Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Dipanker
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Dipanker » 12 Mar 2018 19:57

pankajs wrote:Got you.

Google chacha has Mumbai GDP @ $416 billion at present. So by 2030 Mumbai should at least be @ 3rd or 4th position if not higher.

As you pointed out, Britshit still haven't come to grip with the loss of the *Crown Jewel*.



Google Chacha also list GDP of state of Maharashtra as $390 billion, so unless the rest of the Maharashtra GDP is $390b - $416b = -$26 b, one of the figure is wrong, easy to guess which one.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 12 Mar 2018 19:58

China steps up “feel good” diplomacy with India - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
China on Monday stepped up the on-going messaging between Beijing and New Delhi, highlighting a steady improvement in their post-Doklam ties.In response to a question, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang, said during his routine briefing that China had noted “positive remarks by the Indian side.”

Mr. Lu was apparently referring to observations by Raveesh Kumar, the spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs.

Positive vibes

In response to positive remarks by China’s Foreign Minister regarding the prospects of Beijing-New Delhi ties, Mr. Kumar had said on Friday that India was “willing to work with the Chinese side to develop our relations based on commonalities while dealing with differences on the basis of mutual respect and sensitivity to each other's interests, concerns and aspirations.”

He had added that as “two major countries and large economies, relations between India and China are not just important bilaterally, but also have regional and global significance.”

Mr. Lu, in his response, stressed that during his annual press conference on Thursday, the Chinese Foreign Minister had “elaborated on China's basic position on its relations with India.”

“We wish to work with Indian side to take the important consensus between the two leaderships as our guidance to improve our mutual trust, enhance mutual beneficial cooperation, manage our differences and ensure the correct track of our relations' development,” Mr. Lu observed.


Dragon and elephant as friends

During his media conference, Mr. Wang had said in response to a question on the flurry of visits by the Chinese and Indian officials after the 73-day Doklam military standoff in the Sikkim sector that, “The Chinese dragon and the Indian elephant must not fight each other but dance with each other. If China and India are united, one plus one will not only include two, but also 11.”

Mr. Wang and Chinese state councillor Yang Jiechi had visited India in December, in the backdrop of the post-Doklam meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the September summit of the BRICS countries in the Chinese coastal city of Xiamen. Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale had visited China last month for talks with top officials.

Track-1 meetings lined up

A string of track-1 meetings are now in the offing, including the China-India strategic economic dialogue next month, which is likely to be preceded by visits to India of Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan and of Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister in the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 12 Mar 2018 20:34

Actually it makes zero sense for China to try and tie India down beyond a point, because "tying" a nation down means conflict of various types. If I list out the points of opposition and gandugiri that China has promoted with regard to India - this is what I get (I may have missed a few)
    Territory grab (Aksai Chin)
    Territory dispute (Arunachal Pradesh)
    Support to Pakistan
    Support to terrorists in Pakistan and in the north east
    Antagonism to allowing India into NSG
    Loud protests at anything seen as against China.

Trade wars is a different thing - but everything in the list above could actually lead to armed conflict and given the way wars work - no matter how India does China cannot come out "victorious" and unscathed given the current balance of military power.

Military conflict is not going to happen (as long as India keeps its forces ready to fight China, as it has been doing since 1962)

But constant needling of India on issues that could lead up to military confrontation actually forces India to build up its military to make it painful for China and that reduces the value of the pressures that China can apply on India.

When I was doing my String of fake pearls video Linked above) I realised that the Chinese have virtually zero chance of dominating in the Indian ocean and projects like Gwadar and Myanmar are useless peanuts. China's most sensible option would have been to co-opt and cooperate with India. They chose Pakistan and that will grind to a halt as a useless exercise.

If China had actually asked for Indian ocean bases and resupply using agreements with India - they would have been in a different league with respect to their own energy security

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 12 Mar 2018 21:06

Dipanker wrote:
pankajs wrote:Got you.

Google chacha has Mumbai GDP @ $416 billion at present. So by 2030 Mumbai should at least be @ 3rd or 4th position if not higher.

As you pointed out, Britshit still haven't come to grip with the loss of the *Crown Jewel*.



Google Chacha also list GDP of state of Maharashtra as $390 billion, so unless the rest of the Maharashtra GDP is $390b - $416b = -$26 b, one of the figure is wrong, easy to guess which one.

True that!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby panduranghari » 12 Mar 2018 21:10

yensoy wrote:Now who are the net losers from financial point of view? The Chinese people who have put in their savings into miserably yielding bank accounts (or risky shadow banking accounts), the Chinese people who are overpaying for property whose supply is constrained and controlled by crony moguls, and once again the Chinese people who are being forced to contribute to a social security system of dubious finances.

All this is great as long as GDP keeps rising - people's salaries will trend up, their ability to pay down their mortgage will improve. It may even survive a temporary flattening of the GDP since not everyone is going to need access to their savings right away. But if there is a sustained period of slow, no or negative growth, then the sh!t will hit the fan.

And nobody is more aware of all this than the Chinese people who, if circumstances permit, are voting with their feet - moving their wealth and even families to Western shores. It's the rich Chinese whose wealth sources are primarily in China who are moving out, not only the middle class with aspirations and ambitions to succeed in a foreign land.


Yensoy ji,
I do agree with your argument above. However, Chinese shadow banking sector is not the cause of the people saving money outside the system. It is the effect of it. Shadow banking is not like what we imagine the small micro finance we talk about in Indian subcontinent. This funds a lot of very big business who are dubious at best. Everyone is in it. How do you think the buildings are being built when no one is buying them and living in them?

Chola ji,
I do not need to tell you how fractional reserve banking works, you already know it.
Image

Government gets its money by taxation and return on investments. Rest is printed at will. You are aware that the Chinese maintain a peg with USD. Its the policy of PBoC to maintain this peg through thick or thin. USD travels globally and lubricates trade. The emmision from the US federal reserve increases the money supply globally. If China maintains a peg, then China has to account for all those USD which go to other countries too. This is a huge number. And here in is the source of the money needed for investments (or malinvestments as I think we should call it). The best way to understand the USD flow is to look at LIBOR. As LIBOR rises so does the shortage of USD. This has an effect on the banking sector including the Chinese shadow banking.

Chola wrote:So just saying Cheen has debt is a simple but false argument because it takes great wealth in the first place to be able to loan yourself (and others, in China’s case) that money.

Money cannot magically appear for a government to provide debt to money losing endeavors. If Cheen is building out a 100+ blue-water surface fleet and still has another couple of trillions to throw at OBOR then their economy has to be able to support it.


This is what the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) crowd say. These MMT econonmists were advising Sanders and they still say all this with a straight face. Its patently wrong and is horseshit.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 13 Mar 2018 07:13

China has, according to an article I read yesterday - 350 million people earning less than $5 per day.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SaiK » 13 Mar 2018 07:17

^that is the only way to defang China.. infusing democracy and having these 350 million go up against commie regime

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Mar 2018 07:36

China: Reading the tea leaves - Business Line
The Chinese are apparently conditioned to be acquiescent. The Communist Party of China (CCP) tells the people what work they can do and interprets history as a tool to design nationalism and patriotism. With a membership of 89.45 million, how does it manage to rule 1.3 billion people?

Having been ruled by emperors for 2000 years, maybe the Chinese are accustomed to it; now the CCP could be another dynasty with a different name. China grew economically and geographically when ruled by the Mongols and the Manchus. Modern China under Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping has been rising aggressively. Do we see any similarities between the Mings, Qings and Pings? Now, Xi Jinping has cleared the path to continue as emperor, indefinitely.

Absolute control

CCP control over governance is absolute, having penetrated into villages with one official for a thousand population. All government departments have a party branch, and the secretary dictates policies. Provincial governors are appointed by the party and party secretaries wield great power in governance, often intervening in decision-making. The ‘Tiao Tiao Kuai Kuai’ system is popular: by this horizontal party supervision is shown to be more important than vertical government supervision. Even the right to represent the working class in the resolution of disputes is retained by the CCP.

More than 30 million people died in the great famine of 1959-61. Local leaders exaggerated grain production figures to project a communist Utopia and forcibly procured grains to show large turnover. Communist propaganda led the people to dream of surplus produce and they even ate up the grain seeds. Millions died of starvation but party control was so strong that peasants were not allowed to even dream of a protest. Most city residents were not even aware of it.

Currently, communist governments exist only in China, Vietnam, North Korea, Cuba and Laos. Many other countries went through a democratic transition. Will there ever be such a transition in China? Some leaders worry about it because:

• The Soviet Union collapsed after 74 years of communist rule. The CCP will complete 74 years in power in 2023.

• Urbanisation, increased literacy and social media may popularise democratic values.

• Increase in per capita incomes, growth of the private sector and a burgeoning middle class are catalysts for a transition.

• Taiwan and Hong Kong reflect Chinese democratic aspirations.

Possibility of change

China came closest to a democratic transition in the late 1980s, when Taiwan, South Korea and the Soviet Union went through the same. Many moderate senior leaders tried to bring in reforms which were forcibly suppressed by Deng Xiaoping and the PLA and the leadership which came to power since then.

CCP Document No 9, 2013, the ‘Communiqué on Current State of the Ideological Sphere’, forbade propagating viewpoints that challenged CCP rule.[Xi Jinping was responsible for this document in c. 2012 before becoming the President formally in c. 2013]
These included ideas such as:

• Western constitutional democracy is attempting to deny the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

• ‘Universal values’ ridicules the ideological and theoretical basis for party rule.

• ‘Civil society’ deconstructs the social base for party rule.

• ‘Neo liberalism’ derides state control of the economy.

• ‘Western news views’ challenge the party’s control over media.

• ‘Historical nihilism’, which denies the history of CCP and new China.

As the likelihood of democratic dreams fulminating is greatest from the rising middle class, the party has entered into a ‘social contract’ with them.

They are appeased for not insisting on political reforms. The middle class works with the party, with many of them joining the party. Private entrepreneurs provide material advantages to official patrons and exploit the leverage .

The CCP’s most powerful tool for control, the ‘hukou household registration system’, classifies all citizens as agricultural or non-agricultural. State welfare programmes distinctly favoured non-agricultural hukou holders as the party thought they were more likely to protest.

Non-agricultural hukou holders were not allowed to move to cities or obtain residency permits and found it difficult to progress socially and economically.

The question now is whether the Chinese people will remain subjugated forever? Will an ageing population, an adverse Gini coefficient, and awareness arising out of globalisation prod the people to demand a role in governance?

The CCP dynasty under ‘Emperor’ Xi is very powerful but can we forget the collapse of the Roman and Mongol empires?


The writer is faculty member of the National Defence College, New Delhi


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby yensoy » 13 Mar 2018 10:33

Dipanker wrote:
pankajs wrote:Got you.

Google chacha has Mumbai GDP @ $416 billion at present. So by 2030 Mumbai should at least be @ 3rd or 4th position if not higher. As you pointed out, Britshit still haven't come to grip with the loss of the *Crown Jewel*.


Google Chacha also list GDP of state of Maharashtra as $390 billion, so unless the rest of the Maharashtra GDP is $390b - $416b = -$26 b, one of the figure is wrong, easy to guess which one.


Even if we take the low end of the band, $390b as 2017 GDP of MH of which let's estimate Mumbai to be 50% (it is probably a lot higher) that is $195b or 140b UK pounds. With a lowball GDP growth rate of 5% per year, it puts Mumbai upwards of 250b UKP; it should very much be on the list.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 13 Mar 2018 13:42

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/ ... qeFJ8pX7qC

China’s naval presence deterred Indian intervention in Maldives crisis: sources
BY SANJEEV MIGLANI AND SHIHAR ANEEZ
REUTERS
MAR 8, 2018
ARTICLE HISTORY
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NEW DELHI/COLOMBO – A Chinese naval combat force that entered the Indian Ocean for the first time in four years may have helped deter an Indian intervention in the Maldives after its pro-China president imposed a state of emergency, according to military and diplomatic sources and analysts.

India has traditionally been the biggest player in the tiny island chain 400 kilometers (250 miles) to its south, and faced calls from Maldives’ opposition leaders last month to use force against President Abdulla Yameen to restore democracy.

After the state of emergency was declared, India — which sent troops to foil a coup in the Maldives three decades ago — moved aircraft and ships to its southern bases and put special forces on standby, two military sources in New Delhi said.

But in the end Prime Minister Narendra Modi held off from hard action, unwilling to entangle the military in a foreign country of 400,000 people, the sources said.

Beijing’s signals that it would not look kindly on any foreign involvement in the Maldives — where it is investing millions of dollars as part of its Belt and Road Initiative — backed up by its naval presence in the eastern Indian Ocean, may also have weighed against an intervention, security analysts said.

China’s defense ministry said its ships carried out routine exercises. “These drills were normal exercises for this year, and not aimed at any third party,” the ministry said in a statement to Reuters, when asked whether the maneuvers were linked to the crisis in Maldives. It did not elaborate.

Beijing’s foreign ministry said it was paying close attention to events in the Maldives and had asked the government in the capital, Male, to protect Chinese interests there.

India’s defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment. A naval official confirmed the Chinese ships entered the Indian Ocean, but said they were thousands of miles away from the Maldives.

“The Indian navy has a robust maritime domain awareness and we have a clear picture of the happenings in the Indian Ocean Region,” the official said.

Details of the deployments by India and China, as well as diplomatic messages from Beijing that have not previously been reported, show how the Asian giants flexed military muscles as crisis unfolded in the strategically located region.

Both militaries have since backed off, and last week Vijay Gokhale, India’s top diplomat, made an unscheduled visit to Beijing where the two sides discussed ways to address their “differences on the basis of mutual respect and sensitivity to each other’s concerns, interests and aspirations,” the Indian foreign ministry said. It did not give more details.

Liu Zongyi, a South Asia expert at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the People’s Daily in January that Yameen’s tilt towards China had caused unhappiness in New Delhi.

India had been infuriated with the signing of a free trade deal with China last December, he said, adding: “The political unrest in the Maldives in actual fact is a power struggle with international factors.”

Chinese flotilla

At the end of January, a Chinese navy “surface action group” — which included an amphibious Type 071 vessel for troops to make a marine landing — quietly crossed into the Indian Ocean through Indonesia’s Sunda Straits.

It was the first time such a force had entered the area since an exercise by a similar group in 2014 in the eastern Indian Ocean that raised concern in India about Chinese motives behind conducting amphibious drills.

Thousands of miles away in the Maldives, Yameen — long criticized for running his Muslim majority nation with an iron fist — rejected a surprise Supreme Court decision on Feb. 1 to free political dissidents.

Instead, the Maldives’ leader threw the judges too into prison and imposed a state of emergency, saying he was acting to thwart a coup.

Beijing said events in the Maldives were an internal matter and the international community should play “a constructive role” and avoid “further complicating the situation.” Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army posted photos of the warships, whose number had by then swelled to 11, taking part in rescue training exercises, according to Chinese state media.

Some analysts saw a carefully calibrated message from China.

“These are ‘grey zone’ tactics; you don’t raise the level of provocation to a level that the adversary finds a reason to react or retaliate, but you send the message home,” said Abhijit Singh, a former Indian naval officer, at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.

“The message to India was: ‘if you come too close to the Maldives, we are not too far away.’ “

China, whose navy is now four times bigger than India’s, is increasingly asserting itself in the Indian Ocean. It has built a network of friendly ports, its so-call “String of Pearls,” around shipping lanes through which more than three-quarters of its oil moves.

Military manoeuvres

Soon after the emergency was declared in the Maldives, India’s military moved C-130 Super Hercules and C-17 Globemaster transport planes from near Delhi to its Yelahanka air force base near the southern city of Bengaluru, and ordered paratroops to be on stand-by, the two Indian military sources said.

Warships were also put on readiness at the southern naval command in Kochi, they said. A government official dealing with security issues said moving planes and ships was standard operating procedure for the military.

A few days later the Indian navy launched “large-scale operational exercises” in the western Indian Ocean involving 40 warships, including an aircraft carrier. The naval official said these were pre-planned.

Yameen was unfazed, and on Feb. 20 extended the emergency by another 30 days despite international calls not to do so.

A source close to Chinese diplomats in Colombo said that Beijing had told its missions in the region that China stood ready to help Yameen if India tried to unseat him. The source was not clear whether that included military help.

A diplomat at the embassy of the Maldives in Colombo said Beijing had given the same assurance of support to the Yameen government. A second diplomat said China had been dragged into the political crisis by the Maldivian opposition accusing Beijing of seizing some of its islands.

Throughout the crisis, the Maldivian government was in continuous contact with the Chinese embassy in Male and China was informed about Yameen’s every move, including the state of emergency, well in advance, the first diplomat said.

“The Chinese interest is purely commercial,” Maldives’ minister of fisheries and agriculture Mohamed Shainee said. “They have invested a lot and they have to protect their investments.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Mar 2018 14:37

Nirmala to visit China in April - The Hindu
Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday that she will visit China in April.

“Yes, it is going to be probably in late April,” she said in response to questions from presspersons on the sidelines of a seminar on ammunition management in the Army. However, she added that the agenda is yet to be finalised.

Last week, the Defence Ministry officials had denied reports that she was likely to visit China
in the backdrop of efforts from both sides to ease tensions in bilateral relations.

Relations between both the countries have been tense since the 73-day Doklam stand-off last year. Since then China has increased its presence along the border and close to the Doklam stand-off site.

However, in the last two weeks, both sides have announced several steps to normalise the relationship.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 13 Mar 2018 15:11

China’s naval presence deterred Indian intervention in Maldives crisis: sources


As usual nonsense by desi reporters. Which naval presence, the one that is thousands of miles away?

India has no plan to send in military for Maldives domestic political issues. The regime change can be done using the elections.

If new elections brings in the current president again, then not going in would look even better. We would had his supporters and holy warriors blowing themselves up at our soldiers.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 13 Mar 2018 16:47

^^^emergency will be extended till such time that Yameen is sure of his election as president. Once democratically elected, it's Chinese gamble that is paid off.... Maldives is gone.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 13 Mar 2018 17:07

Yes ... Maldives will be gone. :rotfl: where will it relocate to .. South China sea? :shock:

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 13 Mar 2018 17:26

TKiran wrote:Maldives is gone.

Where? This is worrying. I checked the latest images on Google Earth - it was still there but images are from 2017. No 2018 images

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 13 Mar 2018 18:32

^^^Shiv sir, that was sarcasm out of frustration... I am not as cool as you. I would have wanted India to intervene in Maldives and conduct elections, and even if yameen wins, we should give a strong warning not to mess with India, and make him renege on China agreements and all that that a non-pusillanimous powerful country like India would have done. Sorry that I stepped on your toes (sincerely apologize), but it was not meant to be that way.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 13 Mar 2018 18:47

2018 images show a mass of yellow objects,at Male airport and steadily increasing in the atolls.Scientists are not sure whether this is due to global warming,bleaching brown-skinned Maldivians,or whether a deadly disease is rampant across the islands,called "Sino-sitis".This disease is believed to be incurable and like parthenium weed,water hyacinth,lantana,once it invades and takes over,is almost impossible to counter except by burning it entirely.
Sino-sitis is now considered a global pandemic.it is spreading on all continents and is causing the gravest exploitation of food resources,mineral wealth damaging the planet's sustainability.It is particularly adept at soaking up any petroleum products and feats itself on natural gas.Some scientists say that only the delivery of a nuclear device on Beijing destroying the source of the disease,attributed to be issuing from a "King XI",at Zhongnanhai, the centre of the hive of eviltude,will rid the planet of this scourge.

Indians are afeared that the disease which has swallowed up Tibet and threatening to invade Arunachal Pradesh,Bhutan,was stopped just in time at Doklam, and which has already reached the southern tip of Sri Lanka at Htota,will inevitably consume India,already consumed by consumer goods made in Chin.Succumbing to chin consumer goods especially anything electronic,like cell phones,computers,etc. weaksns the resistance to a final fatal takeover of the Sino-sitis virus. The answer our medical experts at the AIMS say,is to avoid anything from Chin at any cost.This will severely impact upon the Sino-sitis invasion of India they claim,and encourage MSME Indian anti-bodies to recover and flourish! Apparently eating out at Indian restaurants serving yellow food is safe as the ingredients are all Indian and the heavy dose of chillies and spice,not found in most of Chin food,protects the stomach from parasitic invasion.Please pass this important message to all your family and friends,Jai Hind!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Mar 2018 18:51

OK, the Chinese landing craft entered the IOR through Sunda; but then, why did it turn back through Lombok the next day itself?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 13 Mar 2018 19:06

TKiran wrote:^^^emergency will be extended till such time that Yameen is sure of his election as president. Once democratically elected, it's Chinese gamble that is paid off.... Maldives is gone.


If the Chinese can pay him to be anti-India, we can pay him to be pro-India. He just needs to name the price.

Till now, I don't understand why he is anti-India. It is not like we kidnapped his mistress. The only reason I can think off is we might have been too openly supportive of the last president. Taking sides in internal politics in a country causes such issues.

We just need to tell him we are not against him and he needs to tell us the number to be put on the cheque.

Ultimately smaller nation cannot make a bigger nation a enemy. This applies for Nepal, Srilanka and Bangladesh as well.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 13 Mar 2018 20:14

The Chin naval flotilla went back because just showing their nose and threatening India with "consequences" was enough for our MEA and security establishment to "blink" first. The state of the armed forces is in awful shape.I came across a report that states that barely 60% of our aircraft are fully operational,etc.,etc. The IN's frontline warships cannot track Chin subs effectively becos of the lack of ASW helos.Then there are ammo shortages and mot enough arty.The infra on our side of the border in the mountains is dismal compared with that of the Chins.A major embarrassment on the ground cannot be ruled out in the Himalayas,as the Chins will strike first and may do so at several places,making it v.difficult for us to counter initially,during which time they could make inroads and hold onto territory captured.Simultaneously ,the Pakis will launch a major terror offensive in the Valley.They would not want to risk a major conflict with India ,but will support the Chins in asymmetric warfare esp. in J&K. Our air force if used would invite Chinese attacks on Indian cities through its LR bombers with LRCMs,or even the use of tactical missiles.N.India has never experienced enemy air raids since WW2,that too only in the eastern sector.A few Japanese bombs saw Madras citizens trembling and evacuation of schoolkids,etc. There would be massive loss of morale if Cal or any other major centres in north or eastern India were bombed.

Unprepared as we are,we chickened out,when it would've been child's play unseating the tadpole tyrant and re-establishing democracy in the Maldives,which would've sent India's reputation globally soaring.The Chinese bluffed hugely and won. In truth,their supply/logistic lines in Tibet are stretched enormously and if a bold GOI used its air force to destroy the road/rail links to Tibet if a spat widened from a mere border incident,thevery status of Tibet as a part of china would be questionable if we announced that it was "COK".Chinese occupation of an independent Tibetan nation.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 13 Mar 2018 20:32

TKiran wrote:^^^Shiv sir, that was sarcasm out of frustration... I am not as cool as you. I would have wanted India to intervene in Maldives and conduct elections, and even if yameen wins, we should give a strong warning not to mess with India, and make him renege on China agreements and all that that a non-pusillanimous powerful country like India would have done. Sorry that I stepped on your toes (sincerely apologize), but it was not meant to be that way.

I see a problem with many indignant viewpoints that have been expressed. Maldives is in no way our special friend. It is yet another nearby country whom we should be threatening if they do stuff that we do not like. However if the President rapes the speakers wife or Zameen replaces Yameen it is no skin off our balls. China warning us was the biggest load of horseshit I have heard. They were 2500 km away with no logistics support. And as Brahm Chellaney tweeted their warning came after India made it clear that we would not interfere. The fact that China was howling shows that they know too damn well that we could have interfered if we wanted - but what the heck? Our friend in the Maldives -the ex president Nasheed is sitting in exile in Sri Lanka making demands about what India should do for him. He has also stated a lot of stuff that is questionable in terms of accuracy. Naturally - he wants to get back in power and as long as India covers his ass he will be thrilled.

I think that we Indians have a weird picture of what India should do in the Indian ocean. No one is our friend. We need not help anyone. We just threaten them or hit them if they act funny, that's all. No point acting like we are Americans bringing democracy.

I think as a nation we behave in a schizophrenic manner. On the one hand we howl and rant crying "we are weak. We are fcued" etc - but on the other hand we demand that India behaves like the typical cowardly bully - simply bashing someone because he is nearby and imagining that by deposing that leader all would be well. All the while we are shitting brix about China but acting as if we are great supapowa with Maldives. This is laughably hypocritical and I think the Indian govt has done exactly the right thing.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ArjunPandit » 13 Mar 2018 20:50

^^phillip sir, while i am also left wondering at the apparent change in china policy, as quoted in media, what you are saying, especially the first paragraph is very speculative. Anyone can come up with counter CT of china has offered us olive branch with US/DT and France besides us

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 13 Mar 2018 20:54

India should attack Maldives because they are weaker. Not attacking is stupid and cowardly. But why doesn't China attack a weaker India? Ah! That is because they are wise.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 13 Mar 2018 21:01

^^
..but but - China can attack at any time?

So we can also attack Maldives any time no?

Naah - we have dropped the ball - we should have attacked when Yameen did his thing.

But why didn't China hit back in Doklam?

Oh they will. They will. Just wait and see.

So China has not dropped the ball?

Are you crazy? China has a cannonball that will head straight at us soon. Actually we dropped the ball. We should have attacked them in Doklam before they built up their forces.

But isn't China much stronger than us? they can screw us in a minute - you said.

Yes but time and opportunity are everything. We could have screwed China and we could have brought democracy to the Maldives. Now we have lost the Maldives. Lost Bhutan. Lost the opportunity. Lost.

But anyway China is much stronger no? They could have kicked us in Doklam and in Maldives no?

No No. That would not have been possible if we had used our brains.

So you mean good brains could make up for all holes we have in our defences?

Yes. If I had been in charge, none of this would have happened.

Oh OK.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 13 Mar 2018 21:04

Indians talking of invasion of India and bombing of Dilli, Kalkatta and Madras ... hai touba ... imagination running wild.

SOoooooo much butt-hurt. I imagine some folks are having to deal with smirking baki or cheenis perhaps. Worse still if those smirking people are Nepalese or Sri lankans or perhaps worst of the lot in the current context .. Maldivians!!

The fear of loosing face can be high I imagine. No wonder people have taken this GOI *inaction* personally and now are conjuring attacks on Dilli, etc. They have my sympathies.

Take some deep breath, do some yoga or simply sleep it off. Tomorrow the sun will still rise in the east.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Rudradev » 14 Mar 2018 02:51

shiv wrote:
...
I think as a nation we behave in a schizophrenic manner. On the one hand we howl and rant crying "we are weak. We are fcued" etc - but on the other hand we demand that India behaves like the typical cowardly bully - simply bashing someone because he is nearby and imagining that by deposing that leader all would be well. All the while we are shitting brix about China but acting as if we are great supapowa with Maldives. This is laughably hypocritical and I think the Indian govt has done exactly the right thing.


The pisko foundations of this behaviour seem to derive in large part from something Shiv has referred to in this post:
viewtopic.php?p=2258334#p2258334

Many of us armchair analysts on BRF derive from the population of "G.K." prize-winning kids of the late 20th century, whose perception of the world was in turn shaped by the "G.K." of the day:
Now if you look at the body of literature that has come from that era - it is still considered true. You will find that the world is divided up into the "advanced west" (includes Japan), the Soviet Union and its bloc, a "rising China" and third world of developing nations India, Africa etc

This is the way Indian scholars look at the world. They have never learned that India too has a place in this world - but they simply cannot place India anywhere because the "academic theories of the world" have no place for India.


"Advanced West" was the paradigm, the US was the anchor-in-chief of the global security order. All-powerful and nobody could challenge it. Everything America did was brilliant and Machiavellian and planned to their own advantage and also fearless. Opening up to China in 1972, winking at Chinese nuke proliferation in the 1980s-90s, bringing China into WTO in the 2000s, making grand proposals for a "G-2" (US/China) co-dominium to run the world in the 2010s, etc. Every word they spoke was from a position of unshakeable strength; it HAD to be. They are America.

When hints slowly begin to emerge that America is getting taken for a ride by China on just about every economic and geopolitical level, this causes immense cognitive dissonance to the "G.K." prize-winners of yore. At some point it becomes impossible to pretend that everything with Pakistan, NoKo, Indo-China Sea, balance-of-trade, the Philippines, etc. is going exactly as America planned.

So the only alternative response, then, is to elevate China as an entity even godlier than god. Recursivity at its best! If America is baap (an axiom never to be questioned) then China must be mega-mai-baap, saar! If they breathe, they breathe fire, and our soldiers across from Dokalam get singed! If they glance at you, their narrow eyes siphon all the oxygen out of your lungs and all the thoughts out of your brain! If they trade, they do so with pure gold pulled out of their rectums at will, and bleddy Indian banias will never, ever have any chance in hell of competing with them!

Note that the people most ardently pushing this line are NOT, ironically, the BRF users who are openly pro-US in their outlook. In fact some of our most devout Russophiles have taken to advocating this point of view most vociferously of all.

It is the fault of the Limca Book of Records, the Bournvita Quiz Contest, the Competition Success Review, and all the source material you had to study to master them.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kiranA » 14 Mar 2018 08:14

shiv wrote:
TKiran wrote:^^^Shiv sir, that was sarcasm out of frustration... I am not as cool as you. I would have wanted India to intervene in Maldives and conduct elections, and even if yameen wins, we should give a strong warning not to mess with India, and make him renege on China agreements and all that that a non-pusillanimous powerful country like India would have done. Sorry that I stepped on your toes (sincerely apologize), but it was not meant to be that way.

I see a problem with many indignant viewpoints that have been expressed. Maldives is in no way our special friend. It is yet another nearby country whom we should be threatening if they do stuff that we do not like. However if the President rapes the speakers wife or Zameen replaces Yameen it is no skin off our balls. China warning us was the biggest load of horseshit I have heard. They were 2500 km away with no logistics support. And as Brahm Chellaney tweeted their warning came after India made it clear that we would not interfere. The fact that China was howling shows that they know too damn well that we could have interfered if we wanted - but what the heck? Our friend in the Maldives -the ex president Nasheed is sitting in exile in Sri Lanka making demands about what India should do for him. He has also stated a lot of stuff that is questionable in terms of accuracy. Naturally - he wants to get back in power and as long as India covers his ass he will be thrilled.

I think that we Indians have a weird picture of what India should do in the Indian ocean. No one is our friend. We need not help anyone. We just threaten them or hit them if they act funny, that's all. No point acting like we are Americans bringing democracy.

I think as a nation we behave in a schizophrenic manner. On the one hand we howl and rant crying "we are weak. We are fcued" etc - but on the other hand we demand that India behaves like the typical cowardly bully - simply bashing someone because he is nearby and imagining that by deposing that leader all would be well. All the while we are shitting brix about China but acting as if we are great supapowa with Maldives. This is laughably hypocritical and I think the Indian govt has done exactly the right thing.


Good, post. malidives is not our "backyard" (whatever that means) but a sovereign country whose internal affairs are none of our business. We can seek to influence them but a regime change with indian troops ? Even USA tries to assemble a coalition before military backed regime changes.

India's influence is clearly waning in its neighbourhood ranging from hindu nepal to budhist sri lanka to muslim maldives. At the same time china's influence is rising. This requires realistic analysis. India needs to accept that these countries are voluntarily seeking good relations with China in the hope it betters their countries. China's recent economic rise and its demonstrated capability in executing large projects make it attractive for these countries.

In my opinion instead of imagining non-existing threats India should just focus on economy and pakistan where India's mass murderes are nicely resting and enjoying retirement. Once our economy is right all these countries may come back to India.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 14 Mar 2018 08:18

>> Even USA tries to assemble a coalition before military backed regime changes.

for powerful foes like iraq yes, not for grenada or panama sized problems - maldives is even smaller and less in limelight.

Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby yensoy » 14 Mar 2018 08:34

Our objective in Maldives is to only ensure that their territory and waters are not used by the Chinese military. There is nothing else for us over there. We have our own islands and beaches. We could care less whether they have democracy, gay marriage, legalized marijuana or sharia (stoned one way or another). They are not large enough to be a threat to us even if they turn 200% wahabi overnight. (It's actually surprising/puzzling how they haven't been used by the Pakis in this regard - maybe we do actively ensure that Maldives remains pest-free or maybe Pakis are disliked/distrusted there as well.)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 14 Mar 2018 09:15

kiranA wrote:
India's influence is clearly waning in its neighbourhood ranging from hindu nepal to budhist sri lanka to muslim maldives.

I actually have a problem with this statement in the sense that it simply rehashes "conventional" statements without examining the truth

We (Indians) somehow imagined that we had great influence over Nepal because they are Hindus. In actual fact we have never had much influence over Nepal because we have never applied the prime currency of influence - that is coercive power. So all this stuff about losing Nepal IMO is balderdash. We have some influence on Nepal - but I will make a footnote of my view on that.

Influence over Sri Lanka is the biggest joke. Once again we have maintained "cordial relations" and think "they are like us" because of certain historic and cultural links. Sri Lankans were contemptuous of Indian in the late 70s and 80s. We represented all that was lousy about Asia. Once again - we have never exerted coercive power over them - except for a short masturbatory foray into Jaffna that was half hearted and ended painfully

Influence over the Maldives is even more tenuous and imaginary. We guys simply do not know what influence means and use the word like a parrot saying "I love rock music'. Influence means "We bark. They jump" Maldivian history has connections with Sri Lanka, China and later Muslims. Yes there are people of Indian origin - but that is not "Indian influence". All we did was a short and well timed military removal of Sri Lankan rebels. When that happened - the Maldives appealed to many nations including UK and USA apart from India. India was (and still is) in the best position to exert coercive power in the Maldives - which we simply never do. We "think" we have influence over the Maldives. We need to think again. So we have not lost anything more than we had. We need to stop deluding ourselves with nonsensical and mythical tales of "influence" which we have never tried to exert.

Footnote: yes we do have some economic and cultural influence over Sri Lanka and Nepal. Perhaps Maldives as well. But let me state the unstated influence we do have - which no one likes to talk about because we are such stupids. We are a huge and powerful nation sitting next to Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. If we choose to kick butt, butt will be kicked. I think all 3 nations realize that perfectly well and I know that such signals have been sent in private. But unfortunately Indian diplomacy behaves like British diplomats at the height of British power. Understated with the veiled threat of violence. We need to get out of that mode and fart loudly in the direction of those who play against our interests. But I believe we are hamstrung by a bunch of leaders who see only USA, Europe and China/Japan as world leaders and India as a nonentity. This idiocy spills over on to us and we also talk like that. Frankly, it's sickening.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 14 Mar 2018 09:28

WRT IOR surveillance question ... A hour back I did not know of CARTOSAT-3 but just remembered the bit about the Info-French IOR Maritime surveillance agreement. Goolge chacha provided the rest of the material for this post once the question about India's current capabilities formed in my mind.

http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/scienc ... 482404.ece
ISRO plans a new high-resolution earth satellite [From 2013]
The Indian Space Research Organisation is to build a remote sensing satellite, Cartosat-3, capable of taking images of the earth with a resolution of 0.25 metres.

Currently, GeoEye-1 produces the highest resolution earth images taken by a commercial satellite. The American spacecraft, launched in September 2008, is capable of taking panchromatic images with 0.41 metre resolution. WorldView-2, another satellite operated by the same company, DigitalGlobe, offers a best resolution of 0.46 metres. However, in accordance with U.S. regulations, commercially released images from these satellites are degraded to 0.5 metre resolution.

DigitalGlobe plans to launch WorldView-3 next year, which will supply images with a resolution of 0.31 metres. Cartosat-3’s camera would better that performance. In the words of one expert, this satellite's images could allow a scooter to be distinguished from a car.

To get an idea of what this means ... lets check an image from WorldView-4 with a resolution of 0.31 meters. This image is of Varanasi, India. Click to fully load the image and check the boats that line up along the waters edge in the middle of the top half. CARTOSAT-3 would be better than this.

https://digitalglobe-marketing.s3.amazo ... 4_30cm.jpg

Image

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 907_1.html
Indian space agency works on next-generation satellite series
The Cartosat-3 series will have around six satellites, some of which would replace existing remote-sensing satellites with more powerful capability.

Add to that this bit from the recent visit of the French president. While the other agreements were highlighted this bit did not get its due it seems to me.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/i ... 037309.ece
India, France join hands for Indian Ocean security
Both sides also announced a vision document on cooperation on a number of space-research related issues, including space security. The space agreement is designed to support joint maritime operations as it will help in maritime surveillance for the Indian Ocean region.
Now, I don't know exactly what this means. It could mean any or many of the below
1. Better resolution cameras for future.
2. Better SAR payload for future.
3. Data sharing on the IOR marine environment from their sats and other feeds.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 14 Mar 2018 11:18

Michael Danby MP
@MichaelDanbyMP
China acquires 10% of Daimler by stealth. Beijing car manufacturer Geely stunned the world when it announced it now owns 10% of Daimler, who own Mercedes Benz amongst other brands (link: http://bit.ly/2FAwHlp) bit.ly/2FAwHlp #auspol

Trilochana
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·
Mar 12
Beijing knew this very well ie Indians sulk but reconcile to their fate (karma) & accept realities n 'reset' relations with China.
MEA now points that Gokhale recommend reset of ties despite #Doklam. China pocketed 000s of sq miles of Indian territory this way.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 14 Mar 2018 11:54

Good to hear that Xina has acquired 10% of Daimler and why shouldn't they. But how that news made it to *this* thread is the question? Inquiring minds want to know if TATA acquiring Jaguar and Land Rover also make it to this thread? How about TATA Tea acquiring Tetley Tea of England? Wouldn't PRC economy related thread have been more appropriate?

Will China acquiring a nail making factory in say America be also posted in Xina related *strategic* thread? The sheer absurdity of some of the posts makes me wonder about the extent of such "mental slavery".

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby adityadange » 14 Mar 2018 12:05

First, there was news mentionening Indian officials to stay away from Dalai Lama's program
Then, someone (Ravish Kumar?) from Indian ministry admired China on economic growth/trade some 3-4 days back. (Cannot remember this correctly and cannot find news reference either. But it was something related to some Chinese minister)
Then in yesterday's news, it was mentioned that Nirmala Sitharaman will visit China next month.
And now this:
"Chinese Have Finally Arrived": Army Chief's Take On Beijing's Strengths

In past few days, it seems the Indian side has started to please the Chinese. What could be the reason?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 14 Mar 2018 12:15

I have no issues with the following
1. Acknowledging China's economic progress in the last 30 years.
2. Acknowledging Beijing's strength in the military domain, at least based on their spending numbers and armament. Forget the quality and training for the moment.
3. Nothing wrong with Nirmala Sitharaman's visit to Beijing.

The point(s) where I have/will have an issue is
1. Dalai Lama's program but as Shiv saar has stated there is clearly no proof of such a directive.
2. Manner in which Army chief is *reported* to have talked about the Chinese military progress. I have no problems with acknowledging the facts themselves. But reporting is much suspect these days in India. His statement on Bangladesh too was taken out of context and spun into something else.

On Dalai Lama and the Army Chief's statement I would wait before passing judgement. Reporting is India is highly suspect to say the least. On the others I have no issues.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 14 Mar 2018 13:29

dr subhash kapila
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@drsubhashkapila
Indian Defence Minister's proposed visit to China at this point in time ILL ADVISED and smacks of China Appeasement. Coming after Dokalam Standoff same connotes India kow-towing China so that China doe not indulge in further stand-offs. STAND UP INDIA. DO NOT CRINGE BEFORE CHINA.

dr subhash kapila
@drsubhashkapila

In one ill advised step of Indian Foreign Secretary of advising leaders and officials not to attend HH Dlai Lama's THANK YOU INDIA event, years of hard work by PM MOdi to generate image of India in Asian capitals as existential counterweight to China stands demolished. IRONIC

dr subhash kapila
@drsubhashkapila

China reahing out to India because it is under intense US pressure and not with any benign long range genuine intentions to establish friendly relations with India. When will Indian policy makers accept reality that CHINA THREAT IS LIVE AND INCREASING MANIFOLD IN 2018

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 14 Mar 2018 13:43

I was expecting someone to make an issue of Nirmala Sitharaman's visit to Beijing. Right on dot ...

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 988381.ece
Three months after Doklam stand-off, Chinese Foreign Minister in India [Published on December 10, 2017]

The matter is expected to come up during a bilateral meeting between External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is presently on a visit to India from December 10-12 for the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, that is taking place on Monday, sources told BusinessLine.
But you say trilateral ... but what about
Later this month, State Councillor Yang Jiechi will visit India to resume the talks on border management with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, both of whom are Special Representatives of their respective governments on border issues.

Does this not, by the same logic, smacks of India Appeasement? What is goose for the sauce is not goose for the chutni???
Last edited by pankajs on 14 Mar 2018 14:15, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 14 Mar 2018 13:43

Imagine if the Pakistani defence minister refused to come to India because he was angry and upset, we would be laughing our guts out because we would have guessed (as we have done in the past) that he would blurt out something stupid that his bosses would not like. But when the Indian defence minister does not go to China it is a sign of defiance? How? I disagree with Dr. Subash Kapila - like I disagree with a lot of "strategeric" experts on various issues.

Too many of these experts - the same same same name have been publishing for 20-30 years and nowadays I often find papers researched by interns who Google and cough up the same clichéd shit that their bosses later publish. We need a complete turnover of our "strategic experts" -

When I was researching for my China-Tibet Railway video I realized that a lot of Indian articles were carrying the same un-researched crap from previous off hand commentators and media report. The situation is pathetic. we basically have no thinkers
Last edited by shiv on 14 Mar 2018 13:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 14 Mar 2018 13:47

While dhoti shivering is not really required as far as 'stlings of pealls' or 'Naval bases' in BD/Lanka/ML etc. but what we really need to do something about is the way Indian babudom and political leaders are shit scared of China. Perhaps, it is the Nehru effect - they are all scared that a 1962 redux will end their political careers? Nothing else explains the pusillanimity when it comes to China. Sometimes, an open dare works better than appeasement. IF the HH Dalai Lama event news is true, then it is disappointing coming from this Government. Why is nobody calling the Chinese bluff is beyond me. They will _never_ attack India. Why waste men & resources - both precious to the Chinese- when the SDRE will bend without force?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 14 Mar 2018 13:51

Chandragupta wrote: we really need to do something about is the way Indian babudom and political leaders are shit scared of China. Perhaps, it is the Nehru effect - they are all scared that a 1962 redux will end their political careers? Nothing else explains the pusillanimity when it comes to China.

Absolutely. But these leaders are informed by ill informed babus who simply become babus by reading the same "Competition success" and other GK books that Rudradev referred to in an earlier post. The blind leading the blind. Strategic thought is absent in India at surprising levels and we are sailing on a few bright sparks here and there.

Like I had pointed out elsewhere our babus behave like British diplomats at the height of British power where open threats were not made but things were done in an understated way - so that the non attendance of a leader would be a big insult to the host nation. I mean how stupid is that. Some bugger does not go somewhere and its an insult? wtf? Sounds like a sort of dance with veiled signalling.

Note that China is a closed society and a lot of idiotic statements come out via Chinese media who get their inputs from wildly inaccurate Indian media. So there will always be background meetings to set the picture right. But the way we interpret it is absolutely ridiculous

a. China told India not to interfere and we got scared and complied - as though we would have interfered otherwise
b. RM going to China "to please them?. I mean what is she going to do - take a troupe of Bollywood dancers? The reason why we the public say such stupid things is because our experts in the media are also saying stupid things.


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