Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[UlanBatori]

Why China is loved by all its nationals

[shiv]

Stupid Indians being reactive as usual. This time reacting to something that has not occured at all.
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/india- ... ssion=true

Should we not be pro active and do things in anticipation, before something occurs?

[SSridhar]

'Alphabet soup' of Navy missions dots Indian Ocean - Sujan Datta, New Indian Express

Ten months since it re-oriented the mission pattern of its fleet, the navy has told the government it has the Indian Ocean covered with an alphabet soup of acronyms. GULFDEP to MALDEP is the new naval lingo to describe the Indian Navy’s area of responsibility.

The re-orientation to “Mission based deployments” (MDP) has meant that nearly 15 warships of the Indian Navy are patrolling seven areas of the waters around India, beyond the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone, keeping an eye on all entry and exit routes to and from the Indian Ocean.

The ships are tasked round the clock, round the year. Each warship is turned around after three months. The last of the deployments for the year since the new pattern was begun in end-May 2017 and announced in October 2017 has just started. Warships generally avoid sailing through the international maritime highways, unless specifically tasked, and usually go from point A to point B in zig-zag pattern to cover more area.



Many of the Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs) that international mercantile marine traverses also sit astride part of China’s vaunted “Maritime Silk Road” from the South China Sea to Africa. Nearly 80 per cent of China’s energy supplies go through these routes.

The seven deployments are:
MALDEP: An IN ship is permanently sailing near the mouths of the Straits of Malacca;
NORDEP: Patrolling of the North Bay of Bengal, in waters north of the Andamans and the coasts of

Bangladesh and Myanmar;
ANDEP: Patrolling between the North Andamans and South Nicobar;
GULFDEP: Patrolling of the North Arabian Sea and the approaches to the Strait of Hormuz and the

Persian Gulf;
POGDEP: Anti-piracy patrolling of the Gulf of Aden, the oldest of the missions;
CENDEP: Patrolling in waters south of India, off the Maldives and Sri Lanka;
IODEP: Patrolling in the South Indian Ocean, off Mauritius, the Seychelles and Madagascar.

In addition to these deployments, Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance (LRMR) aircraft – the Boeing-made Poseidon 8i planes – are tasked with flying sorties, sometimes up to the South China Sea, almost every day, from INS Rajali in Arakonnam, Tamil Nadu.
Over the months since the MDP, the acronyms that began as colloquialisms have become part of navy jargon.

“We have the Indian Ocean covered,” a top officer overseeing the deployments told The Sunday Standard. “From GULFDEP to MALDEP, we can see every Chinese vessel, most certainly.”
He was referring to surface ships of the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN). Chinese submarines were spotted, when they were, more infrequently.

In December, the navy chief, Admiral Sunil Lanba, had said that at least eight ships of the PLAN were in the Indian Ocean Region “at any given time”. These included three for their anti-piracy patrol that China too began in 2008. Twice a year, PLAN submarines criss-crossed waters close to India in an anti-piracy deployment that befuddles most navies. It is not understood why submarines should be used as platforms to counter piracy off the Horn of Africa.

The pattern of Chinese deployment in the IOR was markedly different in August last year when the number of PLAN vessels suddenly rose to 14.

The Indian Navy also picked up a Chinese flotilla that sailed through the South China Sea, entered the Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait, took a U-turn, and returned through the Strait of Lombok in February this year. The manoeuvre coincided with the turbulence in the Maldives. But the flotilla was far from the archipelago.

The intelligence collected by the seven navy deployments is fed into, apart from the Directorate of Naval Operations (DNO), the Information Management and Analysis Centre (IMAC) near the national capital. The navy has its own satellite, Rukmini.

[ArjunPandit]

posting.php?mode=reply&f=1&t=7372#preview

Well first, because China will have Pakistan's help and equipment at its disposal and second, china currently has us outmanned, outgunned and outshipped. It's easier for them to spare resources to open another front than for us.

outmanned, outgunned and outshipped,

thankfully they havent shipped us out of either india or AN islands. Everything china is going to do is so perfect and strong. China has also did the same and to a much bigger extent with vietnam, Taiwan and Japan. Last i checked they're doing fine, despite of being much closer.
Jokes aside, this question was asked earlier on one of the forums, is there any precedent of two different countries conducted a successful operation over such a large distance through contested land and space (if balloon goes up on both sides then entire pakistan will be hammered by IA & IAF)
Not to forget these countries have different cultures and languages (unless of course chinese becomes the only language of pakistan in next 5 years). The answer to this question should provide "calibrated" response to your question.
Also request you to please analyze, where are the guns, ships and men that/who have outgunned India. Just in case someone plans to bring them closer to home (ours of course) then how do they plan to feed, supply and then fight.

[Trikaal]

Men:
China- 2.3 mil active troops
India- 1.4 mil active troops

Navy:
China-
1 aircraft carrier
4 amphibious transport docks
32 landing ship tanks
31 landing ship medium
29 destroyers
50 frigates
37 corvettes
109 missile boats
94 submarine chasers
17 gunboats
29 mine countermeasure vessels
68 submarines
12 replenishment ships

India-
1 aircraft carrier
1 amphibious transport dock
8 landing ship tanks
11 destroyers
13 frigates
22 corvettes
1 mine countermeasure vessel
2 nuclear submarines
14 diesel submarines
29 patrol vessels
4 replenishment oilers

Guns(or land equipment):
china. India
Tanks: 9 150 4 426
Armoured fighting vehicles: 4 788 5 681
Total artillery: 9 726 5 067
Self-propelled artillery: 1 710 290
Rocket artillery: 1 770 292

Regarding supply lines, that is what the bases springing all over the indian ocean are for.

Look, the point of my post isn't to spread fear. It is to make an argument for proactive responses towards changing geopolitical situations in IOR. In the event of war, will china prevail over india? Hell no, but if we stay quiet and do nothing right now, our loses could be more than necessary. I have full confidence in our forces, I just don't want to be entirely dependent on them. I want our diplomacy to be working in the right direction too which currently it doesn't seem to be.

[shiv]

Regarding supply lines, that is what the bases springing all over the indian ocean are for.

Look, the point of my post isn't to spread fear.

You are not spreading fear. You are just displaying it. It is not spreading to me.

What Indian ocean bases? I presume you have see this video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRBhZ2ATWqI

[pankajs]

Don't know if this has been posted before.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/i ... 073391.ece
Singapore for more cooperation with India in Strait of Malacca, Andaman Sea [November 29, 2017]

His comments are significant as the Strait of Malacca is a critical choke point of global commerce and is seen by China as a vulnerability of its energy supplies.

Singapore is keen on expanding cooperation with India in the Strait of Malacca and the Andaman Sea, its Defence Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen said on Wednesday.

“We all recognise that the Strait of Malacca and the Indian Ocean are key sea lanes of communication... I think I speak on behalf of both countries, we want to see more participation and activity in both the Strait of Malacca and the Andaman Sea,” he said at the joint press conference with his Indian counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman after the second defence ministerial dialogue.

His comments are significant as the Strait of Malacca is a critical choke point of global commerce and is seen by China as a vulnerability of its energy supplies.

Early this year, the Indian Navy permanently deployed a frontline warship at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca to keep an eye on increasing Chinese movements in the Indian Ocean.

Dr. Ng said it made sense for countries to cooperate not only to establish maritime security but to maintain freedom of navigation because “we know it is lifeline for economies”.

He also welcomed the Indian Navy to use their naval facilities for operational turnaround.

“I not only support but I would encourage the Indian Navy to visit the Changi naval base more often. The bilateral naval agreement has a provision for mutual logistical support,” he stated.

This would allow greater Indian presence near the contested waters of the South China Sea. The ministerial dialogue saw the conclusion of India-Singapore bilateral agreement for navy cooperation that will allow cooperation in maritime security, joint exercises, temporary deployments from each other’s naval facilities and mutual logistics support.

The two Ministers also agreed to institutionalise naval engagements in the shared maritime space, including establishing maritime exercises with like-minded countries and ASEAN partners, a joint statement said.

“We will exercise and patrol in your waters as you do in ours. We try to economise and support each other,” Dr. Ng added.

Singapore sits right at the top of the narrowest transit point in the Malacca Strait and submarines cross this point on the surface to avoid risk of any collision.

Singapore would know about every Ship/Sub that goes into the Malacca strait at its end. If we have intelligence or domain awareness sharing with them we would know about every Ship/Sub approaching Andaman sea about 500 miles in advance and could arrange a reception party if we were so inclined.

[SSridhar]

India, Japan and US hold trilateral meeting - The Hindu

India, Japan and the United States participated in the ninth trilateral meeting in New Delhi on Wednesday. The meeting focused on connectivity, counter-terrorism and other regional and global issues, a joint press release issued after the talks informed.

“The officials reviewed the outcomes of the Trilateral Infrastructure Working Group that met in Washington in February and agreed to continue to collaborate to promote increased connectivity in the Indo-Pacific,” the press release stated.

It said the talks drew from the guidelines laid out by the Foreign Ministers of three nations who met in New York on 18 September 2017, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly session.

“The officials explored practical steps to enhance cooperation in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development, counter-proliferation, counter-terrorism, maritime security, maritime domain awareness and HA-DR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief),” the press release said.

The meeting is crucial as it comes in the backdrop of the ongoing trade war between China and the Trump administration that erupted after both sides imposed tariffs on each other’s goods.

Echoing India’s concern about maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the western Pacific Ocean, the trilateral emphasised on importance of keeping sea lanes open.

“All sides agreed to remain engaged and strengthen cooperation in support for a free, open, prosperous, peaceful and inclusive Indo-Pacific region through partnership with countries in the region,” the press release declared.

[SSridhar]

Don't know if this has been posted before.

Yes, it has been. Link

[nam]

Men:
China- 2.3 mil active troops
India- 1.4 mil active troops

China does not have 2.3 million active troops. They have 850k. It is from the Chinese government themselves.

If China wants to invade India with it 2.3 million troops, India has enough people to raise a 5 million army.

If they raise 10 million, we can raise 20 million. China is not the only country with a billion people.

[nam]

By the way, US is targeting Chini imports in to it's country.

Are we marketing ourself to American risk managers as an alternate to China?

[pankajs]

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7610&start=1040#p2260210

2. Long back [between 2012-2015. I cannot recall the exact date from memory] an economist had predicted that Xi [IIRC, he actually had said who ever comes next because it was before Xi's selection] will be left with no option but to consolidate power given the challenges he will face to change the fortunes of a sagging Chinese economy. Otherwise there was no way the massive changes that need to be rammed through to *Save* the Chinese economy can ever be implemented. His reasoning was that the SOEs, where the maximum effort was required, will also be the source of major opposition. These SOEs are controlled by the various political power centers that have their own interests to protect. So centralization of power was a prerequisite for any economic reform and without economic reform the BEST Case scenario was a Japan style stagnation[/b]. His predictions have come true on the power grab.

The underlined part should be read by replacing SOEs with "SOEs and local governments"

Looks like this economist person was not only right about Phase-1 i.e. consolidation of power but also about the Phase-2. Lets see if Xi can take it to its logical conclusion.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... ments-debt
China’s state-owned banks told to stop lending to local governments as debt crackdown intensifies

The central Chinese government has sent a blunt message intended to dissolve the marriage between banks and local governments, the nexus in China’s debt-fuelled growth model.

In a directive full of “must nots”and “shalls” posted on its website last week, China’s Ministry of Finance, under the newly appointed minister Liu Kun, told state-owned financial institutions not to provide any funding to local governments, with the exception of buying government bonds.

At the first meeting of the Central Economic and Financial Commission, the supreme economic decision making body headed by Xi Jinping on Monday, the Chinese president said local governments and state-owned enterprises must cut debt further.

China’s state-owned banks were told to check the registered capital of projects sponsored by local authorities, to appraise borrowers’ real repayment capabilities and not to accept local government’s guarantees for repayment or return, according to the ministry’s directive.

This also means that Xina has entered a dangerous period of about a decade where its economy will be poised on a kinfe's edge while it is being massively reformed. Any major external shock is likely to throw it off balance and into chaos and Xi will likely externalize the ire of the citizens to maintain his hold.

BTW, This also means that Xina is going to slow down even further. This economist had put his expectation of 3% *average* annual growth at best for this decade of re-balancing.

[rsingh]

Men:
China- 2.3 mil active troops
India- 1.4 mil active troops

Navy:
China-
1 aircraft carrier
4 amphibious transport docks
32 landing ship tanks
31 landing ship medium
29 destroyers
50 frigates
37 corvettes
109 missile boats
94 submarine chasers
17 gunboats
29 mine countermeasure vessels
68 submarines
12 replenishment ships

India-
1 aircraft carrier
1 amphibious transport dock
8 landing ship tanks
11 destroyers
13 frigates
22 corvettes
1 mine countermeasure vessel
2 nuclear submarines
14 diesel submarines
29 patrol vessels
4 replenishment oilers

Guns(or land equipment):
china. India
Tanks: 9 150 4 426
Armoured fighting vehicles: 4 788 5 681
Total artillery: 9 726 5 067
Self-propelled artillery: 1 710 290
Rocket artillery: 1 770 292

Regarding supply lines, that is what the bases springing all over the indian ocean are for.

Look, the point of my post isn't to spread fear. It is to make an argument for proactive responses towards changing geopolitical situations in IOR. In the event of war, will china prevail over india? Hell no, but if we stay quiet and do nothing right now, our loses could be more than necessary. I have full confidence in our forces, I just don't want to be entirely dependent on them. I want our diplomacy to be working in the right direction too which currently it doesn't seem to be.

I wonder if China is going to deploy all its assets against India. It has big border and angry neighbours. So this sat is not helpful. I think in case of war China is going use low yield tactical nuke is less populated area (Leh etc). They know that peaceful, expandable , Gandhiwadi and Dharmic Indian leadership will hesitate to respond in kind. It will show China's resolve to the world for once and all. The ultimate coming of China.

[pankajs]

Oh .. that reminds me.

One American military personnel has recently stated that a hyper-sonic missile with conventional warhead can bring a much destruction as a Nuke. I am sure he did not mean MT nuke but Tactical Nuke.

Let me search for that article.

Added Later: http://thehill.com/opinion/national-sec ... to-america
Hypersonics in enemy hands are immeasurable threat to America

In recent testimony to Congress, Stratcom commander Gen. John Hyten described a hypersonic weapon as “like a ballistic missile, but then it depresses the trajectory and then flies more like a cruise missile or an airplane. So it goes up into the low reaches of space, and then turns immediately back down and then levels out and flies at a very high level of speed.”

Describes Shaurya missile.

If the concern is that America’s near-peers have developed a hypersonic capability to deliver nuclear weapons, then this isn’t all that new of a problem. ICBMs and their sea-launched alternatives, SLBMs, already travel at hypersonic speeds. (A “hypersonic” vehicle would be tough to catch at Mach 5, but an ICBM warhead comes in at Mach 23.) In terms of the strategic balance of power, this doesn’t mean very much: A nuclear bomb landing on a U.S. target is still a nuclear bomb landing on a U.S. target.

<snip>

As a nuclear delivery system, hypersonic weapons would not change much in the strategic equation, especially among strategists (like me) who do not think national missile defenses will ever be capable of stopping any sizable attack against the United States. It is true that the United States has no ability to defend against hypersonic weapons. But, then, it has no ability to defeat any other kind of intercontinental missile attack, either.

<snip>

If these hypersonic weapons, however, are armed with conventional munitions, things get very complicated indeed. The ability to destroy large military assets — without detection and at high speed — could induce immense confusion and critical lags in the ability to respond. These effects could be so destructive that they would mimic the effects of nuclear use, without the actual risk of employing nuclear weapons.

[nam]

He is giving a hint that since we cannot defend against hypersonics, it's use would be consider equivalent to a nuke... resulting in a nuclear response.

Trying to create a deterrent on using against US targets.

[ArjunPandit]

^^@trikaal thanks for sharing wiki stats with me, Not that i remember them by heart, but I have seen such numbers being thrown on the forum here in past and have myself fallen to the fallacy of these numbers. As a next step, think of yourself as in shoes of eleven jinpeg, and see how you can throw all of them at India. Considering you are aware of mutlivariate and possibly stochastic aspect of warfare, may I request you to think about your variables at play, underlying assumptions. For comparison perspective you can READ this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7624&start=40
Also, I have been reading your posts very carefully, and making you do the lifting rather than appearing to take poke holes in your "concerns" about Indian security environment.

[kit]

Men:


Regarding supply lines, that is what the bases springing all over the indian ocean are for.

Look, the point of my post isn't to spread fear. It is to make an argument for proactive responses towards changing geopolitical situations in IOR. In the event of war, will china prevail over india? Hell no, but if we stay quiet and do nothing right now, our loses could be more than necessary. I have full confidence in our forces, I just don't want to be entirely dependent on them. I want our diplomacy to be working in the right direction too which currently it doesn't seem to be.

I find this post very funny, do you think China can deploy "all those numerical "strengths against India at any point? NO .. that will leave them at the mercy of so many countries looking to settle scores .. an island comes to mind, but anyway let's say for argument sake India is so hampered as well ..BUT India is much nearer to the Indian ocean than China and can focus much. greater military power than China at *ANY TIME* even now ..and that strength is going to be correspondingly greater in the coming years., China cant just win this game. Maybe mind games but not an actual war.Not going to happen.

[kit]

Oh .. that reminds me.

One American military personnel has recently stated that a hyper-sonic missile with conventional warhead can bring a much destruction as a Nuke. I am sure he did not mean MT nuke but Tactical Nuke.

If these hypersonic weapons, however, are armed with conventional munitions, things get very complicated indeed. The ability to destroy large military assets — without detection and at high speed — could induce immense confusion and critical lags in the ability to respond. These effects could be so destructive that they would mimic the effects of nuclear use, without the actual risk of employing nuclear weapons.

[/quote]

Boss you hit me with a hypersonic missile ., i' ll hit back with a nuke ..America s fear is hypersonic weapons in nonnuclear countries., its suddenly as if all countries acquired nukes ., hence the need for a new cartel for "non proliferation" so that America can go on doing what it does best

[kit]

Did someone say supply lines? The Indian Navy is just spoiled for choices ., right from Singapore to the Gulf, all the American bases and French bases can now support Indian deployments and supplies. China has more reason to fear a rising tiger than the other way around, just look at the number of countries ranged against them ., and India? ..just one ..China ( Pakistan is just an appendage)

[kit]

On the same thought India s overtures to China are from a position of strength not kowtowing or showing weakness, it expects equal consideration in security matters from China, anyway let's see.Public alarmism and false news are just that ., a form of psychological war, will be equally dealt with under the new journalist accreditation act

[ArjunPandit]

@is there any reason you are not explicitly calling out LEMOA that enables us to use the US facilities

[fanne]

I wonder where will china place 9000 of it tanks against India? Maybe some thousand in Dokalam? The only place where a tank war is feesible in near daulat beg oldie, a narrow front. We both have some 200 tanks there (that is how much that place can hold.

[Aditya_V]

I think you mean Chushul sector and not DBO sector

[panduranghari]

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/ ... ments-debt
China’s state-owned banks told to stop lending to local governments as debt crackdown intensifies

The central Chinese government has sent a blunt message intended to dissolve the marriage between banks and local governments, the nexus in China’s debt-fuelled growth model.

Not going to happen in our lifetimes. The autonomous bank of HIBOR is telling a different story unlike what the Peebuuls bank of Xina wants us to hear.

[SSridhar]

Xi Jinping rides the Chinese dragon - G.Parthasarathy, Business Line

China’s Xi Jinping has now assumed powers that only two Chinese leaders, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiao Ping, had wielded, since the establishment of the “People’s Republic” in 1949, by Mao. Xi is today the uncrowned Emperor of China.

Born in 1953, Xi Jinping is today the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, the President of the People’s Republic and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. He has consolidated his powers by having the Constitution amended, to enable him to continue in office indefinitely, as the country’s Supreme Leader. Recognising the dangers of concentration of powers in one person indefinitely, Deng Xiao Ping who had suffered from Mao’s excesses amended the Constitution, to limit any leader, to two terms in office. Like Mao and Deng before him, Xi has enshrined “Xi Jinping Thought” in the Constitution. One can expect a long tenure in power for Xi, like Mao and Deng, unless he is faced with unexpected and unforeseen challenges.

Mao was erratic in the conduct of his foreign policy, which was partly driven by ideological and personal considerations. His relations with Soviet leaders Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev were uneasy, even hostile, and marked by personal differences, disputed borders and even ideological considerations.

Relations with Moscow changed slowly, only after Mao’s exit. Deng was a supreme realist, who clearly recognised China’s prevailing political, economic and military weaknesses. Rejecting diplomatic overreach, Deng profoundly proclaimed: “Hide your strength and bide your time”. While his invasion of Vietnam in 1979, to teach it a “lesson”, was a disaster, Deng derived huge benefits by pragmatically shunning Communist ideology, encouraging private enterprise, and making peace with and deriving immense benefits from American-led western investments and technology. Gorbachev’s weakened Soviet Union sought rapprochement with China and settled bilateral differences on the border, largely on Chinese terms. Putin’s Russia, afflicted by falling birth rates, alcoholism and drug addiction, with its economy largely dependent on mineral and oil resources, is now a junior partner of China, in countering and challenging American led western supremacy.

China’s economic might

When Deng Xiao Ping commenced his State driven economic reforms in 1979, China’s GDP was less than 20 per cent of Japan and half that of the UK. Over the past three decades, thanks to many years of near double-digit economic growth, China today has a per capita income of around $7,000. Its economy is larger than that of Japan and could overtake the US by the 2030s. China has the largest exports in the world. It is relentlessly using its economic clout and particularly its construction capabilities, to build infrastructure, industrial and urban hubs across the world.

Xi, who spent some of his childhood years with his father jailed by Mao and later rehabilitated by Deng, clearly aims to build on Deng’s policies, to make China the largest economy in the world, with military capabilities that enable it to dominate the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Xi has dealt with the opposition ruthlessly, acting against influential party leaders, who could pose a challenge to him, by enforcing several measures to ensure party discipline. He has also taken measures in anti-corruption programmes that ousted leaders, who could have challenged his supremacy. He has sought to pre-empt all manifestations of organised dissent, by stringent Internet censorship and promoted trusted cronies to key positions of influence, in disciplining party colleagues, especially on charges of corruption.

He has appointed his close crony and anti-corruption hatchet man, 70-year-old Wang Qishan, as Vice-President. Wang can now with Xi’s approval continue indefinitely in office. Personal freedoms, together with Internet monitoring and access in China, are now set to be more tightly monitored restricted and controlled. China has now made it clear that it will not hesitate to use coercion and force, in pursuit of its territorial and geopolitical ambitions. It has not even respected rulings of the international Tribunal on the Law of the Seas on its maritime boundaries with the Philippines South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei Malaysia and Indonesia.

Using its economic aid as leverage, China has divided ASEAN States, thus pre-empting possibility of a collective ASEAN response to its maritime territorial expansionism. Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia are the only countries to challenge the untenable Chinese maritime boundary claims.

Apart from its quest for port facilities across the Indian Ocean Region in Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), Chittagong, Hambantota, Gwadar, Maldives and Djibouti, China is now increasingly proactive in meddling in democratic and electoral processes in South Asia. This has been evident in its reaching out to and backing anti-Indian leaders of its choice in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh (which is scheduled for elections later this year), and Maldives. China does not need to act similarly in Pakistan, as it has the Pakistan army, which has marginalized the country’s political leaders, strongly on its side. Apart from strengthening Pakistan’s Army, Air Force and its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, China is now set to enhance Pakistan’s maritime capabilities with the supply of submarines and frigates, apart from providing Pakistan with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) Technology, which involves delivery systems, able to launch multiple nuclear warhead-tipped missiles simultaneously, at numerous targets.

India’s stand

There should be no doubt that China will miss no opportunity to maintain pressure on India along our borders, as it did during the Doklam standoff. China will, however, not resort to military adventurism if there is any possibility of it facing the same failure, as its disastrous 1979 Vietnam misadventure.

While strengthening its defence capabilities as a deterrent to Chinese adventurism and aggression, India would be well advised to adopt a policy that eschews rhetoric, in dealing with China. Confidence Building Measures to maintain peace and tranquility along the border need to be strengthened. We should also proactively assert our readiness to resolve the border issue in accordance with the terns of the 2005 “Guiding Principles,” agreed to during the visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India. Chinese power in the Indian Ocean Region has to be neutralised by active strategic and economic cooperation with powers like the US, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and EU members such as France and Germany.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

[ShauryaT]

Love it that US-China are fighting. The political message to US business is do not invest in China any more. India should take FULL advantage.

[TKiran]

^^^ShauryaT sir, it's all 'dikhava' that US is fighting China. US has already done so much of damage to itself not understanding China, nothing can be done about it, only option for US now is to confine China to Indian ocean, so that it can have pacific ocean and Atlantic. G2 is the only way to retain its reduced primacy. This has dawned on Obama. It's likely to continue...

US lost its technological edge to China that was the fault.

[Singha]

Cheen is slowly painting itself into a corner .
Both dt and xi ji have big egos and fancy themselves as chengis with vast tumans at their command but there are checks and balances in democracy not so in the xiocracy this is what they rely on to make bigger riskier threats against the khan

Its a high stakes game of poker . Whoever loses will lose face badly

Chinas hope is a draw after light skirmishes to raise its stature as a g2 and a peer power so a draw can be spun as a big victory too

Paid or ideologically leftist moles in usa are hard at work to undermine dt no matter if its break usa forces buf mode

[Singha]

^^^ShauryaT sir, it's all 'dikhava' that US is fighting China. US has already done so much of damage to itself not understanding China, nothing can be done about it, only option for US now is to confine China to Indian ocean, so that it can have pacific ocean and Atlantic. G2 is the only way to retain its reduced primacy. This has dawned on Obama. It's likely to continue...

US lost its technological edge to China that was the fault.

how will this miraculous feat occur of cheen all over ior but conceded the pacific to usa? Pacific is their home ground , lose that and its game over for both china and usa whoever loses

[arun]

X Posted on theTerroristan and OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications Threads

MEA on China's OBOR: Can't accept a project that violates India's sovereignty

…………………….{Rest Snipped}……………………

X Posted from the CPEC thread to the Terroristan, OBOR and Chinese Threat Threads

Our Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) statement regards OBOR / BRI / CPEC in its entirety.

Official Spokesperson's response to a query on media reports regarding possible cooperation with China on OBOR/BRI
April 05, 2018

In response to a query on media reports regarding possible cooperation with China on OBOR/BRI, the Official Spokesperson said:

"We have seen some media reports alluding to our possible cooperation with China in ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR)/‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI).

Our position on OBOR/BRI is clear and there is no change. The so-called ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’ violates India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

We are of firm belief that connectivity initiatives must be based on universally recognized international norms, good governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and equality, and must be pursued in a manner that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity."

New Delhi
April 05, 2018

From the MEA Website:

Official Spokesperson's response to a query on media reports regarding possible cooperation with China on OBOR/BRI

Meanwhile India continues to pursue other regional connectivity initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) .

Excerpt from the statement made a day earlier ie: April 04 of our External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on the the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), following a meeting with Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister consequent to our EAM’s visit to Baku to attend 18th Mid-Term Ministerial Meeting of the Non-Alignment Movement:

Foreign Minister Mr. Mammadyarov and I agreed that the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), of which both India and Azerbaijan are members,is an important initiative that can reduce time and cost by about 30-40 per cent. To popularise INSTC, a motor rally is being organised that would shortly pass through Azerbaijan.

Also from the MEA Website:

Press Statement by External Affairs Minister after meeting with Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, Baku (April 04, 2018)

[pankajs]

Exactly my though process when I first heard the news of Nepal dam project going to China.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... i-5125566/
If China builds your dams, India won’t buy energy: PM Narendra Modi to tell KP Oli

This is in line with my earlier post of market access. In all market access situation between India and its neighbors, India holds the keys and the gates can be slammed shut at our will.

Extend this logic to Hambantota + 15,000 acres for "economic activity" if it is for economic activity or the use of Maldives FTA to penetrate Indian market or Tibet-Nepal railways.

I had suggested that while India should liberalize its trade with our neighbour we also embed "kill switch" in all such access agreement. Perhaps these 2 will not be out of place.
1. Only companies that are either controlled by locally or by Indian entities should be allowed preferential access.
2. Only companies that have 50%+ local content are allowed preferential market access. No trading Toll collection bizness.

[panduranghari]

^^^ShauryaT sir, it's all 'dikhava' that US is fighting China. US has already done so much of damage to itself not understanding China, nothing can be done about it, only option for US now is to confine China to Indian ocean, so that it can have pacific ocean and Atlantic. G2 is the only way to retain its reduced primacy. This has dawned on Obama. It's likely to continue...

US lost its technological edge to China that was the fault.

No its not 'Dikhawa'

See trumps video from 1988 in Oprah. He is very consistent unlike what media likes to portray as he is an idiot. He is doing the exact things his voter base wants. The outcome will be bad for the voterbase but Trump wants to be re-elected in 3 years time.

https://dailyreckoning.com/trade-matter-survival-china/

TWE was the authority FDR used to close the banks and seize the gold. It’s not clear whom FDR considered the “enemy” when he used TWE; probably private gold hoarders. But, in 1977, the Congress enacted an even more extreme version of TWE called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, or IEEPA.

This is the equivalent of a nuclear weapon when it comes to financial warfare.

IEEPA allows the president to seize or freeze any asset or block any transaction if the president deems it to be necessary in the case of a national emergency.

The problem is that “national emergency” can be defined broadly to include trade imbalances, lost jobs or any other economic adversity. President Trump may now use IEEPA to block a variety of Chinese deals in the U.S. in retaliation for Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property.

With the U.S. using its nuclear option in financial warfare, investors should hope that the Chinese don’t respond in kind.

President Trump may not appreciate the extent to which China will go to protect its interests. Trade negotiations are not the art of the deal, as far as China is concerned. Their goal is national survival.

China’s economy is not just about providing jobs, goods and services that people want and need.

It is about regime survival for a Chinese Communist Party that faces an existential crisis if it fails to deliver. The overriding imperative of the Chinese leadership is to avoid societal unrest.

But China is less stable and less powerful than it appears on the surface. Its apparent stability is more of a mask concealing internal divisions.

And it is afraid that its hold on power is weaker than many in the West suspect.

Remember Tiananmen Square?

Rather than showing the power and unity of the Chinese government, Beijing took a different lesson from Tiananmen Square.

As my colleague Kevin Massengill has pointed out, it revealed China’s political fragility.

We all know about the massacre. But what is not widely known is that several army officers refused orders to crush protests throughout China.

Seven retired generals, including a former defense minister, signed a letter opposing the use of force against the people of Beijing:

“Due to the exigent circumstances, we as old soldiers, make the following request: Since the People’s Army belongs to the people, it cannot stand against the people, much less kill the people, and must not be permitted to fire on the people and cause bloodshed; to prevent the situation from escalating, the Army must not enter the city.”

“I’d rather be beheaded than be a criminal in the eyes of history,” said one general commanding forces in the Beijing military district.

They were not the only one who felt that way. As Kevin has noted, armored divisions of 10,000 soldiers allowed themselves to be stopped for days by crowds of students and ordinary citizens who brought them food and water while explaining why their cause was just.

An estimated 3,500 PLA officers disobeyed orders to crush protests. Many Chinese army officers were reportedly executed. Others were demoted, or faced court martial and imprisonment.

The Tiananmen Square Massacre, Kevin says, is an example of why and proves that the position of the Chinese Communist Party is more precarious than is widely understood, even now, almost 30 years later.

Here’s something else not widely known about the protests…

The Tiananmen Square protests and massacre of 1989 did not start out as a liberty movement, although that’s how they are remembered in the West. It started out as an anti-inflation protest, and that’s how the Communists remember it.

And given China’s current economic problem, Beijing’s challenge is becoming more difficult every day. Consider what’s happening in China right now…

Growth in GDP is conventionally defined as the sum of consumer spending, investment, government spending (excluding transfer payments) and net exports.

Most large economies other than oil-producing nations get most of their growth from consumption, followed by investment, with relatively small contributions from government spending and net exports.

A typical composition would show a 65% contribution from consumption plus a 15% contribution from investment. China is nearly the opposite, with about 35% from consumption and 45% from investment.

That might be fine in a fast-growing emerging-market economy like China if the investment component were carefully designed to produce growth in the future as well as short-term jobs and inputs.

But that’s not the case.

Up to half of China’s investment is a complete waste. It does produce jobs and utilize inputs like cement, steel, copper and glass. But the finished product, whether a city, train station or sports arena, is often a white elephant that will remain unused.

What’s worse is that these white elephants are being financed with debt that can never be repaid. And no allowance has been made for the maintenance that will be needed to keep these white elephants in usable form if demand does rise in the future, which is doubtful.

Chinese growth has been reported in recent years as 6.5–10% but is actually closer to 5% or lower once an adjustment is made for the waste. The Chinese landscape is littered with “ghost cities” that have resulted from China’s wasted investment and flawed development model.

This wasted infrastructure spending is the beginning of the debt disaster that is coming soon. China is on the horns of a dilemma with no good way out.

On the one hand, China has driven growth for the past eight years with excessive credit, wasted infrastructure investment and Ponzi schemes. The Chinese leadership knows this, but they had to keep the growth machine in high gear to create jobs for millions of migrants coming from the countryside to the city and to maintain jobs for the millions more already in the cities.

The Communist Chinese leadership knew that a day of reckoning would come. The two ways to get rid of debt are deflation (which results in write-offs, bankruptcies and unemployment) or inflation (which results in theft of purchasing power, similar to a tax increase).

Both alternatives are unacceptable to the Communists because they lack the political legitimacy to endure either unemployment or inflation. Either policy would cause social unrest and unleash revolutionary potential.

[abhik]

^^^ShauryaT sir, it's all 'dikhava' that US is fighting China. US has already done so much of damage to itself not understanding China, nothing can be done about it, only option for US now is to confine China to Indian ocean, so that it can have pacific ocean and Atlantic. G2 is the only way to retain its reduced primacy. This has dawned on Obama. It's likely to continue...

US lost its technological edge to China that was the fault.

how will this miraculous feat occur of cheen all over ior but conceded the pacific to usa? Pacific is their home ground , lose that and its game over for both china and usa whoever loses

AFAIK the plan was to split the Pacific, western Pacific for China and eastern for US.

[nam]

What's in Eastern Pacific the US? Just water.

[Prem]

CHINA MILITARY TELLS RUSSIA 'WE'VE COME TO SUPPORT YOU' AGAINST U.S.
http://www.newsweek.com/china-military- ... ium=Social

China's military leadership has pledged its support to Russia as tensions between Moscow and the West further deteriorate into diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and dueling defense drills.In his first visit to Russia, newly appointed Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng attended the seventh Moscow International Security Conference accompanied by a delegation of other high-level military officials. Emphasizing that his trip was coordinated directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Wei said that he had two major messages for Russia at a time when both nations were attempting to modernize their armed forces and strengthen their hands in global affairs in spite of U.S. fears."I am visiting Russia as a new defense minister of China to show the world a high level of development of our bilateral relations and firm determination of our armed forces to strengthen strategic cooperation," Wei said at a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, according to the state-run Tass Russian News Agency."Second, to support the Russian side in organizing the Moscow International Security Conference the Chinese side has come to show Americans the close ties between the armed forces of China and Russia, especially in this situation. We’ve come to support you," he added. "The Chinese side is ready to express with the Russian side our common concerns and common position on important international problems at international venues as well."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart command what's often considered the world's second and third most powerful armed forces, respectively, behind the U.S. While the Pentagon has managed to retain a comfortable lead against its leading competitors, Moscow and Beijing have coordinated closely as they both aim to close this gap and check U.S. influence abroad.As Russia showed off its military prowess by declaring victory in the Syrian conflict and boosting its military power across Europe, China has invested in international infrastructure projects—especially across Asia and Africa—and expanded its presence in the Pacific. Both countries argue they are looking to work with and not against the U.S., but Washington has viewed their rise with suspicion and has taken countermeasures against perceived challenges to the international order it has traditionally dominated for decades.In addition to boosting its own military power in Europe and Asia, the U.S. has portrayed growing Russian and Chinese influence abroad as an assault on democracy. The West has singled out Russia especially, accusing it of interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential race and other foreign elections.Washington has also charged Moscow with being behind cyber attacks and physical attacks, including the poisoning of ex-Soviet intelligence officer Sergei Skripal who was arrested for being a double agent for London before being released in a 2010 spy swap and moving to the U.K.
In response to Wei's visit, his Russian counterpart also stressed better relations between the two countries, which once formed the world's largest and most powerful communist alliance before falling out in the 1960s. With both Putin and Xi having been re-elected last month, the two presidents have successfully consolidated power in their respective countries."Thanks to the efforts of the leaders of our countries, the ties between Russia and China are now reaching a new and unprecedented level, becoming an important factor in ensuring peace and international security," Shoigu said, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

[SSridhar]

CHINA MILITARY TELLS RUSSIA 'WE'VE COME TO SUPPORT YOU' AGAINST U.S.
http://www.newsweek.com/china-military- ... ium=Social

So, Russia would become the 24th province with 23rd being Pakistan. Or, 7th Autonomous region with 6th being Pakistan.

[kit]

lets see what China will do to Russia once the military power of the latter is significantly weaker

the entire Russian far east is at risk .. not much population and resource-rich ..will be a juicy bit for the Chinese ..heck they dont need to invade it ..they will just populate it !!

[kit]

CHINA MILITARY TELLS RUSSIA 'WE'VE COME TO SUPPORT YOU' AGAINST U.S.
http://www.newsweek.com/china-military- ... ium=Social

So, Russia would become the 24th province with 23rd being Pakistan. Or, 7th Autonomous region with 6th being Pakistan.

+1 .. just what i said !

[kit]

Maybe after all ..this was the G2 all about .. Americans egging the russians to the chinese lap

[g.sarkar]

CHINA MILITARY TELLS RUSSIA 'WE'VE COME TO SUPPORT YOU' AGAINST U.S.
http://www.newsweek.com/china-military- ... ium=Social

So, Russia would become the 24th province with 23rd being Pakistan. Or, 7th Autonomous region with 6th being Pakistan.

Russian Far East berongs to China. China has thousands of maps to prove that. Russia has no use for this land and China needs its Lebensraum.
Gautam