Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[TKiran]

Chinese tied us up with border management deals (it's a deal for China, sell-out for India) to blunt India's military advantages in that geography.

Only option for India is to occupy Lhasa, liberate Tibet autonomous region.

The new age analysts come up with fancy ideas which won't work.

[pankajs]

We are a *dharmic* country.

1. Once we accepted Tibet as part of China we will not go back on our words. How can anyone suggest we do a adharmic thing by breaking our word and "occupy Lhasa, liberate Tibet"?
2. Once we sign a agreement, in this case border management deals, we will not go back on our words.

Period. End of the story.

[TKiran]

^^^can you please shut up if you don't have any other work?

[pankajs]

^^^can you please shut up if you don't have any other work?

Is there any logic in that?

You are on a public forum to discuss so keep to the topic or around it. Getting personal is not going to get you anywhere. Calm down.

BTW, you where the one who injected "dharma" into the discussion. You especially must not get upset if it is reflected back on to you.

[nam]

Chinese tied us up with border management deals (it's a deal for China, sell-out for India) to blunt India's military advantages in that geography.

Only option for India is to occupy Lhasa, liberate Tibet autonomous region.

The new age analysts come up with fancy ideas which won't work.

Wouldn't capturing Lhasa/Tibet tie down more Indian resources in protecting Tibet against China attack than protecting LAC?

How is such a scenario advantages to India?

[pankajs]

^^
I must respectfully submit that he was trolling the forum you cannot counter that with logic. It does adds a bit of fun now and then.

[TKiran]

Chinese tied us up with border management deals (it's a deal for China, sell-out for India) to blunt India's military advantages in that geography.

Only option for India is to occupy Lhasa, liberate Tibet autonomous region.

The new age analysts come up with fancy ideas which won't work.

Wouldn't capturing Lhasa/Tibet tie down more Indian resources in protecting Tibet against China attack than protecting LAC?

How is such a scenario advantages to India?

Capturing Lhasa is not border management, it's war. China can't attack Lhasa, it's too far away from China

[shiv]

Only option for India is to occupy Lhasa, liberate Tibet autonomous region.

The new age analysts come up with fancy ideas which won't work.

I am sure occupying Lhasa is a great idea. We should take it up sometime.

[shiv]

Wouldn't capturing Lhasa/Tibet tie down more Indian resources in protecting Tibet against China attack than protecting LAC?

How is such a scenario advantages to India?

No actually its quite easy. Agreed there are a lot of Chinese troops in Lhasa - but they can't breathe properly. So we send our soldiers with firewood and we set it alight outside Lhasa. That will use up ocksygen and the Chinese soldiers will start choking. Our men are acclimatized. Then because of the heat from the burning firewood the pillars under Tibet railway will collapse as the permafrost melts. That way the Chinese soldiers will choke and railways won't work.

I am actually "warming" to this brillliant idea!

[SSridhar]

TKiran & pankajs, lay off each other.

Don't take discussions too personally.

[nam]

Capturing Lhasa is not border management, it's war. China can't attack Lhasa, it's too far away from China

Why wouldn't China counter attack if it looses Tibet? Xinjiang is right next door. What wouldn't PLA deploy in strength in Xinjiang . Not sure why this assumption.

Lhasa would be razed to ground by PLA Rocket forces. We have to maintain a large force to manage any PLA counter attack.

[TKiran]

Capturing Lhasa is not border management, it's war. China can't attack Lhasa, it's too far away from China

Why wouldn't China counter attack if it looses Tibet? Xinjiang is right next door. What wouldn't PLA deploy in strength in Xinjiang . Not sure why this assumption.

Lhasa would be razed to ground by PLA Rocket forces. We have to maintain a large force to manage any PLA counter attack.

Just see the geography, they can do diddly squat once they loose Lhasa. That's the constant fear they have about the India's military advantages. India is allowing China to have 'Tibet' cake. They can't eat.

[panduranghari]

.... there is deep hypocrisy in the way large countries treat smaller ones and there is very little the smaller countries can do about it. Cooperation is the best bet. .

Agreed. Due to geographic proximity, SL, BD, Pak, Maldives and surrounding nations WILL have to accept Indian suzerainty. Right now trying to play India against China will boomerang badly for these small nation states.

In a prolonged period of uncertainty, how certain can small nation states with small capital accounts and even smaller current accounts, sustain constant supply of petroleum by angering India?

[panduranghari]

I agree with Chola on that if US were to loose or chicken out after having initiated the trade war China will come out stronger from that dustup. Too early to say who will win this round.

China led RCEP, US led WTO, TPP where US has withdrawn already are all jostling for the same thing- market access.

Only Australia is a member of all- RCEP, WTO, TPP and also APEC.

How will China come out stronger? WTO is controlled by US. US let China into it in 2001. India wants to join TPP and APEC but not RCEP. So how does China win?

[nam]

Why wouldn't China counter attack if it looses Tibet? Xinjiang is right next door. What wouldn't PLA deploy in strength in Xinjiang . Not sure why this assumption.

Lhasa would be razed to ground by PLA Rocket forces. We have to maintain a large force to manage any PLA counter attack.

Just see the geography, they can do diddly squat once they loose Lhasa. That's the constant fear they have about the India's military advantages. India is allowing China to have 'Tibet' cake. They can't eat.

I disagree about Chinese not able to do diddly squat. However you are welcome to have your opinion.

Also my opinion , PLARF will raise Lhasa to ground. There will no Lhasa. There is no point capturing a wasteland.

[chola]

A fresh and original perspective like cool air in summer:

Understanding Chinese Mind: How can India use Doklam Standoff to its own advantage

https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... -advantage

Did Chola guru write this? Seems like it.

Wah?! Those paragraphs are my stuff down to the last word!

Well at least now I know my stuff is being read.

Reading my stuff elsewhere makes me realize how f—ing GOOD my essays are!

[ArjunPandit]

it has chola written all over it...of course he toned down a bit in public

[Philip]

If the Chins can suddenly say ghat Ar.Pr. is " Southern Tibet", we should've immediately said that Tibet was " Upper Ar.Pradesh" whatever or designated Tibet as COK.
Chinese Occupied Tibet. But which Indian govt. has the guts to do so? The Chins only respect steel and leaders of steel.RG and Gen. Sunderji showed them Indian steel at Sumdurong Chu.They backed off and tried for a long time to get Gen.S to visit China to meeg this courageous general.He finally went some years
after retirement.Great tragedy that he died early.

[TKiran]

Just see the geography, they can do diddly squat once they loose Lhasa. That's the constant fear they have about the India's military advantages. India is allowing China to have 'Tibet' cake. They can't eat.

I disagree about Chinese not able to do diddly squat. However you are welcome to have your opinion.

Also my opinion , PLARF will raise Lhasa to ground. There will no Lhasa. There is no point capturing a wasteland.

If there is no Lhasa, there's no Tibet. Same thing was told about SCS shoals, it's waste land. Waste land of Tibet is a security guarantor to India.

Doklam/Tawang to Lhasa is like "Bangalore to Madras", whereas from China to Lhasa is like "Kanyakumari to Srinagar and back to Kanyakumari."

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

Did Chola guru write this? Seems like it.

Wah?! Those paragraphs are my stuff down to the last word!

Well at least now I know my stuff is being read.

Reading my stuff elsewhere makes me realize how f—ing GOOD my essays are!

^^^^^^^^^
EVERYBODY, IMO plagiarism is a serious matter and not at all cool. Frankly, if you've written something on BRF and it's in the thread, date-stamped and time-marked in public like that, and then it turns up elsewhere under someone else's name, and/or without attribution to you, that's not cool, and you ought not let it pass. At least complain, and with your previous writings here date-stamped and time-marked, put them to proper shame.

While I'm on the subject, did I ever mention that I've set-up a tidy little electronic publishing house? I have all of the IP and access/systems to proceed, except the website isn't fully fleshed-out (I just checked, and remembered something I forgot long ago.) Bottom line: I can easily issue ISBNs for all manner of published materials, all of which will be formally archived in the National Library of Canada. More to my point here: I am seeking manuscripts and would love to formally publish some of the weightier written materials that have been fleshed-out and hammered-over by the writers here on BRF. Your cold, hard analysis is readable and of increasing interest. Works of fiction too. History. Science. Maths. Computer science. Submarine warfare. Metallurgy. Aviation. Plasma physics. Nuclear fuel cycles, etc., etc. I'll consider everything ***ORIGINAL*** to *YOU*, or otherwise I'll help you secure 'Publication Releases' wherein you acknowledge the inputs of others thoughts, ideas or MOST CERTAINLY DIRECT QUOTATIONS that you've included within your works. Failing that 'Publication Release' form signed by the original author/creator, that tidbit of the story gets omitted, and we'll consider publishing the remainder. That's the publishing process (omitting the pre-work of reviewing, editing, contracting -- yes, of course there will be a written 'Publishing Agreement', which you'll get to review prior to publication).

Who needs a Canadian Vija, when you've got a Canadian Publication?

Check it out: DigiNatal Electronic Publishing

I am not yet done with the website, but at least get in touch with me if you're interested.

shiv, I've been meaning to get that across to you especially, for some time now, but alas, I'm often distracted by other things.

[chanakyaa]

Sometimes we get so bogged down on the technical aspects of the adversary's (China or any other country) capabilities (size, military spending etc. etc.) that we tend to disregard simple analysis of how would the adversary behave if war actually happens. Following clip from Zhirinovsky, is absolutely hilarious. It is humor, with a subtle message. It has english subtitle and the guy speaks very fast.

[shiv]

If the Chins can suddenly say ghat Ar.Pr. is " Southern Tibet", we should've immediately said that Tibet was " Upper Ar.Pradesh" whatever or designated Tibet as COK.

Where have you been Rip van Winkle? Yak Herder has been saying that for 5 years on BRF and also suggested putting photos of God's Own Country - er North Arunachal on Google Earth in select places in Tibet

[shiv]

Until the early 20th century it was very difficult for any non Tibetans to enter Tibet. They were turned back or killed. But the Tibet of the Dalai Lama that we know is separated from us by a mountain range and accessible only by a few passes. "Greater Tibet" extends way north east into Han land and not all greater Tibetans have been loyal to the Dalai Lama. It would be, IMO a nice mental exercise of the sort we have done on BRF earlier to talk of how India might occupy Lhasa - but it has to be an "honest game" in which India is as likely to lose as win, or alternatively, a scenario needs building in which all possible Chinese defences along with offensives on other fronts can be "managed" to achieve the goal. Good timepass...

[SSridhar]

Close ties between China, Pak armies will help maintain regional peace: PLA - PTI

They are already joined at the hip. Any closer would mean PA coming under PLA's command.

Close ties between militaries of China and Pakistan will not only help maintain an all-weather partnership between the two countries but also the regional peace and global stability, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) said {'Regional peace' refers to balancing India and 'global stability' is an euphemism to convert Pakistan into another North Korea against the US or the QUAD} on Thursday.

China's 2.3 million-strong military is the world's largest, and Pakistan has emerged as the biggest consumer of the China-produced military hardware. In the past five years, Pakistan has bought 41 per cent of China's exported weapons, according to analysts.

Pakistan is seeking to make China its main supplier of military hardware, partly due to the looser financial terms offered by Beijing, replacing traditional suppliers from the west.

"China and Pakistan share all-weather partnership. We have maintained very high level of defence exchange and cooperation," Chinese military spokesman, Col Ren Guoqiang told a media briefing here.

"At the same time, I am very confident that military cooperation will help facilitate our state to state relationship and also in maintaining regional peace and international stability", he said.

Guoqiang's comments came in the backdrop of China selling a powerful tracking system in an "unprecedented deal" which could speed up the development of multi-warhead missiles by Pakistan. {That should read as follows: "The tracking system would provide a fig-leaf cover for transferring MIRV technology and MIRV-enabled missiles to Pakistan which can then claim that it has developed everything on its own}

Zheng Mengwei, a researcher with the state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Institute of Optics and Electronics in Chengdu, Sichuan province recently.

The researchers told the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post that Pakistan had bought a highly sophisticated, large-scale optical tracking and measurement system from China and deployed it "at a firing range" for use in testing and developing its new missiles.

China was the first country to export such sensitive equipment to Pakistan, CAS said.

The Post report attributed the sale of the equipment to Pakistan to India testing the most advanced nuclear-ready intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Agni-V with a range long enough to hit Beijing or Shanghai.

Chinese authorities declassified information about the sale of the tracking system yesterday.

While India's single-warhead missiles are bigger and cover longer distances, Pakistan has focused its efforts on developing multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), a type of missile carrying several nuclear warheads that can be directed towards different targets, the report said.

Unlike the US, which accounts for one-third of exports and supplies at least 100 countries, China delivered major arms to 44 countries, mostly in Asia and Africa.

More than 60 per cent of China's exports went to Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar and another 22 per cent went to Africa, a recent study report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.

[panduranghari]

If the Chins can suddenly say ghat Ar.Pr. is " Southern Tibet", we should've immediately said that Tibet was " Upper Ar.Pradesh" whatever or designated Tibet as COK.
Chinese Occupied Tibet. But which Indian govt. has the guts to do so? The Chins only respect steel and leaders of steel.RG and Gen. Sunderji showed them Indian steel at Sumdurong Chu.They backed off and tried for a long time to get Gen.S to visit China to meeg this courageous general.He finally went some years
after retirement.Great tragedy that he died early.

The current government is perhaps thinking on those lines. I do not think such things are meant to be said out loud unless you are Donald or Arvind.

[SSridhar]

India and Japan commit to Indo-Pacific strategy - The Hindu

India is Japan’s “most important” partner in its “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” said Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono, as both countries agreed to step up cooperation in their “Special Strategic and Global Partnership” during annual consultations and exchanged yen loan agreements for $1.4 billion.

“Our Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and India’s Act East Policy should be further merged,” said Mr. Kono, in remarks that appeared to target China’s actions in the South China Sea.

“Our growing convergence on economic and strategic issues is important for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region,” said External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.

Ms. Swaraj and Mr. Kono discussed a wide range of bilateral issues during the 9th India-Japan Strategic dialogue in Tokyo, while setting the agenda for the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Japan for the annual summit with PM Shinzo Abe.

[shiv]

hahahaha! Brilliant article that says evereything I have wanted to say and more but could not find words:

Military Power and the Allure of Technology
Lt Gen Prakash Menon

While technological innovation can be a captivating narrative for military superiority, India should not blindly buy into this optical power.

Military power derives its fundamental strength from its ability to threaten or use violence to secure political objectives. In human affairs, military power remains the ultimate determinant of conflict resolution. But nuclear weapons changed this basic assumption as the battlefield no longer offered the prospect of using violence to achieve substantial political objectives.

The battlefield instead moved to the realm of deterrence that was based on the notion that threats will keep the opponent at bay. The arena of threats has shifted from the traditional concept of battlefields to a multi-dimensional concept of a battlespace, which is imbued with a virtual character. In this new paradigm, the projection of power is more important than actual application of power. This optical power is derived from the power of the image supplanted with narratives that assures operational effectiveness. Elaborate displays of high-tech weapon systems are projected to reflect military capability. Embedded in military doctrines/concepts and adorned with eye-catching nomenclature like ‘Anti-Access Area-Denial’ and ‘Cold Start’, military power promises victory through operational virtuosity. It is a technophobic view where the political and social contexts are disregarded.

In March 2018, Russian President Vladimar Putin used an emotional speech accompanied by an animation of a cruise missile heading towards North America and claimed that Russia was developing weapons that can overcome any ballistic missile defences. Optical power is inherent in a military platform and can be exploited by high end photography and videos. Optical power serves to impress the viewer and project operational capabilities much beyond actuality. More often than not, optical power is merely a tall claim that does not stand the test of time or whose claims are often never tested in its lifetime. Platforms when accompanied by jargon like ‘stealth’ convey invincibility. Recently, the much-touted stealth capability of the J-20 aircraft of China was exposed for being phoney as the Indian Air Chief claimed that the aircraft was detectable by IAF radars. The Chinese may dispute this claim but the game of cat and mouse endures. This action-counteraction is the domain of deterrence where weapons are never used except for their power to create mirages to influence perception. The mind of opposing leaders, both civilian and military, is the battlespace.

China seems to be doing reasonably well in the above battlespace and appears to have convinced most of the world including even the USA, which in its capabilities is still not only way ahead in military power but also is the most battle-hardened. China has had no war experience to speak of, other than the 1962 Sino-Indian operations and the botched Vietnam invasion in 1979. Yet, China seems to have arrived militarily and that too incontestably! How does that happen? Because of the seduction by technology.

If technology were the main war-winning determinant, how is it that the US (the most powerful military power in the world) has lost most of the major conflicts it has taken part in after the Second World War? Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan provide ample proof that winning wars is different from winning tactical battles where the technological edge matters. Wars are fundamentally about people and their will to fight. It seems China has convinced the leadership of many countries, without fighting, that they are not only an economic power of consequence, but also that they are militarily very nearly right at the top. It would seem like Sun Tzu is alive and kicking!

But Sun Tzu’s ideas of winning without fighting has a fatal flaw. The defeated are not necessarily disarmed and they can rise again and strike back if conditions change and allow it. That is why Clausewitz advocates that it is better to impose your will preferably by extermination. China may win by use of psychological dominance, but that dominance has a shelf-life.

China has been using optical power to create false impressions about its military capability. It has spawned several of them which gullible analysts have meekly swallowed and helped propagate those impressions. Reports circulate of underground submarine pens in Hainan island that can accommodate twenty-five submarines, when only two or three is actually feasible. A newly-commissioned aircraft carrier is put on display to give the impression that China’s maritime power will soon be a match for the US. Actually, they require decades of experience to be fully exploited, and until China builds several of them in the next twenty years, Chinese naval vessels in the Indian Ocean will mostly be devoid of air-cover unless they are supported from offshore bases in countries like Pakistan which would however seriously restrict their operational reach. So, China’s military power in the Indian Ocean can be on display but its surface vessels cannot fight effectively.

China’s use of force has been in measured doses, just enough to frighten smaller nation-states, which does not give much room for the bigger bully, USA to rush and rescue the besieged. It would be reasonable to assume that China will not pick a fight with a major power and it would be amenable to retractions and wait out the issue. Indian strategic calculations should keep this in mind.

China’s military character is therefore one of impersonating strength to deter the big and medium powers while overwhelming smaller states through sheer size. Military power utilises its capacity to hover in the background while road and island building progresses. Doklam 1.0 is illustrative.

Cyber capacity is extensively utilised to steal technology and produce military platforms indigenously. The similarity of some military platforms to their western counterparts is indicative. Notably, Cybernetics is a domain where China advertises its considerable capacity including electronic warfare. But cyber activities by itself can hardly ensure nor deliver victory. It has the power to hurt albeit with temporary effect and its usefulness in a war between near equal powers is unknown.

There is no gainsaying the perception that one should never underestimate potential adversaries. China is arriving with considerable speed and heft and will continue to relentlessly pursue its geopolitical objectives until its demographic profile and internal problems catches up with its ambitions. But let us not be blindsided by optical power which is effective only in the make-believe world of deterrence where military can wear the cloak of strength via technological mirages. With the recent statement(s) of the Chief of Army Staff that, “China has arrived” and ongoing overtures by the political leadership towards China (including offloading of our traditional stance with regard to the Tibetans in India, silence and denial about Doklam 2.0) I would suspect that Indian statecraft has been impacted by the glare of China’s optical power. If true, India is on the menu instead of being at the global and regional geopolitical table.

[anupmisra]

Close ties between China, Pak armies will help maintain regional peace: PLA - PTI

They are already joined at the hip. Any closer would mean PA coming under PLA's command.

For all practical purposes, they may already be. TSPA's COAS is in Peking every month for his monthly reports and the follow up spanking. In exchange, he returns with a few toys to bray about.

[anupmisra]

China's military bravado and economic well being today is all about optics underpinned with smoke & mirrors. The gullible and the weak get easily attracted to that manipulated display of what is not evidently evident.

One must ask what the old Bollywood item song asks - what's behind the curtain (pardey key peechhey kya hai?)?

Remember this? This picture is from the peking Olympics, meant to intimidate and awe the feeble-minded, weak-kneed nations. What practical purpose would this serve was beyond anyone's imagination but it conveyed the impression that the chinis have arrived, technologically speaking.

[ashish raval]

Ashish ji,

Those may be long standing issues and will be solved due to the rules which mathematics imposes, no human input necessary.

But in the short term, the great power pretentions of China will be tested.

The way I see it is, the following things need to be balanced simultaneously:
1/ keep GDP numbers from falling - A
2/ spend surplus on BRI and keep the promises made. -A
3/ keep business profitability in light of increased expenses( tariffs) -A
4/ Prevent coalescing of allied interests by spending money -A
5/ decrease dependence on US dollar for settlement of trade imbalances -B

All A are dollar positive
All B are dollar negative

You may have thoughts on more dollar negative perspectives.

They certainly need enough US treasuries which they are damned if they hold and double damned if they sell.

Agree Sir. They are damned both ways. But the good practice of economics is that country should have 10 months of imports as dollar researves to cover liabilities. Bretton Woods system meant that researves should be minimum but we are observing that countries like up dollar researves. China imports approximately 1.8 trillion dollars worth raw materials so by simple logic it has to keep 1.5 trillion anyway and if it's is growing at the numbers they produce their researves should grow too. It is different thing as to that they maintain such high researves as assets to gain superior trade terms with Americans. To be fair Americans did enjoyed dollar privilege which was undue too. So both sides are equally to be blamed. One may be lesser than another.

[brvarsh]

चीनी देखो घोल दो, उनके नाड़े खोल दो| - One and only message for our Armed forces. China is nothing - All economy, all command control, all strategy goes down the drain when heads start falling down in numbers.

[pankajs]

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opi ... ina-policy
Why India is walking away from its tit-for-tat China policy {Prateek Joshi says ....}

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN1H70J3
Dalai Lama calls on Tibetans to remain united as India drifts toward China {Reuters was the source of the most of the recent reports about India bowling down to China. Because their stories are syndicated they appear all over the world.}

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 560844.cms
India slowly building military muscle from Ladakh to Arunachal on the China front

[Singha]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/on-dala ... ip-1831116

[shiv]

Serious question: If drones and robotic weapons can win and hold territory - why the hell are the Chinese putting troops in Doklam?

[ashish raval]

Serious question: If drones and robotic weapons can win and hold territory - why the hell are the Chinese putting troops in Doklam?

Because if my country has good hackers they can hack them and turn it back on their own soldiers

[SSridhar]

Signal of infra gap: 'Welcome to China' on phones in India - ToI

'Welcome to China' suddenly pops up on the screen of one's mobile phone, which has been dead for several hours, as one heads towards the border on a single, narrow and extremely bumpy road.

Displaying characters in Mandarin to indicate full connectivity, the phone promptly switches to Beijing time, which is two-and-a-half hours ahead of India. You then look across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to see the sprawling Tatu military complex of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which even includes a three-storey building, connected by a smooth, wide, seemingly metalled road.

"But we have no connectivity, whether it is roads or mobiles. It takes a mental toll. Even the evacuation of an injured soldier becomes a huge logistical challenge since the only road coming to Kibithu from Tezu is frequently blocked by landslides," says an Indian Army officer, keeping tabs on the PLA troops across the unresolved border in this 'east of the north-east' region.

"If the road is cut off during hostilities, we will not be able to move troops or equipment. The main operational challenge for us here is the lack of roads, bridges and inter-valley connectivity, not military equipment or manpower," he adds. In the entire Lohit Valley sector, for instance, there is no concrete bridge after Hawai, which is 76km south of Kibithu. Consequently, the Army is forced to make do with rickety foot-suspension bridges over the Lohit river, called Ngi Chu across the LAC, and an optical fibre communication line, which was laid way back in 2003 and has to be "maintained" on a daily basis over a 280-km stretch.

This grim situation is repeated all along the unresolved 4,057-km LAC stretching from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, with India's lack of border military infrastructure only serving to further compound the stark asymmetry with China in terms of military capabilities.

China's assiduous building of military infrastructure in the Tibet Autonomous Region, which includes 14 airbases, an extensive rail network and over 58,000km of roads, gives it the capability to swiftly induct and sustain 30-32 divisions (each with over 12,000 troops) against India. But this last-mile connectivity for Indian troops remains a distant dream till now. Only 28 of the 73 'strategic' all-weather roads, with more east-west lateral links as well as better access routes to strategic peaks and valleys, identified for construction almost two decades ago have been fully completed till now.

In eastern Arunachal Pradesh, for instance, the road heads are around 20 to 70 km away from the LAC in most stretches, forcing Indian troops to regularly undertake long-range patrols to "physically dominate" the country's claim lines in the treacherous terrain. "Unlike us, the Chinese troops largely remain in their rear areas because they can reinforce fast due to their infrastructure build-up," says an officer.

There is now a renewed but belated thrust on road and communication connectivity in the region, which has speeded up after the 73-day troop faceoff at Doklam near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction last year.

"We are working on 17 single-span bridges in the Lohit Valley area, which will be 35-to 74-metre long and capable of even carrying tanks. We are also working on a major bailey suspension bridge, which will be the first such one between Hawai and Kibithu," says Colonel Rajeev Dhingra, commander of the 48 Border Road Task-Force. The soldiers are keeping their fingers crossed.

[SSridhar]

India steps up vigil at Walong tri-junction - PTI

Indian troops deployed along the disputed Sino-India border in the Himalayan range of the Arunachal sector have increased their patrolling at a tri-junction of India, China and Myanmar to prevent a repeat of a Doklam-like standoff.

Near Tibet

The tri-junction is located around 50 km from Walong, India’s easternmost town in Arunachal Pradesh, near the Tibet region.

“After the Doklam stand-off, we have increased our presence on India’s side of the tri-junction as it is very important for us from the strategic dimension,” a senior Army official said, adding, “After the tri-junction in Doklam in the Sikkim sector, this is the most important tri-junction along the Sino-India border.”

The official said Chinese troops did not enter the tri-junction too frequently, but had developed road infrastructure near the area, which could be advantageous for the mobilisation of troops.

[Singha]

china has responded to US trade sanctions with some levies on US food products.

they cannot sanction the likes of boeing or GE or PW .... they will have to grit teeth and bide time until domestic projects mature....in near term perhaps shift more of bulk orders to airbus or cancel some long term boeing orders. even airbus uses pw and cfm(ge snecma) engines apart from RR so not easy to escape the dynamic duo.

[TKiran]

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney

One example of the Congressization of BJP's foreign policy: At the Dharamsala event (which was forced out of New Delhi), BJP representatives sought to placate China — from "Nehru to Modi," India has a "one China" policy and its ties with Dalai Lama are "spiritual" not "political"

[SSridhar]

India bracing for a 'hot' summer on China front after Doklam crisis - ToI

Indian security forces are bracing for a “hot” summer in the Himalayas along the Line of Actual Control with China this year. But unlike the Line of Control with Pakistan, where cross-border firing duels is the norm, it will be a battle of nerves in the shape of troop face-offs and transgressions without actual shots being fired on the China front.

The assessment by the Indian defence establishment is that at least half of the 23 “disputed and sensitive areas” identified on the 4,057-km LAC, stretching from eastern Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, are “likely to witness renewed muscle-flexing” by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with winter ebbing away now.

The two countries continue to maintain high operational alertness on their borders, with additional units deployed in forward areas, despite troop disengagement from the 73-day face-off at Doklam near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction last year.

With Chinese troops having now permanently occupied the Bhutanese territory of north Doklam by constructing bunkers, hutments, roads and helipads to sustain their troops in the area, the number of PLA “transgressions” across the LAC into what India perceives to be its territory has also shown a significant jump. If 273 transgressions (military euphemism for incursions) were recorded in 2016, the number touched 426 last year.

“We are keeping a close watch on the Chinese activity. We are also conducting regular and special long-range patrols (LRPs) to the 18 mountain passes in the region to physically dominate the LAC,” said a senior officer of 2 Infantry Mountain Division, responsible for “maintaining the sanctity” of the 386-km stretch of the LAC in the rugged terrain of Dibang, Dau-Delai and Lohit Valleys in Arunachal Pradesh.

Indian troops, of course, also conduct “aggressive patrolling’’ in all the three sectors of the LAC -- western (Ladakh), middle (Uttarakhand, Himachal) and eastern (Sikkim, Arunachal) – to strengthen claims to disputed territories. “In fact, we patrol much more than the PLA,” said an officer.

The rival troops often leave behind “tell-tale signs” in the shape of cigarette packets and cans or painted rocks to declare it their territory. “If the rival troops come face-to-face, there are laid down steps like banner drills to defuse the situation. Issues on the LAC are resolved through established mechanisms like border personnel meetings, flag meetings and hotline calls,” said another officer.

But the confrontations can get quite prolonged like they did during the Depsang and Chumar face-offs in eastern Ladakh in 2013-2014. The disputed areas in Ladakh range from Trig Heights, Demchok and Dumchele to Chumar, Spanggur Gap and Pangong Tso.

In Arunachal, the flashpoints are Namkha Chu, Sumdorong Chu, Asaphila, Dichu, Yangtse and Dibang Valley. In the Dibang Valley, the hotspots are the so-called “Fish Tail-I and II” areas, which take their name from the shape the LAC takes in the region. In the middle sector, in turn, the disputed areas include Barahoti, Kaurik and Shipki La.