Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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ldev
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

All of this is contrived by the Communist Party to ensure that China does in fact become the Middle Kingdom, the foremost power on earth, something they believe is fore ordained. The CCP has never been shy about taking on huge gambles which put the lives and livelihood of the Chinese people and the country itself on the line in pursuit of their primary goal. And you can go back and look at everything from the Great Leap Forward to the Cultural Revolution when 20 million or more Chinese died of starvation.

Translated into today's economics, the creation of gigantic asset bubbles such as the $64 trillion real estate market are only the means towards that same end. This creation of credit which enables economic activity, economic speculation but also provides funds and liquidity for the PLA. By comparison the total US real estate sector is valued at about $ 34 trillion. And US Federal Government debt i.e. all outstanding US Treasury bills and bonds are about $28-30 trillion. That is why I said that the Chinese real estate market is the largest asset class in the world. It is equal to the combined valuation of the US real estate and UST market.

If today was not today but was the mid 1960s and the impact of the CCP gambling was confined to their own country the rest of the world would not care. But given China's oversized role in today's global economy and security architecture, the rest of the world has to prepare for the fallout of China's ambitions.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by AdityaM »

The Chinese with access to their empires vast technical prowess and with visions of world dominance, could as a concept have done the below:

•anyone who uses Chinese apps or Chinese phones in theory would be GPS locatable at any time as long as there is a phone signal
• for known geo coordinates of Indian army bases, they would try to geo locate phones whose presence is active within the base's coordinates. A base would have a density of phones, & hence easier to pick.
• Any mass movements of troops would create a common GPS footprint which algos will find easy to track. If troops move in bulk from bases to forward areas, their surprise movement throughout the route can be GPS tracked and forewarning generated before satellite surveillance even gets a chance.
• Voice and biometric samples of marked military leaders would already be collected. Which means AI driven systems can determine a profile around such a person

Wonder what all of this has already been achieved.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ManSingh »

There is Chinese high tech to contend with as well. Companies like ByteDance(TikTok), Baidu (cloud, AI chips), Huawei( including Hisilicon), WeChat are all leading edge and very competitive. While these companies may have restricted access in North America, there is nothing stopping them capturing markets globally.

Also in Metals, Chinese firms with unethical government support, have captured the market replacing names like Alcoa. All these firms were at the higher end of a short run supply curve. They would not have made it without the unfair means. Similarly for the rare earth metal supplies.

By providing no access to western firms and backing their own firms the Chinese have integrated themselves in the global economy quite well.

It will be very difficult to beat them or hold them accountable going foward.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

High tech in China is the result of a monopoly and restriction of foreign firms. If twitter etc is restricted it takes not much innovation to produce a twitter with Chinese characteristics.

Turns out Chinese nuclear reactors are dependent on German technology, bullet trains on Japanese and on and on.

Here is an example of Chinese boastful swarm drone technology. This is what India will face in Ladakh.

https://youtu.be/ZWdPgO8G4nY?t=101
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Vivek K »

We would be fools to take Chinese capabilities lightly! We have similar or worse issues on our side too - corruption with decrepit buildings abounding in several cities.

It is wise not to under estimate the enemy. There are a lot of flankers and other very capable aircraft with China.India must build her forces to be capable of tackling the Chinese.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

The great thing about India is that no Indian overestimates it.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

The Chinese PoV is that the current world order is not designed with a strong China in mind, that it needs to be changed to accommodate a stronger China, and that those who potentially stand to lose in such a new world order is pushing back.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Karan M »

DavidD wrote:The Chinese PoV is that the current world order is not designed with a strong China in mind, that it needs to be changed to accommodate a stronger China, and that those who potentially stand to lose in such a new world order is pushing back.
A strong China being one which bullies all its neighbours, proliferated WMD and throws its weight around, taking zero responsibility for its acts of mass outrage like spreading COVID? Because those actions are precisely what it's been doing.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by NRao »

DavidD wrote:The Chinese PoV is that the current world order is not designed with a strong China in mind, that it needs to be changed to accommodate a stronger China, and that those who potentially stand to lose in such a new world order is pushing back.
Potentially the worst interpretation seen/read!!

"China" has been very clear that their model is the best - CCP rules over everything, that the CCP IS "China". We see it being implemented in every entity and every single person being asked to ally with the CCP.

That is the model that "China" wants across the world, with the CCP being the center of everything.

Rest is all gyrations to make this model work. "China" itself is a façade that they will live with until they achieve the goal, then even "China" will be discarded.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

This YT channel has an anti-CCP slant, but it gives some in-depth reporting on China.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCT2kPB ... TP_aV7BmgA

Of particular interest to me were the reports of factional infighting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHvjoRJ9_1o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns021Kh-lyA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zK5P3kiTkA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqQc8epGcA4

Here are a couple of organizational charts to help put names to faces:

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws. ... 15jSpd4_z_

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws. ... IjGhUnkKhv
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

Anoop wrote:Of particular interest to me were the reports of factional infighting:
Really good, thanks Anoop.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

A good summary of the current situation in China by Palki Sharma
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

Karan M wrote:
DavidD wrote:The Chinese PoV is that the current world order is not designed with a strong China in mind, that it needs to be changed to accommodate a stronger China, and that those who potentially stand to lose in such a new world order is pushing back.
A strong China being one which bullies all its neighbours, proliferated WMD and throws its weight around, taking zero responsibility for its acts of mass outrage like spreading COVID? Because those actions are precisely what it's been doing.
Yeah that's pretty much it. I don't think humans have evolved past the strong preying on the weak, we've just gotten better at sugarcoating it.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by sudarshan »

Thanks for the honesty, DavidD (I'm serious). Indians who are shocked by the above are just being naive. This is truly how China thinks, so don't be fooled by their music or art or air of culture and sophistication into thinking that one can expect fair-play in any dealings with China. Their society has not evolved beyond the above notion, regardless of how many individual Chinese may have. When dealing with the Chinese govt. (of course, one can't make it a general principle in dealing with individuals) it is okay to backstab and go back on your word and all that, just do it before they do it to you, they'll even respect you for it.

Of course, the above becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because of those who truly believe in living their lives that way, which means even those of us who want to evolve beyond that, can't! Because we'll get wiped out if we do. What to do onlee.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

Shivshankar Menon and Andrew Small discuss China:
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by disha »

Cheencans showed off a video of their cheeni cans firing in high plateau of tibet.

Couple of observations:

1. They seem to be low on strategy and high on opium.
2. What will they attack? Few scattered well-disguised posts without any air cover?
3. They cannot fire while on move. They have to stop, range their target and fire. That's time consuming. How will they protect themselves from anti-tank guided missiles?
4. Their supply lines were wide open. They showed cheencans carrying shells to the tank. To supply it. Looks great optics. Low on strategy.

Mods, Can we discuss here military strategies to defeat or give a bloody nose to cheencans?

I can think of several ways, not just Hotan but Chengdu can be brought under severe fire.

We can do something like Red vs Blue exercise using what we have in public information. And what can be made available in next 6-12 months.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote: . . . can you name a major economy that's doing better than China's currently?
Image
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote:Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
I am not saying there should be a revolt. The word 'revolt' is your choice, not mine. All I said was that there might be 'questions' asked of Xi.
And I have given reasons why so in my post
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by nandakumar »

DavidD wrote:Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
Yes, it is 16.7% growth over a 3 year period as you point out. But that is without making adjustments for 'Shanghai Statistics'- a phenomenon acknowledged by the ChinesePremier himself. If you say the discount factor is 'zero' then nothing more need be said. But one data point. Whether it is WHO or some other multilateral institution China is not unknown for co-opting the executive structure to present a narrative that is acceptable to it. Since we are on IMF growth projection, the present Chief of IMF before her current appointment was a senior staffer at the World Bank. Last month she was accused of pressuring the staff producing the 'Ease of Doing Business' index of the World Bank to tweak it to improve Chinas's ranking. It led to the World Bank resolving to suspend the publication of the index till the processes are 'refined'- an euphemistic way of saying, 'till we put safeguards in place so that no country manipulates it. But as to whether that growth rate (16.7%) is good enough or not good enough to stave off a popular revolt is anybody's guess. Heck, the Chinese staved off revolt in the 50s and the mid 60s with even degrowth.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning

Absolutely fascinating article about a little known man from China, Wang Huning, but who according to this article is the foremost ideologue in the CCP and has been accepted by 3 CCP General Secretaries, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and now Xi Jinping. This article states that the current crackdowns in China on everything from the rich oligarchs to effeminate men to home tuition classes to restrictions on online gaming is the handiwork of this man. Because he believes that China continuing down this path will lead to US style nihilism in it's society. This looks like yet another Cultural Revolution, although nobody yet uses that phrase to describe current happenings in China.

Some enlightening excerpts:
But why is this “profound transformation” happening? And why now? Most analysis has focused on one man: Xi and his seemingly endless personal obsession with political control. The overlooked answer, however, is that this is indeed the culmination of decades of thinking and planning by a very powerful man—but that man is not Xi Jinping.
Yet Wang Huning is arguably the single most influential “public intellectual” alive today.

A member of the CCP’s seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, he is China’s top ideological theorist, quietly credited as being the “ideas man” behind each of Xi’s signature political concepts, including the “China Dream,” the anti-corruption campaign, the Belt and Road Initiative, a more assertive foreign policy, and even “Xi Jinping Thought.” Scrutinize any photograph of Xi on an important trip or at a key meeting and one is likely to spot Wang there in the background, never far from the leader’s side.
Also in 1988, Wang—having risen with unprecedented speed to become Fudan’s youngest full professor at age 30—won a coveted scholarship (facilitated by the American Political Science Association) to spend six months in the United States as a visiting scholar. Profoundly curious about America, Wang took full advantage, wandering about the country like a sort of latter-day Chinese Alexis de Tocqueville, visiting more than 30 cities and nearly 20 universities.

What he found deeply disturbed him, permanently shifting his view of the West and the consequences of its ideas.

Wang recorded his observations in a memoir that would become his most famous work: the 1991 book America Against America. In it, he marvels at homeless encampments in the streets of Washington DC, out-of-control drug crime in poor black neighborhoods in New York and San Francisco, and corporations that seemed to have fused themselves to and taken over responsibilities of government. Eventually, he concludes that America faces an “unstoppable undercurrent of crisis” produced by its societal contradictions, including between rich and poor, white and black, democratic and oligarchic power, egalitarianism and class privilege, individual rights and collective responsibilities, cultural traditions and the solvent of liquid modernity.

In the end, “the American economic system has created human loneliness” as its foremost product, along with spectacular inequality. As a result, “nihilism has become the American way, which is a fatal shock to cultural development and the American spirit.”
Once idealistic about America, at the start of 1989 the young Wang returned to China and, promoted to Dean of Fudan’s International Politics Department, became a leading opponent of liberalization.

He began to argue that China had to resist global liberal influence and become a culturally unified and self-confident nation governed by a strong, centralized party-state. He would develop these ideas into what has become known as China’s “Neo-Authoritarian” movement—though Wang never used the term, identifying himself with China’s “Neo-Conservatives.” This reflected his desire to blend Marxist socialism with traditional Chinese Confucian values and Legalist political thought, maximalist Western ideas of state sovereignty and power, and nationalism in order to synthesize a new basis for long-term stability and growth immune to Western liberalism.
But Wang is unlikely to be savoring the acclaim, because his worst fear has become reality: the “unstoppable undercurrent of crisis” he identified in America seems to have successfully jumped the Pacific. Despite all his and Xi’s success in draconian suppression of political liberalism, many of the same problems Wang observed in America have nonetheless emerged to ravage China over the last decade as the country progressively embraced a more neoliberal capitalist economic model.

“Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” has rapidly transformed China into one of the most economically unequal societies on earth. It now boasts a Gini Coefficient of, officially, around 0.47, worse than the U.S.’s 0.41. The wealthiest 1% of the population now holds around 31% of the country’s wealth (not far behind the 35% in the U.S.). But most people in China remain relatively poor: some 600 million still subsist on a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan ($155) a month.

Meanwhile, Chinese tech giants have established monopoly positions even more robust than their U.S. counterparts, often with market shares nearing 90%. Corporate employment frequently features an exhausting “996” (9am to 9pm, 6 days a week) schedule. Others labor among struggling legions trapped by up-front debts in the vast system of modern-day indentured servitude that is the Chinese “gig economy.” Up to 400 million Chinese are forecast to enjoy the liberation of such “self-employment” by 2036, according to Alibaba.
It is in this context that Wang Huning appears to have won a long-running debate within the Chinese system about what’s now required for the People’s Republic of China to endure. The era of tolerance for unfettered economic and cultural liberalism in China is over.

According to a leaked account by one of his old friends, Xi has found himself, like Wang, “repulsed by the all-encompassing commercialization of Chinese society, with its attendant nouveaux riches, official corruption, loss of values, dignity, and self-respect, and such ‘moral evils’ as drugs and prostitution.” Wang has now seemingly convinced Xi that they have no choice but to take drastic action to head off existential threats to social order being generated by Western-style economic and cultural liberal-capitalism—threats nearly identical to those that scourge the U.S.

This intervention has taken the form of the Common Prosperity campaign, with Xi declaring in January that “We absolutely must not allow the gap between rich and poor to get wider,” and warning that “achieving common prosperity is not only an economic issue, but also a major political issue related to the party’s governing foundations.”

This is why anti-monopoly investigations have hit China’s top technology firms with billions of dollars in fines and forced restructurings and strict new data rules have curtailed China’s internet and social media companies. It’s why record-breaking IPOs have been put on hold and corporations ordered to improve labor conditions, with “996” overtime requirements made illegal and pay raised for gig workers. It’s why the government killed off the private tutoring sector overnight and capped property rental price increases. It’s why the government has announced “excessively high incomes” are to be “adjusted.”
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Re: Chinese Economy

Post by SSridhar »

nandakumar wrote:
DavidD wrote:Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
Yes, it is 16.7% growth over a 3 year period as you point out. But that is without making adjustments for 'Shanghai Statistics'- a phenomenon acknowledged by the ChinesePremier himself.
That's so true nandakumar. The 'sweeter than the sweetest honey' friends seem to be so good at manipulating numbers. Made for each other.

Besides, I posted the chart because David asked if any major economy was currently doing better than China. QED.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

ritesh wrote:What's stopping us capturing g219 highway in its entirety? Won't it severely paralyze chipkali from bottom up?
Ritesh No country became a superpower while importing 70% of arms. So G-219 will be taken when India starts reversing that.
Also, what is the purpose of G-219?
Trade? No
Supply route for PLA troops? Yes
Why do they need the supply route? To reinforce the PLA with troops, arms, and ammo etc.
Why? To fight the Indian military.
Currently, there is no fight as the terrain and the number of the Indian military is very high and PLA will face a defeat.
IOW G 219 is neutered and the main purpose is negated.
This will change when there is a fight.

So except the Ajai Shukla/Panag fellows who put strawmen to beat up IA no one who understands cares.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ramana »

DavidD wrote:
Karan M wrote:
A strong China being one which bullies all its neighbours, proliferated WMD and throws its weight around, taking zero responsibility for its acts of mass outrage like spreading COVID? Because those actions are precisely what it's been doing.
Yeah that's pretty much it. I don't think humans have evolved past the strong preying on the weak, we've just gotten better at sugarcoating it.

DavidD, that line of thinking is reverting to the pre-Buddhist influence on China. China has absorbed and internalized Buddhist thought of good conduct to change Fate and XJP's favorite line is win-win in his interaction with the world leaders.
Matsay Nyaya or big fish eat little fish causes instability when it eats a piranha or poison fish.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

The article on Wan Huning is incorrect. XJP and his band of intellectuals want to go back to what is unique about China. They want to restore the xi which the trader class has disturbed with the disproportionate accumulation of wealth. This is a traditional problem since ancient times.
Hence Confucius put traders at the bottom of society.
So what Wan Huning is saying is not different than the HanFeizhi school of Legalism
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:The article on Wan Huning is incorrect. XJP and his band of intellectuals want to go back to what is unique about China. They want to restore the xi which the trader class has disturbed with the disproportionate accumulation of wealth. This is a traditional problem since ancient times.
Hence Confucius put traders at the bottom of society.
So what Wan Huning is saying is not different than the HanFeizhi school of Legalism
Wow!!!
Yet Wang Huning is arguably the single most influential “public intellectual” alive today.

A member of the CCP’s seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, he is China’s top ideological theorist, quietly credited as being the “ideas man” behind each of Xi’s signature political concepts, including the “China Dream,” the anti-corruption campaign, the Belt and Road Initiative, a more assertive foreign policy, and even “Xi Jinping Thought.” Scrutinize any photograph of Xi on an important trip or at a key meeting and one is likely to spot Wang there in the background, never far from the leader’s side.

Wang has thus earned comparisons to famous figures of Chinese history like Zhuge Liang and Han Fei (historians dub the latter “China’s Machiavelli”) who similarly served behind the throne as powerful strategic advisers and consiglieres—a position referred to in Chinese literature as dishi: “Emperor’s Teacher.” Such a figure is just as readily recognizable in the West as an éminence grise (“grey eminence”), in the tradition of Tremblay, Talleyrand, Metternich, Kissinger, or Vladimir Putin adviser Vladislav Surkov.
Am surprised that I zeroed in on Han Fei while reading the intro about Wan Huning!!! And few paras later Han Fei bubbles up.
I think Wan Huning is more like Han Feixi than Zhuge Liang who is strictly a war strategist of the Three Kingdoms period.
Han Fei is the founder of Legalism and was right during first Emperor Qin Shih Huangdi and found the middle way between the two earlier schools.


Wang Huning is the intellectual continuity from Deng Xiaopeng to Xi Jinping. He is going back to ancient Chinese society roots.
"He began to argue that China had to resist global liberal influence and become a culturally unified and self-confident nation governed by a strong, centralized party-state. He would develop these ideas into what has become known as China’s “Neo-Authoritarian” movement—though Wang never used the term, identifying himself with China’s “Neo-Conservatives.” This reflected his desire to blend Marxist socialism with traditional Chinese Confucian values and Legalist political thought, maximalist Western ideas of state sovereignty and power, and nationalism in order to synthesize a new basis for long-term stability and growth immune to Western liberalism."
His core is Han Fei Legalism.
And the crackdown on the traders is par for the course. Confucius society has
a four-tier society.
Emperor and nobility At capstone of the pyramid

Scholars
Farmers
Artisans
Traders

Some people add slaves.
The three layers of Farmers, Artisans, and traders have remained unchanged in the last 4000 years.
New professions of engineers, doctors have emerged but they fit in the artisans' class.

The Communists have replaced the Emperor and his court.
Wang Huning et al are trying to preserve the three tiers and modernize them.

I would like to read his doctoral thesis at Fudan.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

ramana wrote: Am surprised that I zeroed in on Han Fei while reading the intro about Wan Huning!!! And few paras later Han Fei bubbles up.
I too think Wan Huning is more like Han Fei than Zhuge Liang who is strictly a war strategist of the Three Kingdoms period.
Han Fei is the founder of Legalism and was right during first Emperor Qin Shih Huangdi and found the middle way between the two earlier schools.
:)
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

nandakumar wrote:
DavidD wrote:Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
Yes, it is 16.7% growth over a 3 year period as you point out. But that is without making adjustments for 'Shanghai Statistics'- a phenomenon acknowledged by the ChinesePremier himself. If you say the discount factor is 'zero' then nothing more need be said. But one data point. Whether it is WHO or some other multilateral institution China is not unknown for co-opting the executive structure to present a narrative that is acceptable to it. Since we are on IMF growth projection, the present Chief of IMF before her current appointment was a senior staffer at the World Bank. Last month she was accused of pressuring the staff producing the 'Ease of Doing Business' index of the World Bank to tweak it to improve Chinas's ranking. It led to the World Bank resolving to suspend the publication of the index till the processes are 'refined'- an euphemistic way of saying, 'till we put safeguards in place so that no country manipulates it. But as to whether that growth rate (16.7%) is good enough or not good enough to stave off a popular revolt is anybody's guess. Heck, the Chinese staved off revolt in the 50s and the mid 60s with even degrowth.
The Harvard professor who actually did the WB rankings has come out and said that she was not pressured one way or another. The WB is an US dominated organization and their targeting of Georgieva is politically motivated. "Safeguards" as such, is in fact a euphemism for ensuring that the WB's objectives line up with American political imperatives, rather than behaving as an independent organization.

https://www.ft.com/content/c5083dc2-286 ... d34f88e86f
The specific allegation against Georgieva is venial on its face: that she leaned against a World Bank data team to shift China’s ranking by a few positions in a World Bank index. The professional in charge of the World Bank project in 2018, Shanta Devarajan, a highly respected economist and former professor at Harvard University, denies that Georgieva put any pressure on him and his team. According to Devarajan, the Ease of Doing Business team routinely made judgment calls on many indicators, such as whether a regulation on the books was in fact in application. It was not unusual for governments to second-guess those calls and ask the bank to review the evidence.

After Georgieva left the bank for the fund, China soared in the ranking, showing that the 2018 ranking was not some outlier. With Republican David Malpass at the helm of the World Bank, China rose to 31st in 2020, and to 25th in the unreleased 2021 report, which Malpass has now cancelled. He was reportedly concerned in the past two years about China’s high and rising ranking.

The congressional charge that Georgieva violated the sanctity of the World Bank is hypocritical in view of the naked political pressures that the US Congress routinely puts on the US federal government and World Bank staff to send billions of dollars to American-backed regimes (such as $5.3bn to Afghanistan during the US occupation) while trying to block funds to cash-strapped governments closer to China and Russia.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

SSridhar wrote:
DavidD wrote:Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
I am not saying there should be a revolt. The word 'revolt' is your choice, not mine. All I said was that there might be 'questions' asked of Xi.
And I have given reasons why so in my post
OK, I'll admit then I misunderstood your post. I do agree that there will be questions for Xi, as there should be when anyone attempts reforms of this magnitude.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

An interesting report on the financial issues facing Country Garden, China's largest real estate company.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gyQWKElSMk

Summary:

1. Increasing debt to asset ratio, bumping up against the CCP's redline of 0.7. Partly fueled by massive investments that didn't pan out, like Forest City in Malaysia.

2. Business model that prioritizes acquiring cheap land in 3rd/4th tier cities and very quick construction of ready-to-occupy homes (not a standard practice in China). As property prices drop, the profitability has decreased but the company has decided to double down on increasing revenue, even as profitability has not kept pace with revenue growth.

3. Rapid pace of construction has seen collapses of and accidents at under construction buildings.

4. Intense work pressure (0/0/7 - no off days and no off hours unless work is completed) making it difficult to retain top talent. Though I feel this is not outside the norm of work culture in countries like SoKo, China and even in some companies in the US.

5. The company betting on new technology like robotic construction, that require large capital outlay further stressing cash flow, but with uncertain results.

P.S. is there a thread on China's economy? Such posts should go there, instead of here.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Nihat »

We are seeing more and more propoganda videos being deliberately leaked by ccp related accounts. I wonder why ADGPI is holding back. We all know there is plenty videos out there of us holding Chinese soldiers captive.

What kind of moral science lesson are we holding on to in trying to still keep them hidden. If anything, public humiliation is the very essence of what is needed to push China back.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Karan M »

DavidD wrote:
Karan M wrote:
A strong China being one which bullies all its neighbours, proliferated WMD and throws its weight around, taking zero responsibility for its acts of mass outrage like spreading COVID? Because those actions are precisely what it's been doing.
Yeah that's pretty much it. I don't think humans have evolved past the strong preying on the weak, we've just gotten better at sugarcoating it.
Thanks for the candour. It's refreshing. There is a fundamental disconnect between how the PRC sees relations should be, and how other countries expect them to be. Most will refuse to be subservient to the PRC and will push back.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Karan M »

DavidD wrote:Thanks for the chart, so China will have grown 16.7% over those 3 years you listed, the fastest in the world, and it's not really even close. Yet there should be a revolt within the CCP?
You've moved the goalpost. You said any economy which is doing better than China currently. India is, judging by the above numbers. Of course you can quibble over the baseline effect, in which case I can point out that the veracity of the Chinese numbers is, well, suspect to put it mildly.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Suraj »

It's not really worthwhile to deal with trolling or even respond about cold Chinese calculations here.

This is fundamentally incoming information to process and manage. There's no need for pushback. It's not like DavidD has any influence on policy. Not all of it will be palatable, but in the larger scheme of things that is not relevant.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

Suraj wrote:It's not really worthwhile to deal with trolling or even respond about cold Chinese calculations here.

This is fundamentally incoming information to process and manage. There's no need for pushback. It's not like DavidD has any influence on policy. Not all of it will be palatable, but in the larger scheme of things that is not relevant.
In that vein, I think this article does a good job of providing an overview of where the CCP comes from and where it's at now. I know you and a few others are pretty familiar with much of what the article talks about, but for many others, despite it being a fairly long read, it's actually a pretty concise summary. The suggestions on how to approach China, of course, is debatable.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2 ... hout-china

I think one thing of import that the article mentions, is that the magnitude and speed of China and therefore the CCP's gain in wealth and power is unprecedented in history. That makes historical comparisons difficult and therefore predictions difficult as well.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

A good primer on the state of the global semi conductor market now and the US effort to reduce dependence on Taiwan based manufacturing.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

https://amp.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719 ... er_impress

China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding towards its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise.

Image
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

ldev wrote:All of this is contrived by the Communist Party to ensure that China does in fact become the Middle Kingdom, the foremost power on earth, something they believe is fore ordained. The CCP has never been shy about taking on huge gambles which put the lives and livelihood of the Chinese people and the country itself on the line in pursuit of their primary goal. And you can go back and look at everything from the Great Leap Forward to the Cultural Revolution when 20 million or more Chinese died of starvation.

Translated into today's economics, the creation of gigantic asset bubbles such as the $64 trillion real estate market are only the means towards that same end. This creation of credit which enables economic activity, economic speculation but also provides funds and liquidity for the PLA. By comparison the total US real estate sector is valued at about $ 34 trillion. And US Federal Government debt i.e. all outstanding US Treasury bills and bonds are about $28-30 trillion. That is why I said that the Chinese real estate market is the largest asset class in the world. It is equal to the combined valuation of the US real estate and UST market.

If today was not today but was the mid 1960s and the impact of the CCP gambling was confined to their own country the rest of the world would not care. But given China's oversized role in today's global economy and security architecture, the rest of the world has to prepare for the fallout of China's ambitions.
Good post. US prints $ without caring for the world and demands it to be valued high.
Similarly China builds real estate in similar fashion.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

SSridhar or anyone
The thesis work he (Wang Huning) completed at Fudan, which would become his first book, traced the development of the Western concept of national sovereignty from antiquity to the present day—including from Gilgamesh through Socrates, Aristotle, Augustine, Machiavelli, Hobbes, Rousseau, Montesquieu, Hegel, and Marx—and contrasted it with Chinese conceptions of the idea.
Can we see an English version of his thesis?
Thanks in advance.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

What's the name of Wang Huning's First book?
Xi’s thinking on this concept could well have been influenced by Wang, whose first book, based on his master’s dissertation, is on this very topic. Entitled “Guojia Zhuquan,” or “National Sovereignty,” the book traces the genesis and development of the concept in Western thought, contrasting it with the Chinese idea of zhuquan, or sovereignty, which predated its Western counterpart. The term zhuquan literally means the rights or power of the monarch and was adopted by the master-translator Yan Fu (1854-1921) as the Chinese equivalent for sovereignty when he translated “The Spirit of the Laws” by Montesquieu. Wang then addresses the evolution of sovereignty through different epochs, explaining its dual character as consisting of the domestic supremacy of the state and its independence from foreign influence.
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