chinese government has officially denied the existence of these camps, Zenz gathered evidence of 73 government procurement and construction bids valued at more than $100 million, along with public recruitment notices and other documents, pointing to the establishment of camps across the region.

He dates the onset of widespread detentions to March 2017, and a government campaign of "de-extremification" through education. That followed the appointment of Chen Quanguo as party secretary in Xinjiang in August 2016, and his transfer from Tibet, where he oversaw a similar program of intense social control, surveillance and securitization.

Many procurement bids, Zenz noted, mandate the installation of comprehensive security features that turn existing facilities into prisonlike compounds, with walls, security fences, barbed wire, reinforced security doors, surveillance systems, secure access systems, watchtowers, and guard rooms for police.

"While there is no published data on reeducation detainee numbers, information from various sources permit us to estimate internment figures at anywhere between several hundred thousand and just over one million," Zenz wrote in a report first published by the Jamestown Foundation.

"The latter figure is based on a leaked document from within the region's public security agencies, and, when extrapolated to all of Xinjiang, could indicate a detention rate of up to 11.5 percent of the region's adult Uighur and Kazakh population."

Bekali said he met doctors, lawyers and teachers in the camps, while Radio Free Asia (RFA) has reported that wealthy businessmen, 80-year-olds and even breast-feeding mothers have been among the detainees.

One of the most well-known detainees is a Uighur soccer player, Erfan Hezim, 19, a former member of China's youth soccer team and now a forward for Chinese Super League team Jiangsu Suning. Hezim, also known by his Chinese name Ye Erfan, was detained in February while visiting his parents in Xinjiang, according to RFA, on the pretext that he had visited foreign countries, although he had reportedly traveled abroad only to train and take part in soccer matches.

Also detained have been dozens of family members of journalists from the Washington-based RFA, who have been at the forefront of reporting on the deepening crackdown in Xinjiang and the reeducation camps. At least two of the affected reporters, both naturalized U.S. citizens, have reason to believe their family members were detained directly because of their reporting, RFA said.

In one report, RFA quoted a Chinese official as justifying the widespread detentions in blunt terms.


"You can't uproot all the weeds hidden among the crops in the field one by one - you need to spray chemicals to kill them all," the official was quoted as saying. "Reeducating these people is like spraying chemicals on the crops. That is why it is a general reeducation, not limited to a few people."

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 18 May 2018 03:35

KiranA wrote:1) Xi phoenmoenon to me stems from more confidence among Chinese in their political system. They removed the restriction of two terms (that restriction doesnt exist in a vast majority of countries anyway. dont forget Xi still needs to be re-elected.) Regarding their economic and international goals i just see them as logical corollary of chinese economic maturity . 2) I dont think Xi or China has ever a public goal to replace usa as superpower. I doubt they have any such goal. but 3) what they do want right now is to eliminate US ability to impose any limitations on chines growth.


M replies:
1) XI JinPing usurping all authority comes from insecurity of the Chinese communist system. Its fear that drives this consolidation. They see the change approaching it and want to be in control as it changes them. So they have gone back to the only model they know of the Empire.

2) Xi JInPing in his speech has been very clear that is their goal and he gave time and milestones to be achieved

3) Yes this is short term goal to achieve 2)

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 18 May 2018 03:37

GD, So Xi JinPing China's solution to the Muslim extremism is to indoctrinate with Communist re-education programs just like in Mao's time.

kiranA
BRFite
Posts: 355
Joined: 25 Dec 2016 09:37

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby kiranA » 19 May 2018 04:14

ramana wrote:
KiranA wrote:1) Xi phoenmoenon to me stems from more confidence among Chinese in their political system. They removed the restriction of two terms (that restriction doesnt exist in a vast majority of countries anyway. dont forget Xi still needs to be re-elected.) Regarding their economic and international goals i just see them as logical corollary of chinese economic maturity . 2) I dont think Xi or China has ever a public goal to replace usa as superpower. I doubt they have any such goal. but 3) what they do want right now is to eliminate US ability to impose any limitations on chines growth.


M replies:
1) XI JinPing usurping all authority comes from insecurity of the Chinese communist system. Its fear that drives this consolidation. They see the change approaching it and want to be in control as it changes them. So they have gone back to the only model they know of the Empire.

2) Xi JInPing in his speech has been very clear that is their goal and he gave time and milestones to be achieved

3) Yes this is short term goal to achieve 2)


Thanks for your response, Ramana . Here is what I think:
1) "Insecurity" is just a speculation to me unless you are aware of any concrete stuff. There is nothing in modern China which supports that - the country is far richer economically, stronger militarily, advanced technologically, made great progress in diplomacy, resolved all land borders(except India), and is getting its way on sea borders. SO insecure about what ? OTOH when these term limits were introduced China was much more insecure nation..it just emerged from cultural revolution, it was poorer than India, and Deng felt the governance should be different to Party. But now the Party is more confident than ever and it wants government to align with Party as it is government which is more corrupt now.
2. ) All of the goals just talk about results to Chinese people that he plans to deliver. China has no agenda to export its governing model either through violence or through influence. It has shown no desire to impose its sense of morality on other nations. So in what sense you mean super power ?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 31 Oct 2018 21:25

The economic slowdown coupled with the tariff war with US is bring signs of cracks in China.
Today Bloomberg mentioned that China's equivalent of PMI is at 50.2 with 50 being dead even.


Reuters Link

Second China is considering economic stimulus

Third experts are blaming China central banking authority for the large over capacity and current NPA mess.

Fourth more importantly
Beijing Uty Academic Pulls up China Economic Model


Chinese Economic model for the first time has come under criticism from none other than a professor of Peking University.

On October 23, Zhang Weiying, a professor at Peking University, who is also regarded as a liberal scholar, published an article entitled “Understanding the World and the Chinese Economy” on the official website of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University.



Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12133
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Suraj » 01 Nov 2018 00:03

Generally, one month manufacturing PMI data anywhere is far too noisy to see any trend out of. As such, it is not useful. However, historical data IS useful, and the latest data does fit the trendline well:
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data:
Image
The chart is notable in a few ways:
1. a mid year slump leading to the holiday season is unusual
2. The entire 2018 so far seems to be a slow drop in PMI, as opposed to a noisy up and down MoM figure that simply suggests that one-month data is simply far too high frequency to spot an accurate trendline.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 01 Nov 2018 00:29

However JP Morgan Private Capital manager was worried to speak on Bloomberg this morning.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 16 Nov 2018 05:19

Two news related to Xi Jinping's new China struck my interest.
1) A NPR report about travails of Pakistani men married to Uighur women due to the open borders and the Chinese authorities detaining the women when the return to Xinkiang. Apparently due to the common border after China took over COK, a lot of Pakistani traders went to Xinkiang and married local women and went back to Pakistan. After the recent crackdown on extremists, these women are being held. Pakistan is not taking any action or protest as it is beholden to China. So the men complaining to NPR women correspondents and this is publicized as one more atrocity by China.
2) There was a BBC report that 15 countries gave notice of human rights violations by China in Xinkiang.


From all these I see the Dragon has swallowed a Snake which is biting it from inside.

Uighur extremism is Pakistan fed. Going on since 1963.
Its not recent.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23283
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 16 Nov 2018 08:44

ramana, Uyghur issue is home-grown. Pakistani state policy or even Islamist religious parties have not supported the Uyghur struggle.

The issues you are referring to are happening in the last six months or so after Xi was re-elected in October 2017 and decided to vigorously implement the 're-education programme' for the Uyghurs. The Pakistanis have had interaction with the Uyghurs through Baltistan for long but that increased manifold only after CPEC kicked-in and Pakistani businessmen began visiting Uyghur areas in large numbers and social interaction skyrocketed.

The only group that hosted, trained and supported the militant Uyghurs was Tahir Yuldashev & Juma Namangani-led IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan). IMU was established in 1998 with base in Afghanistan to launch attacks into Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Strictly speaking, this is not a Pakistani terrorist group, but because it operates in Af-Pak and was a part of the 'bad Taliban', it has been attacking the Pakistani state as well.

Hafiz Saeed or Masood Azhar was never involved with the ETIM. The PA saw to it that its pro-Sarkari terrorists never got entangled with China. The 'bad Taliban' like the Ghazi brothers of Lal Masjid or TTP were, however. That's why China created so many blocks against Hafiz Saeed from coming under 1267 sanctions and continues to offer stiff resistance on behalf of Masood Azhar. the Lal Masjid action by Musharraf that precipitated such a violent backlash within Terroristan was because of China reading the riot act to the General. The 'bad Taliban' were created because of that single act.

The reason why PA took action in North Waziristan (Zerb-e-Azb) was also due to (apart from the Peshawar Army School attack or the earlier Karachi Airport attack) the demands from China to eliminate IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) from Pakistani territories because it was the IMU that was sheltering the ETIM.

Xi Jinping's fist visit to Xinjiang was marred by Uyghur separatists, knife-wielding ETIM jihadis killed dozens in Kunming Railway Station (March 2014) and an SUV carrying Uyghurs exploded in Tienanmen Square (October 2013) right under the benign face of Mao with smoke billowing for some time, especially with Gen. Kiyani visiting there on the very same day on his 'farewell visit'.

The Chinese traced all these to Pakistan, demanded stern action and read the riot act. The incoming Raheel Sharif had no choice but to act in North Waziristan.

China wants to be friendly with LeT & JeM leadership. Way back, a decade back when Qazi Hussain Ahmed was still alive and leading the Jama'at-i-Islami, China invited him to Beijing and entered into an MoU with him. It does not want these groups to extend any help to ETIM and China has succeeded in that effort. Unlike TTP, Hafiz Saeed's LeT is a far more formidable organization. They also come handy in terror operations against India. So, China stands to gain from a genial relationship with them, a task facilitated by the PA.

Of course, the September,2017 BRICS joint communique at Xiamen referred to, "Taliban, ISIL/DAISH, Al-Qaida and its affiliates, including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir" as terror groups. But, even subsequently, China continues to block the UNSC demand for including Masood Azhar in the 1267 List! May be, China had to make an exception at Xiamen (after resisting so vehemently at Goa in 2016) because it had to concede to the demands of India as a quid-pro-quo for it to include other groups of interest to it such as Daesh, ETIM, IMU. It did put up stiff resistance on behalf of Hafeez Saeed too earlier but ultimately had to budge. So are China's efforts at FATF. It appears that it wants to protect the 'leadership' even if the organization itself is listed. It is playing a complex diplomatic game but the underlying truth is that it has, in the process, staved off any collusion between Pakistan-based pro-sarkari jihadi terror groups and the Uyghurs.

IMO, with the extinction of 'bad Taliban', ETIM has practically disappeared. There has never been any state or support by people-at-large for the Uyghur struggle from Pakistan. Not so far.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 16 Nov 2018 10:18

SS
Thanks for the education.
What I don't understand is the Uighur initial Islamization that started much earlier. The 1998 surge is built on the earlier base.

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3590
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby hnair » 07 Dec 2018 09:32

Despite having a lot of threads on China, we dont have a "China watch" thread yet, which looks at deep social issues and social trends. So posting this here

Award-Winning Photojournalist Disappears In China, And Here Are 21 Of His Pics China Don’t Want You To See

The images are haunting and shows the misrule of a few engineering and military types....

A select few by the Chinese Govt persecuted photographer, that shows the status of a country that shows off only its Shenzen or Shanghai:

Image
The photographer won at the 2004 World Press Photo competition for his exposure of “AIDS villages”, where people 678 people got infected with HIV after selling their blood. Out of 3,000 people, 678 have contracted HIV and 200 have died.


Image
(Laseng Temple has an over 200-year-old history, which includes the study of Mongolian medicines. It was seriously polluted by the surrounding factories, so few pilgrims go there now. Image credits: Lu Guang)

Image
(Families such as this one have sold almost everything valuable in their home to help meet medical expenses. Image credits: Lu Guang)

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 10 Dec 2018 23:13

HNair, We can use this as a China Watch thread.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 15 Dec 2018 02:22

I am not seeing any tight analysis of the PRC woes in the tariff skirmishes here.
All these will slow down Xi Jinping but not stop him.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23283
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 18 Dec 2018 09:37

The following infographic, produced by Fairbank Center, is excellent.

This infographic explains the role of each Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) member in the economic governance of the country, as well as the responsibilities of the country’s top economic officials, who mostly reside under the State Council (China’s central cabinet).

Image

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23283
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 18 Dec 2018 09:47

ramana wrote:All these will slow down Xi Jinping but not stop him.

Xi's China is facing multiple headwinds presently, Tariffs, BRI backlash, action against its technology companies (Huawei, ZTE) et al. Unless Xi's Dreams are seen dented by these concerted worldwide actions and some pain is felt by the masses, and unless the Hans feel that Xi's China is reckless causing them problems, there is not much likelihood of Xi being stopped. The PSC is largely his stooges. He has both the Party and the Military under close control, especially after the 19th Congress. He knew that most powerful countries would counter-attack and he wanted no turmoil on the home front as he prepared to take them on. That Congress really paved the way for more Chinese aggression.

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3590
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby hnair » 18 Dec 2018 10:24

Crossposting:

This is something that needs to be followed closely. Xi's neat little solutions to the Uighur problem is playing right into the hands of western Great Gamers. India's messy, long drawn out but more sustainable methods is not even a remote option for Xi's strongman approach surrounded by military and engineering kind of advisers. Same limitations that Kaiser and Hitler had.

hnair wrote:ASPI has a good report of concentration camps run by Chinese govt.

Two of the 28 Uighur Concentration Camps that China operates (from this article):

1) Uighur Concentration Camp - Khasgar

(This one is huge and is in Khasgar proper vicariously called )


2) Uighur Concentration Camp - Artux, North-East of Khasgar, over the ridge
39°38'34.9"N 75°59'38.1"E
Artux, Kizilsu, Xinjiang, China

Image
(This image is old - there is a sprawling bunch of newer detention center buildings that came up since 2016. There is another camp-like facility close by)

The Chinese government last month launched what it calls a “vocational education and training program” to assist residents with a poor command of the national language and limited educational opportunities.

“Its purpose is to get rid of the environment and soil that breeds terrorism and religious extremism and stop violent terrorist activities from happening,” said Shohrat Zakir, chairman of the Xinjiang government, in an interview with China’s official news agency Xinhua.

The program, he said, targeted petty criminals who were given free food and board over the duration of their training. :rotfl: a few hundred-thousand petty criminals exist in Xinjiang...

The Chinese government’s publicity blitz also included a 15-minute report on state television which showed Uighur detainees in the Hotan City Vocational Skills Education and Training Centre attending legal classes, participating in games and social activities and undertaking training in garment manufacturing and woodwork.

“It’s a crass propaganda video that anyone who knows Xinjiang would not find credible,” said Dr James Leibold, an associate professor in politics and Asian studies at La Trobe University.

After years of frustration in winning the hearts and minds of disaffected ethnic groups, Dr Leibold believes Beijing has ditched its multicultural approach in favour of cultural “mingling”, or assimilation.

The prevailing party ideology dictates that social harmony can only be achieved with the “standardisation of human behaviour”.


There is no info about torture, human experimentation and slave labour that must be happening here. Because of possible disruptions to American supermarket supply chains, a vast network of concentration camps are being kept from media scrutiny.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20989
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Prem » 18 Dec 2018 10:53

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... fficulties
Stocks Slide As Xi Speech Disappoints: "China May Face Unimaginable Difficulties"

Hope was high for Xi to highlight potential new reform measures, growth initiatives, and - what the markets want most - moar stimulus,He instead offered none of the above, choosing a propaganda-heavy discourse on the Communist Party's contributions to the success of China.But warned that:
"China may face unimaginable difficulties ahead"The speech was dominated by role of the party in developing modern China
Says the party has led China on a "soul stirring journey".“China has demonstrated the vitality of scientific socialism with indisputable facts.”
There was no concrete message from Xi's speech either on the trade friction with the U.S. or growth prospects for 2019."No one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what should or should not be done,"Xi likens China's current stage of development to swimming midstream in a river or climbing half way up a mountain:"There is no turning back."On reforms, Xi warned:"The road of reform and opening are becoming more steep, but we must go forward with conviction, commitment and confidence."On globalization, Xi talked about a "new form of international relations."There should be no "bullying" and there should be respect for different development models.China "will never seek hegemony," Xi says, but we note that China is expanding influence, however, in regions such as the South China Sea, where it has built islands and put military emplacements on them.
“We will resolutely fight an uphill battle to prevent and defuse major risks, lift people out of poverty, and prevent and control pollution,”
Xi closed on the same heavy Communist and Marxist evangelism theme, by saying that China is in the process of:Standing up,Getting rich,Growing strongAnd remember, China is "standing tall and firm in the East."

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23283
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 18 Dec 2018 14:29

Blogspot accompanying the Infographi posted above

As China marks 40 years of Reform and Opening Up, the Fairbank Center presents a visualization of China’s contemporary economic governance. Building on our previous infographic on China’s Leaders of Party and State, this infographic explains the role of each Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) member in the economic governance of the country, as well as the responsibilities of the country’s top economic officials, who mostly reside under the State Council (China’s central government).

The Premier of the State Council, by law, is in overall charge of the State Council bureaucracy. Vice Premiers, including the first-ranked Vice Premier with a PSC seat, and State Councilors, have specific areas of responsibility (分管领域) represented by their assigned ministry-level organs.

Each Vice Premier (and sometimes State Councilor) is also in charge of key policy initiatives that often require the participation of ministers overseen by other Vice Premiers (and/or other PSC or Politburo members if they fall outside the economic bureaucracy). In these cases, a coordinating body (议事协调机构) is usually established and chaired by the person in charge. In other words, even though most ministers are assigned to a specific Vice Premier or State Councilor who have primary oversight over them (which is how they are displayed in the infographic), ministers also report to other leaders for specific tasks. An office of the coordinating body is usually placed within a relevant ministry, which is overseen by a chair or vice chair to manage the day-to-day affairs of the body.

For example, the State Council Leading Group on Advancing the Development of Small and Medium Size Enterprises is chaired by Vice Premier Liu He, and has its office at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which Liu himself oversees. One of the three Vice Chairs of the group is the Minister of Finance, who is overseen by Han Zheng. The 19 members of the group consist of vice minister-rank officials, who represent a variety of government bodies that could impact the development of SMEs.

In the infographic, the heads of the “constituent organs” (i.e. the ministries and commissions”) of the State Council (国务院组成部门) are displayed if they are overseen by a Vice Premier or State Councilor with an economic portfolio. Ministries like defense and foreign affairs are omitted because they are overseen by other Politburo or PSC members. Due to limited space, only some heads of the ministry-rank “directly subordinated organs” of the State Council (国务院直属机构) are displayed. A “*” is placed next to an organ if its minister/head does not concurrently serve as its Communist Party Secretary.

The rest of this blogpost gives a brief overview of the new CCP decision-making commissions. In particular, it profiles each of the leading economic officials, including the key initiatives they are in charge of, and the other State Council coordinating bodies they lead.

Under the Xi-era governing slogans of “the party controls all” (党管一切) and “top level design of policy” (政策顶层设计), economic decision-making seems to be concentrated in several CCP commissions chaired by Xi. Some of these commissions were upgraded from “leading small groups” in 2017 or 2018. Commissions are represented by gray circles in the infographic, along with adjoining symbols that denote leadership roles.

In economic governance, the CCP-CC Commission on Comprehensively Deepening Reform seems to be the most important commission. It has three PSC members — Li Keqiang, Wang Huning, and Han Zheng — as vice chairs, and one PSC member, Wang Huning, as Office Director (believed to an extension of his role as Director of the CCP-CC Policy Research Office). The five meetings of the commission have issued guidance on issues ranging from aid to the homeless, to the establishment of specialized internet and financial courts in select locations. (Links to 1st meeting, 2nd meeting, 3rd meeting, 4th meeting, and 5th meeting).

Another important body is the CCP-CC Finance and Economics Commission, traditionally the most relevant “leading small group” in economic decision making. The only vice chair is Li Keqiang, but both Wang Huning and Han Zheng serve as members. Politburo member and Vice Premier Liu He serves as the Office Director (办公室主任) of the commission, overseeing day-to-day affairs. This, along with his already expansive portfolio as Vice Premier and close relationship with Xi, positions Liu He at the center of the “top-level design” of economic policy.

Unlike other recent first-ranked Secretaries of the CCP-CC Secretariat, Wang Huning may be more involved in economic policy through his roles on the CCP-CC Deepening Reform Commission and as the Director of the CCP-CC Policy Research Office while playing a reduced role in party organization. Wang was one of three PSC members (along with Wang Yang and Han Zheng) present at the meeting that Xi Jinping hosted for private business leaders in Beijing on November 1, 2018 to reassure them of his personal support.The propaganda system under Wang oversees the Cyberspace Administration of China (also known as the Office of the CPP-CC Commission on Internet Safety and Informatization, with the commission chaired by Xi Jinping), which enforces online censorship.

A new CCP-CC Audit Commission was also created and held its first meeting in May 2018. Li Keqiang and CCDI {CCDI is the name of the anti-corruption department} Secretary Zhao Leji are the vice chairs. The Auditor-General of the State Council serves as the Office Director. In the latest government restructuring in March, the National Audit Office gained the power to audit key national investment projects, execution of the central government budget, and the economic responsibilities of state-owned enterprise (SOE) executives. These powers were previously dispersed across several ministerial bodies. This new commission most likely oversees the expanded responsibilities of the Auditor-General’s Office.

Membership of these commissions beyond their chairs and vice chairs has not yet been revealed, but based on past precedence the Vice Premiers should be members of at least the Deepening Reform and Finance and Economics Commissions. It is also unclear what the exact relationships are between these commissions and the PSC, traditionally the highest decision making body within the CCP.

Despite not being formal members of these commissions, other PSC members (and former PSC member, current Vice President Wang Qishan), also exert influence on the economic governance of the country, either personally or through the organizations that they oversee.

Key Economic Officials — Who’s in Charge of What?

Li Keqiang 李克强, PSC Member, Premier and CCP Secretary of the State Council

In charge of:

“Overall responsibility” for China’s economic bureaucracy
State Council constituent organs not reporting to Vice Premiers or other PSC/PB members: State Council General Office; National Audit Office
Provincial governors

Key initiatives: (has overall responsibilities for economic policy/initiatives; specifically chairs committees on):

Energy (with Han Zheng as Vice Chair); Revitalizing the Northeast (with Han Zheng as Vice Chair); Develop the West (with Han Zheng as Vice Chair); climate change (with Han Zheng as Vice Chair); and science and technology (with Liu He as Vice Chair).

Han Zheng 韩正, PSC Member, Vice Premier and CCP Vice Secretary of the State Council

In charge of:

Ministries: National Development and Reform Commission; Finance (i.e. government budget); Natural Resources; Ecology and Environment; Housing and Urban-Rural Development
Other key ministry-rank organizations (not exhaustive): State Administration of Taxation
Other initiatives: government restructuring; energy; food safety; statistics

Key initiatives:

Pollution Control: part of the “Three Tough Battles” (三大攻坚战) declared by Xi in his report to the 19th Party Congress with goals to significantly reduce pollution by 2020 and increase forest coverage.
“Belt and Road” (一带一路): worldwide development initiative for China-led infrastructure projects and trade.
Regional Development Projects: key projects include:

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development: disperse populations and institutions that are not essential to Beijing’s function as the national capital to surrounding areas, and build the region surrounding Beijing into a more sustainable and integrated megacity.
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area: integrate the development of Hong Kong and Macau with that of Guangdong, including building more transportation links and supporting Shenzhen’s role as an innovation and technology hub.
Yangtze River Economic Belt: promote sustainable economic development of the major city groups along the Yangtze River corridor from Shanghai to Chongqing.

Sun Chunlan 孙春兰, PB Member, Vice Premier

In charge of:

Ministries: Education; National Health Commission; Veterans Affair
Other key ministry-rank organizations (not exhaustive): General Administration of Sport
Other initiatives/areas: healthcare reform; AIDS prevention; aging

Key initiatives:

“Healthy China 2030” (健康中国 2030): improve the health and health awareness of the Chinese population, reduce healthcare costs, and build a healthcare system capable of supporting a rapidly aging population.
“Double First Class Universities” (双一流大学建设): build a select group of Chinese universities into world leading “first class universities” with “first class (academic) disciplines.”

Hu Chunhua 胡春华, PB Member, Vice Premier

In charge of:

Ministries: Agriculture and Rural Work; Commerce; Water Resources; Human Resources and Social Security
Other key ministry-rank organizations (not exhaustive): General Administration of Customs
Indirectly through State Councilor Wang Yong: Ministry of Emergency Management; Ministry of Civil Affairs?; State Administration of Market Regulation?
Other initiatives: natural disaster management; rural workers; import expos; food safety (chaired by Han Zheng)

Key initiatives:

Poverty Alleviation: part of the “Three Tough Battles”; lift ~30 million people in China out of poverty by 2020, and eliminate rural poverty.
Trade aspects of the Belt and Road Initiative

Liu He 刘鹤, PB Member, Vice Premier; Director, Office of the CCP-CC Finance and Economics Commission {US educated economist}

In charge of:

Top level design of economic policy and economic policy coordination as the Office Director of the CCP-CC Finance and Economics Commission
Ministries: People’s Bank of China {the Reserve Bank of China}; Industry and Information Technology; Science and Technology; Transportation
Other key ministry-rank organizations (not exhaustive): China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission; China Securities Regulatory Commission; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Chinese Academy of Engineering
Indirectly through State Councilor Wang Yong: State Council State-Owned Asset Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC); State Administration of Market Regulation?
Other initiatives: industrial safety; small and medium size enterprises

Key initiatives:

Financial Risk Mitigation: part of the “Three Tough Battles”; reduce debt levels and prevent systemic financial risks in the economy while maintaining stable growth.
Innovation and Industrial Policy: increase domestic design and manufacturing of advanced technology components to ensure Chinese leadership in new technology areas like robotics and artificial intelligence. Encourage and finance innovation, including through initiatives like Made in China 2025.
State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Reform: fulfill Xi Jinping’s vision of building “stronger, better, and larger” SOEs that are internationally competitive and can lead the development of key technologies. Core aspects of the current reform agenda include consolidations, reforms in governance, compensation, and experimenting with “mixed-ownership,” i.e. encouraging more private investment in central and local SOEs.
Major International Economic Relations: e.g. chairing the U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (and managing the ongoing U.S.-China Trade War) and the China-Europe High Level Economic Dialogue.

Xiao Jie 肖捷, CCP-CC Member, State Councilor, Secretary-General of the State Council

In charge of:

Ministries: State Council General Office
Chief of staff to Premier Li Keqiang
Other initiatives: government restructuring (chaired by Han Zheng); open government

Wang Yong 王勇, CCP-CC Member, State Councilor

In charge of:

Ministries: Civil Affairs; Emergency Management
Other key ministry-rank organizations (not exhaustive): State Council State Owned-Asset Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC); State Administration of Market Regulation
Other initiatives: anti-trust; IP protection; people with disabilities; SOE reform (chaired by Liu He); industrial safety (chaired by Liu He); natural disaster management (chaired by Hu Chunhua); food safety (chaired by Han Zheng; co-vice chair by Hu Chunhua); government restructuring (chaired by Han Zheng; co-vice chair by Xiao Jie).

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 18 Dec 2018 23:11

SS That blog post replicates exactly the purpose of this thread I started a year ago.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 18 Dec 2018 23:12

X-posting for completeness...
ramana wrote:SS, I came to some conclusions on the events in 1970 to 80s. And where it leads to 2000 decade.

IG never wanted Siachen glacier. Occupying that feature is a protect Ladakh measure for IA.

Congress from her time wanted to give that area to Pakistan as a CBM to China to assure them of Tibet.
That is why it was uncharted or un-demarcated in 1972.

Don't ask proof, data but it boiled up in my mind thinking over the past 40 years history where Congress mostly has talks with Pakistan and first topic is Siachen.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2116
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Dec 2018 01:42

^^ramana guru, you raised an important point, never thought that it goes back to IG days. My memory goes only back to the mountain of piece MMS gobar which led me to BRF monitor pages. It was always touted as "uninhabitable argument" for "thenceforth north"

Points by posters highlighting and pointing maps. Need of being us there, counterarguments by others saying that no need. Lurked here for close to 8 years, reading the news headlines on the main page only, later to migrate to BRF forums.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 19 Dec 2018 04:02

Describing China occupation of 'not a blade of grass grows' Aksai Chin was a CBM for Tibet occupation.
But got carried away by rhetoric.

The fear of China is ever present in Congress circles.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 19 Dec 2018 04:24

PDF link to the Infographic on Xi JinPing New China.


https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/infogr ... overnance/

Would suggest print in 11/17 or Tabloid and hang on the wall.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18385
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby chetak » 19 Dec 2018 13:35

ramana wrote:Describing China occupation of 'not a blade of grass grows' Aksai Chin was a CBM for Tibet occupation.
But got carried away by rhetoric.

The fear of China is ever present in Congress circles.


which is exactly why the offshore BIF guys want Modi out.

The pakis, lootyens NGO/missionary gang and the hans will be the primary beneficiaries. The MEA babudom is filled with such grovelling, obsequious and han pleasing zeros who cannot wait to prostrate themselves at every given opportunity.

Cut off as they are from their post retirement sinecures, pappi jhappi sessions, 5 star circuit, single malt fuelled track thoo soirees.

Modi standing up to the hans, flipping off the pakis, burying the NGOs in the FCRA avalanche has put paid to their freeloading and black income generating enterprises.

However, along with the congi fear of the han, its only the congis who also understand best the pakis, and their two faced taqiya mentality. They are privy to things that have been compromised to the detriment of India during the discussions in 1947, discussions that would have involved the pakis, the US and the UK.

The US and the UK have been mollifying the pakis since 1947, the disastrous IWT, the 93,000 paki POWs exchanged without any gain to India, beediland liberated and again without gain to India. Tibet is inextricably tied up in all this as is arunachal pradesh, the uncontrolled conversion of the NE and the separatist movements there that are being run and funded from the outside.

The danger comes from those offshore entities who are quietly but urgently insisting on a quick Indian compromise on cashmere and the mafia is inextricably tied into such entities.
Last edited by chetak on 19 Dec 2018 14:02, edited 1 time in total.

kancha
BRFite
Posts: 873
Joined: 20 Apr 2005 19:13

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby kancha » 19 Dec 2018 13:59

China’s Crisis of Overconfidence: The Diplomat

Exactly 40 years ago, on December 18, 1978, the Third Plenum of the 11th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) opened in Beijing. The event marked the formal kick-off of the country’s “reform and opening” policy, and the beginning of its extraordinary rise as a global economic power.
.
.
But China’s leaders seem in danger of forgetting one of the most crucial lessons emerging from the pre-reform period and the calamity of the Cultural Revolution  —  that the country can only move forward if it rejects the fatuous and self-aggrandizing language of power, and embraces the open exchange of ideas and information.
.
.
In April 2013, less than a year after Xi came to power, the General Office of the Chinese Communist Party issued an internal communiqué with a list of taboos for all institutions, including the media. The list included a warning against “the West’s idea of journalism” and freedom of the press, which it said was meant to “oppose the Party’s leadership in the media, and gouge an opening through which to infiltrate our ideology.”
.
.
In recent months, as it has become embroiled in a trade war with the United States, China has tried to dial down the hype over its economic and technological feats. Amazing China was pulled from store shelves, and in a series of commentaries in July, the Party’s official People’s Daily warned against the pitfalls of “boastful and arrogant” discourse. At a gala dinner in early December, China’s deputy chief of mission in Washington, Li Kexin, also tried to backtrack on the bluster, telling his audience that nationalism and the Chinese media bore much blame for overblown notions of China’s geopolitical strength.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2116
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Dec 2018 14:58

^^chetak sir, to be fair, not all congoons, esp patel & Shastriji, were bif or their founding fathers (read nehru dynasty). Some of them had to live during the constraints of their time, same as ABV. But true the rot runs deep.
As for UK, and later US, Pakis were a hedge against India and India against china. Apart from their human rights crap to vilify their oppponents viz., Nazi/Fascists or soviet block. They had no intention of upholding any moral standard or a fair world order. The status quoist regime of USA is right because it favors US bloc. Free Movement of goods and services was good (only until china started to pull the rug below their feed ) and people was never fine (read Trumpistan, britain for all its highnosedness was always like that)

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18385
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby chetak » 19 Dec 2018 15:28

ArjunPandit wrote:^^chetak sir, to be fair, not all congoons, esp patel & Shastriji, were bif or their founding fathers (read nehru dynasty). Some of them had to live during the constraints of their time, same as ABV. But true the rot runs deep.
As for UK, and later US, Pakis were a hedge against India and India against china. Apart from their human rights crap to vilify their oppponents viz., Nazi/Fascists or soviet block. They had no intention of upholding any moral standard or a fair world order. The status quoist regime of USA is right because it favors US bloc. Free Movement of goods and services was good (only until china started to pull the rug below their feed ) and people was never fine (read Trumpistan, britain for all its highnosedness was always like that)


ArjunPandit saar,

Patel, Shastri and even IG, though congoons, were obviously cut from a different cloth. A common thread of unalloyed patriotism ran unmistakably through them. IG though patriotic, was some other things as well, given her love for her sons.

These three are not usually counted amongst the BIF lot.

The role of MKG is as yet uncertain but he certainly is not what they say he was. He was more brit than was warranted. I wonder..........

JLN was the first of the BIF. He was led by the, errr nose, by edwina and played for a patsy by the brits via dickie, with the all pervasive brit colonial office dominating the background, playing the puppet master and cashmere is a huge case in point as were his foolish views on hyderabad. He was encouraged by dickie to take it to the UN despite being told by brown skinned Indians not to do so. Patel rectified one mistake but could not undo the other one.

jinnah was an incidental beneficiary who lost his way, consumed and blinded by his virulent ambition to be the ruler of an undivided and independent India and he very foolishly overplayed his weak hand. He wanted to be the emperor of a new mughalistan and look at what he finally ended up with, a moth eaten pakistan, his own description as well as an admission of the disaster that he himself had created.

One wonders as to what the brits and the amerikis had promised him.

jinnah died a bitter and broken man, as indeed, did JLN himself.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 19 Dec 2018 20:17

Arjun Pandit, I hope to pass on some lessons to our members.
"All generalizations are general including this one"

Taking one or two exceptions to an argument is a typical Indian trait.
Its from tarka shastra to argue for argument sake.
And English education reinforces that with speech and debate and elocution training in high school.

Most discussion get derailed by clever folks who want to find the hole in the otherwise acceptable argument.
So what did you get by point out the short lived tenures of Patel and LBS to the grand narrative?
Its like saying Emperor Julian was not the same ilk as Emperor Constantine.
Doesn't matter he died in four years and failed to reverse the Christianization of Rome.
Same with these two eminent leaders. Their effect on the political course of nature was little.
What did those two achieve in their short lived power? Very little as it was swamped by the Nehru-Gandhi family.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 19 Dec 2018 21:01

Arjun Pandit wrote
As for UK, and later US, Pakis were a hedge against India and India against china. Apart from their human rights crap to vilify their oppponents viz., Nazi/Fascists or soviet block. They had no intention of upholding any moral standard or a fair world order. The status quoist regime of USA is right because it favors US bloc. Free Movement of goods and services was good (only until china started to pull the rug below their feed ) and people was never fine (read Trumpistan, britain for all its highnosedness was always like that)


I think being the victims of Partition which tore asunder our motherland and imposed Westphalia nation state construct on an non-Christian land, we are missing the forest for the shrubs not even trees.


All the following is my thinking:

To understand Partition and why Nehru, the last Englishman agreed to, we need to go back to geopolitics as stated by Mackinder.
Mackinder sees the world divided into two great island continental land masses just like Sanjaya described to Dhrithrashtra the world is "two peepul leaves and a rabbit".

Of these two land masses, since evolution of man from the long distant past Americas (peepul leaves) never played a role in geopolitics except in the 20th century due to the European world wars. So it was always the great land mass of Eurasia, which was a whole till the spread of Christianity and Islam, that played the major role in world history : culture, civilizations, religions, trade, economy, war. Orthodox Christianity spread eastwards in Russia mainly to combat Islam and end the periodic invasions by Central Asian tribes. (World war I finished Islam as a political power.)
So in other words Russia controlled the Asian land mass which is important to Europe.

In summary Mackinder says Eurasia is a world island.
And it is controlled by Eastern Europe : historically Prussia, Austria and Grand Duchy of Muscovy. Now called Germany, Austria/Central Europe, and Russia.

Coming back to Indian sub-continent, by creating Pakistan, the West was limiting or containing the southern spread of Russia and preventing the linkup to India. This way the World island domination is managed.

And Nehru agreed to that as basically he was English in mind and thought.

Now fast forward to end of Cold War.
Suddenly Soviet Union collapsed and out of the ashes rose old Russia with a strong Czar Putin.

If you see his political moves, first consolidate Russia, manage Germany, link up with China and ensure India's autonomy is viable. (Power reactors, Arihant etc.)***

The only thing blocking the historical drive south is Pakistan.
Now see the moves to engage Taliban and Pakistan in that context.
- In Russian interest Pakistan should be a client state or better yet dissolve.
- Indian interests is same too.
- However China interest is to retain a hedge against India.
That is failing as Indian power grows 10x to Pakistan, they cannot contain India unilaterally. hence the two front war bokwas. It will be just one front with multiple theaters.
- US or West interest is i) support Pakistan to stop Russian drive South and ii) hedge India.
Already Europe is changing its thinking about the way they managed the 250 years of rise of Eastern Europe. This is the real Thucydides trap. Europe destroyed itself to contain the rise of Eastern Europe. And hedging India loses its goal when US wants to contain China!!!
Also US misread the Great Game. The GG was to protect the crown jewel of the Western economic status, India from falling to Russia. US targeted India for the last 60 years and continues and is thus losing the Great Game.

*** Putin also used psyche warfare and exploited the hamartia in US political landscape. See the utter disarray in US politics even after two years.

Extra thoughts:
To challenge Mackinder's land based strategy Mahan created the Ocean strategy and proclaimed its the Indian Ocean that is the center of the world movement of peoples, ideas etc. This idea is backed by Peripelus who wrote the travelogue Erythraean Sea in the ancient Greek world

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periplus_ ... hraean_Sea


This Mahan thesis was adopted by Theodore Roosevelt when he developed the US Navy as a Ocean Fleet.
War against Imperial Japan was a result of this contest of Oceans.

And drives US occupying Deigo Garcia and now plans to Christianize the Andamans.

Also Ombaba always referred to Indian Navy as a Sea going Navy that means Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Trump on the other hand embraced the Ocean going fleet for Indian Ocean mission.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18385
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby chetak » 19 Dec 2018 21:42

ramana saar,

The sweep and depth of your thought processes are indeed impressive.

It also gives rise to a platform from which further study may be undertaken and who knows where the threads may reach when fleshed out.

you may have already read it but I would recommend Gerry Kearns's

Geopolitics and Empire: The Legacy of Halford Mackinder

About mahan, you are spot on but be aware that mahan's writings also had some religious underpinnings which may have somewhat coloured it.

Then again, its the writings of mahan that are indeed driving all the countries that are contesting the hans aggressive hegemony of the seas, including the hans themselves.
Last edited by chetak on 19 Dec 2018 21:49, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 51382
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 19 Dec 2018 21:49

No I havent read that but will do so. I have Mackinder original paper.

All American thinking is Xian based. Even the founding.
Military invokes Xian god during formal ceremonies.
Truly Templar ethos.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests