Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 07 May 2020 12:54

US couple’s nightmare: Held in China, away from daughter
Five surveillance cameras recorded his movements, and two guards kept constant, silent watch. They followed Hsu to the shower and stood beside him at the toilet.

Last Updated : May 07, 2020 09:23 AM IST | Source: AP

Five surveillance cameras recorded his movements, and two guards kept constant, silent watch. They followed Hsu to the shower and stood beside him at the toilet.
Lights blazed through the night. If he rolled over on his mattress, guards woke him and made him turn his face toward a surveillance camera that recorded him as he slept. He listened for sounds of other prisoners -- a door slamming, a human voice. But he heard only the occasional roar of a passing train.

Hsu is a U.S. citizen. He has not been convicted of any crime in China, yet he was detained there for six months in solitary confinement under conditions that could qualify as torture under international conventions. Authorities from eastern Anhui province placed exit bans on Hsu and his wife, Jodie Chen, blocking them from returning home to suburban Seattle in August 2017 and effectively orphaning their 16-year-old daughter in America.

Critics say the Chinese Communist Party’s expanding use of exit bans to block people — including U.S., Australian and Canadian citizens and permanent residents — from leaving China reeks of hostage-taking and collective punishment. They also warn that it lays bare China’s will to exert influence, not just over Chinese citizens in China, but also permanent residents and citizens of other countries.

“American citizens are too often being detained as de facto hostages in business disputes or to coerce family members to return to China—this is shocking and unacceptable behavior by the Chinese government and a clear violation of international law,” said James P. McGovern, chair of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China.

Hsu says Anhui authorities have been effectively holding them hostage in order to convince his father, Xu Weiming, to come back from the U.S. and face charges he embezzled 447,874 yuan (worth $63,000 today) over 20 years ago — an allegation Xu denies.

Within China, exit bans have been celebrated as part of a best-practices toolkit for convincing corrupt officials to return to the motherland for prosecution, part of President Xi Jinping’s sweeping campaign to purify the ruling Communist Party and shore up its moral authority. Many corruption suspects fled to the U.S., Australia and Canada, which do not have extradition treaties with China.
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“Try to sit in a room for three hours and tell me how do you feel, just by yourself. You have nothing,” he said in an interview.

Lengthy one, but worth to read.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world ... 34461.html

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 May 2020 12:47

Indian, Chinese troops clash near Naku La in Sikkim sector - The Tribune

Armed troops of nuclear armed neighbours India and China clashed along a section of the boundary in North Sikkim, leading to injuries to atleast 11 troops, including four from the Indian side.

Aggressive behaviour and minor injuries to both sides took place, sources confirmed. Some 150 troops are believed to have been involved in the fracas in which blows were exchanged.

In an earlier incident in 2017 at Pangong Tso (lake) in eastern Ladakh, troops had hurled stones at each other.

"Troops disengaged after dialogue and interaction at local level,” Army officials confirmed Sunday morning about the incident in Sikkim. At least four Indian and seven Chinese troops are said to be injured.

The incident occurred on Saturday in what is the ‘Naku La sector’ ahead of Muguthang, a pass at an altitude of more than 16,000 feet. The section of the boundary is not resolved. India and China have a un-demarcated 3448 km boundary called the Line of Actual Control (LAC) running all along the Himalayan ridgeline in an east-west alignment.

“Temporary and short duration face-offs occur in the summer months as patrols on both sides are resumed,” said a senior functionary.

Military observors point out that both the armies have been aggressive in the past decade or so. The reach of the troops has increased, with better communication and information about each other’s patrol movement and it helps prepare a response to counter it.

As per the existing protocol when troops of either side come face-to-face along the disputed sections of the LAC, they ask either side to return.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 May 2020 12:54

Upping the military ante as in Indo-China Sea while the attention of the world is on tackling the Wuhan Chinese virus?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 May 2020 02:56

Simultaneous Paki terorist surge into J & K. Ladakh and Sikkim by Chinese regulars,not coincidental.They think we are in grave trouble dealing with CV and are unprepared for a swift spat to slice off some territory and create civil war in Kashmir.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 12 May 2020 18:45

Chinese helicopters spotted along Sino-India border in Eastern Ladakh: Sources - ToI

Chinese helicopters were spotted flying close to the undemarcated border between India and China in Eastern Ladakh after around 250 soldiers of both sides were engaged in a fierce face-off near Pangong Lake in the area last week, official sources said. {So, this was another face-off at Pangong Tso Lake, not the one on Sikkim border !! Was there any news about this so far?}

The situation in the area remained tensed after the violent clashes between the troops on Tuesday evening, they said. Next day, both sides agreed to end the face-off at a meeting of local commanders.

The Chinese military helicopters were seen flying close to the Line of Actual Control on at least a couple of occasions following the clashes after which a fleet of Su-30 fighters of the Indian Air Force too carried out sorties in the area, the sources said.

There was no official word on whether the Su-30 jets were rushed in to carry out the sorties in the wake of the face-off and aggressive Chinese posturing in the area.

Following the fracas, both sides brought in additional troops.

The sources said Chinese military helicopters routinely carry out sorties on the Chinese side of the border while Indian Army helicopters also fly in the area.

In the face-off on May 5, scores of Indian and Chinese army personnel clashed along the northern bank of the Pangong Lake and even resorted to stone-pelting.

A number of soldiers on both the sides sustained injuries.

It was the first case of troops from the two sides exchanging blows after a similar incident around the Pangong Lake in August 2017.

In a separate incident, nearly 150 Indian and Chinese military personnel were engaged in a face-off near Naku La Pass in the Sikkim sector of the Sino-India border on Saturday. At least 10 soldiers from both the sides sustained injuries in the incident.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 12 May 2020 19:03

How The Fist That Felled Chinese Army Officer In Sikkim On Saturday Packed Three Generations Of Valour

A young, lean and lithe Indian Army Lieutenant delivered a hard punch to a burly Major of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Saturday afternoon, sending him sprawling to the rocky and sandy ground at Naku La in Northern Sikkim.

The punch left the Major with a bloody nose, but it badly bruised the collective ego of the formidable PLA.

Especially since it was delivered by a very young officer who was commissioned into the army barely a year ago.
According to a senior officer at the Army’s East Command headquarters in Kolkata’s Fort William, the young Lieutenant* was provoked into the act by the PLA Major’s loud claim that Sikkim belonged to China and that the Indian Army had ‘transgressed’ into Chinese territory.

It is learnt that the PLA Major was shouting and moving menacingly towards another young Indian Army officer of the rank of Captain.

The young Lieutenant intervened and threw a punch at the Major, who went reeling and fell on the ground. Even his name tag came off.

The young Lieutenant was in the mood for landing a few more punches, but his colleagues pulled him away.

He was later admonished by his seniors who told him that the humiliating punch could have provoked the Chinese more. But they also lauded him in private.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 12 May 2020 20:16

Very good to read the above.

chola · Post by **chola** » 12 May 2020 20:31

^^^ Our Lt punched out their Mjr trying to attack our Cpt. That's a big win in my book as anyone who grew up playing Stratego will know.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 12 May 2020 22:25

some of these also need to be posted on mil thread..i have not been visiting strat threads that much these days and only visit mil thread and was surprised to see border thread silent on this...

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 13 May 2020 07:21

CCP's Bad cop-Good cop strategy . First incite nationalist sentiment, use it as a leverage or make a point to outsiders and then claim to clam it.

China tries to calm ‘nationalist fever’ as calls for invasion of Taiwan grow

Beijing is trying to calm rising nationalist sentiment after a growing chorus of voices called for China to take advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic by invading Taiwan.

A number of commentators on social media have called for the island to be reunified by force – something Beijing has never ruled out – but some analysts say the authorities want to play a longer game and are now trying to cool the “nationalist fever”.

An article published earlier in the month in the magazine of the Central Party School, which trains senior officials, drew historical parallels with the Qing dynasty’s conquest of the island in the 17th century to highlight the importance of patience and careful planning.

The Qing, who came from Manchuria, seized power in Beijing and northern China in 1644 and gradually consolidated their control over the Chinese mainland in the following decades. But the last remnants of the defeated Ming dynasty fled to Taiwan in 1662 and expelled the Dutch colonists.

The 5,000-word article in Study Times, written by historian Deng Tao, said the Qing had spent the next 20 years preparing for the invasion and conquest of the island and argued that they had also used political, diplomatic and economic measures to achieve their goal rather than just relying on force.

Deng said the Qing had managed to isolate the island’s rulers diplomatically and sent representatives to the island to court support among its Han Chinese residents by offering them incentives to return to the mainland and escape the heavy taxes imposed by their rulers.

In the meantime, the Kangxi emperor had been building up and training an invasion fleet that successfully took the island in 1683 and incorporated it into the Qing empire.

Recently a number of commentators and retired military commanders have called for Beijing to retake control of the island, where the defeated Nationalist forces fled in 1949 following their defeat in the civil war.

Some former military leaders have argued that the United States – which is bound by law to help the Taiwanese government defend itself – is presently unable to do so because all four of its aircraft carriers in the Pacific have been affected by the Covid-19 outbreak.

Some legal commentators, including Tian Feilong, an associate professor at Beihang University, in Beijing, have called on the government to consider the use of force and argued that an “anti-secession” law ratified in 2005 gave it the legal authority to do so.

Tian argued in an article published on the news website Guancha.cn that political and social developments on the island meant it was impossible to resolve the situation peacefully and said anti-government protests in Hong Kong showed that the “one country, two systems model” – which Beijing hoped to use as the basis for reunification with Taiwan – had failed.

But in a separate article published on the social media platform WeChat, Qiao Liang, a retired air force major general who is seen as a hawkish voice on the mainland, argued that now was not the right time to take Taiwan by force. He warned it would be “too costly and risky” and said China should wait until it had the economic and military strength to challenge the US.

Lee Chih-horng, who lectures in cross-strait relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the articles by Deng and Qian indicated that the government wanted to stick to its own timetable for Taiwan unification.

“The Beijing leadership has now realised that they need to cool down the nationalist fever as calls to take Taiwan by force have become too emotional, with many on mainland social media stirring up the topic for attention,” Lee said.

“As Qiao said, Beijing realises now is not a good time to take Taiwan back by force, but [President] Xi [Jinping] will come out up with the ultimate solution to solve the Taiwan issue.”

Two years ago Fang Bing, a professor at the People’s Liberation Army’s National Defence University, told state broadcaster China Central Television that Beijing’s timetable for unification with Taiwan would neither be “slowed down when the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang comes to power, nor stepped up when the DPP becomes the ruling party”.

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 13 May 2020 10:56

X-post from Border watch thread

Ladakh on alert after old flashpoint at Galwan river is back in focus
By Rahul Tripathi, Manu Pubby, ET Bureau|Last Updated: May 12, 2020, 11.45 PM IST

NEW DELHI: The Ladakh sector of India's disputed boundary with China continued to be on alert as reports came in that the Chinese PLA had set up tents close to the Galwan River, an old 1962 flashpoint, and started construction across the Demchok area.

Sources in the security establishment said that the Galwan river area— which saw Chinese aggression in 1962—had been reinforced after a recent face off. While troops are not in direct contact on the ground as of now, both sides have moved forces on their respective sides of the disputed boundary.

Situated in Sub Sector North, the area has long been contested by China with patrols carried out frequently by both sides. Sources said that the current round of confrontation took place at Patrol Point 14, following which appropriate steps were taken. The location is close to the Daulat Beg Oldie airfield that is the lifeline for soldiers posted in SSN.

Tension has been building up along the Ladakh border with reports that a short stand off took place at the Pangong Tso lake as well and intelligence pointing out that close to 1,000 heavy vehicles have moved in across Demchok, possibly for construction activities.

A close eye is also being kept on the Nepal border after inputs that border outposts are being reinforced and “thousands of armed police” personnel being deployed after the recent altercation over construction of a road to the Lipulekh pass.

The army did not comment on the Galwan confrontation but said that short duration face offs do take place as the border dispute with China has not been resolved. Sources in the security establishment said that tension in SSN had been building up over time after aggressive patrolling by the Chinese side.

In Demchok, a close watch is being kept on activities across the border with suggestions that an airfield could be under construction. Heavy construction along the disputed Line of Actual Control is protested by both sides as a violation of the understanding that the border would be left untouched. The Galwan river area has a painful history with China, with PLA soldiers surrounding a freshly set up Indian Army post in July 1962, in what would be one of the early triggers to the Sino-Indo war.

A similar stand off also took place at the Naku La pass in Sikkim this Saturday, , with sources saying that about a dozen soldiers were injured on both sides.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 704121.cms

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 May 2020 11:26

the dumbest tweet put out by a major media house threatening nuclear war.

Dumb even by Global Times’ low standards

Global Times@globaltimesnews · May 10
Although China has fewer nuclear warheads than US, once Chinese detect any nuclear attack from the US, China's warheads are enough to destroy the US in the counterattack, say Chinese experts. A China-US war is unlikely despite rising Washington hostility. https://bit.ly/2YOziAp

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2020 12:47

Typically, Chinese act by creating B (and C and D if needed) when they're concerned about what might be happening at A. That is their standard misdirection approach - don't directly let the other side know how much they value A, but instead create problems at B so the focus at A reduces. A here is Gilgit/Baltistan and COK corridor, and B is Ladakh sector.

This is a shrewd approach because they other side is never directly able to gauge the value of A to them, and is instead busy fighting fires at B, C and D that China themselves created on their own terms. The greatest discomfort to them comes when their main concern is directly attached. This can be gauged by Indian statements or actions directly taking on A.

There's a lesson in it for India too. It's sometimes a good idea NOT to react by defending your main interest even if that's the 'robust' way to respond, but instead misdirect the other side to fight fires you create elsewhere to safeguard your main interest. Letting the other side know too much about what you care about gives them leverage to use that against you.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 13 May 2020 18:33

Will China's other victim neighbors take advantage and get what's theirs back while helping India?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 13 May 2020 19:33

darshan wrote:Will China's other victim neighbors take advantage and get what's theirs back while helping India?

counting on it would be going the pakistan way..lets not count on anyone...looking at the map is there anything Vietnam can do beyond making ships run a few rounds around chinese..given the way things are no one apart from Uncle and Putin would like to precipitate a fight with them

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 13 May 2020 19:35

Suraj wrote:Typically, Chinese act by creating B (and C and D if needed) when they're concerned about what might be happening at A. That is their standard misdirection approach - don't directly let the other side know how much they value A, but instead create problems at B so the focus at A reduces. A here is Gilgit/Baltistan and COK corridor, and B is Ladakh sector.

This is a shrewd approach because they other side is never directly able to gauge the value of A to them, and is instead busy fighting fires at B, C and D that China themselves created on their own terms. The greatest discomfort to them comes when their main concern is directly attached. This can be gauged by Indian statements or actions directly taking on A.

There's a lesson in it for India too. It's sometimes a good idea NOT to react by defending your main interest even if that's the 'robust' way to respond, but instead misdirect the other side to fight fires you create elsewhere to safeguard your main interest. Letting the other side know too much about what you care about gives them leverage to use that against you.

this is pretty much their SOP..we saw this during all the visits (Xi visit) going back to the times when they conducted nuclear tests when Indian delegate was visiting. It should be considered as BAU and should be handled at ground level harshly rather than giving it any undue importance.....at some point things are bound to escalate..

nam · Post by **nam** » 13 May 2020 19:47

It is a game both can play.

If PLA cross over, we cross over and surround them. The Chinese don't want the issue blown up too much, as it means allocating more troops and resources to guard a god forsaken border at 15k+ ft. And they know, news of any bullet fired, can be hidden in China, but it will explode in Indian media, which will then go on to international media and then bank in to China

So we hold our ground. Respond with simple, we will not move, unless both side disengage. The Chinese cannot do much other than going back.

The Western boys want things to escalate on LAC, to bring India in to their camp, while China is desperately trying to prevent it!

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 13 May 2020 20:10

nam wrote:It is a game both can play.

If PLA cross over, we cross over and surround them. The Chinese don't want the issue blown up too much, as it means allocating more troops and resources to guard a god forsaken border at 15k+ ft. And they know, news of any bullet fired, can be hidden in China, but it will explode in Indian media, which will then go on to international media and then bank in to China

So we hold our ground. Respond with simple, we will not move, unless both side disengage. The Chinese cannot do much other than going back.

The Western boys want things to escalate on LAC, to bring India in to their camp, while China is desperately trying to prevent it!

Why are we tolerating foreign militaries incursion? Shoot on sight of LAC violation, ask questions later. Give no space for violations. Would the US allow Canadians troops crossing into its border? If we want people to respect our land borders, we need to have strict deterrent in place.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2020 21:26

nam wrote:It is a game both can play.

If PLA cross over, we cross over and surround them. The Chinese don't want the issue blown up too much, as it means allocating more troops and resources to guard a god forsaken border at 15k+ ft. And they know, news of any bullet fired, can be hidden in China, but it will explode in Indian media, which will then go on to international media and then bank in to China

Yes we are playing that part of the game well, escalating the cost of their misdirections. However it's important to also leave them uncomfortable about their primary concern and emphasize that we're going to make moves on our terms on that.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 May 2020 22:09

Suraj wrote:
nam wrote:It is a game both can play.

If PLA cross over, we cross over and surround them. The Chinese don't want the issue blown up too much, as it means allocating more troops and resources to guard a god forsaken border at 15k+ ft. And they know, news of any bullet fired, can be hidden in China, but it will explode in Indian media, which will then go on to international media and then bank in to China
Yes we are playing that part of the game well, escalating the cost of their misdirections. However it's important to also leave them uncomfortable about their primary concern and emphasize that we're going to make moves on our terms on that.

India china relations are majorly complex where the IA is concerned. That's why the hans prefer to terrorize the politicos of the congi variety so that they get the babuz to muzzle the IA.

India fought china in two battles in 1967 on the china sikkim border, on two passes called cho la and nathu la. The battles took place within a short time of each other and under the always aggressively agile command of Gen Sagat Singh, the hans were thrashed decisively. It left them totally unnerved and very wary of the Indian Army

though the chinese dogs barked loudly in 1971, this was also why the hans did not enter the 1971 war, much to the despair of the pakis.

the Indian Army's surgical separation of beediland was a further incentive for the hans to steer clear of the IA, especially after Field Marshal Manekshaw single handedly overcame political objections and took the time necessary to ready the IA for battle. The IA of 1967 as well as the IA of today had/has no operational connection to the ill supplied, muzzled and poorly led IA of 1962 with illiterate commie politicos cluelessly trying to run the show.

The doklam standoff was also colored by the chinese perceptions of 1967 and not the unfortunately and widely held perception in India of the 1962 debacle.

obviously our commies, naxals and lootyens gangs and their paltu presstitutes did not give the 1967 battles the press coverage it deserved and such was their control over history writing and press reportage and that is also why the presstitutes are very quiet even today.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 May 2020 22:20

Time for some analysis of the Chinese behaviour in these troubled times.

There has been 'mask diplomacy' in which the Chinese diplomats hugely advertised their pittance gifts of (defective) PPEs; forced the receiving countries to acknowledge such gifts etc.

Soon, thereafter, the same Chinese diplomats indulged in 'Wolf Warrior' diplomacy in which they abused their host countries, spoke harshly against ant newspaper/editor who criticized China, launched a vigorous twitter war and responded strongly even against ordinary citizens. The Chinese embassy’s reaction to Spain, Germany, Thailand, Sri Lanka and the Chinese Ambassador’s outbursts in Canberra, Paris, Oslo are shocking behaviour from missions & diplomats.

Militarily too, China provoked issues across the Taiwan Straits, East China Sea, Indo-China Sea, Natuna Sea and the Indian land border at Sikkim (May 9, 2020) and Pangong Tso Lake in Eastern Ladakh (May 5, 2020) and now near Daulat Beg Oldi. All these following things happened in the months of February through May when the Wuhan coronavirus has been crippling all the countries. The Chinese sank a wooden fishing boat of Vietnam within Vietnam's EEZ (and then lied that the wooden boat rammed the Chinese Coast Guard cutter, but video footage proved otherwise), chased a few Japanese fishing trawlers until the Japanese Coast Guard intervened, violated with impunity Indonesia's sovereignty and indulged in banned bottom trawling in Natuna sea surrounded by CCG and Chinese maritime militia in the cloak of fishing trawlers, sent back their survey ship accompanied by a CCG cutter into Vietnam's EEZ, the same survey ship and CCG Cutter forced a Malaysian oil exploration rig to abandon its work in Malaysian EEZ, announced two administrative districts in Indo-China Sea for Paracel & Spratly islands, renamed about 80 features with Chinese names,and conducted a naval exercise with a flotilla which took a detour to Paracel islands while on its way to anti-piracy duties in Gulf of Aden mocking at the American naval assets which are berthed due to outbreak of Covid on board.

At home, it started issues at Naku La (sikkim which is a well settled boundary), Pongong Tso Lake and now at DBO.

What do we make of these? False bravado? Nervous reactions to the impending backlash? Fighting its way through with guns blazing?

As is usual with Chinese diplomacy, they try to achieve more than one objective with their actions.

For one, certainly this is the time for CCP to raise nationalistic fervour among the masses and further consolidate its position. Deflect any latent public anger against the early mishandling by the officials and the apparatchik in Wuhan, including the ill-treatment meted out to the late Dr. Li Wenliang.

Second, Xi would also like to snuff out any revolt (or even a hint of questioning) within the PSC (Politburo Standing Committee). The PSC has three potential discordant voices that would include the PM Li Keqiang and two others who are from the Communist Youth League, a party organ that has been increasingly sidelined by Xi, by cutting off funds etc. They are also Hu Jintao protege. The legitimacy of the Xi Jinping coterie flows from the strength of the CCP. There is therefore the urge to prove to the people of China that CCP has managed the epidemic well while democracies have uncared for their citizens. This is a message to HongKong protestors as well.

Third, China is sending signals to all the countries involved in the above incidents.

For India, we must recall that Wang Yi called our EAM Dr. Jaishankar in late March and requested that China must not be stigmatized. He also issued an indirect warning that otherwise international co-operation would suffer. India is assuming Chairperson of the WHO's Executive Board on May 22. We would play a significant role in unearthing the sequence of events that led to one of the greatest calamities facing humankind. Recently, US Secy of State had a discussion with EAM and also those of Australia, Japan, South Korea et al which included topics such as collaboration toward preventing future global health crises and reaffirming the importance of the rules-based international order. The Quad is right there (US, India, Japan & Oz) under the mask of the others. The Chinese antennae is up and it is perturbed. So, China, the 'Wolf Warrior' is firing a warning shot across the Indian bow.

For Vietnam, the Chinese seem to be very unhappy because the US has seemingly used the Vietnamese cyber groups to gather information from Chinese hospitals and labs about the Covid outbreak. There is another reason too. In late December 2019, Vietnam filed its claim before the Commission on the Limits of Continental Shelf (CLCS). The CLCS set a deadline of May 12, 2009 for submission of claims to extend the EEZ beyond the 200 nm distance. Those countries which were not able to meet the deadline were asked to at least submit preliminary information indicative of the outer limits of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles. While China has not made any submission concerning an extension of the continental shelf in the South China Sea in its preliminary information of May 11, 2009, it stated that it reserves the right to make submissions on the outer limits of the continental shelf that extends beyond 200 nautical miles in the East China Sea and in other sea areas. Malaysia and Vietnam made joint submissions on May 6, 2009. Vietnam also made a partial submission for its north area. Brunei made a preliminary submission. Philippines made a partial submission of an undisputed area. The December 12, 2019 Partial Submission by Malaysia is a continuation of the joint submission it had made with Vietnam in May 2009. It has now completed that process. Malaysia’s 2019 submission acknowledges that there are possible areas of overlapping entitlements in the area subject to its partial submission, and that it may be necessary to resolve the overlapping claims of Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Philippines & Vietnam filed communication with CLCS indicating a possible congruence of positions with Malaysia. China is worried about this ganging up.

For Taiwan, the signalling is that a bottled-up USN was not its security-provider. That was why the mocking of the USN and PLAN’s & PLAAF’s increased violations of the Taiwan Straits. The Taiwanese also angered the Chinese by informing WHO that possible human-to-human transmissions were already happening of the Wuhan coronavirus. The renaming of the Dutch Trade office at Taipei also was a point of sourness for CPC.

Among all doom and gloom caused by the Wuhan coronavirus, China is engaged in dangerous games too.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2020 22:29

chetak: I think these are two different topics. It may be true that the Indian military operations in the Chinese theater have been consistently compelling enough to keep them from doing anything more than dip their toes.

However this is at a 'level of abstraction' more than tactical actions on the ground. It deals with their ability to manage the bigger picture of how they ensure others cannot focus on acting against their prime interests. Whatever PLA faces from IA only impacts the PLA forces on the ground. At the political level of abstraction, they're able to continuously maintain a facade of widespread 'border disagreements/skirmishes' where they really only have two major ones - the Pakistan link and the Tibet-Xinjiang road they built through Aksai Chin.

India is making the right moves by making an explicit reference to Gilgit-Baltistan in official weather statements, and needs to do the same for Aksai Chin and emphasize that they're going to be taken back.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 13 May 2020 22:57

It would be exceptionally poor strategy to pick fights with everyone around China.

This is probably to keep the PLA busy. Xi is afraid for his position.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 13 May 2020 23:13

Is Xi afraid for his position or some military lackey trying to show he is still useful if power transition is likely.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 13 May 2020 23:52

Before we include Taiwan into WHO in any capacity, they have to accept and sign with blood that Arunachal Pradesh and whole former J&K including Aksai Chin are part of India.

They can't expect India to support Taiwan, it will be nothing less than toothpick Chi's belly. Taiwan needs to make a decision sooner as time is passing fast.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 May 2020 00:08

Suraj wrote:chetak: I think these are two different topics. It may be true that the Indian military operations in the Chinese theater have been consistently compelling enough to keep them from doing anything more than dip their toes.

However this is at a 'level of abstraction' more than tactical actions on the ground. It deals with their ability to manage the bigger picture of how they ensure others cannot focus on acting against their prime interests. Whatever PLA faces from IA only impacts the PLA forces on the ground. At the political level of abstraction, they're able to continuously maintain a facade of widespread 'border disagreements/skirmishes' where they really only have two major ones - the Pakistan link and the Tibet-Xinjiang road they built through Aksai Chin.

India is making the right moves by making an explicit reference to Gilgit-Baltistan in official weather statements, and needs to do the same for Aksai Chin and emphasize that they're going to be taken back.

You are overthinking it.

the topics are not different because it shows that the chinese are quite circumspect while dealing with the IA under this govt and that has roots in the past.

the so called two major political dispensations in India have diametrically opposite views on china and how to handle it.

one remains colored by the failed nehruvian defeatest mentality while the other has left that mentality far behind

This is something that one cannot understand, given the same identical resources that each has at its disposal to deal with the situation, one folds completely while the other stands up assertively.

the chinese have multiple global economic worries and also have many things riding on subduing and coercing India into allowing the chinese to have their way in the region. Delay on their plans and aggressive pushback from India hurts them and makes them lose face with other countries now asking for better terms, easing of interest criteria on the OBOR type "loans" and some actually refusing to take on more debt from china.

soon, someone may default on some OBOR payment and china will not be allowed, by someone like the US, for example, to "collect" on the debt by swapping equity. This will lead to a cascade of defaults by other OBOR debtors.

Xi will not risk invading a srilanka or a nepal just to prove a point. Just saying onlee. His inglorious retreat from the maldives must have really stung him and emboldened his enemies.

the chinese focus is not so narrow and limited only to "the Pakistan link and the Tibet-Xinjiang road they built through Aksai Chin". neither of the two is in any position to precipitate anything on these fronts. Xi has a very full plate and he knows that India will not be the aggressor in any case. So he is in a "keep alive" or a "pilot flame" mode with India. The AGNI series has put paid to any plans that he may have had about grinding India down militarily.

At least now, the average Indian knows what china covets is sikkim which means that it has big plans for India's northeast.

the chinese virus has hit china in ways that they did not expect. What was only being whispered about earlier, the chinese perfidy in the OBOR outreach, as well as their shady business practices in a country like australia, is out in the open with trump, as well as the aussies, hitting out at them openly. This chorus is only building along with huawei being turned away from many countries.

so they are back to their first line of attack which is naked aggression on every border and outright bullying of weaker countries like vietnam.

India managing the chinese virus to the extent that it has managed has also made the chinese task difficult.

If the chinese want a significant say in the post virus world, they need to get their mojo back and these jokers know only coercion: either economic or military, to do this.

xi's neck is directly on the chopping block. His enemies are already snapping at his heels and his "president for life" ploy has upset all of the other contenders.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 May 2020 00:51

Thanks for the commentary. I don't agree with you but it's an interesting viewpoint.

nam · Post by **nam** » 14 May 2020 01:08

Here is what I feel are the 3 things, Chinese are expecting of India:

1. India should be "desperate" for border resolution, being ready to agree to maximum of Chinese claims. This "desperation" prevents India from escalating on LAC.
2. Unfettered access to Indian market to Chinese goods and companies.
3. Not allow US access to the region.

All the drama on LAC, Dhoklam, Nepal, interference in Bhutan etc, is to make us "desperate" for LAC resolution. The Chinese cannot escalate as it is very expensive for them to maintain forces on LAC.

Any escalation means disruption of access to the Indian market. It also means US will be invited in by India, if things go bad for us. This also means India tagging along with US plans in SCS.

The Chinese believe they are superior and want an subdued India. But they cannot figure out how to go doing it. The only way to do this to have a "friendly" political dispensation, which I believe they feel will get in a Congress led gov. This is the reason for chai per charcha with Raga during Doklam. I am pretty sure there must have been major funding given by the Chinese to bring together anti-Modi parties in the 2019 election.

Combined with commentary from our idiotic English media, the Chinis were probably very sure of fall of Modi gov in 2019.

This has not happened. So the Mabalpuram summit to mend the fences within 4 months from election results.

nam · Post by **nam** » 14 May 2020 01:16

I don't know what the Chinese will do next, but overall they need an act that shows Chinese superiority.

They will definitely need a Khan style military victory, to show the world. But they need an excuse and a victim, who can be easily defeated. This is important, as once it takes military action, everyone else will become defensive. So it has to be a Gulf war style, a quick TV war and cannot drag on like the Saudis.

They cannot do with India, because we are large, difficult terrain, market access etc. Cannot be taiwan, as they make money out of it. Not Japan, too powerful.

I am not able to put a finger, who that victim might be.

One thing I am confident is that China is coming to Gawadar. Either soon or if Pakistan is economically exploding. If Pakistan economically fails, Chinis will do a Russia Crimea style capture of Gwadar.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 May 2020 01:46

nam wrote:I don't know what the Chinese will do next, but overall they need an act that shows Chinese superiority.

They will definitely need a Khan style military victory, to show the world. But they need an excuse and a victim, who can be easily defeated. This is important, as once it takes military action, everyone else will become defensive. So it has to be a Gulf war style, a quick TV war and cannot drag on like the Saudis.

They cannot do with India, because we are large, difficult terrain, market access etc. Cannot be taiwan, as they make money out of it. Not Japan, too powerful.

I am not able to put a finger, who that victim might be.

One thing I am confident is that China is coming to Gawadar. Either soon or if Pakistan is economically exploding. If Pakistan economically fails, Chinis will do a Russia Crimea style capture of Gwadar.

gwadar and the pakis is not going to be the cheeni play.

They already have that right now and a few more pieces of silver will get them what they want far more easily.

If the hans decide to fight, the entire gamut of countries opposing them will be quite large in numbers. The hans are welcome nowhere and neither are they popular anywhere. It's only the han money that is getting them into places where they are tolerated.

a failed pak is a grave danger to the entire region with uncontrolled jehadis hiring out to the highest bidder.

along with India, china will be hit even harder by the jehadis because of their coercive tactics against the uighurs

china will thus prop up the paki army as the single point contact to manage the general paki situation and continue with the hit and run tactics in cashmere.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 14 May 2020 02:09

Ashokk wrote:How The Fist That Felled Chinese Army Officer In Sikkim On Saturday Packed Three Generations Of Valour
A young, lean and lithe Indian Army Lieutenant delivered a hard punch to a burly Major of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Saturday afternoon, sending him sprawling to the rocky and sandy ground at Naku La in Northern Sikkim.

The punch left the Major with a bloody nose, but it badly bruised the collective ego of the formidable PLA.

Especially since it was delivered by a very young officer who was commissioned into the army barely a year ago.
According to a senior officer at the Army’s East Command headquarters in Kolkata’s Fort William, the young Lieutenant* was provoked into the act by the PLA Major’s loud claim that Sikkim belonged to China and that the Indian Army had ‘transgressed’ into Chinese territory.

It is learnt that the PLA Major was shouting and moving menacingly towards another young Indian Army officer of the rank of Captain.

The young Lieutenant intervened and threw a punch at the Major, who went reeling and fell on the ground. Even his name tag came off.

The young Lieutenant was in the mood for landing a few more punches, but his colleagues pulled him away.

He was later admonished by his seniors who told him that the humiliating punch could have provoked the Chinese more. But they also lauded him in private.

Mogambo khush.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 14 May 2020 03:39

nam wrote:I don't know what the Chinese will do next, but overall they need an act that shows Chinese superiority.
They will definitely need a Khan style military victory, to show the world. But they need an excuse and a victim, who can be easily defeated. This is important, as once it takes military action, everyone else will become defensive. So it has to be a Gulf war style, a quick TV war and cannot drag on like the Saudis.
They cannot do with India, because we are large, difficult terrain, market access etc. Cannot be taiwan, as they make money out of it. Not Japan, too powerful.
I am not able to put a finger, who that victim might be.
One thing I am confident is that China is coming to Gawadar. Either soon or if Pakistan is economically exploding. If Pakistan economically fails, Chinis will do a Russia Crimea style capture of Gwadar.

Sugarland will not attack unless it gets a 100% sure victory. Any thing less will mean a loss of face that will embolden its enemies, and there are plenty of enemies all over. They have much to lose if these enemies start working together. The question is can Sugarland repeat 1962 once again, get a quick win and retreat after declaring victory? Logic says no. But they are passionate gamblers.
Gautam

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 14 May 2020 03:53

Time to churn out LCA Mk1s, Akash, Astra, and push all nuke subs into water.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 14 May 2020 04:34

One more catch . . . .

NASA researcher arrested over alleged secret China connections
Justin Vallejo
The IndependentMay 13, 2020, 1:32 PM CDT
The FBI confirmed the shooting will be investigated by its Inspection Division: Getty
The FBI confirmed the shooting will be investigated by its Inspection Division: Getty
A university professor funded by NASA has been arrested for allegedly keeping connections to the Chinese communist government a secret from US authorities.

The FBI arrested University of Arkansas professor Simon Saw-Teong Ang, 63, for allegedly defrauding NASA and the university "by failing to disclose that he held other positions at a Chinese university and Chinese companies".

An electrical engineering professor and researcher at the University of Arkansas-Fayetteville since 1988, Mr Ang was charged with one count of wire fraud for not including his ties to China on a successful grant submission to NASA worth more than half a million dollars.

"These materially false representations to NASA and the University of Arkansas resulted in numerous wires to be sent and received that facilitated Ang's scheme to defraud," the Department of Justice said in a statement.

In an affidavit to the US District Court for the Western District of Arkansas, unsealed on Monday, FBI special agent Jonathan Willett alleged that Mr Ang failed to report his involvement in China's Thousand Talents Scholar program between 2012 and 2018, apart from one year's disclosure in 2014.

"Talent plans integrate foreign technology into China by recruiting experts from businesses and universities across the globe to fill technical jobs that drive innovation and growth in the economy," Mr Willett wrote in the affidavit.

"Various Chinese government talent programs use financial, personal, and professional benefits in exchange for working with universities, businesses and state-owned enterprises in China."

Since 2013, Mr Ang has been either the primary investigator or co-investigator on US government-funded grant contracts totalling more than $5m from NASA, the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, and the Department of Defence, according to the affidavit.

It is alleged that Mr Ang committed the wire fraud in connection to a successful 2016 submission to NASA without disclosing his participation in the Thousand Talents program or work with Chinese companies, including Binzhou Maotong Electronic Technology, Binzhou Gande Electronic Technology and Jiangsu Xuanzhi New Materials and Technology.

According to the FBI affidavit, the NASA contracting officer overseeing Mr Ang's grant said that if they had of know about Mr Ang's involvement with China, they would not have awarded the contract.

"Specifically the CO [Contracting Officer] pointed out that Ang's associations with PRC companies would have been an immediate red flag," the affidavit said.

Mr Ang's alleged Chinese connections were revealed when a university employee found a hard drive in the campus library and looked through emails to find the owner.

In one 2018 email exchange between with a visiting researcher from Xidian University in Xian, China, Mr Ang said the current political climate was making his situation at the university difficult.

"You can search the Chinese website regarding what the US will do to Thousand Talent Scholars," Ang wrote, according to the affidavit.

"Not many people here know I am one of them but if this leaks out, my job here will be in deep troubles [sic]. I have to be very careful or else I may be out of my job from this university."

"After you read this e-mail, please delete for safety sake as any e-mail can be retrieved."

In a statement to The Independent, University of Arkansas spokesman John Thomas said Mr Ang had been suspended.

"Simon Ang has been suspended without pay from his responsibilities with the university and the university is actively cooperating with the federal investigation in this matter," Mr Thomas said.

In a College of Engineering Facebook post dating back to 2011, the university said that Mr Ang was also the honorary president of Xi'an Aeronautical Polytechnic College in Xi'an, China.

"He helped set up the first Boeing-certified aircraft maintenance engineering program in China. This program trains and certifies students to work on Boeing aircraft," the post says.

If convicted, Mr Ang faces a maximum of 20 years in prison.

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 14 May 2020 06:11

chetak wrote:
Suraj wrote:chetak: I think these are two different topics. It may be true that the Indian military operations in the Chinese theater have been consistently compelling enough to keep them from doing anything more than dip their toes.

However this is at a 'level of abstraction' more than tactical actions on the ground. It deals with their ability to manage the bigger picture of how they ensure others cannot focus on acting against their prime interests. Whatever PLA faces from IA only impacts the PLA forces on the ground. At the political level of abstraction, they're able to continuously maintain a facade of widespread 'border disagreements/skirmishes' where they really only have two major ones - the Pakistan link and the Tibet-Xinjiang road they built through Aksai Chin.

India is making the right moves by making an explicit reference to Gilgit-Baltistan in official weather statements, and needs to do the same for Aksai Chin and emphasize that they're going to be taken back.
You are overthinking it.

the topics are not different because it shows that the chinese are quite circumspect while dealing with the IA under this govt and that has roots in the past.

the so called two major political dispensations in India have diametrically opposite views on china and how to handle it.

one remains colored by the failed nehruvian defeatest mentality while the other has left that mentality far behind

This is something that one cannot understand, given the same identical resources that each has at its disposal to deal with the situation, one folds completely while the other stands up assertively.

the chinese have multiple global economic worries and also have many things riding on subduing and coercing India into allowing the chinese to have their way in the region. Delay on their plans and aggressive pushback from India hurts them and makes them lose face with other countries now asking for better terms, easing of interest criteria on the OBOR type "loans" and some actually refusing to take on more debt from china.

soon, someone may default on some OBOR payment and china will not be allowed, by someone like the US, for example, to "collect" on the debt by swapping equity. This will lead to a cascade of defaults by other OBOR debtors.

Xi will not risk invading a srilanka or a nepal just to prove a point. Just saying onlee. His inglorious retreat from the maldives must have really stung him and emboldened his enemies.

the chinese focus is not so narrow and limited only to "the Pakistan link and the Tibet-Xinjiang road they built through Aksai Chin". neither of the two is in any position to precipitate anything on these fronts. Xi has a very full plate and he knows that India will not be the aggressor in any case. So he is in a "keep alive" or a "pilot flame" mode with India. The AGNI series has put paid to any plans that he may have had about grinding India down militarily.

At least now, the average Indian knows what china covets is sikkim which means that it has big plans for India's northeast.

the chinese virus has hit china in ways that they did not expect. What was only being whispered about earlier, the chinese perfidy in the OBOR outreach, as well as their shady business practices in a country like australia, is out in the open with trump, as well as the aussies, hitting out at them openly. This chorus is only building along with huawei being turned away from many countries.

so they are back to their first line of attack which is naked aggression on every border and outright bullying of weaker countries like vietnam.

India managing the chinese virus to the extent that it has managed has also made the chinese task difficult.

If the chinese want a significant say in the post virus world, they need to get their mojo back and these jokers know only coercion: either economic or military, to do this.

xi's neck is directly on the chopping block. His enemies are already snapping at his heels and his "president for life" ploy has upset all of the other contenders.

Instead of guessing what they will do. Can we push the conversation towards liberating Taiwan and Tibet from Chinese control? I'm getting sick of second guessing what the Chinese will do. The conversation will be better served if we as think tank put our mental resources towards annexing PoK, CoK, Liberating Tibet and Taiwan. Create pathway to central asia, add buffers to Chinese border. We have been in this limbo for too long. Let's create a five year plan to do this and figure out the budget, the allocation of funds to do the research, the allocation of funds for the counter-espionage, the specifications for the necessary infrastructure, and a military strategy to execute the takeover. The title of the thread is neutering and defanging the Chinese threat. So let's use brain cycles to achieve that goal. I care less about what they are planning, but rather want to focus on how we attack. We are spinning and wasting brain cycles trying to guess what they will do. It's a waste of time. India needs to define the playground and bring the stick for the ass whooping.

I want to hear about:

What is the MVP to achieve this?
What are our gaps in our military?
What do we need to invest in?
When do we attack?
1) Define the minimum amount of material resources to build the MVP
2) Use the momentum to create and organize war gaming infrastructure.
How do we attack?
1) Create the war game infrastructure
- discrete event simulation
- inventory management
- command and control infrastructure
- network centric infrastructure
- sensor modalities and how to deploy them
- interdisciplinary military exercises
- create scenarios and use cases
- create and store a repository of these scenarios and use cases
How much capital needs to be raised?
Which allies do we recruit?
What's the strategy to rally political support to achieve this goal?
1) How do we support these people politically, financially?
2) How do we organize different populations within India and educate them?
3) What is our channel for dissemination of information?
Who is bringing this to the table in our political landscape?
Which countries will likely support this?
Who do we need to arm?
What coalition organization is necessary?
How do we blunt their response?
How do we neutralize their assets on the Indian border and Eastern front?
What investment body can be formed in India to finance and materialize the ideas from such a think tank?
Who's ego do we need to massage, to get leverage that helps us in the cause?

My two cents: stop bitching and start war gaming the attack to take back PoK, CoK, Liberate Tibet and Taiwan. We can use this time to do time pass chai biscuit analysis or use the same time to create and enable the country to launch this attack

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 14 May 2020 08:52

Australian John Lee explains the China threat and how to manage it.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 May 2020 11:41

@Sravan

why don't you start the ball rolling.

It's so easy to put out a set of demands and ask that others flesh it out.

I want to hear about:

why don't you expand on each point that you want to "hear" about

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 14 May 2020 11:46

chetak wrote:@Sravan

why don't you start the ball rolling.

It's so easy to put out a set of demands and ask that others flesh it out.

Sure, we need to first recognize that this will be a series of decisions that leads to an outcome. First we need to establish a 2025 timeline. Strategically identify the outcome.

I can lead the initiative, but I need volunteers who will do some homework that I can delegate.

1) Acquire all land from PoK through hook or crook (Volunteer 1)
- what we need to compile:
1) total population in PoK
2) strategy to occupy PoK from Jammu & Kashmir
3) Strategic control points we need to control (what towns, which mountain ranges, etc)
4) Repopulate J/K + PoK using population from rest of India
5) Creating an environment to do this with contracting work / permanent settlement

2) Acquire all land from CoK through hook or crook (Volunteer 2)
- stoke the Taiwan fire at WHO
- Shoot at sight for LAC incursions
- Repopulate Aksai Chin from J/K using population from rest of India using Civil Contracts to transplant migrant workers

3) Establish partnerships in central asia (Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, etc) (Volunteer 3)
- Create a central asian oil and gas pipeline project that we secure through PoK. Install security apparatus to defend and hold this territory
- What are the investment opportunities for India in these countries (what acquisitions can we do in these countries to get an immediate presence)

4) Establish a new definition of the silk road (incorporate democratic principles) (Volunteer 4)
- Create a new route to Europe and South East Asia, Engage China via Taiwan only. Block FDI from China, Allow FDI through Taiwan
- Establish a military base in Taiwan for joint military training
- Include Taiwan in Navy exercises

We need to achieve this by 2021. I need to have each volunteer take up each milestone and share their game plan on how to achieve this. We can compile those scenarios into a knowledge base.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 May 2020 11:51

Sravan wrote:
chetak wrote:@Sravan

why don't you start the ball rolling.

It's so easy to put out a set of demands and ask that others flesh it out.
Sure, we need to first recognize that this will be a series of decisions that leads to an outcome.

India is not in that place either economically or militarily or even strategically to

commit resources towards annexing PoK, CoK, Liberating Tibet and Taiwan. Create pathway to central asia, add buffers to Chinese border.

so why not start smaller and work your way up from there, one manageable bite at a time.

Painting on too wide a canvas at the very start will lose focus of the critical details

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 14 May 2020 11:56

chetak wrote:
Sravan wrote:
Sure, we need to first recognize that this will be a series of decisions that leads to an outcome.
India is not in that place either economically or militarily or even strategically to

commit resources towards annexing PoK, CoK, Liberating Tibet and Taiwan. Create pathway to central asia, add buffers to Chinese border.
so why not start smaller and work your way up from there, one manageable bite at a time.

Painting on too wide a canvas at the very start will lose focus of the critical details

Please refer to my post above. I need at-least 3 volunteers to help me to pick up some of those topics. Are you familiar with the 80/20 rules. It only takes 5-10% of the total energy required to get to 80%. It takes the other 95% to 90% to finish the other 20%. We can get to 80% with limited resources by 2023-2024 if we focus on what is important.