Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 27 Jul 2020 12:51

Russia Suspends Delivery Of S-400 Missile Systems To China Days After Accusing It Of Espionage

In a major setback for China, Russia has suspended the delivery of S-400 'Triumf' surface-to-air missile systems to the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), reports news agency ANI citing Chinese newspaper Sohu.

As per the report, China is said to have put forward the view that Russia was forced to make such a decision as it was worried that the delivery of S-400 missile systems at this time would have impacted the PLA's anti-pandemic efforts and caused troubled for China.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that the suspension comes merely days after Russia had accused China of espionage, despite the two nations sharing considerably good relations over the years.

This assertion had come up after Russian authorities had found the president of its St Petersburg Arctic Social Sciences Academy, Valery Mitko handing over classified material to the Chinese intelligence.

Considered to be the most advanced missile defence system in the world, the S-400 'Triumf' system is capable of destroying targets at a distance of up to 400 kilometres and a height of up to 30 kilometres.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 27 Jul 2020 13:24

Global prospects dim for China's tech champions as great powers clash

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN24S07U

chola · Post by **chola** » 27 Jul 2020 14:35

sajo wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:It is very likely that the Chinese are reaching out to sympathetic US multinational companies, who have interests in China, to approach Democratic Party operatives to reach the Biden campaign.
You, sir, have put it very succinctly. I think USA Inc., with its extreme reliance on Cheen will not have a ruling dispensation which is acrimonious to their a place which gives them super fat margins and an easy life. They will go all out to push either the Republican outlook to look the other way, or to ensure Maulana Biden would win. The American consumers have so far so no inclination to decouple by voting with their wallets.

USA Inc does not have an "extreme" reliance in Cheen. It is many multiples more invested in the EU, Canada and Mexico. It does have a large profit margin in Cheen which contributes to its lead globally. If it loses the cheeni market then the krauts, the japs and the gooks will inevitably be stronger by being in a market that US firms are left out of. That is why Trump needed to punish allies too in order to keep them inline. So far only the Anglo-Sphere along with India really listened.

These are the headlines this morning:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/asia-ma ... focus.html

Asia stocks mostly higher as China’s June industrial profit soars; gold surges to record
PUBLISHED SUN, JUL 26 20207:37 PM EDTUPDATED 42 MIN AGO

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... allup-poll

The US had a 33% global approval rating for 2019, just one percentage point ahead of China and 3% ahead of Russia. Germany outshines all three by a long stretch, with a 44% rating.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... lf-exports

Taiwan’s trade with mainland China has soared in the past six months and is expected to hit a record amount this year, despite deteriorating cross-strait relations.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/worl ... na-xi.html

As the World Gets Tougher on China, Japan Tries to Thread a Needle

If you are an American Fortune 500 CEO and your China division is the one growing unit you have right now, then you would feel that your strategy is correct. You would also be scared stiff to lose that market while the krauts, japs and the rest of the EU and Asia still have unfettered access.

Your natural ally is not the Democrats but the pro-business wing of the GOP. But the GOP is now taken over by ideologues and is looking at historic losses in November for making a complete mess of the chini virus while Europe has recovered and Japan, Korea and Taiwan were never hard hit. There is really little else for you to do than to try to work with Biden.

Unlike the ideologues for whom beating Cheen is enough, American MNCs need to beat a whole range of global rivals and losing the world's largest market is a distinct disadvantage to them.

srin · Post by **srin** » 27 Jul 2020 17:01

One of our highest foreign policy priorities for next couple of years needs to be to pull Russia out of China orbit. I don't think it is a comfortable situation for Russia to be dependent on China. It won't be easy, it almost likely requires a rapprochement between West and Russia. And western local politics is quite anti-Russia now. But stopping Russian supply of high tech arms is really important.

chola · Post by **chola** » 27 Jul 2020 17:30

^^^ Russia is not in Cheen's orbit any more than the US was in Cheen's orbit when Nixon parlayed with Mao against the USSR. Putin is using Cheen against the West in the same way. Russia will do what is good for Russia.

As you said, there will need to be rapproachment with the West. Right now Russia has lost access to the West so it will try to keep Cheen as an accessible market.

Not only Russia, the Germans, Japanese and Koreans are also using Cheen on the economic front. This game has many players.

The world is de-globalizing but some will have more privileged positions than others across the largest markets. Firms from US and Cheen will each lose one of the two largest markets. Their MNCs will be at a competitive disadvantage to those with access to both.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 27 Jul 2020 17:51

The West should be anti China as it's their real enemy but they are stuck being anti Russia. China has been their number one threat for awhile and they keep seeing the great enemy in Russia.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 27 Jul 2020 18:15

the pakis have well and truly hobbled themselves, with plenty more of the same to come in the near future

now one seriously wonders what the cheeni congi MOU is really all about

Chinese Dream: Xi’s attempted coup against Pakistan

Chinese Dream: Xi’s attempted coup against Pakistan

China's Communist leader has managed the creation of a supra-constitutional CPEC Authority

ALI SALMAN ANDANI
JULY 25, 2020

Xi Jinping is all set to sideline the democratically elected representatives and civil servants of the people of Pakistan so as to expand his direct influence over the political and economic processes of the country.

Since 2016, Xi, the general secretary of the Communist Party of China has been forcing the Pakistani establishment to put pressure on the government (it was Nawaz Sharif’s government back then) to sideline the Planning Ministry’s role in the implementation and monitoring of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Xi pushed for the creation of a supra-constitutional CPEC Authority that would freelance the management of the predatory infrastructure and power-generation projects under his direct command.

The proposal was rejected then, but last year it was again presented before the prime minister of the country – now Imran Khan. The reason given was timely completion of the projects.

This time the prime minister is a full-fledged puppet of the military establishment, and therefore it was easier than before to manipulate the law to fulfill Xi’s desire to take over the Planning Ministry of Pakistan, and in future the country itself.

I consider Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives one of the most crucial state institutions, whose senior bureaucrats could implicitly scrutinize and resist Xi’s draconian CPEC scheme, as they had access to all of the secret documents on the agreement and were involved, directly and indirectly, in the decision-making process.

So long as the reins were under the control of civilian institutions led by representatives of the people and civil servants, thorough accountability of Xi’s master plan at least at some level and at some point in time – if not at once – was possible. Sidelining the civil institutions altogether would allow Xi to play on both sides of the board.

The agreement was so highly confidential that even the secretary of maritime affairs once refused to show it to the Senate Standing Committee on Finance. So one can imagine what an above-the-law sort of deal it must be.

The CPEC Authority was established in October last year using a presidential ordinance (without parliament’s approval) for four months and then was given another four-month extension. But Xi wants permanent control. And now that the establishment has its puppet in the Prime Minister’s House, it is putting all of its efforts into making the Authority more powerful and a permanent part of the constitution by pushing it through parliament.

CPEC Authority Ordinance 2019. -Source: Pakistan Planning Commission website

Since the Authority has come into existence, its chairman has been a retired lieutenant-general.

Xi doesn’t want the Belt and Road Initiative or any of its components to be held accountable or face resistance. He knows that his Chinese Dream of indoctrination of a majority of free people of the world by 2050 will not be fulfilled if the people of the countries victimized by the BRI come to know about his strategy to destroy their futures and those of their future generations.

The truth is that he is burdening those countries in debt traps while they are already suffering from intense balance-of-payments crises. Xi will slowly poison Pakistan and other poor economies by creating extreme shortages of foreign-exchange reserves. In the end, these countries will have to accept the invasion of their political and economic systems by the Communist Party of China.

Four months ago, an inquiry into the workings of independent power producers (IPPs) took place in which two major coal-fired power-plant projects that were built under the CPEC – Huaneng Shandong Ruyi Energy and Port Qasim Electric Power Company – were found involved in corruption as they had misrepresented interest during construction to loot almost US$226 million from the dollar-strapped Pakistani economy.

The supra-constitutional CPEC Authority will act as the CPC’s subsidiary in Pakistan and will be responsible for conceiving, implementing, expanding, enforcing, controlling, regulating, coordinating, monitoring, evaluating and carrying out all activities related to the CPEC.

Furthermore, it will have the constitutional power to initiate an investigation and impose penalties against any public office holder (including the prime minister and president of Pakistan) or any other person who is directly or indirectly engaged in CPEC-related activities who willfully resist directions, instructions or specified orders of the CPEC Authority.

Even the prime minister’s powers will be limited to what is specified in the CPEC Authority Bill 2020. So he too will have to obey Xi’s commands.

According to a news report (that soon after its publication was mysteriously taken down), the chairman of the Authority – who, as noted above, is a retired lieutenant-general – will co-chair the Joint Cooperation Committee as the democratically elected planning minister will be removed from this position.

The JCC is the main decision-making body of CPEC. It has members from both Pakistan and China. But every year the Chinese officials at the JCC meetings browbeat the Pakistani officials as they review the making of Xi’s version of the East India Company.

As the world moves toward 2050, Xi’s plan of China’s ultimate control of the majority of the emerging-market economies is becoming crystal clear. At the cost of its sovereignty, territorial integrity and freedom of its people, the “selected” government of Pakistan is finding a permanent place in Xi’s basket.

Today he will attempt coup against the Ministry of Planning; next in his playbook could be its Defense Ministry, IT Ministry, Human Rights Ministry, Petroleum Ministry and many more.

nam · Post by **nam** » 27 Jul 2020 18:19

If US really wants, all it has to do is roll kick out China from access to dollar. Then watch how all the Europeans firms quickly roll back their plans for growth in China.

The European firm value access to US market & capital, more than the Chini one. All it requires is a Iranian style sanctions..

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 28 Jul 2020 00:31

chola wrote: If you are an American Fortune 500 CEO and your China division is the one growing unit you have right now, then you would feel that your strategy is correct. You would also be scared stiff to lose that market while the krauts, japs and the rest of the EU and Asia still have unfettered access.

One problem with this argument is that the examples you posted are not from reliable sources (CNBC, NYT etc). These are the same fake news outlets that last month did a comparison of Chinese and Indian militaries (# of planes, tanks) etc and concluded that India would be routed.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 28 Jul 2020 01:06

Stanford researcher allegedly concealed Chinese military ties -
Visiting neurologist faces federal visa fraud charge

https://mv-voice.com/news/2020/07/25/st ... itary-ties

chola · Post by **chola** » 28 Jul 2020 14:17

KL Dubey wrote:
chola wrote: If you are an American Fortune 500 CEO and your China division is the one growing unit you have right now, then you would feel that your strategy is correct. You would also be scared stiff to lose that market while the krauts, japs and the rest of the EU and Asia still have unfettered access.
One problem with this argument is that the examples you posted are not from reliable sources (CNBC, NYT etc). These are the same fake news outlets that last month did a comparison of Chinese and Indian militaries (# of planes, tanks) etc and concluded that India would be routed.

If that is the case then there is no reliable news in the world today. These are major news organizations that CEOs have on their proverbial desks every morning.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 28 Jul 2020 15:07

TWITTER

@TheWolfPackIN:

Crisis has erupted in a major Chinese research institute as 90 nuclear scientists resigned in a short period. CCP has launched an inquiry after calling it ''brain drain''
They had access to extremely sensitive information & their sudden resignation has raised many conspiracy theories

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 98753?s=19

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Jul 2020 17:38

chola wrote:^^^ Russia is not in Cheen's orbit any more than the US was in Cheen's orbit when Nixon parlayed with Mao against the USSR. Putin is using Cheen against the West in the same way. Russia will do what is good for Russia.

As you said, there will need to be rapproachment with the West. Right now Russia has lost access to the West so it will try to keep Cheen as an accessible market.

Not only Russia, the Germans, Japanese and Koreans are also using Cheen on the economic front. This game has many players.

The world is de-globalizing but some will have more privileged positions than others across the largest markets. Firms from US and Cheen will each lose one of the two largest markets. Their MNCs will be at a competitive disadvantage to those with access to both.

Chola, your earlier point of western mega MNCs is accurate with vested interests is accurate. It’s not just them, talk to a second tier firm out of Europe or Americas and if they have a manufacturing arm they have an interest there. Talk to the VCs and it’s the same story. What is more remarkable is how intertwined are the interests of the mega investment banks and China. Firms like Goldman have co developed and invested in state run universities in China. There is so much more than meets the eye.

And I can assure you that some of such who do visit frequently (as does the middle layer) partake of the delights to be offered in Shanghai or wherever. It is an absolute done.

The intertwining goes so much further.

chola · Post by **chola** » 28 Jul 2020 18:00

^^^ Actually, the chini market is the number pull. It is the world's largest market for most things even now. But unlike the US, EU or Japan, this market is forecast to grow along with the chini per capita income ($10K compared to 48K for Hong Kong. Profit margin for Western brands are extremely high too. And the local supply chain makes that even higher.

But yes, many American manufacturing SMEs prototype in Cheen because of the integrated components eco-sysyems there. If you have an idea, you don't spend years trying to build the parts in your garage. You go to or have an agent in Cheen to pull together the components so your idea becomes reality and then you produce in that eco-system. It's very efficient.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Jul 2020 18:37

^^^ But it's more than that. It's almost as though the western industrial complex transferred their need for "slave/indentured" labor to the Chinese manufacturing complex. Many of these know about how the supervisors in these factories ensure compliance - slaps and kicks are part of the daily menu of people are late and go out of line. These people know what happens but like the plantation owners of yore who allocated the dirty work to overseers, these people turn a blind eye.
It also goes beyond that, beyond just the industrial complex. China is a great medical complex for them.
I think all these people view China as an experiment on a non western civilization gone right. The native culture is eradicated and a massive compliant labor pool created. It's a wonderful quid pro quo.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 28 Jul 2020 19:54

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@TheWolfPackIN:

Crisis has erupted in a major Chinese research institute as 90 nuclear scientists resigned in a short period. CCP has launched an inquiry after calling it ''brain drain''
They had access to extremely sensitive information & their sudden resignation has raised many conspiracy theories
https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 98753?s=19

Resignation is all very well. But where can they go?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Jul 2020 23:19

https://m.timesofindia.com/home/sunday- ... 172512.cms
Frustrations about China run too deep in US, it can’t buy its way out this time, says US scholar

Are China’s border incursions India-specific or part of its broader assertiveness across Indo-Pacific as the Trump administration seems to suggest?
I think they are a product of both. The standoffs at the LAC have a logic of their own, and are designed in part to compel India to halt Indian infrastructure development near the disputed border. It’s a playbook China has drawn from before. That said, its activities this time have been far more provocative, and that is likely a product of the wolf warrior diplomacy we’ve been seeing across the region.

Is Galwan to US-India-China what Kargil was to US-India-Pakistan, a turning point where Washington expressed its support to India more assertively?
I It’s difficult to compare the two because there were different dynamics governing the India-Pakistan-US triangle. The US has already been fairly outspoken in support of India when it comes to China-related issues. That the US was more vocal during the latest standoff reflects the seriousness of the crisis, the first LAC counter to result in casualties in over 45 years. Overall, the US has been rather stalwart in supporting India across several international issues and crises in recent years, from Balakot, Pulwama, the Belt and Road Initiative, Article 370, sanctions on Pakistani-based terrorists, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, etc.

How much of this support is linked to the Trump administration’s own deteriorating ties with Beijing?
As I noted, the US has been fairly consistent in its support for India. I think it’s likely the US government would have adopted a similar position even without the accelerating fraying of relations with China.

Has India reached a situation where it is ready to give up its long-held policy of “have to live with neighbours however uncomfortably” and ally more overtly with the US to stand up to China?
You’ll have to ask the Indian government. Certainly in recent years it has been trending toward greater alignment with the US, and more alarm over the mounting threat from China. I suspect the latest crisis will serve to accelerate those trends but whether it leads to the type of paradigm shift you’re hinting at is an open question.

Will such a partnership or alliance outlast the four months or 4.4 years of the Trump administration? Are we seeing a long-term strategic shift in US policy towards China or is it more tactical, in that it can be overcome, say, with a Chinese buyout into a trade deal that will help Trump/US?
I believe the strategic partnership with India will endure beyond the Trump administration. The India-US partnership has enjoyed sustained bipartisan support in both countries across multiple governments and I don’t expect that to fundamentally change in a Biden or future Democratic administration. They will have different points of focus, and may draw more attention to Indian domestic policies with which they disagree, but will be compelled by the same strategic logic that has driven the two countries progressively closer for nearly twenty years. Logic that has only grown more compelling in recent years. I’d note India got special mention in the Democratic Party Platform released this week: “we will continue to invest in our strategic partnership with India — the world’s largest democracy, a nation of great diversity, and a growing Asia-Pacific power.”

I think the same holds true for China: the consensus that China poses a growing threat to the US, and requires a more robust response, is widely held and bipartisan in nature. I find it highly unlikely China will be able to buy its way out of this state of affairs, even if President Trump were favourably disposed. The frustration runs too deep across too many sectors of government, business, and civil society and will not be easily reversed.

Is China more deserving of “Distrust and Verify” (Trump administration’s new approach spelled out today) than Russia was of “Trust, but Verify” that Reagan used (albeit in the context of disarmament?)
I don't want to compare which country was more untrustworthy but "distrust and verify" seems warranted and appropriate.

Does China believe its time has come to mount a sustained long-term challenge on the US?
China’s actions suggest the current leadership in Beijing appears to think so. I find it likely that there are influential voices inside China that find the current approach counterproductive, and believe that the wolf warriors are overplaying their hand in foreign policy. But the culture of oppression and secrecy is so pervasive that it’s impossible to accurately gauge the level of dissent.

Where does India stand in the Chinese vision of itself and the world? Does India have the nerve/character/resilience to stand up to China? Can it do this on its own without US support?
India is viewed in Chinese policy circles as a subordinate middle power that likes to create mischief for Beijing and, occasionally needs to be reminded of its place in the pecking order. I believe that, at least for now, India does have the resilience to stand up to Beijing where its core interests are involved. But as China’s power and influence continues to spread further into the Indian Ocean and South Asia, the support provided by a close partnership with the US will become more imperative.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Jul 2020 02:11

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 181067.cms
Blow by blow, officials push US-China relations toward point of no return - NYT via ET

WASHINGTON — Step by step, blow by blow, the United States and China are dismantling decades of political, economic and social engagement, setting the stage for a new era of confrontation shaped by the views of the most hawkish voices on both sides.

With President Trump trailing badly in the polls as the election nears, his national security officials have intensified their attack on China in recent weeks, targeting its officials, diplomats and executives. While the strategy has reinforced a key campaign message, some American officials, worried Mr. Trump will lose, are also trying to engineer irreversible changes, according to people familiar with the thinking.

<snip>

The combined effect could prove to be Mr. Trump’s most consequential foreign policy legacy, even if it’s not one he has consistently pursued: the entrenchment of a fundamental strategic and ideological confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.

<snip>

“Below the president, Secretary Pompeo and other members of the administration appear to have broader goals,” said Ryan Hass, a China director on President Barack Obama’s National Security Council who is now at the Brookings Institution.
“They want to reorient the U.S.-China relationship toward an all-encompassing systemic rivalry that cannot be reversed by the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election,” he said. “They believe this reorientation is needed to put the United States on a competitive footing against its 21st-century geostrategic rival.”

<snip>

Given the size of each nation’s economy and their entwinement, there are limits to the unwinding of relations, or what some Trump officials call “decoupling.” In the United States, tycoons and business executives, who exercise enormous sway among politicians of both parties, will continue to push for a more moderate approach, as members of Mr. Trump’s cabinet who represent Wall Street interests have done. China is making leaps in science, technology and education that Americans and citizens of other Western nations will want to share in. In his Thursday speech, even Mr. Pompeo acknowledged, “China is deeply integrated into the global economy.”

<snip>

The relationship might not change course even if former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. defeats Mr. Trump in November. The idea of orienting American policy toward competition with China has had robust bipartisan support over the last three-and-a-half years.
The Chinese government’s initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak and its actions in Hong Kong, which is widely seen as a beacon of liberal values within China, have been signal moments this year, contributing to the tectonic shift in views across the political spectrum.
The China hawks in the administration have seized on them to publicly push their perspective: that the Chinese Communist Party seeks to expand its ideology and authoritarian vision worldwide, and that citizens of liberal nations must wake up to the dangers and gird themselves for a conflict that could last for decades.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 29 Jul 2020 07:12

Anyone here familiar with Notepad++? Notepad is a text editor built into Windows. Notepad++ is some third party software, a really powerful text editor, I don't think it has anything to do with Windows notepad other than the name.

Notepad++ has been naming its releases differently lately. One release not too long ago was named "Remembering Tiananmen 4 Julyne" or something like that. Another more recent release was "Free Uyghur" (their spelling). The most recent one expresses solidarity with Hong Kong. Apparently their company servers have been subjected to DOS attacks in retaliation.

EDIT: Sorry, June, not July. Interesting that it's a Vietnamese guy doing it. END EDIT.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 29 Jul 2020 07:25

N++ is standard issued at many engineering places. IIRC the author, Don Ho is Vietnamese.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 29 Jul 2020 07:27

sudarshan wrote:Another more recent release was "Free Uyghur" (their spelling).

They've been doing it for quite a while. I remember there was one for charlie hebdo as well. Never one for events like philadelphia bombings for exammple.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 29 Jul 2020 10:42

TWITTER

@Globaltimesnews:

Rumors say the US could launch attacks on Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea, but this is basically impossible, as the US knows this will lead to an all-out war: expert

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/sta ... 58978?s=19

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 29 Jul 2020 11:28

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@Globaltimesnews:

Rumors say the US could launch attacks on Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea, but this is basically impossible, as the US knows this will lead to an all-out war: expert
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/sta ... 58978?s=19

Also from the gobar times:

yes. Rumors say that US will nuke China but since the US won't do it, China wins (again) over the US. Yay.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 29 Jul 2020 12:02

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/f ... d=msedgntp
If Japan is being included in this group why is India being kept out??
Is this deliberate snub or strategic move in spite of all the 'Quad' talk?

kit · Post by **kit** » 29 Jul 2020 12:06

nandakumar wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@TheWolfPackIN:

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 98753?s=19
Resignation is all very well. But where can they go?

indeed

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Jul 2020 13:33

Rsatchi wrote:https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/f ... d=msedgntp
If Japan is being included in this group why is India being kept out??
Is this deliberate snub or strategic move in spite of all the 'Quad' talk?

1. You should at least provide the headline so that one know the subject under discussion/comment.

2. Has India ever expressed a desire for joining 5 eyes? Joining 5 eyes is not like forming QUAD or even BRICS grouping all of which can be setup just as a talk shop.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Jul 2020 13:48

Five Eyes are not a western program. They're entirely an Anglosphere surveillance and data sharing coordination system. Historically, the members have been US, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ, and that's been the case since its founding back in 1940 or so.

Could they add India ? That would require us to unambiguously ally with the west. Right now, most US sourced impressions advocate US-India alliance against the Chinese threat. These view it as the sole choice India has. But that's not quite true.

In this 3-person game theory exercise, these are the parameters:
#1: US, strongest and most powerful by far. Hates #2, wishes #3 ally with it against #2
#2: China: Nowhere as strong as the US or as strong as it thinks it is. Irredeemably opposed to #1s geopolitical leadership and wants to take the mantle it considers its own. Sees #3 as a smaller regional power to be kept to good behavior
#3: India. Weakest of the three. No civilizational beef with #1, sees #2 as artificially large due to its most recent dynasty conquering border regions far beyond its heartland. Desires to undo this and restore a buffer state between #2

We are the weakest party, but we have TWO choices, not one:
1. Ally unreservedly with the US. That's what the US wants. Thus #3 allies with #1 against #2.
2. Play #1 and #2 off against each other by driving and their relative paranoia about one another. Use the strategic space to grow and strengthen as #1 and #2 weaken each other.

Given these choices, Five Eyes is not a given. Japan on the other hand has fully signed up with the US. Even SoKo is not likely to be part of Five Eyes due to their history of political discomfort with the US armed forces presence on their land. which is far less so in Japan. I don't see India in this context at all - we're not interested in it and they're not interested in us.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Jul 2020 15:27

https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/stat ... 1961250817

Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossman

This is interesting: "In a significant step toward strengthening the resilience of our supply chains, the United States and Australia intend to establish a U.S. funded commercially operated strategic military fuel reserve in Darwin."

https://twitter.com/AyresAlyssa/status/ ... 3400733696

alyssa ayres @AyresAlyssa

Two refs to US & Aus working with India and then just a ton here on the Indo-Pacific: “Joint Statement on Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2020” - @StateDept

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 29 Jul 2020 19:28

Suraj wrote:Five Eyes are not a western program. They're entirely an Anglosphere surveillance and data sharing coordination system.

Could they add India ? That would require us to unambiguously ally with the west. Right now, most US sourced impressions advocate US-India alliance against the Chinese threat. These view it as the sole choice India has. But that's not quite true.

We are the weakest party, but we have TWO choices, not one:
1. Ally unreservedly with the US. That's what the US wants. Thus #3 allies with #1 against #2.
2. Play #1 and #2 off against each other by driving and their relative paranoia about one another. Use the strategic space to grow and strengthen as #1 and #2 weaken each other.

Given these choices, Five Eyes is not a given. Japan on the other hand has fully signed up with the US. Even SoKo is not likely to be part of Five Eyes due to their history of political discomfort with the US armed forces presence on their land. which is far less so in Japan. I don't see India in this context at all - we're not interested in it and they're not interested in us.

Surajji
Your explanation of choice 2 above : IS IT NOT A REHASH of the NAM nonsense, look where it has led us to.
Even though we were Non-A, we were in the Soviet block hence blocked from accessing top end Military stuff and Tech stuff during the Cold-War.
Had to make do with screw-drivergiri for most of the stuff and now look at the MIC chain in the country.
Acquisition of top end stuff bleeds us with precious FC reserves at times of needs like the current situation.
We cant produce a top end mobile phone or a laptop(I am not downgrading Tejas etc)
You might argue Look what happened to Napaks for all their help: Napk was a different story altogether : they just pimped themselves and you can only go so far with (What the napak say :JismPharoshi

) JP, as after some the client goes elsewhere for the thrills.
This time we have to make a decision of either #1 or #2 and of course #2 will be the end of our civilisation.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 29 Jul 2020 20:11

US aren't going to let anyone in the 5 eyes, not unless they have you by the balls. Even the French were refused a no-spy agreement and the NSA spying on Merkel is well known. India for sure isn't joining the "big dog+4 lackeys" club mostly because we're next in line when the chinis are taken care of.

If anyone has a shot of joining the 5-eyes, it'd most likely be Israel

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Jul 2020 21:31

Rsatchi wrote:Your explanation of choice 2 above : IS IT NOT A REHASH of the NAM nonsense, look where it has led us to.
Even though we were Non-A, we were in the Soviet block hence blocked from accessing top end Military stuff and Tech stuff during the Cold-War.

There’s no relationship between NAM and Option 2. You’ve misread the earlier post . Given that, the rest of your post doesn’t make much sense to me either since it’s based on a starting assumption that doesn’t line up with what I said.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Jul 2020 22:34

QUAD was setup as a talk shop which then progressed to a talk shop at a high level and is only now getting close to some sort of a joint naval exercise. It is still not much beyond a motley group with some common goals on China much less an alliance.

5-eyes are for tight alliance partners.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 29 Jul 2020 23:45

Google doing it's best to keep China related negative news from being auto completed. With today's news clicks, simply typing of China or mystery should have auto completed mystery seeds from China. But nope.

Mystery seeds from China are landing in Americans' mailboxes
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-seed ... solicited/

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 29 Jul 2020 23:55

Auto complete algorithm works based on what users type and not what they click.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 30 Jul 2020 02:25

chola wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
One problem with this argument is that the examples you posted are not from reliable sources (CNBC, NYT etc). These are the same fake news outlets that last month did a comparison of Chinese and Indian militaries (# of planes, tanks) etc and concluded that India would be routed.
If that is the case then there is no reliable news in the world today. These are major news organizations that CEOs have on their proverbial desks every morning.

The stories linked in your earlier message are either disingenuous or propaganda. None of them say anything "reliable", they simply rattle off numbers that have been collected from stock exchange data or other statistics. In that sense, I guess you can say they are "100% reliable". But none of them say much about what would happen if USA forces/expects its allies to join it in turning the screws on China. The SCMP story has one line about that, to the effect that all the "soaring trade with China" would stall if the USA told Taiwan not to do it. The "decoupling from China" effects may take some time to be seen, right ? I would presume CEOs know how their company and industry is doing in China, and getting information about important upcoming changes, without having to read it in the NYT one fine morning.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Jul 2020 04:23

Rsatchi, the screwdrivergiri hardware served us famously in our wars of '65 and '71where much vaunted western hardware used by Pak bit the dust. Sov. Styx missiles set Karachi ablaze and the PT-76 amphib. tank proved its worth in liberating BDesh. One can go on and on with examples upto today,BMos,MKIs and Akula subs just a few examples.

The Quad is being over-hyped quite rightly.As one wag put it ," the US will fight China to the last Indian". In retreat everywhere,even from non-hotspot Europe and Germany, Uncle Sam's boots onthe ground are heading home and the mighty massa wants its allies to fill the vacuum it's created ,India in the ICS. We on the other hand are loath to " take up the white man's burden", as Kipling so eloquently put it,but would like the combined "weight" of the Quad to deter the dragon,taking a leaf out of Sun Tzu's own tome,winning a war without having to fire shot. But quite accurately as pointed out,we have the wrong skin colour,not of Anglo- Saxon stock, and thus do not qualify for membership of the elite " 5 Eyes" club. No tricks from the Kamasutra will suffice.We will be admitted into the hallowed portals of the club only as bearers to the high table. Sadly, there are many in the establishment who espouse this attitude of servility in the hope that massa will provide at least provide us goz on the activities of the yellow peril.

Secondly the arrival of just 5 Rafales,like the proverbial swallow as the saying says" does not make a summer." The numbers are too little,even 36 a trifle, not the 126 planned for and cannot carry BMos inits cureent avatar .
small instead of the 126 planned. The Rafale cannot carry the mighty BMos in its current avatar. So let us place the very welcome of the these excellent fighters in their current context,remembering another famous quote about " quantity having a quality of their own."

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 30 Jul 2020 11:10

Philip wrote:Rsatchi, the screwdrivergiri hardware served us famously in our wars of '65 and '71where much vaunted western hardware used by Pak bit the dust. Sov. Styx missiles set Karachi ablaze and the PT-76 amphib. tank proved its worth in liberating BDesh.

It was not the hardware which made the difference, but the quality of men using it, their tactics and training, discipline & determination. For every Styx, there is a Bofors. For every PT-76, a Hunter.

In Kargil, both the Mirage and the MiG 29s did their jobs, in sync.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 Jul 2020 20:34

China warns India against 'forced decoupling' of their economies

(Reuters) - China warned on Thursday that a "forced decoupling" of its economy with India, following a Himalayan border clash last month that killed 20 Indian soldiers, would hurt both countries.
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Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Jul 2020 21:13

VinodTK wrote:China warns India against 'forced decoupling' of their economies
(Reuters) - China warned on Thursday that a "forced decoupling" of its economy with India, following a Himalayan border clash last month that killed 20 Indian soldiers, would hurt both countries.

Sounds like it's hurting them where it's meant to hurt. Good work, GoI .

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 30 Jul 2020 22:35

Manish_P wrote:
Philip wrote:Rsatchi, the screwdrivergiri hardware served us famously in our wars of '65 and '71where much vaunted western hardware used by Pak bit the dust. Sov. Styx missiles set Karachi ablaze and the PT-76 amphib. tank proved its worth in liberating BDesh.
It was not the hardware which made the difference, but the quality of men using it, their tactics and training, discipline & determination. For every Styx, there is a Bofors. For every PT-76, a Hunter.

In Kargil, both the Mirage and the MiG 29s did their jobs, in sync.

Amen to that Manishji!!
Philipji forgets that it was the men and not just the lovely 'Ruskie Toys'

who won all the wars.
And Surajji I still maintain a time will come when we have to decide on #1 or #2
Lets see we make the right decision.