pankajs wrote:An India victory on a border skirmish wouldn't change a damn thing except bring China down a notch. It would still remain on track to over take US economically and pose a strong military challenge in decades to come.
This is primarily because even a full front border war wouldn't dismantle China's economic or military industrial base. China will remain the dominant economic and military power in Asia and thus the challenger to US. Rest all flows from this and we are back to square one per your original logic.
I think an Indian victory changes everything. We crush Cheen along the border and poof goes its aura as a peer competitor to the US
It is like Russia and Japan. Japan has had a much bigger economy than Russia for decades. But it is a neutered nation after its loss in WWII. Cheen becomes a neutered nation like Japan after we beat it. The US will find less cause to look for war against it.After all, a powerful India with a victory already under its belt will already provide Asia with its needed security against Cheen
China as a peer competitors to the US flows from its VERY VERY REAL economy and military build up both of which will not get knocked out in a
full frontal *border* war between India and China.
This comparison with Japan is flawed at many levels. For one thing, Japan was totally destroyed in WWII, it just did not suffer a loss of face or aura on a border skirmish. For another, Japan became/was forced to become a pacifist power after WWII. Wrong reading of history leads to wrong conclusions.
BUT your Japan reference does provide us an incredible opportunity to ask some questions.
1. Will a
full frontal *border* war destroy China i.e. its economic and military infra, as opposed to destroy it *aura*?
2. Is India willing to do a Japan to China? More importantly does it have the capacity to do a Japan to China?
3. Will a
war make China, with it economic and military infra intact, a pacifist like Japan? Will it allow India to *impose* a pacifist constitution on China?
In my book, the answer to all the above is NO. It need not be stated but still folks can ask themselves the above question and reach their own conclusion.
On the last line ".. a powerful India .. provide Asia with its needed security against Cheen"
1. A border victory will not suddenly make India more powerful than China, especially a China that still has all its economic and military infra intact, especially in South China sea.
2. Will a victorious India be able to help Vietnam win a military victory at Paracel and Spratly islands? Especially against a China that has economic and military infra intact.
3. Will such a victorious India be able to help Mongolia defend against China?
It is one thing to be confident of repulsing China at our borders and quite another to start talking of being East Asia security provider against China. Overconfidence is as bad as lack of confidence/abject fear of China.