Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 8869548034

Breaking: Australia government warns that Australians travelling to China could face 'arbitrary detention', as relations between the countries continue to deteriorate.

OTOH, China has warned its citizens form traveling to Canada. Things are escalating by the day.

[SSridhar]

China’s Superpower Dreams Are Running Out of Money

FP's take on supaa-pawaa dreams & houls...

We have no reason to distrust that the 'Chinese Dream' is running out of money, even without those elaborate reasonings given in the article. Every time a Chinese Emperor (and Xi is one such Emperor of the CCP Dynasty) launched a megalomaniacal project, the Grand Canal, the Great Wall, Beijing etc. the coffers disappeared and chaos followed.

[darshan]

UltraTech's Subsidiary To Sell Entire Stake In Chinese Cement Firm For $129 Million
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/ultratech ... 29-million
Krishna Holdings, a subsidiary of UltraTech Nathdwara Cement, will sell its entire 92.5 per cent stake in China's Shandong Binani Rongan Cement for around $129 million.

UltraTech Nathdwara Cement is a subsidiary of the UltraTech Cement.

In a regulatory filing on Tuesday (7 July), UltraTech said, "Krishna Holdings, incorporated in Singapore and a subsidiary of the company's wholly-owned subsidiary UltraTech Nathdwara Cement, has informed that it has entered into a binding agreement for divesting its entire shareholding of 92.5 per cent in Shandong Binani Rongan Cement."

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1280446937695580160

Saurav Jha @SJha1618

Obviously, China thinks it gains either way. If India doesn't spend enough on the land border then it thinks it can get away with creeping encroachment. And if India does spend enough, then Beijing thinks India's Navy will get neglected.

Possibly with the current trend in defense spending ... but likely the trend will reverse.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1280447353938300929

The only way to break China's expansionist game against India is to develop a land-based force posture that is geared towards serious offensive action across the Himalayas at more than one stretch. This must be backed up with a large SRBM/MRBM force armed with nuke warheads.

The offensive Mountain divisions that were put on back-burner would have to be revived and we do need conventionally armed BM based Rocket forces to hit China back.

This will mitigate the problem of not spending enough in the naval sphere, because this will not be a 'defensive posture'. China will know that it will lose more than face and over time these offensive formations will become a counterpressure tool on Zhongnanhai/Beijing.

I think we will still need Naval expansion with hunter-killer subs, warships, SATInt, missiles, etc.

[Ashokk]

Ashokji
Don't you think this is the right time for India to be making overtures to these countries and also France/Italy/Spain
Modiji has that personal charisma to take it to another level if need be.
The only sticking point here would be our relationship vis-à-vis Russia.
How can India keep Unkil and Dubya at an arms length from this grouping is the big question

Rsatchiji, I am in full agreement, we have to join forces with like minded nations to contain them. If the Quad initiative starts making its presence felt, I am sure a lot of countries which cannot take on China on their own will gravitate towards it. Every action does not need to be a military one, there are several ways in which coordinated actions on different international fora can be used to cut the lizard down to size. Russia will have to be handled carefully by the government as the russians have a strong economic relationship with China and they will not be keen on jeopardizing that. There is also natural affinity at the top as they are both totalitarian regimes and have a common enemy in the US.

[pankajs]

The message has finally sunk in with the US establishment ...

https://www.axios.com/fbi-director-chin ... 0e673.html
FBI director says China aims to become "world's only superpower"

"We’ve now reached the point where the FBI is opening a new China-related counterintelligence case approximately every ten hours."

Wray said Americans should keep three things in mind:

1. China's leaders believe they are in a "generational fight" to make China the "world's only superpower by any means necessary."
2. Beijing uses a diverse set of methods to achieve its goals, including economic espionage, intelligence gathering, pushing for censorship at universities, and "malign foreign influence," referring to covert and coercive attempts to make powerful people advocate for China's interests in the U.S.
3. China is taking advantage of America's open system, while preserving its own closed system, such as by working through ostensibly private Chinese companies to achieve state goals.

[Manny]

The Strategic Postures of China and India \

https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/defa ... stures.pdf

[pankajs]

While this was always on card it still merits an entry here ...

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ind ... 36306.html
India rejects market economy tag for China

India on Monday rejected China’s demand to grant it market economy status, amid the ongoing face-off between the two armies along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). New Delhi will continue to treat its neighbour as a non-market economy, which allows it to impose steep anti-dumping duties on imports from China.

[Suraj]

While this was always on card it still merits an entry here ...

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ind ... 36306.html
India rejects market economy tag for China

India on Monday rejected China’s demand to grant it market economy status, amid the ongoing face-off between the two armies along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). New Delhi will continue to treat its neighbour as a non-market economy, which allows it to impose steep anti-dumping duties on imports from China.

#CostliestWarTheyEverFought

[RaviB]

#CostliestWarTheyEverFought

Suraj ji, wasn't the "war on sparrows" costlier, at least in terms of lives (30-40 million)?

[KLNMurthy]

OT, but it's hilarious to see them refer to us as such. No "hindu nationalist BJP", "Nazi inspired RSS", "Herr Modi, the then Guj CM in 2002" buzzwords when bharat is working against someone they don't approve of. After the chinks are taken care of, and they will be given the direction and pace marching on, no prizes to guess who will be next in line.

If the chinis weren't hell bent on fingering us, I'd love for them to teach the massas a lesson. But alas.

This is the NYPost, very right-leaning. Different from NYT/WaPo et al, at the same time it is no Breitbart.

Plus the author has an agenda of going after the Sugars, so doing the usual anti-India litany would have been a self goal.

[KLNMurthy]

While this was always on card it still merits an entry here ...

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ind ... 36306.html
India rejects market economy tag for China

India on Monday rejected China’s demand to grant it market economy status, amid the ongoing face-off between the two armies along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). New Delhi will continue to treat its neighbour as a non-market economy, which allows it to impose steep anti-dumping duties on imports from China.

It’s never anything short of a “demand” with these sugars, is it?

[Suraj]

#CostliestWarTheyEverFought

Suraj ji, wasn't the "war on sparrows" costlier, at least in terms of lives (30-40 million)?

Boss, technically you're right that taking a gun and shooting oneself in the foot could qualify as 'war' , but usually that refers to dealing with other parties

[pankajs]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2 ... bbb3f678e8
Could The Indian Navy Strangle China’s Lifeline In The Malacca Strait?

Same old trope being sold again and again ... e.g.

Gwadar itself could be vulnerable to Indian Air Force attack, however. But it adds political and military risks as it is in a third country’s territory. Attempts to blockade the port, like the Malacca Strait, could also be considered. But this would draw Indian Navy assets away from the Malacca Strait and other missions.

Additionally India’s ability to threaten goods going via Gwadar, could be complicated by the increasing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean. In fact the same goes for the Malacca Strait. China has already built a strong base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. And it seems likely that the Chinese Navy, known as the PLAN, will establish more substantial fleet there. Chinese submarines may also become a regular threat in the area.

1. Haar sawal ka eek hi jwaab - Attack the pipeline/corridor where it it the weakest and most exposed i.e. while traversing the Gilgit/Baltisthan.
   1. Gilgit/Baltisthan is Indian territory.
   2. No need to divert Navy from its patrol duties around Malacca
   3. Chinese navy would be of no use in that area.
2. Plus, the pathways through the GB area are very limited i.e. Limited targets and NO surprises. Works for India.
3. Plus, the area current pathway passes through highly unstable terrain with steep but loose mountain sides. Easy places to cause strategic landslides that would take years to clear.
4. Plus, the last time they had build quite a few bridges to bypass on such landslide create lake. There are no alternate ways around those bridges if even one is taken out by a missile strike.
5. The pathway for most of its passage through GB is within fighter/Brahmos strike range.

Looks like China pays big money to get such garbage inserted into such mags.

[Tuan]

In Myanmar, A Rare Glimmer of Hope for Indian Regional Policy
https://thegeopolitics.com/in-myanmar-a ... al-policy/

In the barren, high altitude Himalayan region between China and India, a clash on June 15 left twenty Indian soldiers dead. Nationalists on both sides called for demonstrations of strength, but cooler heads prevailed. As they de-escalated the conflict at the border, the battlefield shifted to other areas of competition. India, with an economy one-fifth the size of China’s, has struggled to find avenues for inflicting punishment on China. Even among India’s closest allies on the South Asian sub-continent, China has made inroads in recent years. Bangladesh and Nepal responded to June’s border conflict with silence.

In Myanmar, 4000 kilometers east of where the fighting happened, the past two weeks have provided India some much needed good news.

Beijing’s headaches there began on June 24, when a large cache of Chinese-manufactured weapons was seized in Thailand. The weapons were destined for some of the ethnic separatist armies waging war on Myanmar’s military. In the past, Myanmar has been hesitant to criticize China in such instances. It is heavily dependent on China and has little leverage in the relationship.

Last week, however, the government offered an unusually sharp response. General Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-Chief of Myanmar’s military, obliquely called China out for interfering in domestic politics. Speaking with Russian state media, Min asked for international help to keep “strong forces” out of Myanmar. “A country may be able to suppress terrorist organizations on its soil. But in cases when there are strong forces behind that terrorist organization, the country alone may not be able to handle it,” he said.

General Min’s statement came four days after he met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. The two discussed expanding military cooperation in domains such as counter insurgency, according to a spokesperson for Myanmar’s military. In the context of his meeting with an Indian counterpart, General Min’s statement suggests that India’s support enabled Myanmar to adopt a harder line with Beijing.

For decades, the internationally isolated junta that ruled Myanmar relied on China for military and economic life support. Between 1988 and 2013, when Myanmar had lower imports per capita than North Korea, China provided 42 percent of foreign investment flow into Myanmar and 60 percent of the military’s weapons. “As Western rhetoric in favor of an immediate democratic transition became more shrill, China’s steady declarations of friendship and pledges of ‘non-interference in the internal affairs of Myanmar’ rose in value,” Thant Myint-U, a historian, wrote in his 2011 book Where China Meets India.

China’s promises of non-interference were regularly broken, of course. China backed a communist insurgency in Myanmar throughout the Cold War, and for the last two decades it has supplied weapons and support to Myanmar’s largest ethnic armies, the United Wa State Army. In 2015, the Wa State Army refused to sign a ceasefire, reportedly under orders from Beijing. Myanmar, lacking alternatives, had to accept China’s behavior.

Its options expanded when Indian policy changed. Until the 1990s, India, like most democracies, refused to do business with Myanmar’s ruling junta. It sponsored UN resolutions condemning Myanmar, and Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes even personally allowed exiled Burmese activists to stay in his home.

But as China’s influence among its neighbors grew, so too did Myanmar’s strategic importance to Indian policymakers. India dropped its former intransigence toward the regime, adopting a policy of non-interference. In 2004, India hosted Than Shwe, ruler of the military junta, for a lavish state visit.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has put Myanmar at the center of efforts to elevate India’s ties with its bordering states and with ASEAN through his Neighborhood First and Act East policies. Myanmar is the only ASEAN nation that enjoys a separate division within India’s External Affairs Ministry, a distinction which testifies to its weight in India’s foreign policy considerations.

While many Western nations put rapprochement with Myanmar on hold after the military forcibly expelled 700,000 people of the Rohingya minority between 2015 and 2017, India has continued to embrace its neighbor. In November 2017, India and Myanmar’s militaries held their first bilateral exercises. Soon after, they launched Operation Sunshine, a joint-military campaign to root out Indian separatist groups based at their shared border. In 2019, they inked a landmark defense agreement that saw Myanmar purchase its first submarine.

India has come under fire for supporting Myanmar’s government. Its most strident critics claim the partnership is ethically compromising while offering “little pay off.” Last week’s events suggest otherwise. A statement from Myanmar’s Commander in Chief lashing out at the interference of “strong forces” might not seem like much. But when compared to the military’s reticence in previous such instances, the statement indicates a notable shift against China.

In Myanmar, India has a partner waiting to be further engaged. Anti-China sentiment is widespread among Myanmar’s military brass, not to its people. General Min’s statement should be read as an invitation for India to provide Myanmar an alternative to widely loathed Chinese support.

For India, this is a rare window of opportunity to chip away at China’s regional position without needing to outspend China. India should double down on its commitment to its eastern neighbor through new economic and military initiatives. Doing so makes China’s missteps into India’s gains. Now is the time for India to act.

[Mollick.R]

Suraj ji, wasn't the "war on sparrows" costlier, at least in terms of lives (30-40 million)?

Boss, technically you're right that taking a gun and shooting oneself in the foot could qualify as 'war' , but usually that refers to dealing with other parties

Last year purchased this book & finished reading it. A very insightful book about china it also tells about Mao's war on sparrows and cottage steel plant adventurism. The book is worth of one's time.

[yensoy]

In Myanmar, A Rare Glimmer of Hope for Indian Regional Policy
https://thegeopolitics.com/in-myanmar-a ... al-policy/

...India has come under fire for supporting Myanmar’s government. Its most strident critics claim the partnership is ethically compromising while offering “little pay off.” Last week’s events suggest otherwise. A statement from Myanmar’s Commander in Chief lashing out at the interference of “strong forces” might not seem like much. But when compared to the military’s reticence in previous such instances, the statement indicates a notable shift against China.

In Myanmar, India has a partner waiting to be further engaged. Anti-China sentiment is widespread among Myanmar’s military brass, not to its people. General Min’s statement should be read as an invitation for India to provide Myanmar an alternative to widely loathed Chinese support...

What I have heard about China-Myanmar axis is that
1. There is an agreement between the Myanmar military and politicians. Military keeps its hands off politics, however one industry is the monopoly of the military.
2. That industry is Jade. All Jade mines are essentially military enterprises, and their proceeds accrue to the military/top brass.
3. While this industry is mostly off the books, Jade mining is estimated to be one third of Myanmar's GDP. So we have a military which has monopoly over a third of the economy as a price to stay out of politics - not a bad deal for them IMHO.
4. The Jade industry's customer is China. Even if Jade artifacts sell outside of China, the actual value addition - engraving etc is done in China.

Given this tight link between Myanmar military and China, I find it a little difficult to swallow that they are at loggerheads - but there could be commercial or tactical reasons for tensions.

Does the recent Jade mine collapse with huge death toll have something to do with China? Is it a message to the military? See for instance a news article saying that the military fired an officer responsible for the mine disaster (ordinarily, why would the military be in charge of a mine?): https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/mi ... aster.html

Here's a great backgrounder: https://time.com/battling-for-blood-jade/

[darshan]

crooks shouldn't have been allowed to begin with. There needs to be permanent laws that make companies signoff on many things like Tibet genocides and no support for one China policy before allowing any bidding.

What's this garbage of "efforts are on"?

Amid India-China Standoff, Govt To Restrict Chinese Firms From Participating In 7,500 MW Ladakh Solar Power Project
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/amid ... er-project
The deadly border conflict between India and China in the Ladakh region is now setting the ground for a first set of restrictions that India proposes to impose on imports from the Asian giant.

Sources said that efforts were on at the official level to explore ways of denying Chinese firms from participating in the bids for the upcoming 7,500 MW solar power project in Ladakh.

[darshan]

Why E-Commerce Giants Are Dragging Their Feet On Country-Of-Origin Rules
https://swarajyamag.com/business/why-e- ... igin-rules

While it is nobody’s case that genuine implementation issues should be ignored by the babus who man DPIIT, one has to separate the real reasons for the foot-dragging from the operational ones.

[pankajs]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&p=2447046#p2447018

<snip>

When one looses contact with reality on lists all measures you have listed as "Diplomatic measures". The FACT remains, the Chinese are able to buy influence worldwide because of the economic power. Our neglect of our economy after the initial burst of reform following 1991 is coming back to bite us.

Rest is all hogwash.

https://twitter.com/StratNewsGlobal/sta ... 3330812933

‘China pumped in a lot of money for Duterte @pcoogov in the 2016 Philippines election to ensure a more compliant government because of the @PCA_CPA judgement.’ Ex-envoy @anilwad @ASHWINAHMAD3 part of our China: Serial Aggressor series

‘U.S. and Japanese aid and investment ‘could help Duterte recalibrate his position, but it is clear the economic stranglehold that Beijing has over Manila will not go away anytime soon’ @ASHWINAHMAD3 @StratNewsGlobal @USEmbassyPH @indembmanila @JaideepMazumda2 @anilwad

What China has done it Philippines backed by its economic clout that also translates into military clout in its region and globally.

Use the clout to install a compliant government, corrupt/buy out elites and buy out resources. The same process is visible in our region too and is playing right now in full public view in Nepal.

More on the pressure side ...
https://twitter.com/desertfox61I/status ... 1908118528

Ramping up the pressure
#Australia suspends extradition treaty with #HongKong
and
Announces changes in immigration rules for Hong Kongers

[g.sarkar]

Older article that is more relevant today:
https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/thailan ... ca-strait/
Thailand’s Kra Canal: China’s Way Around the Malacca Strait
A 200-year-old dream might finally become a reality under China’s Belt and Road.
By Rhea Menon, April 06, 2018
The establishment of a Kra Canal in Thailand may soon become a reality as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The canal would permit ships to bypass the Malacca Strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint, amplifying the strategic significance of the project.
Throughout history, there have been multiple attempts by the Thai monarchy and European colonists to capitalize on the commercial and strategic importance of the region by constructing a canal across the narrow isthmus that connects Thailand to the Malay peninsula. In recent times, China’s global vision of a new Maritime Silk Road has renewed the attention on the possibility of developing the Kra Canal. The modern Kra or Thai Canal project would be connected to the various Chinese infrastructure and connectivity projects in the region.
The maritime portion of the BRI is an ambitious connectivity project that aims at linking Southeast Asia to Europe through the Indian Ocean. In the last two decades, the construction of new ports and maritime facilities has contributed to the increasing competition among nations in the Indian Ocean region. As China continues to expand its presence across the maritime domain, the establishment of infrastructure projects, like the Kra Canal, is likely to influence the new emerging security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.
....
________________________________________________________________________________
Also see:
https://livinginasia.co/thai-canal/
The Thai Canal – The proposed canal across the Isthmus of Kra in Southern Thailand
May 12, 2020 By James Clark
.......
Gautam

[pankajs]

^^
While the Kra Canal will by pass Malacca strait and the US base @ Singapore, it will still have to navigate the Andaman sea. Check where it emerges on the left of the picture frame. There is no way to work around India's Andaman & Nicobar island chain.


Ref: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ises-again

[Mollick.R]

Boycott China: Display country of origin by August 1, Govt tells ecommerce companies

By Kirtika Suneja, Alnoor Peermohamed, ET Bureau|Last Updated: Jul 09, 2020, 08.29 AM IST

New Delhi | Bengaluru: The government has asked ecommerce platforms such as Amazon and Flipkart to display the country of origin on new products listed by sellers on their sites by August 1 and legacy items by October 1 without stipulating a deadline. The companies sought more time to implement the changes, which are part of the government’s plan to curb imports, at an online meeting with officials on Wednesday. The platforms said the measures should be introduced in a phased manner with the involvement of manufacturers and sellers in the process, said people with knowledge of the matter.
The government will take a call on the final deadline soon, an official said.
.
.
Issues Flagged
Under the current law, there is no requirement to display country of origin on non-packaged goods. The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) will discuss introduction of the relevant legal provisions with the consumer affairs ministry on listing such information, said the people cited above.

“No decision was taken — it was only a consultation and follow-up of the previous meeting. A deadline will be decided later because packaging issues come under the consumer affairs ministry,” said a government official aware of the details.

While Flipkart is understood to have suggested a deadline of August 15 to implement the required backend changes, Amazon sought 2-3 months for the same, people present in the online meeting told ET. “The government wants that new listings be updated by August 1 and the old ones by October 1 but it was decided that work on the new ones must begin as soon as possible,” said a company official after the virtual meeting with ecommerce companies.

Representatives of as many as 30 ecommerce sites including Amazon, Flipkart, Jio, Shoppers Stop, Croma, Snapdeal, Lenskart, Paytm, Grofers, Tata Cliq, Pharmeasy, 1MG, HomeShop 18, Swiggy, Zomato and Medikabazaar attended the call. The companies raised points related to the feasibility of the move and lack of clarity in the Legal Metrology (Packaged Commodity) Rules as they sought more time.

Following the feedback, the government is also likely to review the Legal Metrology (Packaged Commodity) Rules that govern prepackaged commodities and cover declarations about country of origin, date of manufacture, quantity, expiry date and manufacturer’s details among other information about the product.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 864214.cms

[Aldonkar]

The Chinese seem to be investing in a lot of African and IOR countries, some of these are loans that lead to debt traps. I'm not saying India should throw cash around, but we should start working with these countries to squeeze the Chinese and switch over infrastructure and other projects to India.

Kenya has a new railway built by the Chinese. There was an existing one built by the British circa 1900. My grandfather was in the Indian Army and he was sent out to guard the Indian labourers who built that railway. That was the beginning of the Indian community in East Africa.

In the last month or so the Kenya high court has stated that the Kenyan railway company did not follow the correct procedures when it accepted the Chinese loan for the work (about 4.5 B dollars). The new railway goes just beyond Nakuru in Central Kenya (NW of Nairobi) and peters out in the countryside because the current Kenyan gov refuses the terms for a further loan to complete the project until Kisumu on Lake Victoria (near the Uganda border). So it is called the Line to nowhere.

I left Kenya over 50 years (for the UK) ago but I sometimes see such articles on the news and am in touch with one of my schoolmates who is still in Kenya. I should mention that my grandparents (all four) were from Goa, not too far from where Manohar Parrikar's family were.

[ramana]

Thanks for the update. Pranam to your family

[SSridhar]

In Kenya, China has invested in the Port of Mombasa and is also building a 450-Km long railway line from the port city to capital Nairobi under a BOT scheme (launched c. 2017) at a total cost of USD 4.5 B. In June 2020, the Kenyan Supreme Court declared a $3.2 billion railways contract awarded to China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) to be illegal. It said that state-run Kenya Railways violated the country's law in procuring the $3.2 billion Chinese funded Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project. Mombasa is one of the 18 foreign naval bases that China has been planning as was leaked in c. 2014.

[SSridhar]

In clear message to China, India to invite Australian Navy for Malabar drill - Economic Times

India plans to invite Australia to join the annual Malabar naval exercise that has so far included just Japan and the U.S., in a move that could risk China’s ire. {Huh . . .?}

The decision to include Australia in the drills — the first time all members of the regional grouping known as the Quad will be engaged at a military level — comes as Beijing and New Delhi are caught up in their worst border tensions in four decades. The exercise will bring together the navies of India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. in the Bay of Bengal at the end of the year, according to senior Indian officials who asked not to be identified, citing rules.

New Delhi is expected to clear the way next week for a formal invitation to Australia following final government clearance and consultations with the U.S. and Japan, the officials said.

“The timing of India potentially letting Australia into Malabar would be especially significant at this juncture,” said Derek Grossman, researcher at the Washington-based RAND Corporation who worked in the U.S. intelligence community for more than a decade. “It would send a significant message to China that the Quad — U.S., Australia, Japan, and India — are de facto conducting joint naval exercises, even if not technically conducted under the auspices of a Quad event.”

China has been uncomfortable with the informal coalition of four democracies, which was first formed in 2004 to help nations in the Indo-Pacific after the tsunami and revived in 2017. Post the coronavirus pandemic, the grouping has been coordinating efforts every month with Vietnam, South Korea and New Zealand.

Indian Navy Spokesperson Commander Vivek Madhawal declined to comment.

A spokesperson for Australia’s defence department said in an emailed statement on Friday that while the nation was yet to receive an invitation to Exercise Malabar, “Australia sees value in participating in quadrilateral defense activities in order to increase interoperability and advance our collective interests in a free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.”

Strengthening Ties

While the Malabar exercises between U.S. and Indian navies were instituted in 1992, they have been more regular since 2004 with other Asian nations joining in the annual event. China had objected to the only other time Australia participated in the drills along with India, Japan, U.S. and Singapore in 2007.

India’s inclusion of Australia this year follows a defence agreement and upgrading ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The Mutual Logistics support agreement announced in May by Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Scott Morrison allows access to each other’s bases and ports. India has a similar agreement with the U.S.

Canberra’s inclusion in the games was “only a matter of time” given improving defense and economic ties, according to Biren Nanda, former Indian High Commissioner to Australia and senior fellow at Delhi Policy Group. Australia’s merchandise trade with India for the year ended June 2019 was A$21.1 billion ($14.5 billion), according to Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

“There’s no direct relation between inviting Australia and what’s happening at the Sino-Indian border,” said Nanda in a phone interview. “This was a natural progression. Yet the question will be raised: how would the Chinese regard this? And they will react negatively. Just like they had done earlier.”

Weaponized Quad

China objected to Japan’s inclusion in the U.S-India annual Malabar event in 2015 with the then foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei warning “relevant countries” to not “provoke confrontation and create tension” in the region. Five years later, with an assertive China pushing neighbours across the Asian seas, Nanda expects a similar response.

Yet, there may be more acceptance to the idea of “like-minded democracies that seek to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open” amid India’s rapidly souring China ties, purely out of frustration, said Rajeswari Pillai Rajagoplan, distinguished fellow at New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation and author of ‘Clashing Titans: Military Strategy and Insecurity Among Asian Great Powers.’

Although India and China are now in the process of disengaging along their 3,488 kilometer (2,167 mile) unmarked boundary in the Himalayas after high-level military and diplomatic talks, the deadly clashes that followed the months-long standoff in the Galwan valley was a blow to relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

“Especially after Galwan, there’s a growing realization in New Delhi’s elite circles that its increasingly difficult to trust China. They have broken more than four decades of agreements. Good trade ties are no guarantee of peace,” said Rajagoplan. “They have time and again tried to interfere in other nations’ foreign policy. But there’s an agreement in India that China should not have a say in who our friends are.”

With Washington indicating its willingness to back the region through an increased force deployment in Asia, the Malabar exercises may take on more importance.

“The Quad has always been a security platform but didn’t have a military context to it,” said Rajagopalan. “The Malabar exercises may give it just that thanks to China upping its ante and threatening the region’s security.”

[Roop]

In clear message to China, India to invite Australian Navy for Malabar drill - Economic Times

When (approx.) is this year's Ex. Malabar scheduled to start?

[SSridhar]

September, but could be postponed to October, I think.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1 ... 0620446721

Ryan Browne @rabrowne75

The State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Japan of 105 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft and related equipment for an estimated cost of $23.11 billion.

[pankajs]

https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... t-6493234/
China sees Indo-Pacific idea in terms of balance of power, not for advancing common interests

After the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, China was initially focussed on the consolidation of the “homeland”. Its horizons broadened as its economy went global, and the consequent challenge was encapsulated by President Hu Jintao in November 2003 to party cadres as China’s “Malacca Dilemma”. They imagined that others would block the Malacca Straits to “contain” the Chinese. From that point forward, China has strategised to dominate not just the Malacca Straits, but the ocean beyond it. The PLA Navy (PLAN) made its first operational deployment in the Gulf of Aden in 2008; in December 2009 retired PLAN Admiral Yin Zhuo referred to a possible overseas base or facility; in 2010 a China State Oceanic Administration report alluded to plans to build aircraft carriers.

By 2012 China was ready to make the move into the Indian Ocean. A Maritime Rights and Interests Leading Group was established inside the Communist Party. The Report to the 18th Party Congress in the same year saw the first official reference to “building China into a sea-power nation”. The plan was presented as the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in Jakarta in October 2013, carefully wrapped in terms of trade and finance, in order to disguise its dual purpose. While some Chinese scholars advanced the idea of building a “harmonious ocean”, in May 2014 three Chinese researchers affiliated to the China Naval Research Institute laid out the real game-plan in their article, “The Strategic Scenario in the Indian Ocean and the Expansion of Chinese Naval Power”.

Acknowledging that US hegemony and India’s regional influence in the Indian Ocean posed challenges to the Chinese plan, the authors laid out the inherent deficiencies that China needed to overcome, namely that (a) it is not a littoral state; (b) its passage through key maritime straits could be easily blocked; and (c) the possibility of US-India cooperation against China. They suggested that these deficiencies might be overcome by (1) carefully selecting sites to build ports — Djibouti, Gwadar, Hambantota, Sittwe and Seychelles were specifically named; (2) by conducting activities in a low-key manner to “reduce the military colour as much as possible”; and (3) by not unnerving India and America by cooperating at first, then slowly penetrating into the Indian Ocean, beginning with detailed maritime surveys, ocean mapping, HADR, port construction and so on. The Chinese have moved precisely along those lines.

India has be be subdues/subjugated else there is simply no way for the Chinese to dominate the IOR. That is a strategic Chinese imperative. India, OTOH, if it makes progress on its growth trajectory and invests in sea denial capacity, could single highhandedly scuttle the Chinese plans in 10-15 years. In the interim, it is in our interest to align with like minded nations in the Indo-pacific region to build a joint counter.

The Chinese, with their latest Ladakh gambit have accelerated the India/US co-operation to balance China.

While the official establishment continues to deny that the BRI has military or geo-strategic intent, a Chinese scholar at Jiao Tong University has recently acknowledged that the dual-use ports are likely to support future projection of military power.

The Indo-Pacific idea might potentially derail their carefully crafted plans. It is inclusive, participative and evolving through open discussion; the Maritime Silk Road by contrast is a Chinese fait accompli. After initially disparaging the idea, they now wish to cause alarm by raising fears about Great Power “strategic collision” caused by the so-called American-led “containment” strategy. This is the classic Chinese ruse of deflecting attention from the real issue on hand, their efforts to dominate the Indian Ocean. It is important to look past their propaganda. In September 2019, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said: “We are firmly against attempts to use the Indo-Pacific strategy as a tool to counter the BRI or even contain China”. China still thinks in terms of balance of power while speaking about a Community with a Shared Future of Mankind. It should re-consider its position and view the Indo-Pacific idea as an instrument for advancing common interests, and not make it a source of conflict or tension.

Good thing is that IF ex-FS is cognizant of the Chinese strategy, the GOI too would be aware.

[SSridhar]

If we look closely at the rise of China, we can see that it never adjusted its behaviour to accommodate others, only others did so. It has consistently espoused four revisionist notions as inspirations (these waxed and waned depending upon exigencies of times and situations), but have remained constant within CCP. Securing Tibet & Xinjiang, making China a high-income economy, recovering 'lost territories' (HK, Macau, Taiwan,Ryukyu) and change international orders to suit its rise and ambitions.

[pankajs]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... 55adj.html
Lone wolf: The West should bide its time, friendless China is in trouble

India has to be very careful because we share a common but disputed border while others can wait China out form farr.
India, unlike west, had to climb the economic and military ladder to ensure peace of its shared border with China.

[darshan]

Why was such an email drafted to begin with?

Amazon says employees are not being forced to delete TikTok
https://www.androidcentral.com/amazon-e ... eir-phones

Update, July 10 (5:00 pm ET): NBC reporter Kevin Collier has received an email from Amazon that says this message was sent "in error".

[chanakyaa]

https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1 ... 0620446721

The State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Japan of 105 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft and related equipment for an estimated cost of $23.11 billion.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... 55adj.html
Lone wolf: The West should bide its time, friendless China is in trouble

India has to be very careful because we share a common but disputed border while others can wait China out form farr.
India, unlike west, had to climb the economic and military ladder to ensure peace of its shared border with China.

As expected and not quite difficult to predict, uncle is as usual playing all sides. Using Chinese (and NoKo) bogey man to sell military maal to prop up domestic economy is a time tested recipe and works all the time. Seems like India has signed up to play along, in exchange for something tangible and meaningful, hope it is in the area of tech self-sufficiency. Playing along will definitely help settle some old scores and revive home grown industries, but the challenge is that, before those goals are realized, "A" may be done taking of "C" using the help of "I" (and others), and then it will come after "I" with "C" completely neutered. That leaves "A" with no challenger for decades perhaps longer. List of MNCs counting China as their first or second market behind their home market rises each year.

[pankajs]

^^
Unkil has many faults and it take advantage of India wherever possible, selling arms, pushing for more integration with it Mil, its industry, etc to dominate India.

However, in this case it is not playing both sides. It did not instigate China to start the border confrontation nor does it sell arms to China. What is happening on the India/China border is China's own doing and it will force India to re-calibrate its relationship with China, the US, Japan, Australia and the rest of the world.

That re-calibration will necessarily include more co-operation and alignment with US and its allies including defense co-operation. It will also include more weapons purchase from US, its allies and Russia. We simply do not have the local capacity/production to meet the challenges of an aggressive China in and around India.

Vendors/suppliers will not help us getting rid their gravy train. Self-sufficiency has to be developed inhouse. We simply have to invest more in creating a local defense industry that can stand on its own.

We will have to maintain a balance between alignment and integration.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 8747769858

Jeff M. Smith @Cold_Peace_

Now Italy too?

"Telecom Italia excluded China’s Huawei Technologies from a tender it launched this month for 5G equipment for the core network it is preparing to build in Italy and Brazil."

Approved suppliers: Cisco, Nokia, Ericsson, Mavenir/Microsoft.

I guess that BRI MoU Italy signed with China hasn't worked out as expected.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huaw ... SKBN24A2AE
Exclusive: TIM excludes Huawei from 5G core equipment tender

[chetak]

for those brainless and giddy china lovers in India who said that the app ban would have no effect on the hans


ByteDance may move TikTok headquarters out of China as it has come under intense scrutiny in India & US


ByteDance may move TikTok headquarters out of China as India bans app

[KL Dubey]

Kenya has a new railway built by the Chinese.

Thanks for the reflections. Indeed, I am aware that Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania et al haven't exactly been friendly to Indians living there. I think we will have much better success in collaboration without having a large physical presence/Indian community.

[Lisa]

In Kenya, China has invested in the Port of Mombasa and is also building a 450-Km long railway line from the port city to capital Nairobi under a BOT scheme (launched c. 2017) at a total cost of USD 4.5 B. In June 2020, the Kenyan Supreme Court declared a $3.2 billion railways contract awarded to China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) to be illegal. It said that state-run Kenya Railways violated the country's law in procuring the $3.2 billion Chinese funded Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project. Mombasa is one of the 18 foreign naval bases that China has been planning as was leaked in c. 2014.

Further to your note, the reasoning,

"The loan contract Nairobi entered into with Beijing has several clauses that heavily favour China and compel Kenya to make many compromises, with the most controversial one being the waiver of sovereignty on assets."

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Hidden-tr ... index.html

and

"Sovereignty in question

Of chief concern is language that details the scope of assets Kenya must forfeit if it defaults on the loan. According to an excerpt quoted by The Nation, Kenya’s largest independent newspaper, “Neither the borrower (Kenya) nor any of its assets is entitled to any right of immunity on the grounds of sovereignty.”

The contract also stipulates that Kenya must use Chinese “goods, technology and services” in the railway’s construction and operation, and a confidentiality clause prohibits the Kenyan government from disclosing the terms of the contract without Beijing’s expressed written consent."

https://www.voanews.com/africa/kenyan-g ... ract-leaks

also see,

http://chinascope.org/archives/17347

"Another worrisome aspect is a clause that states that any disputes on the loan would only be resolved in Beijing through the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission (Cietac).

The agreement says, “The arbitration award shall be final and binding on both parties. The arbitration shall take place in Beijing.” This effectively blocks other international commercial dispute resolution avenues."