Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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TKiran
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by TKiran »

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
·
Apr 6
Nepal currently produces less than 1,000 megawatts of electricity for its 30 million citizens from all sources. India is an energy exporter to Nepal. India cannot threaten not to buy power from any Chinese-built dam project in Nepal because it will be fully consumed within Nepal.
darshhan
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by darshhan »

g.sarkar wrote:
SSridhar wrote: So, Russia would become the 24th province with 23rd being Pakistan. Or, 7th Autonomous region with 6th being Pakistan.
Russian Far East berongs to China. China has thousands of maps to prove that. Russia has no use for this land and China needs its Lebensraum.
Gautam
The only problem is that Chinese population fertility rate(1.57) is itself well below replacement level. Which means population will or already has started declining. Combine that with increased income and material prosperity of the average chinese citizen, I doubt if the average chinese would be interested in relocating to Siberia or Kamchatka. So I seriously wonder from where will they find people who are willing to settle in such inhospitable climes. I mean how low the temperature dips in these places. Is it -30 deg or -40 deg. Maybe convicts. That is about it.
yensoy
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ That is spot on. There will be more Han ghar wapsi back from Tibet & Sinkiang to the traditional Han homelands.
nam
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by nam »

TKiran wrote:Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
·
Apr 6
Nepal currently produces less than 1,000 megawatts of electricity for its 30 million citizens from all sources. India is an energy exporter to Nepal. India cannot threaten not to buy power from any Chinese-built dam project in Nepal because it will be fully consumed within Nepal.
I don't understand this quote. If Nepal wants to build dams for its own consumption, please go ahead.

India comments are with respect to OBOR, which Nepal has openly supported. Cpec,obor etc in south Asia will not work without a market. And that market in India.

India just poured water to Chinese plan of using Nepal as a springboard to sell into India.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by fanne »

Brahma Chellney Sir,
With all due respect. This is very superficial analysis (unbecoming of your stature...)
Nepal may need all that electricity - It does not have either the connectivity to provide (terrain and general lack of infra) or its consumer rich enough to pay for it, even if this electricity came knocking at their door. To overcome the infra deficit, it has to spend 2x-5x the amount it is spending on the dam and then raise the general income of its population.
Keeping that in mind, short term, medium term and dare I say long term, they have to sell that power to India to make it economically viable. And we can use this leverage (sorry we must use this leverage) to roll back Chinese influence in Nepal.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by g.sarkar »

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/china ... 180408.htm
China protests India's 'transgression' in Arunachal; our land, says India
At the border personnel meeting, China also accused the Indian side of damaging its road building equipment when a road laying party left its gear in Tuting in December last year following a protest by India.
Manash Pratim Bhuyan reports.
In yet another incident of discord, the Chinese military last month strongly protested against what it called the Indian Army's transgressions into the strategically sensitive Asaphila area along the disputed border in Arunachal Pradesh, but the Indian side roundly dismissed the complaint, official sources said.
They said the Chinese side raised the issue at a border personnel meeting on March 15 in Arunachal's Kibithu but the Indian Army rejected it, saying that the area in the upper Subansiri region of Arunachal Pradesh belongs to India and it has regularly been carrying out patrols there.
The sources told PTI that the Chinese side called India's patrolling in the area a "transgression" and the Indian Army objected to the terminology.
"China's protest to our patrolling in Asaphila is surprising," said a source, adding there were several instances of Chinese intrusions in the area which had been seriously taken up by the Indian side in the past.
Under the BPM mechanism, both sides can register their protest over any incident of transgressions as there are varying perceptions about the Line of Actual Control between the two countries.
The delegation of China's Peoples Liberation Army specifically mentioned extensive patrolling in Asaphila by Indian troops, saying such "violations" may escalate tensions between the two sides in the area.
However, rejecting the Chinese protest, the Indian side said its troops were aware of the alignment of the LAC and the army would continue to carry out patrols up to the LAC, the de facto border between the two countries.
....
Gautam
shiv
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

fanne wrote:Brahma Chellney Sir,
With all due respect. This is very superficial analysis (unbecoming of your stature...).
The man has gone bonkers.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

After ‘gift’ return, India calls Maldives’ bluff on Dornier - Sachin Parashar, ToI
Top government sources revealed to TOI that the Yameen government had not just refused to renew the LoE for the ALH operating from Addu atoll but had also not responded to an advance offer by India to renew the LoE for the other ALH based in Laamu atoll. This effectively means that Male wants both Indian choppers out.

The LoE for the Laamu chopper expires this month and while India had offered to renew it in January this year, Male has not responded to it yet. It's at Laamu, one of the southernmost atolls, where the Chinese are said to be considering building a port. This location is significant because, as TOI said in a report in April 2016, it sits at the entrance to the one-and-a-half degree channel, a major international shipping passage passing through the Maldives.

For India, complete opacity and lack of sincerity on the part of Maldives on almost all major bilateral issue has seriously undermined, as a source put it, the traditional trust and consultation-based relationship built over the past five decades.

The government at the highest level has been stunned by the desperation shown by the Maldives in wanting to remove Indian choppers. In naval parlance, the Dhruv ALH is known as a little bird which requires minimal space. There's little maintenance cost involved for Maldives and the Gan Airport In Addu is big and underutilized. A report in the Maldivian media said that the presence of Indian naval personnel along with the chopper had become a "source of irritation" for the local government.

The desperation has naturally led to speculation within the Indian establishment that the Chinese might have had a role in this. Addu is also strategically located at Equatorial Channel and close to Diego Garcia.
Singha
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Singha »

^^^ no-action-rakshaks can find some fig leaf to explain our meek withdrawal when it happens....

fig trees have leaves all the year round, ready to pluck
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ShauryaT »

Defense Primer
Sorry for the formatting, just posting the TOC.
China’s Military rise and the indian Challenge 4
harsh V. Pant & Pushan das

the Chinese People’s liberation army in transition: implications for 16 indian defence
richard a. Bitzinger

achieving india’s Military goals in an era of transition 26
lt. gen. s l narasimhan (retd.)

Closing the gap: a doctrinal & Capability appraisal of the iaF & 35 the PlaaF
aVM arjun subramaniam (retd.)

indian Vasuki vs Chinese dragon: towards a Future-ready 44 indian seapower
radM sudarshan shrikhande (retd.)

indian Military in transformation - Combat Potential and Military 55 Capabilities Vis – a – Vis China
Brig. arun sahgal (retd.)

Managing Comprehensive Competition with China: insights from 72 Multi-domain Battle
arzan tarapore

Virtual domains and real threats: Chinese Military Capacities in 83 new Frontiers of Warfare
elsa B. Kania

nuclear Weapons and sino-indian security relations 92
s. Paul Kapur and diana Wueger
shiv
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

My suspicion is that Maldivians are hardly a "loyal and dharmic" bunch who will get all upset and chaddi-knotted and say "Cheenis are our friends and we only want them". Even the most incompetent bum with a fractional criminal mind - will understand that this is the time to look for a bribe from India. I suspect that India will give the bribe in the form of "Diplomatic negotiations and discussion of continuing cordial India-Maldives relations". Excuse my French, but in international relations everyone is a bhenchod. No nice people
pankajs
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by pankajs »

shiv wrote:
fanne wrote:Brahma Chellney Sir,
With all due respect. This is very superficial analysis (unbecoming of your stature...).
The man has gone bonkers.
When people don't understand the basics are stuck in the past or unwilling to apply their minds this is the end result.

What is the first picture that comes to mind about Nepal? How do you supply electricity economically to a hamlet of 25 houses in a hilly area where the cost to pull such a line will run in crores? Except for the Terai region and urban clusters how will it work?

It is the same problem faced by India in its hilly and remote area but India has the plains/cities to cross subsidize much of such a network. Even then GOI has found it to be a struggle.

And what is the Nepalese demand vs its hydro potential? Let is produce and ship its power to Tibet or China proper.
kancha
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kancha »

Folks, posted a thread on twitter on the Chinese peacekeepers running away under fire in South Sudan in July 2015. One of the few documented instances of the performance of the PLA in actual operations in recent past.
Do have a look

Twitter Link
Blog Link
arun
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by arun »

X Posted from the Defanging and Neutering Chinese threat thread to the Indian Foreign Policy, CPEC and OBOR threads.

From some 3 weeks ago though I do not recollect seeing it posted here on BRF; so here goes.

Excerpt from transcript of interview of Indian Ambassador to the Peoples Republic of China, Gautam Bambawale, by the South China Morning Post on Doklam, CPEC / OBOR / BRI, Quadrilateral, PRC foray into India’s bailiwick on the Indian Sub-Continent etc.:
India and China must be frank with each other to prevent another Doklam, ambassador warns

New Delhi’s envoy to Beijing blames China for last summer’s military stand-off, saying it ‘changed the status quo in the region’

PUBLISHED : Saturday, 24 March, 2018, 12:04pm
UPDATED : Saturday, 24 March, 2018, 1:45pm ……………………

What’s your evaluation on the existing communication mechanism between India and China?

We have a lot of dialogue between India and China, especially at the political level, and also at the economic level. I just give you one example, we have something called the Joint Economic Group between India and China, which is led on the Chinese side by the commerce minister, and the commerce and industry minister from the Indian side.

Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan will be in India later this week for the Joint Economic Group, and where they will discuss how to improve the trade relations and investments between India and China.

So these are the dialogues that already exist. But especially on the political level, we must be very frank and open and candid with each other. There are some issues and problems between India and China, if we have to solve those problems, we need to talk about the problems candidly.

That’s what I mean about the candid discussion. Also both governments of China and India have been saying that we must maintain strategic communication, and what I think when they talk about strategic communication, it means frank and candid discussion.

Only through talking frankly and candidly, we will be able to solve the issues and problems say boundary problem, and understand each other’s concerns. And I have said in my public remarks yesterday that the most important problem between India and China is the boundary problem. It is a leftover from history, but today’s governments are trying to tackle it. We are giving it a high priority. But only when both sides talk to each other very frankly and candidly, will we be able to resolve this boundary issue and decide on a boundary.

Is China transparent enough, maybe in relation to Doklam construction and army deployment?

We have good dialogue with China. We talk to China at many different levels, we talk to them at the official level, military authorities, foreign ministers and our leaders – Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping – have an excellent communication.

Both national leaders meet at least two or three times a year because both nations are members of many important international organisations as G20, BRICS and SCO and they have their own bilateral discussions. So there is a very good communication between the leaders, but we need to have better communication down the line.

I agree with you to the extent that both sides must be candid with each other and frank with each other. We must say what is happening on the ground and so on.

Many people say that everything the Chinese are doing is kept in dark and that’s where the gap and misunderstanding always happens so in your communications with Chinese officials, do you think that they are transparent enough in addressing India’s concerns?

I think that both sides have to address each others’ concerns. In fact, there are two principles that India has suggested to China, and I think we have broad agreement.

One is that each side must be sensitive to the other side’s aspirations, their concerns, their priorities and so on. And the second is that we must not allow differences to become disputes.

For example, we might have differences of opinion on Belt and Road, but that we must not allow that difference of opinion to become a dispute.

And I think for this, we need to have frank and candid discussions. We already have frank and candid discussions, but I mean we need to be more frank and candid with each other.

What kind of lessons can be learned from Doklam issue and what are the reasons leading to the rise of tensions and confrontations?

The India-China boundary is un-demarcated and un-delineated, so we have to talk to each other to delineate and demarcate it, which means to draw the boundary line. Now in the meantime, while we are discussing where the boundary will lie, both China and India have agreed that we should maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas.

Now for last 30 years, not a single shot had been fired between the India-China border, which shows that we have been successful at maintaining peace and tranquillity.

Even during the Doklam incident, a very serious incident, there was no firing, we were able to maintain peace and tranquillity.

I think this is a successful example of diplomacy between our two countries. But we need to move further to actually solve the problem, which is to draw the boundary line. The boundary is quite long between India and China – roughly 3,500km.

In order to maintain the peace and tranquillity, there are certain areas, certain sectors which are very sensitive, where we must not change the status quo. If anyone changes the status quo, it will lead to a situation like what happened in Doklam.

I can tell you very frankly and you can quote me on this. The Chinese military changed the status quo in the Doklam area and therefore India reacted to it. Ours was a reaction to the change in the status quo by the Chinese military.

So it is an issue as you say that even though the two countries have high level communications, it needs to be brought down to practical levels?

I agree entirely that it has to be brought down to practical levels. It shows that when incidents like Doklam happened last year, it means that we were not frank enough and candid enough with each other. So we need to increase the level of frankness.

What do you mean by not frank enough and candid enough?

In the sense that if the Chinese military are going to build a road, then they must tell us ‘we are going to build a road’. If we do not agree to it then we can reply that, ‘look, you’re changing the status quo. Please don’t do it. This is a very very sensitive area’.

After the Doklam incident some reports suggest that road construction and military deployment in the Western Theatre Command is actually increasing or at least continuing?

No, I can tell you that you in Doklam area, which we call close proximity or sometimes the face-off site, the area where there was close confrontation or close proximity between Indian and Chinese military troops, that there is no change taking place today. Maybe behind the Chinese may be putting more military barracks to put in more soldiers, but that is well behind the sensitive area. Those are the things you’re free to do and we are also free to do, because you’re doing it inside your territory and we are doing it inside our territory.

Has communication been stepped up after the incident?

At the political level communication has come back to place. So we had Yang Jiechi visit India last year in December. And we will continue to have such discussions. But more importantly, I think we need to have discussions between the two militaries. That has not fully resumed.

It has resumed to a certain extent, the troops on the ground can talk to each other, that has resumed, but the communication between the headquarters – say the Central Military Commission in Beijing and the Military Headquarters in Delhi – that communication has not yet resumed and we would like it to resume as soon as possible.

What’s the stumbling block?

There is no stumbling block, but we have to just move them to meet quickly, sooner rather than later. I think that it will happen sometime during the next few months.

At the political level, as you said Mr Modi and Xi Jinping are meeting 2-3 times a year, are there any high-level visits planned between the two nations?

Prime Minister Modi will visit Qingdao on June 9-10 for the Summit of the SCO. During that, we will definitely have bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping. And before that happens we want to have a lot of other meetings. One example is the Commerce Minister’s visit. We will have a whole series of meetings in the next few weeks and months. Another example, on the 22 and 23 March, we will have a meeting of Director General of the Boundary Department of Chinese Foreign Ministry with his Indian counterpart. We are having these meetings to have candid and frank discussions.

Any State-level visits being planned?

At this stage, we know that Prime Minister Modi will come to Qingdao in June this year.

There are many concerns about the Belt and Road Initiative. China is purchasing and renting so many ports in South Asia especially Pakistan. How is the concern in India addressed? What are the tactics that India is thinking of using to counter rising Chinese influence in South Asia?

Let me tell you very clearly that India has its own relationships with all these countries. These are very strong relationships and India is also doing a lot of projects in all these countries, such as the Maldives, Nepal or Sri Lanka. So, our relationships with these countries are very strong, they are historical, people-to-people contacts. I give you an example. You know between Nepal and India, there is an open border. So people can come to India without any visa, and the reverse is also the case.

So, we have very strong relationships with all these countries and we are confident that this relationship will become even stronger and richer in the coming months and years. So I don’t think we are worried about what China is doing. Those countries are free to have relationships with any third country, including China.

So you don’t think there is rivalry between India and China?

No, no. Let me tell you very clearly. As far as India is concerned, India does not look upon China as a rival or a competitor. We look upon China as a partner in progress and development. And let me give you an example of this. The trade between China and India reached the highest level ever, US$84.5 billion in 2017, even after the Doklam problem. Still, investment from China into India is increasing and investments from India into China are also increasing.

In fact, last year, there have been two success stories in the economic sector that I kept telling everyone – not only in Hong Kong but in Beijing as well. One is, of course, Xiaomi becoming the single largest mobile headset provider in India. Samsung used to be the leader, but now it has become number two. This shows there’s a big market in India and we want more Chinese companies to come and invest and sell in India. Another success story is an Indian Bollywood movie called Dangal. It became such a big hit in China.

I will tell you why it is important. It shows that Chinese people are open to watching Bollywood movies. I think from watching those movies they understand India better. And by understanding each other better, we will be able to have greater trust between each other. That’s why these examples are very important.

Global Times interviewed me and asked me questions like this, ‘why do Indian people not like China and why you dislike Chinese people?’ And I asked them ‘where did you get this idea from? Actually we have great admiration for China and what China has achieved in the last forty years. If there is any such thing you were talking about, would Xiaomi become the number one handset maker in India?’ And, conversely, Chinese people have nothing against India. If it was the case, would Dangal had become a hit, one of the largest selling non-Chinese films in whole of China?

Talking about movies, there is a quota for the number of foreign movies in China.

We know that there is a quota reserved for non-Chinese movies. We are working with the Chinese Government to increase the quota for Indian movies in China, especially now when Chinese audiences are liking Indian movies.

But are there any investment restrictions or security screening that has impacted you?

No, that hasn’t really impacted us.

India is concerned about the Belt and Road initiative. On the other hand, it is a key member of AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). So what kind of project do you think AIIB should do?

We have said this very openly in international fora. When we talk about development projects or connectivity projects, they must be transparent, fair and equal. There are certain internationally accepted norms for such projects.

If a project meets those norms, we will be happy to take part in it. One of the norms is the project should not violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a country. Unfortunately, there is this thing called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is called a flagship project of Belt and Road Initiative, which violates India’s sovereignty and territory integrity. Therefore, we oppose it.

There is some discussion about a quadrilateral – India, Australia, Japan and the US – these 4 countries should step up their strategic alliance for infrastructure projects. What is India’s take on that?

We are ready to do infrastructure projects anywhere in the world, including in India, which meets these criteria: of being open, being open to everyone, being fair, being transparent, protecting the environment. We are willing to do projects. As far as four countries are concerned, let me tell you very clearly that India has never been a part of any alliance. I think countries like India and China are too big to be part of any alliance. We both have very independent policies; domestic policies as well as foreign policies. I do not see that India is going to be a part of any alliance.

India will work with all countries in the world to improve and increase its interests. Wherever our interests converge we will work together like in climate change and environment protection. India and China work very closely together on many international issues like environmental protection and counter-terrorism. We will continue to work with anyone, where we find that there is a synergy. We will work with China definitely on these issues.

I do not see India becoming part of any alliance. Let me also repeat what I have already said to you before. In fact if we do follow some of these principles such as not letting differences of opinion becoming disputes, of doing projects which are not opaque but open; transparent and meet ecological and environmental standards; does not violate anyone’s territorial integrity, then we will find a situation where the Chinese dragon and the Indian elephant will actually be dancing together.

{b]Does India have any common concerns or shared interests with Japan, the US and Australia concerning China’s rise?[/b]

No, we do not have any problem with China’s rise. I will talk about India; I cannot talk for the other countries. India has no concerns about China’s rise. In fact, India looks at China’s rise as something which also gives us encouragement that India can also do at least some of the things that China has done, which is to develop economically and develop rapidly. So, I don’t think that China’s rise creates any concerns in India.

In fact none of the things that India does with any country is aimed at a third country, including China. I can repeat myself that India and China are not rivals. India does not look upon China as a competitor or a rival; in fact we look upon China as partner in progress and development. We would like to learn a little bit from China about how to progress and, as I told you earlier, Hong Kong can play a very important role. I remember and, you will also remember, when in the 1980s China was just opening and the reform policy was just starting, it was Hong Kong companies and Hong Kong firms which built expressways, which built bridges, which built power plants in China. So I think Hong Kong can play a very important role in the development and progress of India also.

There is always concern that China is becoming more assertive or even aggressive at the international stage. Structurally, the presidential term is now removed and they are putting together a strong diplomatic line-up with Wang Qishan becoming the vice-president and taking care of China’s international affairs. Therefore, China looks more determined to raise issues of territorial integrity and its sovereign interests. What’s Indian’s assessment on that?

Look, the removal of the term limits and new team for foreign affairs and all that is China’s internal matter; I don’t want to say anything on that. That is for China and the people of China to decide. As far as China’s rise is concerned, as I told you we do not have any concern about it. We only look upon it as something which encourages us to do better in India’s economic development, India’s economic progress and social progress.

What is basically happening today is that both China and India also to a certain extent are re-emerging on the international stage and becoming very important players. Many centuries ago in the 1600 and 1700s, both China and India were very important economic powers in the world. Now in the 21st century, we are seeing a re-emergence, of both China and India to some extent, on the world stage from a geo-political and geo-economic point of view. Again, I will repeat myself, we don’t see any rivalry, competition or threats from China, we only look at China as a partner in progress and development.
South China Morning Post:

India and China must be frank with each other to prevent another Doklam, ambassador warns : New Delhi’s envoy to Beijing blames China for last summer’s military stand-off, saying it ‘changed the status quo in the region’
shiv
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

pankajs wrote: What is the first picture that comes to mind about Nepal? How do you supply electricity economically to a hamlet of 25 houses in a hilly area where the cost to pull such a line will run in crores? Except for the Terai region and urban clusters how will it work?

It is the same problem faced by India in its hilly and remote area but India has the plains/cities to cross subsidize much of such a network. Even then GOI has found it to be a struggle.

And what is the Nepalese demand vs its hydro potential? Let is produce and ship its power to Tibet or China proper.
China will probably use the same model as in Pakistan to build a Hydel station and then demand high prices for power. Nepal may be thinking that they can palm off excess power to India and make money to pay the Chinese. Looks like they have another think coming. The Chinese can build the station and take the power too.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by g.sarkar »

You tube is now full of nuggets of current rona and dhona of pakis, dealing with their free fall of the Puke rupee and the coming economic disaster. I found some that are interesting:
Pakistanis complaining that Chinese tenants are eating dogs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2-GnzFF4zY
And this:
Pakistani Can't even Run Restaurant on CPEC Route due to Chinese eating Pork Dog meat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgGvL3qrzQs

Gautam
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by pankajs »

As I had written before given the obvious economic disparity between India and China, our best bet is to hope these countries, bakistan in this case, come face to face with the Chinese at the earliest. The real fun will start when the repayment of loans have to start, perhaps by 2022 but I can't be sure without digging further.

Sri Lanka has already had a close call with China and if it does not think and reconsider its strategy, well best of luck. India just has to ensure that we have the proper intelligence and missile forces necessary to take care of the Chinese when the push comes to shove.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

shiv wrote:My suspicion is that Maldivians are hardly a "loyal and dharmic" bunch who will get all upset and chaddi-knotted and say "Cheenis are our friends and we only want them". Even the most incompetent bum with a fractional criminal mind - will understand that this is the time to look for a bribe from India. I suspect that India will give the bribe in the form of "Diplomatic negotiations and discussion of continuing cordial India-Maldives relations". Excuse my French, but in international relations everyone is a bhenchod. No nice people
Quite true boss.. the Chinese largesse for the politicos involved in all the involved countries is the only reason ., either through business men involved or directly.. do any politician actually serve their country without serving themselves first ..at least not in India's neighbourhood. Time to squeeze where it matters.. Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives for starters.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

Lure of honey is more than threatening action that may or may not happen.. given India's history of self restraint..not impossible to make a lesson out of one of the errant countries.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by pankajs »

As Shiva saar has said before a Gun speaks louder than money when the push comes to shove. Till then they can have all the money they want.

BTW, this is how China intends to win i.e. They want to win by default by scaring opponents and folks fall for it.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... ng-missile
Honour for Chinese spy killed for tipping off Taiwan during missile crisis
As Beijing conducted a series of missile tests near the island, People’s Liberation Army major general Liu Liankun told his Taiwanese handlers that the missiles did not have warheads and Beijing had no plan to attack Taiwan.

The PLA officer was executed on the mainland as a traitor in August 1999 after his leak was indirectly exposed by then Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui.
That is not to say that they will not fight but they are in to bluff big time.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

kit wrote:
shiv wrote:My suspicion is that Maldivians are hardly a "loyal and dharmic" bunch who will get all upset and chaddi-knotted and say "Cheenis are our friends and we only want them". Even the most incompetent bum with a fractional criminal mind - will understand that this is the time to look for a bribe from India. I suspect that India will give the bribe in the form of "Diplomatic negotiations and discussion of continuing cordial India-Maldives relations". Excuse my French, but in international relations everyone is a bhenchod. No nice people
Quite true boss.. the Chinese largesse for the politicos involved in all the involved countries is the only reason ., either through business men involved or directly.. do any politician actually serve their country without serving themselves first ..at least not in India's neighbourhood. Time to squeeze where it matters.. Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives for starters.
If you look at it why the hell does the Maldives have 2 Dhruv helos with Indian personnel there? The work they do (apart from possible snooping) is saving the Maldives government money which they can pocket. Even if a Maldivian thug bought a helo from Europe - they would have to pay the whole price AND more for the bribe. No such trouble is needed for looting the Maldivian exchequer if India is giving free helo and crew. I bet my left ball those Dhruvs have been used for private transport of Maldivian VIPs. Does anyone think Siddu or Mamata would refuse a gift helo for state use from the Central government?

Has anyone heard of any businessman who says "No I don't want money from X source because Y source is giving me money?" Maldives will take money from India and China.A whore will not refuse 2 customers in favour of one.

Many of us - as honest people are ascribing honesty and integrity to both India and the Maldives of which I personally can see none, either in India or in the Maldives.
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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Peregrine »

Hong Kong can take decision on Nirav Modi's arrest: China
BEIJING: China on Monday said that Hong Kong can accede to India's request to arrest fugitive Indian diamond merchant Nirav Modi based on local laws and mutual judicial assistance agreements.
Cheers Image
kit
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

shiv wrote:
kit wrote:
If you look at it why the hell does the Maldives have 2 Dhruv helos with Indian personnel there? The work they do (apart from possible snooping) is saving the Maldives government money which they can pocket. Even if a Maldivian thug bought a helo from Europe - they would have to pay the whole price AND more for the bribe. No such trouble is needed for looting the Maldivian exchequer if India is giving free helo and crew. I bet my left ball those Dhruvs have been used for private transport of Maldivian VIPs. Does anyone think Siddu or Mamata would refuse a gift helo for state use from the Central government?

Has anyone heard of any businessman who says "No I don't want money from X source because Y source is giving me money?" Maldives will take money from India and China.A whore will not refuse 2 customers in favour of one.

Many of us - as honest people are ascribing honesty and integrity to both India and the Maldives of which I personally can see none, either in India or in the Maldives.
Agree, so what could be the reason for refusing the helos? .. to please the Chinese who are offering more moolah / honey ??
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by TKiran »

Andrew J Phelan
@ajphelo
·
Apr 4
Welcome to China’s west coast


Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
Adding another pearl to China's "string of pearls"? Kyaukpyu, located along the Bay of Bengal coast, is of major strategic and economic value for China, which, under a deal with Myanmar, will own 70% of the new port that it is building there. (link: https://goo.gl/R4mrf6) goo.gl/R4mrf6
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

kit wrote:
shiv wrote:
Agree, so what could be the reason for refusing the helos? .. to please the Chinese who are offering more moolah / honey ??
It's there in my post. They will try and squeeze more from India.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

TKiran wrote:Andrew J Phelan
@ajphelo
·
Apr 4
Welcome to China’s west coast


Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
Adding another pearl to China's "string of pearls"? Kyaukpyu, located along the Bay of Bengal coast, is of major strategic and economic value for China, which, under a deal with Myanmar, will own 70% of the new port that it is building there. (link: https://goo.gl/R4mrf6) goo.gl/R4mrf6
Chellaney is late Latif :roll: This is all old hat

Watch for 2 minutes from the point linked below. All you should know about Kyaukpyu but Chellaney didn't tell
https://youtu.be/UPWq32DP7u8?t=383
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ShauryaT »

@Shiv: Please give BC some slack, he is in the propagation business. Very few from the civilian world who track these issues. Yes, he can get boring, alarmist, repetitive but feel we need more of them, so that policymakers can hear these noises. At this time they are DEAF!
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

ShauryaT wrote:@Shiv: Please give BC some slack, he is in the propagation business. Very few from the civilian world who track these issues. Yes, he can get boring, alarmist, repetitive but feel we need more of them, so that policymakers can hear these noises. At this time they are DEAF!
Shaurya giving people slack is a slippery slope because "provoking anxiety and fear" is what sells. Good news is no good. Bad news is discussed ad nauseam.

I am not saying there should be no bad news - but please watch those 2 minutes of video and see how many years this kyaukpyu business has been going on and how it all started.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Prem »

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ArjunPandit »

^^shiv sir, given the slack that has percolated the babudom, such fear mongering might actually help. Otherwise the sleeping dogs would have been sleeping forever.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ShauryaT »

The China Chronicles

About 15 articles in the past few months.
The China Chronicles is a weekly web series that explores the rise of China as a global player along multiple axes: political, diplomatic, economic, social, and cultural. It aims to provoke a wider and more nuanced debate in India on the implications of a rising China as it implicates Asia and the wider world.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ShauryaT »

The sobering arithmetic of a two-front war
Read the whole thing and see how superficial the analysis is without factoring terrain and objectives or suitability of assets for the terrain or its generational age or India's induction of MBRL's in lieu of artillery or India's own missile forces. Given the numbers presented, it is actually quite encouraging that the goals of the Indian military to be able to "defend" in the case of a two-front war even at this stage when the power differential between China and India is at its widest - ever - in history is quite credible from a defensive standpoint.
As relations with both China and Pakistan continue to deteriorate, Indian policy-makers now find themselves contemplating the unpleasant possibility of a 'two-front' war with both countries. Whether such a war would be overtly collusive or not between China and Pakistan – that is, whether they would pre-plan a joint attack on India or it would be a case of strategic opportunism – it is clear to many in positions of authority that the Indian military remains fundamentally unprepared for such a challenge. But it can also be argued that a two-front force ratio (ratio of Pakistani and fraction of Chinese inventories to India’s) has evolved and varied considerably over time, as China continues to rapidly modernize as well as numerically increasing its military (through significant increases in defence spending) and Indian military preparedness flounders.

In this article, such an evolution and variation of a two-front force ratio is quantitatively examined using time-series data constructed from ten IISS Military Balance volumes, from 2008 to 2017. (A convention: given that the volumes publish data from the year before, the data reported below will correspond to the volume from the following year. For example, data quoted here for, say, 2010 would be from the 2011 volume, and so on.) The key finding of the article is that this force ratio – never in India's favour to begin with – is currently rapidly shifting in favour of the adversary, even after considering smaller fractions of the Chinese military involved in a two-front conflict.

Before presenting the results, a caveat is in order. The article works with only seven equipment variables and a simple bean count. Therefore, a much more granular study is necessary for a firm establishment of the results. Having said that, the results that do appear are disturbing and portend ill for a future collusive threat from Pakistan and China. It also points to an urgent need to make qualitative and quantitative improvements in the Indian military.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by g.sarkar »

shiv wrote:My suspicion is that Maldivians are hardly a "loyal and dharmic" bunch who will get all upset and chaddi-knotted and say "Cheenis are our friends and we only want them". Even the most incompetent bum with a fractional criminal mind - will understand that this is the time to look for a bribe from India. I suspect that India will give the bribe in the form of "Diplomatic negotiations and discussion of continuing cordial India-Maldives relations". Excuse my French, but in international relations everyone is a bhenchod. No nice people
Dr.Shiv,
If I remember correctly in 1971 war, FM Manekshaw requested permission of the PM to start assembling a group of what he called "Badmash" to go into East Pak and start causing mayhem . He requested funding for this venture. But Mrs. Gandhi shot down this proposal and instead decided to rely on regular military units and the Bahini as scouts showing the way. Our current PM can easily promise money and power to groups of Maldivians causing the present government to fall. The present Maldivian regime is weak and can be over thrown quickly by such covert action.
Gautam
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by pankajs »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1HH019
Australian media report China proposes military base in South Pacific
SYDNEY (Reuters) - China has approached Vanuatu about establishing a permanent military presence on the tiny Pacific island, Australia’s Fairfax Media reported on Tuesday, a plan that would likely stoke regional tensions.

The report, citing unnamed sources, said no formal proposal had yet been made, but preliminary talks have been held about locating a full military base on Vanuatu. It added that the prospect of a Chinese military outpost so close to Australia has been discussed at the highest levels in Canberra and Washington.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop on Tuesday said she had been assured by Vanuatu officials that there was no formal proposal from Beijing, but she stopped short of addressing whether there had been any unofficial talks.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by pankajs »

I hardly ever read ZeroHedge but once in a while it does post "facts" as understood by economist the world over including leading Chinese economist.
zerohedge @zerohedge

XI repeats all the things Beijing wishes to do but can't because of the "impossible trinity"
zerohedge @zerohedge

XI SAYS TO IMPLEMENT OPENING UP POLICIES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE in fact, as soon as impossible trinity becomes possible
China might feel it can best the "impossible trinity" but that only the future can tell. As of now the consensus is clear when dynamics is named starting with the word "impossible".

One had easily google and read up on "impossible trinity".
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

ArjunPandit wrote:^^shiv sir, given the slack that has percolated the babudom, such fear mongering might actually help. Otherwise the sleeping dogs would have been sleeping forever.
The problem is that we (lay-people) assume that babudom do not know. In fact babudom do know and if you read books by retired babu log they do say what was known and what was done.

So the fear mongering affects the common public - the babudom just dismiss it.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by shiv »

g.sarkar wrote: If I remember correctly in 1971 war, FM Manekshaw requested permission of the PM to start assembling a group of what he called "Badmash" to go into East Pak and start causing mayhem . He requested funding for this venture. But Mrs. Gandhi shot down this proposal and instead decided to rely on regular military units and the Bahini as scouts showing the way. Our current PM can easily promise money and power to groups of Maldivians causing the present government to fall. The present Maldivian regime is weak and can be over thrown quickly by such covert action.
Gautam
Have you read 'The Blood Telegram"?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Chandragupta »

ShauryaT wrote:The sobering arithmetic of a two-front war
Read the whole thing and see how superficial the analysis is without factoring terrain and objectives or suitability of assets for the terrain or its generational age or India's induction of MBRL's in lieu of artillery or India's own missile forces. Given the numbers presented, it is actually quite encouraging that the goals of the Indian military to be able to "defend" in the case of a two-front war even at this stage when the power differential between China and India is at its widest - ever - in history is quite credible from a defensive standpoint.
As relations with both China and Pakistan continue to deteriorate, Indian policy-makers now find themselves contemplating the unpleasant possibility of a 'two-front' war with both countries. Whether such a war would be overtly collusive or not between China and Pakistan – that is, whether they would pre-plan a joint attack on India or it would be a case of strategic opportunism – it is clear to many in positions of authority that the Indian military remains fundamentally unprepared for such a challenge. But it can also be argued that a two-front force ratio (ratio of Pakistani and fraction of Chinese inventories to India’s) has evolved and varied considerably over time, as China continues to rapidly modernize as well as numerically increasing its military (through significant increases in defence spending) and Indian military preparedness flounders.

In this article, such an evolution and variation of a two-front force ratio is quantitatively examined using time-series data constructed from ten IISS Military Balance volumes, from 2008 to 2017. (A convention: given that the volumes publish data from the year before, the data reported below will correspond to the volume from the following year. For example, data quoted here for, say, 2010 would be from the 2011 volume, and so on.) The key finding of the article is that this force ratio – never in India's favour to begin with – is currently rapidly shifting in favour of the adversary, even after considering smaller fractions of the Chinese military involved in a two-front conflict.

Before presenting the results, a caveat is in order. The article works with only seven equipment variables and a simple bean count. Therefore, a much more granular study is necessary for a firm establishment of the results. Having said that, the results that do appear are disturbing and portend ill for a future collusive threat from Pakistan and China. It also points to an urgent need to make qualitative and quantitative improvements in the Indian military.
I think this Government believes that chances of a 2 front war are close to zero and hence, we have not seen the kind of spurt in Mil capability building as we had expected. I also suspect that Modi (foolishly) believes that if shit hits the fans, he can count on his 'friends' in western capitals to stop any misadventures by China-Pak. This is Nehru syndrome and is 100% going to bite us in the ass if push ever came to shove.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Philip »

Another media report says that we're expecting a " hot summer" with China as there are 23 areas on the LAC which China has been trying to ingress.China has also grabbed Bhutanese territory in the Doklam area building bunkers, helipads,and other mil infrastructure to enable it to launch a powerful attack at an opportune moment.

Only strong mitary presence and display of Indian steel will deter China.Less talk and more action is required.At the moment we're not seeing enough action which must be taken on a war footing.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Hari Seldon »

PRC meanwhile is out toneuter and defang its taller than ocean ally TSP. Here's a fresh pic showing the cheenis making the Pak PM do a stool test.... the chair (err, stool) they gave him is so luxurious, the chap's impressive girth is half bulging out only...

Image

Lol.
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