Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby IndraD » 06 Jan 2018 20:58

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/03/news/ec ... index.html
Pakistan's central bank said it has officially adopted China's yuan as a currency for trade between the two countries, which are neighbors and allies.
That means companies in China and Pakistan can now trade directly in yuan instead of having to use currencies such as the U.S. dollar.

Pakistan Replaces Dollar With Yuan for Bilateral Trade With China http://www.news18.com/news/world/pakist ... 20961.html

is it possible China is looking to get Yuan validated along side petro dollar in ME for oil transactions?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 06 Jan 2018 23:33

NRao wrote:^^^^^

I fully expect all nations, surrounding India, to become protectorates of China in another 25 years or less. Economically as well as militarily. And then China will deal with individual Quad nations to break the quad relationships.

I think it is very critical for Indians to build a strong political system within India first.


The countries that the PRC truly wants — Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore — are protectorates of the US so they are barred in the East leaving the West and the South onlee since Russia is to their north.

Far better Cheen has a chithole like Pakiland than Japan or Taiwan in the grand scheme of things.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 07 Jan 2018 00:02

^
Right on Japan, etc ....

But to become THE dominant global power China has to dislodge US from Japan, Korea, Taiwan and restrict it to the east of Guam. China cannot even become THE dominant power in Asia with US still sitting at its doorsteps in Taiwan and Korea at least.

Eleven has declared 2049 to be the key year and that's about 32 years away. So by 2049 China has to take back Taiwan and push US out of Korea at the very least. But that will be too late for India to shape up.

Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region. This with the understanding that US will continue trying to retain its position as the top dog in the international system and in Asia.

[Based on a lot of videos I have watched on China US relations in the last 2 days]

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby DavidD » 07 Jan 2018 02:55

IndraD wrote:http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/03/news/economy/pakistan-china-trump-trade-yuan-dollar/index.html
Pakistan's central bank said it has officially adopted China's yuan as a currency for trade between the two countries, which are neighbors and allies.
That means companies in China and Pakistan can now trade directly in yuan instead of having to use currencies such as the U.S. dollar.

Pakistan Replaces Dollar With Yuan for Bilateral Trade With China http://www.news18.com/news/world/pakist ... 20961.html

is it possible China is looking to get Yuan validated along side petro dollar in ME for oil transactions?


Possible? The war has already started. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are already trading in Yuan, and China reportedly is pressing Saudi Arabia. China sees an opportunity in Trump, and while the world is preoccupied with NK, ISIS, Jerusalem, and whatnot the the real war has already started.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby A_Gupta » 07 Jan 2018 07:35

pankajs wrote:^
Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region. This with the understanding that US will continue trying to retain its position as the top dog in the international system and in Asia.


Don't underestimate the rapidity of American decline. I wish people felt the urgency.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby devesh » 07 Jan 2018 09:50

pankajs wrote:^
Right on Japan, etc ....

But to become THE dominant global power China has to dislodge US from Japan, Korea, Taiwan and restrict it to the east of Guam. China cannot even become THE dominant power in Asia with US still sitting at its doorsteps in Taiwan and Korea at least.

Eleven has declared 2049 to be the key year and that's about 32 years away. So by 2049 China has to take back Taiwan and push US out of Korea at the very least. But that will be too late for India to shape up.

Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region. This with the understanding that US will continue trying to retain its position as the top dog in the international system and in Asia.

[Based on a lot of videos I have watched on China US relations in the last 2 days]



Given how things are going in China, and their historical patterns, I don't think India has 25 years. A conflict will likely be forced on us much before the 25 year window. If we can prolong the conflict by fighting a "long war", we have a good chance of being the "victor". It's been done before in history (Maratha vs Mughal)....although the asymmetry is not as stark as it was in those times.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 07 Jan 2018 13:13

A_Gupta wrote:
pankajs wrote:^
Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region. This with the understanding that US will continue trying to retain its position as the top dog in the international system and in Asia.


Don't underestimate the rapidity of American decline. I wish people felt the urgency.


Arun,

What are you basing this on? What will contribute and by which evidence do you see the rapidity of American decline?
If anything I see China consistently overplaying her hand. Even the Japanese in their heydays did not attempt such idiocies...
For me my calling out Doklam has made me more confident of what I am saying...

Also why should anyone assume rapid Chinese ascendency as well? By what evidence? If anything they are in relative decline as well.

Finally, even if the US were in decline, how does China coopt/become the security guarantor for its near shore neighbors?
None of their actions seeem to indicate any logical undersanding of strategy. Their 36 strategyms seems to be to become the neighborhood goon!
Goons live short meaning less lives :mrgreen:

PS: That said, I do think China has a different trajectory than what has been discussed publicly.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 07 Jan 2018 13:50

pankajs wrote:Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region.

IMO, we will be facing China (and again alone but for some diplomatic support from other Quad members, which China will ignore) in the next ten or twelve years in the normal course of events. If Xi is impatient or if things go wrong for Xi in his second term, he may, like Mao, try to attack India in order to retain his hold on the Party and the masses, in which case it will be according to exigenceies and much before ten years.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 07 Jan 2018 14:36

SSridhar wrote:
pankajs wrote:Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region.

IMO, we will be facing China (and again alone but for some diplomatic support from other Quad members, which China will ignore) in the next ten or twelve years in the normal course of events. If Xi is impatient or if things go wrong for Xi in his second term, he may, like Mao, try to attack India in order to retain his hold on the Party and the masses, in which case it will be according to exigenceies and much before ten years.



Nuclear clouds in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Harbin will not be a great sight to communist if they attack India. Close to 60 percent Chinese population lives in urban areas Vs India's 30 percent. Communist will fall if they attack India. Besides I don't think they would like to loose Tibet certainly as glows will be off then. I am sure that the best China will do is to use puke against India just as they use NoKo against USA and keep them engaged. We shall be doing regular incursions in Tibet to make life very expensive for Chinese to maintain infrastructure in Border areas. We can do so cheaply by providing weapons to people recruited along the border and encroach the area bit by bit. If there is confrontation these guys go back but ma!e life hell for them patrolling whole area.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 07 Jan 2018 15:20

ashish raval wrote:
SSridhar wrote:IMO, we will be facing China (and again alone but for some diplomatic support from other Quad members, which China will ignore) in the next ten or twelve years in the normal course of events. If Xi is impatient or if things go wrong for Xi in his second term, he may, like Mao, try to attack India in order to retain his hold on the Party and the masses, in which case it will be according to exigenceies and much before ten years.



Nuclear clouds in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Harbin will not be a great sight to communist if they attack India. Close to 60 percent Chinese population lives in urban areas Vs India's 30 percent. Communist will fall if they attack India. Besides I don't think they would like to loose Tibet certainly as glows will be off then. I am sure that the best China will do is to use puke against India just as they use NoKo against USA and keep them engaged. We shall be doing regular incursions in Tibet to make life very expensive for Chinese to maintain infrastructure in Border areas. We can do so cheaply by providing weapons to people recruited along the border and encroach the area bit by bit. If there is confrontation these guys go back but ma!e life hell for them patrolling whole area.


Here's my crystal gazing into the aspects from the collected discussions here.
  1. Rise of Lizard looks inevitable with waning of the Eagle. Lizard will try to dominate world, and India will continue to be a thorn in its side
  2. As long as India is able to inflict pain on the Lizard, there will be no hot war. Ravalji's contention of nuclear clouds over eastern seaboard is pertinent. We need to work on our economy and continue building up indigenous military power. No one, not the Eagle, not the Quad, not Vlad will side with a power who is weak. Lizard will only fight if they believe that victory will be theirs with little losses.
  3. The game plan for the Lizard will center around continual harassment, and trying to gradually grind into irrelevance Indian power on multilateral forums- economic, diplomatic. They win if without going to war, they can humiliate or make India dhoti-shiver. For that what would be the expected actions- nibble away at territory, keep India on edge by propping up irritants like Baki claim to PoK, thwart India's attempts at going after PigLETs on international fora, slowly encircle India to limit its regional influence, at times trigger crisis if required between India and PoK, harness the Indian market for funding not only their economy but also slow down India's ascent, create simultaneously a fear of Omnipotence and being harmless in the minds of Indian citizens so that they are limited in their support for the government in all situations short of all out confrontation. To aid this Lizard will try to suborn Indian leadership (politicians, bureaucracy) and media. This is the long therm threat, where through suborning elements within the Government leading to irrational policy/ reactions, sapping the emotion and passion of the People, that the Lizard will try to destroy the two pillars of the classic Clausewitz's Trinity that is necessary for a successful war. This is Cold War redux.
  4. High time we realize that the war has begun. What Eleven means by 2049 is not a hot war, but a time of Pax Lizardica. How we counter this is a question beyond a few hurried lines typed out on BRF, but yes, recognition of the problem is the first step. Lizard, wittingly or unwittingly is following Total War (The aim of war should be the defeat of the enemy. But what constitutes defeat? The conquest of his whole territory is not always necessary, and total occupation of his territory may not be enough.) through all means- propaganda, military, economy.
  5. Maybe as BRFites the best that we can do is help counter Chinese propaganda, spread awareness beyond the forum of Chinese designs. Sadly, most of our countrymen, view the world through rose-tinted glasses of Panchsheel and do not recognize the nefarious designs of the Lizard
Last edited by Mukesh.Kumar on 07 Jan 2018 15:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby VKumar » 07 Jan 2018 15:22

China will attack India through its pet mongrel Pakistan. Never directly. That is not Chinese nature. They will never attempt what they cannot easily win.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 07 Jan 2018 16:10

chola wrote:
NRao wrote:^^^^^

I fully expect all nations, surrounding India, to become protectorates of China in another 25 years or less. Economically as well as militarily. And then China will deal with individual Quad nations to break the quad relationships.

I think it is very critical for Indians to build a strong political system within India first.


The countries that the PRC truly wants — Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore — are protectorates of the US so they are barred in the East leaving the West and the South onlee since Russia is to their north.

Far better Cheen has a chithole like Pakiland than Japan or Taiwan in the grand scheme of things.


In the larger scheme of things Taiwan and Korea don't matter. Japan to some extent due to its tech, otherwise it is too small a nation.

Just like the US which control Atlantic and Pacific, the chinis want to control Pacific and more important the Indian ocean. They can do by having a Asian nato and overlord it.
A group of Asian countries China Russia India Indonesia , if possible Japan will alliance, will be far greater than any alliance humanity has ever seen.

China will either try to do this with SCO or see to it that big Asian power don't trouble.

What can we do : economy and technology. Hold the fort in IOR. Our geography makes sure we will be a dagger in to IOR.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 07 Jan 2018 16:26

nam wrote:
chola wrote:
The countries that the PRC truly wants — Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore — are protectorates of the US so they are barred in the East leaving the West and the South onlee since Russia is to their north.

Far better Cheen has a chithole like Pakiland than Japan or Taiwan in the grand scheme of things.


In the larger scheme of things Taiwan and Korea don't matter. Japan to some extent due to its tech, otherwise it is too small a nation.

Just like the US which control Atlantic and Pacific, the chinis want to control Pacific and more important the Indian ocean. They can do by having a Asian nato and overlord it.
A group of Asian countries China Russia India Indonesia , if possible Japan will alliance, will be far greater than any alliance humanity has ever seen.

China will either try to do this with SCO or see to it that big Asian power don't trouble.

What can we do : economy and technology. Hold the fort in IOR. Our geography makes sure we will be a dagger in to IOR.


Cheen can never control the Pacific without Korea, Japan and Taiwan. East Asia is critical if Cheen ever wants to become a dominant power. Not only economically but geo-strategically. China cannot reach the wider Pacific without controlling at least one of them.

The US knows this and keeps the Lizard bottled up at its very doorstep and forcing the chinis through a much harder and less profitable road to the west. Even were the PRC were to control Central Asia plus Pakiland/Bangladesh/Iran through OBOR, it would still be a poor tradeoff. The US will gladly keep Japan, Korea and Taiwan in exchange for the muzzie chitholes that Cheen must make due with.

This idea about Japan or Korea being small is idiocy. Korea is about the size of the UK or France and Japan is more than twice that, nearly the same population as Russia. Those nations are P5 and global powers.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby A_Gupta » 07 Jan 2018 18:19

Pulikeshi wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:
Don't underestimate the rapidity of American decline. I wish people felt the urgency.


Arun,

What are you basing this on? What will contribute and by which evidence do you see the rapidity of American decline?


It is not that the US is doing well, but China is doing better. The US is doing poorly, and is also self-destroying the seeds of its own renewal. It need not be so, but to discuss that would be going into politics.

PS: there appears to be no "understanding the US" thread where such evidence can be posted.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 08 Jan 2018 00:18

chola wrote:Cheen can never control the Pacific without Korea, Japan and Taiwan. East Asia is critical if Cheen ever wants to become a dominant power. Not only economically but geo-strategically. China cannot reach the wider Pacific without controlling at least one of them.

The US knows this and keeps the Lizard bottled up at its very doorstep and forcing the chinis through a much harder and less profitable road to the west. Even were the PRC were to control Central Asia plus Pakiland/Bangladesh/Iran through OBOR, it would still be a poor tradeoff. The US will gladly keep Japan, Korea and Taiwan in exchange for the muzzie chitholes that Cheen must make due with.

This idea about Japan or Korea being small is idiocy. Korea is about the size of the UK or France and Japan is more than twice that, nearly the same population as Russia. Those nations are P5 and global powers.


Until there is a hot war or open threat from Japan, there is no bottling China in the east. US will park some aircraft carrier, Chinese will park their near US.

Japan has horrible birth rates. You are not a power if you don't have enough people to fight. By end of this year our GDP will be greater than UK and France 2 security council members. By 2018 out of top 5 economies , only 2 will be security council member.

By 2030 we are the only nation expected to reach 10 trillion. Japan will have dying population. No one will bother about security council members.

By 2030 There might be agreement China takes Pacific , us takes Atlantic and India takes IOR. However the real wealth as it has been for centuries is within IOR.

Chini want to be the overlord before we grow up to 10 trillion.we need to reach 5-6 as soon as possible.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 08 Jan 2018 04:17

Good points Nam no, Mukesh ji and Chola sir.

One point however is dying population does not necessarily equate to less power. In 20 years skies will be full of swarms of drones, UCAV and tanks will be unmanned and AI will be omnipresent in wars. Population will be irrelevant in winning wars, technology will matter the most. However, what will remain important to see is where China will be standing among these and I definitely see them in top 4. I know that are researchers in West (atleast in UK they are) who are currently developing AI controlled Drones firing lasers. It is being done on a smaller scaled models and they are freakishly accurate and fiendishly fast like shown in Star Wars movies - something humans cannot compete with in terms of speed, accuracy and maneouverabilty. What is important here is AI War Engine and systems are just application layers working like plug and play devices. Once they master AI War Engine it will be a quantum jump in the war fighting abilities. I am sure Chinese will be doing them too and lot Chinese researchers are good in AI too. Just how good the apply it to war fighting is subject to discussion.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kit » 08 Jan 2018 06:03

chola wrote:
nam wrote:
In the larger scheme of things Taiwan and Korea don't matter. Japan to some extent due to its tech, otherwise it is too small a nation.

Just like the US which control Atlantic and Pacific, the chinis want to control Pacific and more important the Indian ocean. They can do by having a Asian nato and overlord it.
A group of Asian countries China Russia India Indonesia , if possible Japan will alliance, will be far greater than any alliance humanity has ever seen.

China will either try to do this with SCO or see to it that big Asian power don't trouble.

What can we do : economy and technology. Hold the fort in IOR. Our geography makes sure we will be a dagger in to IOR.


Cheen can never control the Pacific without Korea, Japan and Taiwan. East Asia is critical if Cheen ever wants to become a dominant power. Not only economically but geo-strategically. China cannot reach the wider Pacific without controlling at least one of them.

The US knows this and keeps the Lizard bottled up at its very doorstep and forcing the chinis through a much harder and less profitable road to the west. Even were the PRC were to control Central Asia plus Pakiland/Bangladesh/Iran through OBOR, it would still be a poor tradeoff. The US will gladly keep Japan, Korea and Taiwan in exchange for the muzzie chitholes that Cheen must make due with.

This idea about Japan or Korea being small is idiocy. Korea is about the size of the UK or France and Japan is more than twice that, nearly the same population as Russia. Those nations are P5 and global powers.


Quite true that Japan looks "small" in maps due to the cartography used but size wise bigger than UK !

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kit » 08 Jan 2018 06:06

A_Gupta wrote:
pankajs wrote:^
Given the above, I agree with NRao that we have about 25 years to build up to face China alone [No Quad and ambivalent if not hostile neighbors] in the IOR region. This with the understanding that US will continue trying to retain its position as the top dog in the international system and in Asia.


Don't underestimate the rapidity of American decline. I wish people felt the urgency.


America recently posted a 3.3 percent growth in GDP .. what decline ? .. thats in a 18.5 trillion economy !

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 08 Jan 2018 07:45

this might partially explain why indian drugs are sometimes useless and why people try to obtain even OTC meds from relatives abroad claiming they are more effective.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 401572.cms

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 08 Jan 2018 07:56

Will Amreeka decline? Yes, no empire lasts forever.

But we will not see that decline in our lifetime.

Not only is it the most powerful state on earth by a WIDE margin right now but it is on the very doorsteps of its main challengers while the challengers can at the most threaten to beat up one or two of Amreeka’s proxies (SoKo or Poland.)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 08 Jan 2018 08:03

A_Gupta wrote:It is not that the US is doing well, but China is doing better. The US is doing poorly, and is also self-destroying the seeds of its own renewal. It need not be so, but to discuss that would be going into politics.

PS: there appears to be no "understanding the US" thread where such evidence can be posted.


Perhaps there should be such a thread...

But US is in no decline, the Chinese are in no ascent ~ given the data we have we are in an unpredictable world.
We are in the world of the "Everything Bubble" at assets at 3.5 times total global market :shock: :P

This is by far the most risky the macro-economic and geo-political situation has been since the end of WWII.
Anyone overplaying or underplaying will bear inordinate risks given the fluid situation. Actually India if they play right can do counter!
The game will be between US, China and India - this much one can be sure of! I would not write off the EU yet!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby shiv » 08 Jan 2018 10:11

Pulikeshi wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:It is not that the US is doing well, but China is doing better. The US is doing poorly, and is also self-destroying the seeds of its own renewal. It need not be so, but to discuss that would be going into politics.

PS: there appears to be no "understanding the US" thread where such evidence can be posted.


Perhaps there should be such a thread...

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7615

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 08 Jan 2018 13:09

Singha wrote:this might partially explain why indian drugs are sometimes useless and why people try to obtain even OTC meds from relatives abroad claiming they are more effective.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 401572.cms

True my Chinese friends and colleagues buy bag loads of protein, amino acid and vitamin supplements to distribute to relatives whenever they travel back home. They just simply say "better quality" than saying "they are rubbish back home".

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 08 Jan 2018 14:11

chola wrote:
ashish raval wrote:
What are we importing from China? Electronics? Surely can't be that big!!

I found this. Scary if true..no wonder we have explosion of products in such short time without going to length of manufacturing them in India. Or shall we assume we don't have technical knowhow or skills to manufacture them?

Surely none of these are rocket science to me.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-biggest-import-from-China-to-India-And-how-to-import-from-china-to-india



Look, it is the same in the US or UK. Though now, you can see more and more “Made in Vietnam” or “Bangladesh” in Walmart.

Why?

If you check on any one of the chini firms mentioned in the quora article (a good one btw) and do a little research you will find that it is probably a private, provincial or even village level company that at some early point in its history had ties or investment from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, SoKorean or Japanese companies.

That is how Cheen got itself plugged into the global supply chain. It all started with Japan and as its wages increased those lower tech products were passed on to the Four Tigers who then passed on to the PRC as their wages increased in turn.

Now they are being passed on to Vietnam and Bangladesh from the PRC. Though Cheen as a still poor nation (compared to the Tigers) still clings on to much of the lower tech items like toys and toiletpaper even as they are making market share in the high tech ones (smartphones, telecom gear, commercial drones.)

But make no mistake, the next wave of nations in the global supply chain is coming up. If we make an effort to we can replace the chini imports of everyday white goods from Vietnam and others.

But obviously the best solution is to get OURSELVES into the global supply chain. Get in before the AI/Automation revolution anyways.


A country of traders & baniyas can't get into AI/Automation unless we first learn to manufacture vast variety of products. Not a single machine worth mentioning is being made in India. Almost 95% of all machinery used by Indian industry is imported and a large portion of it from China.

Now China being ahead in Mfg sector, already has skilled labor, large pool of engineering & assembly skill readily available, they will dominate AI/Automation as well. There is no shortcut to this. In India, we first need to nurture manufacturing sector, let assembly lines spring up across the country, let our factories make atleast daily use items, then 15-20 years down the line, we can be in a position where Automation can be harnessed. Right now Automation for Indian industry is like asking the neanderthals to build factories.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 08 Jan 2018 17:27

Opposed to US 'finger-pointing' at Pakistan on terror-related issues: China - PTI
China on Monday said it is opposed to the US "finger-pointing" at Pakistan and linking it with terrorism, insisting that the responsibility of cracking down on terror outfits cannot be placed on a particular country.

China's support for its all-weather ally came as the US stepped up its efforts to pressure Pakistan to eliminate terror safe havens on its soil.

The US last week suspended approximately $2 billion in security assistance to Pakistan for its failure to take decisive action against terror groups like the Taliban and the Haqqani Network.

"China has always opposed linking terrorism with any certain country and we don't agree to place the responsibility of anti terrorism on a certain country," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a media briefing.

He was responding to a question on a White House official's remarks that China could play helpful role in convincing Pakistan that it was in its national interest to crackdown on terror safe havens.

"We have stressed many times that Pakistan has made important sacrifices and contributions to the global anti terrorism cause," Lu said.

"Countries should strengthen anti-terrorism cooperation on the basis of mutual respect instead of finger-pointing at each other. This is not conducive to the global terrorism efforts," he said.


China has been vocal in extending support to Pakistan since US President Donald Trump increased rhetoric against Islamabad providing safe havens for terrorists.

Trump in a New Year's Day tweet accused the country of giving nothing to the US but "lies and deceit" and providing "safe haven" to terrorists in return for $33 billion aid over the last 15 years.

Chinese media has been speculating that Trump's efforts to step up pressure on Pakistan may move it closer to Beijing as China is involved in a number of projects in the country under the $50 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The Chinese official media is highlighting reports that Pakistan may allow China to build a a military base at Jiwani located close to Iran's Chabahar port, which is being jointly developed by India, Iran and Afghanistan. Jiwani is also close to the strategic Gwadar port in Balochistan which is being developed by China.

While defending Pakistan, Lu said China at the same time backed international counter terrorism efforts {China thinks that it can speak with a forked tongue on terrorism like in this case or in the case of Hafeez Saeed or Masood Azhar and people & nations would believe that nonsense}.

"First and foremost, I would like to say that terrorism is the common enemy of the international community. Cracking down of terrorism calls for the joint efforts from the international community," he said.

"Actually, China is defending countries that have been making anti-terrorism efforts in a just and fair way. China also welcomes all the global joint efforts in terms of counter terrorism on the basis of mutual trust and mutual respect," he said.


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 08 Jan 2018 17:48

Chandragupta wrote:
A country of traders & baniyas can't get into AI/Automation unless we first learn to manufacture vast variety of products. Not a single machine worth mentioning is being made in India. Almost 95% of all machinery used by Indian industry is imported and a large portion of it from China.

Now China being ahead in Mfg sector, already has skilled labor, large pool of engineering & assembly skill readily available, they will dominate AI/Automation as well. There is no shortcut to this. In India, we first need to nurture manufacturing sector, let assembly lines spring up across the country, let our factories make atleast daily use items, then 15-20 years down the line, we can be in a position where Automation can be harnessed. Right now Automation for Indian industry is like asking the neanderthals to build factories.


I have this habit of checking what was the state of Chinis 10 years before. During 2006-07, Chinis were around 2.3-2.4 trillion GDP.

They were already know as the world's factory by this time and their GDP was equal to what we have now.

The strange thing is our manufacturing is nowhere near worthwhile, yet we are 2.3 trillion!

So either we have missed the bus completely or we have a huge opportunity in front of us.

AI/Automation will be applied to producing goods which require precision( hence time consuming) to reduce the production time. It is not going to be applied to making stuff like toys or house appliance. Chinis export tremendous amount of these low value stuff.

We need to grab it.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 09 Jan 2018 08:16

Intrusion in Arunachal: China agrees to stop road construction work, India returns seized equipment - Rajat Pandit, ToI
China has agreed to stop road-construction activity across the Line of Actual Control+ (LAC) near Bishing in Tuting area of Arunachal Pradesh, with Indian troops returning the two earth excavators and other equipment seized from Chinese workers in the region last month.

"The Tuting incident has been resolved. A border personnel meeting (BPM) was held two days ago," said Army chief General Bipin Rawat
on Monday. As for Doklam near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction+ , where the rival troops were locked in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation for 73 days before finally disengaging on August 28, Gen Rawat said there was a major reduction in the number of soldiers on the Chinese side.

The BPM in Arunachal Pradesh, with brigade commanders from the two sides leading the talks, was held on January 6. It was in late-December that Chinese road-construction personnel had intruded almost a kilometer into Indian territory near the Bishing village in the Upper Siang district of the state but were forced to retreat after being stopped by Indian troops, who seized their two excavators and other equipment on December 28, as was reported earlier by TOI.

Unlike the belligerence shown during the Doklam standoff, the Chinese troops this time "reacted very maturely to accept that the differing perception of the LAC" had led its construction workers "to inadvertently transgress" into Indian territory near the Bishing village. "They assured us they will take care to ensure their construction personnel do not cross over into our side again," said an officer.

But road alignment and construction bids as well as troop transgressions across the 4,057-km LAC, which stretches from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, are highly unusual in winter months. It is an indication of the heightened tensions between the two armies after the Doklam stand-off, which saw both armies move additional infantry battalions, tanks, artillery and missile units forward towards the LAC.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 09 Jan 2018 11:48

nam wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:
A country of traders & baniyas can't get into AI/Automation unless we first learn to manufacture vast variety of products. Not a single machine worth mentioning is being made in India. Almost 95% of all machinery used by Indian industry is imported and a large portion of it from China.

Now China being ahead in Mfg sector, already has skilled labor, large pool of engineering & assembly skill readily available, they will dominate AI/Automation as well. There is no shortcut to this. In India, we first need to nurture manufacturing sector, let assembly lines spring up across the country, let our factories make atleast daily use items, then 15-20 years down the line, we can be in a position where Automation can be harnessed. Right now Automation for Indian industry is like asking the neanderthals to build factories.


I have this habit of checking what was the state of Chinis 10 years before. During 2006-07, Chinis were around 2.3-2.4 trillion GDP.

They were already know as the world's factory by this time and their GDP was equal to what we have now.

The strange thing is our manufacturing is nowhere near worthwhile, yet we are 2.3 trillion!

So either we have missed the bus completely or we have a huge opportunity in front of us.

AI/Automation will be applied to producing goods which require precision( hence time consuming) to reduce the production time. It is not going to be applied to making stuff like toys or house appliance. Chinis export tremendous amount of these low value stuff.

We need to grab it.


My money is on the 'missed the bus' part. To get to what the Chinese have done, you need safeguards to protect & nurture the local manufacturing sector and heavy investments from outside for outsourcing of manufacturing. Both are not going to happen like they did in China's case. Things look bleak for India's manufacturing sector going forward & India's so called strength - IT services is already being chipped at by Philippines/Indonesia and is anyway under the law of diminishing returns. I only get pessimistic looking at the future. :(

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 09 Jan 2018 15:13

Chandragupta wrote:
chola wrote:

Look, it is the same in the US or UK. Though now, you can see more and more “Made in Vietnam” or “Bangladesh” in Walmart.

Why?

If you check on any one of the chini firms mentioned in the quora article (a good one btw) and do a little research you will find that it is probably a private, provincial or even village level company that at some early point in its history had ties or investment from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, SoKorean or Japanese companies.

That is how Cheen got itself plugged into the global supply chain. It all started with Japan and as its wages increased those lower tech products were passed on to the Four Tigers who then passed on to the PRC as their wages increased in turn.

Now they are being passed on to Vietnam and Bangladesh from the PRC. Though Cheen as a still poor nation (compared to the Tigers) still clings on to much of the lower tech items like toys and toiletpaper even as they are making market share in the high tech ones (smartphones, telecom gear, commercial drones.)

But make no mistake, the next wave of nations in the global supply chain is coming up. If we make an effort to we can replace the chini imports of everyday white goods from Vietnam and others.

But obviously the best solution is to get OURSELVES into the global supply chain. Get in before the AI/Automation revolution anyways.


A country of traders & baniyas can't get into AI/Automation unless we first learn to manufacture vast variety of products. Not a single machine worth mentioning is being made in India. Almost 95% of all machinery used by Indian industry is imported and a large portion of it from China.

Now China being ahead in Mfg sector, already has skilled labor, large pool of engineering & assembly skill readily available, they will dominate AI/Automation as well. There is no shortcut to this. In India, we first need to nurture manufacturing sector, let assembly lines spring up across the country, let our factories make atleast daily use items, then 15-20 years down the line, we can be in a position where Automation can be harnessed. Right now Automation for Indian industry is like asking the neanderthals to build factories.


Chandra ji. Do you know that all of the machinery that the PRC had during the first two decades of its run to the top of the manufacturing heap were all imported from Japan and Korea with investment money from Taiwan and Hong Kong?

This is how a nation starts off in the global supply chain. Now Cheen as it matures is passing off the same class of machinery that it once imported from Japan and Korea. We just need to beat Vietnam and Bangladesh because these industries and jobs are leaving China as we speak as Cheen moves up to the next rung.

We just need to get our policies straight. We have no choice and need to do this soon because once automation becomes the norm then moving up the next rung of development and the jobs that come with it will be very hard. Robots making things will eliminate the natural price advantage that allowed production lines to move to developing nations with poorer wages.

That demographic advantage of a huge youthful population can become an albatross around our collective neck if we can’t generate jobs.

But that population is also our trump card over the Vietnams and Bangladeshes. We have a billion plus market that we can leverage. We just need the right policies and that includes taking advantage of Cheen machinery and money just like the PRC took advantage of Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean machinery and money.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 09 Jan 2018 16:03

chola wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:
A country of traders & baniyas can't get into AI/Automation unless we first learn to manufacture vast variety of products. Not a single machine worth mentioning is being made in India. Almost 95% of all machinery used by Indian industry is imported and a large portion of it from China.

Now China being ahead in Mfg sector, already has skilled labor, large pool of engineering & assembly skill readily available, they will dominate AI/Automation as well. There is no shortcut to this. In India, we first need to nurture manufacturing sector, let assembly lines spring up across the country, let our factories make atleast daily use items, then 15-20 years down the line, we can be in a position where Automation can be harnessed. Right now Automation for Indian industry is like asking the neanderthals to build factories.


Chandra ji. Do you know that all of the machinery that the PRC had during the first two decades of its run to the top of the manufacturing heap were all imported from Japan and Korea with investment money from Taiwan and Hong Kong?

This is how a nation starts off in the global supply chain. Now Cheen as it matures is passing off the same class of machinery that it once imported from Japan and Korea. We just need to beat Vietnam and Bangladesh because these industries and jobs are leaving China as we speak as Cheen moves up to the next rung.

We just need to get our policies straight. We have no choice and need to do this soon because once automation becomes the norm then moving up the next rung of development and the jobs that come with it will be very hard. Robots making things will eliminate the natural price advantage that allowed production lines to move to developing nations with poorer wages.

That demographic advantage of a huge youthful population can become an albatross around our collective neck if we can’t generate jobs.

But that population is also our trump card over the Vietnams and Bangladeshes. We have a billion plus market that we can leverage. We just need the right policies and that includes taking advantage of Cheen machinery and money just like the PRC took advantage of Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean machinery and money.


Chola ji, you're right about the machinery part but that was a different time and age. Having seen the Chinese manufacturing behemoth, I just don't see it happening on a similar scale or even 1/10th of that scale in India. Sounds pessimistic I know but that's what I feel.

I also think we are overestimating the loss of jobs from China to Vietnam/BD. I think it is a very small stream and mostly very low tech manual work. For most other products, Cheen will simply cut costs by automating most work or shifting it to captive units in Africa.

The time it would take for Indian manufacturing sector to gear up and get in shape, I believe automation would have already 'arrived'. Just don't see it happening with the way things are moving.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 09 Jan 2018 16:51

Chandragupta wrote:
chola wrote:
Chandra ji. Do you know that all of the machinery that the PRC had during the first two decades of its run to the top of the manufacturing heap were all imported from Japan and Korea with investment money from Taiwan and Hong Kong?

This is how a nation starts off in the global supply chain. Now Cheen as it matures is passing off the same class of machinery that it once imported from Japan and Korea. We just need to beat Vietnam and Bangladesh because these industries and jobs are leaving China as we speak as Cheen moves up to the next rung.

We just need to get our policies straight. We have no choice and need to do this soon because once automation becomes the norm then moving up the next rung of development and the jobs that come with it will be very hard. Robots making things will eliminate the natural price advantage that allowed production lines to move to developing nations with poorer wages.

That demographic advantage of a huge youthful population can become an albatross around our collective neck if we can’t generate jobs.

But that population is also our trump card over the Vietnams and Bangladeshes. We have a billion plus market that we can leverage. We just need the right policies and that includes taking advantage of Cheen machinery and money just like the PRC took advantage of Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean machinery and money.


Chola ji, you're right about the machinery part but that was a different time and age. Having seen the Chinese manufacturing behemoth, I just don't see it happening on a similar scale or even 1/10th of that scale in India. Sounds pessimistic I know but that's what I feel.

I also think we are overestimating the loss of jobs from China to Vietnam/BD. I think it is a very small stream and mostly very low tech manual work. For most other products, Cheen will simply cut costs by automating most work or shifting it to captive units in Africa.

The time it would take for Indian manufacturing sector to gear up and get in shape, I believe automation would have already 'arrived'. Just don't see it happening with the way things are moving.



Chandra ji, I understand where you are coming from. But we do not need to replicate Cheen’s scale. As you correctly stated, the PRC’s path was made during another time and age. But we do need to get our share of whatever is available in the global supply chain. We need a basket of job creating sources, including manufacturing but also services and agriculture.

We should hit the export market as much as we can but we also have a massive home market that will be our ace in hand.

Please read this Financial Tribune article, a very realistic and insightful piece that acknowleges those very concerns of yours and points out why things will turn out fine:
https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/79260/india-will-outgrow-china-in-2018
I ndia is now the world’s fastest-growing large economy, and probably will be for years if not decades to come. The IMF forecasts growth of 7.4% for India in 2018, with international banks returning a range of predictions running from a low of 7.0% (Standard Chartered and HSBC) to a high of 7.5% (Nomura and HSBC). China’s maturing economy is unlikely ever again to match such stellar growth numbers.

But is 7% enough? And can India keep the pace? Even at a headline growth rate of 7% or more, India’s real per capita GDP growth will hover around 6% per year, due to high population growth that will soon make India the world’s most populous country -- if it is not already. At that rate, India will only reach China’s 2017 GDP per capita in 25 years. That’s a long time to wait, Salvatore Babones wrote for Forbes.

Many Indians are impatient for faster growth, including the governing Bharatiya Janata Party. Prime Minster Narendra Modi swept into office in 2014 amid chants of “better days ahead,” and in many ways he has delivered. His government brought inflation down from 8% to 3% without causing a recession or even sacrificing on growth. That must count as a major achievement.

...

The Modi government has been less successful in promoting exports -- though here India is sailing into strong global headwinds. International trade has been flat or declining ever since the global financial crisis of 2008-2010. Expressed as a percent of GDP, India’s exports actually caught up to China’s soon after the crisis. Or perhaps it would be more accurate to say “caught down,” since the convergence was more due to a fall in China’s exports than a rise in India’s.

The real long-term challenge for India is not the size of its exports, but the structure of its exports. After its historic opening in 1979, China followed Japan and the East Asian tiger economies in a flying geese pattern of economic development. Investment flowed in from Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore. With that investment came business acumen and technical know-how. To this day, foreign investment in China is dominated by its richer Asian neighbors and has gone mainly into manufacturing.

...

In contrast to China, India has the bad luck to be surrounded by poorer countries, not richer ones, and to look across the Indian Ocean to Antarctica, not across the Pacific Ocean to California. As a result, foreign investment in India has gone into a hodge-podge of service industries and construction. Unlike China, India is not integrated into regional value chains manufacturing high-technology, high-value consumer goods for the global market. That leaves it without a production ladder to climb.
...
What India’s government can do is look for the next generation of global value chains and work hard to see that India gets in on the ground floor. For example, India is already the world’s fourth-largest market for mobile apps. But where are India’s Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent?

With its open internet, software leadership, and entrepreneurial culture, India clearly has the potential to do for the app economy what China has done for consumer electronics: get in at the bottom and work its way up. India already has the technical capacity, and geography should be no barrier. Indian analysts are already talking about the transformative economic potential of the app economy, but the government’s digital India initiative has yet to pay major dividends.

Beyond the app economy, it is difficult to see how India could break into -- let alone climb -- the kinds of major global value chains that could bring truly transformative economic growth. Geography is not on India’s side. But openness and democracy are. The best India can do is play to these strengths -- and be patient.

The world may never again see economies growing at sustained rates of 10% per year, but even at 7% life will be much better for India’s children and grandchildren than it is today.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 09 Jan 2018 17:29

China says Gwadar naval base report is speculation - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

For China, everything is 'speculation' until suddenly it becomes a 'fait-accompli'.

China on Tuesday counselled the “outside world” not to speculate on Beijing’s reported intent to open a naval base in Gwadar, the starting point of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

“I am not aware of what you mentioned,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said, when asked to comment on reports that China would establish a naval base in Gwadar, to supplement its already existing Indian Ocean facility at Djibouti.

“As you know the building of CPEC is an important part of the Belt and Road initiative, and China and Pakistan are also making efforts to build the CPEC, which is in the common interest of the countries along the route,” Mr. Lu observed.

He added: “So, I don’t think it is necessary for the outside world to make too much guesses in this regard.”

‘No Pakistan-China discussion’

In Pakistan, the daily, Pakistan Today said that Beijing and Islamabad had no plans to build a Chinese naval base in coastal areas of Pakistan, and the matter had never been discussed between the two countries {So, the two thieves are coordinating their articulation}.

Pakistan Today quoted a senior official at the Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs as saying that neither the Chinese government had made any such request (of building a naval base) to the government of Pakistan nor was there any plan being discussed between the two governments.

“It looks that such rumours are being spread just to sabotage the successful completion of early harvest projects under the game-changing CPEC. But, Islamabad and Beijing are well aware of the enemy designs, and we will not let anyone sabotage the project’s success,” {For the liars that are the Pakistanis, they strenuously denied making a nuclear bomb during Zia's & Benazir's days in spite of mounting and open evidence!} the official was quoted as saying.

The official mentioned that the security of the Chinese nationals working on the CPEC projects, as well as the Chinese shipments going into the Arabian Sea, would solely be a responsibility of Pakistani law enforcing agencies, and, for the same purpose, a designated division — Strategic Security Division — had been raised.

“Pakistan Navy is well-equipped to handle the security of Chinese shipments, and we will manage the security of the shipments effectively,” the source said, adding that this was the reason that the capacity-building process of Pakistan Navy was being given a priority.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ricky_v » 10 Jan 2018 09:30

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/has-xi-fully-consolidated-his-power-over-the-military/
On December 27, 2017, the CCP Central Committee announced that the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force (PAP), which had been overseen by both the State Council and the CMC since 1982, would be put under the command of the CMC alone from January 1, 2018.

The PAP is currently responsible for domestic stability, civilian policing, border defense, fire rescue, and supporting the military during wartime. From 1966 to 1982 — during the period of China’s Cultural Revolution launched by Mao Zedong — the original PAP was solely controlled by the then-CMC. In 1982 — after Deng Xiaoping issued the “opening up and reform” policy — the Chinese authorities decided to reshuffle the military and transfer part of the power of controlling the paramilitary functions to the government. That was how the current PAP was formally established.
However, the PAP gradually became local governments’ major tool to maintain local stability against unarmed civilians. Some local high officials even deployed the PAP for their personal purposes. One of the most famous — or infamous — examples was during 2012, when Bo Xilai, then-top leader of Chongqing, demanded that his local PAP, along with the police, surround the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in order to arrest then-police chief Wang Lijun. This sensational episode also pulled back the curtain on the impending downfall of Bo himself — one of the most appalling scandals in modern China’s political history.

It has been a tradition for top military officials to also take senior positions in provincial standing committees — the highest decision-making body at the provincial level. However, since Xi launched sweeping military reforms, those positions that used to be saved for military officials had remained unfilled for a whole year, from 2016 to 2017.

Most of these empty positions — in more than 16 provinces across the country — have been suddenly filled in recent weeks, according to the Beijing Daily (Xinjing Bao). Notably, almost all of these military high officials are new to the provincial governments, further indicating that Xi’s reshuffle of the military has been put in place.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jan 2018 11:12

ricky_v wrote:https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/has-xi-fully-consolidated-his-power-over-the-military/
On December 27, 2017, the CCP Central Committee announced that the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force (PAP), which had been overseen by both the State Council and the CMC since 1982, would be put under the command of the CMC alone from January 1, 2018.

Xi has achieved two things with this.

One, chipping away at Premier Li Keqiang's powers even more. Xi has already made Li almost powerless by snatching away all his decision-making powers through various administrative committees that he himself leads now. Let's remember that Li is a Hu Jintao protege.

Two, Xi has decided and articulated at the 19th Congress recently that the Party would once again dominate every sphere going forward. As Xi throws back to Mao's days in order to ram through his 'China Dreams', he requires all opposition to be smothered. The PAP would be the instrument for that. Having consolidated his position over the armed forces, he has turned his attention to the domestic scenario through this action.

Most of these empty positions — in more than 16 provinces across the country — have been suddenly filled in recent weeks. . .

Probably, Xi needed time to identify pliant and loyal military officers in order to fill up these positions. His new anti-corruption czar had to settle down too.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jan 2018 11:23

How Chinese road construction activity in Arunachal Pradesh was detected - Prabin Kalital, ToI
GUWAHATI: The Bishing village in Arunachal Pradesh's Tuting area in Upper Siang district, the point closest to where the Chinese road construction machines rolled, almost 1.25 km inside the imaginary Line of Actual Control or the McMohan Line, is the symbol of India's yet-to-be-connected places.

The road that was built runs alongside the eastern bank of the blackened Siang river that flows from Tibet as Yarlung Tsangpo.

While the neighbours have driven right through the international border, Bishing does not have a motorable road. It was a local youth John, a porter who carries supplies to ITBP posts, who first saw the Chinese excavators at work last month while on a routine trek. He alerted the ITBP, which who in turn got the Army there.

"We are bound by policies. The PMGSY norms say that a village needs to have at least 100 people to have a government-built road. Bishing's population is just 54 comprising 16 households and that is why there is no road," additional deputy commissioner in-charge of Tuting circle, K Apang told TOI.

The point to which the Chinese excavators reached is at the highest point in the area, at about 4000ft. It is about an eight to 10 days walk from the Bishing village. Villagers have to walk almost 4km and then cross the Siang by a bridge to reach Geling, another 4km away, which is the last point with a motorable road.

"The area where the Chinese came is almost inaccessible and no one except the village hunters venture out there. It is a steep climb. Till this episode came to light we all thought that this area is no man's land as there is no river or stream to demarcate the international boundary. Only recently when we saw google maps, we realized that this is our land," Apang said. He added that the Chinese had already constructed 1250 metre (1.25km) of road inside Indian territory.

"It's all normal now. The Chinese and Indian Army people shook hands at the place and they have left along with the two excavators, which have been repaired. We do not know what their motive was. The Army is now here, deployed along with the ITBP men," he added.

But a defence source said that the Chinese might have opened a second frontier after Doklam. "The Chinese road building move happened soon after the end of the Army's month-long annual EWT (early warning test) along the border. Because of the standoff at Doklam, this time the EWT deployment was larger and but the month's time ended all the additional soldiers were withdrawn and that is when this road building happened," the source said.

The EWT is an exercise when the soldiers and commanders from every location move to their operational areas, which is different for every Army formation, and remain there for a month before returning to their bases.

The point of incursion also faces the Nyingchi prefecture in China where the Chinese PLA's Tibet Military Command held live-fire exercise during the Doklam standoff.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prem » 11 Jan 2018 02:47

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/china-i ... or-threat/
China Is Starting to See India as a Major Threat

As the new year gets underway, and Chinese foreign policy analysts join their counterparts around the world in assessing the events of 2017, the emerging international relations (IR) discourse in Beijing is quite a revelation — at least to the Japanese and Indian strategic affairs community.
While most Chinese believe Japan to be the second biggest threat to China’s “peaceful rise,” according to a few Chinese experts, the rising global profile of India, especially under the “right-wing” nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has gone unacknowledged.In February 2015, The Diplomat carried an article by a Chinese scholar titled “Why China Doesn’t See India as a Threat.” In April 2017, Sanjeev Nayyar, an independent columnist, wrote: “One thing China must understand is that the Indian government is not obsessed with being a threat to China but only wants a rightful place for India in the world.” And in the fall of 2017, China’s semi-official, hyper-nationalist Global Times dismissed with disdain any talk of India worrying China in an article titled “India-Japan intimacy poses no real threat to China.” The article was written in response to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s India visit in September.The Global Times also – it now seems ignorantly – wrote off India’s successful test of its long-range ballistic missile Agni-IV a year ago, commenting: “China should realize that Beijing wouldn’t hold back India’s development of Agni-IV. However, Chinese people don’t think India’s development has posed any big threat to it.”As the year 2017 was drawing to a close, however, Yin Guoming, a Chinese foreign affairs analyst, argued that India, and not Japan, is now the second biggest threat to China after the United States. Here’s an excerpt:

China-India standoff has compelled us to regard India as a serious rival. During the Dong Lang [or Doklam] confrontation, it became very clear to everyone – from ordinary Chinese to foreign policy experts – China must reckon India to be its second biggest rival. And that China needs to re-assess, re-examine, and reformulate its India strategy.However, more significantly, the article pointed out that most people in China were not yet ready to recognize the Indian threat.China’s strategic affairs community has been arguing for some time now that, viewed geopolitically, Sino-Indian relations are the second most important bilateral ties for Beijing following the Sino-U.S. relationship. Most Chinese came in for a rude shock in the summer of 2017, when the Indian army openly crossed into Doklam border region and for weeks refused to withdraw. Writing in an influential, widely read online patriotic portal based in China’s Hainan province and popular among rich, educated urban Chinese, Li Yang, a current affairs commentator wrote in July – midway through the Doklam confrontation – “The biggest mistake we have made in the past two decades has been to underestimate India and ignore India. During these years of India’s rapid progress, we did not trouble India, did not make India stumble or make India shed tears.”
Earlier, in May 2017, India announced – just a day in advance – that it would not be present at the inauguration of China’s first mega-diplomatic event of the year, the Belt and Road Forum, citing sovereignty concerns. The Chinese, though angered by India’s last minute boycott, chose to officially remain silent. A section of China’s foreign affairs commentators did indeed hint it was a mild setback to their diplomacy.


By comparison, the Doklam faceoff, which cropped up within a few weeks of Belt and Road Forum, was a “game changer.” It went well beyond the Chinese imagination. Interestingly, as the days passed, India’s refusal to withdraw its troops as well as its dismissive attitude toward engaging with the Chinese on the issue, simply left the Chinese puzzled and clueless as to the Indian game plan. Not surprisingly, Shen Dingli, an eminent and influential Chinese international relations scholar at Fudan University, counted the Doklam crisis as among China’s top five diplomatic failures under the so-called “Xi-style Diplomacy.”Current trends in Chinese discourse on the potential India threat, if acknowledged and accepted at the official level by the central authorities in Beijing, would mean further intensification of China and India viewing each other as a hostile “enemy” in the future. The following arguments have been offered by some Chinese scholars as to why India, and not Japan, will pose a bigger threat and challenge for China in the coming years.In the context of geopolitics, China believes it enjoys a greater advantage over Japan. Japan is a maritime nation and maritime trade and transportation forms Japan’s economic as well as survival lifeline. Geographically too, Japan’s location makes its energy supply route from the Middle East longer than China’s. Both logistically and economically, the South China Sea route is the shortest path. Once China establishes its full hegemony in the South China Sea (and also regains control over Taiwan, which has long been Beijing’s dream), China would naturally be able to easily place a stranglehold on Japan by dominating maritime trade routes – crucial for Japan’s existence.
In contrast, China’s own crucial maritime energy supply route passes through the Indian Ocean, which falls within the Indian military threat zone. During the Doklam confrontation, the Chinese took due notice of Indian analysts making statements that in the event of a India-China military clash, India would cut off China’s maritime access to the Indian Ocean.
Of course, it is true many Chinese dismiss the Indian threat as nothing but a joke. But that is more because India has not yet fully realized its potential, not because India is not capable of becoming a future threat to China.

Some analysts in China have also expressed their frustration over India’s “unchecked” rapid economic progress during the past two decades. These experts and scholars are rather candid in admitting China had failed to anticipate the “revolutionary” transformation Narendra Modi has brought about in the Indian national psyche. True, it is not a revelation to the Chinese that India has always viewed China is its “imaginary enemy.” Moreover, it is not hidden from the Chinese either that the Indian defeat during the 1962 boundary war has since remained the single most crucial factor in determining India’s national defense strategy. Yet, it is only now and under Modi, as India’s stature in global politics has risen, that China has suddenly realized that — unlike Japan — India is a nuclear weapon state. Finally, thanks to the Modi government’s uncharitable stance, it has dawned upon China’s strategic affairs community that Beijing’s Belt and Road strategy is bound to produce more and more structural contradictions between the two neighbors, already rapidly becoming hostile.No wonder, if the media reports from Beijing are true, that the Peoples Republic of China for the first time keenly awaited the outcome of this year’s assembly elections in India. Following the Gujarat elections, the mandarins watching India in the Chinese foreign affairs ministry, it is believed, have predicted in their dossier that Modi will enjoy a second term as the prime minister in 2019.Going by the current Chinese discourse, Beijing is certainly not going to just sit and watch and let India become a threat. The question that looms large, then, is what China is going to do about it.

SSharma
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSharma » 11 Jan 2018 10:48

The Chinese now have 2 foreign naval bases, 1 in Ethiopia and another at gwadar, pakiland

I dunno how India can threaten/counter them

Singha
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2018 11:14

we need to sign reciprocal replenishment and port visit arrangements with philippines, indonesia, taiwan and vietnam and always keep a presence in the SCS like USN does on a rotating basis to "fight piracy" and "secure commerce lines". Andaman would be our major base like pearl harbour and needs much further development.

the PLAN is now a permanent rotating presence off the horn of africa and near mouth of persian gulf to "fight piracy"

we need a large fleet of long range OPVs like Saryu to do this cheaper and crawl into every crack in woodwork

they are already doing this by building ER OPVs on 054FFG hulls. with less weapons and more fuel these would surely have long endurance and tropicalized systems for IOR use.

fleet oilers and large cheap OPVs can get this done without much of forward basing also. to needle them more these OPVs can also escort hydrographic survey ships with "scientists" who study "global warming impact on fish" off the coast near hainan.

Pulikeshi
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 11 Jan 2018 11:18

SSharma wrote:The Chinese now have 2 foreign naval bases, 1 in Ethiopia and another at gwadar, pakiland

I dunno how India can threaten/counter them


Because the Indian peninsula is a giant "air craft carrier" jutting into the IOR :mrgreen:

VKumar
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby VKumar » 11 Jan 2018 11:59

We have two too. Mauritius and Seychelles. Indiandefence.com


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