Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 05 May 2018 12:54

Karthik S wrote:
pankajs wrote:The latest China/Japan news is bery very interesting. I will attempt to connect the dots that I forgot to do in my last post.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China meets with India and is planning to meet Japan soon to "try to mend fences". This latest bit of news on Japan opens up new speculative possibilities.

One can easily observe the following.
1. India and Japan are the flanks to China IF China is forced to take on America head-to-head.
2. India and Japan are the flanks to the American core in the quad. Australia is a distant tail.

With the above in mind, it might even be argued that China, in preparation of a coming confrontation with America on trade or otherwise, is trying to secure its flanks by "making peace/try to mend fences" with India/Japan in quick succession, even if this is a tactical move. Thus the Wuhan initiative seems to be driven more by China's fear/desire than India's.


The day China realizes propping up pakis to check India is a futile step that doesn't help China in any way, the magnitude of distrust between our two countries will come down by large margin.


Forget australia.

they will cheer from the sidelines and only make ambiguous noises.

They have skin in the game as far as china is concerned and it only remains to be seen as to how far that particular leash will stretch.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 05 May 2018 13:54

I think Abe & Modi have had some sort of understanding about China and hence the Xi-Modi and now Xi-Abe meeting. It is a given that Modi and Abe discuss China & may have joined their efforts, given their close personal relationship.

Australia is a Chinese h0re, not to be counted on.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 05 May 2018 14:03

China's Xi Jinping free trader to world, champion of Marx at home - AP
To the world, China's President Xi Jinping presents himself as a champion of free markets. At home, he's leading a campaign to promote the works of communist philosopher Karl Marx, who 150 years ago famously warned of the dangers of global capitalism.

"Marx was Correct," declared a slickly produced TV special that's part of a state media campaign rolled out by Xi's administration this week seeking to popularize Marx among younger Chinese raised in an era of market-style economic reform. The campaign featured a catchy theme song, dramatic readings, and an article titled "Say Hi to Marx" showing an illustration of the white-bearded Marx making a trendy V-for-victory sign.

"Today, we commemorate Marx in order to pay tribute to the greatest thinker in the history of mankind and also to declare our firm belief in the scientific truth of Marxism," Xi said in a speech Friday prominently displayed across state media platforms.

It's all about cementing the power of Xi and the ruling Communist Party and combating liberal Western democratic concepts thought to threaten its rule, using a legacy dating way past the 1949 Chinese revolution, analysts say.

The madness for Marx dovetails with a drive to "Sinicize" culture, religion and ideology by instilling social control through the teachings of the ancient philosopher Confucius, said Perry Link, an American expert on Chinese literature and politics.

"Neither embrace has anything to do with intellectual content and everything to do with bolstering political power today," Link wrote in an email.

The Marx media blitz is mainly for domestic consumption. On the global stage, Xi is striving to cast his country as a modern champion of free trade. Last year, he became the first Chinese president to attend the World Economic Forum, a glitzy gathering of champagne-sipping globalists at a Swiss Alpine resort in Davos, where he made a high-profile speech advocating free markets.

Xi's goal is to portray China as a responsible economic power while showing the world and domestic critics that Beijing will persist in pursuing its own path of Chinese-style Marxism, said Willy Lam, an expert on Chinese politics at the Chinese University in Hong Kong.

"He's striking a defiant pose to the West and opponents at home that China will not buckle under," Lam said.

The Marxism mantra faces an uphill battle, though, given the widening gulf between the communist leadership and Chinese youth who tend to be enamored with celebrity gossip and irreverent social satire that goes viral across social media before it is censored.


"It's extremely hard to push Marxism in modern China especially in this internet era. What it presents is severely unrealistic," said Zhang Lifan, a Beijing-based independent political analyst.

"Even inside China, I believe most party members don't understand or believe in Marxism anymore," Zhang said. "Instead, they just use it as a tool for promotion."

Xi's zeal for Marxist thought may partly reflect his own experience. Like millions of urban youths of his generation, as a teenager he was "sent-down" to the countryside to do manual labor instead of going to school during the bloody turmoil of the ultra-leftist 1964-76 Cultural Revolution.

"Xi is limited to his knowledge and education in the past, so this is what he knows," said Zhang. "The younger generations who are very independent are totally different from them."

The new campaign is timed to coincide with the bicentennial of Marx's birth and the 170th anniversary of the publication of the "Communist Manifesto," which along with "Das Kapital" helped shape much modern thought about labor, social classes and economic and political systems.

Those works, some produced in collaboration with Friedrich Engels, are the bedrock of communism. But his thought and image have been eclipsed over three decades of rapid industrialization and social change. For the economy, China's communist leaders no longer advocate total state control or class struggle. On the political front, the party has been tightening its iron grip on power, swiftly crushing real and perceived threats.

Xi has gone even further to clinch his status as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, sidelining or prosecuting rivals and having his own "thought" written into the party constitution. In March, the rubber-stamp legislature removed presidential term limits from the Chinese constitution, enabling him to remain head of state indefinitely.

All that, plus the vigorous Marx and Confucius campaigns, point not to strength but to insecurity, Link said.

"I'm not sure Xi's personal political position is as secure as it appears," Link said. "Purging his rivals motivates his rivals; and popular support would quickly go south if something bad, like an economic downturn, suddenly appeared."

The party's jitters are apparent in its crusade against universal values, independent legal activists and liberal democratic thought, its crackdowns on what the authorities deem unhealthy, such as an online forum for discussing LGBT issues to the satirical retooling of the British cartoon character Peppa the Pig.

Instead, party ideologues say, why not Marx as a healthy alternative?

State broadcaster CCTV's "Marx was Correct" special featured stylish animation, a studio audience of college students and a question and answer session. Each episode concluded with a soft-rock ode to Marx, "Your Name, Our Strength," accompanied by video depicting China's rise from the time of Marx's birth to recent accomplishments such as bullet trains and the Chinese navy's first aircraft carrier.

Marxism "should be consolidated as the guiding ideology and promoted in campuses, classrooms, and among students," Xi said during a visit to the School of Marxism at prestigious Peking University, considered one of the cradles of Chinese communism, which recently added a research institute on Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism With Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby V_Raman » 05 May 2018 14:06

I think all this is due to USA turning the screws on goods deficit. China knows it has to given in to an extent where it will be felt on the ground. China desperately needs the Indian market. India should extract its tons of flesh.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby V_Raman » 05 May 2018 14:09

Btw, the movement against Chinese goods at local business level is real in USA. I went to 2-3 furniture stores and many pieces were from India. One owner said that this is due to the general apprehension about getting goods from China and India/Vietnam are good alternatives!!!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ShauryaT » 05 May 2018 21:40


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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Peregrine » 06 May 2018 04:09

PM Modi foxes Chinese mandarins with details of his 1st trip to Wuhan

NEW DELHI: For once the Chinese mandarins were caught napping by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his informal summit with President Xi Jinping in Wuhan, China's ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui revealed on Saturday.

During his first one-on-one meeting with President Xi at the Hubei Provincial Museum, Prime Minister Modi told his host that this was his second visit to Hubei province, surprising the Chinese officials, who otherwise keep a track of all bilateral and official visits minutely.

"We didn't know that Prime Minister Modi had visited Wuhan earlier," Luo told the participants of a seminar on the two-day informal summit between the leaders of India and China held in Wuhan city from April 27.

Modi told Xi that when he was the Gujarat chief minister, he had an opportunity to visit central China's Hubei Province on a study tour to learn about the massive Three Gorges Dam. Modi was the Gujarat chief minister from October 2001 to May 2014

"The speed with which you constructed this dam and its scale inspired me. So I came on a study tour and spent a day at the dam," Modi had told Xi.

As the world's largest hydropower project, the Three Gorges project is a multifunctional water control system on the mighty Yangtze river. It comprises a dam stretching 2,309 meters long and 185 meters high, 32 hydropower turbo-generators, a five-tier ship lock and ship lift system.

Luo said China took special care to provide an enabling and comfortable environment for Prime Minister Modi in Wuhan, with the ambassador himself carrying with him table clothes from Gujarat and Assam tea for the visiting dignitary.

While sharing some of the efforts made by the Chinese leadership to make Prime Minister Modi feel at home in the central Chinese city, over 1,000 km from Beijing, Luo said President Xi has met the Indian premier 13 times in the last five years of his first term.

Luo said Chinese officials came to know that Prime Minister Modi liked table clothes from Gujarat. "So we decided to use them during the informal summit."

"We didn't serve Chinese tea to Prime Minister Modi but Assam tea," he said.

During the summit, the two leaders agreed to build on the rich cultures of the two great oriental civilisations and harness the rich human resources of their combined population of 2.6 billion.

President Xi and Prime Minister Modi agreed to step up cultural exchanges by promoting people-to-people links and unleashing the vitality of the two emerging economies.

For this, the two sides have agreed to establish a high-level cultural and people-to-people exchange mechanism, the envoy said.

Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby krisna » 06 May 2018 18:59

Something to emulate from from our PM NaMo practising Make in India even abroad- Assam tea and Gujarat table cloths. :D

Also the Chinese ambassador carrying it. :rotfl:

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kiranA » 07 May 2018 05:02

SSridhar wrote:
kiranA wrote:This is a terrible disappointment and reminds me of demon where modi took a secret decision and sprang a surprise on everyone. We all know how that went.

kiranA, what has it got to do with this thread ? Don't attempt derailment. Take it as an informal warning.


It was just a comment on the style of governance - personalized and secretive - and that it did not yield positive results. IN retrospective I should have realized that this will trigger some posters in to various other dimensions. I do regret mentioning demon here.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kiranA » 07 May 2018 05:12

Meanwhile Brahma chellaney a known hawk on china makes pretty much the same points I make (ofcourse others too like Manoj Joshi of ORF https://www.orfonline.org/research/modi ... -weakness/ and Sadhanand Dhume of wsj makes the same point https://www.wsj.com/articles/modi-signa ... 1525388274).

Brahma's can be read here https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/India-C ... -strategy2

There are two major issues - the major differences between the statements from India and China after the summit and how the differences play out. In every difference it comes out as if India is trying to ingratiate itself to China while China doesn't really seem to care. This was pointedly noted by all of them and actually its kinda obvious. COming from eye to eye in Doklam this is a very cavalier change in direction and matter of real concern.

I also agree with Brahma chellaney analysis that Trump did not do much for India. But why did Modi administration pin so much hopes on Trump ? Why such warmth despite Trump making clear where he stands on trade and on non-immigrant work visas which drastically effect India's software competitivess. It is clear that incorrect analysis and false hopes on Trump policy has lead to wayward and sharply changing policy towards China. There are systemic weakness in this administration in analysing global issues and accurately gauging them.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ShauryaT » 07 May 2018 08:17

Please remove, if posted earlier.
Why did China agree to Wuhan?

RODERICK MACFARQUHAR, Leroy Williams Research Professor of History and Political Science at Harvard is a leading international authority on Chinese politics. He was born in pre-Partition Punjab and has maintained a life-long interest in India. These two sides of his intellectual personality — appreciation of India and scholarly depth on China — put him in a unique position to interpret President Xi Jinping’s Wuhan summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He spoke at length to ASHUTOSH VARSHNEY, director, Center for Contemporary South Asia, Brown University, and contributing editor for The Indian Express, in his office at Harvard. Excerpts:

There are several puzzling aspects to the Wuhan Summit. Even if one believes, as is being argued in some circles, that India asked for an informal summit, why would China agree to have one?

I think Xi Jinping regards India as a potential ally of the US and Japan against China. India by itself is not a serious problem. The border is in control of the Chinese if they wish to exercise it, simply because they are on higher slopes and have more troops there. But anything which arrests India’s potential drift towards the US and its allies is good for China. The Chinese were perhaps quite happy to have an informal summit: they could hear what Modi had to say and placate him a little. It was no skin off their nose. It was not in Beijing where they might have had to roll out the red carpets. And being informal, no documentary evidence was required for any agreements of great significance.

So an informal summit was a low-cost, high-benefit option for China.

That is right. And Modi, I would suspect, also wanted some kind of assurance that whatever problems he has with Pakistan until the 2019 elections, China as Pakistan’s benefactor did not jump up and down on its border, and threaten India.

The importance of Modi-Xi meeting

Why Wuhan? Any great significance?

Not much, except for the fact that it is a major industrial city, has been for a long time, and the 1911 Republican revolution started there. An informal summit would normally take place in a place other than Beijing or Shanghai.

If you look at the statements made by Xi after the summit, he emphasised two things: one, that India and China should look at their relations from a strategic perspective; and two, that a deeper and wider exchange between the two great civilisations is desirable. Why these two things?

The strategic perspective is quite simple: India, you have come closer to the US, but before you commit yourself too strongly, think carefully about your interests. America is far away, and we are your powerful neighbour. Think of how America under Trump is behaving with its allies, and they might forget you, too. We will always be here.

Is Japan important to the strategic perspective?

Japan and India, by themselves, would not worry China. If they get together with the US, that is much more worrying.


And the civilisational argument?

That is perhaps some former Chinese ambassadors to India advising the speech writers of Xi that Indians are very civilisation-conscious. They think Buddhism spread from India to China and the world, that Chinese monks came across the mountains to learn from India. Arguments about India’s civilisational wealth generally go down well with the Indians. To talk about India’s civilisation is good diplomacy.

Do the Chinese not think in civilisational terms?

Yes, but not the same way. India has spawned quite a few civilisations, several religions and a diversity of cultures. The Chinese have never emphasised diversity as a civilisational virtue. Theirs is a very different concept of civilisation.

Other than the strategic and civilisational arguments, economic development is another topic that appears in the post-summit statements.

Xi would have had his tongue in his cheek. The Chinese do not think they need India for its development. India does look to China with economic admiration but China does not. Deeper economic relations with India could be viewed as a means to an end, a means to ensure that India does not drift off into a US-Japan-India strategic triangle.

So your argument appears to be that the primary purpose of China’s foreign policy vis-à-vis India today is to pre-empt its possible strategic drift towards the US and Japan.

I would certainly say so. But let me add one more thing to the equation. Compared to India, China takes Japan more seriously. If there were a clash — not a war — in the East China and South China Seas and the combined might of the Japanese and Americans humiliated China, that would be a very serious blow to the Chinese. It would be especially damaging to Xi who thinks of the Chinese military as his ultimate basis of support.

Can we talk about the implications of the Wuhan summit for Pakistan? Especially intriguing is the suggestion in the post-summit statements that India and China should pursue “a joint economic project” in Afghanistan?

That idea must have come from the Indians. India knows that if its Afghanistan projects are undertaken by the Indians alone, then the Taliban, supported by Pakistani military, will mount attacks. The Taliban would not attack joint China-India projects, for the Pakistanis would not allow that to happen. Pakistan is simply too indebted to China. Moreover, China has its own interests in Pakistan. China is building a port there, and there is a China-Pakistan economic corridor, too. These are projects that serve Chinese interests.

Reports in Chinese newspapers suggest that both Xi and Modi have agreed to direct their armies to implement confidence-building measures. Is it your understanding that while both countries view the border problem as relatively intractable in the short run, they would like to avoid skirmishes, and until such time that a resolution is found, they believe they can do business on other matters?

That, I think, would be the Indian desire. The Chinese perspective would be slightly different. They already have Aksai Chin and they have had it for a long time. I don’t think they are massively keen on adding Arunachal Pradesh to their territory. That is not in their interest. What they would like is to keep the pot boiling, so they can use it whenever they don’t like what India is doing. The Chinese would want India to have a nagging fear that the Chinese can raise the temperature in Arunachal Pradesh whenever they want to.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 07 May 2018 20:11

RODERICK MACFARQUHAR, Leroy Williams Research Professor of History and Political Science at Harvard is a leading international authority on Chinese politics. He was born in pre-Partition Punjab and has maintained a life-long interest in India. These two sides of his intellectual personality — appreciation of India and scholarly depth on China — put him in a unique position to interpret President Xi Jinping’s Wuhan summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He spoke at length to ASHUTOSH VARSHNEY, director, Center for Contemporary South Asia, Brown University, and contributing editor for The Indian Express, in his office at Harvard. Excerpts:

There are several puzzling aspects to the Wuhan Summit. Even if one believes, as is being argued in some circles, that India asked for an informal summit, why would China agree to have one?

I think Xi Jinping regards India as a potential ally of the US and Japan against China. India by itself is not a serious problem. The border is in control of the Chinese if they wish to exercise it, simply because they are on higher slopes and have more troops there.


If the self appointed expert thinks, this is the case, then reading the remaining part of the article is waste of time.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby hnair » 08 May 2018 09:27

nam, was about to post the exact same! Those lines at the beginning, make the rest of the long article, kinda waste of time.

But this is a huge issue for India - Harvard spins out a large number of POTUS and other lower luminaries of khan's administrative machinery. Thanks to their Schools of Public Administrations, Boston's Charles River university collective has some serious heft in DC circles, be it those who rose via the attorney route of politics or even post-military career types. In any kind of contingency, those peoples will go back to those who taught them and get insights or advice from them. If this chap (who was Brit MP to boot!) is the level of understanding about "India and China", such insights and advice will be severely faulty.

This is the sort that feeds a Madeliene Albright or a Joe Biden kind of condescending approach, which sets back hardwork by other more rational figures. This is not good for all sides, particularly since cheen seem to be getting a long free pass for bad behaviour

From the drivel dished out with a sonorous drone, first thought was this is an Oz-moose, because as a nation, australians are the last of the condescending types towards India (even seem to train Indian migrants in that skill!). Brits and khan have moved a bit away from that. But this old cadaver might be a relic of the pre-coldwar british mindset

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 08 May 2018 12:02

ShauryaT wrote:Please remove, if posted earlier.
Why did China agree to Wuhan?

RODERICK MACFARQUHAR, Leroy Williams Research Professor of History and Political Science at Harvard is a leading international authority on Chinese politics. He was born in pre-Partition Punjab and has maintained a life-long interest in India. These two sides of his intellectual personality — appreciation of India and scholarly depth on China — put him in a unique position to interpret President Xi Jinping’s Wuhan summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He spoke at length to ASHUTOSH VARSHNEY, director, Center for Contemporary South Asia, Brown University, and contributing editor for The Indian Express, in his office at Harvard. Excerpts:

There are several puzzling aspects to the Wuhan Summit. Even if one believes, as is being argued in some circles, that India asked for an informal summit, why would China agree to have one?

I think Xi Jinping regards India as a potential ally of the US and Japan against China. India by itself is not a serious problem. The border is in control of the Chinese if they wish to exercise it, simply because they are on higher slopes and have more troops there. But anything which arrests India’s potential drift towards the US and its allies is good for China. The Chinese were perhaps quite happy to have an informal summit: they could hear what Modi had to say and placate him a little. It was no skin off their nose. It was not in Beijing where they might have had to roll out the red carpets. And being informal, no documentary evidence was required for any agreements of great significance.

So an informal summit was a low-cost, high-benefit option for China.

That is right. And Modi, I would suspect, also wanted some kind of assurance that whatever problems he has with Pakistan until the 2019 elections, China as Pakistan’s benefactor did not jump up and down on its border, and threaten India.

The importance of Modi-Xi meeting

Why Wuhan? Any great significance?

Not much, except for the fact that it is a major industrial city, has been for a long time, and the 1911 Republican revolution started there. An informal summit would normally take place in a place other than Beijing or Shanghai.

If you look at the statements made by Xi after the summit, he emphasised two things: one, that India and China should look at their relations from a strategic perspective; and two, that a deeper and wider exchange between the two great civilisations is desirable. Why these two things?

The strategic perspective is quite simple: India, you have come closer to the US, but before you commit yourself too strongly, think carefully about your interests. America is far away, and we are your powerful neighbour. Think of how America under Trump is behaving with its allies, and they might forget you, too. We will always be here.

Is Japan important to the strategic perspective?

Japan and India, by themselves, would not worry China. If they get together with the US, that is much more worrying.


And the civilisational argument?

That is perhaps some former Chinese ambassadors to India advising the speech writers of Xi that Indians are very civilisation-conscious. They think Buddhism spread from India to China and the world, that Chinese monks came across the mountains to learn from India. Arguments about India’s civilisational wealth generally go down well with the Indians. To talk about India’s civilisation is good diplomacy.

Do the Chinese not think in civilisational terms?

Yes, but not the same way. India has spawned quite a few civilisations, several religions and a diversity of cultures. The Chinese have never emphasised diversity as a civilisational virtue. Theirs is a very different concept of civilisation.

Other than the strategic and civilisational arguments, economic development is another topic that appears in the post-summit statements.

Xi would have had his tongue in his cheek. The Chinese do not think they need India for its development. India does look to China with economic admiration but China does not. Deeper economic relations with India could be viewed as a means to an end, a means to ensure that India does not drift off into a US-Japan-India strategic triangle.

So your argument appears to be that the primary purpose of China’s foreign policy vis-à-vis India today is to pre-empt its possible strategic drift towards the US and Japan.

I would certainly say so. But let me add one more thing to the equation. Compared to India, China takes Japan more seriously. If there were a clash — not a war — in the East China and South China Seas and the combined might of the Japanese and Americans humiliated China, that would be a very serious blow to the Chinese. It would be especially damaging to Xi who thinks of the Chinese military as his ultimate basis of support.

Can we talk about the implications of the Wuhan summit for Pakistan? Especially intriguing is the suggestion in the post-summit statements that India and China should pursue “a joint economic project” in Afghanistan?

That idea must have come from the Indians. India knows that if its Afghanistan projects are undertaken by the Indians alone, then the Taliban, supported by Pakistani military, will mount attacks. The Taliban would not attack joint China-India projects, for the Pakistanis would not allow that to happen. Pakistan is simply too indebted to China. Moreover, China has its own interests in Pakistan. China is building a port there, and there is a China-Pakistan economic corridor, too. These are projects that serve Chinese interests.

Reports in Chinese newspapers suggest that both Xi and Modi have agreed to direct their armies to implement confidence-building measures. Is it your understanding that while both countries view the border problem as relatively intractable in the short run, they would like to avoid skirmishes, and until such time that a resolution is found, they believe they can do business on other matters?

That, I think, would be the Indian desire. The Chinese perspective would be slightly different. They already have Aksai Chin and they have had it for a long time. I don’t think they are massively keen on adding Arunachal Pradesh to their territory. That is not in their interest. What they would like is to keep the pot boiling, so they can use it whenever they don’t like what India is doing. The Chinese would want India to have a nagging fear that the Chinese can raise the temperature in Arunachal Pradesh whenever they want to.


Arunachal pradesh is beyond the grasp of the chinese now.

Any chinese noises regarding AP is akin to dogs barking at a passing caravan.

The situation is not mere chest thumping but the drastic change, since 1962, both in the economy as well as India's military stance that renders such an exercise more than futile.

However, it would be wise and prudent to carry a big nuclear stick and also keep the proverbial powder dry, just in case some trigger happy chinese general, with a burr up his backside, goes off the reservation.

Doklam has certainly not helped the confidence of the chinese, notwithstanding whatever may have happened there later. The widespread appreciation for India's determined stand at doklam has also given the chinese a measure of their own standing in the international arena.

Any move towards annexing AP by the chinese will precipitate many a global crises in terms of trade, a massive consolidation of the anti china block and the many informal red lines that already exist being recarved in stone and not in the interest of the chinese.

The global resentment against the chinese and their strong arm methods will cause a coalescing of other interests and will quickly puncture their currently fragile economy and defeat the purpose of the OBOR, BRI and even the CPEC.

Their SLOCs are insecure, gwadar is presently a no show, and their ever present fears of the blockade via the straits of malacca has not materially changed in any way. Any crisis here will send oil prices skyrocketing. All imports into china will also become very much more costlier.

Their latent fears regarding tibet have already been reawakened by a rising India. Tibet has always been a simmering international cause célèbre. India's endorsement of china's stand on tibet is very important to them.

Under Modi, that one china meme is now irrevocably tied to the chinese acknowledging the One India meme. This will not change in the future too.

Their salami slicing techniques will however continue and it is a part of their 4th generation warfare techniques and is merely a variation on the 4th generation warfare techniques being used by the pakis.

The chinese and the pakis pioneered the use of violent non state actors and asymmetric warfare techniques in the Indian subcontinent. For a long time India was in the catchup mode but of late there are indications that India may have started the deployment of such techniques themselves.

India is learning too and fast. Stone pelter casualties are increasing as they are bound to. We only need to see how the israelis handled the palestine stone pelters. Those very techniques are being refined and used in cashmere.

The profound effect of demon on stone pelting was there for all to see. The cashmiris are like all muslims, they are transactional and prefer to be paid in advance and in cash as well.

No money, no jig jig is what the stone pelters have told their masters.

A central offshore brain is coordinating and directing all the violence in cashmere. Block the internet for a month and monitor telephone calls to see the effect of the whatsapp and other groups on the stone pelting and jehadi activities.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 08 May 2018 17:12

Has India played into China’s hands in Wuhan?
For China, the return of the Hindi-Chini bhai bhai era is a win-win situation. It means India will mute its criticisms and not challenge China
Updated: May 07, 2018 18:31:48
By Brahma Chellaney

Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, Napoleon’s famous foreign minister, prescribed a basic rule for pragmatic foreign policy: “by no means show too much zeal”. In India’s case, oozing zealousness, gushy expectations and self-deluding hype have blighted foreign policy under successive leaders, except for a period under Indira Gandhi. Zeal has been to India’s male prime ministers what grand strategy is to great powers.

India has rushed to believe what it wanted to believe. Consequently, India is the only known country to have repeatedly cried betrayal, not by friends, but by adversaries in whom it reposed trust. India’s foreign policy since Independence can actually be summed up in three words: hug, then repent.

Consider Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s abrupt U-turn in China policy. Stemming the deterioration in relations with Beijing makes eminent sense so as to create more strategic space for India. With escalating US sanctions forcing Russia to pivot to China even as Washington still treats Beijing with kid gloves, India can rely on an unpredictable and transactional Donald Trump administration only at its own peril. During the Doklam standoff, for example, Washington stayed neutral.




To leverage any policy change, the shift must be subtle, nuanced and measured, with the country displaying not zeal but a readiness to move forward reciprocally. Modi’s first attempt to “reset” ties with China in 2014 boomeranged spectacularly. Still, his latest reset effort began as a jarring volte-face, or what a Global Times commentary hailed as “India’s prudence in addressing Beijing’s concerns over the Dalai Lama”. The cabinet secretary’s intentionally leaked advisory to peers in February was a propitiatory message to China that India has changed its policy to shun official relations with the Dalai Lama and other exiled Tibetan leaders.

It was Modi who sought an “informal” summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, conveying his readiness to travel to China for such a meeting. In this century, Chinese presidents or premiers have visited India a total of seven times, including twice for BRICS summits. But Modi, in office for barely four years, will be making his fifth visit to China next month for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

To be sure, Modi’s predecessor, Manmohan Singh, displayed no less zeal toward China. With the era of Hindi-Chini bhai bhai now back, Congress president Rahul Gandhi plans to shortly visit the sacred mountain-and-lake duo of Kailash-Mansarover, access to which China punitively cut off for Indians last year. Beijing has now agreed to reopen such access and also resume transfer of hydrological data, but only after it demonstrated its “right” to act punitively, whenever it wants, even by breaching binding bilateral accords, as on sharing Brahmaputra and Sutlej flow data.

For China, the return of the Hindi-Chini bhai bhai era creates a win-win situation. It means India will mute its criticisms and not challenge China. Nor will India leverage trade or threaten Trump-style punitive tariffs to level the playing field. China thus will have its cake and eat it too — it will savour a fast-growing trade surplus (which has already doubled under Modi) while it mounts strategic pressure on multiple Indian flanks.

So, Xi seized on Modi’s overtures by inviting him to his Wuhan parlour — “the prettiest little parlour that ever you did spy”, to quote a line from the poem The Spider and the Fly. Xi’s generous hospitality extended to glowing State-media coverage. But what did Modi return with? Tellingly, China’s press release supports neither of India’s two key claims — that Xi and Modi “issued strategic guidance” to their respective militaries to prevent further border friction and that the two agreed to “balanced and sustainable” trade.

Winston Churchill famously said, “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last”. Modi’s Reset 2.0 seeks to feed the giant crocodile across the Himalayas in the hope of buying peace for India. Modi’s faith in the power of his personal diplomacy is redolent of Jawaharlal Nehru’s similar approach to foreign policy. But as happened under Nehru, Modi’s fond hope conflicts with China’s grand strategy. Xi is determined to make China great again by fair means or foul, including keeping a potential peer competitor like India in check.

If Modi’s Wuhan trip is not to bring trouble like his Lahore visit, which engendered deadly, Pakistan-scripted terrorist attacks on army bases, India will have to be on its guard. China has already outflanked India by stealthily occupying much of Doklam. As the philosopher George Santayana warned, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.



https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... LWuKI.html
Last edited by TKiran on 08 May 2018 20:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby vinod » 08 May 2018 17:50

Chinese Missiles...

For a quarter century, the U.S. and its allies owned the skies, fighting wars secure in the knowledge that no opponent could compete in the air. As tensions with Russia and China surge, that’s no longer the case.

....

According to Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Russia’s potential approval for China to resell its jet engines to Pakistan was the most frequent topic of discussion at weekly meetings of the National Security Council when she was assistant secretary to the NSC Secretariat from 2003-2007. If Pakistan’s jets were equipped with the new radar and China’s PL-10 missiles, now available for export, India’s aging Russian MiGs would struggle to compete, she said.

The arms sales are symptomatic of a much more worrying regional realignment of Russia – traditionally India’s biggest arms supplier – with China, said Rajagopalan, now head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank. “The Russians are in a weak position now, and they feel it is better to be in the Chinese camp,” she said.

India last month put out an international call for bids for a $15 billion contract to provide 110 new combat aircraft. Pakistan has just over 100 JF-17s and is producing 25 new ones a year.

...


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 08 May 2018 20:15

TKiran wrote:
Has India played into China’s hands in Wuhan?
For China, the return of the Hindi-Chini bhai bhai era is a win-win situation. It means India will mute its criticisms and not challenge China
Updated: May 07, 2018 18:31:48
By Brahma Chellaney

Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, Napoleon’s famous foreign minister, prescribed a basic rule for pragmatic foreign policy: “by no means show too much zeal”. In India’s case, oozing zealousness, gushy expectations and self-deluding hype have blighted foreign policy under successive leaders, except for a period under Indira Gandhi.

..……


I agree with most of the analysis. I cant understand the meaning of Wuhan, perhaps we will have to wait for the next 5 years to see if there was anything chankian in this meeting. But on the face of it, it does look like we have been played with US non-commital and an unreliable ally and Russia closer to China than ever before, things do look tough. But I never expected Modi to go to China to ask for peace and cooperation.

China currently sees no challenge from India or Japan unless it pushes them past a severe red line. It will not leave Pakistan, it will not stop meddling in India's sphere of influence because India hasnt been able to give it back to them and will not in the near future as well. There is no way where this meeting goes India's way unless it was backed by a threat of violence (GS18?).

If anything chankian is not considered, then China will keep doing what it was doing and may not directly prick the Indian Armed forces, but will keep building TSPA, attempt to install favourable regimes in the vicinity, acquire more assets and build the OBOR, blocking India out of these markets. It is the latter which is the biggest problem.

But anyway, no right way to handle China right now with our limited resources. Just hope that Modi will increase defense budget to over 3.5% to make up for the lost decades and build capabilities at a break neck speed. Till now nothing like that looks coming though which is extremely disappointing.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 08 May 2018 20:56

Chandragupta wrote:
TKiran wrote:


I agree with most of the analysis. I cant understand the meaning of Wuhan, perhaps we will have to wait for the next 5 years to see if there was anything chankian in this meeting. But on the face of it, it does look like we have been played with US non-commital and an unreliable ally and Russia closer to China than ever before, things do look tough. But I never expected Modi to go to China to ask for peace and cooperation.

China currently sees no challenge from India or Japan unless it pushes them past a severe red line. It will not leave Pakistan, it will not stop meddling in India's sphere of influence because India hasnt been able to give it back to them and will not in the near future as well. There is no way where this meeting goes India's way unless it was backed by a threat of violence (GS18?).

If anything chankian is not considered, then China will keep doing what it was doing and may not directly prick the Indian Armed forces, but will keep building TSPA, attempt to install favourable regimes in the vicinity, acquire more assets and build the OBOR, blocking India out of these markets. It is the latter which is the biggest problem.

But anyway, no right way to handle China right now with our limited resources. Just hope that Modi will increase defense budget to over 3.5% to make up for the lost decades and build capabilities at a break neck speed. Till now nothing like that looks coming though which is extremely disappointing.


But I never expected Modi to go to China to ask for peace and cooperation.


I don't think that Modi has done any such thing. It is against everything that he stands for and also against his nature.

I would not take anybody's speculations as the gospel. There is a need to wait and see what actually happened at wuhan.

If bhai bhai was at all on the cards, doklam need not have happened. The post showdown Doklam buildup by the chinese was not an outflanking but a petulant, sly and in your face sort of move by a sore loser who was thwarted very unexpectedly. India has already effectively covered this play by the hans so it is more of a mexican standoff sort of a situation at doklam.

Neither side is going anywhere in a hurry and also, neither side has backed down. More importantly, India has not lost any face here, and truth be told, it has gained stature after doklam.

This is just the Hindu mentality of some "strategic" experts coming to the fore and needlessly so.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 08 May 2018 21:23

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7610&start=1480#p2269244

From way back ...
pankajs wrote:Closest one can get to the GOI/Modi thinking
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/narendra-modi-xi-jinping-meeting-china-visit-couple-therapy-5153295/
Couple therapy [by Ram Madhav; Very Bad choice of the headline]

Modi-Xi meeting in Wuhan city is not centred on outcomes but on greater understanding of the other

<snip>

What are the achievables? What will be the outcome? Friends ask. This meeting is not “outcome-centric”, it is “understanding-centric”.

But folks create their own scenario in their mind and then get scared of this *self-created* scenario. Experts are as prone to this disease as the layman. There is NO fix for such a malady.

Added Later: One gentleman recently wanted *all* trade between India and China banned without any impact analysis. That is hormones speaking for you not logic backed by fact.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 08 May 2018 22:04

chetak wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:
I agree with most of the analysis. I cant understand the meaning of Wuhan, perhaps we will have to wait for the next 5 years to see if there was anything chankian in this meeting. But on the face of it, it does look like we have been played with US non-commital and an unreliable ally and Russia closer to China than ever before, things do look tough. But I never expected Modi to go to China to ask for peace and cooperation.

China currently sees no challenge from India or Japan unless it pushes them past a severe red line. It will not leave Pakistan, it will not stop meddling in India's sphere of influence because India hasnt been able to give it back to them and will not in the near future as well. There is no way where this meeting goes India's way unless it was backed by a threat of violence (GS18?).

If anything chankian is not considered, then China will keep doing what it was doing and may not directly prick the Indian Armed forces, but will keep building TSPA, attempt to install favourable regimes in the vicinity, acquire more assets and build the OBOR, blocking India out of these markets. It is the latter which is the biggest problem.

But anyway, no right way to handle China right now with our limited resources. Just hope that Modi will increase defense budget to over 3.5% to make up for the lost decades and build capabilities at a break neck speed. Till now nothing like that looks coming though which is extremely disappointing.


But I never expected Modi to go to China to ask for peace and cooperation.


I don't think that Modi has done any such thing. It is against everything that he stands for and also against his nature.

I would not take anybody's speculations as the gospel. There is a need to wait and see what actually happened at wuhan.

If bhai bhai was at all on the cards, doklam need not have happened. The post showdown Doklam buildup by the chinese was not an outflanking but a petulant, sly and in your face sort of move by a sore loser who was thwarted very unexpectedly. India has already effectively covered this play by the hans so it is more of a mexican standoff sort of a situation at doklam.

Neither side is going anywhere in a hurry and also, neither side has backed down. More importantly, India has not lost any face here, and truth be told, it has gained stature after doklam.

This is just the Hindu mentality of some "strategic" experts coming to the fore and needlessly so.


Yes, that's not Modi's style of politics I agree. That's what I was talking about is that such a move will be unexpected. But I can't understand what can the Chinese change about themselves -

a. will they abandon Pakistan - doubtful
b. will they cede strategic space for India in our own sphere of influence - doubtful
c. will they invest in & build Indian industry - doubtful
d. will they balance the highly skewed Sino-Indian trade - doubtful

So I don't quite understand what will China give us without being pressured. Of course, if India threatens China with action on the ground - whether it be violence or other, including trade & thwarting plans for OBOR, then all the above are on discussion table and China will concede. So may be there was a well stated threat of violence via GaganShakti followed by Modi's visit to list out India's concerns. If we see action on these points in the next 1-2 years, then the hypothesis will be validated, if we see hot borders with China or China further needling India, then I'm afraid what Chellaney has written will be spot on.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 08 May 2018 23:37

Chandragupta wrote:
chetak wrote:


I don't think that Modi has done any such thing. It is against everything that he stands for and also against his nature.

I would not take anybody's speculations as the gospel. There is a need to wait and see what actually happened at wuhan.

If bhai bhai was at all on the cards, doklam need not have happened. The post showdown Doklam buildup by the chinese was not an outflanking but a petulant, sly and in your face sort of move by a sore loser who was thwarted very unexpectedly. India has already effectively covered this play by the hans so it is more of a mexican standoff sort of a situation at doklam.

Neither side is going anywhere in a hurry and also, neither side has backed down. More importantly, India has not lost any face here, and truth be told, it has gained stature after doklam.

This is just the Hindu mentality of some "strategic" experts coming to the fore and needlessly so.


Yes, that's not Modi's style of politics I agree. That's what I was talking about is that such a move will be unexpected. But I can't understand what can the Chinese change about themselves -

a. will they abandon Pakistan - doubtful
b. will they cede strategic space for India in our own sphere of influence - doubtful
c. will they invest in & build Indian industry - doubtful
d. will they balance the highly skewed Sino-Indian trade - doubtful

So I don't quite understand what will China give us without being pressured. Of course, if India threatens China with action on the ground - whether it be violence or other, including trade & thwarting plans for OBOR, then all the above are on discussion table and China will concede. So may be there was a well stated threat of violence via GaganShakti followed by Modi's visit to list out India's concerns. If we see action on these points in the next 1-2 years, then the hypothesis will be validated, if we see hot borders with China or China further needling India, then I'm afraid what Chellaney has written will be spot on.


No need for the hans to abandon the pakis. CPEC is enough to screw them up both good.

the restive paki jehadis are not a passive lot like the lankans. They will create trouble for the paki govt as well as the hans if they are not given their perceived "share" in terms of jobs and the opportunity to work and make a living.

Especially now that the gulf opportunities are shutting down for the pakis and a lot of the pakis are doing menial jobs locally in paki towns and cities or sitting idle in their homes in pakiland. It is under circumstances like these that local terrorism and terror recruits increase substantially.

The resentment of the jehadi paki abduls when they realize that they have been taken for a ride is the beginning of the serious han troubles in pakiland.

Balance of trade issue is within India's purview. Just restrict it to balance it. WTO be damned. It will lead to bad blood, yes, but the chinese bleeding of India has to stop or they have to provide equal possibilities to trade for India.

If the hans needle us, the country will back Modi solidly, before or after 2019. The hans will not commit such a serious blunder because they also want Modi out. Same goes for the pakis who are dreading a Modi led second BJP term.

The hans will not concede anything to India in the strategic space just as India will also exert itself to reduce or usurp the han space, wherever it can.

BTW, I was speaking to a doctor friend today and he was saying that the number of maldivian patients coming to Bangalore has increased many fold.

The taqiya lot from maldives are still jamming up Indian hospital beds. You well know now what can be done in such a case.

One stone to bugger two birds, the maldivian govt and the hans themselves.

The question is, do we have the big, brown and hairy testimonials to get the job done??

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 09 May 2018 00:08

hnair wrote:But this is a huge issue for India - Harvard spins out a large number of POTUS and other lower luminaries of khan's administrative machinery. Thanks to their Schools of Public Administrations, Boston's Charles River university collective has some serious heft in DC circles, be it those who rose via the attorney route of politics or even post-military career types. In any kind of contingency, those peoples will go back to those who taught them and get insights or advice from them. If this chap (who was Brit MP to boot!) is the level of understanding about "India and China", such insights and advice will be severely faulty.

This is the sort that feeds a Madeliene Albright or a Joe Biden kind of condescending approach, which sets back hardwork by other more rational figures. This is not good for all sides, particularly since cheen seem to be getting a long free pass for bad behaviour



The points you mentioned reminded me of a episode on West Wing tv series, where India invades Pakistan. The US president asks his advisors "when you say invasion, is it bunch of guys in couple of trucks crossing the border"?

"400 thousand troops,Mr. President".

In a way, I don't mind this. Our neighbor in the west has profited quiet handsomely from the being the "weaker party". We could use some of those skills.

I am more concerned about our mandarins believing in this nonsense.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 09 May 2018 00:19

^^^^^^^

Our mandarins are and have always been complicit with the lootyens paki agenda. Their club and gymkhana memberships are dependent on this symbiotic patronage.

track thoo would not exist without these guys. Where do you think garbage like mani shankar aiyer sprang from??

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prem » 09 May 2018 09:11

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... yptr=yahoo
Breakthrough in China-Japan Relations

As Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe welcomes top leaders from both China and South Korea to Tokyo for the first time in seven years, he has been presented with an awkward agenda item: North Korea.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will take part in the trilateral summit in Japan’s capital on Wednesday, signaling their intent to lay aside disagreements over territory and history. Such meetings had been an annual event until antagonism over disputed islands boiled over in 2012.Securing the summit ought to be a triumph for Abe, who had pushed for the three-way talks as a stepping stone to normalizing ties with Japan’s biggest trading partner, China. Instead, the regional spotlight has been stolen by North Korea following Kim Jong Un’s breakthrough meeting with Moon last month and theunprecedented summit he plans to hold with U.S. President Donald Trump.The drama intensified Tuesday as Kim traveled to China for his second meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in less than two months, and Trump dispatched U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to prepare for the upcoming summit.While China, Japan and South Korea each have an intense interest in resolving the standoff over Kim’s nuclear weapons program, their differing approaches make it hard to agree on anything substantive. Abe has hewed closely to Trump’s call for maintaining “maximum pressure” to induce Kim to give up his nuclear weapons and missiles, whereas China and South Korea have sought gestures to encourage compromise by Kim.“Japan has always been less enthusiastic about North-South rapprochement than other countries in the region,” said Amy King, senior lecturer at the Australian National University. “China and South Korea will need to be able to find ways to reassure Japan that North-South rapprochement will not come at the expense of Japan’s own security,” to reach any substantive agreement, she added.
The three-way meeting will focus more on cooperation between the countries than on North Korea, China’s vice foreign minister, Kong Xuanyou, told reporters last week, while Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Tuesday that he wanted the leaders to establish a common direction on the issue. Abe also wants to ensure that his concerns about Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea decades ago are taken seriously.The group might still find some common ground on trade, after Trump threatened action against all three to reverse decades of expanding trade surpluses with the U.S. The trio accounts for about one-fifth of global economic output.More progress is expected from Abe’s one-on-one summit with Li, which the Japanese leader wants to use as a springboard for a trip to Beijing and an eventual visit by Xi to Japan. While Moon departs within the day, Li has been given the status of an official guest, and he and Abe will visit the northern island of Hokkaido together as part of a leisurely trip that runs through Friday.The two will agree on a series of projects, Japanese media have reported, from a transfer of crested ibises to the launch of a maritime and air communications mechanism aimed at avoiding unintended military clashes at sea. They will sign a deal on resuming currency swaps and China will grant Japan investment quotas in its bond and equity markets, Li said in an essay published in Japan’s Asahi newspaper. Economic ties are the binding element here, and we are likely to hear more at the meeting about the Japanese response to OBOR,” she added, referring to Xi’s signature “One Belt, One Road” regional infrastructure plans.
The week’s events are likely to provide a welcome domestic boost for Abe, whose voter support has been damaged by a series of scandals ahead of an election for leadership of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September.The summit’s main deliverable is the fact that these proud countries are talking,” said Giulio Pugliese, a lecturer at King’s College London and author of a book on China-Japanese ties. “That is a positive in itself.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 09 May 2018 21:48

‘China Dashboard’ Reveals Stalled Economic Reforms -- Asia Society


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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Peregrine » 10 May 2018 02:31

The reality check that brought Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping together

India-China relations have continued to be plagued by mistrust, ever since the 1962 Sino-Indian border war. India was caught unaware by the surprise attack, especially when it had espoused the Chinese cause at the international forum. Then Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, even went to the extent of supporting China’s membership of the United Nations Security Council at India’s expense, since it is believed to have been offered a permanent seat as well by the US and the Soviet Union.

The war came as a severe jolt to Nehru, who had always believed in strong India-China relations. Consequently, the war severely dented the image and reputation of Nehru, from which he never recovered.

At the heart of the dispute was the unresolved border of 3,488 kilometres in the Aksai Chin area. China has also staked its claim over Arunachal Pradesh, citing it as once being part of Southern Tibet. Subsequently, China has refused to recognise the 1914 Simla accord, where the British administration along with representatives from Tibet and China agreed to settle the borders between India, Tibet and China. The Chinese representative who initiated the draft treaty refused to put the country’s official seal on the paper. China also later issued a statement that since Tibet was not a sovereign state, it did not have the power to conclude treaties.

Despite serious differences over the border dispute, both countries maintained peace while conducting 20 rounds of border talks, which proved to be futile, as no solution could be agreed upon by both parties. Nonetheless, both realised that continuous engagement was key to preventing conflicts.

However, the Doklam incident once again brought to fore the tenuous relationship between the two states. This time, India took a tougher stand and prevented the Chinese from building roads in the disputed territory. China, having believed Indian leaders to be timid, was taken aback by India’s aggressive stance. Unlike the past, China was now dealing with a bolder and more decisive leader in Narendra Modi.

The situation was diffused before it developed into another conflict. Although India itself was not a party to the dispute, China’s attempt to build roads in Doklam would give it a strategic advantage towards India’s North-Eastern states. It was this concern that prompted India to respond to Bhutan’s call and stop the Chinese from building roads. The Chinese media went ballistic and warned India of serious consequences, but India stood its ground and prevented the Chinese incursion in Doklam, until construction activities came to a halt.

Thus, unlike the past, India now seems to be more confident in dealing with an assertive China. While continuing to engage with its neighbour, India has also taken steps to modernise its army. It is also feverishly building roads at the border so that, in the event of an eventuality, it can rush troops through the hilly terrain.

Apart from the border dispute, India is wary of an increasingly assertive China. The Chinese have been increasing their influence in India’s backyard by building roads and other infrastructural projects in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. Recently, China has also reached out to the Maldives, which is an ally of India. Indian efforts to dissuade Maldives from allowing their territory to being used by China have proven to be ineffectual, and it views these developments as an attempt by China to encircle India.

India has also not taken kindly to China’s repeated attempts to block its membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). This, along with China’s investment and support for Pakistan, is viewed by India as an attempt to prevent it from becoming a global power.

Consequently, despite India refusing to join any axis that could be construed as an attempt to antagonise China in the past, it recently departed from its earlier position by joining the quadrilateral group consisting of the US, Japan, Australia and India. It also recently participated in the first Quad meeting held on the side-lines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Manila. India’s decision is, thus, seen as the post-Doklam effect where it no longer trusts its neighbour.

As China is wary of this strategic alliance between the US and India, it’s showing a willingness to improve relations. It has also hinted it is open to reconsidering India’s membership in the NSG.

It is in this context that Modi’s visit to China becomes extremely significant, especially in view of the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. China has also agreed to address all contentious issues, including the unfavourable trade between the two countries. The meeting with Xi Jinping is being held at Modi’s request, as he does not want another Doklam incident to dampen his efforts to win the next general elections in 2019.

On the other hand, while Modi does not expect any radical change in China’s India policy, he is also aware of the changing geopolitical realities in the region, where China is not only emerging as a power in the subcontinent, but also in the South China Sea dispute. India is also cautious when it comes to US support. In the event of another standoff with China, it is unlikely the US will come to India’s rescue. Thus, Modi is aware the only way to maintain peace at the border is by engaging with China.

Modi enjoys a good chemistry with Jinping, as can be seen by the warm welcome extended to him. Even the Chinese media has raised hopes over their meeting, as they feel the visit would become a cornerstone of providing a long-term relationship between the two countries.

In sum, the China-watchers know that when it comes to securing its business interests, China is not known to yield any concession. However, China is also wary of a rising India and does not want to drive it further towards the US. It is for this reason that China is making a serious effort to court Modi in an effort to promote mutual trust and reciprocity between the two countries.

As both India and China are on the cusp of becoming two of the three largest economies of the world, any future conflict will have the potential to derail their economies. It would be in their best interest to resolve all differences in a spirit of understanding and accommodation. Although not much is expected from the Xi-Modi meeting, the significance lies in the meeting alone, for such meetings will diffuse the tension between the two countries, as we saw during the Doklam conflict. For now, one hopes the leadership of both China and India will continue to engage and address all contentious issues to ensure peace and stability in the region.

Cheers Image
Last edited by Peregrine on 10 May 2018 14:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kit » 10 May 2018 02:59

Maybe the Modi Xi summit was just "get to know each other" part 2 ! .. Too many people reading too many things :mrgreen:

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 10 May 2018 12:31

Need help decoding this.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... t-military
China and Japan agree to set up hotline to prevent military clashes
China and Japan vowed to reset bilateral ties and agreed to set up a hotline to prevent military clashes at sea and in the air, as well as cooperate on infrastructure projects during top-level talks on Wednesday.

Per some reports this is *almost* exactly the *understanding* reached between Modi/India and Xi/China at Wuhan. However there is one difference between the the meetings. Modi/India met Xi/China in China where as here Li/China met Abe/Japan in Japan.

Per some, by traveling to China Modi had assumed the GUBO position. For the same outcome and by the same logic, Li traveling to Japan to reach a near similar *understanding* should be counted as China assuming GUBO position. What is goose for the chutney is goose for the sauce .. no.

OTOH, India is a weaker power compared to China but China is a greater power compared to Japan. Now by the previous discussed logic, a stronger power traveling to a weaker power to assume GUBO position looks doubly shameful.

But Xi/Li/China are very careful about image/face wouldn't assume GUBO position publicly. What gives then? What do you folks think?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 10 May 2018 13:03

Peregrine wrote:The reality check that brought Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping together

Then Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, even went to the extent of supporting China’s membership of the United Nations Security Council at India’s expense, since it is believed to have been offered a permanent seat as well by the US and the Soviet Union.


The biggest traitor and the biggest idiot of Independent India made PM for 17 years by British dalal Gandhi. Aak thoo. What a cursed civilization we are to deserve such traitors.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Vasu » 10 May 2018 14:25

China’s ZTE Ceases Major Operations After U.S. Trade Ban

ZTE Corp. has suspended all major activities after the U.S. crippled its ability to buy crucial American technology, signaling the potential collapse of one of the world’s largest makers of phones and networking gear.

China’s No. 2 telecom equipment maker said it remains intent on resolving a seven-year blockade Washington imposed as punishment for violating the terms of a 2017 sanctions settlement, then lying about it. That however cut off access to the components it needs to build most of its products, from Qualcomm Inc.’s semiconductors to optical chips from Lumentum Holdings Inc.

It essentially ran out of inventory in the month since the ban’s imposition and had no way to replenish it. As of Thursday, its website and flagship smartphone store on Alibaba’s Tmall online marketplace had suspended sales.

ZTE’s best hope may be for intervention from Beijing -- but that’s a long shot given rising tensions between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on $150 billion of Chinese imports for alleged violations of intellectual property rights, while Beijing has vowed to retaliate on everything from American soybeans to planes.

ZTE’s larger rival, Huawei, also faces heightened U.S. opposition. The justice department is said to be investigating its own compliance with American sanctions banning sales to Iran. The Pentagon has banned ZTE and Huawei phones for sale, and the Federal Communications Commission voted in April to ban federal funds from being used to buy gear from companies deemed a national security risk.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Peregrine » 10 May 2018 14:26

pankajs Ji :

Here is "working" Version.

The China Dashboard: Tracking China's Economic Reform Program

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwsXzUdPvbM



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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Peregrine » 10 May 2018 15:10

X Posted on the Terroristani Thread

China gives Pakistan two ships for security of CPEC sea route

NEW DELHI: China yesterday handed over two maritime patrol vessels to the Pakistan Navy for joint security along the sea route of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Dawn reported.

Yesterday, the Chinese vessels were received by the Commander of the Pakistan Navy Vice-Admiral Arifullah Hussaini. The ships are called PMSS Hingol and PMSS Basol after two rivers in the region.

"The ships have become part of the Pakistan Navy from today and the (Pakistan) navy would become stronger with the induction of these maritime vessels," Hussaini was quoted as saying by the Dawn. He added that the Pakistan-China friendship was becoming stronger and deeper than the ocean, day by day.

China is expected to provide two more ships "Dasht" and "Zhob" to the Pakistan navy. It is already working on them and they are expected to be completed soon.

Pakistan has already raised a new division of the army to ensure security along the CPEC route and in and around the Gwadar port. Security of Gwadar city has been handed over to the army's new division created during the tenure of former chief of army staff retired Gen Raheel Sharif.

The CPEC is an economic corridor comprising a collection of projects currently under construction at a cost of $54 billion. CPEC aims to facilitate trade along an overland route that connects Kashgar and Gwadar, through the construction of a network of highways, railways, optical fibre and pipelines.

"The economic corridor will be a game-changer for Pakistan and China, and the entire region would benefit from it," the Pak navy official said. "The CPEC will open new vistas of speedy development in Balochistan and create thousands of jobs for the local youth," he said.

In 2014, China took over management of Pakistan's Gwadar port, en route to key Hormuz Straits oil shipping lanes. The move had raised concerns in India about its fellow Asian giant's growing strategic clout.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 10 May 2018 18:51

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... an-face-us
China moves to strengthen financial ties to Japan in face of US trade war threat
The two countries have been working to improve relations despite their ongoing territorial disputes and historic disagreements.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who is visiting Japan, announced three measures to boost links between the two economies: allowing Japanese investors to buy up to 200 billion yuan (US$31.4 billion) worth of securities in Chinese onshore markets, resuming talks over a halted bilateral currency swap deal and licensing a bank in Tokyo as a yuan clearing bank.

Li told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that relations between the two countries are “at a crucial stage”, adding that the two neighbours should be partners rather than foes.

With China asking for partnership with Japan, Is this also GUBO position by China or what?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby GopiD » 10 May 2018 21:55

Dear Rakshaks,

I have some random thoughts on what could really be happening between India and China and what could be the reasons for the sudden and "informal Wuhan Summit"

China, even with its middle kingdom ego, at long last has come to an understanding that it has painted itself in a corner with its recent/nonrecent moves in the south china sea, Doklam, island disputes with Japan, WTO manipulations, string of pearls. It has realised that it has antagonised some important swing powers like India and that has pushed us more towards a US-centric world narrative. The talk of Quad, improving India-US relationships, India's stand on Doklam, our strong stand of noncooperation on OBOR, signs of Japanese awakening and China's new emperor confirmation for Xi have all made this realisation possible. China knows that its immediate challengers are India and Japan and it somehow thinks that time is still not ripe for the middle kingdom to fully bloom; So, China has decided buy some more time, say a tactical long pause for probably a decade. With Modi at the helm in India, who would do anything for his country and its people to prosper, they have concluded that now is the time for that tactical pause with India. With this in mind, we could hazard a guess that the heart-to-heart talks and Wuhan summit was Xi's idea to charm Modi and subdue India for foreseeable future. This could be construed as short-term pragmatism of Xi, but with its long-term sinister core.

Now the real question is, Why is India playing along with China in this zero-sum game where China gets too big to handle in a decade or so? Well, the guess is, Indian establishment lead by Modi has realised that we too need this tactical pause because it's just not china that is going to grow, we are going to grow faster. The idea could be that we would be on a stronger wicket in a decade from now than we are currently. Only time would tell who is right.

Also, there's is a third player in this game, i.e. US. US has been trying to scare us with the 7-foot chinaman story for a while now, especially with all the 7-foot chinaman stories coming out of our ever-so-trustable media and from a few dedicated "Strategic experts on China" (I watch a few of them on twitter who don't forget to scare us everyday of where the Chinese boogieman is hiding, in the closet, behind the door, under the couch and could pounce on us anytime.) In a way, it has helped us to see the bigger picture away from our earlier Pakistan-centric thought process. The crude analogy is that India is currently a well respected and strong guy in the room of Three and the other two guys are trying to win our companionship until they can knock the other guy down (only up until then. After that, everything would be back to normal, to square one that is).

As for India's choices and actions, reading the tea leaves suggest that our PM has decided to play the game by playing both of them for India's interests and take what he can without giving much. The same game that China has played so well with US and Russia for so long and which has made China what it is today. Modi is a seasoned politician and a brave leader. Let's hope and believe that his gamble paysoff; The game is on and we should be glad that we have one of our best to lead us unlike the previous chella we had for a decade. JMT.
Last edited by GopiD on 10 May 2018 22:44, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ShauryaT » 10 May 2018 22:27

Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the Terroristani Thread

China gives Pakistan two ships for security of CPEC sea route
As expected, China will use "local" forces to protect her interests and provide these vassal states with the necessary wherewithal military, economic and political to create long-term alliances across the rim states of the SCS and IOR. Classic great power game, exactly as expected.

Fully expect China to capitalize on the most recent event with US-Iran. PRC is already vested heavily in Iran and geo-politically the Shia arc is where PRC will invest into along with Russia.

While we have vacillated and sat on the pipeline for over a decade and "balance" between Shia and trying to get closer to Sunnis, in an attempt to be nice to all, folks who can play the game of power instead of kowtow will decide the future of the IOR.

We were one of the few nations to openly not support the OBOR forum. We are one of the few nations that have not endorsed the One China principle, since about 2007. While these diplomatic and "in principle" stands are great, without backed by real power plays and steps they amount to a naught and our bluff called!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 10 May 2018 22:29

btw indian babus of all stripes get sent to harvaad jfk school of public administration for year long residential courses sponsored by our tax money.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ShauryaT » 10 May 2018 22:54

Singha wrote:btw indian babus of all stripes get sent to harvaad jfk school of public administration for year long residential courses sponsored by our tax money.
For crying sake, why not send them to someone in India who teaches them some Kautilya Niti or any of our shastras and then and only then go to Harvard and teach them about how real Indians think about diplomacy and its ends, goals, and means. The problem is they have only learned Gandhi without a critical lens on Gandhi's faulty experiments in the public sphere and its fabulous failures and then to make it worse combine it with Nehruvian ideas of foreign policy under a colonial constitutional edifice. The result is a muddled mess of not knowing where does one stand and very very faulty assumptions of the relationship of power to its means and ends.

Very, very few get out of the above paradigm. The few who do, such as the venerable K. Subramanyam end up leaving the place. Tracking through his and his son's evolution in the MEA provides a very good picture of where the MEA stands and how they go about their processes. Having said that it is the most underinvested department in GoI to represent India's interests.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Katare » 10 May 2018 23:10

Chandragupta wrote:
Peregrine wrote:The reality check that brought Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping together

Then Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, even went to the extent of supporting China’s membership of the United Nations Security Council at India’s expense, since it is believed to have been offered a permanent seat as well by the US and the Soviet Union.


The biggest traitor and the biggest idiot of Independent India made PM for 17 years by British dalal Gandhi. Aak thoo. What a cursed civilization we are to deserve such traitors.


What an uninformed, rude and OT post. Go to bharatganrajya to post your partisan political views, not at BRF.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Chandragupta » 10 May 2018 23:10

Re: GopiD

At the rate Chinese are building military infra and capabilities, I doubt the gap will close in another 10 years, it is more likely going to increase. That is, unless the Modi government wakes up from the slumber / Nehru syndrome and takes defense seriously and allocates >3% GDP to it.

Katare wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:
The biggest traitor and the biggest idiot of Independent India made PM for 17 years by British dalal Gandhi. Aak thoo. What a cursed civilization we are to deserve such traitors.


What an uninformed, rude and OT post. Go to bharatganrajya to post your partisan political views, not at BRF.


Ok.
Last edited by Chandragupta on 10 May 2018 23:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Katare » 10 May 2018 23:14

nam wrote:
RODERICK MACFARQUHAR, Leroy Williams Research Professor of History and Political Science at Harvard is a leading international authority on Chinese politics. He was born in pre-Partition Punjab and has maintained a life-long interest in India. These two sides of his intellectual personality — appreciation of India and scholarly depth on China — put him in a unique position to interpret President Xi Jinping’s Wuhan summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He spoke at length to ASHUTOSH VARSHNEY, director, Center for Contemporary South Asia, Brown University, and contributing editor for The Indian Express, in his office at Harvard. Excerpts:

There are several puzzling aspects to the Wuhan Summit. Even if one believes, as is being argued in some circles, that India asked for an informal summit, why would China agree to have one?

I think Xi Jinping regards India as a potential ally of the US and Japan against China. India by itself is not a serious problem. The border is in control of the Chinese if they wish to exercise it, simply because they are on higher slopes and have more troops there.


If the self appointed expert thinks, this is the case, then reading the remaining part of the article is waste of time.


Are you saying that the bolded part is incorrect and China does not have upper hand on the border?

I think it is well known that India is at huge disadvantage so it is trying to catch up with raising a new corp, ITBP battalians, building link roads/rails and activating old ALDs.
Last edited by Katare on 10 May 2018 23:17, edited 1 time in total.


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