Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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kit
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

srin wrote:
What’s happening in Tonga is a microcosm of China’s expanding global influence and why the United States is losing ground fast.
Way things are going gun toting Unkle has slung up his gun and gone back to his house leaving the streets to the chinks with their shiny toys singing siren songs.

Just a matter of time for the Chinks to "take over" Taiwan. Game over.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by jamwal »

https://defence.capital/2021/09/05/chin ... dy-report/
China bought influence in Bollywood, universities, think-tanks, tech industry: Law and Society Alliance study report
A research study has shown that China has lavishly spent huge sums of money to buy influence in India’s film world, universities, social institutions, research think-tanks, social media, and the tech industry, posing a serious threat to national security and democracy.

The 76-page Study Report titled ‘Mapping Chinese Footprints and Influence Operation in India’ released by the Law and Society Alliance on Sep.3 tries to identify how deep and extensive the Chinese foothold in India is.

The report covers a wide range of topics and identifies key elements and ways in which Chinese intelligence services and the Chinese Communist Party government have entrenched themselves into various Indian sectors from the entertainment industry to academia.

Besides highlighting the Indian industries and areas where China has over the years increased its influence through strategic investments, the report also touches upon Beijing’s hidden agenda in increasing its influence to shape the opinion of the common man, the voters, in India.

Through a combination of financial investments, as seen in the entertainment industry, to propaganda in the socio-political realm through Confucius Institutes, Beijing is using every trick in its playbook to make in-roads into the Indian economy and society in order to try and advance its own selfish narrative and to create discord within the Indian society with regard to China’s actions and motives.

1. Influence on Indian Entertainment Industry

In the last few years, China has repeatedly tried to make incursions into the Indian entertainment industry and influence Bollywood through the mechanism of co-productions of movies.

The clearest evidence of Beijing attempting to influence Bollywood was the hosting of the China-India Film Co-Production Dialogue at the Beijing International Film Festival in 2019. The Chinese influence even successfully managed the participation of prominent Indian cinema icons like Shah Rukh Khan and Kabir Khan.

The report also highlights how the Chinese Communist Party has created a lobby group headed by an Indian lobbyist specifically for the Indian film industry.

Beijing’s influence has been subtle but systematic. The Chinese have managed to win over prominent individuals in film regulatory bodies that have ensured that Chinese interests are well represented in Bollywood, or at the very least not harmed.

One instance of this is how the Chinese successfully influenced the producers of the film “Rockstar” to blur a flag that had “Free Tibet” written on it that was shown in a popular song of the film.
6. Exploitation of Tech Sector Interdependence

India’s budding tech sector has also not been able to escape the clutches of China. Since 2015, China and Chinese firms have invested around $7 billion in the Indian tech sector. Coupled with many acquisitions, Chinese companies have become major shareholders of some of India’s biggest tech companies.

Another worrying development that has been aptly highlighted in the report is the powerful reputation that Chinese telecommunication giant, Huawei, shares among Indian business leaders and policy communities.

Huawei has had its global reputation tarnished by being labelled as a pawn of the Chinese Communist Party and for carrying out espionage operations against foreign nationals.

7. Gaining Mileage through Political Patronage

One of the easiest ways for a country to influence another nation is through its leaders. Chinese influence over the years has slowly permeated into India’s political environment as well.

One of the examples highlighted by the Law and Society Alliance report is how the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) has refrained from criticising or rebuking China.

Despite its meek stance against China, over the years, the CPI-M has not shied away from aggressively questioning Indian government’s foreign policy decisions on China and have even alleged that New Delhi was succumbing to Washington’s pressure.

While this alone does not indicate a Chinese ploy, there is ample evidence provided in the report of how CPI-M received cash and kind from China. CPI-M leaders have also strongly criticised the Indian media and academia for holding China responsible for the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.
FULL REPORT: https://defence.capital/wp-content/uplo ... INDIA2.pdf
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by ritesh »

That looked like a check dam.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58426878

Six managers of an Italian company that makes military-grade drones for Nato have been reported to prosecutors after a lengthy investigation by financial crimes police.

Tax police said the takeover of the unnamed company in north-east Italy, had broken arms laws.

Investigators said a firm based in Hong Kong had bought a majority stake in the drone company at 90 times its value.

But the real buyer, they said, was two state-owned companies in China.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

So the Chinese are sh!t hot in drones, are they?

They need Italian technology which is likely 3 generations behind the US
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... a-7514515/

Former World Bank chief pushed staff to boost China rankings, says inquiry report

Former World Bank chief Kristalina Georgieva took over as IMF chief shortly before the biggest global economic crisis in the Fund's 76-year history, prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

World Bank leaders, including then-Chief Executive Kristalina Georgieva, applied “undue pressure” on staff to boost China’s ranking in the bank’s “Doing Business 2018” report, according to an independent investigation released Thursday.
...
...
It said Georgieva, and a key adviser, Simeon Djankov, had pressured staff to “make specific changes to China’s datapoints” and boost its ranking at a time when the bank was seeking China’s support for a big capital increase. Kim did not respond to a request for comment. Djankov could not be immediately reached.

China’s ranking in the “Doing Business 2018” report, published in October 2017, rose seven places to 78th after the data methodology changes were made, compared with the initial draft report. The “Doing Business” report ranks countries based on their regulatory and legal environments, ease of business startups, financing, infrastructure and other business climate measures.
...
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Vadivel »

The Headaches Plaguing China’s Exporters and How They Are Hurting Trade
By Luo Zhiheng

This year, we have witnessed the post-pandemic recovery of the global economy. Despite various challenges, such as the recovery of global production, the decline of overseas demand and the weak U.S. dollar index, China has maintained rapid, although somewhat fluctuating, growth in exports in the first half of 2021, with the monthly export volume continuously rising beyond the market expectations.
There are two reasons for this surge. The first is that the structural adjustments in export products have continued and major exports have shifted from anti-epidemic supplies and consumer durables to intermediate goods necessary for resumed global production. The second reason is that China has expanded its exports to emerging markets, especially to Southeast Asia.
Weekend_long_read_chart1

However, some worrying signs has started to appear. The year-on-year ratios of the seasonally adjusted exports and the export delivery value have shown a slowing trend since April. The global export rebalancing will lead to a shift from Chinese production to global production. In addition, the full resumption of the overseas economies will drive the substitution effect of the overseas supply and demand.
Foreign trade and foreign-invested companies in China are important parts of its economy. Our survey shows that they are faced with four major challenges today, which will put pressure on foreign trade growth in the second half of 2021.
Headache 1: Shipping blockage
For foreign trade companies, shipping is the most important mode of transportation for goods. Over the past year, the international shipping sector has seen an increase in demand and shortage of supply, hurting China’s exporters and importers.
The worldwide spread of COVID-19 and the short supply of crew have resulted in the reduced capacity of cargo ships along the international routes. Meanwhile, the global economy and foreign trade demand have generally recovered, causing a supply-demand imbalance that raises freight rates. In addition, ports have introduced stricter pandemic prevention and control measures for people and goods, actively weakened their handling capacity and lengthened the clearance time, resulting in reduced shipping efficiency. Especially noticeable is the issue of closed hub ports, as this forces cargo ships to take longer routes, possibly causing the break of the entire shipping chain.
Weekend_long_read_chart2

The global cancellations and delays for ocean shipping routes have gone up. Since the beginning of the year, freight charges have skyrocketed, while the on-time delivery rate (OTDR) has declined. In August, the spot rates for the routes from Shanghai to New York and to Los Angeles soared, with an increase of over 10%, more than doubling; the spot rates for major routes to Europe increased by more than 3% compared to the previous month, more than five times year-on-year.
According to Sea-Intelligence’s report, the OTDR of shipping companies around the world has been around 40% since March 2021, but it dropped to 35.6% in July, close to the low level at the beginning of the year. In July, the average OTDR of China’s major coastal ports has even gone below 20%.
Weekend_long_read_chart3

As a result, the continuous rise in freight rates will squeeze their profits. Notably, small and midsize companies lack protection from long-term agreements, making it difficult for them to get deliveries on time, causing them to get caught in delays which further trigger inventory backlog and cash flow shortage. Because of this, they find themselves in a dilemma where they dare not receive orders as they cannot make profit from exports.
Headache 2: Short supply of materials
Key materials for the products of Chinese foreign trade companies are in short supply, thanks to the unstable industrial transfer and Covid-19.
For one thing, amid Covid-19, developed economies like the United States have imposed stricter restrictions and protection on strategic industries and sensitive sectors. Chinese foreign trade and foreign-invested companies have been deeply engaged in the international production network, making them more dependent on the resilience and stability of the supply chain. In particular, when it comes to high-tech firms, the industrial policies have been restrained by the global economic and trade landscape. Therefore, many companies are making efforts to improve their stocks of key parts and components and further diversify supply channels while transferring production bases closer to home and implementing production transfer in different regions.
The duration of the Covid-19 impact has been beyond expectations. The short supply of semiconductor chips has had an especially great impact on enterprise production.
For example, the short supply of chips of upstream enterprises has given rise to the shutdown or production reduction of downstream carmakers. IHS Markit predicted that nearly 1 million vehicles would be facing forced delays in the first quarter of 2021. According to AlixPartners, the impact of chip shortage will cause an income loss of $60.6 billion to the global automobile industry in 2021. Malaysia is a major manufacturing region for semiconductors. In August, Malaysia’s intensified pandemic situation led to the shutdown of some VCU chip lines for electric vehicles, further affecting foreign trade in automotive electronics. The supply-demand imbalance caused by Covid-19 cannot be resolved in a short time.
In the long run, to secure the national industrial chain, simultaneous layouts at home and abroad should be made to address the raw material issue.
Read more
Q&A: How One Foreign-Invested Firm Is Doing in China
Headache 3: Price surge
For foreign trade companies, the rise in prices of bulk commodities has pushed the prices of industrial raw materials up, lowering the profits of exporters at the production end. The central government has issued a number of policies, such as the promotion of import diversification and the establishment of stable channels for bulk commodities, to stabilize foreign trade.
The general rise in prices of bulk commodities since the beginning of the year has been driven by the global supply-demand imbalance and mobility. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a typical indicator for global trade. The continuous rise of BDI is mainly attributed to the price surge of bulk commodities. In particular, the prices of black commodities, such as coal, have been rising, which has led to continuous new highs of freight rates.
Weekend_long_read_chart4

Multiple factors like the decline of coal imports and short supply of domestic coal have lead to a negative supply-demand relationship in the domestic coal market, leading to the sustained high level of the coal price in the first half of this year. To control the coal price, national authorities including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have implemented several measures over the past two weeks to increase the coal capacity and comprehensively implement new strategies for the low-carbon energy transition.
Headache 4: Workforce crunch
Foreign trade companies have played an important role in stabilizing Chinese employment. But the current demographic trend has caused an irreversible rise in labor costs.
The post-pandemic labor market in China is facing a more prominent structural shortage of laborers. Foreign trade companies, especially cost-driven processing companies, are the worst affected.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, China’s labor shortage has worsened, especially in the manufacturing industry. According to the list of the top 100 occupations with the most acute shortage of labor released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, as of the second quarter of 2021, the employment gap (recruitment needs minus the number of applicants) increased rapidly, from 850,000 in the first half of 2020 to 1,021,000, a rise of 20.1%.
Weekend_long_read_chart5

The labor shortage of the manufacturing industry accounted for 38%, while the gap for general workers with low technical requirements accounted for 55.3% in the manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the highly skilled talent gap is widening.
The post-pandemic distribution of employment in the shared service industry has also aggravated the labor shortage in the manufacturing industry. In China, about 830 million actors participated in the sharing economy in 2020, including around 84 million individuals engaged in providing service and 6.31 million employees of digital online platforms, a year-on-year rise of 7.7% and 1.3% respectively, as estimated by the Sharing Economy Research Center under the State Information Center.
The new employment pattern in the platform-based sharing economy entails inclusivity and flexibility for workers, which not only solves the post-pandemic employment pressure but also helps to reduce the uncertainty of the employment market. Meituan, a Chinese delivery service platform, has absorbed many secondary workers during the pandemic. According to the Report on the Employment of Meituan Riders released by the Meituan Research Institute, over 35% of delivery riders used to work in factories.
Weekend_long_read_chart6

Outlook for China’s exports
As we look into the future, exports will gradually drop to pre-pandemic levels from the pandemic high. Given the gradual rebound in industrial production and de-China-ization in the global industrial chain, it is inevitable that China’s exports will see a marginal decline from the current high level.
This year’s unexpectedly high exports provide a window for boosting solid and sound economic growth. The resilient export is a result of China’s supply-side fiscal stimulus, which aims to ensure security in operations of both market entities and foreign trade entities, thus protecting the integrity of the supply chain amid global economic uncertainty.
There are still sources of hope.
Although the pressure of counter-globalization and de-China-ization still persists, market behaviors in some Western countries may act entirely different from what the governments and politicians wished for.
While developed countries which have gone through a period of deindustrialization find it hard to rebuild their manufacturing systems, emerging economies fail to absorb the incoming orders. Great uncertainties driven by vaccine shortages and the lack of binding force of non-drug-related COVID-19 prevention measures have prevented these emerging countries from becoming the substitutions of China.


Luo Zhiheng is deputy director of Yuekai Securities Research Institute.

https://archive.ph/bnWVG

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-09-18 ... 74763.html
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

Evergrande troubles punish China property as contagion concern spreads

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 021-09-20/

There's a ripple effect from the Evergrande liquidity problems in the Chinese real estate market, with Sinic Holdings losing 87% market value before trading was halted.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

Tofu economy come crashing!
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

https://airpowerasia.com/2020/07/06/chi ... ive-story/

On 2 March 1969, a group of people’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops ambushed Soviet border guards on Zhenbao Island. According to the Chinese sources, the Soviets suffered 58 dead, including a senior colonel, and 94 wounded. The Chinese losses were reported as 29 dead. According to the Soviet/Russian sources, no fewer than 248 Chinese troops were killed on the island and on the frozen river, while 32 Soviet border guards were killed, 14 wounded

The scholarly consensus is that the 1969 Sino-Soviet border crisis was a premeditated act of aggression orchestrated by the Chinese side. All of the documents speak of the Chinese as the aggressors. Even most Chinese historians now agree that on 2 March 1969, PLA forces planned and executed an ambush, which took the Soviets completely by surprise. The PLA had prepared for this confrontation for two to three months. From among the units, the PLA selected 900 soldiers commanded by army staff members with combat experience. They were provided with special training and special equipment. By the end of the day, with the Chinese in full control of the island, Soviets deployed then-secret BM-21 “Grad” multiple rocket launchers. The Soviets fired 10,000 artillery rounds in a nine-hour engagement with the Chinese along with 36 sorties. The attack was devastating for the Chinese troops and materiel. Chinese troops left their positions on the island, following which the Soviets withdrew back to their positions on the Russian bank of the Ussuri river.

On 5 May 1969, Kosygin traveled to India, an arch-enemy of China’s ever since it had been defeated in the 1962 war, to discuss with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi an anti-Chinese Soviet-Indian alliance

To Summarize Chinese Approach to Disputes

China occupies 38,000 sq km Indian territory in Aksai Chin. It also stakes claim on Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. It was this expansionist policy that led to the recent clashes between the PLA and the Indian Army. China’s global cartographic aggression has no parallel. The periodicity with which China changes its territorial claims gives an indication that the Communist Party of China (CPC) randomly picks old maps that suit China’s hegemonic expansionist ambitions.

Practically in all disputes they have tried to expand territory. Be that with Russia, Pakistan, Tajiks, and in the South China Sea. In all these cases the countries chose not to stand up or fight the Chinese. The Vietnamese fought. Taiwan and Japan are taking firm stand. India has been taking a firm stand in last few year


India is the Bulwark that needs to remain strong and has to be joined by other forces inimical to Chinese designs. China always quotes historical maps that suit their narrative for boundary claims. As Bhutanese journalist Tenzing Lamsang writes “If we are to go by territorial claims then Greece, Rome, Mongolia, Spain and Britain should divide the world between the five of them. They would have maps, treaties, proof of tributes, evidence of rule and what not”.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

Not sure if this report is selective news, but the tife seems to be turning for China

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by NRao »

PLA Unrest: Why Xi Is Worried
Protests at this time when efforts are underway to strengthen the PLA and keep morale high would be worrying for the military leadership, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and distinguished China expert.
By JAYADEVA RANADE

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and, for that matter particularly after the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese people are very apprehensive of chaos (dongluan) or social upheaval.

The CCP is especially concerned at the possibility of students, workers and retired soldiers coming together against the regime.

Restructuring of the military and reforms implemented by Xi Jinping has demobilised 300,000 soldiers who have swelled the ranks of the millions already unemployed.

The economic downturn, further accentuated by the Covid pandemic has raised the levels of inequality in Communist China to among the highest in the world.

The possibility of dissatisfaction among ex-servicemen spreading to serving People's Liberation Army personnel, who retire in the thousands each year, has added to the leadership's concerns.

Obviously aware of complaints regarding low pensions and inadequate financial support, the CCP leadership has over the years taken a number of steps to address their difficulties.

Most recently, Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for China's ministry of national defence, announced substantial financial benefits for military personnel.

On July 29, he unveiled that according to a notification issued by the Central Military Commission on July 7, 2021, starting August this year eligible military personnel will begin receiving parental support benefits of RMB 600 per month. This is for individuals who have one parent over the age of 60.

The other subsidy of RMB 500 per month is to support the spouses of active military personnel.

Simultaneously, stringent public security measures and enhanced restrictions on the Chinese media have contributed to fewer reports of protests by China's 57 million veterans and ex-servicemen.

Public security authorities are also very alert to any signs of protests being organised and crackdown promptly.

Public security authorities in any case prevent petitioners, or people with grievances, from traveling to Beijing during sensitive or periods.

Despite such steps, Beijing witnessed a rare, major, protest demonstration by demobilised and veteran soldiers this month.

On September 13, more than 200 veterans from across China managed to avoid barriers and detection by public security authorities and arrived in Beijing.

They assembled outside the headquarters of the Central Military Commission, which is chaired by Xi Jinping, and shouted slogans demanding military veteran's rights and complained about inadequate retirement benefits.

The Epoch Times reported that a large police force was mobilised and 137 of the 200 demonstrators were arrested. The rest of the veterans fled from the scene.

The arrested veterans were sent to Beijing's 'jiujiangzhuang' unofficial detention center and have not yet been released.

It is very likely that those arrested will be awarded stiff sentences as a deterrent to others.

In a similar protest by veterans in Zhejiang province in 2019, nine persons were arrested and sentenced to 2 years of prison for the crime of gathering people to disrupt social order.

China's leadership has taken a number of steps over the past few years to ameliorate the living standards of retired and veteran soldiers.

A Ministry for Veterans Affairs was established under the State Council in 2018 and various schemes introduced for the re-employment and rehabilitation of ex-servicemen in coordination with provincial and local governments and state-owned enterprises.

The persistent issue of lack of respect for them in Chinese society, perhaps because the bulk of them come from rural areas, has also been sought to be addressed.

Local governments have been instructed to affix 'honour boards' outside their residences.

However, despite these measures and consecutive year-long ideological and political campaigns throughout the PLA emphasising 'absolute obedience' to the CCP, complaints about inadequate benefits, low morale and indiscipline persist.

On August 15, the People's Daily published an article by Liu Guoshun of the Political Work Bureau, National Defence Mobilization Department, Central Military Commission.

Liu pointed out that since the 18th Party Congress 'a series of laws and policies concerning the status and rights of soldiers have been intensively promulgated, and the supporting facilities have been improved, making soldiers a profession respected by the whole society'.

He called for publicising and implementing 'these favorable policies and regulations well' for recruiting high-quality soldiers.

The appearance of these articles suggests a high incidence of such instances in PLA units.

On May 20, 2021, two PLA officers from the Political College of National Defense University and the Joint Logistics Support Force Longyan Comprehensive Warehouse Support Team, jointly authored an article published by the Chinese government's largest think-tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, expressing serious concerns about the PLA rank and file's adherence to the party's absolute leadership over the army.

They asserted that 'the party's absolute leadership over the army is the fundamental principle of our party's army building and ruling the army', but this is facing new challenges today.

Among the contributory factors, they listed the pace of military modernisation and rejuvenating the army; new methods of building the army at the grassroots level; the "profound new changes" in mission requirements, including the composition of officers and soldiers and troop organisation; and the external social environment.

The article stressed the importance of clearing out 'the fog of thought'.

The sentiments were indirectly echoed the same week in a Liberation Army Daily article by a member of PLA Unit 31006.

He asserted that 'Party members must enhance their sense of honour' and bolster the 'sense of pride as a member of the party organisation'.

He urged soldiers to emulate the 'infinite loyalty to the party' of veteran revolutionaries and the manner they cherished the 'honourable title of "Communist"'!

The protest at this time when efforts are underway to strengthen the PLA and keep morale high would be worrying for the military leadership.

Their major worry will be that this dissatisfaction could spread to serving PLA personnel since the tenure of service of Chinese conscripts is short and thousands are demobilised each year.

Jayadeva Ranade, former additional secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, is the President, Centre for China Analysis and Strategy.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by anupmisra »

The economic slowdown in china, when it comes, will be debt driven. Most Chinese companies are over-leveraged with unsustainable debt obligations coming due in a short time. In particular, the chini real estate companies borrowed insane amounts of money from chini banks based on overly aggressively optimistic valuations. Double dipping did not help either.

The communist party is not interested in helping these real estate companies survive. This will require pumping in capital into the market thus making their yuan lose its value versus the US Dollar.

Real estate added a third of the valuation to the chinese economy when the going was good. Watch this space over the next 12 months. Reminds me of 2008.

Beyond Evergrande’s Troubles, a Slowing Chinese Economy
Global markets have watched anxiously as a huge and deeply indebted Chinese property company flirts with default, fearing that any collapse could ripple through the international financial system.
Retail sales were much weaker than expected last month in China, led by slow car sales. Industrial production has slackened, particularly for large freight trucks. And developers sharply reduced new housing projects over the summer, while rushing to finish the projects they had already started.
Heavy government spending on new rail lines, highways and other projects is keeping the economy afloat right now, but may not be sustainable through next year.
Markets have been riveted by the idea that Evergrande could be China’s “Lehman moment,” a reference to the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank back in 2008, which kicked off the global financial crisis.
Overcapacity in many industrial sectors, coupled with a faltering construction sector, have prompted economists to predict slower growth.
On Tuesday, Bank of America lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth next year to 5.3 percent from a previous forecast of 6.2 percent.
It also would be considerably slower than the official growth rates China has posted in recent years.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/busi ... Position=1
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by chanakyaa »

While the world was busy with UNGA bonhomie, someone blinked (as expected), and Xiden won. Trudeau waited to win one more election and folded...so predictable.

Huawei CFO Meng free to return to China after striking deal with U.S. to end extradition
OTTAWA — Senior Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was released Friday after striking a deal with U.S. prosecutors in courtroom developments that will have major consequences beyond North America.

The Chinese telecom giant’s chief financial officer is free to return to China after a legal battle that started nearly two years ago....
Added l8r: Trudeau says two Canadian citizens accused of spying by Beijing boarded plane home, hours after Huawei executive’s release.
Last edited by chanakyaa on 25 Sep 2021 08:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ Diplomacy is the art of giving everyone a sense of victory they can sell to their people. Canada should (hopefully) get its imprisoned citizens back, and maybe some Chinese trade as well. China will get their SOE's heiress back. US will get a boatload of money and a guilty plea.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Pratyush »

Well the hieress did make a deal with US prosecutors. So she got released, once she got released the Canadian hostages were released.

This sequence of events is quite interesting. PRC has admitted that Huawei, is a front organization. Regardless of what they claim about it in the future.

Huawei must not be allowed to operate in India.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

Pratyush wrote:
This sequence of events is quite interesting. PRC has admitted that Huawei, is a front organization. Regardless of what they claim about it in the future.

Huawei must not be allowed to operate in India.
All those shiny seductive handhelds bleeping back to their chinese masters :x
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/worl ... istan.html
For India’s Military, a Juggling Act on Two Hostile Fronts
Tensions with China and Pakistan stretch a cash-starved military, while the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban removes a potential ally.
Mujib Mashal and Hari Kumar, Sept. 24, 2021

CHANDIGARH, India — After the deadliest clashes in half a century with China, India’s military has taken emergency measures to reinforce a 500-mile stretch of the border high in the Himalayas.
In the past year, it has tripled the number of troops in the contentious eastern Ladakh region to more than 50,000. It has raced to stock up on food and gear for freezing temperatures and 15,000-foot altitudes before the region is largely cut off for much of the winter. It has announced that an entire strike corps, an offensive force of tens of thousands more soldiers, would be reoriented to the increasingly contentious frontier with China from the long, volatile border with Pakistan.
India’s military is now grappling with a reality that the country has feared for nearly two decades: It is stuck in a two-front conflict with hostile neighbors — and all three are nuclear armed.
And it comes as India increasingly finds itself isolated in its broader neighborhood, part of the global security backdrop to President Biden’s discussions on Friday with India, Australia and Japan, the group known as the Quad.
China has made investments and inroads from Sri Lanka to Nepal. The victory in Afghanistan by the Taliban, a movement nurtured and harbored in Pakistan that has increasing ties to China, has essentially shut out India from a country it saw as a natural ally in the regional balance.
Even if all-out war on its borders is unlikely, the sustained posture is sure to bleed India financially. With the coronavirus pandemic exacerbating an economic slowdown, a force that was already stretched on resources and struggling to modernize finds itself in what current and former officials describe as a constant and difficult juggling act.
The breakdown of trust between the giant neighbors is such that a dozen rounds of talks since the deadly clashes last year have contained the tensions, but they have not resulted in de-escalation. Both nations are likely to remain on war footing, even if they never go to war.
China may have the advantage.
While India is adept at high-altitude combat, it is up against a Chinese military that is far better funded and equipped. China, with an economy five times the size of India’s, is also investing heavily in the region, countering Indian influence.
China and Pakistan already share deep ties. Any collaboration to stir trouble would test the Indian military reserves.
Gen. Ved Prakash Malik, a former chief of the Indian army, said the clashes in the Galwan Valley last year, which left at least 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers dead, had fundamentally changed India’s calculation.
......
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush wrote:Well the hieress did make a deal with US prosecutors. So she got released, once she got released the Canadian hostages were released.

This sequence of events is quite interesting. PRC has admitted that Huawei, is a front organization. Regardless of what they claim about it in the future.

Huawei must not be allowed to operate in India.
The heiress did make a deal with the US prosecutors after the US was given a list of 'Chinese grievances' (much like the 14 point public list that China released to Sydney Morning Herald) to Wendy Sherman during her visit to China in July. Meng's release was one of them. Intense back channel work has been going on since then.

China has used several forms of coercion in its international relationship, and these include diplomatic, military, economic and political. It has employed a judicious mix of these forms of coercion depending upon the exigencies of circumstances. We still do not know whether the Chinese coercion worked here or not or Biden simply decided to pluck the low-hanging fruit.

The two Michaels, Kovrig and Spavor were released simultaneously by China along with Canada’s release of Meng Wanzhou. China continues to deny that the two Michaels were arrested as an act of retaliation and even more so that they were released in a quid-pro-quo. It would be interesting to know under what provisions of the Chinese law were the two Canadians released! One of them, Spavor, had already been sentenced to 11 years for spying. Speaking after Ms. Meng’s release, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said the charges against Ms. Meng were fabricated and it was a ‘political persecution’. She did not comment on what the charges against the two Michaels were!
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

SSridhar wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Well the hieress did make a deal with US prosecutors. So she got released, once she got released the Canadian hostages were released.

This sequence of events is quite interesting. PRC has admitted that Huawei, is a front organization. Regardless of what they claim about it in the future.

Huawei must not be allowed to operate in India.
The heiress did make a deal with the US prosecutors after the US was given a list of 'Chinese grievances' (much like the 14 point public list that China released to Sydney Morning Herald) to Wendy Sherman during her visit to China in July. Meng's release was one of them. Intense back channel work has been going on since then.

China has used several forms of coercion in its international relationship, and these include diplomatic, military, economic and political. It has employed a judicious mix of these forms of coercion depending upon the exigencies of circumstances. We still do not know whether the Chinese coercion worked here or not or Biden simply decided to pluck the low-hanging fruit.

The two Michaels, Kovrig and Spavor were released simultaneously by China along with Canada’s release of Meng Wanzhou. China continues to deny that the two Michaels were arrested as an act of retaliation and even more so that they were released in a quid-pro-quo. It would be interesting to know under what provisions of the Chinese law were the two Canadians released! One of them, Spavor, had already been sentenced to 11 years for spying. Speaking after Ms. Meng’s release, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said the charges against Ms. Meng were fabricated and it was a ‘political persecution’. She did not comment on what the charges against the two Michaels were!
The charges were for espionage. I don't think it's unusual for states to exchange assets, including spies, unceremoniously.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

Pratyush wrote:Well the hieress did make a deal with US prosecutors. So she got released, once she got released the Canadian hostages were released.

This sequence of events is quite interesting. PRC has admitted that Huawei, is a front organization. Regardless of what they claim about it in the future.

Huawei must not be allowed to operate in India.
No Chinese corporation can reach the size of Huawei without significant connection to the Chinese government, and the US is absolutely right to be concerned about a Chinese company building telecom infrastructure in the US and elsewhere. With that said, I'd imagine that if say the VP of Google was arrested in Belarus on behalf of Russia, the US probably wouldn't shy away from playing dirty to get him back. That wouldn't mean Google is a front organization of any sort, it would just mean that Google is an organization with national importance.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Pratyush »

You never know, the Google VP might just be left to rot in prison. Because the company is a seperate legal entity from the promotors and it's officers.

Nothing to do with it being a company of national importance.

This is also not the first time PRC has played such a trick. The arrest of multiple Rio Tinto employees in the late last decade is a case in point.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote: The charges were for espionage. I don't think it's unusual for states to exchange assets, including spies, unceremoniously.
Yes, the charges of the two Michaels were known.
Meng Wanzhou was not arrested on spying charges.
I was referring to the 'immediate punishment' concept of China. And, the sequence is very important to buttress this coercive strategy.

The retaliation against Canada was swift, soon after Meng was arrested. Within a week, Canada’s ex-diplomat and North Korea specialist Michael Kovrig, who works with International Crisis Group [ICG] as its North East Asia Senior Adviser, was detained in China on 7th December 2018 {date is not clearly known because he simply disappeared one day} on accusations of harming national security. A few days later, China arrested Michael Spavor, an entrepreneur specializing in business with North Korea and Sarah D. McIver, a Canadian teacher for ‘working illegally’. However, Sarah McIver was released within a few weeks. The Chinese police have powers to hold an accused in their custody for 37 days without access to any legal assistance by the accused.

On May 16, 2019, the day that Trump signed the executive order leading to ban of Huawei, China formally charged Kovrig and Spavor. In early January 2019, the Chinese court imposed death penalty on a convicted Canadian drug smuggler, Robert Schellenberg (arrested in c. 2014), who had earlier been sentenced to 15 years. However, a retrial was ordered suddenly after the Huawei case happened and based on ‘fresh evidence’, the sentence was enhanced to death. In August 2021, the death sentence was ‘confirmed’ by a higher court.

In May 2019, Michael Kovrig, an ex Canadian diplomat and now a business consultant who was detained in northeast China, was accused of “stealing and providing state secrets for abroad,”. The timing of their charges uncannily coincided with US ban on Huawei. On June 19, 2020, the Chinese Public Prosecutor said that a public prosecution for gathering state secrets and intelligence had been initiated against Kovrig in the Second Branch Court of the People’s Procuratorate of Beijing while Spavor was being prosecuted by the Dandong Procuratorate in Liaoning province for stealing and providing state secrets to foreign countries. This announcement by China came three weeks after Meng lost her legal bid to prevent being extradited to the US. On the day, the Canadian Court at Vancouver started its final courtroom process of ‘committal hearings’, a Chinese court announced that it had convicted Canadian Michael Spavor of espionage and sentenced him to 11 years’ jail.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by sanjaykumar »

Chinese court? :rotfl:
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

SSridhar wrote:
DavidD wrote: The charges were for espionage. I don't think it's unusual for states to exchange assets, including spies, unceremoniously.
Yes, the charges of the two Michaels were known.
Meng Wanzhou was not arrested on spying charges.
I was referring to the 'immediate punishment' concept of China. And, the sequence is very important to buttress this coercive strategy.

The retaliation against Canada was swift, soon after Meng was arrested. Within a week, Canada’s ex-diplomat and North Korea specialist Michael Kovrig, who works with International Crisis Group [ICG] as its North East Asia Senior Adviser, was detained in China on 7th December 2018 {date is not clearly known because he simply disappeared one day} on accusations of harming national security. A few days later, China arrested Michael Spavor, an entrepreneur specializing in business with North Korea and Sarah D. McIver, a Canadian teacher for ‘working illegally’. However, Sarah McIver was released within a few weeks. The Chinese police have powers to hold an accused in their custody for 37 days without access to any legal assistance by the accused.

On May 16, 2019, the day that Trump signed the executive order leading to ban of Huawei, China formally charged Kovrig and Spavor. In early January 2019, the Chinese court imposed death penalty on a convicted Canadian drug smuggler, Robert Schellenberg (arrested in c. 2014), who had earlier been sentenced to 15 years. However, a retrial was ordered suddenly after the Huawei case happened and based on ‘fresh evidence’, the sentence was enhanced to death. In August 2021, the death sentence was ‘confirmed’ by a higher court.

In May 2019, Michael Kovrig, an ex Canadian diplomat and now a business consultant who was detained in northeast China, was accused of “stealing and providing state secrets for abroad,”. The timing of their charges uncannily coincided with US ban on Huawei. On June 19, 2020, the Chinese Public Prosecutor said that a public prosecution for gathering state secrets and intelligence had been initiated against Kovrig in the Second Branch Court of the People’s Procuratorate of Beijing while Spavor was being prosecuted by the Dandong Procuratorate in Liaoning province for stealing and providing state secrets to foreign countries. This announcement by China came three weeks after Meng lost her legal bid to prevent being extradited to the US. On the day, the Canadian Court at Vancouver started its final courtroom process of ‘committal hearings’, a Chinese court announced that it had convicted Canadian Michael Spavor of espionage and sentenced him to 11 years’ jail.
Indeed, it was clearly hostage diplomacy, and I think China wanted to make it clear as well without ever openly acknowledging it.

With that said, I wouldn't frame it as anything done to Canada. I mean, technically it's true, but Canada isn't really an independent country, they had no real power to decide anything in this saga. They'll ban Huawei, officially or unofficially, because the US wants it to, and they'll arrest or release Meng, because the US wants it to. Everything was done for the US to see.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Lohit »

Why Chinese conquest of Taiwan is a given and "total-war" war with India highly likely - a minefield created by Chinese miscalculations and unabashed ambition

(Long post / Essay)

Let me preface this post by taking stock of how India and China view each other.

Chinese perception

From a Chinese POV, India is viewed as a nation that is all too willing to ally itself with Western powers to "contain" China - a permanent red flag for the Chinese given its "century of humiliation". India is seen to have been saddled by its colonial rulers with questionable territorial claims in Aksai Chin, that its leaders have always been under pressure to re-claim, which led to Nehru's "forward policy" and the rout of the Indians by the PLA in '62, despite dogged resistance by rank and file troops. Indian politicians are seen to demonize China time and again, and the Indian public is seen as being unable to reconcile itself to the "humiliation" of '62 and always raring for "revenge". India is also seen irreverent to China the super-power while kow-towing to Western powers, all too keen to join schemes against China which allow a fundamentally and historically "weak" India to punch above its weight and assume parity with China.

Indian perception

From an Indian POV the Chinese appetite for territory appears endless and manifest. The core of it lies with Mao's "Five Fingers of Tibet" policy which aims to incorporate the 'five fingers' of Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh to the 'palm' that is Tibet. Once this 'fist' forms, the likely punch will obviously be aimed at India. Add to this, China's geo-pol-millitary coupling with India's self-appointed "eternal" rival Pakistan to encircle it has done nothing to ameliorate India's fears. Chinese moves in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Bhutan are perceived as continuation of China's policy to encircle India in its own neighborhood and eventually bring it to heel. India's strategic thinkers have therefore time and again ranked China as India's #1 enemy and not Pakistan who's 'threat quotient' has only gone down since the '65 war.

So who's fault is it?

Mao's maximalist policies, inspired from those of Imperial China and its supposed "kingdom", led to the conquest of Tibet. The same philosophy exists more or less today as well, as China aims to grab a large chunk of the South China sea, annex Taiwan and make large chunks of Central Asian states its protectorates. The policy is less communist and more chauvinistic/imperial.

Chinese leaders are guided by a quixotic notion of un-ending territorial conquest. They use the "century of humiliation" as a pretext to flame territorial aggression, despite the West's facilitation of the Chinese economic super-miracle and its geo-political rise.

While it may seem irrational to a normal person that in the nuclear age, an all-out war will break out, we must bear in mind that the final decision maker in Beijing is essentially a powerful, autocratic dictator - not a breed best known for rational decision making. China may try to emulate Hitler's "wunder waffen" approach, from space based weapons, EMP bombs, hyper sonic ABM shields to massive pre-emptive nuke strikes to presumably decapitate India and other perceived "weak" democracies. So an assumption that nukes cancel out "total-war" is fallacious.

Of course this may seem like a foolish and misguided notion, but then why did Hitler attack Moscow or Tojo attack Peral Harbor? Dictators are often swept by their own delusions and Xi is cut from the same cloth.

The fundamental miscalculation from China's dictator is too assume that India has been a historically weak and enslaved nation, that always buckles under external aggression. What they don't account for is under a unified political and millitary regime under Brit rule, India projected power to entirety of mainland China, Indo-China, Central Asia, Middle East and Africa. India even with the loss of Pakistan and Bangladesh remains a tremendous millitary power that can supply an endless army and hard power projection platforms. In Russia, it has a permanent ally that views containing China with the same degree of existential urgency, despite seeming Sino-Russian entente. The current entente is very similar to the uneasy Nazi-Soviet entente and is likely to meet the same fate.

The other miscalculation is that if Taiwan is conquered, it would make the rest of Asia including India buckle in its stance. If anything, it would transform weak configurations such as Quad into hard millitary treaties and surround China with red-lines, crossing which would invite war. To me, a Chinese conquest of Taiwan seems very likely but it will result in the end of an equivalent of the "phoney war" period of WW2. The West will make accommodations to Russia and in return Russia will play a role similar to what China played during the cold war. China will be surrounded with a veritable "wall of spears" and face tremendous economic pressure and total geo-pol isolation, leading to a demise of Chicom rule, much like the one met by Soviet Union.

Essentially, even if US and its allies display cold-feet at containing China post a Taiwan war, India will take the lead in this regard and get the job done.

From the Chinese POV, the window of opportunity for "easy" aggressive conquest is narrowing given the increasing magnitude of power disparity between India and Pakistan and its subsequent dialing down of the two-front war threat, that would make things far easier for China. From a Chinese POV it is very desirable that India-Pak indulge in a "total" war that even if it decapitates Pakistan, leaves India extremely weakened and ripe for Chinese conquest.

Similarly, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea are only going to rapidly expand their millitary capabilities given the monumental US shift of focus to Asia, despite Beijing Biden. Hence the time to act from a Hitler-esque POV, for China, is now.

Does India have the resources and determination to withstand China?

From a resource and weapons perspective, the entire world, except China and Pakistan, would double down to support India in terms of its war effort as a subjugated India would in effect bring the entirety of Asia under China's belt and would make it the pre-eminent geo-pol, economic and millitary power on all continents except perhaps North America, free to do with the world as it pleases. And even then, the US would be reduced to a second rate, inconsequential power in Pax-Sinica.

From an admittedly subjective POV, I would venture to say that India will not "buckle" under a Chinese onslaught. The fact that India has doggedly fought off insurgencies that would have seriously tested the mettle of any other country in terms of the cost imposed - in Punjab, Assam, Central India (Maoists) and the ongoing one in Kashmir means that the Indian peoples are willing to pay the price for India's territorial sovereignty, and fight out a long bloody war. Indian army and pride associated with it is the one factors that all Indians regardless of denomination get behind. Moreover, the current right-ward nationalistic shift of the country's polity solidifies this trend greatly.

It is unsurprising that Indian Communists are infiltration INC and global communists are putting all their might to push off Modi with someone like Rahul who will lay down the red carpet to welcome PLA into New Delhi.

What would a (impossible) solution look like to achieve "permanent peace" and what is the most likely "achievable" solution to stave off war?

A solution to me looks highly unlikely for all concerned parties.

In an ideal world, China's communist dictators would give up territorial aggression, re-instate Tibet and Xin-Jiang as a semi-independent buffer, end Mao's 5 fingers doctrine, and allow Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan to exist in a very loose UK commonwealth style system. It de-militarizes North Korea and facilitates their re-unification. China also gives up its claims in South China sea and is compensated by EEZ's elsewhere by say France - which has disproportionately higher EEZ territory vs China which has disproportionately lower EEZ territory.

Western nations, especially US de-militarize South Korea, enable its unification and stop arming Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam in China's neighborhood and withdraw from all Asian bases, even the ones in Middle East and Europe. Japan and the West would perhaps pay reparations and come together to apologize in Beijing in a live televised ceremony. These countries would perhaps make constitutional amendments to assure China that they will never again play any sort of geo-political role in Asian affairs.

Russia would agree to scale back its role as the security guarantor of Central Asia and create further neutral buffers between China and itself.

Pakistan would stop being an jihadist nation, defined by being anti-India as its core existential raison d'etre and end its self appointed role of "liberating" Indian muslims by breaking India up.

India having nothing to fear would let Kashmir be independent amongst other states especially in the North East and would devolve into a confederacy of states politically like, say the European Union. It also makes constitutional guarantees to trans-Himalayan states, most importantly to China that it will not be party to any geo-political configurations aimed at them.

Obviously, none of these laughably naive assumptions are going to come true at all.

The most likely way, in my view, that war can be averted is if there is a change from Xi to a ruler who is more dovish in his approach. That at least staves off war and buys us a few more decades of peace, till the next Xi comes up.

I am not indulging in any arm-chair jernailing to war game a "total war", as i rather like reading such analyses done by resident oldies and feel it is best left to them.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Anoop »

The Australia-China trade spat, leading to reduced coal imports, is probably worsening the situation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193
As the world starts to reopen after the pandemic, demand for Chinese goods is surging and the factories making them need a lot more power.

Rules imposed by Beijing as it attempts to make the country carbon neutral by 2060 have seen coal production slow, even as the country still relies on coal for more than half of its power. And as electricity demand has risen, the price of coal has been pushed up.

But with the government strictly controlling electricity prices, coal-fired power plants are unwilling to operate at a loss, with many drastically reducing their output instead.

The state-run Global Times newspaper said there had been outages in four provinces - Guangdong in the south and Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning in the north east. There are also reports of power cuts in other parts of the country.

Companies in major manufacturing areas have been called on to reduce energy usage during periods of peak demand or limit the number of days that they operate.

Energy-intensive industries such as steel-making, aluminium smelting, cement manufacturing and fertiliser production are among the businesses hardest hit by the outages.

Official figures have shown that in September 2021, Chinese factory activity shrunk to the lowest it had been since February 2020, when coronavirus lockdowns crippled the economy.

Concerns over the power cuts have contributed to global investment banks cutting their forecasts for the country's economic growth.

Goldman Sachs has estimated that as much as 44% of the country's industrial activity has been affected by power shortages. It now expects the world's second largest economy to expand by 7.8% this year, down from its previous prediction of 8.2%.

Globally, the outages could affect supply chains, especially towards the end-of-the-year shopping season.

Since economies have reopened, retailers around the world have already been facing widespread disruption amid a surge in demand for imports.

The China Electricity Council, which represents generating firms, has also said that coal-fired power companies were now "expanding their procurement channels at any cost" in order to guarantee winter heat and electricity supplies.

However, finding new sources of coal imports may not be straightforward.

Russia is already focused on its customers in Europe, Indonesian output has been hit by heavy rains and nearby Mongolia is facing a shortage of road haulage capacity
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

China can just produce more coal, so long as the government is willing to relax environmental and safety standards temporarily. The other issue is that electricity price is capped in China, which makes coal-fired power plants unprofitable with current prices, so many are shut down or running at half capacity. To counter this China can liberalize electricity prices, at least for industrial users.

Australian thermal coal export to China is a drop in a bucket, banning them obviously doesn't help the situation but it's not a big factor either. It does have outsized impact compared to its absolute amount, because particularly in coastal regions there are many plants that are designed to burn higher quality thermal coal that Australia provides. Still, so long as the Chinese government is willing to allow the mining and burning of lower quality, dirtier domestic coal, and they're willing to allow utilities companies to raise electricity prices, this wouldn't be an issue. Coking coal is another matter, but with reduced steel production its impact is significantly mitigated.

My guess is that China will do both of what I suggested. Lift the electricity price cap, and relax environmental and safety standards, at least temporarily.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by M_Joshi »

The question is why did the oh so forward looking CCP henchmen let the situation get this bad. Especially when the matter of Australian Coal is involved. China's whole stance was the they don't need Aus coal to survive, but it's vice versa that Aus needs China to import their coal to survive. Now Winnie the Pooh has egg on his face after this fiasco & more hilarious is the attempt to hide behind CO2 emissions facade. Since when has China cared for the environment? Chinese domestic coal production was always there. Only variable that has changed is the Aus coal.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by yensoy »

Uncapping the price of energy is hardly a simple or straightforward step. There are all sorts of downstream ramifications to the Chinese industry, especially the low-value-addition industry that is a huge driver of exports if energy costs were to spike upwards. Remember, these folks are already suffering from rapidly rising labour costs, rise of RMB (and the need to maintain USD pricing) and other input cost inflation. Raising energy prices will decimate them, unless of course the governments step in and make good the difference through subsidies. Local governments aren't exactly swimming in money either since their cash cows (land "sales") have dried up.

Reducing safety standards... I hope you are joking onlee.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

M_Joshi wrote:The question is why did the oh so forward looking CCP henchmen let the situation get this bad. Especially when the matter of Australian Coal is involved. China's whole stance was the they don't need Aus coal to survive, but it's vice versa that Aus needs China to import their coal to survive. Now Winnie the Pooh has egg on his face after this fiasco & more hilarious is the attempt to hide behind CO2 emissions facade. Since when has China cared for the environment? Chinese domestic coal production was always there. Only variable that has changed is the Aus coal.
I think they made a mistake there. They probably thought that the pandemic is a good time to cut emissions, punish Australia, and advance in green energy all in one go. They probably didn't expect the speed and ferocity of the recovery.

No, Chinese coal production was not always there. There have been deep cuts in recent years, including earlier this year when safety standards were raised ahead of the centennial celebration for the CCP. You only need to look at the global coal prices to tell that it's not a simple issue of China cutting off Australian coal. For example, latest reports are that India is buying some of the Australian coal stranded outside Chinese ports at a $15-20 a ton discount. That would make the price about $220 a ton instead of the $235-240 a ton right now. Before the pandemic it was trading at the $50 - $125 a ton over the 10 years or so period.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by kit »

DavidD wrote:
M_Joshi wrote: For example, latest reports are that India is buying some of the Australian coal stranded outside Chinese ports at a $15-20 a ton discount. That would make the price about $220 a ton instead of the $235-240 a ton right now. Before the pandemic it was trading at the $50 - $125 a ton over the 10 years or so period.
Looks like Australia is looking to India to take up the exports lost vs China., their trade minister was in Delhi looking for offset deals., maybe they could provide uranium as well
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by Cyrano »

It seems the quality of Chinese coal is lower than the Australian coal and plants designed for the former can't easily adapt to the latter and vice versa. Though Australian coal is a fraction of China's consumption, the problems arising from stopping Aus imports create a non-linear impact.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by g.sarkar »

Way back in prehistoric days, when I was involved with the steel industry, India was importing coal from Australia even when India has a good supply of coal. India did not need Australian coal to produce electricity, but for its steel industry. Australia is the world's largest exporter of coking coal, also known as metallurgical coal. This is the stuff you add to iron to make steel, and Indian coal was inferior, so we relied on Australian imports. I am sure the same must be true for China, which has a sizeable steel industry.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

The problems with the Chinese are two fold:

1. They do not want military flights within their EEZ. Their EEZ itself is contested because of overlapping claims. Their position in the Indo-China Sea (the nine-dash or the ten-dash line) has been struck down by ITLOS under UNCLOS.

2. On the contrary, they want to violate with impunity those of the other nations. For example, last year, one of their naval ships masquerading as a fishing vessel was conducting bathymetry research in the A&N Sea and was driven out by IN. Instances like this are plenty. Innocent passage through even the Contiguous Waters (12 nm adjacent to the Territorial Waters) is allowed, but the Chinese want to extend their control all the way to the EEZ.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by DavidD »

Deans wrote:For critics who say we don't project strength:
Taiwan has had a massive airspace violation by the PLAAF on 2 consecutive days. 35+ aircraft each day incl. SU-30's and nuclear capable bombers.
Neither Taiwan or the US could respond. Japan and Australia haven't condemned it.
I'm fairly sure any airspace violation into our border would result in our attempting to shoot down the aircraft. If China felt sure of getting away with it they would have done it.
It was Taiwan's ADIZ, which is pretty huge and actually extends hundreds of miles into mainland proper. Also, China has only one type of dedicated bomber, the H6, an ancient platform, so specifying that China sent "nuclear capable bombers" is just sensationalizing.

Image
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

g.sarkar wrote:Way back in prehistoric days, when I was involved with the steel industry, India was importing coal from Australia even when India has a good supply of coal. India did not need Australian coal to produce electricity, but for its steel industry. Australia is the world's largest exporter of coking coal, also known as metallurgical coal. This is the stuff you add to iron to make steel, and Indian coal was inferior, so we relied on Australian imports. I am sure the same must be true for China, which has a sizeable steel industry.
Gautam
I believe that's still true. The coking coal from Australia would be much harder to replace.

On a separate note, there's no question now that Xi is aiming to implement some massive reforms, we'll see how he handles things. There'll be some pain for sure. It's interesting to me that at the start of this Cold War 2.0, major American moves have been directed outwards, while major Chinese moves have been directed inwards. Very different strategies.
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Re: Quad News and Discussion- June 2021

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote:It was Taiwan's ADIZ, which is pretty huge and actually extends hundreds of miles into mainland proper. Also, China has only one type of dedicated bomber, the H6, an ancient platform, so specifying that China sent "nuclear capable bombers" is just sensationalizing.
It is in Chinese, but, the Legend shows that tracks of various aircraft. They are into the south western ADIZ of Taiwan. Pratas is your aim, isn't it?

Mainland China should not complain about an imaginary ADIZ overlapping a small part of its land when it claims the whole of the South China Sea (Indo-China Sea is the aptest description) on its own imagination.

Now, I understand it was H-6K that penetrated the Taiwanese ADIZ, wasn't it? It might be derived from an 'ancient Tu-16 platform', but H-6K is quite new and is nuclear attack capable, isn't it?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by SSridhar »

DavidD wrote: It's interesting to me that at the start of this Cold War 2.0, major American moves have been directed outwards, while major Chinese moves have been directed inwards. Very different strategies.
Yeah, quite interesting, no doubt.

But, that is the compulsion of the times, isn't it?

China has very few friends. It has huge internal problems which are about to hit the fan. Xi has to consolidate his position and ensure that he gets re-elected next year so that his 'China Dream' can develop China into a true Middle Kingdom ruling the world by 2035. That's the 2500 year old goal which Xi thinks is well within his grasp now. So, he has a lot at stake personally. His Ladakh gambit backfired. Covid and the Wolf Warrior diplomacy, Xi's own aggression of 'smashing heads', the insensitive comparison of pyres and rocket plumes, the resort to nuclear blackmailing, the Chinese Maritime Law by which other littorals are expected to live by, the Hongkong Security Law and the handling of the situation there have shown true colours of the Emperor and his Middle Kingdom's approach towards those who are unfortunate enough not to be born in China. 'Common Prosperity' program is nothing but a domestic political strategy to consolidate power by Xi. So also are the 'Dual Circulation' policy and the Cultural Revolution 2.0 programme. Unfortunately, 2022 may not be a well-paved easy path for Xi.
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Post by DavidD »

SSridhar wrote:
DavidD wrote: It's interesting to me that at the start of this Cold War 2.0, major American moves have been directed outwards, while major Chinese moves have been directed inwards. Very different strategies.
Yeah, quite interesting, no doubt.

But, that is the compulsion of the times, isn't it?

China has very few friends. It has huge internal problems which are about to hit the fan. Xi has to consolidate his position and ensure that he gets re-elected next year so that his 'China Dream' can develop China into a true Middle Kingdom ruling the world by 2035. That's the 2500 year old goal which Xi thinks is well within his grasp now. So, he has a lot at stake personally. His Ladakh gambit backfired. Covid and the Wolf Warrior diplomacy, Xi's own aggression of 'smashing heads', the insensitive comparison of pyres and rocket plumes, the resort to nuclear blackmailing, the Chinese Maritime Law by which other littorals are expected to live by, the Hongkong Security Law and the handling of the situation there have shown true colours of the Emperor and his Middle Kingdom's approach towards those who are unfortunate enough not to be born in China. 'Common Prosperity' program is nothing but a domestic political strategy to consolidate power by Xi. So also are the 'Dual Circulation' policy and the Cultural Revolution 2.0 programme. Unfortunately, 2022 may not be a well-paved easy path for Xi.
Interesting that you think his moves are for building up political capital, I think he's expending it. Those are some big money associated with well-connected folks he's tackling, I can't imagine someone like say Hu Jintao having the political capital to do something like popping the property bubble.

I mean, do you think his domestic policies are wrong? A vendor on Alibaba-owned Taobao is only allowed to use Alipay, is not allowed to sell on Tencent-owned Wechat, and Tencent in turn does not allow links to Taobao items to be shared on Wechat. Is that not anticompetitive behavior that needs to be stopped? Ant financial doles out hundreds of billions of dollars of high-risk, high rate payday-style loans while taking on zero risk itself and refuses to be regulated like a financial institution. Does that not add systemic risk to the financial system? I don't think I even need to explain the unsustainable debt-fueled growth in the property sector. Many on here have pointed out this bubble that needs to be popped some day and the pain that'll come with it when it happens. Would it not be even more painful if it's popped later?

You're absolutely right that 2022 will be a rough road for Xi, these moves will cause some short term pain at the very least. He must feel quite secure about his position in order to make these moves right now.

You're also right that he's probably compelled by the times. Some within China held the delusion that Cold War 2.0 will end with Trump, none holds that delusion now. I think Xi is trying to get his own house in order before focusing on an external foe. I also think that he feels quite secure, so much so that he is in position to decide the next batch of political leaders in China in 2022. He's now using these reforms as a test of who's worthy of being elevated to the highest echelon of the political ladder. Only those who loyally and capably execute his directives will be in the next Politburo.
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