Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 12:05

^^
No no ... No need to label him as being of the Chinese payroll.

The issue at hand is quite simple. Folks who are supposed to be "experts" are still stuck in the past ways of thinking. The level of their expertise consists in puking out a writeup based on bestern and chinese farts failing to realize that both trying to serve their own agenda. There is no independent thinking and/or reasoning.

I remember an foreign policy PHD with an Indian sounding name working at a foreign university write that CPEC has solved China's Malacca dilemma. So much for expertise. Most of the these folks are just in awe of the Chinese that they can't look/question past the smoke/mirror game that China has always played. I will go further. Even when the Chinese don't claim the heaven these folks claim the heaven on their behalf going by the logic of the "Inscrutable Chinese".

Some genius claimed that "Kra canal" project will solve the Chinese Malacca dilemma. Arre bhai has anyone look at the Map ever. Where is the supposed exit of the Kra canal on the BoB side? This is the level of expertise.

Even TKiran's last twitter summary is contradictory and can be demolished even without bringing any external data but just asking a few simple questions on the contradictory points. But who cares.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Apr 2018 17:38

These "experts" simply copypaste what can be found on Google just like news about Casmere was - for a decade "800000000000000000000000000000 cvilians killed and preganent wimmens had their bellies rippyed open"

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 18:32

Surprising no one has posted this news doing rounds for more than 24 hrs. I mean this is an opportunity to cry Modi paying obeisance to emperor Xi.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... sdMYI.html
Modi to hold talks with Xi Jinping on two-day visit to China next week
This will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fourth visit to China after he came to power in 2014.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 868875.cms
Modi-Xi to chart a new course for India-China ties at Wuhan summit

BEIJING: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a summit in China's Wuhan city from April 27 to 28 for a "heart-to-heart" chat to explore a new paradigm for India-China ties and find ways to address the contentious issues like the border dispute.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 19:34

BTW, even Chinese understand the difference between Tactical vs Strategic posture ...

https://www.oneindia.com/international/ ... 82438.html
India’s revised China policy just a tactical adjustment, says Chinese media

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 20:03

Ananth Krishnan @ananthkrishnan

Wang Yi says Modi’s visit at Xi’s invitation will be “a new milestone” in relations

Ananth Krishnan @ananthkrishnan

So #MaoALago is on. Will the venue be Mao’s private lakeside villa? Would be a pretty symbolic image on many levels: Nixon was hosted there, plus Xi in Mao’s villa

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 22 Apr 2018 20:16

pankajs wrote:BTW, even Chinese understand the difference between Tactical vs Strategic posture ...

https://www.oneindia.com/international/ ... 82438.html
India’s revised China policy just a tactical adjustment, says Chinese media

Why would they (or anyone else) not understand that? Does not make it less of a stupid idea to engage with China. The only side with a proven history of not understanding that, is ours.

The Global Times article is quite clear on the fact that they only see this approach as a sign of weakness. So we will get nothing useful out of this, just further salami-slicing by the Chinese the future govts/generations will have to pay the price for.

The fact that the likes of TOIlet and Hindustan Times are cheerleading this, is an ominous sign.

The summit provides an opportunity for the 64-year-old Chinese leader to elaborate on the contours of his oft-stated Chinese dream of national rejuvenation, while Modi was expected to highlight the importance of campaigns like the 'Make in India' and his vision of "Vasudeva Kutumbakam", (world as a single family) they said.

Funniest thing I have read in a while....would have been funnier if it wasn't a threat for us.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 20:21

Then engagement must be stupid idea for both if one follows the logic of Global times

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1098606.shtml
India’s revised China policy tactical adjustment, not strategic change

The warming of ties between China and India is out of the needs of both sides. In the short term, India hopes to have better relations with China so as to solve its domestic issues and develop its economy. In the long run, it wants to catch up with China in strength. China needs to watch India's words and deeds closely.

Couldn't be clearer and this coming from a Chinese *nationalist* rag. Of course, there is the usual Chinese trick in the above *full* quote which makes it appear one sided.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 22 Apr 2018 20:45

China is influencing the 2019 elections. While it's foregone conclusion that Modi is going to win, they want to decrease the Modi's strength in parliament by propping 'pappu' and the likes which is the public posturing. What is hidden is their playing both sides.

Actually BJP is more trapped by China than the opposition.

In elections you need money to satisfy the MPs that money is coming to BJP from those businesses who have more than 75% exposure to trade with China. Naturally there's pressure on Modi to ignore the national security interests of India in declaring the China as enemy and cut off all accommodation with China, but to engage China.

That's what this trip is all about.

If at all there's one opportunity to turbocharge India's economy to 15% growth trajectory (remember China had a decade of 20% + growth rate, so 15% growth rate for India's economy is not totally un-unviable) it is by cutting off trade with China and suffer for 2-3 years and then grow at 15%-20%.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2018 20:50

^^
Only Bakistan has the ~~morongiri~~ b@lls to declare other countries as enemy. Not even China has that kind of b@lls what to talk of India. India doesn't even have the b@lls to declare Bakistan as enemy state.

We are piddi wonlee and yes Modi/BJP needs money to fight elections.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 22 Apr 2018 23:24

TKiran wrote: If at all there's one opportunity to turbocharge India's economy to 15% growth trajectory (remember China had a decade of 20% + growth rate, so 15% growth rate for India's economy is not totally un-unviable) it is by cutting off trade with China and suffer for 2-3 years and then grow at 15%-20%.

I hope you didnt include inflation in your estimates. or are high. 20% growth rate for a decade!!!

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 23 Apr 2018 00:15

What is expected to change after this meet?

I am not sure what can be achieved. Will China stop backing Pakistan? Some sort of compromise on CPEC? Increased Chinese investment? Not sure I get it but I don't see anything changing.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Apr 2018 09:19

No one amongst the commentators .. not in India or China see one thing changing and that is why they are calling it tactical. The idea being suggested by these commentators is that both countries are keen to push the *inevitable* direct confrontation further down the road by mutual agreement.

Now it must be remembered that none of the commentator, at least on the Indian side, have any clue. So all of the above is just guesswork on their part.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Apr 2018 09:32

Will it be good if Chinese invest in infra projects such as HSR? IMO, they'd be happy to do so. After all, they took Japanese assistance at the very beginning, and those two countries have far more strained relationship than ours.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Apr 2018 09:43

In terms of technology China has very little to offer but it can certainly finance infra projects in India or they can take over finished projects on a commercial basis. E.g. they can invest in a *completed* toll road and earn the revenue. It will enable the previous Indian owner to recycle his investments into newer projects.

That way the they get to invest their surplus dollar for a tidy profit instead of the low yielding treasury bonds/notes were as we will get financing and infra built. It will be built by Indian companies, Indian labor and Indian raw material. This is not the OBOR/BRI model but a purely financing model just like WB/IMF/ADB financed projects. That can be a win-win deal.

IIRC, India is already the largest financial recipient of the BRICS bank or whatever it is called. This can be extended to direct finance by China and why not.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 23 Apr 2018 10:46

Chinese money is welcome if they can give us really low interest rates, but not the strings that come attached. No Chinese workers (maybe some extremely high-skilled roles like design consultants etc might be OK) and no Chinese equipment or other concessions to them, and all projects must be cleared from a national security perspective. In other words, they would have as much involvement in the ground as an FII and nothing more.

brvarsh · Post by **brvarsh** » 23 Apr 2018 11:16

Unfortunately Chinese money means Chinese workers following - We have seen everywhere specially in Africa and Pakistan.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Apr 2018 11:22

Indeed, both countries have abundant supply of labor that either govt will try to provide employment.

nam · Post by **nam** » 23 Apr 2018 14:19

China is trying to prevent India from going to US camp and US is trying to do it vice versa.

Given our size they have to make sure and given our size they cannot do it at gun point. Of course our neighbor in the west is professional at this.

So let's have our legs in both the boat. Just like the Chinese used US-USSR for their benefit, we do the same. Make money, publicly do hot cold with the Chinis and reach 10 trillion with MIC build up.

Then get the popcorn bucket and watch the game.

nam · Post by **nam** » 23 Apr 2018 14:22

brvarsh wrote:Unfortunately Chinese money means Chinese workers following - We have seen everywhere specially in Africa and Pakistan.

Believe it or not, India has strong WP rules. So it is not easy for the Chinese to send in truck load of workers. If they do, easy to raise hue and cry.

The Chinese cannot even force us, We can tell them to take their money and workers back to their hanland. They want to put money, it will be according to our rules.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Apr 2018 14:25

My only disagreement .

We will have our legs on our boat only and thank you very much. We will accept all help, monetary or otherwise, that others can offer to help make our boat stronger. We will do it our self. Others don't need to step into our boat. Just pass the funds.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Apr 2018 15:04

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKBN1HM03J
'Boiled frog syndrome': Germany's China problem

Even so, CEO Thomas Bauer, the seventh generation in his family to run the firm, is worried about his company’s place in China and a broader economic relationship that until recently was seen by German corporations and politicians as a lucrative one-way bet.

“Germany has put too many eggs into one basket, and that basket is China,” Bauer, a jovial 62-year-old with a thick Bavarian accent, told Reuters at the company’s headquarters in Schrobenhausen, an hour’s drive north of Munich.

Bauer’s BSAG.DE concern points to a growing fear in Germany. For more than a decade, the country has been the growth locomotive of Europe, its economy weathering global financial turmoil, the euro zone debt crisis and a record influx of refugees.

<snip>

A survey late last year from the German Chamber of Commerce in China showed that for the first time in many years, more than half of its members were not planning investments in new locations in China. Nearly 13 percent of German firms operating in China said they could leave within the next two years.

For decades, Germany’s approach to China could be summed up with the motto “Wandel durch Handel” (change through trade).

Now that strategy is in tatters and government officials joke darkly that the “win-win” relationship has a new meaning: China wins twice.

“The hope was that closer economic ties would lead to an opening. Today it is clear this was a false hope,” said a German government official. “They tell us what we want to hear and then do the opposite.”

Should be an opportunity for India.

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 23 Apr 2018 15:20

kancha wrote:Folks, posted a thread on twitter on the Chinese peacekeepers running away under fire in South Sudan in July 2015. One of the few documented instances of the performance of the PLA in actual operations in recent past.
Do have a look

Twitter Link
Blog Link

Part II of the series - A first person commentary by one of our own who was there, and played a key role in rescuing the PLA Peacekeepers.

Twitter Link
Blog Link

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 23 Apr 2018 15:24

pankajs wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKBN1HM03J
'Boiled frog syndrome': Germany's China problem

Even so, CEO Thomas Bauer, the seventh generation in his family to run the firm, is worried about his company’s place in China and a broader economic relationship that until recently was seen by German corporations and politicians as a lucrative one-way bet.

“Germany has put too many eggs into one basket, and that basket is China,” Bauer, a jovial 62-year-old with a thick Bavarian accent, told Reuters at the company’s headquarters in Schrobenhausen, an hour’s drive north of Munich.

Bauer’s BSAG.DE concern points to a growing fear in Germany. For more than a decade, the country has been the growth locomotive of Europe, its economy weathering global financial turmoil, the euro zone debt crisis and a record influx of refugees.

<snip>

A survey late last year from the German Chamber of Commerce in China showed that for the first time in many years, more than half of its members were not planning investments in new locations in China. Nearly 13 percent of German firms operating in China said they could leave within the next two years.

For decades, Germany’s approach to China could be summed up with the motto “Wandel durch Handel” (change through trade).

Now that strategy is in tatters and government officials joke darkly that the “win-win” relationship has a new meaning: China wins twice.

“The hope was that closer economic ties would lead to an opening. Today it is clear this was a false hope,” said a German government official. “They tell us what we want to hear and then do the opposite.”
Should be an opportunity for India.

A little OT but why do European countries shoot themselves in the foot and do not consider India/Indians as alternative. If they had invested the same money/effort in India, the dharmic Indians would have played by the rules unlike the Hans. Same with their intake of Muslim refugees. Why not open gates for Indians instead? After all, Indians are the most disciplined, law abiding & productive workforce outside of India.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 23 Apr 2018 17:53

TKiran wrote:....remember China had a decade of 20% + growth rate.....

https://www.thechinahustlefilm.com/videos/

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 23 Apr 2018 18:50

One thing to notice is Gaganshakthi followed by meeting. Page of Han's textbook torn

kit · Post by **kit** » 23 Apr 2018 19:20

Exercises like the GS need to be done at least every 5 years with increasing complexity scope scale and range of operations . This is the best deterrence apart from a robust military stance . I would call this the "cowboy swagger " of capability. All those westerns where the hero shoots off every unlikely and impossible target is akin to this. Most of potential rivals would rather save their skin and only the true enemy will show its colors., that needs to promptly dealt with suitably.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 23 Apr 2018 20:46

prasannasimha wrote:One thing to notice is Gaganshakthi followed by meeting. Page of Han's textbook torn

If GS has been planned for this meeting, then I dont think it would be at a very long prep time. I dont remember reading about it on BRF or elsewher long before teh exercise.
Ability to pull off such a big exercise in a short time should also do be a rude awakening to those who thought IAF is saddled with obsolete flying coffins and junk fighters. Maritime sorties to sunda/mallacca should not leave any doubt in the minds for whom it was intended and what it was intended for. FWIW, IDRW reporting Su30 carrying b'mos carried sorties and b'mos hit bull's eye. Not very clear with this part, but whatever is the reality, that is not in the realm of chinese quantum computing sattelite or J20.
Someone quoted dragon v/s elephant/tiger. Dragon is imaginary and elephant/tiger are for real.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 23 Apr 2018 21:02

In short:
Chinese loans - yes
Chinese equity - no

That should be our approach. They are cash rich and ready to finance stuff. Let's take it, at fixed rates and bearing all the risks and rewards at our end. They should not be allowed to take ownership (beyond some small limit, say 10%) in Indian companies, period. I am sure we can find some WTO compatible excuse for enforcing this - or of course we have the purgatory way which is "please drop your applications here and we will get back to you when we finish examining them - which is never".

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 23 Apr 2018 23:04

I dont know what it is but something interesting and may be big seems to be going between India & China, RM, NSA visit, SS visit and now modi visit.
little media glare, no mention of NSG, LAC, border dispute. Little news from chinese mouthpieces.
One question I have is that does it mean something if only one country goes to other, like it's all India going to China. From media mgmt point it makes sense, because in case of any chinese visit, Indian media will be all over the place talking about settlement as compared to china where news is what xi/cpc decide.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 24 Apr 2018 03:10

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

China reassures Pakistan on ties ahead of Xi's meeting with Modi

BEIJING: China on Monday reassured Pakistan that relations between the two countries were as firm as ever and would “never rust”, ahead of a meeting this week between President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that could unnerve Islamabad.

China and Pakistan like to call each other “all weather friends” and their traditional close ties have long been viewed with suspicion by Pakistan’s neighbour and traditional enemy, India.

But Modi has tried to reset relations with Beijing after a years of disagreements over everything from their border to exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, and will hold an informal summit with Xi on Friday and Saturday in China.

China will continue to firmly support Pakistan, its top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, told Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif at a meeting in Beijing.

“We are ready to work together with our Pakistani brothers to undertake the historical mission of national rejuvenation and achieve the great dream of national prosperity and development,” Wang said. “In this way, our iron friendship with Pakistan will never rust and be tempered into steel.”

There was no mention of the Xi-Modi meeting in comments made in front of reporters.

Cheers

RCase · Post by **RCase** » 24 Apr 2018 03:19

Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

China reassures Pakistan on ties ahead of Xi's meeting with Modi

BEIJING: China on Monday reassured Pakistan that relations between the two countries were as firm as ever and would “never rust”, ahead of a meeting this week between President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that could unnerve Islamabad.

Ilon Blothel is all weathel and wirr not lust. (After all Pakistan is all 'greased up').

Time for new addition to slogan - China Pakistan 'all weather' friendship is like stainless steel that never rusts.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 24 Apr 2018 10:33

yensoy wrote:In short:
Chinese loans - yes
Chinese equity - no

That should be our approach. They are cash rich and ready to finance stuff. Let's take it, at fixed rates and bearing all the risks and rewards at our end. They should not be allowed to take ownership (beyond some small limit, say 10%) in Indian companies, period. I am sure we can find some WTO compatible excuse for enforcing this - or of course we have the purgatory way which is "please drop your applications here and we will get back to you when we finish examining them - which is never".

Once upon a time there used to be a king of pigeons called 'chitragreeva'. (You can also call it 'modi kabootar').

The pigeons used to live in a jungle on a బూరుగు చెట్టు (a big tree). Daily at dawn they all used to flock together to the edge of the jungle where there was a village and they used to feast on "daana" and return to their nests before the dusk.

One day when they were flocking to the village, on their way they saw "వడ్లు" (the rice without schaff) on the ground. Then an old pigeon (you may wanna call it 'pankajs kabootar' ) says, "hey we have our food right here, we don't need to go all the way to the village, we can eat here itself, let's go..". Then another kabootar (you may wanna call it 'yesoy kabootar' etc) "yes guys we are all hungry let's feast".

Then there's a 'TKiran kabootar' which says "guys, cool down, how can rice come in the middle of the jungle? There could be some trouble here, I will tell you the story of a old tiger. Once upon a time there lived a tiger which killed a lot of animals during its prime years, but now it's old and can't hunt, it has a plan, the old tiger takes a golden కంకణం ring of a man it killed long ago. It's big and shining. It rests under the peepal tree waiting for it's prey. One priest was going along the path and sees the tiger and climbs up a tree. The tiger says "o priest, I have a golden ring for you, please come and take it." The priest says, "No you are a cruel animal you will kill and eat me.".

The tiger says, " I did a lot of "paapa" during my life time, my intention is to reduce my "paapa" by gifting this golden ring to you".

The priest thinks that he can come out of all his poverty once he sells off the golden ring. He goes close to the tiger to take the ring. The tiger kills the priest and satiates it's hunger.

Hence, we should not get into trouble, let's go to the village for our"daana" "

But lots of pigeons insist on the feast down below. Chitragreeva though understands the wisdom of 'TKiran kabootar', says, I have a Raja Dharma, that I should be with my folks, so all the pigeons get down to eat the daana in the middle of the jungle.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2018 10:37

Good story!

Btw, instead of answering questions all you do is tell stories. You did not reply to my questions on you Yuan assertions. There are posts after posts of similar *discussions*.

Btw, btw .. unlike your / your inspirations I don't claim infallibility. Remember your post on someone who has never been wrong in ...was it 20+ years?

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 24 Apr 2018 10:55

I lost you TKiran.

They need to park their money. We have tactical dealings with them. They want strategic dealings to further their long term goals. We deny them that. It is that simple. We are not fools to fall hook line and sinker for their OBOR vision, Xi thought and all the other glorious stuff coming from China. But that doesn't mean we can't have a beneficial supplier-consumer relationship with them - ensuring that they never get a monopoly position on anything, and compete fiercely for our business.

This game can be played but you need the testicular fortitude to play it. So far government seems to know what it is doing.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 24 Apr 2018 11:08

^^^ cool yensoy, 'honi ko koi nahin Taal sakta'.

Let's hope 'Modi kabootar' is as wise and resourceful as "chitragreeva" and he would rescue us from the crisis, once we get into the crisis. In fact, the "crisis management of chitragreeva" is a topic in IIM Bangalore, but that's too much OT here.

What "chitragreeva" does is as follows...

When the pigeons get ~~Chinese~~ trapped, by the net which was layed by the "hunter", when pigeons try to fly, they are pulled by the weight of the other pigeons, and the hunter is fast approaching, chitragreeva says, we are in 'crisis', we have to first get out of the crisis. I will count 1,2,3 and all you guys fly simultaneously."

The pigeons start to fly along with the net. But the hunter starts running below in the hope that when the pigeons get tired, they may come down, and he can catch them. But the pigeons fly high and far, and when they were sure that the danger from the hunter is gone, they all simultaneously come down on a big rock to think and formulate a strategy to come out of the trap.

Chitragreeva says, "I know a guy who can cut the threads of the net. His name is 'hiranyaka'. He is a rat. He lives far away and he is very 'timid'. We have to get his help.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 24 Apr 2018 11:12

pankajs wrote:Good story!

It's not a story, it's the codified form of "statecraft" popularly known in "Andhra" as "Panchatantra".

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2018 11:17

^^
Just as infallible as your favorite strategic analyst? IIRC, this fav analyst of your, who you claimed has never been wrong, suggested that India learn from Philippines on how to deal with China!

Do you want me to repost the post or do you remember?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2018 13:50

I haven't read the fart. The drawing tickled me. Even here there is a subliminal message, actually 3.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1099296.shtml
Trump’s policies bring Beijing, Delhi closer together

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Apr 2018 14:19

yensoy wrote:In short:
Chinese loans - yes
Chinese equity - no

That should be our approach..

It should be other way around. Chinese with Equity becomes their risk. Loan becomes our risk . In fact we should do how the Chinese do. Create dummy companies and make chinese invest in them and let them sink.

Crowd funding is huge in China. They are funding all sort of startup. This money should come here and ideally sink..

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 24 Apr 2018 14:47

nam wrote:
yensoy wrote:In short:
Chinese loans - yes
Chinese equity - no

That should be our approach..
It should be other way around. Chinese with Equity becomes their risk. Loan becomes our risk . In fact we should do how the Chinese do. Create dummy companies and make chinese invest in them and let them sink.

Crowd funding is huge in China. They are funding all sort of startup. This money should come here and ideally sink..

If failing is part of your strategy, or you are intent on shooting yourself in the foot, then sure let them get equity.

But if you want to succeed, or expect to succeed, would you rather reap all the fruits of your success than have a major share (together with the votes to make decisions) given to the Chinese?