chola wrote:Wow! Closing a consulate on such short notice is pretty big.
Fireworks in the SCS soon? My warmongering self can't wait. lol
It is being rumored that they were providing infra/financial/other support for the riots. (blm/antifa)
chola wrote:Wow! Closing a consulate on such short notice is pretty big.
Fireworks in the SCS soon? My warmongering self can't wait. lol
Philip wrote:Chinese RMCQ cranes for the Chahbahar port haven't arrived 3 years after the GOI ordered them,hampering operations at the port,further ruining our relations with Iran.Why has the GOI repeatedly ordered PRC goods well-knowing it is India's foremost enemy even after Doklam? The order for these cranes was placed at the "height of the Doklam crisis !" Are there vested interests in babudom benfitting from an appeasement of the PRC? We are in shit st. as there are no alternative crane makers willing to supply in the face of US sanctions agsinst Iran.This is forcing India to keep the order alive..
Gyan wrote:China is infamous for bidding low & bribing very very big. That's why its influence in the world has increased exponentially.
darshan wrote:Bribes and chinese dolls to trap. Many businesses moving to China in early days were stung by these dolls to put them in can't tell or disclose mode. What happened in China stayed in China.
China's Guang-Xi region's dam has collapsed. It was built in 1965 and could hold more than 195 thousand cubic meters of water which is good enough to fill 78 Olympic size swimming pools.
However, the dam has now collapsed because it could not handle the floodwaters even as voices from the ground confirmed the impending crisis. When the dam collapsed, the local media didn’t report it. More dams and structures in China may collapse.
China Global Television Network (CGTN) issued a nearly six-minute video entitled “Can COVID-19 beat populism?” in which the Chinese Communist Party-run network leverages the coronavirus as “another straw on the camel’s back to expose [Trump’s] hollow politics.”
In addition to attacking President Trump, the video also went after China-skeptic political leaders such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Britain’s Boris Johnson.
Suraj wrote:
The Chinese did something incredibly stupid by picking a fight with the second largest source of trade surplus they have from a single country. There's nothing they can do to retaliate. They can make the border situation worse, and thereby accelerate their own financial costs. They can't ban Indian imports effectively. For one we don't export much to them, and for another, it's mostly intermediate goods like ore that we would want to use ourselves to manufacture things we should be making ourselves instead of import from them. That is the game theory situation here. They can hurt us, at the cost of hurting themselves even more. They can avoid or minimize their economic cost by offering more. Thus we lose, they lose more , or they mitigate losses, we win, are the two possible results. There's no economic win for them, because they are already past 'peak surplus' as far as India is concerned.
sajo wrote:We Indians are fine with Boycott and Sacrifice , as long as it is done by someone else. People have incredibly fickle memories!
nishant.gupta wrote:sajo wrote:We Indians are fine with Boycott and Sacrifice , as long as it is done by someone else. People have incredibly fickle memories!
Nitpick maybe but Hector video is an ad. If that doesn't get that many views...what will!? Basically what I mean is that MG has paid youtube to show the ad and the views will be visible to you and me.
The other videos are of popular channels with crores of subscribers. Again, you will have lakhs of views for anything including an 8 hour video of them snoring.
Shanmukh wrote:I have a newbie question - what is it that China hopes to gain by taking over Chabahar when it already has Gwadar? I mean-apart from the negatives of keeping the Indians out? Is there a commercial angle to the Chinese trying to take over Chabahar? Or is it a back-up in case the Gwadar thing comes to a dead halt with India playing spoilsport in Baluchistan or even Gilgit-Baltistan?
chetak wrote:This plane is equipped with a cardiogram monitor, respirator and other devices.![]()
I am sure that the next plane to arrive will be eqipped with even more advanced medical items like gauze and bandages.
Frightened by Galwan wounds China deploys ‘flying hospital’ in Tibet
Michael Pillsbury @mikepillsbury
BlackRock applies to set up China mutual fund business $14 Trillion asset management (third largest in the world) Goldman Sachs already approved https://ft.com/content/fec655ee-1003-40 ... 74615ad832
via @financialtimes
Suraj wrote:chola: "What if walking away from a $50 billion surplus isn't really a stupid action ?" is not an argument with much merit. And no, that they have growth and a large market does not explain anything. That data just means that they have growth.
chola wrote:Surely the question must be posed, Saar! When people do stupid things is it because they are truly stupid or something Chankian is happening. I would expect the former if it were pakis but with chinis -- well, how do you end up the world's second largest power by being stupid?
Suraj wrote:Depending on the public to implement a boycott of Chinese goods is NOT good state policy. This is the job of the government. The public cannot and should not be compelled to make foreign policy decisions. That is what we elect a government to accomplish. Indian foreign policy and trade policy have generally been weak at furthering Indian interests, both in isolation, and in the context of working together (which they arguably seldom do). Please don't waste time bemoaning the public's failure to act.
The government needs to continue its so far impressive efforts since Galwan to hurt Chinese economic interests in India. The smart approach is to do this quietly. There are MANY things that can be done (many of which have already been done):
* Quietly drop all Chinese bidders citing 'irregularities in bids', or anything that's a legally above board way of saying no
* Publicly state disbarment of Chinese companies, as a punitive government policy
* Block Chinese goods at ports, fail to offer customs clearance. Enhanced standards compliance testing with high profile media example of failure (remember the US customs burning dupattas and claiming fire hazard, and then banning Indian textile imports in the late 1990s ?)
* Ban all Chinese data sucking apps
* Focused targeting of Chinese imports by highest value items, e.g. finished manufactured goods, electronic items, fertilizers, chemicals and pharma items, and more. Replace the high value low hanging fruit quickly, then the next biggest items, progressively whittling down the surplus entirely.
* High profile crash test failures of Chinese automobiles followed by bans and embargo on operation.
* Ban just one brand of popular electronic goods due to some high profile accident. Repeat every few months with more companies.
The Chinese did something incredibly stupid by picking a fight with the second largest source of trade surplus they have from a single country. There's nothing they can do to retaliate. They can make the border situation worse, and thereby accelerate their own financial costs. They can't ban Indian imports effectively. For one we don't export much to them, and for another, it's mostly intermediate goods like ore that we would want to use ourselves to manufacture things we should be making ourselves instead of import from them. That is the game theory situation here. They can hurt us, at the cost of hurting themselves even more. They can avoid or minimize their economic cost by offering more. Thus we lose, they lose more , or they mitigate losses, we win, are the two possible results. There's no economic win for them, because they are already past 'peak surplus' as far as India is concerned.
Suraj wrote:chola wrote:Surely the question must be posed, Saar! When people do stupid things is it because they are truly stupid or something Chankian is happening. I would expect the former if it were pakis but with chinis -- well, how do you end up the world's second largest power by being stupid?
IMHO you're overthinking this. Or perhaps prefer to dwell upon grand strategies of long term wins. It's your own thesis so no one else can consider it; you should provide an example where they gave up a hugely beneficial long term penetration into a major tributary market, for a better deal elsewhere ? It's important that the example be one where they *gave up* something they already had, as opposed to back out of a potential future opportunity.
Waving hands about regarding their market doesn't really have any relevance here. In the financial world, both black swan events *and* smart-guy-doing-stupid-things is very much par for the course, and even stupid acts leading to black swan events.
Pratyush wrote:chetak wrote:![]()
I am sure that the next plane to arrive will be eqipped with even more advanced medical items like gauze and bandages.
Frightened by Galwan wounds China deploys ‘flying hospital’ in Tibet
What is the antenna above the tail ramp. Doesn't look like an EW setup to me. Looks more like a radar fairing of a modern fighter to me. The question is why is a hospital plane having a radar in the tail.
chola wrote:They are not giving up the Indian market for gains elsewhere in the economic sphere.
Suraj wrote:The process isn't deliberate on their part. In fact, they did nothing different. Galwan was just the latest of decades of standard Chinese border incursion strategy. Everything that differed is in what WE did. Fundamentally, a black swan economic event is where one does the same thing they've been doing, but the response to the strategy is sudden, unexpected and costly, with no ability to mitigate.
yensoy wrote:The only thing to watch out for is Chinese export restrictions on us for machinery, heavy engineering and tooling which is critical to the development of our own infrastructure and industries. Why sell us machines to make stuffed toys if we are no longer going to import stuffed toys from them? ...or tunnel boring machines, gantry cranes, excavators, pharma APIs, boron carbide or Covid testing reagents. We may have to source our machinery through 3rd parties, or import from the West ($$), or buy used or build our own (won't always be possible).
chola wrote:
...
Are they incredibly stupid or they simply see the payoff from hardening the border as advantageous and acceptable irregardless to the loss in economic activity in India? They might see India as a lost cause anyways. Look at Hong Kong. Its market is going through a historic boom with chini tech companies. Shanghai is too. They have angered the Five Eyes with their security law but perversely it has made HK more palatable to many firms, especially the chini ones, by stopping the riots dead.
There is a dangerous phenomenon happening right now. The chini economy is growing despite covid and massive flooding. We know this because every MNC that operates there from Tesla to Starbucks to Rio Tinto (Oz iron ore seller) is reporting sales growth in Cheen far beyond the rest of the world. They are revving up their internal engine. A cheen running on a far bigger internal economy than India in a de-globalized world would theoretically mean we can never catch up. We have hopes that in depriving Cheen of trade that we can slow down their growth relative to ours. But what if that is not the case? What if the CCP doesn't want chini venture capital in Indian startups or chini infrastructure firms providing cheaper alternatives for India's own infra and power or Chini firms to become more dependent on India?
An incredibly stupid enemy is easy to deal with. We need ask if they are truly incredibly stupid.
KLNMurthy wrote:
Presumably, with all the what-ifs and the loaded questions, you really want to say, hey the Chinese are actually brilliant and Chankian onlee, we just can't see it, because, what? We are Indian and stupid ourselves? OK fine, maybe so, but then what?
I have seen your other posts advocating outright war, right away, right now. Conquer Tibet or whatever. If the Chinese are that brilliant and Chankian and we are that stupid, is it such a good idea to have an outright war with them? It would be a much better strategy in that case to put on our dhoties, crawl under our beds and lie there, shivering till we wither away and die.
If the Chinese do great with their own internal economy after the entire world, starting with India cuts them off, then let them. That's wonderful. But they don't even think they can do that right now, otherwise why do all the costly & risky BRI stuff and why all the global aggression? And if they are wrong in that, and they become rich & prosperous (even more) with a purely internal economy, what goes of our father then? We'll mind our own business and they theirs. Isn't that we always wanted?
Gyan wrote:I think China has decided that its time to Rise as the Main World Super Power. They are ready to pay the price. Let's look at their block:-
Russia & CIS
Pak, North Korea
Iran hence Qatar, Turkey
Germany hence Soft approach by rest of EU
ASEAN is soft on them just like New Zealand, Canada
Lots of African & poor Nations
Huge Segment of US Business
I think we are wrong in thinking that they did not plan it out. It may work or not but plan they did.
KLNMurthy wrote:Chinese have taken a dangerous, high-risk path, for no apparent reason. If they had kept a low profile and gone about their sneaky colonizing business, they would have owned a major part of Africa, Southeast Asia, central Asia and probably Iran and even Russia in about 10-20 years. Instead they got impatient and showed their true colors too early, making it impossible for the world powers to just let them be and rake in their share of the profits.
Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”
Users browsing this forum: LakshmanPST and 40 guests