Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Mar 2018 08:20

Interestingly in the image below marked with "new roads" there was already a row of trenches visible in October 2017 - visible on my video also
https://64c5f.https.cdn.softlayer.net/8 ... 2.001.jpeg

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Mar 2018 11:23

NPC 2018: China President Xi Jinping warns Taiwan will face 'punishment of history' for separatism - Straits Times

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned self-ruled Taiwan on Tuesday (March 20) that it will face the “punishment of history” for any attempt at separatism, offering his strongest warning yet to the island claimed by China as its sacred territory.

Taiwan is one of China’s most sensitive issues and a potentially dangerous military flashpoint.

China’s hostility towards Taiwan has risen since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

China suspects Ms Tsai wants to push for formal independence, which would cross a red line for Communist Party leaders in Beijing, though Ms Tsai has said she wants to maintain the status quo and is committed to ensuring peace.

China has been infuriated by US President Donald Trump’s signing into law legislation last week that encourages the United States to send senior officials to Taiwan to meet Taiwanese counterparts and vice versa.

The United States does not have formal ties with Taiwan but is required by law to help it with self-defence and is the island’s primary source of weapons.

In a speech at the end of China’s annual session of parliament, Xi told the 3,000-odd delegates that China would push for the “peaceful reunification of the motherland” and work for more Taiwanese to enjoy the opportunities of China’s development.

“It is a shared aspiration of all Chinese people and in their basic interests to safeguard China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and realise China’s complete reunification,” Mr Xi said.

“Any actions and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will meet with the people’s condemnation and the punishment of history,” he added, to loud applause.

China has the will, confidence and ability to defeat any separatist activities, Xi said. “The Chinese people share a common belief that it is never allowed and it is absolutely impossible to separate any inch of our great country’s territory from China.”

The new US law on Taiwan adds to strains between China and the United States over trade, as Trump has enacted tariffs and called for China to reduce its huge trade imbalance with the United States, even while Washington has leaned on Beijing to help resolve tensions with North Korea.

Taiwan has thanked the United States for the law and its support, but its foreign ministry said on Monday there were no plans for any senior leaders, such as the president, to visit the country.

While China’s stepped up military drills around Taiwan over the past year have rattled Taipei, Mr Xi reiterated claims that China’s rise was not a threat to any country, though China considers Taiwan to be merely a Chinese province not a nation.

“Only those who in the habit of threatening others will see everyone else as a threat,” Mr Xi said.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 20 Mar 2018 12:37

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Brah ... -Himalayas

March 20, 2018 7:00 am JST
Brahma Chellaney
China's stealth wars in the Himalayas
Beijing's military advance into Bhutan-claimed territory leaves New Delhi floundering

China's CCTV in August shows a target exploding during a live-fire drill by the Chinese army near its border with India. © CCTV/AP

Operating in the threshold between peace and war, China has pushed its borders far out into international waters in the South China Sea in a way no other power has done elsewhere. Less known is that China is using a similar strategy in the Himalayas to alter facts on the ground -- meter by meter -- without firing a single shot.

India is facing increasingly persistent Chinese efforts to intrude into its desolate borderlands. China, however, has not spared even one of the world's smallest countries, Bhutan, which has barely 8,000 men in its security forces. In the disputed Himalayan plateau of Doklam, claimed by both Bhutan and China, the People's Liberation Army has incrementally changed the status quo since last fall.

Doklam became a defining event in a 10-week standoff between Chinese and Indian troops last summer after the PLA started building a highway on that plateau to the India border: For the first time since China's success in the South China Sea, a rival power stalled Chinese construction activity to change the status quo in a disputed territory.

India intervened as Bhutan's security guarantor to thwart a threat to its own security. Despite almost daily Chinese threats to "teach it a lesson," India refused to back down, forcing a humiliated Beijing to eventually accept a mutual-withdrawal deal to end the standoff with a country it sees as economically and militarily inferior.

But as happened with the 2012 U.S.-brokered deal for Chinese and Philippine naval vessels to withdraw from around the Scarborough Shoal, China did not faithfully comply with the Doklam accord. If anything, China applied the Scarborough "model" to Doklam -- agree to disengage and, after the standoff is over, quietly send in forces to occupy the territory.

Related stories
Maldives unrest shapes into proxy fight for China and India
Why Doklam wasn't just another China-India border spat
Doklam thus illustrates that while India may be content with a tactical win, China has the perseverance and guile to win at the strategic level. Camouflaging offense as defense, China hews to ancient military theorist Sun Tzu's advice, "The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy." As Sun Tzu said, "All warfare is based on deception."

India tried for months to obfuscate the PLA's increasing control of Doklam so as not to dilute the "victory" it had sold to its public. Even as commercially available satellite images showed China's rapidly expanding military infrastructure in Doklam, India's foreign ministry tried pulling the wool over the public's eyes by repeatedly saying there were "no new developments at the faceoff site or its vicinity," located at the plateau's southern edge. Meanwhile, China continued to build permanent military structures and forward deploy troops across much of Doklam.

This month, Indian Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman grudgingly admitted China has constructed helipads and other military structures in Doklam so as to "maintain" troop deployments even in winter. Previously, there were no force deployments or permanent military structures on the uninhabited plateau, which was visited by nomadic shepherds and Bhutanese and Chinese mobile patrols other than in the harsh winter.

To be sure, China has dictated a Hobson's choice to India on Doklam, like it did to the Philippines over Scarborough: Go along with the changed status quo or face the risk of open war. Clearly, New Delhi didn't anticipate that an end to the faceoff would result in rapid Chinese encroachments that now virtually preclude India intervening again in Doklam at Bhutan's behest.

In effect, Beijing has shown Bhutan that India cannot guarantee its territorial integrity.

China's objective unmistakably is to undercut India's influence in Bhutan in the way Beijing has succeeded in another Himalayan nation, Nepal, where a Chinese-backed communist government took office earlier this year. It was Beijing that persuaded Nepal's two main communist parties to overcome their bitter squabbles and join hands in national and local elections.

China's new control over much of Doklam, however, effectively overturns the land-swap deal it has long offered Bhutan. Under the offer, the tiny kingdom was to cede its claim to that plateau in return for Beijing renouncing its claim to a slice of northern Bhutan.

Beijing has held some 24 rounds of border talks with Bhutan since 1984, just as its negotiations with India on territorial and boundary issues have gone on interminably since 1980 without tangible progress. In fact, the largest real estate China covets in Asia is in India -- Arunachal Pradesh, a resource-rich Himalayan territory almost three times as large as Taiwan.

Today, China has stepped up military pressure on India, including beefing up its ground and air assets in the Himalayan region. The Indian government recently told Parliament that the number of Chinese military intrusions into India's vulnerable borderlands jumped 56% in one year -- from 273 in 2016 to 426 in 2017, or more than one per day. It seems that just as China's trade surplus with India has doubled since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, its border incursions are also on a similar rising trajectory.

India's perennially reactive mode allows the PLA to keep the initiative in the Himalayas. More fundamentally, China -- by mounting strategic pressure on multiple Indian flanks while raking in a fast-growing trade surplus (currently running at nearly $5 billion a month) -- is able to have its cake and eat it too.

Add to the picture another important element of China's Himalayan strategy -- reengineering transboundary flows of rivers originating in Tibet through dams and other projects. A third of India's total freshwater supply comes from rivers that start in Tibet. Last year, China breached two bilateral accords with India by withholding upstream river flow data, which is necessary for flood forecasting and warning. Supply of such data could have prevented some of the deaths in the record flooding that ravaged India's northeast.

Some 67 years after China eliminated the historical buffer with India by annexing Tibet, it is transforming Himalayan geopolitics to its advantage. China's strategic penetration of Nepal, which has an open border with India permitting passport-free passage, carries major implications for Indian security. Having lost the outer buffer, Tibet, India now risks losing the inner buffer, Nepal.

In the absence of a coherent strategy to counter China's aggressive Himalayan strategy, an increasingly defensive India has now sought to make peace with Beijing. For example, it not only advised its officials to stay away from events marking the 60th anniversary this month of the Dalai Lama's flight to India, but also got Tibetan exiles to move those events from New Delhi to remote Dharamsala, in the Himalayan foothills. Modi's attention is focused on returning to power in the next national election, which is due to be held in April-May 2019 but might be advanced to this year-end.

Just when Chinese President Xi Jinping's lurch toward one-man rule has led to a rethink in the West on its relationship with China, India has signaled its intent to go soft on China, with its foreign ministry saying that New Delhi was willing to develop relations with Beijing "based on commonalities." Salvaging Modi's China visit for last September's BRICS (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) summit prompted New Delhi to cut the Doklam deal with Beijing, paving the way for the Chinese advance into the plateau. Now Modi is again set to go to China, this time for a bilateral summit with Xi. But India will likely not only come away empty-handed from its new propitiatory approach but also give cover to China's designs against it.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 20 Mar 2018 12:40

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney

With India mired in petty domestic politics as ever, China quietly builds an alternative road in Doklam toward the strategic Jampheri Ridge, overlooking India’s most vulnerable point — the “Chicken Neck” that connects its far northeast to the heartland. (link: https://goo.gl/9cXunA) goo.gl/9cXunA

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 20 Mar 2018 12:47

Tango or not, India must remain steadfast with China; Beijing's call for 'friendship' could be another ploy

Tango or not, India must remain steadfast with China; Beijing's call for 'friendship' could be another ploy

India Prakash Katoch Mar 19, 2018

Two signals from China caused an eclectic change in India’s outlook towards China. In December 2017, China’s Special Representative Yang Jiechi delivered Chinese president Xi Jinping's message to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that both countries should aspire to become "friends for generations" and "partners in rejuvenation".

The second signal was Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi briefing media in Beijing (March 2018), "Despite some tests and difficulties, the China-India relationship continues to grow. ...China is upholding its rights and legitimate interests.... Chinese dragon and Indian elephant must not fight each other but dance with each other.... If China and India are united, one plus one will become eleven instead of two. With political trust, not even the Himalayas can stop us from friendly exchanges.”

India’s response was erratic, to say the least. A government memo asked leaders and government functionaries not to attend Tibetan diaspora events marking 60 years of Dalai Lama’s exile and thanking India for giving shelter to Tibetans. With External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj attending foreign ministers meet in China before the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Qingdao (June 2018), which will be attended by Modi, it's all the more reason to interpret Chinese signals cautiously. Besides, the fact that Tibetan prime minister Lobsang Sangay was invited for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, wouldn't it have been prudent to quietly orchestrate postponing the 'thank you' event to the end 2018, giving time to observe the Chinese behaviour?

Ads by ZINC

India also cancelled the annual Asian Security Conference by Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) citing “administrative reasons”, this year’s theme being "India and China in Asia: Making of a New Equilibrium". Whether or not there was fear of discussions that could displease Chinese participants, the cancellation does indicate undue appeasement; a sign of weakness.

Significantly, while Yang delivered Xi's message to Modi, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) was permanently establishing itself in north Dokalam. Defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman eventually admitted Chinese presence in the region but efforts continue to play it down. A post on social media talked of PLA shivering in minus 17 degrees in temporary shelters. Another talked of satellite photographs misinterpreted and that China had no Plan B at Dokalam, which must have tickled the Chinese pink. Incidentally, Yang was a state councilor under Chinese premier Li Keqiang in 2013 when the latter visited India in the wake of the 19-kilometre deep PLA intrusion at Raki Nala in the Depsang Plains of eastern Ladakh.

Yi’s call for tango too raises many questions. Dance to whose tune — China’s? Doesn’t his statement about upholding China’s rights and legitimate interests imply all illegal claims (Dokalam, Arunachal Pradesh, and other areas), and isn’t this a threat? What is the basis of trusting China — a call to Tango? Where was China when Russian president Vladimir Putin was pushing for stronger India-China-Russia relations over a decade ago? Would Yi call that 1+1+1 equals 111?

The Chinese excel in attacking the leadership of target country — witness Pakistan, Nepal, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and even Indonesia. This is extremely easy in politically divided India. That is why Ambassador Luo Zhaohui was parleying with the Opposition and threatening India during the Dokalam standoff, while Indian communist leaders — welcomed and funded by Beijing and the Communist Party of China — are now sending "heartfelt congratulation and best wishes" to Congress president Rahul Gandhi. Quite apparently, China wants India to join CPEC, something the Indian Opposition may have promised to do if they come to power, surrendering the sovereignty of India notwithstanding.

Chinese are also past masters in winning over diplomats posted in Beijing. Remember Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel deploring then ambassador to China, KM Panikkar, in his letter to Jawaharlal Nehru on 7 November, 1950. Another former ambassador to China serving as National Security Advisor of India during the UPA II rule was building perceptions for India to withdraw from the Siachen area that would enable China and Pakistan to join hands in Ladakh at an immense strategic disadvantage to India.

Vijay Gokhale, India’s present Foreign Secretary has also served in Beijing albeit he has red-flagged China’s connectivity push.

But all said and done, don’t we understand that China is behind the increased belligerence of Pakistan, turning the Maldives and Nepal against India; Pakistan targeting Indian villagers to increase pressure on the Modi government; or the Pakistani prime minister rushing to Nepal to coordinate a joint China-Pakistan-Nepal pressure group against India, and the like. With absolute power, Xi is challenging the US on multiple fronts. Chinese protégé North Korea is testing nuclear reactors for making weapons-grade plutonium.

Some views are being expressed that the India-China rapprochement would wean the communist nation away from Pakistan, which is naïve considering China uses Pakistan against India, employing the ancient strategy to 'kill with a borrowed knife'. Besides, Pakistan is already a Chinese province and strategically vital for China. The view that the Chinese are constrained to team up with India because of the downturn in the Chinses economy too is flawed because the Chinese economy is four times that of India, and India will hardly terminate trade relations in case of border clashes; considering we haven’t even withdrawn the most favoured nation status to Pakistan.

India needs to remain steadfast, even though the NDA II has continued with the UPA policy of deliberately keeping India armed forces ill-equipped. India still has surprises for China in case of larger conflagrations while in small-sized conflicts, the military can be counted upon to blunt PLA intrusions. The obsolete weapons don’t mean they don’t fire, and Xi knows this from China’s invasion of Vietnam in 1979. But if India wants peace, it must prepare for war. In geopolitics, no negotiations work from the position of weakness. Xi wants China-centric Asia which requires subjugating India. Instead of getting mesmerised by the serpent's gaze, we should focus on its fangs.

Finally, there is no reason for India to be obsequious to Beijing as China will mount all-round pressure in trying to force New Delhi to join CPEC and install a government that dances to Xi’s tune. At the same time, relations that don’t impinge India’s national interests must be pursued.

The author is a retired lieutenant-general of the Indian Army

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Mar 2018 16:26

video of a massacre conducted by the PLAN in 1988 on a bunch of vietnamese sailors wading around atop a atoll in the spratly islands. they were shot and their ship sank by using AA guns

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Mar 2018 16:30

mischief reef

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Mar 2018 18:57

https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/ ... 6861457408

VR @KesariDhwaj

VR Retweeted Manu Pubby

Question - How is it a bypass when by your own analysis (a) the road is being constructed at a depth of 4 kms to east of the earlier point of contention and (b) it leads to eastern part of the Jampheri Ridge away from the original point close to Mt Gymochen?

Manu Pubby

China makes new road to bypass Indian blockade at Doklam, to get access to critical ridge.

New alignment 4 km away from Indian posts, will open South Doklam to PLA troops.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 20 Mar 2018 19:58

Singha wrote:video of a massacre conducted by the PLAN in 1988 on a bunch of vietnamese sailors wading around atop a atoll in the spratly islands. they were shot and their ship sank by using AA guns

The Vietnamese know how to fight! We should provide them with every arm we possibly can and build rail/road links to Hanoi. It will be HUGE missed opportunity to NOT cultivate this natural economic, cultural and military ally.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 20 Mar 2018 21:24

Xi: Ready for bloody battle, won't cede an inch of Chinese territory

BEIJING: Chinese president Xi Jinping raised his nationalistic pitch, saying on Tuesday China was ready to "fight the bloody battle" against its enemies. He was speaking at the end of the parliamentary session which confirmed his second term and laid the path for his perpetual rule.

"The Chinese people have been indomitable and persistent. We are resolved to fight the bloody battle against our enemies, and on the basis of independence we are determined to recapture the relics," he said in a nationally televised speech.

Xi did not identify enemies. But he said China would not cede a single inch of its territory.

Analysts are asking if Xi would be able to arouse nationalistic fervour with his strong rhetoric in the manner Mao Zedong, founder of Communist China, did. He is being widely compared to Mao because the Chinese parliament has removed the two-term limit on the president, allowing Xi to rule as long as he wishes.

Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King's College in London, believes that Mao had penetrated the inner lives of the Chinese people which is not happening in the case of Xi.

"There is not that level of personal, emotional engagement," Brown said at a lecture in Beijing while comparing Xi's charisma with Mao recently. Today's Chinese people are largely apathetic to political changes and more interested in material goods, he pointed out.

Speaking at the National People's Congress, the Chinese parliament, Xi did not identify enemies. "The Chinese people and the Chinese nation have a shared conviction which is not a single inch of our land will be and can be ceded from China," Xi said.

There are signs he said this in the context of Taiwan. But this view may be interpreted later to include areas like Arunachal Pradesh, which does not belong to China but Beijing insists that it does.

Xi said told 3,000 legislators that "since modern times, rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation has become the biggest dream of our nation".

"We have strong capabilities of taking our due place in the world. We have fought for that big dream for about 170 years. Today more than ever the Chinese people are close to that dream, ever more confident and capable of realising the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," he said.

Besides India, China has territorial disputes in the East China Sea with Japan and South China Sea with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Mar 2018 23:37

ibnlive

VICTORIA, SEYCHELLES: Seychelles' opposition coalition, which holds a majority in parliament, said Tuesday it would not ratify a deal signed with India to build a military base on one of the archipelago's outlying islands.

The deal would see India invest $550 million dollars in building the base on Assumption island to help it ensure the safety of its vessels in the southern Indian Ocean.

Indian soldiers would be deployed on the island which lies 1,135 kilometres southwest from the capital Victoria, and help train Seychelles' troops.

However, the deal has faced some resistance from locals, and Wavel Ramkalawan, head of the opposition Linyon Demokratik Seselwa (Seychelles Democratic Union in Creole) said the coalition "will not ratify the Assumption deal. This deal is dead".

The LDS had held a majority in parliament since its victory in 2016 legislative elections.

On Monday, President Danny Faure said he would meet with Mr Ramkalawan on March 26 to discuss the deal, which was agreed in principle in 2015 and then finalised in January this year.

The government says the base will help coastguards to patrol its 1.3 million square kilometre exclusive economic zone for illegal fishing, drug trafficking and piracy.

Currently, the remote coral island has a tin shack post office, an air strip and almost no people. Less than seven kilometres long the island has a high point just 30 metres above sea level and is covered in bird excrement.

But its location lends it strategic importance for monitoring shipping in the Mozambique Channel.

COMMENTSHowever, Indian presence in the Seychelles is a sensitive matter. Some fear an influx of Indian workers who, they say, might come to dominate the economy, while others consider a foreign power building a military base an affront to sovereignty and national pride.

Opponents of the plan also cite Assumption's relative proximity to Aldabra atoll, a UNESCO World Heritage Site that is home to the world's largest population of giant tortoises.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Mar 2018 23:39

My take on China's plans in the Doklam area in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yii-I6Ih1IY

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 21 Mar 2018 04:25

PM Modi calls up Xi Jinping, wishes him on his re-election

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Chinese President Xi Jinping to offer congratulations for his re-election and discussed efforts to enhance high-level exchanges and deepen bilateral cooperation.

Xi’s re-election was formally approved by the Chinese parliament recently. The two leaders agreed that as major powers growing rapidly, bilateral relations between India and China were vital for the realisation of 21st century as ‘Asian Century’, said an official release.

The two leaders also agreed to continue their close consultations on regional and international issues of mutual interest. State-run Xinhua news agency reported Modi as having told Xi, that both countries are ancient civilisations with global influence, adding that India will work with China to enhance high-level exchanges, deepen bilateral ties, strengthen coordination and cooperation in international affairs to further a closer developmental partnership between the two countries and promote global and regional peace and development.

Xi appreciated Modi’s congratulations, even as the Indian Prime Minister said Xi’s re-election shows that he enjoys the support of the whole Chinese nation, the report said. Xi briefed Modi on the annual sessions of the NPC and the CPPCC.

He also said China would deepen its reform and opening up and will make greater contribution to the common development and progress of the world. Modi, in his message posted on his account on the Chinese social media platform Weibo on Monday, had said: “Dear President Xi Jinping, congratulations on getting re-elected as the President of the People’s Republic of China. “I look forward to working with you for further development of our bilateral relations”.

Cheers

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Mar 2018 06:41

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... witter.com

The Chinese people and the Chinese nation have a shared conviction that not a single inch of our land will be and can be ceded from China," Xi said, addressing the closing session of the NPC, the first by a President in recent years.Though Xi made no mention of any territorial issues, the country has been involved in a number of disputes with some of its neighbours.Besides the border dispute with India, China claims rights over the disputed islands in East China Sea under the control of Japan and vast stretches of the South China Sea where it is firmly asserting its control.Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims over the strategic South China Sea.Xi said China has all the capabilities to take its due place in the world.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Mar 2018 09:42

Fuhrer XI Gins, flushed with his elevation to lifetime emperor of Chin, has vowed that " not an inch" of Chin territory will be lost to the enemy.This is a direct warning to Taiwan, ASEAN,and India, who all have territorial
disputes with Chin.

Wake up Lutyens Bagh and smell the gunpowder chai being brewed in Chin.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 21 Mar 2018 09:47

the main thing is "our land". Does that include moon because Yutu roamed on it.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Mar 2018 09:54

China has changed under Xi, he is like Mao, Bad news and failures are hidden. He also a bit like Hitler, for Chinese ego he is going to try and get a miltary victory. The first country that is like India in 1962 is going to get it. It will also face the full strength of the PLA, then after 1 sector is done, they will turn on other sectors. Like Hitler Nazi Germany, it is better to be someone in the 2nd or 3rd shirmish after PLA is finished its initial punches. Lets see which land becomes the Machuria or Czechoslovakia or Poland this time.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Mar 2018 11:37

Aditya_V wrote:China has changed under Xi, he is like Mao, Bad news and failures are hidden. He also a bit like Hitler, for Chinese ego he is going to try and get a miltary victory. The first country that is like India in 1962 is going to get it. It will also face the full strength of the PLA, then after 1 sector is done, they will turn on other sectors. Like Hitler Nazi Germany, it is better to be someone in the 2nd or 3rd shirmish after PLA is finished its initial punches. Lets see which land becomes the Machuria or Czechoslovakia or Poland this time.

Right or wrong I consider myself as being a sort of "observer and student" of wars. Probably not better than anyone else - but I have some views. In "recent years" (1990 onwards) I was initially greatly impressed by the coalition wars against Iraq. In fact the war in Kosovo was a sort of warning shot of "future wars" in which air power plays a decisive role and I was initially awed. But later I realized that intense, overwhelming high tech air power does a lot of damage but does not win wars.

Warfighters have to be clever. They have to send in forces to do a specific job and then get out when the job is done or while the going is good. And in no case does the job get done without putting soldiers on the ground. Putting soldiers on the ground means more deaths and more deaths means a gradual build up of political opposition. It's even worse when soldiers are put in to fight ideological armies who are fighting to die.

So while Chinese power is heading towards the US model of "extreme" dominance in numbers and firepower - that in itself is not a guaranteed war winner. If any conflict occurs with China - the one thing we can expect is a massive propaganda campaign saying how China's enemies are being routed and scattered by Chinese forces. Chinese war news can be predicted before any war occurs. But in actual fact if there are reverses as there will be in war - then it will get politically more and more difficult to sustain a war. In that sense Mao was "at the right time and right place" to punish Nehru's India just like Indira Gandhi found the right time and place to punish Pakistan. But these are lucky breaks that have been grabbed with both hands. These breaks don't come easy.

I like the rhetoric of "peaceful rise" alongside military expansion. The latter facilitates the former as others are afraid to fight. But if a fight is forced on others - they will not back down or collapse. Nehru may have done it and the Pakis too, as well as Egyptians. But those were lucky breaks. Even the US has been mostly "held back" from quick and total victory. In fact I agree with chola that maybe we should fight the Chinese and hand them a little defeat to remember so that the aura they create by great bombast, bluster and rhetoric is punctured and they can join the rest of us at ground level. Floating in teh stratosphere claiming greatness is something even Pakis do.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2018 11:53

Xi is doing four things that the Hans, at large, would welcome.

He is eliminating corruption. There is absolutely no doubting the passion with which he is doing that. In the process, he may be also eliminating any potential adversary; but, that's besides the point. He is relentless and has taken on bigwigs. Chairman Xi is going to make this drive even more ruthless in his second term because he is making the Party apparatus invade every sphere just like Chairman Mao did during Cultural Revolution. Xi has always been a total loyalist to the Party and today he IS the Party. One of his "Four Comprehensives" is to "Comprehensively govern the party strictly".
Xi is determined to improve the sagging economy. His wholesale change of key economic ministers/advisers in the latest announcement point to that. He has set the timeline of c. 2020 for poverty alleviation in rural regions and c. 2022 to build a moderately prosperous Chinese society. This is a very tall order because China's affluence is only along the coast and the hinterland is poor. He is hardly left with two years for the first and four years for the next. The Land Silk Road is a prime mover for this.
He is throwing all the hints of full integration of HongKong and Taiwan. The former would be relatively easier to do. But, the Hans at large applaud such statements coming from the Chairman. The Chinese leaders have resorted to the ruse of nationalism whenever they wanted and Xi is taking that notches above. His stance on the South China Sea as well as its brazen militarization have been well received among the masses. His 'not an inch" in the NPC a few days back has resonated well with the Hans at large. In my reading, the c.2035 timeline by Xi, by which the modernization of the PLA would be complete, hints at Taiwan integration around that time.
He is hinting at the continuation of the Chinese Empire on a larger and grander scale than ever before, which got interrupted earlier. The c. 2050 timeline when China would become 'a global power with a world-class military force' is pointing to that. The Hans at large would recognize that their Empire was interrupted by events mid 19th to mid 20th century, the Century of Humiliation in the Chinese Calendar and that the Great Leader is only striving to restore what is rightfully due to them

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Mar 2018 12:22

^^
Agree with most of your points but to add/modify a few bits here and there.

2. Long back [between 2012-2015. I cannot recall the exact date from memory] an economist had predicted that Xi [IIRC, he actually had said who ever comes next because it was before Xi's selection] will be left with no option but to consolidate power given the challenges he will face to change the fortunes of a sagging Chinese economy. Otherwise there was no way the massive changes that need to be rammed through to *Save* the Chinese economy can ever be implemented. His reasoning was that the SOEs, where the maximum effort was required, will also be the source of major opposition. These SOEs are controlled by the various political power centers that have their own interests to protect. So centralization of power was a prerequisite for any economic reform and without economic reform the BEST Case scenario was a Japan style stagnation. His predictions have come true on the power grab.

3. My reading/guess on a Taiwan gambit too points to a probable date of around 2035. I think I had written about it once before. There is no certainty but China would probably not want a major war with India before Taiwan. We have about about 10-15 years to prepare for a really aggressive China. Minor confrontations like the one @ Doklam and power play like one in Maldives will still happen.

I think with the economic reforms that are already in play in India we should be a $10-$15 Trillion economy by 2035. That should not only lift our economic weight in the world but also enable us to ramp up our defense spending enough to be able to resist China, on the core area of our concerns i.e. at our current LAC and IOR region small pinpricks not withstanding in the interim. Also, a lot of domestic Defense projects should start yielding substantial results by then.

4. Chinese dream, if it is about an empire like the olden days, is bound to be dashed. By 2035, Both India and US still be in a position to resist China on their own in their own spheres of influence. Japan will still hold the key to the SCS.

By 2050, the disparity between India and China will continue to shrink and we should be able to give back as good as we get from China even if US withdraws from IOR and SCS.

As I have stated before Dengs advice to China should serve us well "hold your position [defense of the current status and not some adventure on our Tibetan Dharma] ... bide your time [patience] ... accomplish things where possible [work on economy/defense/foreign relationship EVEN with China]".

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 21 Mar 2018 12:25

They are bulldozing any and all opposition in HK. All pro democratic voices are being systematically muzzled. "HK is no longer a british dominion. We are chinese now and PRC rule is in play" is essentially their motto. Enough with all this kiddish talk, now lets all be adults and 'integrate'. Taiwan has the 7th fleet to back it and hence a lot tougher to 'integrate'.

The extreme crackdown in Xinjiang, especially the tech, is slowly being used in the east too. Rating of people's social conduct andusing it for things like railway ticket, plane ticket buying ability etc is unheard of since the nazi days.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2018 13:51

pankajs wrote: . . There is no certainty but China would probably not want a major war with India before Taiwan. We have about about 10-15 years to prepare for a really aggressive China. Minor confrontations like the one @ Doklam and power play like one in Maldives will still happen.

I am pretty certain that India is not on China's radar at all as far as military confrontation that could lead to a war is concerned. China's twin primary concerns for a war are the ~~South~~-Indo-China-Sea and Taiwan. India would be the final Frontier for China to overcome to establish its hegemony in Asia and until that Armageddon or that final Ghazwa, China would do everything to keep us at a simmer without boiling over, test our tenacity, statecraft, retard our growth, shrink our sphere of influence etc., but not do anything beyond. Of course, this doesn't mean that we sit on our haunches in the meanwhile.

In Doka La, the initiative was grabbed by the IA, unexpectedly for the Chinese. Clearly, they were caught unprepared in their creeping-up strategy. Also, in Maldives, I believe that the Chinese quickly withdrew the proposed show of strength after they sensed 'something'. Time will tell what that 'something' was. It reminded me of the 1971 USS Enterprise tactic to browbeat IN but this time, I believe, we could return the favours on our own steam (pun intended) so that entry from Sunda was followed quickly by the exit through Lombok.

Actually, China is finding us a hands full already with the present government's thrust. It would be secretly hoping for an alternate government in 2019. The decisive actions by this government are worrying to the Chinese. The level of understanding reached in the Quad is phenomenal. There is a chance that all these might go a waste if the incumbent government does not come back.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2018 14:16

Please see this post in the OBOR thread for an exposition of some of the things we have discussed here.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2018 14:29

Xi flags nationalism to begin his second term in office - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

President Xi Jinping has set the tone for his second term in office with a rousing speech where he warned his countrymen of the difficulties that they may have to endure to ensure China’s peaceful rise.

In an address which was intended to rally the Communist Party of China to counter expected headwinds ahead, Mr. Xi evoked Chinese nationalism, including an oblique take from Mao Zedong’s famous quote —“The east wind will prevail over the west wind.”

“We must ride on the mighty east wind of the new era, charge forward with a full tank and steadily steer the wheel with full power, so that the giant ship of China carrying the great dream of more than 1.3 billion Chinese people will continue to cleave through the waves and sail to victory for a promising tomorrow,” {Wow! What a terrific scenario he evokes in the minds of the Han!!} Mr. Xi declared at the end of the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s Parliament.

No threat to anyone

But Mr. Xi reassured those who may be intimidated by China’s rise that his country was not pursing “hegemony”.

“China’s development will not pose a threat to any country. China will never seek hegemony and will never engage in expansion,” he said. “Only those who are accustomed to threatening others will see everyone as a threat,” he observed.

Yet, the Chinese President made it plain that his country’s territorial status was cast in stone. “Any actions and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will be condemned by the people and punished by history.” Analysts say Mr. Xi’s comment could be directed at many, including those seeking independence of Taiwan or “self-determination” in Hong Kong, Xinjiang or countries such as India, Japan or in Southeast Asia, which have territorial disputes with China. “It is not allowed and absolutely impossible to separate an inch of the country’s territories,” Mr. Xi said. {Of course, he is raising nationalism to a higher pitch; but, the law in China is such that Xi will be executed if he talks of accommodation in recovering Chinese territory}

China’s tough position on its boundaries could also be a message to the U.S., after President Donald Trump last Friday signed a legislation, which encourages frequent exchanges between U.S. and Taiwanese officials.

“China is laying out its red lines, as (Mr.) Trump prepares his trade war declaration,” says political commentator Einar Tangen in a conversation with The Hindu . “On the sidelines, the rest of the world has to decide between these two competing visions and styles,” he said.

Mr. Xi said that the people of China must be ready to contend with forces that were likely to hinder their country’s growth spiral.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday congratulated Mr. Xi on his re-election as President. The two leaders, in a telephonic conversation, agreed to continue their close consultations on issues of mutual interest. Mr. Modi also took to Sina Weibo on Monday to congratulate the Chinese President.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 21 Mar 2018 16:38

China's increasing presence in Doklam: 'Will Modi Ji hug, cry in public this time', wonders Rahul

NEW DELHI: Congress president Rahul Gandhi today tweeted wondering how Prime Minister Narendra Modi will react to news that China has resumed road and other military infrastructure construction in Doklam by circumventing Indian troops.

"How will Modi Ji react this time? *Hugplomacy *Blame RM *Cry in public *All of the above", tweeted Rahul.

Rahul was referring to the PM's penchant for hugging world leaders, which the Congress ridicules and calls "hugplomacy", and to the times he's cried in public - while making his first speech in Parliament, during a townhall with Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, and while paying homage to the religious head of the Swaminarayan sect.
The China reference was to a TOI report from yesterday.

Sources told TOI that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops are "trying to work around or outflank" the Indian Doklam military outpost, which is located on a ridge, by constructing a new 1.3-km long road and "communication trenches" around 4-km away from the spot. This alternative axis could allow China access to the Jampheri Ridge in south
Doklam, as the PLA had earlier wanted, before the 73-day troop stand-off last year.

Indian security establishment officials on Monday, refused to comment on the news. New Delhi is "highly sensitive" about the Jampheri Ridge because it overlooks its militarily-vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, or the so-called "Chicken's Neck" area.

Officials say China remains keen to usurp Doklam or the Dolam Plateau, disputed between Beijing and Thimpu, to add strategic depth to its narrow Chumbi Valley, which juts in like a dagger between Sikkim and Bhutan.

Comments : I trust Pappu is forgetting that his so-called Illustrious GREAT GRAND FATHER (1) Gave up-Passed On the Offer to Indian Membership to the Security Council TO CHINA as if it was his prerogative to do so without consulting the Indian Parliament (2) Disregarded the Indian Generals and Air Marshals by not taking Immediate Action when the Chinese starting to Build a Road in Aksai Chin (3) Refused to accept the Defence Leadership to improve the Defence Capacity by cutting down their Legitimate Defence Budget Requirements and (4) Accepted to let the US-UK Combine to give 80.20 Percent of the Indus Waters as well as Paid about £ 67 Million to Pakistan for India getting 19.80 Percent of the Indus Waters - AGAIN WITHOUT CONSULTING TE INDIAN PARLIAMENT.

I would request Gentle Readers of this Forum to correct me if I am wrong.

Cheers

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 21 Mar 2018 16:57

Four Page Article. In addition I do not have the Knowledge or Facility to Post the TOI Images. Need help in this matter!

How India and China are vying for influence in South Asia

NEW DELHI: Concerned over the growing Chinese presence in India’s neighbourhood, the Modi government has hiked its financial aid for the 2018-19 financial year beginning April to some countries.

Cheers

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2018 17:53

Peregrine wrote:I would request Gentle Readers of this Forum to correct me if I am wrong.

Where is the need to correct you, Peregrine ji?

Jits · Post by **Jits** » 21 Mar 2018 18:01

shiv wrote:My take on China's plans in the Doklam area in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yii-I6Ih1IY

Shiv sir, I have some queries please bear with me,
If chinese are able to build a road to Gyemochen peak then how worrisome is the situation for us? Does the peak lies in chinese territory or Bhutanese. If peak lies in Chinese territory then how can we prevent china from gaining access to it's own territory, and what was the point of standoff last year when we knew the ultimate destination for them lies in their own territory. If however it lies in Bhutanese territory then shouldn't we have first occupied this peak and then prevented Chinese from building a road to it? Now it will require another standoff to prevent chinese, has the modi government left with any appetite for it, given that it is going out of the way to please chinese.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 21 Mar 2018 18:12

Peregrine wrote:I would request Gentle Readers of this Forum to correct me if I am wrong.

SSridhar wrote:Where is the need to correct you, Peregrine ji?

SSridhar Ji :

One is humbled at such praise.

Thanks indeed.

Cheers

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2018 18:27

Jits, on the Jhamperi ridge is the Bhutan border post Zom Pelri.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Mar 2018 18:29

Jits wrote: So Shiv,
If chinese are able to build a road to Gyemochen peak then how worrisome is the situation for us? Does the peak lies in chinese territory or Bhutanese. If peak lies in Chinese territory then how can we prevent china from gaining access to it's own territory, and what was the point of standoff last year when we knew the ultimate destination for them lies in their own territory. If however it lies in Bhutanese territory then it will require another standoff to prevent chinese, has the modi government left with any appetite for it, given that it is going out of the way to please chinese.

Pardon my saying this but the first part of your question is impossible to answer because you ask "how worrisome is it". Worrisomeness has no metric and yes or no to being worried are completely meaningless statements.

The Doklam plateau is ..er was unashamedly Bhutanese territory - but the Chinese get their undies in a huge knot if they are told this - as per comments on my videos. They say it is theirs. The Chinese have drawn no boundary as to how far they might want to go on that plateau - given that they have been on there at least since 2005 - as Google Earth tracks reveal. In any case the new roads that I have spoken about are not on the plateau at all but in the slopes below the plateau going towards a river that is a natural boundary between Tibet and Bhutan

Will they go down and try to build a road as I have theorised in my video? They could. One half of the story is that they will not be able to hold the position in war. The entire area and their approach road would be under surveillance on the Indian army. So war is not the problem. The Chinese may decide to do this in peacetime. Would India go in and stop them? Assuming that they do that and are being monitored - the Bhutanese would have to invite us to help them stop the Chinese. The other thing is that in the interest of "full disclosure", whatever I have said about the terrain in the video is based on Google Earth images. The terrain that I have indicated may not be that friendly or easy, but that is a questionmark. The Chinese are good engineers and could build a road. I will look at the area in more detail - but so far the impression I got is that the best and easiest route was the one they tried to take. The route to Gyemochen is easier from near the India border - but if they come too close they will be stopped again. India will not allow them to bring heavy earth movers just 200-300 meters from the border. So The Chinese will have to find a route further away.

Jits · Post by **Jits** » 21 Mar 2018 18:53

shiv wrote:
Jits wrote: So Shiv,
If chinese are able to build a road to Gyemochen peak then how worrisome is the situation for us? Does the peak lies in chinese territory or Bhutanese. If peak lies in Chinese territory then how can we prevent china from gaining access to it's own territory, and what was the point of standoff last year when we knew the ultimate destination for them lies in their own territory. If however it lies in Bhutanese territory then it will require another standoff to prevent chinese, has the modi government left with any appetite for it, given that it is going out of the way to please chinese.
Pardon my saying this but the first part of your question is impossible to answer because you ask "how worrisome is it". Worrisomeness has no metric and yes or no to being worried are completely meaningless statements.

The Doklam plateau is ..er was unashamedly Bhutanese territory - but the Chinese get their undies in a huge knot if they are told this - as per comments on my videos. They say it is theirs. The Chinese have drawn no boundary as to how far they might want to go on that plateau - given that they have been on there at least since 2005 - as Google Earth tracks reveal. In any case the new roads that I have spoken about are not on the plateau at all but in the slopes below the plateau going towards a river that is a natural boundary between Tibet and Bhutan

Will they go down and try to build a road as I have theorised in my video? They could. One half of the story is that they will not be able to hold the position in war. The entire area and their approach road would be under surveillance on the Indian army. So war is not the problem. The Chinese may decide to do this in peacetime. Would India go in and stop them? Assuming that they do that and are being monitored - the Bhutanese would have to invite us to help them stop the Chinese. The other thing is that in the interest of "full disclosure", whatever I have said about the terrain in the video is based on Google Earth images. The terrain that I have indicated may not be that friendly or easy, but that is a questionmark. The Chinese are good engineers and could build a road. I will look at the area in more detail - but so far the impression I got is that the best and easiest route was the one they tried to take. The route to Gyemochen is easier from near the India border - but if they come too close they will be stopped again. India will not allow them to bring heavy earth movers just 200-300 meters from the border. So The Chinese will have to find a route further away.

Shiv sir,
My question is if the peak lies in Bhutanese territory as bhutan claims then during the last year's standoff shouldn't we have first occupied this peak which was the ultimate aim for them and then prevented them from building a road to it ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Mar 2018 19:33

Jits wrote: My question is if the peak lies in Bhutanese territory as bhutan claims then during the last year's standoff shouldn't we have first occupied this peak which was the ultimate aim for them and then prevented them from building a road to it ?

The idea that the peak is their ultimate aim is just my guesswork. I may be wrong - but it is a distinct and "attractive" possibility

Two things - as someone mentioned - there is a small Bhutanese army presence in the area. I don't know where it is but people tell me it is there. Secondly - it appears to me that the Indian army has very strictly stuck to our side of the border and it is very difficult to find tracks from the Indian side going into Bhutan. Of course the possibility is that the Indian army does this carefully to avoid leaving tracks by changing the route every time.

But I can say this much - the Indian army has a big presence all along the Jampheri ridge - which is actually the India-Bhutan border - and area where they need not have a presence at all. They also have a good approach to the peak. But going and occupying the peak is not something India will do without the express permission (or request) of the Bhutanese.

kiranA · Post by **kiranA** » 22 Mar 2018 07:49

The main question regards to doklam is - why is bhutan not raising hell on chinese occupation? If they were to do so India would be compelled to defend it as treaty obligations. Also it is bound to get sympathy from countries like USA and west which may like to play up chinese threat. But they dont. THe probable reason is Bhutan is increasingly under chinese influence and no longer believes indian govt has the will to carry out its treaty obligations. The chankian reason is that India itself is asking Bhutan to stay quiet so it doesnt have the burden of protecting Bhutan and risking enmity with CHina.

But whatever may be the reason - one thing is clear - India-bhutan treaty has gone to the gutters. It is clear India intervened in Doklam because chinese came too close to Indian borders (not because they occupied Bhutan doklam area)and India used the Indo-bhutan treaty as a cover for its transgression in to bhutan border claimed by china. All this is fine till now but why did china come so close to India border ? is it some part of lizard strategy to agress on India ? I believe that is not the reason. China was building the road simply because it thought it can. Indian soldiers never encountered PLA troops in Doklam but lighlt armed or unarmed border construction crew.

While India was right to question chinese construction - India's reaction especially the hyperbolic media coverage initially by the army and latched on to politically by the government actually harmed Indias stand . It humilated and infuriated china and after realizing the faux pas Indian establishment went dead quiet while dragon was breathing fire. Chinese and Indians withdrew but China never admitted wrong doing never gave up the claims of the area. Now the current build makes it appears like an Indian defeat primarily due to Indian grandstanding before that it repelled China from doklam.

All in all is the recent Chinese infra in doklam a security threat to India ? I absolutely dont think so. I believe chinese are building the infra because economically they can and to avoid future doklams. However I do believe India unnecessarily angered china for minimal benefits whatsover. But what is real loss is India losing influence in Bhutan and Nepal.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 22 Mar 2018 08:46

^^ Wow the CPC spokie couldn't have done a better job than kiranA

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Mar 2018 08:48

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/21/media/v ... index.html
China is creating a new giant broadcaster to ensure its voice is heard loud and clear around the world.
Voice of China, as the new outlet will be known internationally, will be formed by combining three mammoth state-run national networks: China Central Television (CCTV), China National Radio and China Radio International. It will employ more than 14,000 people.

The merger was revealed in a Communist Party document on a sprawling government reorganization program, championed by President Xi Jinping to reinforce the party's absolute control in all aspects of state governance.

State news agency Xinhua released the document Wednesday after it was approved by China's rubber-stamp parliament.

With echos of the Voice of America radio service created by the US government during World War II, Voice of China is tasked with "propagating the party's theories, directions, principles and policies" as well as "telling good China stories," according to the document.

It will be under the direct control of the party's central propaganda department.

kiranA · Post by **kiranA** » 22 Mar 2018 09:28

Kashi wrote:^^ Wow the CPC spokie couldn't have done a better job than kiranA

Could you be more specific where you think I am speaking like CPC. CPC claims that Doklam is chinese area I never said that.

My problem is it is very hard to rationalize India's stance.

It is clear China occupied Doklam and India has treaty obligation to Bhutan. And Bhutan has its own responsibility to defend it soverignity. but both dont do it. Neither Bhutan nor India drag china to UN for its occupation or raise heat on china.

If India defacto acknowledges Chinese control over Doklam than India transgression in to Doklam is certainly an affront to chinese sovereignity and is not justifiable for India.

So which is India stance ? It is very confusing. INdia needs to pick one clear stance. Ideally it needs to be first one. India needs to take china to cleaners for occupying Doklam in UN or every international platform available to India. If not then acknowledge it and use India's acknowledgement as leverage to get Chinese do our bidding in some area. Present reactive stance of India gets it all cons and none of the benefits.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Mar 2018 09:44

In these days of Google - blabbering without basic research is what I accuse some of our "strategic experts" and lay public alike
https://idsa.in/resources/documents/Ind ... reaty.2007
Nothing about "defending Bhutan" which is as much a bogey as "India sees Tibet as buffer state" or "Maldives is under Indian sphere of influence". Belief is a personal thing - so I will stick to facts. One is allowed to believe fiction though.

India will not willy nilly enter Bhutan without Bhutan's specific consent and request. Even in Doklam Indian troops intervened just as the Chinese were about to breach Indian territory.

idsa.in
India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

The Indian-Bhutan Friendship Treaty, which was signed in New Delhi on 8th February 2007, has come into force following the exchange of Instruments of Ratification between the two governments in Thimphu on 2nd March 2007

INDIA-BHUTAN FRIENDSHIP TREATY

The Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the Kingdom of Bhutan:

Reaffirming their respect for each other's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity;

Recalling the historical relations that have existed between our two countries;

Recognizing with deep satisfaction the manner in which these relations have evolved and matured over the years into a model of good neighbourly relations;

Being fully committed to further strengthening this enduring and mutually beneficial relationship based on genuine goodwill and friendship, shared interests, and close understanding and cooperation;

Desiring to clearly reflect this exemplary relationship as it stands today; And having decided, through mutual consent, to update the 1949 Treaty relating to the promotion of, and fostering the relations of friendship and neighbourliness between India and Bhutan;

Have agreed as follows:

Article 1

There shall be perpetual peace and friendship between India and Bhutan.

Article 2

In keeping with the abiding ties of close friendship and cooperation between Bhutan and India, the Government of the Kingdom of Bhutan and the Government of the Republic of India shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.

Article 3

There shall, as heretofore, be free trade and commerce between the territories of the Government of Bhutan and the Government of India. Both the Governments shall provide full cooperation and assistance to each other in the matter of trade and commerce.

Article 4

The Government of India agrees that the Government of Bhutan shall be free to import, from or through India into Bhutan, whatever arms, ammunition, machinery, warlike material or stores as may be required or desired for the strength and welfare of Bhutan, and that this arrangement shall hold good for all time as long as the Government of India is satisfied that the intentions of the Government of Bhutan are friendly and that there is no danger to India from such importations. The Government of Bhutan agrees that there shall be no export of such arms, ammunition and materials outside Bhutan either by the Government of Bhutan or by private individuals.

Article 5

The Government of Bhutan and the Government of India agree that Bhutanese subjects residing in Indian territories shall have equal justice with Indian subjects, and that Indian subjects residing in Bhutan shall have equal justice with the subjects of the Government of Bhutan.

Article 6

The extradition of persons wanted by either state for crimes and for unlawful activities affecting their security shall be in keeping with the extradition agreements between the two countries.

Article 7

The Government of Bhutan and the Government of India agree to promote cultural exchanges and cooperation between the two countries. These shall be extended to such areas as education, health, sports, science and technology.

Article 8

The Government of Bhutan and the Government of India agree to continue to consolidate and expand their economic cooperation for mutual and longterm benefit.

Article 9

Any differences and disputes arising in the interpretation and application of this Treaty shall be settled bilaterally by negotiations in a spirit of trust and understanding in consonance with the historically close ties of friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation that form the bedrock of Bhutan-India relations.

Article 10

This Treaty shall come into force upon the exchange of Instruments of Ratification by the two Governments which shall take place in Thimphu within one month of the signing of this Treaty.

The Treaty shall continue in force in perpetuity unless terminated or modified by mutual consent.

In witness whereof, the undersigned being duly authorized thereto by their respective Governments, have signed this Treaty.

Done at New Delhi on the Eighth Day of February Two Thousand and Seven, in two originals each in Hindi, Dzongkha and English languages, each text being equally authentic. However, in case of difference, the English text shall prevail.

For the Government of For the Government of
The Republic of India the Kingdom of Bhutan
Sd/- Sd/-
(Pranab Mukherjee) (H.R.H.Trongsa Penlop Jigme
Minister of External Affairs Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck)
The Crown Prince

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Mar 2018 09:50

Singha wrote:http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/21/media/v ... index.html
China is creating a new giant broadcaster to ensure its voice is heard loud and clear around the world.
Voice of China, as the new outlet will be known internationally, will be formed by combining three mammoth state-run national networks: China Central Television (CCTV), China National Radio and China Radio International. It will employ more than 14,000 people.

The merger was revealed in a Communist Party document on a sprawling government reorganization program, championed by President Xi Jinping to reinforce the party's absolute control in all aspects of state governance.

State news agency Xinhua released the document Wednesday after it was approved by China's rubber-stamp parliament.

With echos of the Voice of America radio service created by the US government during World War II, Voice of China is tasked with "propagating the party's theories, directions, principles and policies" as well as "telling good China stories," according to the document.

It will be under the direct control of the party's central propaganda department.

Maybe this is aimed at the US. But for many decades China operated Hindi and regional language services to target India. (as did the US and UK) In the days of shortwave radios there were also strong Chinese jamming signals to cut off Indian radio. Of course we were jamming them too so a loud "brrrrrnnnnnnnnn" was a common sound to be heard on shortwave radio

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Mar 2018 09:57

kiranA wrote: All in all is the recent Chinese infra in doklam a security threat to India ? I absolutely dont think so. I believe chinese are building the infra because economically they can and to avoid future doklams.

Many of our strategic experts - including Brahm Chellaney whose word you claimed to swear by a couple of days ago don't seem to agree with this statement - and he shows that he too has not read the document I have posted above. All in all I see a bunch of people blurting out unresearched rhetoric and not being able to stick to what they say for more than a few hours at a time

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Brah ... -Himalayas

Doklam thus illustrates that while India may be content with a tactical win, China has the perseverance and guile to win at the strategic level. Camouflaging offense as defense, China hews to ancient military theorist Sun Tzu's advice, "The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy." As Sun Tzu said, "All warfare is based on deception."

India tried for months to obfuscate the PLA's increasing control of Doklam so as not to dilute the "victory" it had sold to its public. Even as commercially available satellite images showed China's rapidly expanding military infrastructure in Doklam, India's foreign ministry tried pulling the wool over the public's eyes by repeatedly saying there were "no new developments at the faceoff site or its vicinity," located at the plateau's southern edge. Meanwhile, China continued to build permanent military structures and forward deploy troops across much of Doklam.

This month, Indian Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman grudgingly admitted China has constructed helipads and other military structures in Doklam so as to "maintain" troop deployments even in winter. Previously, there were no force deployments or permanent military structures on the uninhabited plateau, which was visited by nomadic shepherds and Bhutanese and Chinese mobile patrols other than in the harsh winter.