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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 24 Nov 2017 17:19

SS sir, HH Dalai Lama is very clear about independence. His subsequent words are clear what he wants. He is clear about Tibet since atleast 1959.

In order to put his point that "China is OK for us, as long as the Hans don't interfere", he used English language, to convey this message. Instead of saying, "we never sought independence..." he used present tense, HH Dalai Lama is always for independence, not for losing Tibet to Han colonization. Just see his subsequent words.

There's a day when India would liberate Tibet and HH Dalai Lama would safely be back to Lhasa. That is the reason he is still living and he will till 125 years, if that is the time required for India to do it's Dharma.

What is clear in his mind is that, India will do a Bangladesh to Tibet, that time will come, sooner or later.

I also see that is the only way India is going to survive. Yes, 2017 Doklam is just a warning to Hans, but they have not learnt any lesson. That was not the correct time yet to diamember China.

But surely, China will be cut to size by India.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Nov 2017 18:15

TK, my question was different. You said, "ToI is anti-national, it has an agenda" etc. But, at least in this case, they have not given any opinion. They have simply reported what he said, unless you say that the words ascribed to the Dalai Lama were not spoken by him.

Hence my question remains unanswered.

As for whether he wants Tibet as an independent country or he is satisfied with it being part of China but with more autonomy, these are debatable.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 24 Nov 2017 18:37

Toi has an agenda to show that HH Dalai Lama is against Indian interests. For the last 10 years, every time HH Dalai Lama says something, they twist as if innocently, quoting selective words.

Many a times HH Dalai Lama had to give clarification.

There's vile campaign to tarnish the image of HH Dalai Lama in India.

The truth is that, he is always for independence of Tibet. He genuinely doesn't have any problems with Hans, in fact, India also doesn't have any problems if Hans show Tibet as one of the provinces of China.

The problem comes only when Han want to wipe out the Tibetan Buddhist way of life, their language and culture.

Han want to utilize Tibetan water for mainland China. They have no respect for culture or language, they want the Tibetans to die and establish Han colony. In fact, they used Tibet for their overland nuclear explosions in Lop Nor. For Han, Tibet is a conquered land and they should be able to loot mineral wealth and water and utilize Tibet as "Sex Slave" if I have to give correct analogy taking leaf from Islamic invasions.

HH Dalai Lama has never been against Indian interests. That was what I was trying to say.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Hari Seldon » 24 Nov 2017 19:19

How can we expect the Dalai lama to take a firm stand in favor of Tobetian independence even if that is his foremost wish if Delhi, his host, doesn't permit him to do so?

How can HH take a stand diametrically opposite to that taken by Delhi, that TAR is part of PRC?

Let Delhi call TAR 'disputed' first, then if HH speaks against Delhi - pin the blame on him, say I.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Peregrine » 25 Nov 2017 01:59

PLA faces enlistment crunch with fewer young Chinese

The country has fewer youngsters who can enter the labor market and a demographic slump that could force the PLA to get tougher on conscription

Foxconn, the contracted manufacturer for US tech giant Apple, has been accused of forcing student interns at its Zhengzhou base in central China’s Henan province to work extra hours in a bid to rev up output of iPhone Xs for an expected sales boom over the festive season.

Labor rights issues aside, the revelation comes amid a trend that may be worrying for some in China – the country now has fewer youngsters who can enter the labor market and shore up productivity, a demographic slump that could hurt its economic future.

A report by Beijing-based China Remin University has sounded the alarm: the national workforce aged between 15-59 has decreased by 20 million within the past five years, from the peak of 925 million in 2011, and is forecast to shrink to 700 million by 2050.

A separate analysis by Nikkei has said that China’s young population aged from 15 to 24 years will halve to 60 million by 2020, from its peak of 120 million in 2006.

Worse still, fewer youngsters in the rapidly shrinking age group are joining the labor market, as more are pursuing tertiary education amid a changing mindset and career perspective – young people are less enamored with low-paying, labor-intensive jobs.

The People’s Liberation Army will be competing with the nation’s manufacturing sector to woo young Chinese.

The Chinese military has also been bogged down by an emerging “soldier crunch”, a result of multiple factors from the one-child policy to unattractive remuneration.

While salaries for frontline soldiers have been beefed up in recent years, the nation’s decreasing young population means less young people the military can draw recruits from.

No official year-on-year statistics are available on changes to the PLA’s number of annual recruits, but a report by China National Radio noted that the eastern province of Shandong, home to 98 million, saw a “double-digit” decrease in new enlistments for national service over the past three years (2013 to 2016).

The PLA now maintains 2.35 million active personnel with around 150,000 to 200,000 leaving or retiring each year. To maintain effective defense mobilization and replenish the force, it will have to recruit at least 250,000 new soldiers each year – an onerous task that has to be done with stricter enforcement of mandatory conscription.

One proposal is that all new freshmen must sign up for conscription, as a prerequisite before they can be admitted to a university.

The PLA has also been reviewing recruitment requirements to raise the upper age cap for enlistment to 26 years old.

Cheers Image


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Nov 2017 09:30

I have moved the two posts on the sceptic tank issue to "Positive news from the Middle Kingdom".

Let's keep this thread for more serious discussion please. Thanks.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Nov 2017 14:39

India acts fast to counter Chinese moves in Myanmar - Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Economic Times
India's military exercise with Myanmar and move to deliver relief material for displaced people in Rakhine state are in keeping with its strategic interests of expanding relations with the neighbouring country at a time when China is seeking to extend its influence in the region.

The Rohingya refugee crisis and the situation in Rakhine have provided an opportunity for China to try to expand its strategic partnership with Myanmar by offering to broker a deal with Bangladesh and create economic projects in the disturbed zone.

However, India, in a timely move, kicked off a military exercise with Myanmar last week to keep the country's all-powerful military engaged. This was followed by 3,000 family relief packs delivered to Rakhine on Friday.

Rakhine is critical to the strategic objectives of both India and China. Kaladan multimodal project, India's dream connectivity project in the region, originates from the restive state.

China, on the other hand, is building a port not far from the Indian built Sittwe port - the nodal point for Kaladan multimodal project - in Rakhine to connect Bay of Bengal with Kunming province. The project has been included in China's Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, stability in Rakhine is as important for India as it is for China.


The $484-m Kaladan project plans to connect Sittwe port with Mizoram through multimodal means. The port is ready for use and work is on for the road connectivity segment of the project.

China recently proposed to build an economic corridor with Myanmar through Rakhine, which Chinese experts say would allow the country access to the Indian Ocean. Rakhine will also be transit for the $1.5 b oil pipeline from Bay of Bengal to China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Nov 2017 18:18

Chinese general commits suicide after facing graft probe: Xinhua - Straits Times

Gen. Zhang Yang was the Director of the military’s Political Work Department (which acts as the bridge between the Party and the Military conveying Party's messages to the military) was the deputy to Gen. Fang Fenghui who was the Chief of the Joint Staff, next only to Supreme Commander Xi Jinping. Both were members of the CMC (Central Military Commission) that oversees the entire Chinese military. Both Generals were removed from the CMC suddenly a few weeks before the just concluded 19th Congress. Gen. Zhang's three deputies were also relieved of their positions. No one knows what happened to them.

Gen. Fang Fenghui's fate now hangs in balance.

A top Chinese general committed suicide after authorities opened an investigation against him over his links to two corruption-tainted former senior military officers, state media said Tuesday (Nov 28).

Zhang Yang, a member of the Central Military Commission, hanged himself in his Beijing home on Nov 23, Xinhua news agency said, citing a commission statement.

Zhang, 66, was the latest official to be ensnared in President Xi Jinping’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign, which has brought down 1.5 million Communist Party officials of various levels as well as top military brass since 2012.

Zhang, who was the director of the commission’s general political department, was investigated in connection to Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, top military officials who were expelled from the ruling Communist Party.

Guo, a vice-chairman of the commission, became the most senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) official to be convicted of corruption in half of century when he was sentenced to life in prison in 2016.

Xu, also a vice-chairman of the commission, died of cancer in 2015 while undergoing a probe for graft.

In September, Hong Kong’s Sing Tao Daily newspaper, citing unnamed people from Beijing, reported that Zhang was one of two officials being investigated for suspected breaches of party discipline.

According to Xinhua, Zhang “gravely violated disciplinary protocols and broke the law, was suspected of bribery as well as taking bribes, and holding valuable assets whose origins are unclear”.

A post on a social media account managed by the People’s Liberation Army Daily, the military’s official newspaper, accused Zhang of “escaping responsibility” via suicide.

“The once-high-and-mighty general has ended his life in this disgraceful way,” the post said on Tuesday, calling Zhang a “two-faced” person who “shouted loyalty from his mouth while committing corruption behind his back”.

“The army holds the barrel of a gun – we cannot allow any corrupt elements to hide behind it.”


Critics of Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, which has promised to take down both high-level “tigers” and low-level “flies”, claim it is a front for removing the president’s political enemies.

In the past, graft-fighting efforts have relied heavily on a shadowy, extralegal internal justice system known as “shuanggui”.

But Xi announced during last month’s national congress that the tool will be phased out and replaced with a new legal mechanism.

Chinese courts have a near-perfect conviction rate of 99.92 per cent.

Xi has sought to enhance his control over the two-million-strong military, the world’s largest, reshuffling its leadership and vowing to make it “world-class” by 2050.

The military was ordered earlier this month to pledge to be “absolutely loyal, honest and reliable to Xi” in a new guideline released by the military leadership.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sudhan » 28 Nov 2017 18:51

SSji, any of these 'soosais' / disappearances linked to one of these General's pig headed handling of the Doklam incident?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Nov 2017 18:54

sudhan, from my earlier post here, I don't think so.

However, IMO, Gen. Fenghui's removal may not have much (or even anything) to do with Doka La. Along with Fenghui, the Chief of Political Work Department, Gen. Zhang Yang, and his three deputies were also removed. This is significant because the Political Work Department serves as the bridge between the CPC and the PLA. The PLA is after all not a national force but a Party force. Their first loyalty is to the Party. Therefore, Gen. Zhang Yang's removal denotes that "Xi's Thoughts" and his "Four Comprehensives" had not been sufficiently appreciated within the PLA necessitating in a wholesale removal. This also means that there is resistance within the PLA for Xi's governance.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sudhan » 28 Nov 2017 20:40

Thanks. Excellent post, that.

Where does this sweeping purge leave their warfighting capability?

Has the purge spared anyone capable and experienced enough to lead their forces? Not sure if any of the current bigwigs have seen any combat in their lifetimes.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prem » 29 Nov 2017 07:03


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 12:30

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/itanaga ... 844165.cms

Arunachal river turns black, officials blame China

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 12:33

China not only is violating India's sovereignty in Kashmir, but also diverting Tibet waters to China. Time to free Tibet from imperial China has arrived.

"Will India do it's Dharma?" is the big question.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Suraj » 29 Nov 2017 12:35

China fears an Indian ‘stab in the back’ if it fights Taiwan
For New Delhi, it was obvious that Beijing’s fortification of the border area – including widening a road for the People’s Liberation Army, which sparked the tension – had endangered its national security. That is because Doklam is close to the Siliguri Corridor, aka the Chicken’s Neck, a vital strip just 27 kilometers wide at its narrowest, that links its eastern states to the rest of India.

Beijing’s motive, other than beefing up its military buildup in Tibet, has much to do with the question of Taiwan.

Hong Kong-based military commentator Andrei Chang noted in a column that Beijing is deeply concerned that India might “stab it in the back” if it sends troops in a southeast direction to reclaim Taiwan, should the renegade island declare independence.

The PLA would have to fight two wars – one in front and a second at the rear – should New Delhi, which has never been amicable with Beijing, take the opportunity to pick a fight on the Chinese border.

If this is indeed the case, then the Doklam Incident just reinforced to the PLA that India *can* stab it in the back effectively, and is no longer mentally constrained by 1962.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2017 13:35

TKiran wrote:China not only is violating India's sovereignty in Kashmir, but also diverting Tibet waters to China. Time to free Tibet from imperial China has arrived.

"Will India do it's Dharma?" is the big question.

And, we also have 'scholars' who are suggesting that China cannot rob us of Brahmaputra waters and the scare that it would do so does not stand scrutiny. Read this.
Excerpt
Prima facie, it can be said that the impacts of water diversion (or even hydropower like the Zangmu Dam) in the Yarlung-Tsangpo cannot have substantial impact on the flow regime in the Indian boundary, especially in the Assam floodplains and Bangladesh. The concern of many in India has been based on the perception that structural interventions always reduce downstream flows, which, in case of Brahmaputra, is not true.

Based on the hydro-meteorological data, it seems highly improbable that a cloudburst can occur in the rain-shadow Tibet so as to cause floods in Assam. Therefore, the “Brahma hypothesis” or the myth spread in the media does not stand the test posed by scientific data and knowledge. Informed science should inform public perceptions, policy, hydro-politics, and water governance, rather than jingoistic emotions or linear, reductionist logic.

As one commentator posted there,
This article is a fine example of Indian scholarship doing everything at its command to fritter away Indian rights to others with great felicity! Whether Brahma Challaney's thesis has merit or not is only one part of the issue, but the other part is whether China has the rights to unilaterally alter the course of a transboundary water body, build dams and thereby reduce the traditional flows affecting the lower riparian states. The author has gone to enormous extent to 'prove' that even if China dries up Yarlang Tsangpo, Brahmaputra would have enough water to cater to India and Bangladesh too ! What a twisted logic. In essence, the argument here is that a revisionist hegemon can do as he pleases and the rest have to accept 'scholarly' arguments even from their very own to be a mute spectator !! The Chinese are also building a dam on the Satluj at Zada. So, what justification is the author going to trot out for that? All this, while India has to meticulously follow the IWT.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2017 15:34

X-posted from India-Singapore thread.

Rapid & significant developments.

India, Singapore for increased activity in Strait of Malacca - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu
Singapore is keen on expanding maritime cooperation with India in the Malacca straits and the Andaman Sea, Defence Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen said on Wednesday.

“We all recognise Strait of Malacca and the Indian ocean are key sea lanes of communication... I think I speak on behalf of both countries, we want to see more participation and activity in both Strait of Malacca and Andaman Sea,” he said at the joint press conference along with his Indian counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman after the second Defence Ministerial dialogue.

These comments are significant
as the Strait of Malacca is a critical choke point for global commerce and is seen by China as a vulnerability for its energy supplies.

Early this year, the Indian Navy has permanently deployed a frontline warship at the mouth of the straits to keep an eye on increasing Chinese movements in the Indian Ocean.

Dr. Ng said it makes sense for countries to cooperate not only to establish maritime security but to maintain freedom of navigation because “we know it is lifeline for economies”.


He also welcomed the Indian Navy to use their naval facilities for operational turnaround.

“I not only support but I would encourage the Indian Navy to visit Changi naval base more often. The bilateral naval agreement has a provision for mutual logistical support,” he stated.

This would allow greater Indian presence near the contested waters of South China Sea. {at both ends} The ministerial dialogue saw the conclusion of India-Singapore bilateral agreement for navy cooperation which will allow cooperation in maritime security, joint exercises, temporary deployments from each other’s naval facilities and mutual logistics support.{Another LEMOA?}


The two ministers also agreed to institutionalise naval engagements in the shared maritime space, including establishing maritime exercises with like-minded countries and ASEAN partners {Singapore will head the ASEAN in 2018} , a joint statement said.

“We will exercise and patrol in your waters as you do in ours. We try to economise and support each other,” Dr. Ng added.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 16:04

^^^ once CPEC is operational, China doesn't have to worry about Malacca, if we block Malacca, they will close Arabian sea for India, time is now to cut off CPEC, whether some excuse exists or not. Reintegration of PoK NA has to be done now.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kashi » 29 Nov 2017 16:30

TKiran wrote:^^^ once CPEC is operational, China doesn't have to worry about Malacca, if we block Malacca, they will close Arabian sea for India, time is now to cut off CPEC, whether some excuse exists or not. Reintegration of PoK NA has to be done now.


How will they do so without interfering with the oil supplies coming out of the Persian Gulf?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 16:38

^^^ sir, I mean the same, they will allow the oil supplies to Gwadar but will block traffic for other destinations.

From Gwadar they would have a smooth traffic flow to by CPEC to China, probably oil pipeline is also part of secret CPEC.

They will sell oil to BRI countries through pipeline and surface transport.

US will not be interested to drawn to Arabian sea or Indian ocean, if China assures US that they will not block pacific ocean, they will be content.

US is already pussy though a lot of people do not agree with me. India is the new child in the Block and China is the Adult bully.

Oil will be sold in RMB/yuan once CPEC is operational.

A stitch in time saves nine is what I am saying.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 29 Nov 2017 17:17

If India blocks Malaca to the Chinese, why would we not block CPEC as well, which is much easier than blocking Malacca?

CPEC is not about trade or oil. It is the flanking position for the Chinese. Check on the map, they are a land locked nation. They dont have open access to the sea.

Gwadar lets them flank this blockade and have open access to the sea/ocean. PLAN based will force division of US assest across two areas. Chinese will have it easier, because it LOC is on land. US LOC is on the sea.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2017 18:17

Today, PRC's imports of oil & gas have to cross three choke points: Bab-al-Mendeb, Strait of Hormuz & Melakka.

The three crucial chokepoints carry a huge volume of fuel for China. Bab-el-Mandeb (oil transport from South Sudan on the Red Sea), Hormuz Strait (for oil & gas from Persian Gulf almost 40% of China’s total crude oil) and the Malacca Straits (37% of Chinese LNG imports and 67% of oil imports)

Chinese Oil imports January-June, 2017 (total 212 MT)

Code: Select all

Saudi Arabia          26.5
Angola                27.1
Russia                29.2
Iraq                  17.8
Oman                  17.0
Iran                  14.5
Venezuela             11.3
Brazil                12.4
Kuwait                 8.0
UAE                    6.2
Others                42


Except from Russia and some 'Others', the rest of the above have to go through Melakka, notwithstanding the Gwadar-Kashgar or pipelines from Myanmar's Kyaukpyu and Maday island to its refineries at Yunnan and Chongqing provinces respectively. The Myanmar pipelines still carry West Asian crude and have to cross the Strait of Hormuz and transit through Arabian Sea past the A&N Triservices command. Now, China cannot have a unilateral and unchallenged sway over the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, IN's presence here will be stronger than PLAN's.

The Gwadar-Kashgar pipeline cannot replace this huge volume.

Secondly, the proposed Gwadar-Kashgar pipeline has to be huger to cater to the needs of other countries if this is an alternate to shipping. In addition, if the Chinese shutdown Strait of Hormuz, how are major consumers such as South Korea, Japan going to get their energy supplies? They will consider that as a declaration of war. Besides, the revenues of Persian Gulf oil exporting countries will be hit hard and they will not take it lightly.

All in all, Hu Jintao's Melakka Dilemma has no magic wand to disappear.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Atulya P » 29 Nov 2017 18:35

Sea lane blockade is selective and need not impact SK/Japan/Asean. CPEC disruption by us (or by Nature/Weather) will not be selective, it will be total. In any case, blocking of sea lanes is de-facto declaration of war. Such blockades (if any) along with the ensuing war will not last more than 2 weeks. This is what is being planned for by Jaitley's phase 2 announcement of raising ISPR to 3-fold.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 18:44

nam wrote:If India blocks Malaca to the Chinese, why would we not block CPEC as well, which is much easier than blocking Malacca?

Once CPEC is operational, it's impossible to block it, India will never be able to take back PoK and NA, unless we go for all out war with China. Even if we go for all out war with China, the task of doing a Bangladesh to Tibet is impossible.

Why allow CPEC, allow Oil trade in RMB, then threaten to cut off CPEC, and then launch military strikes in Tibet, and still reduce the chances of success to only 1%?

A stitch in time saves nine is what I was trying to say.

Nam sir, your analysis is based on assumptions
CPEC is unviable, uneconomical, easy for India to disrupt at any point of time etc. But I see this talk as wrong, CPEC is very much beneficial for both Pakistan and China, very much viable, and impossible to disrupt by India. So you will never see the points I am making or we will ever agree with each other's​ analysis. Let's agree to disagree.
Last edited by TKiran on 29 Nov 2017 18:59, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2017 18:49

By the way, I am all for disruption of CPEC and nipping this menace in the bud itself.

We cannot be complacent that the Melakka Dilemma can be exploited by us if ever it comes to that.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2017 18:50

Atulya P wrote:Sea lane blockade is selective and need not impact SK/Japan/Asean.

That will not be possible, the selective blockade of a narrow strait.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 29 Nov 2017 19:18

TKiran wrote:^^^ once CPEC is operational, China doesn't have to worry about Malacca, if we block Malacca, they will close Arabian sea for India, time is now to cut off CPEC, whether some excuse exists or not. Reintegration of PoK NA has to be done now.

Fallacy debunked multiple times. First let us know what is the carrying capacity of the CPEC road. Without that data rest all is just hawa baazi.

Per one Baki report @ 100 trips/trucks per day capacity, the CPEC will not even be able to transport 1/10 of 1% of the current Chinese trade. The report was posted on the CPEC thread and analyzed.

Folks have started to just throw out statements like
Yuan will displace USD as the international reserve currency
CPEC will bypass Malacca

At least throw some data however wrong that is.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby srinebula » 29 Nov 2017 19:21

panduranghari wrote:Just for example, within 3 years Modi has done structural changes in the bureaucratic machinery..

Sir, can you give some examples of this?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 29 Nov 2017 19:24

TKiran wrote:
nam wrote:If India blocks Malaca to the Chinese, why would we not block CPEC as well, which is much easier than blocking Malacca?

Once CPEC is operational, it's impossible to block it, India will never be able to take back PoK and NA, unless we go for all out war with China. Even if we go for all out war with China, the task of doing a Bangladesh to Tibet is impossible.

Again hogwash ....

How is blocking CPEC, which is different from retaking PoK, linked to "doing a Bangladesh to Tibet"? What is the logic? Why does India have to fight in Tibet to take back PoK block CPEC?

One presicion Brahmos stricke on a critical bridge is all it will take to "block" CPEC for a period of time. Keep repeating to keep CPEC blocked. Don't even need to enter PoK, forget grabbing PoK.
Last edited by pankajs on 29 Nov 2017 19:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 19:26

^^^ pankajs sir, CPEC is not just a road, it's economic corridor, pipelines​, refineries, and many things more even pakis don't know.

The China's Tibet dilemma will be once and for all solved with CPEC, (only Tibet dilemma China has is that India can do a Bangladesh to Tibet because of geography). Once that is gone, they will divert Tibet waters to Han China. India will never be able to stand upto China in the field of TRADE, India will have no choice but to accept the hegemony of China, and CPEC is the seed. Doklam was an opportunity to get concessions from China to STOP CPEC, but that time has passed, India is inherently week except that it is a good market for China, some software coolies and one or two Patanjali's, imported shiny fighter aircrafts. Yes Indian Navy is still a formidable challenge, that too will be blunted with Gwadar by PLAN.

Indian politicians are weak in strategically countering China, whether you will accept it or not, Chinese trade deficit with India has doubled right under the nose of NSitaraman. China will swallow India with trade as it's strategic weapon. You may not agree with me but it's OK. If we don't take back PoK and NA, this is what is going to happen.
Last edited by TKiran on 29 Nov 2017 19:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 29 Nov 2017 19:29

Re-read your post and the portion that you quoted of the other poster. It was about bypassing Malacca via CPEC at its core argument. Here I am requoting the portion
TKiran wrote:
nam wrote:If India blocks Malaca to the Chinese, why would we not block CPEC as well, which is much easier than blocking Malacca?

Once CPEC is operational, it's impossible to block it, India will never be able to take back PoK and NA, unless we go for all out war with China. Even if we go for all out war with China, the task of doing a Bangladesh to Tibet is impossible.


Your are again doing the same thing that you did with your last post i.e.Linked blocking CPEC with fighting to retake Tibet. The question was about *blocking* CPEC as a bypass for Malacca. Not related to how many refinery or Power plant or mining projects or dam projects, etc the Chinese finance/build inside bakistan.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 29 Nov 2017 20:01

TKiran wrote:^^^ pankajs sir, CPEC is not just a road, it's economic corridor, pipelines​, refineries, and many things more even pakis don't know.

The China's Tibet dilemma will be once and for all solved with CPEC, (only Tibet dilemma China has is that India can do a Bangladesh to Tibet because of geography). Once that is gone, they will divert Tibet waters to Han China. India will never be able to stand upto China in the field of TRADE, India will have no choice but to accept the hegemony of China, and CPEC is the seed. Doklam was an opportunity to get concessions from China to STOP CPEC, but that time has passed, India is inherently week except that it is a good market for China, some software coolies and one or two Patanjali's, imported shiny fighter aircrafts. Yes Indian Navy is still a formidable challenge, that too will be blunted with Gwadar by PLAN.

Indian politicians are weak in strategically countering China, whether you will accept it or not, Chinese trade deficit with India has doubled right under the nose of NSitaraman. China will swallow India with trade as it's strategic weapon. You may not agree with me but it's OK. If we don't take back PoK and NA, this is what is going to happen.

What is the logic behind "The China's Tibet dilemma will be once and for all solved with CPEC". The rest if the post does not answer this basic assumption.

"India will never be able to stand upto China in the field of TRADE". Again wide off the mark. The other nations who had to bow to China have a trade surplus with China e.g. SoKo, Phillipines, etc. Not so with India. India does not have to "accept the hegemony of China" on trade. Infact, the Chinese action and SoKo reaction leads us to the EXACT OPPOSITE conclusion. Don't listen to me but at least listen to China saar!

Another example in the line of "China is gleat"
1. Yuan will become THE reserve currency > Indians in general will move themselves and their money to US rather than China. So why will they stock up on or stuff their pillows with Yuan rather than Dollars?
2. CEPC will bypass Malacca > Does not matter if the capacity of the project does not even allow transit for 1/10th of 1% of the current Chinese trade.

Looks like you have decided "China is gleat" and will twist/batter every know fact/logic to somehow reach that conclusion. I can't stop someone who is hellbent on bending known facts but I will call you out on all such occasion and I will create a list of your "China is gleat" logic and make it part of my every reply.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby A Deshmukh » 29 Nov 2017 20:15

if we can block Malacca, we can also block & sink any enemy naval flotilla off gwadar. all it needs a couple of Su30s. CPEC can be blocked as easily with one or two missile strikes. why the dhoti-shiver?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 29 Nov 2017 20:18

^^
Because "China is gleat" don't you know! No logic or application of brain required. Just like CPEC will allow China to bypass Malacca. Don't talk of capacity. Those things are for fools like myself.

Ever wonder how many port China has and how much capacity such ports have in total to ship out all its trade when compared to Bakistan's ports? But such so called "facts" don't count. China is gleat! That is all that counts. CPEC will allow china to bypass Malacca.

Hell is taking one truck across the Karakoram is the criteria then Malacca was bypassed even when CPEC was not even on the drawing board. Why .. why Malacca was bypassed via Nathu La even during the donkey caravan days.
Last edited by pankajs on 29 Nov 2017 20:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2017 20:26

X-posted from India-Singapore thread.

Eye on China, India and Singapore ink naval pact - Rajat Pandit, ToI
India and Singapore on Wednesday inked a naval pact to majorly crank up their maritime security cooperation with access to each other's bases, while reiterating the need for all to respect freedom of navigation and trade in international waters in the backdrop of China's aggressive and expansionist behavior in the Asia Pacific region.

The naval cooperation agreement to bolster maritime security, joint exercises, "temporary deployments from each other's naval facilities" and mutual logistics support was inked after the delegation-level talks between defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her Singapore counterpart Dr Ng Eng Hen here in the morning.

Easy access to the Singapore port, with refueling and berthing facilities, will serve to enhance the operational reach of Indian warships and aircraft east of the Malacca Strait, which is a critical choke point for China's ever-expanding energy supplies. It fits into India's overall "Act East" policy to deepen military ties with ASEAN countries like Singapore, Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia as a counter to China.

India, in turn, will provide naval practice and logistics facilities to Singapore, which will include live firing drills in the Andaman Sea, to add to similar services already being provided to the army and air force of the city-state for the last 10 years
, as was reported by TOI on Tuesday.

Appreciating India's "leading role" in the Indian Ocean Region, Dr Ng said Singapore would "encourage" more Indian warships to come its shores, help in further securing the sea lanes of communication towards the Andaman Sea and the Strait of Malacca, expand and institutionalize maritime exercises with like-minded regional and ASEAN partners.

"We want to see more participation, cooperation and activity in both the Strait of Malacca and the Andaman Sea," said Dr Ng, adding that it was crucial to join forces against terrorism, chemical, biological and radiological threats.

Sitharaman, in turn, said the two countries had decided to expand overall defence ties and were "strongly committed" to boosting cooperation in tackling transnational security threats, especially terrorism.

The two countries also decided to renew the bilateral army pact, under which facilities are provided to Singapore for exercises of mechanized forces at Babina and artillery at Deolali ranges, when it ends next year.
The bilateral air force one, under which F-16 fighters from Singapore regularly exercise at the Kalaikunda airbase in West Bengal, was renewed for another five years in January this year.

Singapore's proposal to expand the "Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea" to all ADMM-Plus (ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus) countries as well as to establish guidelines for air encounters between military aircraft in order to reduce the risk of miscalculations also figured in the discussions.

On regional security, the two countries reiterated the importance of maintaining maritime freedom of navigation in international waters, right of passage and overflight, unimpeded commerce and access to resources in accordance with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 29 Nov 2017 20:39

^^^ pankajs sir, what you are saying is that according to solid data, CPEC is dead on arrival. That is a good news.

But I assumed that CPEC once operational is detrimental to India. Since that is not happening that's (my analysis is wrong) indeed good news. We don't need to do anything.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 29 Nov 2017 21:46

TKiran wrote:Once CPEC is operational, it's impossible to block it, India will never be able to take back PoK and NA, unless we go for all out war with China. Even if we go for all out war with China, the task of doing a Bangladesh to Tibet is impossible.


China is building infrastructure in a disputed region. It better understand the risk associated with it. If China thinks a future $10 trillion economy is going to give up terroritorial claims for a silly road, then it is delusional. It is a different matter al together if we going to do it or not.

Regarding the ops aspect of attacking CPEC, we can pound it with artillery for decades.. It is not Chinese terroritory. They are welcome to carry out artillery duels, with we being on the heights and they stuck with Pakis in the Karakoram valley.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby periaswamy » 29 Nov 2017 22:15

TKiran: We don't need to do anything.


Don't know if you were being sarcastic, the point being made is that CPEC is not capable of high throughput of goods if we compute it in tons/week (for example). The corresponding figures for supercontainer traffic in the ocean compared to road traffic via CPEC would be higher by many orders of magnitude -- a ship can carry 21000 twenty-foot containers compared to about 1 container per truck or 100 containers for a goods train with 100 multi-modal container carriages.

That does not mean CPEC does not have high symbolic value for Eleven Dingding and the PLA's plans of world domination. That also means, that the ocean is the only way for a bulk of china's trade to/from the rest of the world, so there is more value to blocking china at sea, or at least negating their naval power, if the intent is to hurt them economically.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby anupmisra » 29 Nov 2017 22:59

To effectively and permanently blockade CPEC and make it financially unviable, India should think along the lines of "Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan". More importantly, Balochistan. The "road corridor" and the "port" make SeePak strategically valuable to the chinese. The rest of the proposed "economic" development in pakhanistan is small potatoes for them.

The diplomatic and moral support for the Baloch freedom struggle should become one effective instrument for India to use.


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