Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[nam]

dr subhash kapila
@drsubhashkapila

China reahing out to India because it is under intense US pressure and not with any benign long range genuine intentions to establish friendly relations with India. When will Indian policy makers accept reality that CHINA THREAT IS LIVE AND INCREASING MANIFOLD IN 2018

The last time China attacked and went back to where it started resulted in Indian Army growing to one of the largest army in the world.

So basically a attack with no major gains caused it to face a permanent threat of a 1 million army in a in-accessible frozen place.

Someone in China must have gone "oh f**", what did we do "

I wonder what big our forces will grow if China decide to do it again.

[TKiran]

^^^^
There's a saying in Telugu, "పోగాలము దాపురించిన వారు దీపనిర్వాణ గంధమును,అరుంధతిని, మిత్ర వాక్యమును, మూర్కొనరు, కనరు, వినరు"

Which means, some people have cognitive impairment, and they can't listen to friends' advice, they can't smell the wick of the light when it is off, they can't see Arundhati star in the sky.

I have been watching Dr. Subhash kapila's predictions for the last 20 years, never his advice went wrong.

Nehru was so blind with his 'hindi chini bhai-bhai', he could not believe that chini backstabbed him, and what is this logic, we will become monster strong when China attacks us?

[shiv]

The fact that the army does not have enough funds was well known in defence circles for a long while. Making it public was a good thing and pointing out that for holding back China more funding would be desirable was some plain speaking which I appreciate. But the fact that there are limits to funding is perfectly well known to the government. the costs of even small campaigns and wars - be it Sri Lanka, Maldives or Surgical Strikes are well known to the government.

So tell me this folks:

India could have opted to do nothing about Doklam. India could have stepped back - but it was considered essential defence so we went ahead. We have no account of the money spent and thankfully no one is making a fuss. The same thing is true for the so called surgical strikes. Neither would have been "cheap".

Maldives on the other hand was completely non essential. Jumping in for an overseas campaign, mobilizing air force, army and navy with no clear aim and some imaginary ideal of setting up "some leader other than this one" may have been a great "see how big is my dick" type of geopolitical game for the government. But it would have been a completely useless exercise and perhaps loss of life for the armed forces. The US has been doing this kind of shit regularly - and losing men and spending billions. But we need to pinch ourselves and recall that we are not Americans I am glad the armed forces were not called in to play out some idiotic drama in the Maldives.

[shiv]

I have been watching Dr. Subhash kapila's predictions for the last 20 years, never his advice went wrong.

Go on. Let us hear some predictions that never went wrong.

[nam]

^^^^

Nehru was so blind with his 'hindi chini bhai-bhai', he could not believe that chini backstabbed him, and what is this logic, we will become monster strong when China attacks us?

Trust me, I want the Chinis to attack.In 62, they mobilized around 80k troops. How am I suppose to take the Chinis seriously when they dont even have this number on Tibetan border? And this age, you cannot hid 80k troops.

The problem is China knows, India is waiting for it.

And one more thing. We did not lose 62. We did not fight. Chinese went back to where they started, because they were staring at complete destruction of their forces.

[shiv]

As I see it - all this emotion about China and "behaving weak" and "behaving strong" are all nonsense. What do we want? We know that China is strong. We know that we cannot catch up with their armed strength for a long time. We also know that we don;t have to "catch up" unless we want to attack them. The sensible thing to do is to be strong enough to stop any misadventure from their side whether it comes today or in 5 years from now.

But once China cannot meet its territorial claims militarily - we still have to deal with China on many levels. One level would be to gradually give China guarded support in exchange for China weaning itself away from Pakistan. In my view this has to be a medium to long term game - at least 5 to 10 years. It's not as though we have done nothing. We got Chabahar working to a level where it is possible to invite others.Iran inviting China is a joke - like Nawaz Sharif offering JF-17 to Air Marshal Khokhar of the IAF at Farnborough. China could do no more than fart feebly as India struck that deal with Iran and got it working. Chabahar takes the wind out of Gwadar's sagging sails. Let the Chinese do their shipping via Iran. What is there to be scared of other than all the useless fears we express because we cannot forget 1962. China is definitely not going to be pumping oil 5 kilometers up via Pak into the Karakoram mountains using energy to keep the oil warn so it does not freeze in the permafrost only to take it to Xinjiang. As long as we are getting our stuff to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan why worry? China can access Afghanistan directly if they want - it will make it cheaper for them. The don't need Chabahar for that. OBOR (or B&R) has direct access to Central Asia and Chinese exports will not have to come all the way down to Malacca and via Indian ocean to get to central Asia. China has already supplied missile tech and UAVs to Iran. It is well within Iran's rights to make China an offer - and there is no need for Indians to come up with idiotic stories like "Iran was in our pocket. We will lose it" That is rubbish. I find it extraordinary that the same words that flow out of BRF wrt to other countries get choked up when we talk of India. There are no permanent friends or enemies. Only permanent interests

[pankajs]

^^
Exactly my thought. Till Chabahar serves our interests let it be open to ALL. Why just China and Bakistan, I say invite US, UK, Germany, Japan ... Maldives .. just anyone who wants to send good up to Central Asia. It will only end up enhancing the value of our investment/earnings that is dues India without any skin off our nose. Has no negative strategic consequence for India like opening Wagah trade will carry.

Let me add, If India where setup to set up Fertilizer/Aluminum plant in Chabhar let us supply Bakistan from there. Lets connect Chabhar to Gwadar. My bets is that the Bakis will balk at the linkage as they will see it as another attempt by India to infiltrate/corner Baksitani market. We will divert the India-Dubai-Karanchi trade to India-Chabhar-Gwadar trade. Why is that so difficult to understand?

[TKiran]

http://southasiaanalysis.org/node/2273

Indian Foreign Policy Establishment’s China Policy Conundrum

Paper No. 6356 Dated 14-Mar-2018

By Dr Subhash Kapila

India and its foreign policy establishment’s most confusing conundrum once again is to clearly define whether in the larger and long-range perspective China is India’s ‘Friend or Foe’? India’s lack of discerning this distinction makes it ecstatically jump at every crumb of feigned friendship that China spasmodically keeps throwing at India

India’s confused China Policy Conundrum has once again surfaced recently when media reports indicate that Indian Foreign Secretary Gokhale sent an advisory note to the Cabinet Secretary that Indian leaders and officials should not attend HH The Dalai Lama’s ‘Thank Yu India’ event in Delhi out of sensitivity for China’s stances on Tibet.

Taking the hint the Central Tibetan Administration relocated this event to Dharamsala. Is it not a pity that India under the dynamic leadership of PM Modi is once again be perceptionaly viewed in Asian capitals as kow-towing to Chinese pressures or political coercion? Is that the image that India wishes to project at a time when the global community is acknowledging India as an Emerged Power?

Ironic is the fact that PM Modi who won laurels for standing up to China in the Dkalam Standoff last year and where China blinked should now become a party to be seen as kow-towing to China. Further ironic is the fact that even a confirmed China-apologist like former PM Nehru defied China by giving political asylum to HH Dalai Lama and Tibetans in 1959 and now we have in 2018 PM Modi’s Foreign Secretary issuing an order which amounts to HH Dalai Lama and Tibetans being made sacrificial goats to appease China.

In March 2018, there are no cogent mitigating factors that have arisen to prompt this sudden change of India’s attitudes and generate positive readings on China other than the personal assessment of India’s new Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale. His postings in Hong Kong, Taipei and in Beijing and being a fluent Mandarin speaker may have made him a China-specialist but not necessarily an accurate diviner of China’s policy attitudes towards India.

Divining China’s hostile attitudes cannot be the sole preserve of India’s top-most foreign policy official. India’s nett assessments on China since 1962 have consistently confirmed that the China Threat to India is a ‘Live Threat’ and which in 2018 stands multiplied manifold.

China has not visibly reset its South Asia policies to incorporate India’s strategic sensitivities. On the contrary, China has vigorously pursued “Anti-India” policies eve since Chinese President Xi Jinping has assumed his office with monarchical contours.

Since 2014, China’s Comprehensive Military Threat now stands out with the ‘Military Threat’ component becoming more prominent, potent and with sharper edges. At such a juncture, India cannot afford the luxury of political outreaches to China which carries the aroma of submitting and capitulating to the China Threat.

Since the military component of the China Threat to India predominates the political and economic threat, incumbent therefore is the imperative that China-intentions reading in India emerge as a joint assessment by India’s Feign Office and the Indian Armed Forces hierarchy charged with defending India’s sovereignty. This obviously has not taken place as the Indian military hierarchy going by Dokalam and post- Dokalam developments would not have agreed to a sudden deference to China’s sensitivities and certainly not on Tibet-related issues.

The points that seem to be overlooked in Indian official discourses on China revolve around the following salient factors that stood highlighted in my Book “China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives” (2015) as follows:

China-India Military Confrontation ongoing in the21st Century is no longer limited to China’s disputing India’s borders with China Occupied Tibet. It now stands transformed into a fierce ‘geopolitical power-play and tussle’ in which China has exhibited no-holds barred postures against India.
China’s hegemonistic designs on Asia are a precursor to its ultimate Grand Strategy of attaining “Strategic Equivalence with the United States”. What stands in between are the two contending Asian major powers of India and Japan with whom China has a history of conflictual record.
China is unwilling to concede any strategic space in Asia to either India or Japan.
Both in the geopolitical power tussle and the decades-old border confrontation, the Core Issue is Tibet. In fact my very first Chapter in the Book refers to “Tibet is India’s Core Issue in China-India Military Confrontation”
India today is in the unique position of playing both the “India Card” and so also the “Tibet Card” against China, if only the Indian political leaders and its foreign policy establishment do not lapse into Nehruvian timidity and lack of ‘political will’ use power and balance of power strategies to ward of the China Threat.
In the instant discussion, what is at stake due to faulty perceptions of the Indian foreign policy establishment is India throwing away its most potent and strong “Tibet Card” with which China is all at ease for decades. In fact, India’s ‘Tibet Card’ is the strongest leverage that India has over China.

China’s hold on China Occupied Tibet cannot be eternal and China fears that like in 2008 Tibet could erupt into serious and violent protests and disturbances linked with any future demise of HH The Dalai Lama. China has made it abundantly clear that it is China which will appoint the next Dalai Lama fearing that the large Tibetans population in India and in the West would not accept the Chinese-foisted choice of Dalai Lama.

The other pertinent question that arises contextually is that does it devolve on India only to display regard for China’s sensitivities on the Tibet issue or other contentious issues that divide China-India relationship? Has China ever displayed such matching sensitivities to India’s concerns?

India and its foreign policy establishment should be in no doubt about China’s intentions about down-sizing India in the perceptions in Asian capitals which are currently looking up to India to emerge as the nett provider of regional security against an uncontrollable China.

In 2018, therefore, the geopolitical power-play basically boils down to managing perceptions in Asia capitals of whether India can outgrow its Non Alignment shibboleths or the attitudinal policy inclinations of its decision-making establishment to seek the easy way out of complex challenges like the ongoing China-India military Confrontation being brought to a head once again in mid-2017 over the Dokalam Standoff;

While China is engaged in an uninterrupted ‘Containment of India “post-1962, the Indian foreign policy establishment’s remnants of the erstwhile Non Alignment Gladiators are succumbing to China’s spurious overtures for peace and friendship with India. Have we not seen this sort of Chinese strategic moves earlier in the middle of the last decade?

Once again recently, the Chinese Foreign Minister asserted that China and India have no choice but that “to tango together “and that even the tall Himalayas cannot prevent China-India friendship.

If China had genuine feelings for India’s friendship then what was the need for China to indulge in ‘Containment of India’ in the last decade politically, strategically and militarily? Why the forging of the China-Pakistan Military Axis? Why the China Pakistan Economic Corridor as explained in my Book of outflanking India’s Northern and Western defensive military deployments? Why the repeated Vetoes by China in the United Nation to stop Pakistan’s top Islamic Jihadi terrorist leaders as ‘global terrorists’. Why the Dokalam Military Standoff in an erstwhile peaceful sector? Why China’s reinforcing its Dokalam military presence into strong permanent military fortifications?

The list is endless and India’s foreign policy establishment advocating peaceful relations with China have no logical and convincing answers to provide.

Perceptionaly, I strongly feel and would advise that India’s foreign policy establishment should not be headed by Chinese Mandarin speaking China-hands who seem to suffer from the Stockholm Syndrome. Since India’s political leaders over-rely on them in the mistaken belief that with their Mandarin knowledge they can decipher Chinese leaders’ intentions, India’s China-policy becomes a captive to erroneous divinations.

India has no reason to kow-tow to China in 2018 when it is globally being perceived as an Emerged Power, something distasteful and unacceptable to the Chinese leadership. Does India under misperceived advisories of its foreign policy establishment wish to go into a downslide and be seen lapsing into the Nehruvian mould of a timid and powerless Asian behemoth.

The Indian political leadership cannot also be oblivious to Indian public opinion which perceives China as an ‘Enemy State” continuously engaged in down-sizing India and cavorting with India’s other confirmed enemy-state that is Pakistan.

The Indian Government and nor its policy apparatus has advanced convincing reasons for India suddenly resetting its relations with China and this leads to suspicions.. One hopes not that the Modi Government has not chickened –out fearing that a repeat of the Dokalam Standoff in 2018 0r2019 by China may find India militarily disadvantaged and that too in the run-up to 2019 General Elections.

India must have a running continuity in its China policy formulations viewing the larger picture and taking long-range geopolitical perspectives as the lodestars. In such perspectives China continues to figure as India’s most potent and dangerous Threat Number One.

While peace and dialogues with China are eminently desirable and should be pursued with vigour it is equally incumbent on India’s political leadership that India pursues with vigour India’s ‘War Preparedness’ to fight a Two Front War likely to be foisted on India by the combined strength of China and Pakistan.

The cardinal principle that India must adhere to is that India’s China Policy does not acquire Chamberlainisque contours of peace at any cost with China. The instant directive by Foreign Secretary smacks of the same. That danger lurks when Indian foreign policy is divorced from military assessments of its military planners.

Indian foreign policy establishment’s confused conundrum would fade away the very moment that India’s foreign policy planners do not succumb to impulsively pick up spurious crumbs of friendship thrown by China sparingly confident in the belief that India would grovel and kow-tow to China. The Indian Foreign Office must be clear that China is perceptively viewed largely in India as Enemy Number One by its demonstrated actions against India.

How can the Foreign Office afford to have different perceptions on China other than what figures in Official Ministry of Defence documents and the accurate readings of China of the Indian military hierarchy?

Concluding, the following observations need to be re-asserted:

India’s foreign policy establishment’s confused policy conundrum arises from its inability to recognise that the China Threat to India is a ‘Live Threat’ increasing in size and magnitude each passing day.
India’s ‘China Threat’ should never be under-played or de-emphasised by any organ of the Indian Government.
China has not made any sustained efforts to reset its South Asia policy to respect India’s strategic sensitivities. Why the sudden urge of India’s foreign policy establishment to respect China’s strategic sensitivities on Tibet?
India cannot afford to throw away its ‘Tibet Card’ to humour China’s strategic sensitivities
India cannot afford to display divided perceptions on China between its Foreign Office and its Armed Forces hierarchy as far as the China Threat to India is concerned In the ultimate test when China repeatedly will indulge in Military Stand-Offs with India, it is Indian Armed Forces who have to neutralise China’s propensity for armed conflict with India and not India’s diplomats
Ironic would be the day if India under PM Modi’s dynamism lapses into the Pre-1962 Syndrome of China Appeasement and COMPLACENCY in Defence Budget allocations leading to India’s LACK OF WAR PRPAREDNESS against the dual China=Pakistan Axis as visible in 2018.

Shiv sir, that message was meant for nam, not you.

[pankajs]

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... portunity/
China cornered, India’s window of opportunity [ By Dr Subhash Kapila Issue Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group | Date : 11 Jul , 2013]

China being strategically cornered globally in 2013 is a reality and this is likely to continue till such time China does not change its strategic postulations. Therefore this should have stiffened the Indian establishment to stand firm in facing up to the Chinese aggression recently in the Daulet Beg Oldie sub-sector of Ladakh.

Sadly due to absence of “Lateral Analysis” of threat assessments, India went down tamely to Chinese political and military coercion and in an avoidable display of weakness by India.

Also in play in India submitting to Chinese coercion was the regrettable trait in India’s political leadership of all political dispensations, and that is the obsessive mind-sets of “Risk Aversion’ when it comes to standing-up to Chinese military provocations. On national security matters the apex leadership seems to be ill-advised.

Consequently, India’s strategic stock globally and in Asian powers capitals has crashed. Contrast the responses of Japan to Chinese military provocations in the East China Sea. Contrast the responses of smaller countries like Vietnam and the Philippines to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.

Philippines response to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea has left China cornered. Compare Philippines response to India's.

1. How many folks believe that China is as cornered in 2018 as it was in 2013 per Dr Subhash Kapila?
2. If it is not cornered in 2018, then how many folks believe that China has changed [Moderated or toned down] its "strategic postulations" from what it was in 2013?
3. How many folks on the board believe that China was *forced" to change its "strategic postulations" after strong response from Philippines?

Now I am on the floor ................

....
....

ROTFLing .............

So much gyan from someone who has not been wrong in 20 years.

[chola]

The colorful Amreeki phrase “Sh!t or get off the flucking pot” is most appropriate for our state of mind on Cheen.

If we can’t stomach any Cheeni influence around us then just go to war please. Stop this stupid bellyaching. We still own overwhelming military, geo-strategic and logistical advantages along the border and the IOR.

If not? We are SDRE onlee? Then shut the fluck up and do what the PRC did in the past 30 years with the US Navy in its face and grow our economy and industrial base full blast (that means buying local.)

But before deciding on the second option, we need to understand that the gap with Cheen will continue to increase in our life time. Eventually the tide will turn but it will be the next generation that sees it.

As the selfish b@stard that I am, I want to see our turn at the top before I die so I advocate for a short, sharp war that re-orders Asia in our favor. We cannot lose in a war along the border and the IOR. There is really no downside unless Cheen makes it total war but will fluck them more than it will screw us up since they are wealthier and trade dependent.

[shiv]

Whenever there is any news about China, no, change that, whenever there is any news about anything - a lot of our analyses are like loose gossip in hospital staff coffee rooms. (no different from Bengaluru housewives of the 60s after hubby and kids were packed off)

With Kookal unkal available at our fingertips it is always a good idea to look for information.

The "Thank You India" event that is causing so much heartburn was organized by the CTA

The CTA is the "Central Tibetan Administration", or a Tibetan Government in Exile which has been operating in India for many decades. This is not an organization recognized by any country but it lives, thrives and collects donations from all over the world to operate in India with its HQ in Dharamsala

Here is Wiki on CTA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_T ... nistration

More in the next post

[shiv]

Here is what the Central Tibetan Admisntration, Tibetan government in exile operating in India have to say about the "Thank you India" event
http://www.financialexpress.com/india-n ... t/1088630/

financialexpress.com
Dalai Lama event in Delhi cancelled, 'Thank You India' programme shifted to Dharamsala, here is why
FE Online

Tibetan government-in-exile will not hold two main events in New Delhi. These events were scheduled to take place in the national capital to mark 60 years in exile of the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama. It has been learnt that Central Tibetan Administration has decided to shift ‘Thank You India’ event, which was decided to be held at the Thyagaraj Sports Complex on April 1, to Dharamsala. Apart from this an inter-faith prayer, which was to be organised at the Gandhi Samadhi in Rajghat on March 31, has been cancelled, according to The Indian Express report.

This comes days after there was a report which stated that the central government had allegedly asked senior leaders and officials not to attend any event that would mark 60 years in exile of the Dalai Lama. However, later the Ministry of External Affairs had categorically that there was no change in government’s position and stand on Dalai Lama. The MEA said that India’s position on Dalai Lama was clear and consistent. Dalai Lama is a revered religious leader and is deeply respected by people of India and accorded all freedom to carry out his religious activities in the country, MEA said, as per ANI report.

It was learnt that Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale’s had sent a note to Cabinet Secretary P K Sinha who then sent directive asking officials no to join the events. The Central government had said that it was a “very sensitive time” for Sino-India relationship.

Meanwhile, spokesperson for the Central Tibetan Administration Sonam Dagpo said that they respected the central government’s decision and chose not to share too much information. However, he had said that India is host to Tibetan refugees, according to IE report. Tibetan government-in-exile will continue to participate in Swachh Bharat, tree-plantation, Yoga Day and other events, Dagpo was quoted as saying by IE.

Last year, Dalai Lama had asserted that Tibet does not seek independence from China but wants greater development. Addressing an interactive session organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce, he had said that both China and Tibet enjoyed a close relationship even as there were a few fights. He had said that the past is past and stressed on the need to look into the future.

Clearly there are things happening behind the scenes that are not simple "being intimidated/scared"

[chola]

Dalai Lama had asserted that Tibet does not seek independence from China but wants greater development. Addressing an interactive session organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce, he had said that both China and Tibet enjoyed a close

This guy is officially useless to India. I have no judgement on him as a person. I’m sure he is a good person. But he has no value anymore. He is Gandhi but the chinis are no Brits. I would hope we are already grooming someone more of a firebrand for the future.

[yensoy]

Dalai Lama had asserted that Tibet does not seek independence from China but wants greater development. Addressing an interactive session organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce, he had said that both China and Tibet enjoyed a close

This guy is officially useless to India. I have no judgement on him as a person. I’m sure he is a good person. But he has no value anymore. He is Gandhi but the chinis are no Brits. I would hope we are already grooming someone more of a firebrand for the future.

Fact is that Western support for the Tibetan cause is in large part due to the pacifist image of Tibet, Tibetans, Buddhism and Dalai Lama. The moment you replace him with a "firebrand" you will lose that entirely and people will say "why do I care". There is an example next door, does Xinjiang have the same draw in Western minds that Tibet does?

The Tibet movement needs support from the West otherwise it will die; even now it is getting more difficult for countries to support Tibet in light of economic pressure from China. Direct action by Tibetans within Tibet is assured suicide - it will be put down very hard.

[kiranA]

India's influence is clearly waning in its neighbourhood ranging from hindu nepal to budhist sri lanka to muslim maldives.

I actually have a problem with this statement in the sense that it simply rehashes "conventional" statements without examining the truth

We (Indians) somehow imagined that we had great influence over Nepal because they are Hindus. In actual fact we have never had much influence over Nepal because we have never applied the prime currency of influence - that is coercive power. So all this stuff about losing Nepal IMO is balderdash. We have some influence on Nepal - but I will make a footnote of my view on that.

Influence over Sri Lanka is the biggest joke. Once again we have maintained "cordial relations" and think "they are like us" because of certain historic and cultural links. Sri Lankans were contemptuous of Indian in the late 70s and 80s. We represented all that was lousy about Asia. Once again - we have never exerted coercive power over them - except for a short masturbatory foray into Jaffna that was half hearted and ended painfully

Influence over the Maldives is even more tenuous and imaginary. We guys simply do not know what influence means and use the word like a parrot saying "I love rock music'. Influence means "We bark. They jump" Maldivian history has connections with Sri Lanka, China and later Muslims. Yes there are people of Indian origin - but that is not "Indian influence". All we did was a short and well timed military removal of Sri Lankan rebels. When that happened - the Maldives appealed to many nations including UK and USA apart from India. India was (and still is) in the best position to exert coercive power in the Maldives - which we simply never do. We "think" we have influence over the Maldives. We need to think again. So we have not lost anything more than we had. We need to stop deluding ourselves with nonsensical and mythical tales of "influence" which we have never tried to exert.

Footnote: yes we do have some economic and cultural influence over Sri Lanka and Nepal. Perhaps Maldives as well. But let me state the unstated influence we do have - which no one likes to talk about because we are such stupids. We are a huge and powerful nation sitting next to Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. If we choose to kick butt, butt will be kicked. I think all 3 nations realize that perfectly well and I know that such signals have been sent in private. But unfortunately Indian diplomacy behaves like British diplomats at the height of British power. Understated with the veiled threat of violence. We need to get out of that mode and fart loudly in the direction of those who play against our interests. But I believe we are hamstrung by a bunch of leaders who see only USA, Europe and China/Japan as world leaders and India as a nonentity. This idiocy spills over on to us and we also talk like that. Frankly, it's sickening.

All true. But my point is none of those countries did anything that warrants butt thinking except maybe Nepal who mistreated Indian origin people near the plains . They are maintaining positive relations with China just for mutual benefit and not to spite india .

Question is a good relationship with China automatically is a threat to India despite no such obvious intentions? The answer is not clear . Relationship with China gives China a leverage and it may use it to favor Pakistan. It may not be war but still painful things to india like stopping international pressure to arrest murderes like dawood enjoying the good life.

But what can we do ? We can’t tell these countries they have no right to maintain relationships with China . We need to get our economy right . This means not investing in any adventures such as naval base in Mozambique or marituis or even chabahar. Why are we developing infrastructure of a country like Iran which more than twice as rich as India? Access to trade to Afghanistan ? This trade is piffling . Instead invest in Indian ports and give employment to Indians .

[shiv]

But what can we do ? We can’t tell these countries they have no right to maintain relationships with China . We need to get our economy right . This means not investing in any adventures such as naval base in Mozambique or marituis or even chabahar. Why are we developing infrastructure of a country like Iran which more than twice as rich as India? Access to trade to Afghanistan ? This trade is piffling . Instead invest in Indian ports and give employment to Indians .

Keeping a Tibetan government in exile in India, keeping a huge population of Tibetans who live in India like they did in Tibet, competing with CPEC by investing in Chabahar, bases in Mauritius and Oman, also Seychelles, agreements with nations for refueling/exchange of data, oil exporation off Vietnamese coast, pressure on Sri Lanka and Maldives not to give Chinese any military access are all moves that are designed to irritate China and do not sound like being "cowed down" by China which we like to claim while shedding tears. And China can do nothing. As Rudradev pointed out - we are so overwhelmed by established ideas of a world where we are zeroes and there are "superpowers" all around us - we were happy to have America doing more gandmasti than China in Indian ocean and Pakistan. Now with China challenging USA we are still unable to see that we too have a place in this world. we shut India out - award China with "mai-baap" status challenging USA and cry too much.

We need to see that we too have some power and influence - but we spend all our time informing each other how bad things are because of China. But we have grown to what we are despite the USA -much much bigger than China being against us most of the time. But with our English education we can never see the USA as bad or as having opposed us for decades -and we still grew, we still outgrew Pakistan. We never give ourselves credit for anything because we simply do not recognize any place for India in this world. No mental model can accommodate India because we live on mental models of an irrelevant India where other nations are important, written by the "strategic analysts" of those nations - whose works we mug up. That is how the world was structured by 1947 and we still live by that model. This is why I curse our strategic analysts. They are too dumb to see and write about how the world has been changed by India and how india has crashed through all the silly stereotypes. But in between we have had some great thinkers who have contributed to Indian power.Rajiv Gandhi and his assaults on neighbouring Islands was not one of them. But we are stuck in a mental rut that cannot see Indian power or the place India occupies.

This is not about BRF - but it is about the whole jing bang bunch of outdated dodos - Karnad, Chellaney and Subash kapila and their ilk apart from a large bunch of smaller people whose entire worldview has never been able to define a place for India as anything more than a colony or as losers. Despite evidence that India has seen through the worst geopolitical assaults on our civilization

[TKiran]

^^^shiv sir, the strategic analysts you mentioned are advocating a consistency in the policy. It's those people who opposed the Siachen handover to Pakistan. They have been working with the knowledge that India has already arrived and we don't need to be pusillanimous anymore.

What rudradev was talking about was with respect to the mea mandarins, who reached that level by mugging the competition success review, limca book of records etc.

[shiv]

^^^shiv sir, the strategic analysts you mentioned are advocating a consistency in the policy. It's those people who opposed the Siachen handover to Pakistan. They have been working with the knowledge that India has already arrived and we don't need to be pusillanimous anymore.

What rudradev was talking about was with respect to the mea mandarins, who reached that level by mugging the competition success review, limca book of records etc.

I would not generalize and support those analysts. You are entitled to your view but I find a lot of stupid statements coming from those analysts which totally lack any research. They continue to sit on their pedestals with nothing new to offer. I have seen that with regard to nuclear issues as well as China in regard to the highways, railways and the so called string of pearls. I am amazed that none of these thinkers has has any effect on teaching Indians about Pakistan. I still see the media saying 'Pakistan supports terror says analyst xyz" or "Pakistan army is behind pakistan policy says analyst abc"

The same old same old same old stuff is being rehashed and vomited out with not a hint of movement.

Which analyst has pointed out that there are no bases in the string of pearls? Which analyst has pointed out that Chinese ships have a very long logistics lines (which was also stated by the CNS)? Which analyst knows what a naval base should be and which place that China has developed in the Indian ocean has any such base? Which analyst has pointed out the limits of transport on the Tibet railway? Which analyst has pointed out the logistics nightmare of inducting 200,000 troops into Tibet. All that these guys do is crap in their pants and make everyone else crap in theirs Useless morons. Karnad spent all his life saying megatonne megatonne megatonne and cursing Indians for our uselessness. Bah. Please don't tell me that the bunch have anything to teach. You are welcome to your views about them

Rudradev may have been talking about MEA mandarins but I am referring all Indians including strategic analysts who have learned the same self deprecating crap about India.

[Pulikeshi]

As I see it - all this emotion about China and "behaving weak" and "behaving strong" are all nonsense. What do we want?

IMVHO - you ask the most important question... then you digress into the weeds!

That is rubbish. I find it extraordinary that the same words that flow out of BRF wrt to other countries get choked up when we talk of India. There are no permanent friends or enemies. Only permanent interests

While your digressive tirade is on the right track, and personally enjoyable, it is going to the wrong station... normative claims ought to be made.
The only way to fix the narrative is to come out with an alternate one... otherwise like you say, we get sucked into “haatosmi analysts!”
Here is a simple list - criticism is welcome:

1. India needs to become the first among equals in the IOR - Indo-Pacific region
2. Prevent the Yuan from becoming the default currency
3. Make Tibet & Xinjiang expensive for China
4. Prevent China from becoming a naval power - Work with China’s coastal neighbors to never let them get maritime free hand for ex.
5. Make Pakistan expensive for China - make them own the terrorist and nuclear problem
6. Invite Gobar Times and PLA (retired fat cats!) to public debates on Republic/WION and have some beer and popcorn
7. Indian movies need to explore China or Chinese characters and their struggles - set the narrative!

Anyway, you guys get the gist - what is needed is a very crisp black and white list like the above. The policy that foriegn policy’s only purpose is to transform the life’s of the citizens of India has proved to be too myopic. While that is the end goal, not all things a nation-state does can be constrained into that dictum. Sometimes, states need to do devious things to eventually get to that goal. Other times states have gone wrong becoming obsessed with such behavior - a la Pakis - however, to always play by the rules and never being offensive is a fatal mistake in the India babucrazy. Doklam and Maldives suggests otherwise, that some fore thought and offensive defense is at play, but it is neither sufficient, nor enough!

[Pulikeshi]

This is soon becoming my news source on all things China - hope you support this effort as well

[shiv]

Lots of lighthearted rubbish in the above video. Here's the real deal

China's "String of Pearls"
https://youtu.be/UPWq32DP7u8

[pankajs]

I don't recall India having anything similar .. Perhaps time to start planning

https://www.popsci.com/gaofen-4-worlds- ... into-space
Gaofen 4, The World's Most Powerful GEO Spy Satellite, Continues China's Great Leap Forward Into Space

Billed as a disaster relief satellite, the Gaofen 4 was placed in Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO). GEO satellites constantly stay above a patch of Earth, thus providing constant 24 hour surveillance of a geographic area.

<snip>

In the Gaofen 4's case, its range of view is a 7,000km by 7,000km box of 49 million square kilometers of Asian land and water in and around China.

<snip>

The Gaofen 4 is the world's most powerful GEO spy satellite. It has a color image resolution of slightly less than 50 meters (which is enough to track aircraft carriers by their wake at sea) and a thermal imaging resolution of 400m (good for spotting forest fires). It may also have a lower resolution video streaming capacity. Because of its round-the-clock coverage of Chinese territory and near aboard, Gaofen 4 can provide instant coverage of earthquake or typhoon hit areas to support humanitarian relief. It will also allow China to monitor strategic foreign sites such as WMD facilities and naval bases inside its observation box.

There will be challenges but my guess is such a satellite is within our capability. Such a satellite over the Indian ocean coupled with 6 CARTOSAT-3 should make the job of tracking ships in the IOR region in near real-time possible.

[Philip]

You know,I've been giving serious thought to the title of this td. "Defanging" the beast.
Now ,by definition,the beastly dragon is represented by its gleat reader,comrade XI Gins.So in order to defang the beast,we must therefore defang him.This is where India can really score.We have a century+ history of some of the best defangers in the world,our famous Chinese "tooth mechanics",found the length and breadth of the country.Their special methods of removing fangs must be put to good use.Many of them are now full Indian citizens and can be inveigled to take part in a secret black ops.Get them into Beijing preferably from Hong Kong,and then penetrate the establishment of the "tooth mechanic" of XI Gins,Taiwan's NSB will do the needful,and then at the next appointment with XI Gins,defang him totally while he is under the laughing gas! His resultant visage will make him such an object of ridicule,that he would be immediately purged,replaced with more capitalist minded comrades of him who are at the moment state guests in the forbidden city.No need for James Bond,Chen Banh will do the needful!

[chola]

^^^ I think the last chini dentist died in Kolkata a decade ago. Chindis are a dying if not nearly extinct species in India. All their young people migrated to Canada and Oz. Don’t confuse the northeasterners with chinis, Filipov.

[SSridhar]

This is soon becoming my news source on all things China - hope you support this effort as well

There is an attribution of 'String pf Pearls' to CSIS in the video; the term was coined by Booz Allen Hamilton almost 15 years back in dealing with energy security.

[Pulikeshi]

Lots of lighthearted rubbish in the above video. Here's the real deal

You have a very informative video there Shiv - saw it before...
The China Uncensored series is a humorous look at China - its from a US perspective, but its BENIS worthy for Cheena!

[shiv]

^^I watch that regularly - that guy keeps a deadpan face while making the most sarcastic remarks..

[shiv]

Yes Sridhar is right - I read that name Booz recently. One thing that strikes me about all string of pearls news - be it from India or the west - they are worded like Bollywood gossip - "Who is Salman's latest love" or "Is it wotzisname or thatsisname whom Deepika is seen with"

Like 8000000000000000000000 pregnant women raped in Kashmir the same words are hashed and rehashed. China is doing xyz in Indian ocean and India is anxious/worried/angry.

No new analysis seems to have been done in 10 years. No one is bothered. The Indian navy chief is saying something different. Even the Chinese are singing a different tune. The satellite images show something different - but the wordings or reports have not changed at all "China encircling India bla bla bla"

There is great laziness and copypasting in the press which is carried into "serious articles" by people who can't be bothered to do more than a cursory Google search before copypasting. And like the latest MRCA thread there are now hundred of articles from dozens of portal, viseod where the voice simply reads out those articles and all of them get posted on discussion groups like BRF or Twitter as "latest information"

The situation in terms of availability of sensible information is pathetic

[TKiran]

Shiv sir, what you are saying is that though China is trying to tame Himalayas, India is still better positioned.

The conventional wisdom has been that Himalayas can't be tamed (this my knowledge of CSR, Manorama, and limca book of records etc). I get worried every time China is trying to tame Himalayas, such as Tibet railway, defencive postures of China in Doklam, or Tawang, diversion of Tibet waters, CPEC etc, as I get perplexed when China is doing all these things.

What you are saying is that we don't need to worry, as China can't threaten us, we are strong.

Again my CSR, Manorama knowledge says that Indian ocean is India's ocean. Here again China is trying to tame Indian ocean. You are saying we need not worry.

Well, I can't stop worrying as what has been all along for centuries been India's sphere of influence is getting converted to China sphere of influence.

As you said I am entitled to my views, I would like Indian government to resist such status quo alterations by first 'diplomacy' (MEA), then by coersion, if it's still not working, use of force.

When India is sensitive to the sensitivity of China, I get frustrated. China is an enemy no.1, there should be no accommodation for China, Tibet is not China. We have a Dharma to liberate Tibet.

You can have your own views.

[Philip]

A full - scale war in the Himalayas is not the aim of the Chinese.Capturing linited but key territory and undermini g the Dalai Lama and Tibetan Buddhism paramount.China's current open war againsi " God" at home gives an indication of their goal of eventually exterminating Tibetan religion and culture in favour of Confucism and the thoughts of their new defacto C
" Chairman "Xi.

Tooth mechanics still around though in smaller nos. than before.The high-tech dentists clinics sprouting up all over and in multi- speciality hospitals is slowly klling off boutique artists.

[anupmisra]

Wary of China, Europe and Others Push Back on Foreign Takeovers
Defanging globally.

Europe is pushing for more stringent vetting of foreign investments, with an eye on Beijing. Australia has been blocking bids by Chinese buyers for strategic assets. And in Canada, a Chinese takeover of a major contractor faces a national security test.

Governments around the world, and especially in Europe, are increasingly inclined to use such concerns as a litmus test for Chinese investments to protect their competitive edge.

“Most countries don’t know how to react.”

The United States appears to be taking the hardest line toward China.

Europe got off to a later start. A protectionist debate ramped up last year when Germany, France and Italy called for a Europe-wide mechanism for more rigorous vetting of foreign takeovers. The move came amid rising worries about the loss of the region’s edge in technology, and the transfer of so-called dual-use technologies to China.

Paris would welcome investment from China, but only after screening deals to ensure French assets were not “looted.”

the German Parliament passed a law allowing deals to be scrutinized on national security grounds if an investor’s stake reaches 25 percent.

the risks of angering China are real. Despite the optics, European companies remain eager for Chinese investments.

Europe is also divided over how to cope with China’s rise. Greece, Hungary and other poorer southern and Central European countries that benefited from China’s largess during the financial crisis have generally opposed tightening scrutiny for fear of discouraging further Chinese investment.

Germany was caught off guard after one of China’s wealthiest men last month amassed a $9 billion stake in Daimler, a crown jewel of Germany’s auto industry. Li Shufu, the chairman of the Chinese car giant Geely, made the grab through a financial maneuver before anyone even realized what was happening.

In Australia, where Chinese foreign investment reached more than $30 billion in 2014 alone, the government has sought to toughen screening.

Wariness of Beijing’s growing economic influence has increased as Chinese investors buy up vast swaths of the Australian economy and over concerns about Chinese businessmen giving millions of dollars to Australian politicians. Chinese takeovers of Australian businesses have jumped in recent years, along with an acceleration in purchases of agricultural land.

Elsewhere, while the government of Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has been courting Chinese investors, public sentiment in Canada has not always aligned with that effort. Some attempted takeovers of Canadian companies by Chinese investors were abandoned because of concerns over national security and Chinese business practices.

Lenovo, the Chinese computer maker, dropped ambitions to acquire BlackBerry, a smartphone used widely in government agencies, after Ottawa signaled a deal could compromise national security.

The government is now reviewing a proposed takeover of Aecon, a major Canadian contractor, by Chinese state-backed CCCC International Holding. Officials are assessing whether national security would be undermined by the takeover of Aecon, which handles major infrastructure projects and has done work for Canada’s military and nuclear industry.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/busi ... ctionfront

[anupmisra]

China to Bar People With Bad 'Social Credit' From Planes, Trains
Big brother (Uncle Eleven) is watching you.

China said it will begin applying its so-called social credit system to flights and trains and stop people who have committed misdeeds from taking such transport for up to a year.

People who would be put on the restricted lists included those found to have committed acts like spreading false information about terrorism and causing trouble on flights, as well as those who used expired tickets or smoked on trains, according to two statements issued on the National Development and Reform Commission's website on Friday.

Those found to have committed financial wrongdoings, such as employers who failed to pay social insurance or people who have failed to pay fines, would also face these restrictions

The move is in line with President's Xi Jinping's plan to construct a social credit system based on the principle of "once untrustworthy, always restricted"

China has flagged plans to roll out a system that will allow government bodies to share information on its citizens' trustworthiness

This will also prevent "low credit bad people" from leaving the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/03 ... redit.html

[anupmisra]

Prison Time for China Anthem Insults in New Hong Kong Law

Hong Kong authorities on Friday unveiled planned legislation requiring students to be taught China's national anthem and punishing anyone who insults it with up to three years in prison.

The legislation also calls for anyone who is present when "March of The Volunteers" is played to "stand and deport themselves respectfully."

The proposed law adds to concerns that Beijing is eroding civil liberties in Hong Kong despite promises to maintain them following its 1997 handover from Britain.

The proposal also calls for primary and secondary schools to teach pupils the anthem as well as "to observe the etiquette" when it is sung or played.

Big Brother = Communism = Fascism = Islam

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/0 ... m-law.html

[Pulikeshi]

Yes Sridhar is right - I read that name Booz recently.
...
The situation in terms of availability of sensible information is pathetic

There is an attribution of 'String pf Pearls' to CSIS in the video; the term was coined by Booz Allen Hamilton almost 15 years back in dealing with energy security.

True that!
There is a possibility that US uses this alternate facts to its advantage.
On the Indian mandarin side, the lack of sensible information, is sometimes deliberate. Big stick and quietly and all that...
Right or wrong - the babucrazy likes to play the underdog and never reveal its actual capabilities...
In the PLA owned Gobar Times world, not sure if that strategy can be sustained... an opportunity for Indian version of China Uncensored?

[kiranA]

String of pearls is popular theory not necessarily correct. It is popular with defense establishment because they can show it to get more budget allocations. It is popular with media because anti China rhetoric sells.

[ArjunPandit]

The hyperbole in "pearl of strings" makes me feel it was given by chinese analyst of booze or influenced by PRC or someone chinese

[Rudradev]

^^^shiv sir, the strategic analysts you mentioned are advocating a consistency in the policy. It's those people who opposed the Siachen handover to Pakistan. They have been working with the knowledge that India has already arrived and we don't need to be pusillanimous anymore.

What rudradev was talking about was with respect to the mea mandarins, who reached that level by mugging the competition success review, limca book of records etc.

No sir. Just to be clear, I was not.

I was talking about just about every "educated" Indian who grew up between 1950 and the present day, more or less. That of course includes MEA mandarins. But also strategic analysts: career establishment giants like Subhash Kapila and B Raman, contrarians like Brahma Chellaney and Bharat Karnad, and complete sellouts like Pratap Bhanu Mehta, MK Bhadrakumar, Ajai Shukla etc. Also the vast majority of people across all Indian govt services and the private sector, in all industries and in the media. In addition, many many people who don't do this sort of thing for a living but like to talk about it on places like BRF. Including Shiv, me, and you.

ALL of us have been subjected to the idea that there is "good G.K." and "bad G.K." We were incentivized to learn "good G.K.", rewarded for learning it, and sneered at for having bad or deficient G.K.

The problem is this. Just as "secularism" in India is essentially a Western/Christian-based ethical/social/political framework with only the overt theology stripped out... the "General Knowledge" that we all learned as kids is basically the Western/Christian grand narrative disguised as "reliable information for a well-rounded education".

Both "secularism" and "G.K." are trojan horses, peddled to us as something of "universal value for all mankind" but actually crafted in the service of a systematic agenda. Part of that agenda is to deny us our place in the world.

Shiv in his explorations of Western Universalism has recognized this ahead of most people and brought it to light here.

[shiv]

What you are saying is that we don't need to worry, as China can't threaten us, we are strong.

This is not what I am saying. You are imagining things. We have to be as vigilant and strong as we can get and stop creating imaginary stories of how weak we are. It is the constant whining, handwringing, breastbeating and crying that I object to - because thinking process stops when one is in utter grief. We have strengths. Count them. We have weaknesses. See where we can change that. No need to constantly say "China this China that ohhhhh we are gone". This is the normal "discourse" I see about China. China too has weaknesses and strengths. It is useless to compare Chinese strengths with our weaknesses for the purpose of a constant caterwaul and weeping that we are finished. This is considered "strategic" discussion and I mock and spit on that and will continue to do so as long as necessary.

Well, I can't stop worrying as what has been all along for centuries been India's sphere of influence is getting converted to China sphere of influence.

Kiranji - this is nonsense. The Indian ocean has had Arabs, Chinese and later the Portuguese and Brits. What you and a lot of Indians do is to build a strawman that gets blown down "Maldives was our baby - now gone", "nepal was our baby - now gone", Ocean was our pond - now gone". All these may have been British empire babies - but not Indian babies. See how we think like colonised citizens of the British empire? This only reinforces my point.

Get this rubbish out of your head and see that control of the ocean is an ongoing affair and we cannot sit on our asses because there will always be someone new. So don't pretend that all was well then and not well now. In fact there was a time in the 70s when the Shah of Iran was building such a powerful navy that it was seen as a threat. In 1971 it was the US navy. Today China is trying but they still cannot wield the type of power the US has in the Indian ocean.

When India is sensitive to the sensitivity of China, I get frustrated. China is an enemy no.1, there should be no accommodation for China, Tibet is not China. We have a Dharma to liberate Tibet.

Sorry this makes me laugh. You are using western - even ChristoIslamic words like "liberation" with the word "dharma" to make up your argument. You know that following Christ will also liberate you. It is not our duty to "liberate" Tibet. It is our dharma to liberate ourselves. No one is our friend. Not the US. Not Russia. Not China. We cannot be America's poodle and call China enemy number 1 because just 40 years ago USA and China were friends number 1 and Pakistan and USA are also friends number 1. We have to use friends when we get them and treat nations as enemies where necessary.

[TKiran]

^^^RD sir, there are apparent contradictions in the new analyses.

The earlier analysis was that China has never been a neighbour to India. Tibet has been the buffer state between China and India and that India had very good influence in Tibet, Tibet which is almost 75% of landmass of India but with a population of 6 million, and Lhasa is all that is there atleast hospitable. It's about 300 km from India either from Doklam or from Tawang and about 2000km away from China. Tibet was illegally occupied by China, so China is an enemy of India and it's India's Dharma to liberate Tibet.

Has anything changed in that narrative?

China trying to tame Himalayas and Tibet railway and Hanization is not in the interests of India. We should be consistent in our policies and oppose such taming by China at every opportunity.

What is new in the new analyses?

For example, Bramha chellaney has been consistently saying that China is diverting Tibet waters, the new analysis says, we need not panic, that is not happening. Nobody can stop bramhaputra. To me this analysis smells as if to whitewash the non-action of the current goi such analysis has been created,

Similarly, "CPEC is not going to work". To me it looks like whitewashing the current goi inaction. "There are no string of pearls".

Basically what these "CSR and Manorama analysts" are saying is that we have a wisdom that these actions by China in the recent times is changing the status quo, to the detriment of Indian interests, the new analysts are saying we can bury our heads in sands, there's no need to take any action.

This new analysis has not been helpful in my honest opinion.

There is huge confusion between personal Dharma and Raja Dharma. Personal Dharma says " everyone is going to die, so look inside you and liberate your self from suffering". Rajadharma says, "nation states do not die, it's the Dharma of a Raja to punish other states which are acting against your interests, do rajasuya and ashwamedha yagam. Constantly look outside and eliminate any threat to the country".

If Xi says, everyone is going to die one day, I am also going to die, so I should do good things to India before i die, that would have been good, but his Dharma is different.

[shiv]

China trying to tame Himalayas

What does "tame Himalayas" mean?