Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Anoop
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

Is it true that Chinese moves have been inwards? They laid the groundwork for this Cold War 2.0 through a massive colonization campaign around the world masquerading as BRI. It is a tactic right out of Britain's 250 year old playbook.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

Anoop wrote:Is it true that Chinese moves have been inwards? They laid the groundwork for this Cold War 2.0 through a massive colonization campaign around the world masquerading as BRI. It is a tactic right out of Britain's 250 year old playbook.
Makes the contrast since the start of CW2 even more obvious, doesn't it? The emphasis, at least it seems to me, has shifted massively from outwardly directed initiatives like the BRI to inwardly directed initiatives like tackling debt, monopolies, etc.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

DavidD wrote:Makes the contrast since the start of CW2 even more obvious, doesn't it? The emphasis, at least it seems to me, has shifted massively from outwardly directed initiatives like the BRI to inwardly directed initiatives like tackling debt, monopolies, etc.
Well, that is also the natural i.e. expected order of events, no? I mean, an "internal" response by the West would not be appropriate to counter the BRI and associated Chinese influence, except to the point of reducing their supply chain dependence on the PRC. The West has two choices- (a) limit Chinese ability to keep lending to countries, by limiting its economic growth or (b) substitute it's own version of the BRI with more favorable loans, to draw countries away from Chinese influence. The second option is economically expensive and allows the recipient countries to play one bloc against the other. The first option is less expensive from a cash flow budgeting point of view and has the added benefit of limiting Chinese growth over the longer term, so it seems the natural choice.

On the other hand, an "external" response by China is superfluous at this stage, having already accomplished their objectives of getting critical footholds across the major trade routes, as well as sources of energy. They have still pursued an external strategy via RCEP and by applying to join the newer version of the TPP. But the major focus is to handle the internal problems of slowing economy, food grain shortage from locust infestation and floods and domestic unrest from housing default, electricity shortage etc.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

David, one question for you. In my interactions with expatriate Chinese people from the mainland, almost without exception, they believe that economic prosperity has been a worthwhile trade for lack of political freedom. These are people who have spanned the Tiananmen crackdown. They are all professionals, and all of them with graduate degrees from the US. Why do you think the feeling is so unanimous? It's difficult to believe that not one has a contrarian view, despite having lived in the US and seen that political freedom and economic prosperity are not mutually exclusive.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

So, it is

Code: Select all

Friday    38
Saturday  39
Sunday    16
Monday    52
Will the package size, mix and the maneuvers of PLAAF increase in complexity leading to a crescendo on the 10th of October, the National Day of the Republic of China? I bet.

In my opinion, October 10th is an apter day to celebrate by the Chinese because it identifies the day that the revolution against the alien Manchus - who really were the cause for the Century of Humiliation - was born and led to the abolition of Imperialism and creation of a Republic instead. The Mainland Chinese celebrate October 1 instead, the day when Mao declared PRC.

Here RoC must be careful with these air intrusions because in Ladakh, under the guise of a regular exercise, the Chinese surreptitiously moved their military that led to the intrusion, counter-assault and all the tension. China is targeting Pratas and if it occupied that, it would be difficult to evict them. Fait accompli.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Atulya P »

Anoopji, if I may. While the economy is booming, nobody cares about political freedom except the sidelined politicians (in any case they turn AWOL) & oppressed Tibetans and Uyghurs. As long as their toast is buttered, its not a surprise that Hans unanimously put economic boom over political freedom. They have not seen the downside of manipulated economy yet, wait till the shit hits the fan and poll the same population again.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Pratyush »



I was listening to this podcast early morning and was thinking about what leverage the PRC will have is most of the African states that are currently in debt to China decided not to honour those debt obligations.

What can PRC do I order to recover those debts.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush wrote:I was listening to this podcast early morning and was thinking about what leverage the PRC will have is most of the African states that are currently in debt to China decided not to honour those debt obligations.

What can PRC do I order to recover those debts.
Most countries in the world depend upon imports from China of various commodities.

The Chinese launch an 'Immediate Punishment' program to retaliate and secure their interests. The stoppage of rare-earths to Japan in 2012 after the Chinese fishing trawler was found in Japanese waters and seized by the Japanese Coast Guard made them scurry around the world for the RREs.

The BRI conditions are opaque and come with a condition that the host nation cannot reveal them. They are also subjected to Chinese courts' jurisdiction which China cosmetically agreed to change to international arbitration at Singapore, for example. In any case, there is so much corruption that so long as those corrupt leaders continue in power in these African nations, there is no chance of a backlash. Challengers can also be handled the same way, China would think.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Pratyush »

Thanks for your insights.

So to conclude, an inability to pay the loan amount can result in PRC taking over assets from the defaulting country. Just like that Sri Lanka port.

I guess it's new age of colonialism.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

Biden has announced a rival program to BRI called B3W some months ago. Nothing has been heard since. Understandable since they've been busy running from Afghanistan and backstabbing France.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Pratyush »

At this point in time if Biden or any member of the current democratic party member says water is wet. I will not trust them.

Compared to these people Barak Obama is a genius.

I never thought I would ever say that in my life time.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

Anoop wrote:
DavidD wrote:Makes the contrast since the start of CW2 even more obvious, doesn't it? The emphasis, at least it seems to me, has shifted massively from outwardly directed initiatives like the BRI to inwardly directed initiatives like tackling debt, monopolies, etc.
Well, that is also the natural i.e. expected order of events, no? I mean, an "internal" response by the West would not be appropriate to counter the BRI and associated Chinese influence, except to the point of reducing their supply chain dependence on the PRC. The West has two choices- (a) limit Chinese ability to keep lending to countries, by limiting its economic growth or (b) substitute it's own version of the BRI with more favorable loans, to draw countries away from Chinese influence. The second option is economically expensive and allows the recipient countries to play one bloc against the other. The first option is less expensive from a cash flow budgeting point of view and has the added benefit of limiting Chinese growth over the longer term, so it seems the natural choice.

On the other hand, an "external" response by China is superfluous at this stage, having already accomplished their objectives of getting critical footholds across the major trade routes, as well as sources of energy. They have still pursued an external strategy via RCEP and by applying to join the newer version of the TPP. But the major focus is to handle the internal problems of slowing economy, food grain shortage from locust infestation and floods and domestic unrest from housing default, electricity shortage etc.
Why wouldn't an internal response by the west be appropriate? Would the average American, for example, benefit more by making America more competitive, or making China less competitive? Would the world, particularly the BRI targets, benefit more from two superpowers competing to invest in them, or from becoming collateral damage in a destructive cold war? Would a hypothetical trillion dollars spent on slowing down China be more effective or a trillion dollars spent on improving the west?

To this vein, I actually like what Biden has been trying to do. It seems that externally, he's trying to tone down a bit on attacks on China's relative strength, which is trade, while focusing on China's relative weakness, which is security. The AUKUS is an example of the latter, while recent comments from the US re: the futility of trying to change China and the utility of improving the US itself. That leads to the second point, which is that his external moves are being overshadowed by his massive $3.5 trillion internal agenda, even if the international media is focusing on the flashier external moves. Like with Xi's moves, the end result will depend on the execution by each leader, but I think each leader's strategy of focusing on the strengths externally (e.g. RCEP/TPP, AUKUS/Quad) while putting the greater emphasis on internal issues is correct.

I'm a big believer in that great nations fall from within, not from without. I think who comes up on top in this competition will depend on how well each leader's internal agenda is executed, and that'll hold true for whoever comes after Xi and Biden as well.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by chetak »

Pratyush wrote:At this point in time if Biden or any member of the current democratic party member says water is wet. I will not trust them.

Compared to these people Barak Obama is a genius.

I never thought I would ever say that in my life time.
obama is the guy propping up biden and is the puppet master.

Don't get taken in by his practised charm
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Lohit »

Taiwan president warns of 'catastrophic' consequences if it falls to China

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-10-05/

Taiwan falling to China would trigger "catastrophic" consequences for peace in Asia, President Tsai Ing-wen wrote in a piece for Foreign Affairs published on Tuesday, and if threatened Taiwan will do whatever it takes to defend itself.

Taiwan, which is claimed by China as its sovereign territory, has faced a massive stepping up of pressure from Beijing since Friday, with 148 Chinese air force aircraft flying into Taiwan's air defence zone over a four-day period.

Tsai said as countries increasingly recognise the threat China's Communist Party poses, they should understand the value of working with the island.

"And they should remember that if Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system. It would signal that in today's global contest of values, authoritarianism has the upper hand over democracy," Tsai wrote.

"Taiwan, by virtue of both its very existence and its continued prosperity, represents at once an affront to the narrative and an impediment to the regional ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party."

-----

Let me first begin with some rona-dhona and say its unbelievable how pusillanimous our Taiwan policy has been - given how open China on the other hand has been planting and propping up a dozen proxies inside and outside our desh.

Moving on, there are two straight-forward contours that form for any invasion and its implications,

1. Blitzkreig: If Taiwan is conquered in a "two-day" war, and we see a "dragon incarnate" - that would truly mean China going up the next level of global power, exceeding the US even. A Chinese "warning" - be it to Japs over Senkakus, India over Arunachal or Pinoys over Sacrboroughs - would cause dhoti shiver in earnest. All nations would do cost-benefit of appeasing China and how benefits far outweigh the costs imposed by a Chinese strike. Now it would entirely depend on China whether they use this shroud of fear to have their way across the world or over-extend like the Nazis did and get the rest of the world united against them.

2. Iraq: Taiwan and its people put up Stalingrad levels of resistance and create a quagmire for China. RoW perhaps will be able to slowly gather the cajones to support Taiwan.

I don't see the "Iraq" scenario playing out. Neither are the Taiwanese people so antithetic to China nor do city-dwelling white collar workers have the fighting grit of Russian peasants. When shit hits the fan, they will ask their Pres to surrender and preserve their economy, foregoing political freedoms if that is the cost. So I dare say, a Taiwan invasion and "Great" Chin victory seem quite plausible. In fact all factors indicate that the time for China to strike is now.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

In the last few months, Japan had openly talked about how Taiwan's security was important for its own security and how it would have to fight if Taiwan was attacked. These have come from their Dy. PM and also the Defence Minister. Not the kind of words that we are used to hearing from Japan before. The increased air activity by the Chinese in recent days and now the warning from Ms. Tsai really show that there is a lot of apprehension as to the true nature of the Chinese activities. Something may be afoot. Or, the usual Chinese tactic of wearing down the enemy.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Pashupatastra »

US based military strategists showing the typical "not my fight" topi shivering and maybe relinquishing the pre-eminent power status of US :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -all-costs
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by KLNMurthy »

Pashupatastra wrote:US based military strategists showing the typical "not my fight" topi shivering and maybe relinquishing the pre-eminent power status of US :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -all-costs
This is what a lifafa article looks like.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Rudradev »

Lifafa Article #2
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... us/620294/
Consensus Isn’t Always a Good Thing

Dissent is prevalent in Washington. When it comes to China policy, disagreement might help. :shock:

By Yasmeen Serhan
Can hardly believe the argument being made here. US political parties, already perilously divided on many issues, should strive to become even MORE divided on the issue of China policy (for whose benefit, exactly?)

Something has spooked PRC and they've begun to activate their lifafa writers in panic mode. This has led to their agendas becoming exposed very transparently.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Rudradev »

This Yasmeen Sehran is another of Nahal Toosi's ilk (Iranian expat writer and "international relations expert" who has trotted out conveniently-timed "human rights" hit pieces against India and Modi on several occasions to date). These Iranians have emerged from nowhere to become frequent contributors to mainstream US publications like The Atlantic & Politico.

I think the article I just linked to above gives the clearest indication yet of who is paying to put them there.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Rudradev »

Lifafa Article #3.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/0 ... wan-515142

Much more subtle. But sneakily diverts the blame for China's recent Taiwan Straits provocations to America's doorstep. If the US wasn't continuing Yeevil Trump's jingoistic policies of keeping up the trade sanctions & SCS FONOPs, maybe poor China wouldn't feel so threatened. But because they do, they have no choice but to menace Taiwan's airspace.

The spin & excuse-making are at the level of Pakistan apologia from the height of the 1990s.

One of the writers here, Lara Seligman, previously wrote a hit piece "confirming that India had lied" about shooting down the Pakistani F16 in 2019.

There is a whole stable of these vermin and they're all being activated right now to produce piously introspective pieces recommending US policy paralysis vis a vis China.

Maybe the Chinese economy is in bigger trouble than we think. And they (or at least Xi Jinping) is not too confident of surviving a conflict.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Rudradev »

Aaaand here's Lifafa Article #4.

The Chyeptas are desperate!

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ht/620244/
Where Biden Agrees With Trump
The Biden administration has been more skeptical of free trade than many predicted, and remains hawkish toward China. :(( :(( :((

By Annie Lowrey
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

DavidD wrote:Would the average American, for example, benefit more by making America more competitive, or making China less competitive?
This is a strawman because given that the contest is bipolar, making China less competitive IS the same as making America/West more competitive.
Would the world, particularly the BRI targets, benefit more from two superpowers competing to invest in them, or from becoming collateral damage in a destructive cold war?
This is an amusing remark. Is China's BRI an attempt to benefit the world'?? :D . Then why should the US/Western counter-attempt be more altruistic? More precisely, the US/West attempt is to ensure that the Chinese economic engine that is powered by the world's consumption - largely the Western world's - is not used to undercut the Western political and military influence. This is a fundamental difference from the previous Cold War - there was no economic linkage between the US and USSR, so both systems lavished largesse on the rest of the world. If the same model were to be applied now, it would be the US funding its own demise. So it makes sense not to try the bribing game this time around.
Would a hypothetical trillion dollars spent on slowing down China be more effective or a trillion dollars spent on improving the west?
Again, a strawman that assumes that one has to be at the exclusion of the other. The US has the ability to run up a larger debt to GDP ratio given that it prints the reserve currency. So the US can do both. It also doesn't have as intense a societal pressure to keep the economic engine running in order to keep the population from turning on the CCP.
That leads to the second point, which is that his external moves are being overshadowed by his massive $3.5 trillion internal agenda, even if the international media is focusing on the flashier external moves.
Now I am confused...you started with the claim that the US action is primarily external in contrast to China's internal focus, but now you say that the US internal action is more impactful than its external one??

Just so that I remain consistent with my argument - the US agenda on sustainable energy spending etc is driven by the Democratic party's beliefs; it would happen whether there was a Chinese threat or not. In the same vein, if it were a Republican government, such a spending would likely not occur.
but I think each leader's strategy of focusing on the strengths externally (e.g. RCEP/TPP, AUKUS/Quad) while putting the greater emphasis on internal issues is correct.
Has Biden reversed the sanctions on China that Trump had slapped? There has been some dilution on US persons trading in securities of Chinese Military Companies, but otherwise it seems that the Trump era sanctions are still holding. So no real walk-back on the attempt to limit China's trade advantage, correct?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

From this article:
Doing so will allow the United States to emerge on the other side of a China/Taiwan war with our global military and economic power intact.

That’s not to suggest we stand passively aside and let China run over Taiwan with impunity. The most effective course of action for Washington would be to condemn China in the strongest possible terms, lead a global movement that will enact crippling sanctions against Beijing, and make them an international pariah. China’s pain wouldn’t be limited to economics, however.
Will that US game-plan work??

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-chart ... ctors.html
TSMC accounted for 54% of total foundry revenue globally last year, TrendForce data showed....

“So TSMC, if you just have a look at market share, I believe manufactures around 50% of all semiconductors in the world. And I think that still understates how important it is, because these are some of the most advanced chips out there,” said Wang.

--But China’s tech fight with the previous U.S. administration is holding back its largest chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, or SMIC.

“The problem that SMIC is in now, the dilemma, is the U.S. government has put them on the entity list,” he said. “But the bigger picture is that SMIC has been cut off, at least for the moment, from acquiring the really cutting-edge equipment it needs from ASML, which is a Dutch company.”
https://www.piie.com/publications/polic ... -sanctions
Most companies forsake business in countries targeted by US sanctions rather than risk losing access to the US market. China is now adopting new blocking rules to nullify the effect of foreign sanctions or other measures “unjustifiably applied” against Chinese nationals. The new rules allow Chinese government officials to issue orders prohibiting Chinese companies from complying with foreign sanctions, essentially forcing them to choose between access to the Chinese market and access to the US market, with penalties possible in either direction. For decades weak foreign pushback allowed unilateral sanctions to remain a relatively powerful tool of US economic statecraft, but the Chinese blocking rules signal a major change to the status quo.
So, if the PRC conquers Taiwan and controls 50% of the global chip manufacture (being the high-end products), and under its law prohibit its trade with the US, how will the US retain it's eminent military and economic power??
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by yensoy »

KLNMurthy wrote:
Pashupatastra wrote:US based military strategists showing the typical "not my fight" topi shivering and maybe relinquishing the pre-eminent power status of US :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -all-costs
This is what a lifafa article looks like.
'
He is a kadi ninda kind of guy
The most effective course of action for Washington would be to condemn China in the strongest possible terms, lead a global movement that will enact crippling sanctions against Beijing, and make them an international pariah.
The biggest loser in case of Taiwan falling over will be the US. The American shield securing peace in the Pacific will be undone, and with it the flow of money propping up its economy by the unending purchase of US treasuries, not to speak of military equipment. Japan and SoKo will go nuclear and generally all hell will break loose.

BTW, PLA's victory is not a given if the Chinese suffer significant casualties.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Lohit »

China could be ready to mount a 'full-scale' invasion of Taiwan by 2025, island's defense minister says

So it seems, in Taiwanese calculations, invasion threat is immediate but not imminent. Or at least that is the public posture they would like to hold.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/06/asia ... rce=twCNNi

China could be capable of mounting a "full-scale" invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island's defense minister said Wednesday -- days after record numbers of Chinese warplanes flew into Taiwan's air defense zone.

"With regards to staging an attack on Taiwan, they currently have the ability. But [China] has to pay the price," Chiu Kuo-cheng, the defense minister, told Taiwanese journalists on Wednesday. But he said that by 2025, that price will be lower -- and China will be able to mount a "full-scale" invasion.

At a parliament meeting Wednesday, Chiu described cross-strait military tensions as "the most serious" in more than 40 years since he joined the military, Taiwan's official Central News Agency (CNA) reported. At the meeting, the Taiwan military submitted a report to lawmakers saying China's anti-intervention and blockade capabilities around the Taiwan Strait will become mature by 2025, according to CNA.

The lawmakers also reviewed an $8.6 billion special defense budget for homemade weapons, including missiles and warships.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Lohit »

Biden and Xi explore 'recoupling' as advisers meet in Zurich

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... -in-Zurich

National security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Switzerland to meet China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi, a sign that the two sides are seeking to lower the temperature after years of rising tensions.

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Chinese diplomats have informed their G-20 counterparts that Xi does not currently plan to attend the summit in Italy. But XI is planning to visit the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Senegal in the first week of November. The potential trip to the African forum could provide an opening for a Biden-Xi Rome summit (or Biden visits Senegal).

FCOAC will be attended by top representatives from over 50 nations and is viewed as an event of prime importance by Beijing. The Chinese leader is preparing to make a trip to Dakar but has not committed to a summit in Rome.

The forum has been a showcase of China's convening power. "More African leaders choose to attend FOCAC than the U.N. General Assembly, the world's largest summit, in 2018, 51 African presidents attended the FOCAC summit compared to just 27 at the General Assembly.

If Xi attends FOCAC in Dakar, it may contrast China's commitment with that of Biden, who chose not to meet with any African leader during the U.N. General Assembly.

Eight months into his presidency, and after a bruising exit from Afghanistan, Biden is seeking a new phase of "relentless diplomacy." His trade representative Katherine Tai told the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies on Monday that the administration will be looking for a "recoupling" with China rather than decoupling.

----

Xi and Biden also spoke last evening and which could be a build-up for a meet.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

In any compromise between a democracy and a dictatorship, democracy loses, dictatorship gains.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

SSridhar wrote: China is targeting Pratas and if it occupied that, it would be difficult to evict them. Fait accompli.
Sridhar, do you think the Pratas islands will be used as a staging ground for a later invasion of Taiwan, or is it meant to be a demonstration of PRC intent and a signal to Taiwan to submit? The likely reaction from Taiwan could also be to beef up its defenses, so a signal per se may backfire.

It seems unlikely that any third party will militarily intervene on Taiwan's side and unclear whether the Taiwanese themselves will choose futile resistance over a negotiated surrender with cosmetic sops, that of course will go the Hong Kong way.
Last edited by Anoop on 06 Oct 2021 17:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

The forum has been a showcase of China's convening power. "More African leaders choose to attend FOCAC than the U.N. General Assembly, the world's largest summit, in 2018, 51 African presidents attended the FOCAC summit compared to just 27 at the General Assembly.
This essentially is putting the Western world on notice that there is a alternate power pole. Skipping G20 where he is one among equals and instead attending this is a clear indication of where Xi believes the power and opportunity is going to concentrate.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

Anoop wrote:
SSridhar wrote: China is targeting Pratas and if it occupied that, it would be difficult to evict them. Fait accompli.
Sridhar, do you think the Pratas islands will be used as a staging ground for a later invasion of Taiwan, or is it meant to be a demonstration of PRC intent and a signal to Taiwan to submit?
Anoop, it is all about the choke points. Today, PLAN would find it very difficult for its SSNs and SSBNs to breach the First Island Chain and go into the Western Pacific because they will have to cross the Tsushima, Tsugaru, Osumi, Okinawa, Miyako chokepoints in Japan. Pratas overlooks the Luzon Straits, especially the Bashi Channel part of the Luzon Straits, another chokepoint through which PLAN can move to the Pacific.

Once Pratas is captured then China will militarize that as it is a regular island (though small) unlike the reefs and rocks that it has militarized already. It will also claim 200 nm EEZ from the baseline of this island, further restrict the ADIZ of Taiwan, and harass other vessels plying on what they consider as High Seas. Capturing an uninhabited & lightly-defended Pratas would not be a big deal for PRC. It may be PRC's calculation also that the US would not come to defend Taiwan in this case. Might be a miscalculation by PRC. Japan is very clear about the dangers of losing the Taiwan Straits to China.

Besides, the other important point is that unlike the US naval strategy of its SSBNs and SSNs freely roaming the open seas, the PLAN cannot do so because its boats are not silent and lack the operational skills required. They cannot dive deep either. Also, it does not have the I4SR capabilities of the USN. So, it follows the Soviet-style Bastion way of positioning its SSBNs. Guangdong, Hainan, Paracel & Spratly are the likely Bastions. From that perspective, Pratas becomes important too to stop American (and in future Australian) SSNs from entering the Indo-China Sea through this route and hunting down the PLAN underwater assets.

Last, but not the least, Pratas also overlooks the Taiwan Strait.

Interestingly, a few months' back, France announced the successful mission of its SSN in the ICS, an unusual claim of a mission which are usually not advertised !
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by nam »

My view is thaf if the Taiwanese think they cannot defend themselves against a Chini attack, they will just give up and merge.

I doubt the regular Taiwanese have a stomach for a fight over enjoying the rich life style. Any anti-CCP leader will escape in to exile and the regular mango Taiwanese would prefer to merge and make money.

If China was dirt poor, we might have seen a fight. Now with enough money, I doubt there will be a fight.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by nam »

I feel the US will ask Taiwan to merge. This way it doesn't need to sanction China and the supply chain will all okay.

I won't be surprised if this happens.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Suraj »

nam wrote:I feel the US will ask Taiwan to merge. This way it doesn't need to sanction China and the supply chain will all okay.

I won't be surprised if this happens.
Asking them to merge and them wanting to merge are two different things. In the past, they didn't want to do that because of political differences between CPC in Beijing and the KMT in Taiwan. Now the younger gen in Taiwan - typified by the ruling party - don't see themselves as Chinese but a distinct group.

What might instead happen is a nuclear umbrella involving Japan and Taiwan, two countries who are politically and culturally close.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Dilbu »

What about chip manufacturing and critical technology that will be captured by China in that case? Will US allow that? May be they should shift those industries lock, stock and barrel to Yogi's UP as a strategic depth operation. :mrgreen:
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

Dilbu wrote:What about chip manufacturing and critical technology that will be captured by China in that case? Will US allow that? May be they should shift those industries lock, stock and barrel to Yogi's UP as a strategic depth operation. :mrgreen:
They are already limiting TSMC access to the latest ASML machines

If that was not enough one General has projected full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2026 that is 5 years I would give it a year , China has an opportunity before the world recovers from covid.

I am getting quite irritated by some western official coming to dilli saying India is central left right etc to. Their policies.. stupid a$$es don't know their right from left hand

China's Taiwan takeover is just a matter of time not if.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

nam wrote:I feel the US will ask Taiwan to merge. This way it doesn't need to sanction China and the supply chain will all okay.

I won't be surprised if this happens.
They are too spineless even to say that., they just wont respond in time., or send a token force of show far away for some d!$k waving show, well out of harms way. America is utterly lost with biden biding his time out , just a fading power trying to keep pretences with all sorts of bombastic words and bravado. Anyone finds interesting that American secret service agents abroad are now hunted down and eliminated in increasing numbers now?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Rudradev »

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/0 ... ies-515188

See what all gyan this NATO Head, Jens Stoltenberg, has to offer about the West's relations with China.
NATO head: China is not an enemy :roll:
“We don't regard China as an adversary or an enemy. We need to engage with China on important issues such as climate change — there's no way to reduce emissions enough in the world without also including China. We need to discuss arms control with China. So, we need to engage politically with China. At the same time, we see the rise of China. We see that China soon will have the biggest economy in the world. They already have the second largest defense budget. They have the largest navy already. They are investing heavily in new modern capabilities, including nuclear capabilities. They are leading in the use of many new disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence — also integrating that into new very advanced weapons systems. And we see a much more assertive China, for instance, in the South China Sea. All of this matters for our security and therefore NATO has to respond to that.”

Jens Stoltenberg on the future of arms agreements with Russia and China
”We have seen the demise of some very important arms control agreements over the last years, mainly because of violations by Russia :roll: — something called the INF Treaty, which banned all intermediate range weapon systems or missiles... to make progress on the arms control agenda... of course, China has to be included because China is a global power and with a global role also comes global responsibilities. And therefore, we are working to find ways to include China in arms control.”

Jens Stoltenberg on why the U.S.-Australia submarine deal is still a win for NATO :shock:
“I understand that France is disappointed. At the same time, NATO allies agreed as late as June this year at the NATO summit in Brussels with President Biden and all the other leaders that we need to work more closely with what we call the Asia-Pacific partners."
With friends like this Cheeee-youth, who needs enemies?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

Well it looks likely Ameerica will go the soviet way if they try to match tank for tank and ship for ship vs China !! .. so Naatoo is going up in smoke ..they are soon gonna be jobless playing second fiddle..and trying not to offend the new bully on the block instead taking it on an old enemy who is down and yet ironically should have made friends with to stand up to China!! .. but its the pakiness of amrika in full show., cut the nose to spite the face !
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Rudradev »

The Chinese want to reclaim Taiwan without firing a shot. That's what all the buzzing of Taiwanese ADIZ is about.

The idea is to scare Taiwanese corporations (many of whom have huge investments and business interests in PRC) with the spectre of wartime financial ruin, so that they bring mercantilist pressure on the Taiwanese government to agree to an Anschluss. This may also manifest itself in political influence campaigns through the opposition Kuomintang (which leans towards collaboration with Beijing).

PRC can wait a long time to swallow Taiwan. It has already waited 71 years. It is simply not in Beijing's interest to risk a conflict in which their planes, ships, missiles, and everything else they parade before the world are actually put to the test in the full glare of the media spotlight. Not to mention the risk of incurring massive PLA casualties-- the Taiwan Strait is not Galwan where they can quietly bury a hundred and thirty bodies while arresting those rare bloggers who raise troublesome questions.

If it comes to a shooting war with Taiwan, regardless of the outcome, Beijing will have already lost-- it will already have experienced a reversal relative to the position it stands in today. To win it will have to bring overwhelming force, and there are serious political costs to bear in the aftermath of that. This is all independent of whether, and to what extent, the US and its Pacific allies become involved at all.

The PLA is much more likely to pick its first kinetic fight somewhere that it knows very well it can achieve an easy military victory (compare the United States' expeditions in Grenada, Panama, or Kuwait during the late '80s- early '90s). Taiwan is ruled out. India as well. Even Vietnam is doubtful. Beijing is more likely to try and make an exhibition of beating up somebody hapless, like the Philippines, in an air/naval confrontation to show its mettle.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

Rudradev wrote:The Chinese want to reclaim Taiwan without firing a shot. That's what all the buzzing of Taiwanese ADIZ is about.

The idea is to scare Taiwanese corporations (many of whom have huge investments and business interests in PRC) with the spectre of financial ruin, so that they bring mercantilist pressure on the Taiwanese government to agree to an Anschluss. This may also manifest itself in political influence campaigns through the opposition Kuomintang (which leans towards collaboration with Beijing).

PRC can wait a long time to swallow Taiwan. .
Maybe PRC can wait but NOT the Pooh ! .. Xi wants his legacy to be "unification" of Taiwan and he sees an opportunity now before the world stages a full recovery from Covid. Once taiwan is done and dusted, the world literally their stage
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