Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2431
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby g.sarkar » 17 May 2020 14:24

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/is-t ... 200516.htm
Is threat to Xi behind India-China clashes?
By Colonel ANIL A ATHALE (retd), May 16, 2020
'The Ladakh clashes are mere warning signals of the storm to come on May 22 when the Chinese parliament meets,' observes Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).

As the world battles the coronavirus in a desperate struggle, there have been intriguing events happening on the India-China border. The incidents in Sikkim and the Pengong Tsu area of Ladakh could not have come at a worse time as far as China is concerned. Already in the dock over the handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, why China would open another front is the logical question. As someone who began his military career in Ladakh 52 years ago and is familiar with the geography and military situation in Ladakh, one thing is for sure -- these are no local incidents. The incident in Sikkim could well be classed as 'local', but the standoff in the Pengong Tsu (lake) area is anything but local. The area is not remote and is close to the higher headquarters of both the Indian and Chinese armies. In a tightly controlled Chinese army, these situations must have been orchestrated at the highest level of army command. The situation in Ladakh has the potential to escalate as India now matches China in that area, gun for gun and tank for tank! One possible explanation for the recent event could be that the Chinese are trying to help Pakistan.
With the recent setbacks to Pakistan-backed Kashmiri terrorists and the ever present possibility of Indian retaliation against Pakistan, China may well be trying to heat up the border to help Pakistan.
But given the fact that events in Ladakh are too remote from the Kashmir valley and India has adequate force to deal with both issues, this seems unlikely. Possibly the border incidents have a link not to external, but internal issues in China. Let me explain. It is no secret that Xi Jinping -- China's supreme leader; general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, president of the People's Republic of China and chairman of China's military commission -- has been cultivating good relations with India for several years as a hedge against US and Western hostility. Now that the West is up in arms against China, all the more reason for Xi to not antagonise India. One may recall that just when Xi visited India in September 2014 to forge new ties with India, there were incidents in Ladakh. Some lobbies in China appeared to work against the rapprochement with India.
There were unconfirmed reports later that the local Chinese military commander was subsequently sacked. The current tensions in Ladakh come at an awkward time for Xi as he faces the Chinese parliament on May 22. The incident may well have been engineered by the anti-Xi faction in the Chinese Communist Party.
God and the Chinese Communist Party work in mysterious ways. There is enough historical precedent to show that the rest of the world was totally unaware of inner-party struggles in the 1950s and 1960s. Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution that saw the downgrading of Premier Zhou Enlai in the 1960s, the sudden ouster and death of Lin Biao (the People's Liberation Army commander and Mao's heir apparent) in September 1971, the rise of Deng Xiaoping and the ouster of Mao's widow Jiang Qing and the 'Gang of Four', all came without much warning. The recent clashes in Ladakh between Indian and Chinese troops may well be a signal of loosening control by Xi Iinping as he battles for survival.
.....
Gautam

sooraj
BRFite
Posts: 1396
Joined: 06 May 2011 15:45

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sooraj » 18 May 2020 19:56

TSMC Accepts US Kill Order & Suspends Future Huwaei Contracts

TSMC Adheres To U.S. Export Controls By Suspending Future Orders From Huawei Technologies

The new rule put in place by the Commerce Department states that any orders for any Huawei products that were placed with TSMC before May 15th, and that are due to ship by September 14 (120 days) will not come under the ambit of the new rule. However, any other orders will require increased American scrutiny, in a move that the Commerce department believes will grant it better insight and visibility into chip shipments made to Huawei.

The Chinese company designs its processors through its semiconductor arm HiSilicon, with orders placed for these designs to TSMC. The relationship between the two companies is not new, with TSMC using its 16nm FinFET+ node to fabricate chips for Huawei as early as 2016.

Additionally, TSMC's bleeding-edge 7nm (DUV) and 7nm+ (EUV) nodes that are the demand of the tech world are also utilized by Huawei for the Kirin 980, Kirin 990 4G, Kirin 985 4G and Kirin 990 5G. Apart from TSMC, only Korean tech giant Samsung Corporation's semiconductor arm Samsung LSI has the required prowess to meet the technical complexity of these chips, but given the history between Huawei and TSMC, the former finds it easier to work with TSMC – particularly due to the close proximity between China and Taiwan.


Following a Stricter American Stance, is Huawei Increasing the Scope of its Orders to TSMC Before the 120-day U.S. Delivery timeline Expires?

Those familiar with the situation told the Review that:

"TSMC has stopped taking new orders from Huawei after the new rule change was announced to fully comply with the latest export control regulation. But those already in production and those orders which TSMC took before the new ban are not impacted and could continue to proceed if those chips could be shipped before mid-September."

Interestingly, as China's semiconductor dependence on American-origin equipment was pushed to the limelight last week and today, another report from China's Economic Daily News (cited by ITHome) claimed that Huawei has urgently placed a new order for $700 million worth of 5nm and 7nm products with TSMC. This order covers Kirin 1080 SoC based on the 5nm node, with the 7nm manufacturing process covering 5G baseband modems.

Given that TSMC has been reported to have commenced manufacturing these chips in April, it appears unlikely that they cover the ambit of the rule change. Yet, given the limited information on this matter for the time being, nothing can be said with certainty. The EDN report goes on to mention that following the $700 million order, TSMC has reached full capacity for manufacturing these products. The situation is further complicated when we consider a report that surfaced earlier this week suggesting that Huawei's 5nm process will enter mass production in the second half of this calendar year.


TSMC has $5.9 Billion in revenue associated with Huawei, can the demand surplus fill the vacuum?

Naturally, were TSMC and Huawei to sever ties completely, the revenue impact for the Taiwanese fab could be materially significant, especially in the odd case that it is unable to make up for loss capacity through replacement orders. Keep in mind that all industry reports right now indicate that TSMC is operating in a large demand surplus with orders backlogged for its advanced nodes. It is likely that the company will be able to substitute the majority of its revenue shortfall - if not all.

Analyst Nicolas Baratte estimates that the lion's share of TSMC's dependence on Huawei comes from the latter's smartphone products, which right now, account for roughly 10% of the fab's total revenue. These are followed by Huawei's server products primarily based on British chip house ARM's designs with a 2% share and specialty technologies covering image sensors accounting for another 2%.

Overall, and after factoring in replacement, TSMC could stand to lose 5%-6% of its revenues permanently in case it severs ties with Huawei. Potential replacements for Huawei include Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM 75.77 -5.13%)for smartphones and AMD Corporation (NASDAQ:AMD 54.2 -0.57%), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA 339.63 5.73%) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC 58.28 -1.35%) for HPC (high power computing) applications.


Research firm reveals that Chinese firms miles away from becoming fully independent from American-made semiconductor manufacturing equipment

When talking about dependence, Guangzhou based research firm GF Securities states in a research report that China is still heavily dependant on the U.S. for semiconductor fabrication. The details suggest that while the overall dependence of local Chinse firms on American products for chip manufacturing is 35%, this share increases to 50% when the focus is narrowed down to core process equipment. American companies' 35.5% share is slightly higher than Japanese companies' 32.8% market share, and the Chinese are currently focusing on developing mature first-line equipment amongst other areas.

Analyzing the American market share with a fine-toothed comb, GF's analysts report that U.S. companies have a 50% market share in equipment for ion implementation, etching, process control and thin film deposition. Cleaning and inspection equipment account for 27% and 13% shares, respectively. Chinese firms including Shengmei semiconductor, China Microelectronics Corporation and North Huachuang Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd are slowly making their way up the equipment share percentage food chain, with North Huachuang's oxidation, diffusion and heat treatment products garnering a 32.2% share.

Commenting on the U.S. move, Huawei's chairman Guo Ping put on a brave face in a conference held on Monday with analysts. The executive accepted that Huawei's business will be hurt due to the decision, that the company needs to comprehend the impact of the restrictions and that its previous challenges that were part of the same back-and-forth between American and Chinese governments have led it to develop a "thicker skin". Mr. Ping concluded his remarks on a positive note by stating that his company is confident about making its way through the crisis.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3295
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 18 May 2020 20:24

As it is constantly pointed out, it was the US support to Chinese industries like Huawei which allowed it to steal IP from European & US network companies openly.

If the US had put a stop earlier, Huawei would have sank much earlier.

It is the US, Taiwan, SK & japanese support, which allowed China to become so big.

I am pretty sure there will be a "chip laundering" setup put in place. One of the Chinese mobile company will increase TSMC order and pass on the chip to Huawei.

darshan
BRFite
Posts: 1513
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby darshan » 18 May 2020 21:14

We will know when US is serious when there are lot more arrests and lot more companies on the list. So far Huawei is like banning of a terrorist group that will change the name very fast to something else. US had spent lot of effort to contain countries like India and monitor what's shipping in and out from these countries. On other hand, there's practically no enforcement when it came to China. Now to go other way around requires institutional purge within the US itself which hasn't been witnessed yet. Wake me up when US Congress approvals are required like India did for many things.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4456
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 18 May 2020 22:57

nam wrote:As it is constantly pointed out, it was the US support to Chinese industries like Huawei which allowed it to steal IP from European & US network companies openly.

If the US had put a stop earlier, Huawei would have sank much earlier.

It is the US, Taiwan, SK & japanese support, which allowed China to become so big.

I am pretty sure there will be a "chip laundering" setup put in place. One of the Chinese mobile company will increase TSMC order and pass on the chip to Huawei.


If Huawei doesn't die then this exercise becomes very dangerous in the long term.

Previous chini chip design, etching and manufacturing projects fell flat because the chini companies themselves refused to buy into them. It was far easier to be into the commoditized market for chips and also the chinis thought their position in the supply chain (rare metals, testing and assembly, etc.) made the global market safe. That was ot unplanned. During the Reagan-Bush years, it was considered good that Cheen depended on the US as both a market and as a source for technology. To them it was far better to have your main rival depend on you than not.

Well, Trump and his people have changed that. They believe it is better to have Cheen be on its own. That is good if Cheen fails. But if not ...

Huawei and ZTE have no choice now. The rest of the Chinese tech conglomerates know that they will be next. From last year onward, they are placing orders with chini chip manufacturers like SMIC (who recently cashed out of the NYSE) that they never did before. Chini chip design houses, etching producers and chips manufacturer now have a captive market they never had before when the big tech companies can simply reach into the global marketplace.

Whether they'll succeed is another question but they finally have the country and an industry backing them. If they do succeed (and Cheen being Cheen, it'll be by hook or crook) then the whole equation changes.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3295
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 19 May 2020 01:31

It is given that it is too late now and they have enough money. You cannot bring a 15T economy to knees so easily. When a have nothing country like Iran is yet to fail, you are talking about the 2nd largest GDP in the world.

They may have trouble accessing American & European markets, but will sustain within their domestic market. Pretty sure they will throw the kitchen sink in tech development and try to out compete US tech.

The only hope is that we get something out of it. But then not much hope.

mappunni
BRFite
Posts: 213
Joined: 14 Jul 2017 19:07

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby mappunni » 19 May 2020 03:14

nam wrote:It is given that it is too late now and they have enough money. You cannot bring a 15T economy to knees so easily. When a have nothing country like Iran is yet to fail, you are talking about the 2nd largest GDP in the world.

They may have trouble accessing American & European markets, but will sustain within their domestic market. Pretty sure they will throw the kitchen sink in tech development and try to out compete US tech.

The only hope is that we get something out of it. But then not much hope.


Have you checked Amazon recently the amount of negative feedback on Chinese made products is going through the roof and Amazon keeps deleting them but yet people go back to ding it!!

Larry Walker
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 80
Joined: 26 Nov 2019 17:33

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Larry Walker » 19 May 2020 03:28

nam wrote:Just had a look at Lipulekh pass on the map. I can now understand why China is firing from Nepal's shoulder.

We have built a road towards Lipulekh and this is the point from where G219 is very close. To make it worse, G219 in this area is flanked by mountains, meaning no lateral access from Tibet.

The pass is very close to the road. very close. Shortcut to Mansarovar. We can break the communication b/w West and Eastern LAC...

The Chinese must be very worried.
I

That is correct - from Lipulekh IA can spring board towards Mansarovar and cut-off G219 thus effectively cutting off supplies to Aksai-Chin sector. I am also suspecting that Lipulekh being on eastern side of Shakargarh bulge is also necessary to deny lizard an opportunity to distract IA when Paki ARN try to riposte towards Pathankot.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4456
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 19 May 2020 13:44

nam wrote:It is given that it is too late now and they have enough money. You cannot bring a 15T economy to knees so easily. When a have nothing country like Iran is yet to fail, you are talking about the 2nd largest GDP in the world.

They may have trouble accessing American & European markets, but will sustain within their domestic market. Pretty sure they will throw the kitchen sink in tech development and try to out compete US tech.

The only hope is that we get something out of it. But then not much hope.


I think Trump knows that he can't bring the entire chini economy down but he is trying to cripple important parts of it by denying them US tech. It is just a fundamentally different way of exerting US power.

The old Nixon-Reagan-Bush I admins created "Chimerica" which consisted of a China dependent on US markets and technology.

Maybe that strategy worked too well. Because under Bush II and the Democrat regimes this started to crack a bit. Bush II punished LockMart for fixing a Chinese launch of its satellite. LockMart was on the cusp of dominating China's satellite market. An embargo ensued and now the US has no share in the world's largest satellite market. The same thing happened when Obama embargoed the Cheen's HPC market that used to be totally dependent on Intel and NVidia.

Maybe the third time's the charm. But in Wall Street's view, it seems contrary to business strategy where market share is power. When you have 70% of the chini silicon market (the world's largest by far) and you are deliberately taking yourself out if it, it seems crazy. Every other time, Amreeka fights to break into and gain dominance in protected markets.

If Cheen fails in indigenizing its chips industry then this strategy is a master stroke. But if Cheen succeeds again (like it did with satellites and HPC) then it becomes a weakening of Amreeki power.

In the future, both chini and Amreeki companies will be handicapped by having no access to one of the two largest markets. But the chinis will have the bigger market.

The biggest winners will be the ones that can sell to both. The Germans, Japanese and Koreans will be there again in both places. That is how India can gain from this.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1133
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nandakumar » 19 May 2020 14:11

This is a genuine question and not a rhetorical one. If Chinese were that good at bringing indigenous technology on par with global norms, how come they haven't had much success in penetrating automobile market in the West the way Japanese or Korean cars have? Even in commercial vehicles, they tried making inroads into a cost conscious market such as India. They teamed up with Essars and started a company called Asian Motor Works. It hasn't been very successful.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4456
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 19 May 2020 16:18

nandakumar wrote:This is a genuine question and not a rhetorical one. If Chinese were that good at bringing indigenous technology on par with global norms, how come they haven't had much success in penetrating automobile market in the West the way Japanese or Korean cars have? Even in commercial vehicles, they tried making inroads into a cost conscious market such as India. They teamed up with Essars and started a company called Asian Motor Works. It hasn't been very successful.



Branding and market conditions have a lot to do with it. Cheen has no or poor branding. That said, Cheen has a massive internal market that actually buys a LOT of first rate German, American, Japanese and Korean cars. VW alone sells as many cars in China as the entire Indian passenger car market -- about 3m.

And in Cheen's 24m car market, Chinese companies have 50% of it in direct competition with everything from Tata (RangeRover/Jaguar) to BMW to Tesla.

Now, why haven't they done much in India? Well who is going to trust his life testing out a no-name chini brand even if it were good? Just the China brand itself scares people off.

I suspect, actually I know, from industry reports that chini indigenous tech (either stolen or homegrown) is good enough to give established brands a run for their money especially in the low and mid tiers if people had no idea where the car came from.

Research how Korea became a car exporter when its first exports were pilloried. Unlike Korea in the 1990s, the Chinese car companies had a huge home market to sell into. Also unlike Korea in the 1990s, they do not have a monopoly at home so they are fighting tooth and nail just to keep that 50% home share. There is no extra fat to spend on overcoming a poor brand name overseas which was what Korean companies like Hyundai did in the 1990s. Hyundai basically gave a lifetime warranty back then. Even today Hyundai and KIA provide 100,000 miles warranty as a throwback to those days.

If tomorrow Cheen removed GM (who sells more cars in Cheen than the US) and Ford from their internal market and the chini brands began carving out 70-80% of their home market and have extra cash to reverse their image overseas then I think we'd be in for a surprise.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1133
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nandakumar » 19 May 2020 17:07

chola
Your thesis is that a near total dominance in the home market is a prerequisite for penetrating overseas markets with massive marketing and other promotional activities. Can't quarrel with that proposition. We will see how it goes. Although if they actually place Apple and other iconic companies in the unreliable entities list as they are threatening now, I can't see how they will ever get to show Americans and Germans that their cars are as good as what they make.

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 1670
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby yensoy » 19 May 2020 17:16

Larry Walker wrote:
nam wrote:Just had a look at Lipulekh pass on the map. I can now understand why China is firing from Nepal's shoulder.

We have built a road towards Lipulekh and this is the point from where G219 is very close. To make it worse, G219 in this area is flanked by mountains, meaning no lateral access from Tibet.

The pass is very close to the road. very close. Shortcut to Mansarovar. We can break the communication b/w West and Eastern LAC...

The Chinese must be very worried.
I

That is correct - from Lipulekh IA can spring board towards Mansarovar and cut-off G219 thus effectively cutting off supplies to Aksai-Chin sector. I am also suspecting that Lipulekh being on eastern side of Shakargarh bulge is also necessary to deny lizard an opportunity to distract IA when Paki ARN try to riposte towards Pathankot.


Decades ago, the Kailash Manasarovar yatra used to go via Lipulekh pass. I recall a gentleman who went in the late 80s or early 90s told us about the roaring and dark river Kali and journey with Nepal on one side, and Lipulekh pass.

It was also probably because Sikkim wasn't recognized as part of India back then. The events around the absconding young monk made China eventually accept Sikkim as part of India around 2003. Since the Nathu la route was easier access, I believe the KM Yatra moved to this portal. Events around Doklam cast a shadow over KM Yatra in 2017, you may recall. Lengthening the route within China would also give the Chinese opportunity to charge more and do shakinaw on the yatrees with great roads and 4G mobile towers everywhere.

Now the route back to Lipulekh has obviously been made with Chinese consent. Not the road to Lipulekh per se, but the fact that yatrees will use this portal. So, nothing is secret here. Chinese being worried about G219 is, in my mind, not the case.

G219 was strategically important to China because it linked Tibet with the rest of China, at that point in time the best (or only?) motorable road from anywhere in China. Today there are multiple accesses into Tibet, from the north somewhat parallel to the rail line, from the east across to Sichuan and Yunnan besides G219.

Aksai Chin's lifeline does not go through Tibet. Aksai China is supplied from Kashgar/Sinkiang in the north. Of course G219 is a strategic road which will allow repositioning of troops between Tibet and Sinkiang but its importance is not what it used to be. Besides, nothing really prevents us from building roads right up to our border in undisputed areas and it should not be a cause of worry to the Chinese. Even were the Nepali claim around Lipulekh be sustained, the distance of our border from G219 would not materially change.

There is no doubt China is firing from Nepal's shoulders but the G219 is probably not the reason.

ChandraV
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 23
Joined: 27 Jun 2017 02:50

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ChandraV » 20 May 2020 20:03

Lipulekh (and Kalapani area) road has more benefit just for India as a whole, and especially the pilgrims and the pilgrim business circuit. The earlier routes all went far longer and through much of the territory of Nepal and of China/Tibet, benefiting economies along the way. The new route is 80% journey in India and the rest in Tibet via a direct road-- it is like touching your nose directly with your hands rather than coming at it from behind your head. Nepal probably has the most to lose economics-wise, which is probably the main reason they're mad.

Varoon Shekhar
BRFite
Posts: 1962
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 23:26

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 20 May 2020 22:03

Just watching India Today TV's feature on the border issue. It's detestable how officials in the MEA and Indian military are making pusillanimous comments on the border issue. "contested border" "both sides.." , "flare ups have been resolved through frantic diplomacy in the past" blah blah... I'm still looking for some strong and positive statements. Indians are too often( far too often) trying to sound soft or weak, and even seemingly reveling in it. That won't work with a thug and bully like China.

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 22 May 2020 12:36

Chinese Companies Could Be Delisted From U.S. Stock Exchanges: What It Means for Investors
The ripples are already being felt in the markets after landmark legislation was approved by the Senate.


https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... means.aspx

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 22 May 2020 12:38

UK PM Johnson orders for plans to end reliance on Chinese imports: The Times

Reuters May 21, 2020, 6:41 PM CDT

(Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has instructed civil servants to make plans to end UK's reliance on China for vital medical supplies and other strategic imports in light of the coronavirus outbreak, The Times newspaper reported on Friday https://bit.ly/2AIukv1.

The plans, which have been code named 'Project Defend', include identifying Britain's main economic vulnerabilities to potentially hostile foreign governments as part of a broader new approach to national security, the newspaper reported, adding that the efforts are being led by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab.

Two working groups have been set up as part of the project, according to the report, with one source telling The Times that the aim was to diversify supply lines to no longer depend on individual countries for non-food essentials.

Johnson told lawmakers he would take steps to protect Britain's technological base, with the government review also expected to include personal protective equipment and drugs, the report added.

The development comes as Beijing has been tackling mounting international criticism over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak, which began in China before spreading to the rest of the world.




(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 861
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Haresh » 22 May 2020 13:32

Modi govt’s subtle message to China — 2 BJP MPs ‘attend’ Taiwan president’s swearing-in

https://theprint.in/world/modi-govts-su ... in/426731/

Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 596
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Ashokk » 22 May 2020 15:05

There was very similar situation at the Sino-Soviet border in 1969. All this pushing and shoving has been tried before as we can see below. Unfortunately, only an armed conflict was able to bring some stability.

Image
PLA soldiers argue with soviet soldiers with Mao's red book in hand

Image
Soviet soldiers chase away PLA provocateurs using sticks backed up by a BTR

Image
Soviet border guards at the no.1 border post with "special weapons". The forked sticks were used for "contact-less" push back of chinese soldiers from soviet territory.

Image
Soviet soldiers push back chinese from soviet territory.

Image
Chinese soldiers try to provoke a fight by using rifle butts as clubs.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3887
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kit » 22 May 2020 17:44

Kati wrote:UK PM Johnson orders for plans to end reliance on Chinese imports: The Times

Reuters May 21, 2020, 6:41 PM CDT

(Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has instructed civil servants to make plans to end UK's reliance on China for vital medical supplies and other strategic imports in light of the coronavirus outbreak, The Times newspaper reported on Friday https://bit.ly/2AIukv1.

The plans, which have been code named 'Project Defend', include identifying Britain's main economic vulnerabilities to potentially hostile foreign governments as part of a broader new approach to national security, the newspaper reported, adding that the efforts are being led by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab.

Two working groups have been set up as part of the project, according to the report, with one source telling The Times that the aim was to diversify supply lines to no longer depend on individual countries for non-food essentials.

Johnson told lawmakers he would take steps to protect Britain's technological base, with the government review also expected to include personal protective equipment and drugs, the report added.

The development comes as Beijing has been tackling mounting international criticism over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak, which began in China before spreading to the rest of the world.




(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)


So what about Huawei s 5G implementation in UK ?!

ChandraV
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 23
Joined: 27 Jun 2017 02:50

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ChandraV » 22 May 2020 22:37

the "nationalist" BJP/Modi keeping military budgets low for years is like a welcome sign on India's back that tells China, "Come and kick me, please!"

When the Chinese can come on our own roads and block our troops from patrolling on our own side, and not a shot is fired, that's called salami-slicing and giving away additional kilometers of local land and water access.

This is alarming, to say the least.

https://www.firstpost.com/india/as-xi-j ... 95311.html

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 24 May 2020 10:07

US slaps sanctions on 33 Chinese companies and institutions, dialling up the tension amid the lowest point in US-China relations

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... stitutions

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 24 May 2020 10:57

UK government reverses course on Huawei's involvement in 5G networks
Jonathan Shieber
TechCrunchMay 23, 2020, 3:42 PM CDT
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 08: An attendee walk by the Huawei booth at CES 2019 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on January 8, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. CES, the world's largest annual consumer technology trade show, runs through January 11 and features about 4,500 exhibitors showing off their latest products and services to more than 180,000 attendees. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 08: An attendee walk by the Huawei booth at CES 2019 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on January 8, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. CES, the world's largest annual consumer technology trade show, runs through January 11 and features about 4,500 exhibitors showing off their latest products and services to more than 180,000 attendees. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
More
Conservative members of the United Kingdom's government have pushed Prime Minister Boris Johnson to draw up plans to remove telecom equipment made by the Chinese manufacturer Huawei from the nation's 5G networks by 2023, according to multiple reports.

The decision by Johnson, who wanted Huawei's market share in the nation's telecommunications infrastructure capped at 35 percent, brings the UK back into alignment with the position Australia and the United States have taken on Huawei's involvement in national communications networks, according to both The Guardian and The Telegraph.

The debate over Huawei's role in international networking stems from the company's close ties to the Chinese government and the attendant fears that relying on Huawei telecom equipment could expose the allied nations to potential cybersecurity threats and weaken national security.

How Huawei is dividing Western nations



Originally, the UK had intended to allow Huawei to maintain a foothold in the nation's telecom infrastructure in a plan that had received the approval of Britain's intelligence agencies in January.

“This is very good news and I hope and believe it will be the start of a complete and thorough review of our dangerous dependency on China,” conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith told The Guardian when informed of the Prime Minister's reversal.

As TechCrunch had previously reported, the Australian government and the U.S. both have significant concerns about Huawei's ability to act independently of the interests of the Chinese national government.

"The fundamental issue is one of trust between nations in cyberspace,” wrote Simeon Gilding, until recently the head of the Australian Signals Directorate’s signals intelligence and offensive cyber missions. "It’s simply not reasonable to expect that Huawei would refuse a direction from the Chinese Communist Party."

Given the current tensions between the U.S. and China, allies like the UK and Australia would be better served not exposing themselves to any risks from having the foreign telecommunications company's technology in their networks, some security policy analysts have warned.

"It’s not hard to imagine a time when the U.S. and China end up in some sort of conflict,” Tom Uren of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) told TechCrunch. “If there was a shooting war, it is almost inevitable that the U.S. would ask Australia for assistance and then we’d be in this uncomfortable situation if we had Huawei in our networks that our critical telecommunications networks would literally be run by an adversary we were at war with."

U.S. officials are bound to be delighted with the decision. They've been putting pressure on European countries for months to limit Huawei's presence in their telecom networks.

"If countries choose to go the Huawei route it could well jeopardize all the information sharing and intelligence sharing we have been talking about, and that could undermine the alliance, or at least our relationship with that country," U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to a report in The New York Times.

In recent months the U.S. government has stepped up its assault against the technology giant on multiple fronts. Earlier in May, the U.S. issued new restrictions on the use of American software and hardware in certain strategic semiconductor processes. The rules would affect all foundries using U.S. technologies, including those located abroad, some of which are Huawei’s key suppliers.

Huawei admits uncertainty following new US chip curbs



At a conference earlier this week, Huawei’s rotating chairman Guo Ping admitted that while the firm is able to design some semiconductor parts such as integrated circuits (IC), it remains “incapable of doing a lot of other things.”

“Survival is the keyword for us at present,” he said.

Huawei has challenged the ban, saying that it would damage the international technology ecosystem that has developed to manufacture the hardware that powers the entire industry.

“In the long run, [the U.S. ban] will damage the trust and collaboration within the global semiconductor industry which many industries depend on, increasing conflict and loss within these industries.”

Neela
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3637
Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Neela » 24 May 2020 11:28

Work at a EU based Power Management IC company.

- All wafers currents running at foundries can be sol to Huawei
- No new wafer starts from 22/May for Huawei
- All products for Huawei stopped.
- All products which have dual use - general market and Huawei and with Huawei inputs stopped.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4688
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby hanumadu » 24 May 2020 13:31

Isn't ZTE into the same things that Huawei does? Probably all the knowledge, production and customers have already been transferred to ZTE or some other chinese company.

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200225/5g/zte-already-secured-46-5g-commercial-contracts-globally

ZTE has racked up 46 5G commercial contracts globally


syam
BRFite
Posts: 732
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby syam » 24 May 2020 18:04


Very informative video. don't know who is lying. but very informative. eerily similar to what happens in our country. either same guy using these tactics at different places or this became standard warfare for everyone now.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3887
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kit » 24 May 2020 18:21

I think the Chinese are idiots period, why pick up a border row with India , when they have fights in multiple fronts , Hong Kong , South China sea, US/UK/Aus mil confrontation .. doesnt add up.. looks like the top rung is in panic mode and not thinking straight , it looks like "grab whatever you can when you can?" .. are they really responsible for a genetically engineered virus, experiment gone wrong ?!! Doesnt add up

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4456
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 24 May 2020 18:36

^^^ Not our place to question their idiocy or not. We should only care if it is advantageous for us to act.

If the West is on their arses then we should seriously consider fixing the northern border permanently. I don't mean liberating Tibet which can create an existential situation for the PRC and create conditions for total warfare.

I mean a rapid strike across our border with Cheen, taking all defensible positions and retreiving Aksai Chin. And then declaring an unilateral ceasefire on defensible positions in on our terms. Just like what they did in 1962. If handled correctly, I think they'll accept the conditions and concentrate on HK or Taiwan or a firefight with the US.

They won't if we try to detach Tibet. But if the US is doing some major damage to Cheen like freeing Hong Kong or Taiwan with US troops then the whole of Tibet can come into play.

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby abhik » 24 May 2020 19:41

kit wrote:I think the Chinese are idiots period, why pick up a border row with India , when they have fights in multiple fronts , Hong Kong , South China sea, US/UK/Aus mil confrontation .. doesnt add up.. looks like the top rung is in panic mode and not thinking straight , it looks like "grab whatever you can when you can?" .. are they really responsible for a genetically engineered virus, experiment gone wrong ?!! Doesnt add up

They are idiots only if it materially does not workout for them, till then they are operating under Sun Tzu fart of war maxims (which is working out fine for them IMO).

Rishi_Tri
BRFite
Posts: 434
Joined: 13 Feb 2017 14:49

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Rishi_Tri » 24 May 2020 19:54

nam wrote:It is given that it is too late now and they have enough money. You cannot bring a 15T economy to knees so easily. When a have nothing country like Iran is yet to fail, you are talking about the 2nd largest GDP in the world.

They may have trouble accessing American & European markets, but will sustain within their domestic market. Pretty sure they will throw the kitchen sink in tech development and try to out compete US tech.

The only hope is that we get something out of it. But then not much hope.


Soviet Union was the second largest economy in the World and equivalent to US in military might when it broke up. China Virus is 100 times more damaging to China than Afghan war or other wars ever were to Soviet Union.

I can see China breaking up or Tibet becoming free.

Global Misery caused by China Virus has made hundreds of nations and their peoples seethe. Its only a matter of time now.

Rsatchi
BRFite
Posts: 687
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Rsatchi » 24 May 2020 20:28

Rishi_Tri wrote:
nam wrote:It is given that it is too late now and they have enough money. You cannot bring a 15T economy to knees so easily. When a have nothing country like Iran is yet to fail, you are talking about the 2nd largest GDP in the world.

They may have trouble accessing American & European markets, but will sustain within their domestic market. Pretty sure they will throw the kitchen sink in tech development and try to out compete US tech.

The only hope is that we get something out of it. But then not much hope.


Soviet Union was the second largest economy in the World and equivalent to US in military might when it broke up. China Virus is 100 times more damaging to China than Afghan war or other wars ever were to Soviet Union.

I can see China breaking up or Tibet becoming free.

Global Misery caused by China Virus has made hundreds of nations and their peoples seethe. Its only a matter of time now.

Even though both Communist regimes : Each dismembered with a different tactic??
USSR could not in the end keep up with printing money and arms race with USA and broke up.
China: a different tactic in play I think. Initially permitted to steal tech to start the industrial revolution and production hub but the rug will be pulled. With no markets to sell and a populace brought up on cash in pocket to spend it will be difficult for China to keep the populace happy except resorting to serious authoritarian moves which may/will backfire big time!!
I seriously think that the present Dalai Lama will be installed as the head of free Tibet before his successor is picked.
The by product of this eventual chini breakup would be : 1.Reunification of Korea 2.Balkanization of Napak.

kancha
BRFite
Posts: 922
Joined: 20 Apr 2005 19:13

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kancha » 24 May 2020 21:18

I haven't really been following this thread for quite some time now. But I thought to share three blogs I wrote on this subject over the past one month or so. Here they are. Views and counterviews are welcome.

Blog 1 - The Post COVID19 World
Twitter Link

Even though the world is busy fighting the immediate fight – against the virus itself, let me offer a statement: THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT, HAS CHANGED.
Yes, plz read the above statement once again and ponder over it for a few moments.
Yes, you read it right. The world has already changed. What form this changed world takes, remains to be seen and will be apparent soon, maybe even within the next 6 to 8 months, once the immediate danger of the virus itself has passed
.
.
However, with China more or less shut down in months of Jan-March 2020, the world realized one thing – putting all your eggs in a single (manufacturing) basket had a lot of unforeseen repercussions in terms of a virtual stoppage in a lot of critical supply chains. And then, thanks to their early exposure (or a pre-prepared vaccine as some speculate), China was amongst the first few of the majorly affected countries that brought the situation somewhat under control and with much fanfare, restarted her factories.
There was hope, until the Chinese revealed their ultimate weapon – the Middle Kingdom Syndrome.
They went ballistic with their ‘anger’ at the much justifiable backlash at their own mishandling of the issue in the very initial days.
.
.
But the hubristic Middle Kingdom was shocked to its core when it realized that not only were the ‘barbarians’ NOT kowtowing to its ruler, but instead they were accusing the Middle Kingdom itself for being .. well .. the Middle Kingdom!
There were reports that countries were not buying into the Middle Kingdom’s demands of giving their strategic 5G networks to Huawei. Britain was mulling officially barring Huawei. France had rejected the aid offer linked with Huawei.
The Middle Kingdom was suddenly in uncharted territory – it was not getting what it was demanding! They unleashed their army of social media warriors under their own Propaganda-in-Chief, Lijian Zhao, who himself had learnt the art of ‘Fifth Generation Warfare’ while in Pakistan not so long ago!
.
.
Bottomline: China has well and truly gone about accumulating a lot of bad karma from everyone, right from governments of the world to the average citizens on the streets.
This is bound to come back to bite them, once the dust settles.
They know it too.
And are rattled.
With good reason.
Because they can already see it starting to happen. There is ever growing talk of moving manufacturing out of China. But this talk this time is different from similar talks a few months earlier. Where earlier, in the early days of the pandemic, people were only concerned with creating redundancies in case of a similar disruption in future, this time they are pursuing it with far more vigour due to pure disgust with the way China has mishandled the entire thing
.
.
On the strategic front, once the world recovers, it will make good efforts to recover the ground it has had to cede to the Middle Kingdom. It may not be a far fetched theory if one says this time round there might actually be a shooting war, even if localized, in the South China Sea, esp once the US Navy moves back in. Heck, things are already being put into motion even as I type this
.
.
The biggest factor in this, IMO, is a China that is not only majorly weakened economically / geopolitically, but also facing AWAY from India, as it grapples with the US and rest of the Western world.
With Chinese economy contracting and thereafter growing slower than what has been the norm, it WILL mellow them down across the Himalayan borders, atleast in the short term
.
.
What I am getting at is that once the immediate danger is past, India will see a lot of (relatively) weakened states in near and far neighbourhood – right from China to Saudi Arabia. It is going to be a tricky tightrope that we will need to walk in order to maximize gains and minimize losses.
Chanakya’s Raj Mandal Theory comes to mind. Do google it in case not aware.
THIS is the time to put it to good use.
THIS is the time, it WILL manifest itself even if we don’t make many efforts to that end.
The future I foresee is one of great turbulence, lasting for atleast half a decade. This turbulence may not always translate into a protracted shooting war, but it most definitely will see localized military engagements.

kancha
BRFite
Posts: 922
Joined: 20 Apr 2005 19:13

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kancha » 24 May 2020 21:19

Blog 2 - A 'Conspiracy Theory'
Twitter Link
.
.
his re-election bid goes.
Let me just say that such a statement means that he is committed to make China lose in order to win his upcoming re-election bid in about six months.
Is this a ‘spur of the moment’ tweet? I’d say not. Reason – The politician in him knows that there is widespread anger & disgust against China, thanks to the fiasco that their mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent attempts at ‘managing’ the public perception that actually backfired, thanks to their high-handed attempts.
.
.
Did the US just call for junking the ‘One China Policy’, adherence to which is COMPULSORY if you want the Chinese to ‘oblige’ you by doing business with you?
Well, looks like the US Mission in UN just took the wind out of the sails of the ‘One China Policy’!
.
.
Remember, America just announced a stimulus package of TWO TRILLION dollars to jump-start its economy. The question is, where does this money come from?
Of course, they can simply print away in their dollar printing presses, no?
OR ..
They can seek reparations from China?
Just like a few other countries are already doing, no?
In fact, they are already in the process of doing so, by the way of lawsuits already filed in US courts or in the process of being filed!
Do you still think it is mere signalling and hot air?
Think again.
If it were merely so, why would China be spooked like hell?
Why would Shri Hu Xijin, the de-facto social media mouthpiece of the CCP make this ‘not so veiled’ counter-threat?
What does he know that we don’t?
.
.
Bottomline – The China dream is over. Their dreams of playing the big brother to the rest of the world will not fructify. They still have NO idea about how much bad press they have accumulated for themselves in eyes of practically each and every common citizen of the free world.
The hubristic and autocratic CCP have failed spectacularly in failing to recognize that people outside of their control won’t simply roll over and believe whatever propaganda they dish out.
.
.
Now add:
USS Nimitz transiting thru the Taiwan Strait – Who knows!
A shooting clash in the SCS – QUITE likely, I’d say
Removal of Xi Jinping by 2022 – Very likely
US recognition of Taiwan – ??

kancha
BRFite
Posts: 922
Joined: 20 Apr 2005 19:13

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kancha » 24 May 2020 21:20

Blog 3 - India-Taiwan Relationship: Time for a Reset?

Twitter Link

.
.
Knowing the Chinese, they must have prepared a roadmap for next 50 years as to how to go about their ‘peaceful’ rise & who all to ‘teach a lesson’ on the way as they do so. But this #ChineseVirus pandemic and their typical handling of the entire mess has put a MASSIVE spoke in the wheels of history that the Chinese must have planned for themselves.
EACH and EVERY person in each and every country, more or less, is seething with anger at them.
Even as Trump said that the US might even de-couple from China in ALL respects across the board, others too are doing much the same, or atleast a bit of the same.
Bottomline is that the world is changing faster and faster, geopolitically speaking.
.
.
The Paranoid Republic of China is NO ONE’S friend. They will act nice if you kowtow. Else they WILL do all in their powers to undermine you.
Period.
As far as India goes, they have been shielding the terrorist Masood Azhar at every international forum. They have been dumping cheap goods in our markets, undermining our own manufacturing industry.
Heck, they provided the NUCLEAR BOMB to Pakistan!
.
.
Recent transgressions on the LAC do point to an arm-twisting kind of a tactic in order to warn India to stay away from the US-China spat. Such transgressions have happened earlier too, most prominently when Emperor Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping visited Gujarat some years ago.
So, to that end, it could still be dismissed as mere posturing.
But then, via their commie proxies in Nepal, they opened up another front – a non-existent border dispute at Lipulekh Pass.
Do you still think this is mere posturing?
Well, I don’t.
To me, it seems that the Chinese have already fired a shot across our bow.
.
.
Non alignment in this time and age might not be an option.
Heck, it might not even be advisable since we might have more to lose than gain if we stand aside!
Just as the Lord knew that Mahabharat was inevitable, despite he himself taking the Pandavas’ offer of peace in lieu of five villages to the Kauravas, so is this new and upcoming New World Order.
To stand aloof is NOT going to be an option this time round.
Especially when India stands to gain perhaps the maximum out of a PRC cut down to size. I wrote a BLOG on what I foresee coming in the coming weeks and months, less than two weeks ago.
.
.
Why do I get the feeling that a reset of relationship with Taiwan will form an inescapable part of this upcoming showdown?
Not just by the US, but by India as well?
If not full diplomatic recognition, then maybe a vote in their favour over China?
Food for thought, no?
.
.
As I wind up this blog post, all I will say that time has come to bite the bullet, either which way. It is nothing short of a ‘Dharm Yudhh’ that faces us and the rest of the world.
Yes, the ‘Manthan’ that I talked about above WILL throw up poison as well, before the nectar.
But it will happen regardless of we being part of the Manthan or not.
We should be prepared to deal with the poison, in order to get to the nectar eventually.
The more people there are to share the poison, the better it will be, no?
Even if it is in the form of a vote in favour of Taiwan, if not an outright diplomatic recognition, all I’ll say is Bring It On!

Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1119
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Lisa » 24 May 2020 23:29

China Is Its Own Worst Enemy

BRAHMA CHELLANEY

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ey-2020-05

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 25 May 2020 11:04

Chinese factory managers smashing machines, and setting factory on fire .....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMzh7wgMVLY


Exiled Chinese Billionaire's Accusations of China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1361
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 25 May 2020 12:14

Sorry if these videos have been posted before....
In sequence with the above videos, a must see this. No matter how much Bannon has been demonized by the "free western media", he sounds very very logical.
Steve Bannon's Warning On China Trade War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH5QzuzD01A

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5786
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby vishvak » 25 May 2020 13:32

From another thread
..I'm beginning to think that bad karma only happens to those who believe in it. Chinis are athiests.

More like pandemic has taken tenacity of resistance to China's global plans to lower levels. Not that many were doing great by pretty much being slow to react while Chinese ran with dual tech and nuke proliferation.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1133
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nandakumar » 25 May 2020 13:42

kancha wrote:Blog 3 - India-Taiwan Relationship: Time for a Reset?

Twitter Link

.
.
Knowing the Chinese, they must have prepared a roadmap for next 50 years as to how to go about their ‘peaceful’ rise & who all to ‘teach a lesson’ on the way as they do so. But this #ChineseVirus pandemic and their typical handling of the entire mess has put a MASSIVE spoke in the wheels of history that the Chinese must have planned for themselves.
EACH and EVERY person in each and every country, more or less, is seething with anger at them.
Even as Trump said that the US might even de-couple from China in ALL respects across the board, others too are doing much the same, or atleast a bit of the same.
Bottomline is that the world is changing faster and faster, geopolitically speaking.
.
.
The Paranoid Republic of China is NO ONE’S friend. They will act nice if you kowtow. Else they WILL do all in their powers to undermine you.
Period.
As far as India goes, they have been shielding the terrorist Masood Azhar at every international forum. They have been dumping cheap goods in our markets, undermining our own manufacturing industry.
Heck, they provided the NUCLEAR BOMB to Pakistan!
.
.
Recent transgressions on the LAC do point to an arm-twisting kind of a tactic in order to warn India to stay away from the US-China spat. Such transgressions have happened earlier too, most prominently when Emperor Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping visited Gujarat some years ago.
So, to that end, it could still be dismissed as mere posturing.
But then, via their commie proxies in Nepal, they opened up another front – a non-existent border dispute at Lipulekh Pass.
Do you still think this is mere posturing?
Well, I don’t.
To me, it seems that the Chinese have already fired a shot across our bow.
.
.
Non alignment in this time and age might not be an option.
Heck, it might not even be advisable since we might have more to lose than gain if we stand aside!
Just as the Lord knew that Mahabharat was inevitable, despite he himself taking the Pandavas’ offer of peace in lieu of five villages to the Kauravas, so is this new and upcoming New World Order.
To stand aloof is NOT going to be an option this time round.
Especially when India stands to gain perhaps the maximum out of a PRC cut down to size. I wrote a BLOG on what I foresee coming in the coming weeks and months, less than two weeks ago.
.
.
Why do I get the feeling that a reset of relationship with Taiwan will form an inescapable part of this upcoming showdown?
Not just by the US, but by India as well?
If not full diplomatic recognition, then maybe a vote in their favour over China?
Food for thought, no?
.
.
As I wind up this blog post, all I will say that time has come to bite the bullet, either which way. It is nothing short of a ‘Dharm Yudhh’ that faces us and the rest of the world.
Yes, the ‘Manthan’ that I talked about above WILL throw up poison as well, before the nectar.
But it will happen regardless of we being part of the Manthan or not.
We should be prepared to deal with the poison, in order to get to the nectar eventually.
The more people there are to share the poison, the better it will be, no?
Even if it is in the form of a vote in favour of Taiwan, if not an outright diplomatic recognition, all I’ll say is Bring It On!

I read all the three parts. Congratulations on a painstaking effort. May more keep coming for the benefit of members of this forum. Having said that, I get the feeling that your assessment of the future of the current ruling dispensation in China is overly pessimistic. They aren't going to be overthrown anytime soon. I base it on nothing more than past history. China's past experiments (Great Leap Firward, Cultural Revolution) in nation building had been nothing short of a disaster. Yet it didn't disturb the ruling structure in the least. One can't attribute it entirely to the charisma of Mao. It was quite simply that overwhelming force of State power was employed to subjugate a terrified population. Why would it be different this time?


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: James and 33 guests