Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Suraj »

DavidD wrote:Here in the Bay Area, it's chock full of bleeding heart liberals, and they all think they've got the interest of the poor and the immigrants in heart. But we also have a huge homeless problem here, because whenever it comes time to put the money where their mouth is, they never vote for housing reforms that would decrease their property values, worsen congestion, and reduce precious water supply to water their trees and lawns.
Eh ? A substantial number of Bay Area Taiwanese-Americans vote Republican, not Democrat. Not crazed Trumpers or overt evangelicals but folks more aligned with Goldwater-era Republicanism. This has been true for decades. If you're going to wade into US politics that way, the Republicans gets have a constituency within the well off sections of Taiwanese, Indian and Korean communities right here in the Bay Area - they are not advocates of NIMBY liberalism.
DavidD wrote:My point is that I look at what people do, not what people say. People lie, sometimes they even fully believe their lies. Most like to think their actions are guided by morality, but in the end, it's money that really matters. This relates to my previous post about why the Chinese are not demanding political reform, because they're making money. Democracy, political freedom, etc. have not been attractive to the world because of what they stand for, but because the countries who espouse them are wealthy. If China can show the world that it's not necessary to have one in order to have the other, opinions will change.
You make a compelling argument about looking at data and not statements, and then proceed to state things that contradict your own claims. E.g. relative wealth - proof of that would be in the form of a very predictable path of warming ties as China grows, which is 180 degrees from where htings are now. In reality, almost all Taiwan Straits crises have to do with some internal issue in Beijing that requires the projection of a strongman image.

Taiwanese were at the forefront of investing in the mainland after Deng opened up. Far from looking down on the mainland, they saw an opportunity before anyone else did, and gained from it. Yet, those very same people have no desire to actually merge. Their kids are vehemently opposed to just the notion that they are 'Chinese' in a nation state sense - they distinguish ethnic identity from the national one just as Singaporeans do.

China, as it usually does, has made its case far worse with the crackdown in HK. This is not because Taiwanese value democracy, but because they value their own system. Their democracy is funny in some ways - their parliamentary melees are legendary. But they have a system, and it works. They see HK has having been offered a deal, and then that deal being openly repudiated. Taiwanese themselves would agree the CKS/CCK authoritarian years were good and preferable for them. Younger Taiwanese today may see mainlanders as ethnic or racial kin, but not co-nationals. As the first and then second generation dies out that will only get more prominent.

While DavidD might trying to finesse around it, Indians should always treat Taiwanese as distinct. Good folks - their culture is a lot closer to Indic cultural norms than mainlanders who retain some vestiges, but have otherwise been societally 'wiped clean' during the Cultural Revolution.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by V_Raman »

The way DavidD is arguing shows basic lack of respect to other ways of life by the Chinese. I guess what they did worked for them - so they can show that and force it on others. Not very dissimilar from the culture of the desert. No wonder they are allies.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by nam »

The comparison between a "success" of Chinese authoritarianism over "failure" of Indian democracy is moot. China is rich not because it is autocratic, it is because it was smart enough to know which side of the bread was buttered.

If China was a true "communist" nation and refused to switch sides in 70's, it would have been a larger North Korea. All authoritarian regime in Asia who have been economically successful, be it Taiwan, SK or Singapore was due to being economically aligned with the US.

India came out of it's "socialist" delusional in 90's and that has helped it tremendously. India is an absolutely chaotic country, with decade long insurgencies. Norm would indicate it is not possible to economically grow such a country, yet it is now the 5th largest GDP in the world!

If India had been smarter by 20 years, it would have been a 10T GDP by now.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

nam
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by nam »

With respect to Taiwan, I will be convinced that US, JP, Taiwan are serious about pushing back on the CCP, when they start degrading the economics of China by pulling back their companies. The current situation is like Infosys, TCS opening up their biggest development center in Pakistan and employing millions of them, while GoI is screaming Pak based terrorist! Till then it is all hot air.

China has managed to tangle these 3 countries in to a money web, which these countries don't want to escape. Taiwanese investment would have been a quid pro quo for China not attacking it. The moment Taiwanese investment dry, CCP is not loosing anything in invading Taiwan.

From US's perspective, if it can set up alternate means of semiconductor & electronics supplies, then Taiwan will hardly matter. Just like Afghanistan. It may not matter what the Taiwanese think, but for all we know CCP could make a deal with the US in return for some sort of G2 world order.

For US the real deal is Japan and we all know it is quite secure.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ManuJ »

The best way to undermine Xi and the Chinese Community Party is to overwhelmingly support the One China policy but at the same time to promote Taiwan's flourishing democracy and free society as the template to follow for One China.

Highlight the glaring differences in the way the two countries' political systems and societies have progressed. Encourage China to learn from its from estranged brother, and to eventually progress towards a democratic system, which will allow for seamless unification and the realization of the One China dream.

There's nothing Xi and the cohorts hate more than being preached to and to being put down vis-a-vis Taiwan.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

nam wrote:The comparison between a "success" of Chinese authoritarianism over "failure" of Indian democracy is moot. China is rich not because it is autocratic, it is because it was smart enough to know which side of the bread was buttered.

If China was a true "communist" nation and refused to switch sides in 70's, it would have been a larger North Korea. All authoritarian regime in Asia who have been economically successful, be it Taiwan, SK or Singapore was due to being economically aligned with the US.

India came out of it's "socialist" delusional in 90's and that has helped it tremendously. India is an absolutely chaotic country, with decade long insurgencies. Norm would indicate it is not possible to economically grow such a country, yet it is now the 5th largest GDP in the world!

If India had been smarter by 20 years, it would have been a 10T GDP by now.
What about all the other democracies, most of which sided with the US? None of them have reached 1st world status unlike SK, Taiwan, etc. The barrier to entry for cutting edge industries is so high that a poor nation really needs to demand sacrifices from much of the populace to subsidize certain industries for decades at a time to get close to parity. That's hard to do in a democracy IMO when everyone every election demands a piece of the pie right now.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Suraj »

The "democracy slows development" is primarily a Chinese construct. China NEEDS something like that to legitimize its methods to its population. We get it, it makes total sense to you. You should stand in front of a mirror and say it as best as you can, because the biggest consumer of this view is you, not any of us. This is a Chinese message for Chinese consumption, not for others. You keep forgetting that.

This 'democracy slows development' argument is a rhetorical head fake. It's one of several constructs the Chinese push by way of legitimizing themselves. Words are cheap, actions matter - DavidD. India is a free system. People have advocated a dictatorship. There's even been a period of one. If we liked it better we'd have kept it.

Don't waste our time with more of this. Chinese don't need to waste time justifying their system to us. You want to do it your way, do it. Doesn't mean anyone else cares. It's just a distraction from the thread topic, beyond the fact that you're trying to impose it on others - Taiwan in this case.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Vayutuvan »

Suraj wrote: There's even been a period of one. If we liked it better we'd have kept it.
Just a small but important point - it was mild compared to Chinese dictatorships till 1971. Even then we rejected it. The would-be dictator was taught a lesson to not take Indian love for democracy too lightly.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Suraj »

This whole democracy stuff is a sidebar used to derail this thread. Please avoid falling for such sophisticated trolling . This is simply a trite argument unchanged in close to half a century as part of indoctrination in China.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

Democracy as in Taiwan is promoting a much wealthier society than China. India’s democracy is more genuine and messier in that citizens as well as politicians have the safety of being corrupt.


At any rate, China is entering a period of circling the drain. Because the economist does not report it, doesn’t mean it’s not happening.


It might be the tortoise and the hare. At least I wouldn’t be surprised. The historical case is of starving India and bounding Pakistan in the 1960s. It’s only because I am a Hindu that I don’t taunt Muslim Pakistan over that. (That’s for zia ulu haq’s progeny).
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by rajpa »

DavidD wrote: I'm not saying democracy doesn't work, and while I do think more authoritarianism works better for developing nations, I think there's more than one way to skin the cat.

Also, I don't like to see things in white and black. Every government has some elements of democracy and some elements of autocracy, same as how every economy has some level of capitalism and socialism. It's up to each country to find the right balance for itself.
China's success was because of Mr Deng opening up their economy by offering SEZs, cheap labour and innumerable economic incentives to the west which just lapped up the economic benefits derived from Chinese social climbing from abject poverty. It was a veritable begging bowl and selling off Chinese ass enmasse that started it all.

Nothing to do with authoritarianism or democracy. More like generic capitalism and greed, plus desperation from the Chinese. The same authoritarian crowd ruled over a really poor China up until the moment Deng came up with a smartass solution. Any democratic country can do the same. It is just that China took the lead and took the gains from the first mover advantage.

When supply chains become more distributed across ASEAN and other geos, China will get knocked down in several areas of manufacturing and trade by other (democratic, capitalist, greedy) competitors.

CCP is conveniently using its current wealthy state of affairs to give itself credit. Infact it is Xi who is doing that in order to keep himself in power. But he is knocking down the same capitalist folks who made China rich.

All in good time, you will be cursing the same authoritarian Cut-Copy-Paste folks.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

China was hardly inventive as in first mover. There were many paradigm cases, from Hong Kong to Korea Malaysia and of course Japan.

It is another case entirely that Indians chose to ape England’s Fabian socialism and shot themselves in the a$$.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquir ... c4ecf4fab5
Removing Xi is how to play it
The only way to avoid a devastating conflict is to facilitate a coup within China’s Communist Party. This is how it could be done.
PAUL MONK, September 18, 2021


Interesting, but all wrong. But it shows the ideas circulating down-under.
Gautam, I didn't find much wrong with what that article espouses.

Palace coup is the last resort. The conditions for that are maturing, IMHO.

If you look at Chinese history, imperial dynasties collapsed whenever they embarked on gargantuan projects such as the Great Wall, Grand Canal, a new Capital, or a great war etc. Xi is doing both on economic and military fronts. The strength of the Chinese economy is extremely doubtful. The idea of 'common prosperity' and 'antitrust laws' seem two fold; one, to get money for the government from the nouveau rich and the other to circumscribe their influence which might be threatening Xi's position. The former shows Government's financial weakness and the latter Xi's insecurity.

Of course, the QUAD increasingly bothers China, no doubt. Initially, Wang Yi called it by various disparaging names - 'an elite clique', 'a small circle', 'sea-foam that will disappear', 'cold-war relic', 'outside powers' etc. But, now he is also constantly asking South Korea whether it intends to join QUAD Plus! The Chinese defence minister warned Bangladesh & Sri Lanka against joining the QUAD. The extensive discussions that Wang Yi had with ASEAN leaders soon after the apex QUAD meeting in March 12 showed its nervousness. China is simultaneously trying to form an 'anti-QUAD' with Russia, Pakistan & Iran.

So far, China has orchestrated 'Nationalism' when it suited its needs against a particular country. For example, on the eve of Xi's first trip to Moscow in c. 2013, or Senkaku nationalization in 2012, or the 2010 Trawler incident off Japan etc. But, it would be a first for a Chinese President to invoke threats from a non-military QUAD group at the National Party Congress in 2022. There could be even questions within the Politburo Standing Committee or even the Politburo as to why China was so friendless and surrounded by hostile neighbours. It could cut both ways for Xi. IMO, if Xi resorts to the QUAD-ruse at the Congress, then he is already on weak grounds.

PS: The one wrong I certainly found was that while the author listed all of Xi's aggression, he didn't mention Ladakh. After all, nobody inflicted such casualty on the PLA, since 1979, as the IA did and he forgot to mention that?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Suraj »

This isn’t the thread to debate relative democracy . Please read the thread topic and avoid being manipulated.

China’s political tumult is the foundation of all the problems here. There’s nothing to do with Indian or Taiwanese democracy in it. China has been at it against Taiwan long before they were democratic.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Dilbu »

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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

Sridharji, the problems I see in this article:
1. Xi is a weak leader who has to constantly fight internal battles and prove himself. Deng was a far better established leader. Compared to other dictators such as Hitler (or even Stalin) for example, Xi does not have a domestic front that is pacified and under his control. If Hitler was removed in 1939, or even in 1942 in a coup, the fate of WWII could have been different. In case of Xi, if he is removed, we might get an unknown person, who might be a strong and capable leader. With this view point, Xi should be encouraged to continue in his path, rather than discouraged.
2. The West can resist Xi in every front it can and hope that he will over extend himself in time, causing such damage that CCP has no option but to replace him. But this type of Western opposition is ongoing right now. Long term economic damage can be carefully planned and executed. This is the least painful way for the West, but also less effective on the insular Chinese leadership. It will take years to work, and a lot of patience will be demanded from the Western powers. The US and the NATO do not seem to be united right now on the Chinese problem.
3. It is not clear how the coup to replace Xi be facilitated by Western powers? Just hoping and wishing that a coup will take place is not going bring about the change. Furthermore, if the West is not involved in this removal, then it has no control over the outcome.
Lastly, coming to the non-mentioning of Ladakh, India has never been important for White Australia. To understand this mentality clearly, check their version of the campaign of Gallipoli. Indian contributions are never acknowledged. Truth be told, Australia is a minor player in this game. The same was the case in WWII. Such articles try to portrait Australia as a military power in Asia. In reality, it has to follow the lead of the US today, just as it had to follow UK in the past.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

SSridhar wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquir ... c4ecf4fab5
Removing Xi is how to play it
The only way to avoid a devastating conflict is to facilitate a coup within China’s Communist Party. This is how it could be done.
PAUL MONK, September 18, 2021


Interesting, but all wrong. But it shows the ideas circulating down-under.
Gautam, I didn't find much wrong with what that article espouses.

Palace coup is the last resort. The conditions for that are maturing, IMHO.

If you look at Chinese history, imperial dynasties collapsed whenever they embarked on gargantuan projects such as the Great Wall, Grand Canal, a new Capital, or a great war etc. Xi is doing both on economic and military fronts. The strength of the Chinese economy is extremely doubtful. The idea of 'common prosperity' and 'antitrust laws' seem two fold; one, to get money for the government from the nouveau rich and the other to circumscribe their influence which might be threatening Xi's position. The former shows Government's financial weakness and the latter Xi's insecurity.

Of course, the QUAD increasingly bothers China, no doubt. Initially, Wang Yi called it by various disparaging names - 'an elite clique', 'a small circle', 'sea-foam that will disappear', 'cold-war relic', 'outside powers' etc. But, now he is also constantly asking South Korea whether it intends to join QUAD Plus! The Chinese defence minister warned Bangladesh & Sri Lanka against joining the QUAD. The extensive discussions that Wang Yi had with ASEAN leaders soon after the apex QUAD meeting in March 12 showed its nervousness. China is simultaneously trying to form an 'anti-QUAD' with Russia, Pakistan & Iran.

So far, China has orchestrated 'Nationalism' when it suited its needs against a particular country. For example, on the eve of Xi's first trip to Moscow in c. 2013, or Senkaku nationalization in 2012, or the 2010 Trawler incident off Japan etc. But, it would be a first for a Chinese President to invoke threats from a non-military QUAD group at the National Party Congress in 2022. There could be even questions within the Politburo Standing Committee or even the Politburo as to why China was so friendless and surrounded by hostile neighbours. It could cut both ways for Xi. IMO, if Xi resorts to the QUAD-ruse at the Congress, then he is already on weak grounds.

PS: The one wrong I certainly found was that while the author listed all of Xi's aggression, he didn't mention Ladakh. After all, nobody inflicted such casualty on the PLA, since 1979, as the IA did and he forgot to mention that?
What about the Ming dynasty's construction of and relocation to a new capital in Beijing? The Han's great war against the Xiongnu? Do you actually think the monopolistic behavior of the Chinese tech giants is a positive for the economy? I'm curious what your predictions for China and Xi is based on your assessment.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote:What about the Ming dynasty's construction of and relocation to a new capital in Beijing? The Han's great war against the Xiongnu?
David, there will always be exceptions, no doubt. But, now that you raised the issue of Beijing, it is a fact that its construction almost led to the ruin of the Ming Emperor, the Yongle Emperor. Yongle had sent Adm. Zheng He on voyages and established his name far and wide and in a megalomaniac turn of events decided to shift the capital from Nanjing to Dadu (Beijing). So, he built a brand new capital adjacent to Dadu which had been built by the previous dynasty, the Yuan who were the actual Wolf Warriors ! History records that those Wolf Warriors were never tamed by the Han. But, that's another story.

But, this Beijing led to very serious issues. The taxes had to be raised steeply making the peasants even poorer. Then, the peasants had to be sent to Beijing to build the city, leading to decreased grain production. The peasants never returned to the villages from Beijing where they had huge opportunities (ill effects of urban migration). The coffers were empty. This effect lasted several decades. Immediately, Zheng He's expensive voyages were no longer affordable and were stopped. China never ventured out for another 400 years, something that put paid to their naval prowess.

So, while Yongle's Beijing might not have led to the collapse of the Ming dynasty per se because they survived another 150 years, it had other far-reaching consequences.
Do you actually think the monopolistic behavior of the Chinese tech giants is a positive for the economy? I'm curious what your predictions for China and Xi is based on your assessment.
I can't say one way or another about the validity and necessity of Xi's actions against tech giants. They might be needed. But, for me the timing is suspicious.

Not being a 'seer' prediction is impossible, much less about an opaque governance like it is in China. All I can say is that even in a totalitarian state, there will be questions. Even Chairman Mao wasn't spared. That was why he had to get rid of Gen. Lin Biao in a plane crash in far away Mongolia and Liu Shaoqi had to be murdered. The Cultural Revolution was to get rid of those who opposed Mao. Nobody was spared. Even Zhou en-Lai's daughter was killed. Deng's son was killed, as was Xi's sister, his father was incarcerated and Deng was banished. Josef Stalin's Great Purge had preceded Mao's Revolution and was equally chilling. Xi has earned a lot of enemies internally. However, he is a Confucian and has probably not ruthlessly eliminated all his opponents, the Economy is not doing well, other nations are ganging up, China is seen as a bully, and the flagship BRI is floundering. There are cliques within the PSC. We all know that. Xi has sidelined Li Keqiang, much less everyone else, and is wielding absolute power. There are bound to be questions. The only other Chairman, after Mao, cannot escape. Simple deductions. He is likely still to come out on top because some leaders may not be willing to put their necks on the line, but then that would be bad news for China, in my humble opinion.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by ldev »

This is China's real crisis. And if growth in productivity does not compensate for the imploding working age population, then the Chinese economy will flatten just like Japan has for the last 25+ years. The last time Japan achieved double digit economic growth was 1969!! Curbing the power of Chinese big business is all well and good but if is not complemented by making the working conditions of the average Chinese better, there will be no incentive to have more babies and reverse the impending demographic castastrophe.

Also, unlike China, Japan was not in a constant state of confrontation with it's neighbors during the decades of economic flattening allowing it time to adjust it's economy. China on the other hand is spurring the formation of military (AUKUS) and economic (QUAD) blocs against it as a result of it's hostile behavior. This does not bode well for the continuation of the manufacturing GDP dominance that China currently enjoys.
Image
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

SSridhar wrote: David, there will always be exceptions, no doubt. But, now that you raised the issue of Beijing, it is a fact that its construction almost led to the ruin of the Ming Emperor, the Yongle Emperor. Yongle had sent Adm. Zheng He on voyages and established his name far and wide and in a megalomaniac turn of events decided to shift the capital from Nanjing to Dadu (Beijing). So, he built a brand new capital adjacent to Dadu which had been built by the previous dynasty, the Yuan who were the actual Wolf Warriors ! History records that those Wolf Warriors were never tamed by the Han. But, that's another story.

But, this Beijing led to very serious issues. The taxes had to be raised steeply making the peasants even poorer. Then, the peasants had to be sent to Beijing to build the city, leading to decreased grain production. The peasants never returned to the villages from Beijing where they had huge opportunities (ill effects of urban migration). The coffers were empty. This effect lasted several decades. Immediately, Zheng He's expensive voyages were no longer affordable and were stopped. China never ventured out for another 400 years, something that put paid to their naval prowess.

So, while Yongle's Beijing might not have led to the collapse of the Ming dynasty per se because they survived another 150 years, it had other far-reaching consequences.
Construction of the new capital was expensive, no doubt, but wouldn't you say that Zheng He's voyages were actually the wasteful grand project, rather than the new capital? There were certainly some political imperatives to constructing the new capital.
I can't say one way or another about the validity and necessity of Xi's actions against tech giants. They might be needed. But, for me the timing is suspicious.

Not being a 'seer' prediction is impossible, much less about an opaque governance like it is in China. All I can say is that even in a totalitarian state, there will be questions. Even Chairman Mao wasn't spared. That was why he had to get rid of Gen. Lin Biao in a plane crash in far away Mongolia and Liu Shaoqi had to be murdered. The Cultural Revolution was to get rid of those who opposed Mao. Nobody was spared. Even Zhou en-Lai's daughter was killed. Deng's son was killed, as was Xi's sister, his father was incarcerated and Deng was banished. Josef Stalin's Great Purge had preceded Mao's Revolution and was equally chilling. Xi has earned a lot of enemies internally. However, he is a Confucian and has probably not ruthlessly eliminated all his opponents, the Economy is not doing well, other nations are ganging up, China is seen as a bully, and the flagship BRI is floundering. There are cliques within the PSC. We all know that. Xi has sidelined Li Keqiang, much less everyone else, and is wielding absolute power. There are bound to be questions. The only other Chairman, after Mao, cannot escape. Simple deductions. He is likely still to come out on top because some leaders may not be willing to put their necks on the line, but then that would be bad news for China, in my humble opinion.
I follow your reasoning, but I don't really see how any prediction can be made from those observations. I mean, those are some pretty general observations. Your argument basically boils down to that Xi's policies are failing, therefore his support must be getting weak, because the Xi must have enemies thing applies to just about any politician with significance. Following that line of logic, you do realize that by far the biggest development in the past few years for almost all Chinese is COVID, right? Do you realize how much praise the average Chinese heaps onto the CCP and Xi for his handling of COVID?

As for the other points, can you name a major economy that's doing better than China's currently? Do I need to explain how the Chinese, or any group of people would feel, when others are ganging up against them? Do you think the Chinese feel that they're being a bully? The BRI is a whole debate onto its own, but I've made my position on it rather clear in the past on this board, we can talk more on a more appropriate thread if you want.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Pratyush »

It's quite amazing that a nation that has triggered disputes with all it's neighbourhood thinks that it is a victim of the world ganging up on it.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by kit »

Pratyush wrote:It's quite amazing that a nation that has triggered disputes with all it's neighbourhood thinks that it is a victim of the world ganging up on it.
A narrative that has been repeated so often that they believe it.. I can think of a similar narrative by Hitler on the Germans prior to WW2
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by Lisa »

Kitji,

And also like Germany, an oath to Eleven in person.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... xi-jinping
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by g.sarkar »

Lisa wrote:Kitji,
And also like Germany, an oath to Eleven in person.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... xi-jinping
The soldiers and officers of German military that swore the Führereid were often practicing Christians. The Chinese communists are atheists.
And such oaths could be termed as "Bonapartism" that Karl Marx warned against.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

X-posted from TSP thread

Five million Chinese will be working in Pakistan in next four years - ET
There would be around five million Chinese nationals working in Pakistan by 2025, The News has reported.

To meet the health needs of these Chinese nationals, a collaboration between the Pakistani and Chinese medical universities, research institutes and biotechnological firms under the China Pakistan Health Corridor (CPHC) is being enhanced {You only need hospitals to take care of them, not medical universities or biotech firms or research collaboration etc. What research can Pakistani Djinn scientists collaborate with? There is something very fishy here. China probably wants to use the mards as guinea-pigs for large scale testing of bio-weapons, perhaps. China has helped Pakistan in conventional terrorism, and nuclear terrorism; now bio-terrorism.}, a senior Pakistani public health expert said on Tuesday.

Vice Chancellor Health Services Academy (HSA) Prof Dr Shahzad Ali Khan told The News: "In order to meet the health needs of millions of Chinese nationals working in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian States, we need to have specialised health facilities, based on both modern and traditional treatment systems.

"This can only be achieved by enhancing collaboration between Pakistani and Chinese health institutions under the China Pakistan Health Corridor."

He said talks were in advanced stages to sign multiple, joint collaborative agreements with different Chinese academic, research institutes and biotechnological firms and added that during the 11th Annual Public Health Conference in Islamabad on September 23-24, 2021, several Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) would be signed between Pakistan and Chinese institutions.

"We wish to train Pakistani experts in modern medical technologies as well as traditional Chinese medicines, which is a treatment of choice by millions of people in China. These experts would not only fulfill the medical needs of visiting Chinese nationals but also of the Pakistani people, who believe in alternate medicine," Prof Shahzad Ali Khan said.

In the first step, Chairman China Pakistan Health Corridor Dr Lee, also the VC, HSA, will sign an MoU for the HSA's joining into the China Pakistan Health Corridor, he said, adding the Department of Public Health of Wuhan University will sign an MoU for multiple cooperation in the academic partnership between China and Pakistan in the field of public health. {Perfect giveaway !}
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

And, when Tsai says that such a thought was not in the minds of the Taiwanese, PRC becomes very disturbed and warns that this would give rise to 'conflict' and 'We must not underestimate the strong determination, will and ability of the Chinese people to protect their national sovereignty and territorial integrity'.

So, what is this peaceful reunification nonsense?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by nandakumar »

The Chinese concept of peaceful reunification is passive acquiescence by the other party. It is like the poster of a child that was very popular at one time. The poster would have a child and the caption would say, "I am very eady to please. Just give me everything that I want "!
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote:I follow your reasoning, but I don't really see how any prediction can be made from those observations.
That's exactly what I said that I cannot make a prediction.
I mean, those are some pretty general observations.
True because the Chinese system is so opaque. The Imperial system was relatively better, IMO
Do you realize how much praise the average Chinese heaps onto the CCP and Xi for his handling of COVID?
But then, the people do not elect the leader in China, do they?
As for the other points, can you name a major economy that's doing better than China's currently?
Don't know. India's Q1 GDP growth was something like 21 or 22%.
Do I need to explain how the Chinese, or any group of people would feel, when others are ganging up against them?
I do understand and empathize, but pray do tell me why do you think that others seems to be ganging up against China? What is the Chinese PoV on this? May be we can discuss then.
Do you think the Chinese feel that they're being a bully?
Then what do they feel? I know Confucius spent a lot of time among the 'uncooked' non-Han finally even wondering why they should resist being Sinicized which was after all good for them. Is it a similar kind of benign feeling?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Manish_Sharma »

TWITTER:

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/14 ... YXlDw&s=19

@Chellaney:
The Himalayas have become the most dangerous flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific. More than 17 months following China's border aggression, India's patience is wearing thin, with China using talks to consolidate its land-grabs. For the first time, India calls out China's intransigence.
_______________________

@satbirahluwalia reply:
Moot question, Sir, is : India calling out China’s intransigence, to what end ?
Having achieved its strategic territorial acquisition objectives, for China this border has been done & dusted.
Time for them to head to Taiwan.
https://twitter.com/satbirahluwalia/sta ... wn9lw&s=19
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ There is a mistaken assumption in the challenger's tweet that China will not try to grab more if India de-escalates. Unfortunately this not only calls out the hardline Chinese position but also highlights the hard reality that unless we are constantly on vigil, we run the risk of more land grabs by the Chinese. At least this realization is crystal clear now, and we can be prepared.

Oh and if the Chinese position is so bloody hardline, it's time to mine the LAC.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ramana »

Guys we are not bringing new ideas or scholarship to the China issue. All we get is the same old warhorses spouting the same old noises.
Please come back more well-read and understanding to shape our debates.
Look at every report with
What does it say that is new?
How does this affect India?
What should India do?
Do nothing
Do something +ve
do something -ve
If so what are those three things? If you don't have three things you have not thought through the options
Rest is bokwas.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ritesh »

What's stopping us capturing g219 highway in its entirety? Won't it severely paralyze chipkali from bottom up?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Dilbu »

China, India Point Fingers at Each Other in New Border Talks
China and India blamed each other for a lack of progress in finding ways to ease friction along their disputed border, underscoring the lingering ill will following clashes last year.

The Chinese side “made great efforts” to calm tensions during a meeting of military officials on Sunday, Colonel Long Shaohua, spokesperson for the Western theater of the People’s Liberation Army, said in a statement. “But India still stuck to unreasonable and unrealistic demands, which added difficulties to the negotiation,” according to the Monday statement, which said the talks were held at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point in the Ladakh region.
The Indian military hit back, saying it made suggestions for resolving areas of dispute, “but the Chinese side was not agreeable and also could not provide any forward-looking proposals.” The army said in a statement, later reposted by the Indian foreign ministry, that it would be the “expectation that the Chinese side will take into account the overall perspective of bilateral relations and work towards the early resolution of remaining issues.”

China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the Indian side’s statement as having no “factual basis,” in a regular press briefing in Beijing on Monday, and urged India to “abide by the relevant agreements and consensus raised between the two countries and two militaries.”
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Dilbu »

Author Adhiraaj Anand is a master of international affairs candidate at the National University of Singapore, studying the role of perceptions in Sino-Indian relations.
How Does China’s Military View India?
The PLA views India’s growing military cooperation with the United States with some concern but generally does not consider India a major threat.
The Indian military sees China as its biggest threat, as Chief of Defense Staff Bipin Rawat made clear in an interview in June 2021. The Indian Army has moved 50,000 troops to its border with China in 2021, with about 20,000 troops in the Ladakh sector. So how does the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) view India? The PLA’s media, including the newspaper PLA Daily and the TV program “Defense Review,” offer some insights. It views India’s growing military cooperation with the United States with some concern but generally does not consider India a major threat.

Since 2018, in its articles and videos about India, the PLA’s online media have focused mainly on India’s partnership with the U.S., discussing the topic 23 times. It has featured India’s defense industry and arms purchases, discussed 21 times. India’s growing ties with the U.S. have often been juxtaposed with its relations with Russia, which have been discussed 13 times. By contrast, there were surprisingly few in-depth analyses or opinion pieces about the Sino-Indian border dispute, even during the Ladakh skirmish in 2020, with most articles about the issue being brief press releases about meetings to resolve the issue and using language such as “easing tensions,” “maintaining communication,” and “avoiding misunderstandings.”
Overall, we can conclude that the PLA does not consider India one of its primary security challenges and emphasizes maintaining peace on the border. It perceives India to still be attached to its long-running non-alignment philosophy in its relations with the United States. While the PLA sees India as behaving in an increasingly aggressive and expansionist manner in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, it downplays how far India’s actions in these latter theaters could go.
More recently, writers and experts in PLA media have reaffirmed the view that India is linking its Act East policy with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, seeing an opportunity to consolidate its dominance in South Asia and increase its control over the Indian Ocean. This explains why India has set up a network of bases and stations around the Indian Ocean in countries and territories including Madagascar, the Seychelles, Mauritius, the Maldives and India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and has conducted exercises with the United States near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Chinese military experts also see India’s closeness with the United States and other powers as a means for India to upgrade its weapons and defense systems and realize its goals on land. On the two countries’ intelligence cooperation, PLA Military Strategist Du Wenlong said on “Defense Review” that India could become “American Eye” a dangerous move with “sinister intentions.” However, experts on “Defense Review” are also of the opinion that recent Indian arms purchases from the United States do not actually give India a significant advantage and are mostly aimed at “buying American support” as well as domestic media consumption. Moreover, Chinese military analysts argues that progress implementing defense agreements between the United States and India, such as the four foundational agreements, has been slow, mostly talk with little action. Thus, any “alliance” between the U.S. and India is unlikely to last.
Chinese experts nevertheless recognize that India would not let itself be manipulated. New Delhi regards itself as a major power and wants to use its relationship with the U.S. to accelerate its own growth as a military and economic power while maintaining its strategic autonomy. As India becomes more powerful, the partnership could face challenges. Above all, the prospects of a true “alliance” between the United States and India are held back by a long-running philosophy of non-alignment in India’s foreign policy.

India-Russia relations are also often cited in PLA media as a factor preventing India from forming a true alliance with the U.S. Lou Chunhao, a professor at the China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), notes that New Delhi and Moscow have diverged on China-U.S. relations as well as the Indo-Pacific strategy and that as a result their ties are bound be less close than they were previously. Nevertheless, they are unlikely to part ways completely, due to their lack of historical animosity and the fact that they do not pose any security threats to each other. Moreover, there is still great potential for cooperation in military and other domains that the two countries would not want to waste – for example, Russia will want to compete with the United States for the Indian arms market. As one expert put it in “Defense Review,” Russia’s recent strategy has been to “both beat and pull India,” to warn it from getting too close to the United States while also offering opportunities for economic and military cooperation.
Furthermore, PLA media view India’s recent military exercises along its borders and coastline as reflective of a trend to “provoke bigger countries and suppress smaller countries” in its neighborhood. Certain purchases and tests of weaponry (such as Agni-5 missiles in 2021) are seen to be aimed more at politics and domestic consumption, to hype India’s big power status. Surprise attack drills near the Sino-Indian border in 2021 in particular were derided by Wang Xiaopeng and Du Wenlong on “Defense Review,” where they pointed out that with the unfavorable conditions on India’s borders, launching such attacks would be a foolish move. Such exercises, they argued, are thus meant primarily to divert domestic attention away from other issues including India’s struggles in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Overall, PLA media portray India’s recent moves as reflective of a binary “either non-alignment or alliance” trap. While the PLA has since 2013 perceived India to be moving away from non-alignment and entering a quasi-alliance with the United States, China’s military thinkers are now of the view that this is partnership unlikely to last long. Although India’s recent actions at both land and sea are viewed as provocative and reflective of an expansionist trend, the PLA and its media generally downplay the threat India poses to China.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

The title of this thread is "Neutering and Defanging China". Consider the scale of that challenge e.g. Volkswagen AG Group sells somewhere between 3.5 to 4.0 million cars every year in China. That single company sells as many cars in China as the entire Indian 4 wheeler market. Mercedes Benz sells about 750,000 cars in China, all of them made in China. In comparison Mercedes Benz sells about 250,000 to 275,000 cars per year in the US and Germany each. In other words the Chinese market for Mercedes Benz is more than the combined market of it's home country and the US. By comparison Mercedes Benz sells ~10,000 car in India per year. General Motors sells about 3 million cars per year in China. Ford Motor company sells about 600,000 cars per year. Both of these companies have closed operations in India. Just consider the business lobbying that these companies bring to bear on their Governments to normalize relations with China. They are effectively acting as unpaid, full time lobbyists for China with their own Governments.

In December of 2020 the European Union signed an Investment Agreement with China overriding the objections of the incoming Biden Administration to defer the signing until it assumed office on January 20 and the US could sit down with Europe and discuss the issue. The only reason that agreement has not been ratified by the EU Parliament is because some EU Parliamentarian was arrested in China.

The foundation of a country and it's ability to fund it's military size, modernization, R&D and purchase/acquisition of equipment is directly tied to the size and structure of it's economy. If the objective is to neuter China then India has to emerge as a credible economic competitor to China. I read this $5 T figure bandied about a lot on this forum. That is far from being a credible competitor. India's economy has to reach about 70%-80% of China's for it to be credible. The West was able to defeat the USSR not by prosecuting a military war but by containing it militarily by having a credible deterrent at every step of the escalation ladder and then putting pressure on it's most vulnerable sector, the brittle command led economy. When that Soviet economy cracked, the country disintegrated.

The challenge with China unlike the Soviet Union is that China is a part of the dollar based trading system and a member of the WTO. So it is like a parasite that strengthens itself by being a part of the system and then uses that strength for hostile purposes. China's vulnerability is it's brittle political system via the one party CCP rule. The tacit bargain between the people and the CCP for having no freedoms in return for ever rising living standards is the vulnerable link that has to be targeted. That will take a long time, potentially measured in a decade or two or more. In the meantime India has to work in concert with other countries to make very very rapid progress on the economy and have a credible deterrent at every level of the escalation ladder from the conventional border confrontation all the way into the nuclear realm. This is to ensure that China is not tempted to take advantage of any perceived vulnerability in the interim period.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

You mean China's drive to superpower status is inexorable?

https://youtu.be/s-2DtL-Wjkc?t=228


China's weapons may be of similar quality as its infrastructure. One needs a more granular inspection of China's economy. Real estate is the largest single faction but it may be an economy built on sand.

Here are some office workers demonstrating confidence in China's real estate.

https://youtu.be/s-2DtL-Wjkc?t=263
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ldev »

sanjaykumar wrote:You mean China's drive to superpower status is inexorable?
By consumption and production metrics if not by innovation metrics as yet, it is an economic superpower as of now. Electricity production and consumption, steel production and consumption, automobile sales, exports, in all these sectors China is ahead of the US by a considerable margin.

A collapsed building here and there is not going to interrupt it's progress. Only deep fault lines in the political-economic structure linkage make it vulnerable. Housing stock is a special area. The Chinese real estate sector is the single largest asset class in the world nominally valued at $ 64 trillion. Of that about $ 11 trillion is empty i.e. ghost towns that were built in anticipation of the continued movement of populations from rural China to urban China. That movement has virtually stopped due to the working age population peaking and hence the ghost towns or stranded real estate. But some say that a fall in real estate prices is precisely what Xi wants to enable housing become more affordable. It is a balancing act between affordable housing for the masses vs confidence in real estate companies which Xi has embarked on and hence the lukewarm rescue stance towards Evergrande.

India is the only other viable country which has a equivalent population and favorable demographics, {particularly as China's demographics are going to be vulnerable from this point on}, to be able to act as an alternate magnet for the global economy going forward. Provided India get's it's act together.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

Economics has not coined a word yet for what Chinese metrics are in reality.

This is a wasteful, cyclical, contrived demand for everything from roads to ports to highways to mining equipment.

Huge swaths of Chinese residential housing constitute a death trap. China will never put out figures for those killed and maimed by the corrupt construction found everywhere in China. Tell me how do you valuate such high rises?

In the West and also India these would be classified as liabilities not assets. Of course the cement, sand, glass bottles used for reinforcing the concrete (I kid you not), the transport and production the accounting services etc are all counted as Chinese economic activity.

700 million rural Chinese live on less than $2 a day. Are they going to buy properties in those ghost cities, or are they going to provide food for two sets of grandparents?

Perhaps China is as fake as its food.
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