Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

chola · Post by **chola** » 18 Sep 2020 23:04

sanjayc wrote:^^ Won't the builders control right of entry?

What nation would give up sovereignty? No, it'll controled by Thailand. In fact, this is probably fake news drummed by the Thais and chinis to give this legitimacy. The reality is no one but the Thais and chinis want this thing.

rpartha · Post by **rpartha** » 18 Sep 2020 23:45

^^ To see this news immediately after the rejection makes it very suspicious... Also why would Australia or India or US wants to build it?? What are they going to get out of this? Saving few hundred kilometers in maritime??? Must be the handiwork of China...

rpartha · Post by **rpartha** » 18 Sep 2020 23:46

They keep on picking everyone...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/1 ... -us-417604

China flies 18 warplanes near Taiwan during U.S. envoy's visit

It's at least the second round of war games this month aimed at intimidating supporters of the island's independent identity.

chola · Post by **chola** » 19 Sep 2020 00:34

Warships and warplanes everywhere in the Western Pacific.

I've popcorn ready for quite while for this heavyweight match.

Cheen never fails to disappoint by not actually fighting though.

https://mobile.twitter.com/armynownet/s ... 7478358017

ArmyNow.Net
@armynownet

New post: China sends two aircraft carriers to sea as US conducts large-scale drills off Guam

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 19 Sep 2020 01:00

This Kra canal is not going to alter anything much from what the Malacca straits situation is right now.

In fact, India should encourage the Thais to let the Chinese fund the Kra canal, since Indian ships can use it during peacetime if needed and squeeze it during wartime.

During war, it is a liability of gigantic proportions to the Chinese. At its basic, it needs extensive air-defense network, if India says it is enemy territory.
Operationally also it is a big millstone. It will need more locks than the Gatun locks in Panama Canal, due to the greater height issues caused by the 75 odd meter high hill range that is across its path. And we all know how fast ships move in locks. Any naval ship transiting these things are sitting ducks to aerial attack or even long range AShMs fired from ships. Not to mention the predictability of where these ships will be, once they reach the mouth at the Bay of Bengal. Can more easily blockaded outside Thai territorial waters than Malacca, since it is just one country to deal with than three (Sing, Malaysia and Indonesia)

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 19 Sep 2020 01:17

RaviB wrote:为什么要送我们的孩子去死？在这片土地上，连一片草都不长。拉达克是一片无人居住的土地。我们甚至都不知道它在哪里！我们的124名士兵已经死了，我们想要多少个没有儿子的母亲？
Why send our child to die? It is a territory where not even a blade of grass grows. Ladakh is a useless uninhabitable land. We did not even know where it was! 124 of our soldiers are already dead, how many more sonless mothers do we want?

Nice

I changed the number to 124, because the 4 is inauspicious as it rhymes with death.

I think they will come back with "war with us means more mauths to feed" after looking up Hindi translation for death, using Baidu translator.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 19 Sep 2020 02:30

Chinese Antivirus Firm Was Part of APT41 ‘Supply Chain’ Attack
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/09/chi ... ecurity%29

The U.S. Justice Department this week indicted seven Chinese nationals for a decade-long hacking spree that targeted more than 100 high-tech and online gaming companies. The government alleges the men used malware-laced phishing emails and “supply chain” attacks to steal data from companies and their customers. One of the alleged hackers was first profiled here in 2012 as the owner of a Chinese antivirus firm.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Sep 2020 02:42

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 178556.cms
Rs 25,000 crore plan to cut dependence on China for key chemicals

In a series of recent meetings, the department of chemicals has identified around 75 critical chemicals and more are likely to be added to the list. The proposal for the incentive scheme includes offering 10% of production value as incentive. According to the proposal, the scheme will have an outlay of Rs 25,000 crore over the next five years.

...
India imports chemicals worth over Rs 1.5 lakh crore, of which around 85-90% comes from China, an official said. These chemicals are used in manufacturing of active pharmaceutical ingredients, insecticides and other industrial processes.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 19 Sep 2020 03:06

India-Taiwan High Level Academic, Research and Incubation Dialogue at the Raksha Shakti University
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/09/18/ ... niversity/
Gandhinagar: A high-level academic, research and incubation dialogue between India and Taiwan was organised at the Raksha Shakti University in collaboration with the Prospect Foundation, Taiwan, today – 16 September 2020. During this program, Taiwan was represented by Ambassador Chung-Kwang Tien, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs & Chancellor, Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs, Taiwan, Dr Tan-sun Chen, Chairman, Prospect Foundation, Dr Ming-Shih Shen, Director, Graduate Institute of Strategic Studies, War College, National Defense University, and Ms Vivian Huang, Director General, International Division, Institute for Information Industry.

From India’s side, Lt Gen S.L. Narasimhan, Director-General, Centre of Contemporary China Studies, Ministry of External Affairs, Mr Krishan Varma, Special Secretary (Retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, and Professor Bimal N Patel, Director-General, Raksha Shakti University (RSU) made presentations. Dr Tan-sun Chen, Chairman, Prospect Foundation emphasised the importance of having collaborative initiatives in a wide range of fields between India and Taiwan with special focus on logistics and supply chain management.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Sep 2020 03:16

hnair wrote:This Kra canal is not going to alter anything much from what the Malacca straits situation is right now.

In fact, India should encourage the Thais to let the Chinese fund the Kra canal, since Indian ships can use it during peacetime if needed and squeeze it during wartime.

During war, it is a liability of gigantic proportions to the Chinese. At its basic, it needs extensive air-defense network, if India says it is enemy territory.
Operationally also it is a big millstone. It will need more locks than the Gatun locks in Panama Canal, due to the greater height issues caused by the 75 odd meter high hill range that is across its path. And we all know how fast ships move in locks. Any naval ship transiting these things are sitting ducks to aerial attack or even long range AShMs fired from ships. Not to mention the predictability of where these ships will be, once they reach the mouth at the Bay of Bengal. Can more easily blockaded outside Thai territorial waters than Malacca, since it is just one country to deal with than three (Sing, Malaysia and Indonesia)

the hans are being squeezed out of the kra channel project.

The QUAD and some other countries including India are in the process of talking to the thai govt to let them build the canal. This is a proposition which is being viewed favorably by the thais

The intention is to cut china out and take over the canal project thus denying it the wartime access which it craved desperately and was planning for decades.

this has been gamed quite well by the amerikis and will have very far reaching implications for hans' vital logistics, sea trade and will force the recasting of their drastically changed risk management ecosystem in this region.

na rahega baans na bajegi bansuri.

xi will undoubtedly feel this sudden strategic reversal very deeply in his nether regions and it is big blow to the already faltering OBOR project

India has shown interest in building strategic Kra Canal, says Thailand

NEW DELHI: Thailand has claimed that it is not only in talks with China but with India, USA as well as Australia to build the strategically proposed Kra Canal in the Southern part of the country that could change the landscape of shipping in the region.

A parliamentary panel in Thailand on Monday claimed several nations have shown an interest in constructing a canal across southern Thailand, which could allow ships to bypass the Strait of Malacca.

He added, "More than 30 foreign firms have shown an interest in investing or supplying us with financial and technical support to build the canal."
The Strait of Malacca is a major bottleneck in China's global ambitions. 80 per cent of China's oil supplies pass through the Malacca Strait, apart from forming its trade routes to the Middle East and Europe. But India's geographical position is such that it can easily block the Western side of the Strait of Malacca.
If Thailand chooses one of three quad members interested in the project, it will be a heavy blow to China's ambitions to dominate the region.

In recent time, Thailand is acting cautiously in dealing with China.

Recently it was reported that Thailand, which once was the strongest ally of China in the South China Sea region, had decided to not only postpone the procurement of two submarines from China but has also put on hold the Chinese proposal for building a canal in the Bay of Bengal and replaced it with its own project.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Sep 2020 03:35

hnair wrote:This Kra canal is not going to alter anything much from what the Malacca straits situation is right now.

In fact, India should encourage the Thais to let the Chinese fund the Kra canal, since Indian ships can use it during peacetime if needed and squeeze it during wartime.

During war, it is a liability of gigantic proportions to the Chinese. At its basic, it needs extensive air-defense network, if India says it is enemy territory.
Operationally also it is a big millstone. It will need more locks than the Gatun locks in Panama Canal, due to the greater height issues caused by the 75 odd meter high hill range that is across its path. And we all know how fast ships move in locks. Any naval ship transiting these things are sitting ducks to aerial attack or even long range AShMs fired from ships. Not to mention the predictability of where these ships will be, once they reach the mouth at the Bay of Bengal. Can more easily blockaded outside Thai territorial waters than Malacca, since it is just one country to deal with than three (Sing, Malaysia and Indonesia)

all blockaded merchantmen will be boarded and searched before being turned away, or allowed to proceed, or taken to some friendly port and quarantined. The warships deployed for boarding duties will patrol the sea lanes near the entrance or exit of the kra canal and the malacca straits. other ships patrolling further will be tasked to interdict targets that are not tracking to expectations.

When tensions rise, many ships (98-99%) will automatically avoid the hot zones because the hull and cargo loss insurance premiums will rise very steeply and those who do cross will have very expensive voyages.

the hans will break into the IOR before any blockade is set so none of them will be caught in the narrow and restricted waters of the straits when the balloon does finally go up and no navy captain worth his salt will be caught in such waters during troubled times

the chances of getting hit with a missile or heavy gunfire will ensure that traffic not bound for specific countries will quickly reroute away from the war zones

there will be something like an ADIZ with positive IDs for all vessels within the zone

IIRC, merchantmen almost always sail specifically defined sealanes like commercial aircraft fly defined routes

countries like singapore, malaysia, thailand and indonesia will either be allied to the QUAD or friendly or neutral or unfriendly and will anyway have little to say if their own individual ships are allowed through after inspections.

under any circumstances, these little runts are certainly not going to risk pissing off a prowling USN with an itchy trigger finger.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 19 Sep 2020 04:51

chetak-saar, these two points from your two posts dont seem to tally:

The intention is to cut china out and take over the canal project thus denying it the wartime access which it craved desperately and was planning for decades.

the hans will break into the IOR before any blockade is set so none of them will be caught in the narrow and restricted waters of the straits when the balloon does finally go up and no navy captain worth his salt will be caught in such waters during troubled times

the chances of getting hit with a missile or heavy gunfire will ensure that traffic not bound for specific countries will quickly reroute away from the war zones

If a naval ship have to break into IOR or ICS before things go hot, then what is the point of craving for this canal by Cheen or anyone else as a wartime asset?

My point on Kra canal is closer to your second post - for wartime needs, there is no advantage in spending billions as CAPEX and billions as OPEX for the KRA canal. The locks themselves means a slow transit for the naughty ships.

In that situation, why should Khan or QUAD or us foot this bill, if the purpose of this canal is to help Xitler with his peacetime maritime commerce? Let the Cheen build it, but Thais be told in no uncertain terms that transiting PLAN ships will be treated as enemy territory and during peacetime it is a world shipping line.

I suspect this idea is occasionally floated by some corrupt minister or business clique inside Thailand, to do a Grand-Hambantota by playing off Han/Khan/India against each other and make some monies on the side. Not worth wasting any time on this

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Sep 2020 08:26

hnair wrote:chetak-saar, these two points from your two posts dont seem to tally:

The intention is to cut china out and take over the canal project thus denying it the wartime access which it craved desperately and was planning for decades.

the hans will break into the IOR before any blockade is set so none of them will be caught in the narrow and restricted waters of the straits when the balloon does finally go up and no navy captain worth his salt will be caught in such waters during troubled times

the chances of getting hit with a missile or heavy gunfire will ensure that traffic not bound for specific countries will quickly reroute away from the war zones
If a naval ship have to break into IOR or ICS before things go hot, then what is the point of craving for this canal by Cheen or anyone else as a wartime asset?

My point on Kra canal is closer to your second post - for wartime needs, there is no advantage in spending billions as CAPEX and billions as OPEX for the KRA canal. The locks themselves means a slow transit for the naughty ships.

In that situation, why should Khan or QUAD or us foot this bill, if the purpose of this canal is to help Xitler with his peacetime maritime commerce? Let the Cheen build it, but Thais be told in no uncertain terms that transiting PLAN ships will be treated as enemy territory and during peacetime it is a world shipping line.

I suspect this idea is occasionally floated by some corrupt minister or business clique inside Thailand, to do a Grand-Hambantota by playing off Han/Khan/India against each other and make some monies on the side. Not worth wasting any time on this

the hans will need to either protectively escort their merchantmen carrying oil and perhaps grain or deploy han naval assets to scare off roving QUAD warships looking for such juicy targets. The kra is a strategic asset that also has reasonably good economics and the icing on the cake will be the denial of the canal to the hans in war time and in peace times it will become a paying asset because sufficient fast moving container traffic may prefer the two canal kra route compared to the slower and longer malacca straits route. The kra canal would reduce shipping time by more than two days, which is very cost effective for for the ship owners as well as for businesses moving cargo.

the amerikis are spending billions every year in diego garcia because they consider it a strategic imperative. no one is talking of any ROI from diego garcia.

to altogether deny the kra option to the hans, the amerikis may just enter into a mutual defence agreement with thailand, set up a naval base at the isthmus of kra and just sit tight

or build the kra canal in partnership with many other countries and exploit it commercially thus also benefitting thailand and still keep the hans away from the kra

If the hans control the kra, they can cover the kra and much more of the sea using their long range land based as well as airborne missile assets to provide cover to their shipping traffic but if there is ameriki involvement in the kra canal, the hans will not risk attacking US assets directly. pearl harbour and its bloody aftermath consequences is still a reality. The amerikis are battle tested and regularly operate for many months at a time far from their home ports and the han navy is kindergarten grade when compared to the USN.

xi and the cpc have recently been harshly schooled in just how many friends they do not have globally. The wuhan virus and ladakh standoff have seen to that.

just think for a moment about what happens if tomorrow the members of the UN gang up and say we don't want china in the UN anymore. no more veto and no more platform to grandstand. a lot of the han nurtured myth of han invincibility comes from that veto power. Can they really withstand and survive global ostracization if their trade is vastly reduced, and say, for example, oil suppliers start to charge them blackmarket rates

I seriously doubt if the kra canal will follow the lock and lift method used elsewhere. they might just blast their way through to build a full length free flowing set of coast to coast canals to cater simultaneously to reciprocal traffic.

the prevailing tidal patterns if not apropriate to the direction of the canals may end up with silting issues leading to either restricted draught or constant and expensive dredging

the han navy will not remain bottled up in the china seas on their side of the malacca straits with japan and a part of the USN QUAD waiting at the other end and the Indians with some part of the USN QUAD waiting at this end. The han submarines will not last more than a few days before they are hunted down in those confined waters

for their warships to be safe, they need the open waters of the IOR where they can resupply/repair using the paki/iranian and some of their african facilities. the hans will not be able to protect their naval assets in the china seas

someone will mine hambantotha for sure to deny its usage to the hans. Armed han warships that close to home will spook the Indians. Just because the hans have a lease on hambantotha, it does not automatically follow that they will be allowed to have access to it. The nearest and somewhat safe harbour for them is either karachi or gwadar both of which are well within easy reach of the IN and the IAF but problematically in nuke armed pakiland.

strategic denial is often more effective than the age old methods of adverse physical possession obtained by laying down boots on the ground after the fact.

the kra option is as real as it gets to dislodge the hans from an objective and an asset that they were counting on as theirs for decades. they have been obsessed with the kra, counting on it to get them out of their darkest nightmare of an insurmountable strategic vulnerability, that of being forcefully denied the use of the malacca straits when most needed.

the amerikis have realized the existential threat that the OBOR poses to them and they are slowly moving in now to pry countries away from this many tentacled monstrosity that is a major threat to their world. the kra option is a huge nail in the han coffin making a clean sweep of the han's self confidence, authority and self esteem or their civilizational obsession with avoiding loss of face

one suspects that, in the medium term, if the kra option is taken away from the hans, xi will be the scapegoat to take the fall.

we need trump back in the Whitehouse for another four years

rajpa · Post by **rajpa** » 19 Sep 2020 08:58

India's options going forward should be to take advantage of the prevailing situation and start salami slicing of our own. We should start moving our troops to the heights all the way up to Mount Kailash - since Mt Kailash has of course always been part of India from historical times, and which does not belong to the Godless CCP. "The rights and wrongs of the matter are very clear". The Chinese have already cribbed about India having entered Chinese "border areas" and other than "kadi ninda" type statements of their own, have done nothing about it. Similar moves from the army in the Northern Ladakh areas will be very satisfying as well.

Time to start a salami slicing expedition.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 19 Sep 2020 09:30

Folks, the offer to build the Kra Canal, if true, is merely to put a spoke in the wheel. Now, Thailand cannot offer it to China unilaterally.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 19 Sep 2020 10:21

^^^^ Saar, let me stick my neck out, and make some observations based on my long experience in that region.
In Asia, the only other country (other than Japan) which has a special relationship with Khan, but keeps that relationship under the
radar, is Thailand. Khan has already made it abundantly clear to the Thai royalists that red panda shouldn't be given any more free pass.
.... And, surprise, surprise, there have been ongoing student protests against the royalists in Thailand for the last couple of weeks, -
that is panda's show of displeasure.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 19 Sep 2020 10:45

Kati wrote:.... And, surprise, surprise, there have been ongoing student protests against the royalists in Thailand for the last couple of weeks, -
that is panda's show of displeasure.

Yes, that was a surprise in a country where the King is like God.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 19 Sep 2020 11:48

The "king s like God" respect was truly applicable to the previous King Bhumibal Adulyaraj (who died just a couple of years back). He truly dedicated his life to uplift the country and his countrymen. Thailand had made rapid progress in the last three decades due to his tireless efforts to transform the country into an economic powerhouse. And the common Thais would bow their heads in respect if you mention Bhumibal's name to them.

But the current king Maha Vijralongkorn is a different animal. He is known as a playboy, spends more time with his mistresses than touring the country and looking after the masses. He is just surviving on the legacy left behind by his father. I think Panda is seeing this as an opportunity to interfere in Thailand. Reminds me of Nepal royal family.

M_Joshi · Post by **M_Joshi** » 19 Sep 2020 12:56

Modi was congratulated on his birthday by HH Dalai Lama & Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Twitter. Both those wishes went un-answered by the PM. There's still hope in South Block that our actions should not provoke the Chinese & they will come to their senses & normalcy will prevail.

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Sep 2020 14:49

It would have been replied privately. However I agree, we still have fear about "Chinese feelings"..

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 19 Sep 2020 15:49

China can safely drop nine-dash line in South China Sea and win friends in Asean: China expert - Straits Times

China could abandon the nine-dash line - which underpins its claim of up to 90 per cent of the disputed waters in the South China Sea - without hurting its long-term interests, a China military expert said on Friday (Sept 18).

In fact, abandoning the line would boost its soft power and help the country win friends in Asean, added Dr Li Nan, a visiting senior research fellow at East Asian Institute (EAI).

"This is the time for China to give up the nine-dash line. It doesn't work in its interest," said Dr Li during a webinar about the maritime dispute, which was organised by EAI and ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.

The speakers at The South China Sea Dispute: United States-China Rivalry, Lawfare and the Prospects for a Code of Conduct were mostly academics. They agreed that Asean and China were unlikely to issue guidelines on actions in the South China Sea by next year's deadline, given the Covid-19 pandemic.

Run-ins between China and claimant Asean states such as the Philippines and Vietnam in the disputed waters have increased this year.

Tensions are also escalating between China and Indonesia. The latter lodged a protest with Beijing earlier this month after a Chinese coast guard ship spent two days in Indonesia's exclusive economic zone, off the Natuna Islands in the South China Sea.

China's nine-dash line, which is in conflict with international maritime law but which China uses to claim waters around Natuna Islands, is at the heart of the dispute.

Dr Li said that Chinese coast guards have had to enforce their jurisdiction according to the nine-dash line and "that caused all the problems with the coastal states".

He added that abandoning the nine-dash line will serve China's interests, including boosting the country's soft power.

He pointed out that China had conceded parts of the nine-dash line before, in the early 1950s, when it removed two dashes as a gesture to its communist comrades in northern Vietnam.

But the Chinese leaders might face a backlash from institutions like the People's Liberation Army (PLA) if they make similar concessions again, he said.

"What really drives Chinese foreign policy is not so much public opinion as it is institution dynamics," he added.

"If China really decides to modify the nine-dash line... I don't think the PLA will like that."

Dr Li's comments drew a rebuke from co-panellist Le Hong Hiep, a fellow at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.

Dr Le said: "China did erase two dashes... but again, in 2010, it added another dash in the East China Sea. So, I'm not sure whether China really makes concessions regarding the nine-dash line."

"But I totally agree with Dr Li that it would be a great idea and good for China's soft power if it dropped the nine-dash line altogether," he added.

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Sep 2020 16:07

What is SCS value to the Chini? I look at the map and the only thing I can think off is the access to IOR.

rpartha · Post by **rpartha** » 19 Sep 2020 17:54

nam wrote:What is SCS value to the Chini? I look at the map and the only thing I can think off is the access to IOR.

I dont think that it matters whether it has any value or not... the same can be said about all their other territorial fights with other countries... the actual land may be of little value but probably from their perspective it says who is the top dog... Medieval Kingdom attitude... having said that atleast SCS allows them to control major trade route compared to their other fights...

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 19 Sep 2020 18:28

M_Joshi wrote:Modi was congratulated on his birthday by HH Dalai Lama & Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Twitter. Both those wishes went un-answered by the PM. There's still hope in South Block that our actions should not provoke the Chinese & they will come to their senses & normalcy will prevail.

Disappointing as most likely there would have been reply to paki PM's tweet.

rpartha · Post by **rpartha** » 19 Sep 2020 19:07

Ok... just checked... Dalai Lama's tweet was to state that he has sent a letter wishing Modi on his birthday. And he has shared the link to his letter and Modi was not tagged. So it is not a wish tweet - technically. I sincerely hope Modi responds to his letter and publicizes it.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 20 Sep 2020 04:31

Chinese hackers compromised Indian government websites: US Justice Department
https://www.wionews.com/india-news/chin ... ent-328727
...
"In about 2019, the conspirators compromised government of lndia websites, as well as virtual private networks and database servers supporting the government of India. The conspirators used VPS PROVIDER servers to connect to an Open VPN network owned by the government of India," the indictment said.

The conspirators had installed "Cobalt strike" malware on Indian government-protected computers, it added.

"In one notable instance, the defendants conducted a ransomware attack on the network of a non-profit organization dedicated to combating global poverty," it said.
....

rajpa · Post by **rajpa** » 20 Sep 2020 06:41

rpartha wrote:
nam wrote:What is SCS value to the Chini? I look at the map and the only thing I can think off is the access to IOR.
I dont think that it matters whether it has any value or not... the same can be said about all their other territorial fights with other countries... the actual land may be of little value but probably from their perspective it says who is the top dog... Medieval Kingdom attitude... having said that atleast SCS allows them to control major trade route compared to their other fights...

The reason why China wants to expand is certainly to expand and acquire more cheap natural resources to feed their "manufacturing bowl of the world" .. if these territories were in the grasp of another country, they would have to buy from that country through normal trade.

The root cause of this is the medieval mindset of the CCP which is a relic of the past with its communist centralised control ideology - the chinese characteristics are just band-aid to a badly broken system.

rajpa · Post by **rajpa** » 20 Sep 2020 06:57

Coming back to Xitler..

My theory is that he is a complete non-believer in communist ideology himself. He is acutely aware of its ideological and operational flaws after having been in power in the system for so many years.

Xi's one true desire now is to grab all power and centralize it around himself and go back to the Emperor era, be a just king with his Winnie the Pooh charm and Uncle Xi persona and rule with the mandate from heaven.

Which is probably a fair call.. Putin has been able to do that to some extent.. The world is a bit disappointed with democracy and someone like him/Putin may provide the much needed stability.

But wait. Stability doesn't seem to be happening. That is because dictators have to create trouble everywhere to continue to stay in power. Perhaps even a world war. Which is not a good thing.

Perhaps democracy is better after all with its flaws.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 20 Sep 2020 11:50

Russia Starts Military Buildup In The Far East Near The Chinese Border - Reuters via Swarajya

Russia has started a military buildup in the far-East of its province near the Chinese border by citing tensions in the eastern strategic direction, Reuters has reported.

As per Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu the military reinforcements were sent to the far-east due to "tensions in the eastern strategic direction". The exact details of the troop mobilisation were not provided by the Defence Minister.

The eastern strategic direction refers to an area which "encompasses Russia's eastern border with China and the wider Asia-Pacific".

Besides the military buildup the Russian Defence Minister has also announced an upgrade of Russia's Northern Naval Fleet. The far-eastern region will also get 500 units of new modern military equipment.

The report quotes an analyst as saying that Russia is ensuring sufficient military deployment in the region in case a naval conflict between the United States and China spills over.

It should be noted that a few months ago Russia and China were embroiled in a war of words. After Russian officials had posted a video of 160th anniversary celebrations over the founding of Vladivostok on Weibo, Chinese officials quickly picked a bone with them by claiming that Vladivostok used to be Chinese territory in the 19th century.

So China can't afford to leave its northern and north eastern tracts undefended. Especially after the recent low-level spat over Vladivostok and protests in Khabarovsk (about which the Russian govt may have suspicions of its own given the history with the Ussuri river nearby). The Russian actions makes sense if one were to take these protests into account - Khabarovsk is one of, if not their most important node in the Russian far east - it sits astride the Trans-Siberian route to Vladivostok (which is a huge natural harbour providing round-the-year sea access), as well as providing the best land access to Sakhalin island along the Amur river. It is also on the banks of the Amur river, and is a stone's throw away from the Chinese border (Heilongjiang province). The strategic Trans-Siberian railway runs within artillery range of the Chinese for quite a distance, and the Russo-Sino border in this area is not that defensible. So some show of strength is the only way to deter external designs - this is true for both Russia and China. While the border here is officially settled for more than a decade now, the Chinese being who they are, cannot resist making outbursts like over Vladivostok last month and they still view as unjust the Qing dynasty treaties that let Russia consolidate its hold over Vladivostok and the Amur-Ussuri area (it's from the same era as their "century of humiliation", which appears to be an alive and kicking meme even today). So we can trust the Chinese to keep the issue warm enough to provoke the bear, whose counter responses would tie down Chinese defence efforts - they won't necessarily go to war, but this border won't be a US-Canada border anytime soon.

This SCMP article provides a good summary of the discomfiture Russia has w.r.t. her far east: Chinese in the Russian Far East: a geopolitical time bomb?

This situation, of course, is very useful for us, as that ties down a good portion of the PLA here, reducing the number of troops they can deploy to Tibet. Oh, and if the WTC troops have a "little princes" problem due to the harsh weather and high altitude in Tibet, this frontier is no better - it perhaps gets as cold as Tibet, with temperatures plunging to -40C in winters - so effectively similar challenge, minus the high-altitude problem. All in all, PLA has its hands full.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 20 Sep 2020 16:52

This seems like a golden chance for all chinese neighbors to move their military to the disputed areas. chinese would have to try to use non military means to make some happy. Win win situation for any chinese neighbor as long as India is trying to send chinese back from Tibet border. Overall chinese expenses will keep going up with neighbors going paki and keep extracting one thing or another to stay calm and happy.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 20 Sep 2020 19:18

M_Joshi wrote:Modi was congratulated on his birthday by HH Dalai Lama & Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Twitter. Both those wishes went un-answered by the PM. There's still hope in South Block that our actions should not provoke the Chinese & they will come to their senses & normalcy will prevail.

un answered publicly you mean

he would not have been so crass as to let it go unacknowledged.

However, it is high time that we not let the uncultured and bullying hans come in the way of our other relationships.

Modi would look extremely foolish if he were to reverse any of the measures taken by him in the aftermath of the galwan attack.

Gaddri has to and should always have serious consequences.

It cannot simply be business as usual and back to pappi jhappi with xi all over again

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 21 Sep 2020 01:46

SSridhar wrote:Folks, the offer to build the Kra Canal, if true, is merely to put a spoke in the wheel. Now, Thailand cannot offer it to China unilaterally.

I haven’t seen much discussion about the Chinese base in Djibouti. What are its capabilities?

What are the chances of gently explaining to Djibouti that the Chinese base and their hinterland territory would be fair game for IN and IAF if Chinese warmongering carries on its present path (as it is bound to)?

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 21 Sep 2020 02:33

KLNMurthy wrote:
SSridhar wrote:Folks, the offer to build the Kra Canal, if true, is merely to put a spoke in the wheel. Now, Thailand cannot offer it to China unilaterally.
I haven’t seen much discussion about the Chinese base in Djibouti. What are its capabilities?

What are the chances of gently explaining to Djibouti that the Chinese base and their hinterland territory would be fair game for IN and IAF if Chinese warmongering carries on its present path (as it is bound to)?

Shorty answer is - Not so easy.

It's actually pretty [url=China Military Base Djibouti
Unnamed Road, Djibouti
https://maps.app.goo.gl/Bwjtcugr6RwoGVaD8]small[/url]. Couldn't make out berthing facilities but has an airstrip for 250m odd. When they put it up in close proximity to the US and Italian base it was a shock but then Chinese purse strung diplomacy has always worked on the East African littoral.

Fact is Djibouti has nothing other than its strategic location and dreams of emulating Doha and Dubai as the trading hub and city of refugee for capital for East Africa. Having multiple foreign countries invested and trying to outbid each other plays into their plan.

Here's an updated report from Forbes

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Sep 2020 08:33

If you've carefully noticed,Ru has steadily reinforced its naval forces with new Kilo subs and warships.While this may conventionally be seen as protecting its territory and naval bases from the massive USN ,the huge PLAN increase and NoKo's ambitions are two of the key factors in the build up. Years ago during the Cold War era,various consulates and embassies in pre-Net days
would have regular film shows,docus and feature films,invitations for which were much
in demand.The French,Br.Council and Germans had the best films.One Ru docu was an animated one about a legendary Ru hero who staved off attacks not from the west but the east! Our historians have focussed more attention on the European wars with Napoleon and Hitler invading Russia from the west,but have ignored the historical threats to it from the east.

Russia was invaded by the Mongols,Moscow destroyed and was part of the Mongol empire for about 250 years under the " Golden Horde". Therefore,uppermost in the minds of Russians is not the west's threat,but that from the east,China. As China flexes its military muscles, and demands its " lebensraum" in Asia and the world, it is the huge land mass of Russia and its vast mineral wealth that it will covet more and more. Putin has understood the truth of the saying," keep your friends close,your enemies closer."

chola · Post by **chola** » 21 Sep 2020 13:05

Before we go overboard with how the world is helping us "isolate" Cheen, let's remember the world don't give a chit about our issues or justice in general.

Our trade with the chinis might be dropping but not everyone else.

https://www.ft.com/content/6f65b053-af1 ... adbe3f4e00

China’s export machine comes roaring back to life

Big economies may be struggling but their appetite for Chinese electronics is growing

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/yuan-ra ... rther.html

China’s yuan is rallying sharply against the dollar — and analysts say there’s room to run

Usually a dropping currency helps exports. But here Cheen right now is "suffering" from the good fortune of having both a booming export market AND a strongly rising local currency.

Strong currency benefits the domestic economy by making energy and raw material cheaper but harms exports. Cheen is having its cake and eating it too because of the virus in its name.

There is no justice in this world. And Karma only works in the next life.

India needs to get the virus under control and get the economy moving. There will be little material help from others if you cannot export. Cheen might be hated but they can build and export and so they get real moolah to expand their economy.

csaurabh · Post by **csaurabh** » 21 Sep 2020 18:27

=== baseless comments against community deleted, repeat of this would earn a warning ===

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 21 Sep 2020 18:41

=== maintain decorum while replying ===

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 21 Sep 2020 19:41

=== maintain decorum while replying ===

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 21 Sep 2020 20:34

csaurabh wrote:Exactly!

While we were yapping nonsense, Chinese went ahead and built the world's biggest factories producing everything.

I agree! The great game has these two strong dimensions/pillars - military strength and economic strength. GOI has always looked at a single pillar. Need to look at both. India needs to get her act together and behave its stature. The people of India play a large role in not supporting wasteful actions by GOI or opposition. If you don't like a policy - don't strike on the streets, vote the government out. Can Indians be that mature for their own good or will every third rate politician's ambitions rock the nation and keep it teetering at the brink of disaster?

Our bania led companies mostly just assemble things imported from China. They are not capable of any R&D or innovation.
Chinese R&D and products has caught up almost to western standards for a much lower cost, which is in demand worldwide.

Blaming the industry shows immaturity. Maybe watched too much of "Namak Haraam"/bollywood projecting welfare of the individual and unions over industry? Industry and industrialists the world over are the same and behave much like Trump. They have only one guiding light and religion - Profit. What most in India forget is that building an industry takes years of hard work - destroying it takes a minute. Industrialists like Anil Ambani, Vijay Mallya, Cafe Coffee Day promoter, Rajan Pillai (Britannia), and countless others have worked hard only to see their wealth erode into thin air due to the rigid, unresponsive attitudes of GOI. If Anil Ambani can lose his billions - does industry in India stand a chance?
The GOI sends hordes of inspectors - taxation, labor, power, weights and measures, Town planners and others that continually harass industry - where is the time for research. If you do a research on the assets of bankers and taxmen of India - you would want to at least put them behind bars for decades if nothing else. Each one of them has played a part in harassing and shutting down industries.

For research and industry to grow India needs to build secure Cities that parallel the best in the world to attract world class talent, provide industry friendly policies - reduction of power tariff, improve labor laws to allow firing of unproductive work force. Industry has to be nurtured with lot of care and support. Hunting industrialists and putting them behind bars scares industrial sentiment and kills innovation.

Remember - industry is a gamble at best; However there is no great mechanism in India for bankruptcy filings etc. So Failure implies that the industrialist will lose his wealth, home and perhaps have to commit suicide to escape the hordes of GOI inspectors that will still keep gunning after him. In such a bleak scenario where only success is supported you cannot have an industry, leave alone research which is even more riskier. Look at Arjun and the LCA - GOIs own research that the IA and IAF don't even want to touch. If India wants industrial growth, then "jail all Modi" will need to be like the pathans of old who would lend to those that could not return the money in the hope of their revival.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Sep 2020 03:16

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/e ... 2020-09-21
Exclusive: China to lose access to Australian space tracking station {source: Reuters}

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... K1B7H.html
Amid China’s actions across Indo-Pacific, 2nd Quad meeting slated to be held in Tokyo in Oct

The second ministerial meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad is expected to be held in Tokyo early next month, people familiar with developments said, with the meet coming against the backdrop of China’s aggressive actions across the Indo-Pacific.

The meet will be held at a time when all four members of the Quad have serious differences with China – India is engaged in a border standoff in Ladakh, the Australian government has pledged to halt projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Japan is worried about Chinese intrusions near the Senkaku Islands, and the US is engaged in a trade war.