Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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dinesha
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 22 Jun 2018 14:48

X-post
Despite Modi-Xi bonhomie, China moves into Arunachal Pradesh, builds new road and barracks
https://theprint.in/security/south-chin ... hal/73316/
The Tsari Chu valley in Arunachal Pradesh is another such area.

It is evident from satellite pictures that over the years the Chinese have moved at least 5 km into what should be Indian territory. They may have taken advantage of the remoteness of the area and the absence of Indian forces.

The Chinese PLA presence is now well established here. A new road that can be accessed by jeeps is being constructed, the river-bank is being improved and new construction post-Doklam, some of it underground, has been noticed.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chanakyaa » 22 Jun 2018 21:27

ashish raval wrote:
We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then...

Little off topic for this dhaga but your dream/desire or just wishful thinking may come true. Just may may, because it is a dog and pony show for now.

One Cartel going after other Cartel

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 22 Jun 2018 23:43

dinesha wrote:Xi sells Seychelles by India’s seashore as Modi’s foreign policy drowns
https://qz.com/1311066/narendra-modis-f ... n-tatters/

The Author is Girish Shahane, Scroll.in

I have read a few other pieces of this person on Scroll.in. Btw, some of his previous pieces on the scroll site
https://scroll.in/article/882411/india- ... initiative
India stands to gain the most and risks the least by joining China’s One Belt, One Road initiative

https://scroll.in/article/872737/why-th ... an-imports
Why the Indian poultry industry is chicken about American imports

https://scroll.in/article/875183/approp ... tva-critic
Appropriating Ambedkar: Why the BJP is on strong ground in its battle to co-opt the Hindutva critic

He seems to be an expert on everything under the sun. I am very skeptical of such folks but each to his own.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby vijayk » 23 Jun 2018 00:22

print, scroll, wire and carvan are putting out a lot of lies/semi-truths to spread any news to make Modi look weak in India.

At the same time, they applaud and want chinese to destroy India and help Pakistan to destroy India.

If Modi tries any tougher stand, the same trash will be writing in NYT/Wapo how dangerous nationalists want a war with China but internally writing that how we have chickened out. Fortunately or unfortunately, most of Indians can't even correlate and put 2 and 2 together to question them.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Hari Seldon » 23 Jun 2018 09:00

PRC testing eye-lasers (designed to permanently blind enemy troops, and explicitly banned under UN conventions) against US troops, seems like.

Likely to be used against our troops too along the TAR border, I fear.

Laser Attacks Against U.S. Forces Spread to the Pacific (popular mechanics)

Laser attacks against U.S. forces have spread out of Africa into the Pacific. U.S. personnel operating in the East China Sea area have been the victim of blinding laser attacks similar to those that took place earlier this year in Djibouti. The attacks, conducted with nonlethal lasers were reportedly carried out by Chinese nationals.

Earlier this year the Pentagon issued a NOTAM, or “Notice to Airmen” warning U.S. pilots of “unauthorized laser activity” resulting in injury to an unspecified number of U.S. personnel in the skies over Djibouti. The lasers originated on or very near China’s first overseas military base, just 8.3 miles from the American base, and according to U.S. officials, Chinese nationals were involved. The U.S. issued a formal complaint to China, which denied the accusations.

Now the U.S. is reporting similar attacks in the East China Sea, where more than 20 incidents have reportedly taken place. According to Aviation Week & Space Technology, as the attacks are increasing they are also involving more laser frequency bands.

China has been accused of developing and marketing anti-eye lasers, weapons whose use in wartime would constitute a violation of international law. These weapons include the BBQ-905 Laser Dazzler Weapon, the WJG-2002 Laser Gun, the PY132A Blinding Laser Weapon, and the PY131A Blinding Laser Weapon.


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Trikaal » 23 Jun 2018 10:26

Hari Seldon wrote:PRC testing eye-lasers (designed to permanently blind enemy troops, and explicitly banned under UN conventions) against US troops, seems like.

Likely to be used against our troops too along the TAR border, I fear.

Laser Attacks Against U.S. Forces Spread to the Pacific (popular mechanics)

Laser attacks against U.S. forces have spread out of Africa into the Pacific. U.S. personnel operating in the East China Sea area have been the victim of blinding laser attacks similar to those that took place earlier this year in Djibouti. The attacks, conducted with nonlethal lasers were reportedly carried out by Chinese nationals.

Earlier this year the Pentagon issued a NOTAM, or “Notice to Airmen” warning U.S. pilots of “unauthorized laser activity” resulting in injury to an unspecified number of U.S. personnel in the skies over Djibouti. The lasers originated on or very near China’s first overseas military base, just 8.3 miles from the American base, and according to U.S. officials, Chinese nationals were involved. The U.S. issued a formal complaint to China, which denied the accusations.

Now the U.S. is reporting similar attacks in the East China Sea, where more than 20 incidents have reportedly taken place. According to Aviation Week & Space Technology, as the attacks are increasing they are also involving more laser frequency bands.

China has been accused of developing and marketing anti-eye lasers, weapons whose use in wartime would constitute a violation of international law. These weapons include the BBQ-905 Laser Dazzler Weapon, the WJG-2002 Laser Gun, the PY132A Blinding Laser Weapon, and the PY131A Blinding Laser Weapon.


If this is true, it is an act of war. I can't imagine Chinese are stupid enough to do something like this.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 23 Jun 2018 19:08

At the heart of the Silk Road - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu
As the horses stomp their hooves, the flames on stage rise up. This is a spectacle like no other, an opera that celebrates all the differences of the the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.

Xinjiang, formerly known as Sinkiang, is home to 47 ethnic groups, every major religion of the world, and the descendants of four ancient civilisations: Greek, Chinese, Indian and Mesopotamian. Hundreds of artistes bearing Russian, Caucasian, Indian, Central Asian, Tibetan, Han Chinese, and local Uighur features perform together on stage, along with the horses, eagles and even some Bactrian camels, as screens with colourful animations keep shifting.

The opera, called 'Revisiting the Western Regions', recreates the region’s glorious past as a crucial link of the old Silk Route under the Han dynasty (206 BCE-220 CE).

It was through the three branches that go around the Tarim basin that goods were traded with China on the Silk Route, explains our tour guide and interpreter. The branches around the basin gave it the look of an eye, with the forbidding Taklamakan desert at the centre.

Xinjiang means “an old frontier which returned”. The opera is a subtle celebration of China’s Qing dynasty reclaiming control of the western regions in 1884, and of post-Revolution in 1949 when the Communist People’s Republic of China incorporated Xinjiang, with a 90% ethnic Muslim population, into China. Since then, as the Chinese majority Han population has grown from 6% to 41% (2010 Census), Uighur Muslims' has dropped to 45%.

Much of the diversity resplendent on stage at the Changji Opera is not as prominent outside. Thirty kilometres away, in the Xinjiang capital city of Ürümqi, we are taken to a school that is a showpiece, given its grand classrooms, libraries and impressive facilities. One by one, the students stand up to speak about their school, where they spend all but two months of the year. What they say sounds rehearsed and explains the changes in Xinjiang quite vividly.

“My country is my family,” says 12-year-old Kawsar. “My teachers are my parents, and I live here at school where all students are my brothers and sisters.”

Firdaus, 11, says: “I want to say thank you to my government and my country because they allowed me to come here.”

Anya adds: “My parents live in a village and are poor. I think I am lucky to come here to school and it is all thanks to my country that I am here.”

Nearly all the students at Ürümqi’s No. 66 school belong to poor families who live hundreds of km away in the rural and underdeveloped parts of southern Xinjiang, closer to Kashgar. Ninety per cent of them belong to the ethnic ‘minorities’, as the Uighur Muslims and other ethnicities are termed. They have been brought here for an education, but more importantly, a “mainstream” Chinese education, in which religion, culture and ethnicities don’t find much of a place.

No overt religiosity

“According to the Constitution, we have freedom of religion,” says Qu Mingcai, principal of the school. “But until they are adults, religious activities are forbidden. When they grow up, they can choose what faith to follow.”

As a result, when asked, students at the school know little about the upcoming Eid festival or the month of Ramzan, and most say they don’t know how to pray. While they say they speak their native Uighur language at home, they focus on Mandarin and English in school.

Mr. Qu estimates that 90% of his students will move east to “mainland” China to continue their education and work, and hopes that this too will help in fostering a more homogenised culture. “They are all one ethnic group called Chinese,” he says, and mastering Mandarin is an “obligation” for every Chinese citizen.

China’s form of a “secular and nationalistic” education for the people of Xinjiang, where until some decades ago most people followed the Islamic faith, has long been a contentious issue, written about by human rights agencies and criticised by many governments as an attempt to change the demography of the region.

The U.S. State Department’s country report issued in April 2018 calls the repression of local culture and religion an effort to “Sinicize” the entire population. In a recent survey, Human Rights Watch stated that apart from what is taught at schools, as many as 800,000 Uighurs have been taken forcibly to “reeducation” camps where they are questioned about possibly extremist thoughts and indoctrinated on the perils of the “three evils” of “ethnic separatism, religious extremism, and violent terrorism”. Not all of them have returned, but some of those who have speak of harsh treatment and even violent punishments for those who didn’t learn their lessons well.

Other restrictions on faith are plain to the eye. In Ürümqi, Changji and Korla in central and north Xinjiang, it is difficult to see any men with beards, women with headscarves (veils are banned), mosque minarets, or many people praying at mosques. According to human rights agency reports, any overt form of religiosity could bring you under the scanner of the state’s well-spread surveillance system, and qualify you for a stint at the “reeducation” centre.

Fear of extremism

At Ürümqi’s Islamic Institute, a stone’s throw from No. 66, local officials attempt to explain what they call a “crackdown” on the “anti-human, anti-society” spread of extremism in Xinjiang. “Freedom of religion cannot overrule social order and education,” says Mahmood Usman, an official of the Religious Bureau of Xinjiang.

The Islamic Institute, among the 10 such institutes in the region that educate men to become imams, was established in 1982 with a grant of 250 million yuan. Deputy president of the institute Abdur Rahim takes us through its classrooms in a seven-storey-high building. Except for the colourful caps they wear, the students in class who are chanting and memorising verses from the Koran could as well be at a management school. Not one of them sports facial hair. All of them wear shirts, jackets and shoes as they sit on chairs and tables learning their lessons. Above, cheerful red banners in Mandarin proclaim the importance of nation over faith and family.

Abdur Rahim, who does have a small, well-kempt beard, dismisses all questions about restrictions as “western propaganda”. When pressed by journalists from our group, he points to how the institute itself has been allowed to grow from 100 students four decades ago to about 1,200 students now, as proof that the government encourages religious freedom. “But no society will tolerate religious extremism,” he says.

The fear of extremism is evident everywhere in the province, and the link between excess religiosity and terrorism is accepted as a fact by the officials here. By the standards of any of the countries bordering Xinjiang, including Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India, Xinjiang has seen a small number of attacks. The worst violence was in Ürümqi in 2009, when 197 people died in Han-Uighur riots, followed by an attack in Kunming railway station in 2014, when knife-wielding terrorists killed more than 30 people. Even so, security personnel are present in much larger numbers than in most terror-hit countries, and there is a police station situated every 100 metres. Fuel stations are surrounded by barbed wire. Passengers must dismount outside the station; only the driver is allowed inside after strict ID and security checks.

At high-security places, which include tourist sites, police personnel move in a rather striking triangular formation to avoid being attacked from any side. Surfing online for religious sites or information on terror groups can be hazardous as there is strong surveillance of the Internet, and any purchase, especially of things that can be used as weapons, is heavily scrutinised. One tourist who tried to buy a knife uploaded a video on how the knife was registered to the buyer’s ID, the ID number was then laser-emblazoned onto the blade, and his face recognition recorded.

Needless to say, all foreigners are watched and followed very closely and treated much like the “pandas” that author Vikram Seth likened them to during his own travels through Sinkiang in the early 1980s. “Officialdom treats the foreigner as one would a valuable panda given to fits of mischief,” he wrote in his travelogue From Heaven Lake: Travels Through Sinkiang and Tibet. “On no account must harm come to the animal. On the other hand, it must be closely watched at all times so that it doesn’t see too much, do too much on its own, or influence the behaviour of the local inhabitants.”

With the BRI, a sense of urgency

However close our treatment is to those distant days, China’s security crackdown and Sinicization programmes have a new urgency to them because of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious plans for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which runs right out of Xinjiang.

At the Ürümqi International Land Port zone, among the 18 “A class” land ports in the region, it is clear that the land route of the BRI will be driven by the railroads that run through Xinjiang. Even a few years before the BRI was announced in 2013, it would have been impossible to consider its scope. Today, a freight train goes from the Chinese city of Yiwu all the way to London, a distance that is second only to the Yiwu-Madrid freight route that traverses 12,874 km.

This year, officials estimate that about 800 trains will run between 35 Chinese cities and 34 European cities. New ones are being inaugurated every day. On the day we visit the port, a freight train dressed with a big red bow is preparing to undertake its first journey from Ürümqi to Naples in Italy. It’s a cargo train, carrying hundreds of thousands of bottles of tomato ketchup. The BRI is not just China’s outreach to the world for connectivity or influence. As China’s economic growth slows, down to an estimated 6.5% from 6.9% last year, these railway routes will also supply new markets for China’s flagging manufacturing industry.

At the heart of the Silk Road

In order to attract manufacturers to Xinjiang, the Chinese government has designated the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region as the ‘Core Zone of the Silk Road Economic Belt’. Incentives have been given to both industries and real estate developers. The grand lotus bud-shaped opera house of Changji, for instance, is only the first part of a grand project called the Silkroad Incity, which will house thousands in a township whose model displayed at the opera house for prospective buyers resembles a resort in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, and will include schools, colleges, hospitals and a football stadium.

Two hundred and fifty km south of Ürümqi, Korla is being marketed as the ‘Eye of the New Vitality of the Silk Road’. This dusty town on the edge of the desert has been transformed with a grant of $50 billion. Its population has doubled to 800,000 in a decade. The city centre today could be any bustling Western capital, with skyscrapers, malls and a huge central plaza with 69,000 sq m of office space. The aim is to make Korla a futuristic hub for applications development and cloud computing.

On the outskirts of Korla, the desert climate is also spawning new opportunities for China’s BRI. The dry air and soil have always been known for growing the juiciest pears and grapes, but Beijing’s push for business is attracting others.

In 2015, the Litai textile company of China’s Jinsheng group, which has business in 35 countries, decided to invest in a “million spindle” silk yarn factory. Its website says that its Korla plant was an “an important strategic initiative” to “[seize] the ‘Belt and Road’ development opportunity and [promote] strategic transformation of Litai, and will make a positive contribution to the regional stability and economic development in Xinjiang.”

Today, the mostly mechanised factory is up and running, with each unit producing about 75 tonnes of yarn a day. Jinsheng’s future plans involve harnessing the railway routes to Europe to send its products, a modern day reprisal of the ancient Silk Route where merchants carried tea and spices from the East and returned with western commodities.

Italian explorer Marco Polo is said to have discovered the Chinese ‘Baiju’ rice wine during his travels along the old Silk Route in the 13th century. Today, dozens of vineyards in Yanqi County, not far from Korla, are hoping to rev up production to the point where they can repeat along the new Silk Road Marco Polo’s wine exports.

“China has had 5,000 years of wine drinking, but regular grape wine is only just catching people’s attention,” says Zou Jiyun, the third-generation owner of the Xiangdu Winery that produces about 10 million bottles of Chan D’or wine a year. “As a wine culture grows and more wine is imported from Europe, it is necessary that we keep up with the competition.” The understanding is that the BRI will work “both ways” — the roads and railways could eventually bring in Western products to compete with Chinese goods.

Bumps on the Silk Road

However, not every investment is paying off. Sensing opportunity in Xinjiang, and facing labour problems in Kolenchery, Kerala, where it is headquartered, India’s spice essence manufacturer Synthite decided to set up a manufacturing plant in 2015 for export of Paprika oleoresins from Korla. The group, which had a turnover of ₹1,200 crore last year, controls about 45% of the world market in spice oleoresins, and is the world largest supplier of spice enhancers.

The Synthite China Country Head and General Manager-Operations, Sreekumar Methil, says their original plan for the Xinjiang plant was to double capacity quickly and ship out spices over the rail route, but they have held off expansion plans for the moment. “Despite the government’s push, the business atmosphere is still not easy in Xinjiang. The biggest problem is the security environment,” he says. He lists issues: security checks, difficult access to export facilities, and problems with the labour force, given the Han-Uighur tensions over the past few years.

“Working in China and working in Xinjiang are two very different things,” he says, indicating that Synthite facilities in other parts of China haven’t faced similar issues. In addition, relations between India and China, currently improving but frequently tense, also impact the working climate for Indian companies in Xinjiang, he notes.

Synthite’s problems point to the larger bumps on China’s new Silk Road, which could derail many of its ambitious plans. As a result, officials have been trying to reduce ethnic tensions in Xinjiang.

In Korla, city planners are working on massive housing projects to bring the two major communities to live together, unlike in Ürümqi, which was polarised and ghettoised before the 2009 riots. About 5,000 sq km have been acquired in Korla. Officials say all farmers and peasants are being given housing and compensation commensurate with the homes they gave up. We are welcomed into the home of one Uighur family which extols the virtues of modern living, with air-conditioning, heating and piped gas. Thousands of them will also have to be given vocational training over the years, as the state consciously attempts to move them away from farming to other professions.

When asked about the loss of traditional culture as a result of such urbanisation, officials take us to a quaint museum where they ‘showcase’ an old farm, with an old round-dial phone, a 1980s television, and basket-weaving women, to contrast this with the comforts of modern life and thus highlight their efforts in preserving traditional ways.

With its geographical position and climate benefits, Xinjiang has the most to offer the grand $1 trillion BRI. Yet, with its relatively poorer economic position, deep ethnic tensions and security situation, it could also contribute the most number of problems to the initiative. As one visiting journalist put it, the “core” of the Silk Road, as Xinjiang is called, is both at the heart of China’s biggest worries and is one of its greatest hopes.


The writer travelled to Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region as a part of a delegation of international journalists from 20 countries hosted by the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Deans » 23 Jun 2018 22:21

In the last few days the Chinese stock market has lost over $ 500 Billion, due to fears of a trade war with the US.
This is happening despite higher than expected GDP and export growth in 2018.
Even though Chinese markets can be `talked up' by the State, their current state is a better reflection of China's vulnerability, than Eleven's bluster.

India lost an opportunity to impose anti dumping duties during the Doklam crisis. $ 0.5 Billion in additional duty, could have reduced Chinese
exports by $10 Billion and knocked off $ 100 billion from the value of the Chinese market.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Neshant » 24 Jun 2018 06:17

China is doing a stealth devaluation of its currency in its trade war against the US.

--------------

China Hides Real Trade War Retaliation In Plain Sight - Stealth Devaluation

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06- ... evaluation

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 24 Jun 2018 12:09

Our MEA has no guts at all.A $60B trade deficit has beggared the economy, sent lakhs of SMSEs into oblivion millions at the lowest strata unemployed, not to mention the huge security risk from Chin mobiles and other electronic hardware.The US and a few other nations have banned such Chin cos., but what are we doing? Believing Chinese assurances? They're not worth the price of toilet paper they're written on! Mr.Modi must beware of ending up betrayed like Chacha Nehru.

Their strategy is sabre- rattling and bullying.The Chinese only respect strength and back down when they realise they cannot win a battle on the field.We have no alternative but to massively militarise and forcefully employ our diplomacy in creating a Pax Indica for the IOR.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Jun 2018 13:34

Philip wrote: . . . sent lakhs of SMSEs into oblivion millions at the lowest strata unemployed, not to mention the huge security risk from Chin mobiles and other electronic hardware. . . . .

So very true. There is a lack of awareness even among many, including some very top retired bureaucrats, with some of whom I share a forum on China. Some of them are evangelists for India joining BRI or allowing full access for Chinese telecom service providers and hardware makers.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Jun 2018 14:27

dinesha wrote:India’s hedging strategy is bound to fail
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... ound-fail/

A well analyzed & written article.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 24 Jun 2018 18:42

IT IS AMERICA’S MOVE IN ITS COMPETITION WITH CHINA
https://warontherocks.com/2018/06/it-is ... ith-china/

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 24 Jun 2018 19:33

SSridhar wrote:
dinesha wrote:India’s hedging strategy is bound to fail
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... ound-fail/

A well analyzed & written article.


Ok, so Hedging is bad per this article - what should India do?

What is different is that New Delhi, alongside, is also trying to reassure China and find common ground with it, apparently attempting to demonstrate to China that India has no interest in balancing or containing China. India’s friendships “are not alliances of containment” and it is not on “one side of a divide or another” as Modi stressed, more than once, in his Singapore speech. India wants a “multipolar world” as the Ministry of External Affairs press release stated after the informal Modi-Putin summit. New Delhi seems to be hoping that common interests — especially on trade — would override any other disagreements they may have.


China is a neighbor of India and shares a border (unless India or other powers want to change this) why would a balancing strategy where India is aligned with extra-regional powers in a formal way make any sense?

This is unlikely to work. It will satisfy neither China nor the partners that India hopes to balance China with.


On the other hand, India’s shift towards hedging will reduce the confidence of India’s potential partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.


The author will need to provide evidence for this - hatoasmi! - is India’s business to satisfy China or her other partners?
Which of India’s potential partners (especially in the Indo-Pacific) have said, done or shown that there is reduced confidence in Delhi?
The evidence is quite the contrary - from Republic day to more recent news articles on Singapore, Vietnam, S.Korea, etc.

The consequence of this hedging strategy will be that India will neither reduce the threat it faces from China nor have the partners it needs to counter this threat. This is the worst of all possible outcomes. We can hope that this is a short-term strategy forced by electoral compulsions, but even so, its effects are likely to be real and potentially enduring.


Does India need partners to reduce the threats it faces from China?
One suspects that Doklam and Gagan Shakti has given India military confidence.
However on the economic and other aspects it benefits India to work on common interest issues with a neighbor. To misunderstand this as a zero-sum game between balancing and hedging, only exposes the author’s sufferance due to electoral outcomes, and one suspects such sufferance will continue for time to come. He could have spent that wasted acumen on what India should do and limited it to a paragraph.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby abhik » 24 Jun 2018 23:50

A better description of our strategy than "hedging" would be "soft-GUBOing to China while playing hard to get with US", we will end up like the proverbial dhobi ka kutta.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kumarn » 25 Jun 2018 00:28

We are mighty pleased simply by the very fact that the cheenis sre finally engaging with us like 'equals' - informal sunmits and all. I think they are gauging the top leadership and their views as the general assessment is that modi is hear to stay and things are no longer going to be same again with india.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 25 Jun 2018 11:03

SSridhar wrote:
Philip wrote: . . . sent lakhs of SMSEs into oblivion millions at the lowest strata unemployed, not to mention the huge security risk from Chin mobiles and other electronic hardware. . . . .

So very true. There is a lack of awareness even among many, including some very top retired bureaucrats, with some of whom I share a forum on China. Some of them are evangelists for India joining BRI or allowing full access for Chinese telecom service providers and hardware makers.

Oh FFS why! They'd like to import Huawei's "smart cities" thing to India too I'm sure.

After reading that Suhasini Haider piece, read this thread on Twitter on the current state of things in Xinjiang -
https://twitter.com/meghara/status/1011084544680718336

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 25 Jun 2018 12:32

Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations: Managing the Strategic Rivalry After Doklam
https://carnegietsinghua.org/2018/06/21 ... -pub-76622

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Parasu » 25 Jun 2018 15:46

SSridhar wrote:
dinesha wrote:India’s hedging strategy is bound to fail
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... ound-fail/

A well analyzed & written article.

Quad was formed in 2007. Australia quit in 2008. That didnt affect the trust of other members of quad in it.
Trump has been tweeting sweet nothing s about Xi even after his power grab. Working to get ZTE back in business in US. That wouldnt affect the trust of other actors in Indo-pacific.
But if India moves to manage its interests with other countries, its strategy is bound to fail. !? :roll:

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Jun 2018 15:51

India lauds Mongolia’s ‘3rd neighbour’ policy; committed to strengthen cultural bond: Rajnath - PTI
ULAANBAATARIndia appreciates the ‘Third Neighbour’ policy of Mongolia, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh saidon Sunday.

The ‘Third Neighbour’ policy of Mongolia, a land-locked nation between Russia and China, refers to its building ties with countries other than these two. Mr. Rajnath, here on a three-day official visit, reiterated New Delhi’s commitment to further strengthen its cultural bond with Ulaanbaatar.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Trikaal » 25 Jun 2018 17:36

SSridhar wrote:India lauds Mongolia’s ‘3rd neighbour’ policy; committed to strengthen cultural bond: Rajnath - PTI
ULAANBAATARIndia appreciates the ‘Third Neighbour’ policy of Mongolia, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh saidon Sunday.

The ‘Third Neighbour’ policy of Mongolia, a land-locked nation between Russia and China, refers to its building ties with countries other than these two. Mr. Rajnath, here on a three-day official visit, reiterated New Delhi’s commitment to further strengthen its cultural bond with Ulaanbaatar.

Sweet nothings from our home minister when we already lost the opportunity to turn Mongolia away from China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 25 Jun 2018 19:45

Mongolia has no chance, landlocked as it is and sandwiched between China and its current best buddy Russia. Ground realities would always trump pious proclamations/desires. Even to fly there our Home Minister would need approval/nod from either of the two.

But I agree with you on the sweet nothings.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ashish raval » 26 Jun 2018 12:29

chanakyaa wrote:
ashish raval wrote:
We should be telling OPEC that if oil prices are not in region of 60 then...

Little off topic for this dhaga but your dream/desire or just wishful thinking may come true. Just may may, because it is a dog and pony show for now.

One Cartel going after other Cartel

This was exactly what I told when I was discussing these topic in pub talk with friends. It seems someone is upto it for last two decades now.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 26 Jun 2018 13:00

abhik wrote:A better description of our strategy than "hedging" would be "soft-GUBOing to China while playing hard to get with US", we will end up like the proverbial dhobi ka kutta.


This precise misunderstanding occurs when one misunderestimates India as the proverbial Kutta! :P :(
When US, Russia or even EU do the so called ‘soft-GUBOing’ they do this because of enlightened strategery, but India pure ‘hatoasmi!
Doomed! I tell you! This GOI Foriegn Policy is doomed as it is based on Modi seeking pre electoral support from El Presidente Xi - he is that weak!
</sarc never off for the dense>
The problem is not in the stars, but in the seekers!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 26 Jun 2018 14:37

India, Seychelles agree to work on naval base project, respect mutual concerns
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 734569.cms

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 26 Jun 2018 14:38

Yah ...

1. When Liu He, Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser rushes to Washington to placate Trump that is good strategy/tactics.
2. When China makes concessions and a promise to buy more from America that too is good strategy/tactics.

BUT when India does the same it is soft-GUBO.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby dinesha » 26 Jun 2018 14:41

India Hopes To Have Chabahar Port Operational By 2019
https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/in ... ional-2019

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 26 Jun 2018 16:07

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies ... nald-trump
Beijing tries to play down ‘Made in China 2025’ as Donald Trump escalates trade hostilities
Beijing is attempting to play down “Made in China 2025” by ordering state media to minimise their coverage of the industrial modernisation programme, as US President Donald Trump makes it a focus of his trade battle with China.

Three separate mainland media sources briefed about the directive told the South China Morning Post that the government has instructed Chinese state media agencies to avoid mentioning Made in China 2025 in their reports.

A reporter with a state-owned newspaper told the Post that an official affiliated with the Communist Youth League in Beijing recently made him aware of the demand.

Another source traced the clampdown back to early May, when an American delegation headed by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin flew to Beijing to begin trade negotiations with a Chinese team led by Vice-Premier Liu He.

What iz this??!

Xina which is 2/3 of US in USD GDP terms
Xina which is churning Fighters and Warships, etc, etc like hot-dogs

Is this also GUBO from Xina? or is it smart tactics of not provoking the bear unnecessarily or in a situation where losses from a confrontation is likely to outweigh gains?

AND if this is smart on part of Xina, will Modi be allowed to peruse a similar tactics with US, China or Russia without being called names by our enlightened analysts.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 26 Jun 2018 18:22

US aircraft carrier patrols disputed sea amid China buildup - AFP
MANILA: The US military has deployed the third US aircraft carrier this year to patrol the South China Sea, a disputed region where Washington has criticized China's military buildup on new man-made islands.

The 97,000-ton USS Ronald Reagan, carrying more than 70 aircraft, anchored in Manila Bay on Tuesday after plying the contended waters for meetings between navy officials of the two countries and liberty for its thousands of sailors after weeks at sea.

Rear Admiral Marc Dalton says the US military presence in the region "has supported our ability to defend our nation and our allies" and "promotes our ability to safeguard freedom of the seas, unimpeded commerce, to deter conflict and coercion."

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 26 Jun 2018 19:30

XI Guns just said that it is in their culture to " hit back",when confronted ( by an enemy) as it is in the trade spat with the US, which has imposed trade tariffs against China.That is an ominous statement that the GOI should factor in in its own trade war with China which is incomprehensible at the moment allowing a $60B deficit in China's favour.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Trikaal » 26 Jun 2018 20:56

No time like the present to declare trade war on China. Forget US and the measley 200 mill dollar tarrifs. Apply 60 billion dollar tarrifs on china goods. China is in a weak position right now. It can't fight 2 trade wars. It will have to settle with us if it has to win against US.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chaitanya » 26 Jun 2018 22:06

NYT Article with lots of information on how China got Hambantota:

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port

With 10 days to go before polls opened, around $3.7 million was distributed in checks: $678,000 to print campaign T-shirts and other promotional material and $297,000 to buy supporters gifts, including women’s saris. Another $38,000 was paid to a popular Buddhist monk who was supporting Mr. Rajapaksa’s electoral bid, while two checks totaling $1.7 million were delivered by volunteers to Temple Trees, his official residence.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Jun 2018 09:31

chaitanya wrote:NYT Article with lots of information on how China got Hambantota:

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port

Subscription site and I am unable to read the article.

However, the excerpt shows direct Chinese intervention in the electoral process.

An important but often neglected fall-out of holding sizeable strategic real-estate in Sri Lanka (and other countries also) is that it gives China a stake in the internal politics of Colombo (and other countries). Besides, a time may come eventually when Sri Lanka would be so emaciated that all its guarantees to India that it would not allow PLAN to use the port facilities would go with the wind.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Jun 2018 09:38

‘China proposed 2+1 format for India talks’ - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
The spirit of the Wuhan informal summit echoed strongly last week during the visit of Nepal Prime Minister K.P. Oli to Beijing, with China proposing a new dialogue mechanism that would also involve India.

An official source told The Hindu that the Chinese side proposed to Mr. Oli a “two plus one” format for dialogue. “This is different from a trilateral mechanism. Under the Chinese proposal, China and India can jointly conduct a dialogue with a third regional country,” the source said.

The Chinese initiative is not Nepal-specific. “My impression is that the two-plus one formulation is flexible and can be applied to any other country in South Asia {Very devious, IMO. China is trying to assure India that by launching such '2+1' dialogues, it will reduce India's mistrust and take into account our concerns. But, essentially, it is aimed at making India concede space officially and implicitly to China in India's backyard as this would amount to India recognizing China as its equal in the Greater Indian Subcontinent area} ,” the source said.


Meet with Xi

During Mr. Oli’s visit, the Chinese side made its intent clear to engage deeply with Nepal, and develop special ties with its Himalayan neighbour. The hosts broke protocol by initiating Mr. Oli’s meeting with President Xi Jinping, ahead of the customary delegation level talks with Prime Minister Li Keqiang.

Yet, Beijing also made it plain that China-Nepal ties would be docked with India’s shared interests as well. The Chinese leadership, in fact, made direct reference to the April Wuhan informal summit, which has begun to have a cascading impact on the region. “The Chinese made it clear that they were not interested in pursuing a zero-sum approach with Nepal. In fact, the hosts spoke about the Wuhan informal summit between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, including the discussion between the two leaders on achieving greater regional cooperation, which covered connectivity,” the source said.

During Mr. Oli’s visit, it had become evident that China was inclined to fulfill its ambitious agenda with Nepal gradually, after ensuring that such steps were in sync with India’s interests.

Analysts say, that the Nepali side has understood the “big picture”, appreciating that China is keen to build bridges with India, as Beijing’s friction with the U.S. under the Trump administration begins to mount.

“Besides, bringing India on board is essential for enhanced regional connectivity, including a trans-Himalayan corridor through Nepal, if President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative is to achieve its full potential,” the source observed.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pravula » 27 Jun 2018 09:40

SSridhar wrote:
chaitanya wrote:NYT Article with lots of information on how China got Hambantota:

How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port

Subscription site and I am unable to read the article.

However, the excerpt shows direct Chinese intervention in the electoral process.

An important but often neglected fall-out of holding sizeable strategic real-estate in Sri Lanka (and other countries also) is that it gives China a stake in the internal politics of Colombo (and other countries). Besides, a time may come eventually when Sri Lanka would be so emaciated that all its guarantees to India that it would not allow PLAN to use the port facilities would go with the wind.


Its not behind a subscription. Can you open incognito or something?


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Pulikeshi » 27 Jun 2018 12:12

SSridhar wrote: {Very devious, IMO. China is trying to assure India that by launching such '2+1' dialogues, it will reduce India's mistrust and take into account our concerns. But, essentially, it is aimed at making India concede space officially and implicitly to China in India's backyard as this would amount to India recognizing China as its equal in the Greater Indian Subcontinent area}


Overheard in Shanghai school of statistics & foundational math:

2 + 1 == 11 (XI)
{India + China} + X == “Chinese Hegemony wins!”

The desperation is to get X = Paki. I am beginning to suspect the Chinese demise will be with CHI-PAK & gOBOR
Someone should spend time looking at the overal overseas bad invest (NPA) China is burdenend with...
Also when Sri Lanka did the 99yr lease is that with the Chinese Harbour company or with the sovereign?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 27 Jun 2018 13:24

SS Saar is right as usual on the above point i.e. 2+1 formulation.

Also note,
Besides, bringing India on board is essential for enhanced regional connectivity, including a trans-Himalayan corridor through Nepal, if President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative is to achieve its full potential,” the source observed
No project is worth its salt commercially without Indian participation.
_________________________________________________________________________

BTW, below is not THE final word but one more data point on the road to the truth. I certainly don't believe in anything as absolute and unchanging. This is certainly not to diss the Chinese achievements till date and for their achievements they have my respect.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/ ... cience-and
China must stop fooling itself it is a world leader in science and technology, magazine editor says
China is fooling only itself if it thinks it will soon overtake the United States as a world leader in science and technology, according to the boss of a state-owned publication dedicated to the subject.

“The large gap in science and technology between China and developed countries in the West, including the US, should be common knowledge, and not a problem.” Liu said.

But it became problematic when the people who hype [China’s achievements] … fooled the leadership, the public and even themselves.”

Liu made the surprisingly candid speech at a science and technology seminar in Beijing on Thursday.

In it he said that despite the technological achievements China had made, there were still many obstacles for it to overcome before it could pose a serious challenge to more advanced nations.

<snip>

One example of the “hype” to which Liu was referring is an article by Xinhua that was widely circulated last autumn hailing China’s “four new great inventions”, namely high-speed rail, electronic payments, bike sharing and online shopping – even though none of them actually originated in the country.

I strongly disagree with this assessment that "China is fooling only itself". They are also fooling many enlightened analyst in India too ... or rather they have succeeded in making a lot of Indians believe that China is far far ahead than it actually is, the proof of which is on constant display on this very forum.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Jun 2018 19:51

Modi wants AIIB to expand financing by 10 times in next 2 years
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday called on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to expand financing by 10 times in next two years.

“With a committed capital of $100 billion and huge need for infrastructure in member countries, I take this opportunity to call upon AIIB to expand financing from $4 billion to $40 billion by 2020 and $100 billion by 2025,” Modi said, while addressing the opening ceremony of the third annual meeting of AIIB in Mumbai.


The Prime Minister noted that this would require simpler processing, and faster approval as well as high quality projects and robust project proposals.

“I believe that India and AIIB are both strongly committed to making economic growth more inclusive and sustainable,” Modi added.

China-led AIIB had been formed in 2016 with a committed capital of $100 billion, out of which the bank has so far disbursed $4.39 billion. India, the second largest shareholder of AIIB, is also a largest recipient of AIIB’s funds at the level of $1.4 billion.

“A key feature of developing Asia’s success to date is aggressive infrastructure investment. The economy cannot grow and people cannot reach their potential without necessary economic infrastructure,” AIIB President Jin Liqun said.

He emphasised that global economic institutions should be revitalised as although the global economic order is precious, it is not imperfect.

“As developing countries increase their share of the world economy, they should have greater weight in the multilateral institutions,” Jin said.

He added, however, that with greater weight also comes the responsibility. According to Jin, Between 2018 and 2030 Asia’s investment in infrastructure would almost triple - from today’s level to $2 trillion a year.

“This is an enormous challenge,” he said, adding that the required financing would have to come from multiple sources, including domestic and international, public and private sources of capital.

The partnership between international finance agencies is important to make these investments happen, Jin said, adding that “partnership is encoded in the DNA of AIIB”.

Infrastructure investments

Jin also pointed out that the future of infrastructure investments relies on three major principles - sustainability of financing, which means the projects should be bankable, environmental friendliness of the projects being financed and acceptance of people for the project that receive funding. {China's BRI doesn't follow any one of these three, Mr. Jin}

AIIB is also looking at new, unconventional models of funding and it is seeking to create capacity and expertise required to speed up infrastructure financing in the member countries.

In his speech, Narendra Modi noted that India has been already applying some of these new models of financing infrastructure development.

“We are applying novel public private partnership models, infrastructure debt funds, and infrastructure investment trusts to fund infrastructure,” he said.

Modi also noted that India is trying to develop brownfield assets as a separate asset class for infrastructure investment.

“Such assets, having passed the stages of land acquisition and environment and forest clearances, are relatively de-risked. Hence, for such assets, institutional investment from pension, insurance and sovereign wealth funds are likely to be more forthcoming,” he said.

The National Investment and Infrastructure Fund that has received a boost with AIIB committing $200 million investment is another effort to expand investments into infrastructure, Modi added.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Jun 2018 20:29

Of course, Nepal welcomes ‘two-plus-one’ dialogue mechanism - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
Nepalese officials are mulling over China’s proposal of a “two plus one” mechanism, where Beijing and New Delhi can jointly hold a dialogue with a third country in South Asia.

“We welcome the two- plus-one format as we are confident that such a dialogue will be conducted in a spirit of equality and mutual respect,” Shakti Bahadur Basnet, Nepal’s Minister of Forests and Environment, told The Hindu in Beijing.

The Chinese side has been emphatic that its relations with the Nepal will be conducted according to the five principles of peaceful coexistence — the basis for a foreign policy among equals. . . . .

Mr. Basnet pointed out that in the era of globalisation, it was imperative for Nepal to maintain close ties with both its neighbours — China and India.

“We respect the latest global trends. The objective situation internationally and the regionally demands that Nepal should have a high level of cooperation both with China and India,” he observed.

The Nepalese Minister saw the rise of China and India as a “big opportunity” for the development of Nepal. “Nepal’s two big neighbours are developing very fast. It is a big opportunity for us if we can manage our relations with both countries properly.”

“In this way Nepal wants to be a bridge between India and China,” he observed.

Mr. Basnet said that Nepal “understands the spirit of Wuhan,” alluding to the “informal summit” in April between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which has re-railed India-China ties, following an omnibus strategic dialogue between the two leaders. . . .

Mr. Basnet highlighted that Nepal’s ties with India and China were governed by “specific conditions that were not contradictory.” “With India we have an open border, marked by extensive people-to people relations. This is quite unique, and must not be misused. With China too, we have a deep historical relationship.”

He pointed out that India and Nepal, at the state-to-state level had already bridged the divide caused by the 2015 events, when the flow of Indian goods into landlocked Nepal had been impeded, following a controversial agitation. “The sentiment of the people has also been moving in the positive direction, in tune with the rebooting of the political relationship, especially after Mr. Oli’s visit to India” he observed.

Mr. Basnet said that Nepal was looking for a partnership with China and India to develop connectivity in the Himalayan nation.


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