chetak-saar, these two points from your two posts dont seem to tally:
The intention is to cut china out and take over the canal project thus denying it the wartime access which it craved desperately and was planning for decades.
the hans will break into the IOR before any blockade is set so none of them will be caught in the narrow and restricted waters of the straits when the balloon does finally go up and no navy captain worth his salt will be caught in such waters during troubled times
the chances of getting hit with a missile or heavy gunfire will ensure that traffic not bound for specific countries will quickly reroute away from the war zones
If a naval ship have to break into IOR or ICS before things go hot, then what is the point of craving for this canal by Cheen or anyone else as a wartime asset?
My point on Kra canal is closer to your second post - for wartime needs, there is no advantage in spending billions as CAPEX and billions as OPEX for the KRA canal. The locks themselves means a slow transit for the naughty ships.
In that situation, why should Khan or QUAD or us foot this bill, if the purpose of this canal is to help Xitler with his peacetime maritime commerce? Let the Cheen build it, but Thais be told in no uncertain terms that transiting PLAN ships will be treated as enemy territory and during peacetime it is a world shipping line.
I suspect this idea is occasionally floated by some corrupt minister or business clique inside Thailand, to do a Grand-Hambantota by playing off Han/Khan/India against each other and make some monies on the side. Not worth wasting any time on this
the hans will need to either protectively escort their merchantmen carrying oil and perhaps grain or deploy han naval assets to scare off roving QUAD warships looking for such juicy targets. The kra is a strategic asset that also has reasonably good economics and the icing on the cake will be the denial of the canal to the hans in war time and in peace times it will become a paying asset because sufficient fast moving container traffic may prefer the two canal kra route compared to the slower and longer malacca straits route. The kra canal would reduce shipping time by more than two days, which is very cost effective for for the ship owners as well as for businesses moving cargo.
the amerikis are spending billions every year in diego garcia because they consider it a strategic imperative. no one is talking of any ROI from diego garcia.
to altogether deny the kra option to the hans, the amerikis may just enter into a mutual defence agreement with thailand, set up a naval base at the isthmus of kra and just sit tight
or build the kra canal in partnership with many other countries and exploit it commercially thus also benefitting thailand and still keep the hans away from the kra
If the hans control the kra, they can cover the kra and much more of the sea using their long range land based as well as airborne missile assets to provide cover to their shipping traffic but if there is ameriki involvement in the kra canal, the hans will not risk attacking US assets directly. pearl harbour and its bloody aftermath consequences is still a reality. The amerikis are battle tested and regularly operate for many months at a time far from their home ports and the han navy is kindergarten grade when compared to the USN.
xi and the cpc have recently been harshly schooled in just how many friends they do not have globally. The wuhan virus and ladakh standoff have seen to that.
just think for a moment about what happens if tomorrow the members of the UN gang up and say we don't want china in the UN anymore. no more veto and no more platform to grandstand. a lot of the han nurtured myth of han invincibility comes from that veto power. Can they really withstand and survive global ostracization if their trade is vastly reduced, and say, for example, oil suppliers start to charge them blackmarket rates
I seriously doubt if the kra canal will follow the lock and lift method used elsewhere. they might just blast their way through to build a full length free flowing set of coast to coast canals to cater simultaneously to reciprocal traffic.
the prevailing tidal patterns if not apropriate to the direction of the canals may end up with silting issues leading to either restricted draught or constant and expensive dredging
the han navy will not remain bottled up in the china seas on their side of the malacca straits with japan and a part of the USN QUAD waiting at the other end and the Indians with some part of the USN QUAD waiting at this end. The han submarines will not last more than a few days before they are hunted down in those confined waters
for their warships to be safe, they need the open waters of the IOR where they can resupply/repair using the paki/iranian and some of their african facilities. the hans will not be able to protect their naval assets in the china seas
someone will mine hambantotha for sure to deny its usage to the hans. Armed han warships that close to home will spook the Indians. Just because the hans have a lease on hambantotha, it does not automatically follow that they will be allowed to have access to it. The nearest and somewhat safe harbour for them is either karachi or gwadar both of which are well within easy reach of the IN and the IAF but problematically in nuke armed pakiland.
strategic denial is often more effective than the age old methods of adverse physical possession obtained by laying down boots on the ground after the fact.
the kra option is as real as it gets to dislodge the hans from an objective and an asset that they were counting on as theirs for decades. they have been obsessed with the kra, counting on it to get them out of their darkest nightmare of an insurmountable strategic vulnerability, that of being forcefully denied the use of the malacca straits when most needed.
the amerikis have realized the existential threat that the OBOR poses to them and they are slowly moving in now to pry countries away from this many tentacled monstrosity that is a major threat to their world. the kra option is a huge nail in the han coffin making a clean sweep of the han's self confidence, authority and self esteem or their civilizational obsession with avoiding loss of face
one suspects that, in the medium term, if the kra option is taken away from the hans, xi will be the scapegoat to take the fall.
we need trump back in the Whitehouse for another four years