https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/worl ... 88&gwt=pay
When Modi and Xi Meet, Indian Elections Will Set the Tone
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN APRIL 26, 2018
NEW DELHI — When the leaders of the world’s two most populous nations meet on Friday in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India will be pushing to get less from President Xi Jinping of China.
Less trouble like the embarrassing territorial showdown that put the two countries on alert last year. Less worry of the kind India is feeling right now about rising Chinese influence on its doorstep, in Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives.
Analysts say Mr. Modi is fixated on winning next year’s election in India. And it is a measure of the fraught relationship between China and India right now that he is seen as needing Mr. Xi’s help to do that.
Officials from both countries are describing the leaders’ meeting, which came at India’s request, as a chance to “reset” relations. But it is clear that Mr. Modi will be seeking assurances from Mr. Xi.
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Mr. Modi’s hope, analysts say, is that the interaction this week will include some quality leader-to-leader time like he had with Mr. Xi during a summit meeting in India in 2014, when Mr. Modi brought Mr. Xi to his home state, Gujarat, where they sat together on a swing.
Still, analysts say Mr. Modi needs Mr. Xi more than Mr. Xi needs Mr. Modi.
“India is no longer in a position to compete with China,” said Jonathan Holslag, a professor at the Free University of Brussels. “It has failed to bolster its national power through industrialization, as China did, yet remains too proud to replace its nonalignment strategy with a real alliance with the United States. As a result, it continues to get weaker.”
India and the United States have grown close in recent years, probably closer than they have ever been. The two nations share countless business ties and a commitment to democracy and have agreed to cooperate on nuclear activities. And President Trump has spoken of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” which China regards as a thinly veiled attempt to recruit India’s help in containing it.
“The Chinese know that India is a critical swing state, probably the most critical swing state in the world,” said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. “If India would ally with the U.S. and other democratic powers, it would greatly impinge on China.”
But that may not necessarily happen, Mr. Chellaney said, because the United States itself has not stood up forcefully to China, which makes India cautious about being too closely identified as joining the anti-China camp.
“Will the U.S. really help us if China were to launch a strategic attack?” he said. “That is a question a lot of Asian countries are now asking.”
India’s style of government — highly decentralized, with nearly two dozen officially recognized languages and a noisy democracy — is anathema to China’s iron-fisted central control. In the battle for influence across the South Asia region, Mr. Modi tries to use this, emphasizing India’s tradition of tolerance and diversity.
But it does not always work, partly because of money. China has so much more, and it is pouring huge amounts into Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and the Maldives — all South Asian countries traditionally dependent on India that are now feeling China’s pull.
As for Pakistan, India’s most direct rival, China is especially generous, recently committing to more than $50 billion in infrastructure projects there.
In 1980, India’s and China’s economies were about the same size. But in the decades since, while China has rapidly industrialized, India has struggled more. China’s economy is now about five times larger than India’s.
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Gautam