Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby anupmisra » 08 Jun 2018 22:01

Prem wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/stop-work-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-says-india-after-being-urged-to-back-one-china/articleshow/64500030.cms?utm_source=APPusers&utm_medium=twittershare&utm_campaign=socialsharebutton
Stop work in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, says India after being urged to back 'One China'


NEW DELHI: China has urged India to support the “One-China policy”


In return, will china support a "One India" policy?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby anupmisra » 08 Jun 2018 22:04

Taiwan conducting war games simulating repelling Chinese attack amid heighted tensions

Relations between Taipei and Beijing have deteriorated since President Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016, as her government refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan is part of "one China".
Live-fire drills began Monday with troops simulating surprise air and coastal assaults to reflect increased military threats from China
Tsai watched Thursday's session of the ongoing "Han Kuang" (Han Glory) exercise involving 4,100 soldiers, attack helicopters and fighter jets from an air base in Taichung.
Thursday's scenario simulated the enemy bombing of an airfield and a paratrooper attack, with air and ground troops deployed to take back the base.
"I have seen our troops' capabilities and I have faith that our troops can achieve the goal of 'solid defence and multiple deterrence'," Tsai said.
China held its own live-fire drills in April in the Taiwan Strait - the narrow waterway separating the Chinese mainland from Taiwan - following weeks of air and naval manoeuvres in the area.


Han vs. Han. May the real Han win.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-condu ... 41132.html

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 09 Jun 2018 00:17

chola wrote:Why it is important for us to fight Cheen before Unkil does

When the US does go to war with Cheen it will end with the annihilation of the PLA and a regime change and we will gain nothing from it. Resources from the US and all its allies will go into rebuilding a democratic China in its image, think a giant sized Japan, and it will starve resources for every other developing nation including India.

We will rue the day we missed the opportunity to beat up on Cheen first because a democratic Cheen built up by a victorious America won’t change the civilizational competition it has with Bharat but it will leave then wealthier and stronger with the rest of the Far East and the West backing them.

Even if India had beaten China on Doklam it wouldn't have stopped the above sequence from playing out.

Lets see ...
1. India rubs Chinese nose in the Mud at Doklam. Animosity between China and India peaks. No long-term gain/loss for either party except a tiny short-term loss of face for China.
2. Rest if your scenario listed above follows i.e. US goes to war with China, annihilate PLA, regime change, yada yada. US and its allies pour resources into rebuilding a democratic China in its image, in the process starving resources for every other developing nation including India.

India still gains nothing just as you stated in your analysis. The civilizational competition with Bharat is still alive but with wealthier and stronger China having the backing of rest of Far East and West.

End result of teaching China a lesson on Doklam in the long run still the same except for a greater Animosity between the two in the initial years.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 09 Jun 2018 00:48

pankajs wrote:
chola wrote:Why it is important for us to fight Cheen before Unkil does

When the US does go to war with Cheen it will end with the annihilation of the PLA and a regime change and we will gain nothing from it. Resources from the US and all its allies will go into rebuilding a democratic China in its image, think a giant sized Japan, and it will starve resources for every other developing nation including India.

We will rue the day we missed the opportunity to beat up on Cheen first because a democratic Cheen built up by a victorious America won’t change the civilizational competition it has with Bharat but it will leave then wealthier and stronger with the rest of the Far East and the West backing them.

Even if India had beaten China on Doklam it wouldn't have stopped the above sequence from playing out.

Lets see ...
1. India rubs Chinese nose in the Mud at Doklam. Animosity between China and India peaks. No long-term gain/loss for either party except a tiny short-term loss of face for China.
2. Rest if your scenario listed above follows i.e. US goes to war with China, annihilate PLA, regime change, yada yada. US and its allies pour resources into rebuilding a democratic China in its image, in the process starving resources for every other developing nation including India.

India still gains nothing just as you stated in your analysis. The civilizational competition with Bharat is still alive but with wealthier and stronger China having the backing of rest of Far East and West.

End result of teaching China a lesson on Doklam in the long run still the same except for a greater Animosity between the two in the initial years.


No. A victory by India over Cheen forestalls an Amreeki-Chini war (and subsequent regime change) because an Indian victory would remove Cheen as a peer competitor to the US. It would change the status quo in Asia and the world.

The preponderance of forces in our favor means only one outcome in a Himalayan war. We win.

We have that advantage because most of the Chini military is facing the Unkil and its allies on the chinese eastern seaboard.

Thus even a comprehensive Indian victory would not threaten the existence of the PLA and the CCP regime. They can take that hit and live with provided that we don’t try “liberate” all of Tibet.

This is the best scenario. A heavily weakened China that hangs on with the CCP in power which will act as weight to their development.

And India now the unquestioned military power of Asia proven through war.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kit » 09 Jun 2018 15:59

War is never a solution to anything and those esp with your neighbours., its a problem looking for one . The idea of power is to ensure security and prosperity for a nation and its citizens.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 09 Jun 2018 16:51

kit wrote:War is never a solution to anything and those esp with your neighbours., its a problem looking for one . The idea of power is to ensure security and prosperity for a nation and its citizens.


I agree but Cheen was asking for a fight over Doklam and we should have obliged when we had 20-to-1 advantages in manpower and a corresponding advantage in aircraft.

The truth we will not overtake Cheen in our lifetime without a nice well placed war. Economically, the gap expands every year even though we have a faster growth rate (most of the time.)

In 2017, we grew 6.7% on a $2.5T base. We added $167B to our economy. Even if Cheen grew at an imaginary low rate, say 4% on a $14T economy, they would have added $560B. (But in actuality, in 2017 Cheen grew at 6.9% and added nearly a $1T.)

This will go on for decades until our base has caught up.

This economic gap is manifesting in the military as well. The gaps in destroyers, frigates and now carriers between us and them are opening up at ferocious speed year after year because they simply add far more wealth to their bottom line.

Then you top this off with Cheen’s strategy which is to flood disputed areas during peacetime with vessels, equipment and infrastructure and we have a quandary.

Their strategy of barely trained crews and barely tested equipment in large volume is predicated on peace time salami slicing. You counter this strategy by making them actually fight.

I believe in peace. I’m businessman. Business and trade thrive in peace and die in war. But I’m also a Rakshak and I want to see India number one in Asia in my lifetime. Just letting the economy catch up will not happen in my lifetime. I need a short glorious war with low risk.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 09 Jun 2018 20:34

chola wrote:No. A victory by India over Cheen forestalls an Amreeki-Chini war (and subsequent regime change) because an Indian victory would remove Cheen as a peer competitor to the US. It would change the status quo in Asia and the world.

The preponderance of forces in our favor means only one outcome in a Himalayan war. We win.

We have that advantage because most of the Chini military is facing the Unkil and its allies on the chinese eastern seaboard.

Thus even a comprehensive Indian victory would not threaten the existence of the PLA and the CCP regime. They can take that hit and live with provided that we don’t try “liberate” all of Tibet.

This is the best scenario. A heavily weakened China that hangs on with the CCP in power which will act as weight to their development.

And India now the unquestioned military power of Asia proven through war.

An India victory on a border skirmish wouldn't change a damn thing except bring China down a notch. It would still remain on track to over take US economically and pose a strong military challenge in decades to come.

This is primarily because even a full front border war wouldn't dismantle China's economic or military industrial base. China will remain the dominant economic and military power in Asia and thus the challenger to US. Rest all flows from this and we are back to square one per your original logic.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 09 Jun 2018 20:52

After Modi assuming GUBO position at Wuhan it it now the turn of Xi/China to assume GUBO position.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 515299.cms
One of the important outcomes of today's meeting was the Chinese side conveyed that they accepted PM's invitation to President Xi Jinping to have a similar informal summit in India in 2019: Vijay Gokhale, Foreign Secretary

What is goose for the chutni is goose for the sauce.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 09 Jun 2018 22:18

It is the damage factor that will determine Indo- China future relations.The Sino- Viet spat indicates the practicality of the Chins.India is not a non- nuclear Vietnam and would give any misadventure by China everything that we've got and more.The damage to China from India would fatally wound it for other predatory beasts of the jungle to finish it off.China is a bragadaccio entity that bullies its way through other smaller weaker states and treats them like a ruthless loan shark should they avail themselves of China's " generosity".

In China's interests, if they have the intel and put their Middle Kingdom superiority complex in their pockets, they would understand that it is better to have India in the Indo-Pacific tent p*ssing out, rather than outside with Trump and the Yanqui led posse, p*ssing in!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 10 Jun 2018 09:15

pankajs wrote:
chola wrote:No. A victory by India over Cheen forestalls an Amreeki-Chini war (and subsequent regime change) because an Indian victory would remove Cheen as a peer competitor to the US. It would change the status quo in Asia and the world.

The preponderance of forces in our favor means only one outcome in a Himalayan war. We win.

We have that advantage because most of the Chini military is facing the Unkil and its allies on the chinese eastern seaboard.

Thus even a comprehensive Indian victory would not threaten the existence of the PLA and the CCP regime. They can take that hit and live with provided that we don’t try “liberate” all of Tibet.

This is the best scenario. A heavily weakened China that hangs on with the CCP in power which will act as weight to their development.

And India now the unquestioned military power of Asia proven through war.

An India victory on a border skirmish wouldn't change a damn thing except bring China down a notch. It would still remain on track to over take US economically and pose a strong military challenge in decades to come.

This is primarily because even a full front border war wouldn't dismantle China's economic or military industrial base. China will remain the dominant economic and military power in Asia and thus the challenger to US. Rest all flows from this and we are back to square one per your original logic.


I think an Indian victory changes everything. We crush Cheen along the border and poof goes its aura as a peer competitor to the US.

It is like Russia and Japan. Japan has had a much bigger economy than Russia for decades. But it is a neutered nation after its loss in WWII. Cheen becomes a neutered nation like Japan after we beat it. The US will find less cause to look for war against it.

After all, a powerful India with a victory already under its belt will already provide Asia with its needed security against Cheen.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 10 Jun 2018 09:41

chola wrote:I think an Indian victory changes everything. We crush Cheen along the border and poof goes its aura as a peer competitor to the US.
....
After all, a powerful India with a victory already under its belt will already provide Asia with its needed security against Cheen.


Strategy is all about asking, “What if I succeed?”

India as a Asian power will be now be hedged by other powers who will align with a defeated Cheen, Japan and other West/South-East Asian countries.
So what success this?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 10 Jun 2018 10:27

chola wrote:
pankajs wrote:An India victory on a border skirmish wouldn't change a damn thing except bring China down a notch. It would still remain on track to over take US economically and pose a strong military challenge in decades to come.

This is primarily because even a full front border war wouldn't dismantle China's economic or military industrial base. China will remain the dominant economic and military power in Asia and thus the challenger to US. Rest all flows from this and we are back to square one per your original logic.


I think an Indian victory changes everything. We crush Cheen along the border and poof goes its aura as a peer competitor to the US.

It is like Russia and Japan. Japan has had a much bigger economy than Russia for decades. But it is a neutered nation after its loss in WWII. Cheen becomes a neutered nation like Japan after we beat it. The US will find less cause to look for war against it.

After all, a powerful India with a victory already under its belt will already provide Asia with its needed security against Cheen.

China as a peer competitors to the US flows from its VERY VERY REAL economy and military build up both of which will not get knocked out in a localized skirmish full frontal *border* war between India and China.

This comparison with Japan is flawed at many levels. For one thing, Japan was totally destroyed in WWII, it just did not suffer a loss of face or aura on a border skirmish. For another, Japan became/was forced to become a pacifist power after WWII. Wrong reading of history leads to wrong conclusions.

BUT your Japan reference does provide us an incredible opportunity to ask some questions.
1. Will a localized skirmish full frontal *border* war destroy China i.e. its economic and military infra, as opposed to destroy it *aura*?
2. Is India willing to do a Japan to China? More importantly does it have the capacity to do a Japan to China?
3. Will a skirmish war make China, with it economic and military infra intact, a pacifist like Japan? Will it allow India to *impose* a pacifist constitution on China?

In my book, the answer to all the above is NO. It need not be stated but still folks can ask themselves the above question and reach their own conclusion.

On the last line ".. a powerful India .. provide Asia with its needed security against Cheen"
1. A border victory will not suddenly make India more powerful than China, especially a China that still has all its economic and military infra intact, especially in South China sea.
2. Will a victorious India be able to help Vietnam win a military victory at Paracel and Spratly islands? Especially against a China that has economic and military infra intact.
3. Will such a victorious India be able to help Mongolia defend against China?

It is one thing to be confident of repulsing China at our borders and quite another to start talking of being East Asia security provider against China. Overconfidence is as bad as lack of confidence/abject fear of China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jun 2018 15:38

'China begins sharing data on Brahmaputra, Sutlej rivers' PTI
After a year's gap, China has resumed sharing hydrological data on the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers with India, an official of the water resources ministry said.

For the Brahmaputra river, data was shared by China from May 15, while it started sharing data for the Sutlej from June 1.

The move comes after the two sides held talks over the issue in March.

Data will be shared twice daily until October.

Last year, China stopped the exercise citing that the hydrological gathering sites were washed away due to floods. It also coincided with the 73-day Doklam stand-off that took place during the peak monsoon period.

The sharing of hydrological data also coincides with the two sides agreeing to resume the annual exercise between their armies. The exercise did not take place last due to the Doklam stand-off.

The Brahmaputra originates from Tibet and flows into Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and later drains into the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh.

"Sharing hydrological data is very important for generating information on floods for the northeastern states," the official said.

Beijing has started providing data from three hydrological stations — Nugesha, Yangcun and Nuxia, lying on the mainstream of the Brahmaputra, also known as Yarlung Zangbo in China — and from the station at Tsada for the Sutlej, known as Langqen Zangbo, the official said.

India also pays an annual amount of Rs 1 crore to China for providing data on these two important rivers, the official added.

Interestingly, after the bilateral talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, an agreement was signed between India and China to share hydrological data for Brahmaputra. {There already was an agreemen; may be it was deepened and/or renewed}

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 10 Jun 2018 17:25

Chola,
Soko, japan aren't huge multi-group countries. China and India are. Per capita income came about by massive industrialisation plus massive american aid plus security underwriting in the form of 7th fleet against the Soviets all through the cold war and now against the Chinese. Neither China nor we have ever had that. Given the massive under industrialisation of western China, if they homogenise that region in another ten years, akong with their massive funding into tech+r&d that post capital figure will only go up unless the political system undergoes changes.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jun 2018 19:29

SCO: India refuses to endorse China's BRI - PTI
QINGDAO: India was the only country in the eight-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on Sunday which refused to endorse China's ambitious Belt and Road initiative for which Beijing has signed pacts with nearly 80 countries and international organisations.

A declaration issued at the end of the two-day summit of the SCO said Russia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have "reaffirmed their support for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)" of China.

"The Member States express appreciation for the joint efforts taken towards its implementation, including efforts to coordinate the development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the BRI and call for using the potential of the regional countries, international organisations and multilateral associations to create a broad, open, mutually beneficial and equal partnership in the SCO space," it said.

In his address at the summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an oblique reference to the BRI, said any mega connectivity project must respect sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries and assured India's full support to initiatives which ensure inclusivity.

India has been severely critical of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the pet project of President Xi Jinping, as the $50 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is part of the BRI, passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). India says it cannot accept a project that ignores its core concern on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China had unveiled the BRI in 2013 with an aim to link Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Gulf region, Africa and Europe with a network of land and sea routes.

In his address, in the presence of President Xi, Modi said India's commitment to connectivity projects is reflected in its involvement in International North South Corridor project, development of the Chabahar port and the Ashgabat agreement.

"Connectivity with the neighbouring countries is India's priority. We welcome the connectivity projects which are sustainable and efficient and which respect territorial integrity and sovereignty of the countries," he said.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jun 2018 19:45

River and rice deals put India-China ties on an upswing - PTI
In a significant move, China on Saturday agreed to provide India hydrological data of the Brahmaputra river in flood season, months after Beijing stopped the practice, crucial to predict floods.

The two countries also signed an agreement under which China has agreed to import non-Basmati rice from India which is likely to bridge the ballooning trade deficit to a certain extent.

The two Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were signed after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held detailed discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping on bilateral and global issues, which will add vigour to the India-China friendship after their informal summit in Wuhan.

Mr. Modi arrived in the picturesque coastal city of China’s Shandong province on a two-day visit to attend the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said India had allowed China’s state-owned Bank of China to open its branch in Mumbai.

“There were some discussion on trade and investment related issues. And in that context Xi told Modi that China is looking at enhancing agricultural exports from India including non-Basmati rice and sugar,” Gokhale said.

Last year, China stopped sharing data soon after the 73-day standoff between the Indian and Chinese troops at Doklam over Chinese military’s plans to build a road close to India’s Chicken Neck corridor connecting the north-eastern States.

The first MoU was inked between China’s Ministry of Water Resources and India’s Ministry of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation upon provision of hydrological information of the Brahmaputra river in flood season.

The agreement enables China to provide hydrological data in flood season from May 15 to October 15 every year. It also enables the Chinese side to provide hydrological data if water level exceeds the mutually agreed level during non-flood season. China, an upstream country, shares the scientific study of the movement, distribution and quality of water data for the river.

Originating from Tibet, the Brahmaputra is one of the major rivers in China. From Tibet, it flows down to India and later enters Bangladesh where it joins the Ganga.

The second MoU was signed between China’s General Administration of Customs and India’s Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare on Phytosanitary requirements for exporting rice from India to China, one of the world’s biggest rice markets.

The 2006 Protocol on Phytosanitary Requirements for Exporting Rice from India to China has been amended to include the export of non-Basmati varieties of rice from India. At present, India can only export Basmati rice to China.

Sources said the pact on non-Basmati rice may help in addressing India’s concerns over widening trade deficit which has been in China’s favour. {China will demand an arm and a leg for this small concession}

China has been promising to address the issue of trade deficit with India which has been seeking a greater market access for its goods and services in China.

Trade deficit with China stood at $ 36.73 billion during April-October this fiscal. India’s trade deficit with China has marginally dipped to $51 billion in 2016-17 from $52.69 billion in the previous fiscal.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Rahulsidhu » 10 Jun 2018 20:02

The two countries also signed an agreement under which China has agreed to import non-Basmati rice from India which is likely to bridge the ballooning trade deficit to a certain extent.

....

Trade deficit with China stood at $ 36.73 billion during April-October this fiscal. India’s trade deficit with China has marginally dipped to $51 billion in 2016-17 from $52.69 billion in the previous fiscal.


China has come under the spotlight for its unfair trade practices and the massive C/A surpluses it runs with the world. It is putting up a brave face while trying to pass off increases in agriculture and energy imports (low tech, low value) as a step towards compromise. I hope Indian negotiators see through this move despite propaganda articles like the one above.

Indian-China trade deficit is over $ 50 b a year and growing. India's total rice exports are ~ $ 5 b. Even if these lower tariffs lead to an extra $500mln in exports, it would not move the needle. More importantly, increased exports of water hungry food crops in exchange for high-tech electronics imports is not a deal that could ever be in our favour, whatever be the volumes.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kiranA » 10 Jun 2018 20:55

Regarding non-basmati rice exports folks should note that GoI ban on such exports was lifted only in 2009 and restrictions remain to this date. GoI followed a policy of export promotion and market making for basmati rice fattening wallets of farmers in Punjab and north and an outright ban on other rice exports effecting farmers in south and east. Ofcourse GoI wanted to protect prices of rice - a staple in south and east - and a politically sensitive price point. But instead of subsidizing it from its own coffers it chose to make the farmers pay by closing export opportunities for them.

The point is some of these trade issues India faces up now are of its own making.

Having said that it is really good news if India can export rice to china - the worlds largest market for rice.

And I also agree with previous posters that India shouldnt really be in business of agri exports - we are a land stressed and water stressed country - who should be importing crops but having abundant population skill them up and exporting machinery. But thats a long way off.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 11 Jun 2018 04:54

Quad will sail together across Pacific in largest military drill - Manu Pubby, Economic Times
GUAM: Australia may have been missing from this year’s edition of the Malabar naval exercise but it will join India, Japan and the US in a ‘group sail’ to the world’s largest wargames later this month.

Warships of the four nations will traverse the Pacific for over a week to arrive for the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise at Hawaii. While warships of the four nations–being increasingly termed as the Quadrilateral in the Indo Pacific – will sail together, China has been disinvited from this year’s edition of RIMPAC.

Australia, which had taken part in the Malabar series of exercises in 2007 — invoking a strong reaction from Beijing about a possible military containment arrangement—has been keen to come back to the wargames. India, however, is being cautious given the attempts to normalise relations with China following the tense standoff at Dokalam last year.

The quadrilateral sail for RIMPAC will consist of the INS Sahyadri, the Japanese helicopter destroyer Ize, US pacific fleet vessels, besides the Australian component. While no exercises are planned on the way, a joint sail helps in familiarisation of naval drills.

“One of our ships, INS Sahyadri will continue from Malabar to participate at RIMPAC. A group sail is planned from June 17 onwards and they will get together and sail for Hawaii. Our two remaining ships will go back to Vizag,” Rear Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi, the Eastern Fleet Commander who is leading the Indian delegation to Malabar, told ET.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Shanmukh » 13 Jun 2018 03:13

Thanks, SS-saar, for the reply about Thailand. It is very interesting that Thailand is also playing a balancing game, though.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Jun 2018 08:55

Trump’s vow to end war drills with Seoul stuns region - AP
President Donald Trump rocked East Asia with the stunning announcement on Tuesday that he was halting annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and wants to remove the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in the South as a deterrent against North Korea.

Mr. Trump’s surprise, almost offhand comments, made during a news conference after his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, seemingly upended decades of the U.S. defence posture on the Korean Peninsula.
The remarks contradicted countless previous declarations by U.S. political and military officials over the years that the drills are routine, defensive and absolutely critical.

A drain of money

Mr. Trump has now essentially adopted the standard North Korean line, calling the military exercises a “provocative” drain of money and announcing they would stop while he continues talks with Mr. Kim. It also seemed to leave officials completely off guard in South Korea, where the presence of U.S. troops has long been described as necessary to maintaining peace.

Seoul’s Presidential Office said it was trying to parse Mr. Trump’s comments.
“At this current point, there is a need to discern the exact meaning and intent of President Trump’s comments,” Seoul’s Defence Ministry said, adding that there have been no discussions yet with Washington on modifying drills set for August.

U.S. forces in South Korea said it has “received no updated guidance on the execution or cessation of training exercises” and will continue to coordinate with South Korean partners and maintain the current posture until it receives an updated guidance from the Department of Defense or the Indo-Pacific Command.

North Korea regularly calls the military exercises provocative preparations for a northward invasion, and many of the scariest standoffs in recent years on the Korean Peninsula have happened when the drills were being staged. North Korea also insists that the U.S. troop presence in the South, as well as its nuclear “umbrella” over allies Seoul and Tokyo, are part of America’s “hostile” policy toward the North.

“I want to bring our soldiers back home,” Mr. Trump said, although he added that it’s “not part of the equation right now.” Then he said: “We will be stopping the war games, which will save us a tremendous amount of money unless and until we see the future negotiation is not going along like it should. But we’ll be saving a tremendous amount of money. Plus, I think it’s very provocative.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 14 Jun 2018 10:56

India, China in talks to form bloc against Opec - Sanjay Dutta, ToI
India and China, which together accounted for almost 17% of world oil consumption last year, are working on combining their shopping carts with a view to challenging Opec’s capability to play havoc with crude prices and seek better bargains from the cartel of oil exporting countries, especially its West Asian members.

The two sides kicked off formal talks in Beijing on Monday for forming an oil buyers’ club. The development is likely to weigh on Opec energy ministers, who are expected to discuss a plan to end the production cut deal later this month.

The talks come within less than two months of oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan proposing an alliance between Indian and Chinese staterun oil companies for a greater say in the market.

Sources told TOI that the two countries were looking at working together rather than competing. “The timing is right. The boom in US oil and gas production gives us greater leverage against Opec,” an official said.

Move comes as oil market shifts to Asia

“As consumers, we have certain mutual interests. We agreed to promote (business-to-business) cooperation… and we are hopeful that in future buyers will be able to dictate prices,” oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan said after meeting China National Petroleum Corporation chairman Wang Yilin and Li Fanrong, deputy administrator of China’s National Energy Administration, on the sidelines of the 16th International Energy Forum ministerial round in April.

Pradhan, however, did acknowledge there would be “fair competition in some areas as it happens in business”, an oblique reference to acquisition of overseas oil and gas fields.

The ongoing India-China talks are a throwback to 2005, when the then Indian oil minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar, proposed forging a common front on oil to China’s National Development and Reforms Commission vice-chairman Zhang Xiaoqing on the sidelines of the Asian Round Table – a buyer-seller meet This time, the move comes as the global oil market’s centre of gravity shifts to Asia.

International Energy Agency sees India and China fuelling half of global demand growth in the next five years, with India driving incremental demand growth through the next two decades.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 16 Jun 2018 19:30

Thailand spearheads regional fund to cut reliance on big Asian economies - Reuters
Thailand is spearheading a new Southeast Asian fund for infrastructure and development projects, Thai prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha told a summit in Bangkok on Saturday, a bid to counter reliance on Asian giants, such as China.

The fund, which Thailand will jointly manage with four countries of the region - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam - is expected to begin operations in 2019.

"Thailand wants to emphasise the importance of a sustainable source of funding," Prayuth told a summit of the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS).

One of its aims is to lessen reliance on funding from China and other regional giants, said Arthayud Srisamoot, an official of the foreign ministry.

"There is a sense among these countries to try to engage more within this region before going out to China, to South Korea, Japan and India."

Thailand would contribute a "substantial amount of money" to start the fund, he added.


Prayuth gave no details of the project's size or budget but the Thai government said officials of all five countries would meet this year to flesh out details.

The fund will raise money through the sale of stocks and bonds by issuing debt for projects, Arthayud said, adding that it would welcome financial contributions from countries and institutions beyond Southeast Asia.

Previous regional infrastructure projects of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) grouping have made little progress, because of conflicting interests.

China has been investing heavily in infrastructure in Southeast Asia, in line with its Belt and Road initiative, as well as in energy and property, which has spurred concern about the region's growing economic dependence on it.

China has committed to spending nearly $12 billion in loans and grants in Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.

At a regional summit this year in Cambodia, one of the region's top beneficiaries of Chinese investment, government leaders agreed to consider a second batch of Chinese-funded projects, in addition to 132 projects approved in 2016.

Chinese-backed infrastructure projects in the region include a $5.5-billion railway scheme to link Thailand's eastern seaboard with southern China, via land-locked Laos.


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 18 Jun 2018 08:22

Malaysia gives a big jolt to China's One Belt, One Road projects - AFP
Malaysia was once a loyal partner in China's globe-spanning infrastructure drive but a new government is now pledging to review Beijing-backed projects, threatening key links in the much-vaunted initiative. Kuala Lumpur's previous regime, led by scandal-mired Najib Razak, had warm ties with China and signed a string of deals for Beijing-funded projects, including a major rail link and a deep-sea port.

But the long-ruling coalition was unexpectedly turfed out of power last month by voters disgusted at allegations of corruption and angered at rising living costs.

Critics say many agreements lacked transparency, fuelling suspicions they were struck in exchange for help in paying off debts from a financial scandal which ultimately helped bring down Najib's regime.

The new government, led by political heavyweight Mahathir Mohamad, has pledged to review Chinese deals seen as dubious, calling into question Malaysia's status as one of Beijing's most cooperative partners in its infrastructure push.

China's ambitious initiative to revive ancient Silk Road trading routes with a global network of ports, roads and railways -- dubbed "One Belt, One Road" -- was launched in 2013 and is the economic crown jewel of President Xi Jinping's presidency.

Malaysia, along with Beijing ally Cambodia, were seen as bright spots in Southeast Asia, with projects in other countries often facing problems, from land acquisition to drawn-out negotiations with governments.

"Malaysia under Najib moved quickly to approve and implement projects," Murray Hiebert, a senior associate from think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told AFP.

Chinese foreign direct investment into Malaysia stood at just 0.8 percent of total net FDI inflows in 2008, but that figure had risen to 14.4 percent by 2016, according to a study from Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

However, Hiebert said it was "widely assumed" that Malaysia was striking quick deals with China in the hope of getting help to cover debts from sovereign wealth fund 1MDB.

Najib and his cronies were accused of stealing huge sums of public money from the investment vehicle in a massive fraud. Public disgust at the allegations -- denied by Najib and 1MDB -- helped topple his government.

Beijing's plans derailed?

Malaysia's first change of government in six decades has left Najib facing a potential jail term -- and appears to have already unsettled Beijing's plans in the country.

New prime minister Mahathir has announced a planned high-speed rail link between Kuala Lumpur and neighbouring Singapore will not go ahead as he seeks to reduce the country's huge national debt.

The project was in its early stages and had not yet received any Chinese funding as part of "One Belt, One Road".

But Chinese companies were favoured to build part of the line, which would have constituted a link in a high-speed route from China's Yunnan province to trading hub Singapore
, along which Chinese goods could have been transported for export.

Work has already started in Malaysia on another line seen as part of that route, and which had received Chinese funding -- the $14-billion East Coast Rail Link, running from close to the Thai border to a port near Kuala Lumpur.

Mahathir has said that agreement is now being renegotiated.

Other Chinese-funded initiatives include a deep-sea port in Malacca, near important shipping routes, and an enormous industrial park.

It is not clear yet which projects will be changed or cancelled but experts believe axing some will be positive.


Alex Holmes, Asia economist for Capital Economics, backed cancelling some initiatives, citing "Malaysia's weak fiscal position and that some of the projects are of dubious economic value".

The Chinese foreign ministry did not respond to request for comment.

But a recent commentary in China's Global Times, a nationalist state-run tabloid, warned Mahathir if he damaged the interests of Chinese companies, they had the right to seek compensation.

"The Chinese government will also take concrete measures to safeguard the interests and rights of Chinese enterprises," it said.

Adding to China's woes, Mahathir has a clear preference for Beijing's rival Japan, and last week went to Tokyo for his first foreign trip since taking office.

During the visit, the 92-year-old signalled ties with Beijing would cool: "We will be friendly with China, but we do not want to be indebted to China."

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 19 Jun 2018 09:00

Chinese envoy for 3-way talks with India, Pakistan - ToI
The Chinese ambassador to India created a stir on Monday by proposing a China-India-Pakistan trilateral grouping, arguing that the India-China bilateral ties cannot stand another Doklam-type incident.

However, Luo Zhaohui's remark was soon dismissed by the Indian foreign ministry as a personal opinion. "We have not received any such suggestion from the Chinese government. Matters related to India-Pakistan relations are purely bilateral in nature and have no scope for involvement of any third country," the ministry said.
This iterates a long standing Indian position on relations with Pakistan.

Addressing a seminar on India-China relations in New Delhi, Luo quoted "some Indian friends" as suggesting trilateral cooperation comprising India, China and Pakistan under the SCO framework.

"Security cooperation is one of the three pillars of the SCO. Some Indian friends suggested that China, India and Pakistan may have some kind of trilateral cooperation under the SCO," Luo said. The Chinese envoy said a trilateral as "a good and constructive idea." He then added "Maybe not now, but in the future, that is the great idea. It will help to resolve bilateral issues and help to maintain peace and tranquillity."

The articulation comes in the background of Chinese suggestions ahead of the recent Shanghai cooperation summit that the presence of both India and Pakistan in the grouping could help reduce regional tensions.

On relations with India, the envoy said, "We cannot stand another Doklam (sic)."
India has maintained that bilateral problems need bilateral solutions. Its unlikely India would agree to bringing a third party into bilateral disputes, certainly not two countries as close as China and Pakistan and Beijing's role in thwarting India at the UN and at the NSG.

"We need to narrow differences through expanding cooperation. However, it does not mean that differences would be ignored. The boundary question between our two countries was left over by history. We need to build on convergence to find a mutual acceptable solution through the Special Representatives Meeting while adopting confidence building measures to maintain the peace and tranquillity along the border," he said.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 19 Jun 2018 09:42

SSridhar wrote:Chinese envoy for 3-way talks with India, Pakistan - ToI
The Chinese ambassador to India created a stir on Monday by proposing a China-India-Pakistan trilateral grouping, arguing that the India-China bilateral ties cannot stand another Doklam-type incident.



One must agree with the Cheen Embarassdor - Since Cheen had to stand down and sit due to Doklam-type incident initiated by India.
He is asking the TFTA to help his case against the SDRE onlee. In this Cheen is only following in the illustrious footsteps of his Unkil!
Thankfull XI is el presidente for life, thus he will not suffer ‘most dangerous place’ in the worlditis that his Unkil’s leaders suffer from every 4yrs.

PS: Indian Foriegn Ministry should have responded with a lowly or retired Pandu asking Cheen to return back Indian territory to prevent any misunderstandings, else a Doklam-type incident may result without any understanding on where TFTA ends and SDRE begins! :P

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 19 Jun 2018 11:25

India, China in talks to form bloc against Opec - Sanjay Dutta, ToI


We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then India will make electric vehicles tax Free and start establishing charging stations in the country everywhere including parking lots to reduce the dependence on oil. We should be doing that nevertheless quietly.

Electric vehicles manufacturers like Nissan should be given no tax on all events manufacturing capabilities and exporting them.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Arima » 19 Jun 2018 12:17

ashish raval wrote:
India, China in talks to form bloc against Opec - Sanjay Dutta, ToI


We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then India will make electric vehicles tax Free and start establishing charging stations in the country everywhere including parking lots to reduce the dependence on oil. We should be doing that nevertheless quietly.

Electric vehicles manufacturers like Nissan should be given no tax on all events manufacturing capabilities and exporting them.


all electric cars or even hybrids should be incentivised. India cannot afford growth with increased pollution.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 19 Jun 2018 13:34

USING UNCERTAINTY AS LEVERAGE: INDIA’S SECURITY COMPETITION WITH CHINA
https://warontherocks.com/2018/06/using ... ith-china/

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 20 Jun 2018 17:06

More than eight in ten (82%) Australians see China as ‘more of an economic partner’ than a ‘military threat’ (up three points since 2017)”.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publicati ... itute-poll

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 20 Jun 2018 21:39

China to boost cooperation with Nepal in infrastructure connectivity: Xi - PTI
China is ready to bolster its ties with landlocked Nepal in infrastructure connectivity, trade and investment under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping on Wednesday assured Nepal's Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli.

China and Nepal signed eight key agreements for developing major infrastructure projects
in the Himalayan nation to further deepen the bilateral ties, Nepal's Foreign Ministry said.

President Xi congratulated Nepal for achieving political stability and outlining economic development priorities and assured China's full support and cooperation in realising Nepal's development goals, the statement said.

China has been investing heavily in Nepal in the last few years to enhance connectivity and infrastructure.

"China stands ready to strengthen cooperation with Nepal in infrastructure connectivity, post-disaster reconstruction, trade and investment under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative," Xi was quoted as saying by state-run Xinhua news agency.

Xi said China was committed to keep intact the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nepal, the Kathmandu Post reported.

During the meeting, Xi expressed gratitude towards Nepal for maintaining the 'One China' policy and not allowing anti-China activities on Nepalese territory, it said.

Oli, who arrived here [Beijing] yesterday on his first official visit to China since his re-election, witnessed the signing of the agreements at the Nepal Embassy.

The agreements were signed between the governments and private companies of Nepal and China to develop hydropower projects, cement industries, and establish highland food parks, the statement said.

An agreement was signed between the Investment Board of Government of Nepal and Huaxin Cement Narayani Pvt Ltd under which the Chinese firm has pledged Nepalese Rs 14.4 billion (USD 130 million) of FDI to generate 3,000 metric tonnes of cement per day, it said.

Another MoU was signed to prepare a detailed feasibility study on Eastern Tarai Irrigation System in the Biring, Kamala and Kankai rivers, it said, adding the two nations agreed on establishing the highland food park for varieties of fruits and vegetables with an investment of over USD 46 million.

The two countries also agreed for the development of 164 MW Nepal Kaligandaki Gorge Hydropower Project which would be developed on BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-Transfer) model.

An agreement for the construction of 40.27 MW Siuri Nyadi Hydropower Plant Project in EPCF (Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Finance) model was also signed at the embassy.

An agreement between Nepal Pashmina Industries Association and One Belt One Road International Trade Platform of CIC Mutual Trade Investment Company was signed for the sale of Nepali pashmina in China, it said, adding the purchase order from China would be between 200,000 to 500,000 pieces every year.

A separate MoU on Framework Agreement for Cooperation in Marsyangdi Cascade Hydropower Project of 600 MW was also signed.

The two sides also agreed for the Construction of 75 MW Trishuli Galchhi Hydropower Project in EPCF Model, the statement said.

During his six-day visit, Oli is scheduled to hold bilateral talks with his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang tomorrow.

During his brief tenure in 2016, Oli widened China-Nepal ties by signing the transit trade treaty with China to reduce the dependence of his landlocked country on India at the height of the Madhesi agitation. He had sought expansion of road links through Tibet besides extension of China's railway to Nepal through the Himalayas.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prem » 20 Jun 2018 23:18

Oli did't get his Billions which he have been dreaming and thought will be showered on him by Xi like on concubine pakistan.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 20 Jun 2018 23:20

Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Burma. Any where the Chinese are investing needs a market. And that market is India. India doesn't buy, it is all down the drain.

So Chinese can invest as much they want. Since we are not buying electricity from Chinese build dams... they can buy themselves.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 21 Jun 2018 03:23

Arima wrote:
ashish raval wrote:
We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then India will make electric vehicles tax Free and start establishing charging stations in the country everywhere including parking lots to reduce the dependence on oil. We should be doing that nevertheless quietly.

Electric vehicles manufacturers like Nissan should be given no tax on all events manufacturing capabilities and exporting them.


all electric cars or even hybrids should be incentivised. India cannot afford growth with increased pollution.

Agreed but mass scale incentives will be an expensive proposition for government. Although they can make no VAT on the product making them cheaper. Battery cars in India are half a decade away at the least.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby disha » 21 Jun 2018 09:32

^^ Hybrids must be dis-incentivized. No rupee should go into hybrids. They are old technology on the way out. Take it from a person who owns hybrid as well as EVs.

Toyota and Honda wanted to dump their Hybrids in India and GOI saw through the game. Good that Hybrid is out.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 21 Jun 2018 15:33

From the latest Vayu issue,
What stood out [in the Gaganshakti 2018 exercise] was the demonstration by the IAF through deep sea missions that military bases alongside alongside Indian maritime boundary are within its striking range of the IAF. Su-30 MKI aircraft took off from bases in Southern India including Thanjavur & Sulur with BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, having a range of 300 Kms and carried out simulated strikes in the Malacca Straits, Nine Degree Channel and other sensitive areas

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 21 Jun 2018 20:08

India’s hedging strategy is bound to fail
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... ound-fail/

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chanakyaa » 21 Jun 2018 20:20

ashish raval wrote:
India, China in talks to form bloc against Opec - Sanjay Dutta, ToI


We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then India will make electric vehicles tax Free and start establishing charging stations in the country everywhere including parking lots to reduce the dependence on oil. We should be doing that nevertheless quietly.

Electric vehicles manufacturers like Nissan should be given no tax on all events manufacturing capabilities and exporting them.

Why stop at $60? Why not $50 or $40? Marginal cost of production for Barbaria and Ruskies is much lower in teens no? Or better yet, pay in Rupees or Yuan (little stretch though). Is the $60 taking into account shale production hurdles?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 22 Jun 2018 03:02

chanakyaa wrote:
ashish raval wrote:
We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then India will make electric vehicles tax Free and start establishing charging stations in the country everywhere including parking lots to reduce the dependence on oil. We should be doing that nevertheless quietly.

Electric vehicles manufacturers like Nissan should be given no tax on all events manufacturing capabilities and exporting them.

Why stop at $60? Why not $50 or $40? Marginal cost of production for Barbaria and Ruskies is much lower in teens no? Or better yet, pay in Rupees or Yuan (little stretch though). Is the $60 taking into account shale production hurdles?



At that price barbarian will have 100 billion deficit per year due to bloated government expenditure and blow away 700 billion of all their reserves if it remains lower than 50 for few year. Coupled with expensive gifts to buy from unlike and keep warfare going in the region. Russia will be same if prices go below 50$ a barrel.
Unlike don't like people paying for oil in their own currency. Look at Libya, Iraq and now Iran. Although we are not that category but people do follow defacto rules of greenback supremacy due to floating nature. Sorry will not comment further as it become offtopic soon.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 22 Jun 2018 14:36

Xi sells Seychelles by India’s seashore as Modi’s foreign policy drowns
https://qz.com/1311066/narendra-modis-f ... n-tatters/


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