Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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kancha
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kancha » 12 Dec 2018 15:57

SSridhar wrote:
Dumal wrote:

Dumal, I have them.




Great, SSridhar!
Reminded me of a blog post I had put out in the aftermath of the Doklam Crisis!
:mrgreen:
Blog Link
Twitter Link

Sharing some ramblings on the way the #Doklam standoff has played out so far. I say ‘so far’ because it is still not over. Far from it!

Will not go into the background of it all. Have already shared my thoughts some days ago in this BLOG POST. For a historical and geographical background to the nature of the dispute, this short BLOG POST should suffice.


Regardless, China kept up its claims and poking Bhutan until the 2012 agreement to agree to retain the status quo on ground. And full marks to China that they stuck to this agreement for FULL FIVE YEARS! But the ‘inevitable itch’ soon shifted from its Eastern Bum (South China Sea) to its Western Bum(LAC). Soon the flag bearers of the so called ‘Peaceful Rise of China’ peacefully marched into sovereign Bhutanese territory with impressive road building equipment. The OBOR had arrived in Bhutan, so what if it was sort of uninvited!

But this is where China realized that the warts on its Eastern Bum are a tad bit different from the warts on its Western Bum! Whereas the PRC could easily steamroll over its smaller neighbours in the SCS, in Doklam, however, the Chinese found themselves on the other side of the steamroller. Literally.


How dare the barbarians to the West refuse to kowtow to the Middle Kingdom! Thus started the sabre rattling (or the noise of the empty vessels, if you will!) Enraged princelings revved their super car engines in anger in Sydney. VERY LOUDLY! (LINK)

Then came a ‘cute’ little video on the Seven Scenes of India by the State Broadcaster. But full credit to them in taking pains to ensure it was NOT RACIST (India-China border dispute: Bizarre video mocks New Delhi with racist stereotype) at all! In fact they even put out a cute little Sardar!


BRICS summit was fast approaching. And the barbarians, far from kowtowing, were making fun of him (LINK)!

Didn’t they get the memo wherein they were supposed to roll over and die at the mere sight of the Chinaman? His plans for a grand ‘victory’ right before the BRICS Summit, and more importantly, the Chinese Commie Party’s Congress soon thereafter, where he was to proclaim himself the next Chairman, after Mao, were in danger!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 12 Dec 2018 17:21

CNN


Trump expresses openness to using Huawei CFO as bargaining chip in China trade talks
By Betsy Klein and Ben Westcott, CNN

(CNN)President Donald Trump said Tuesday his administration is open to using the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou as a bargaining chip in ongoing trade negotiations with China.

Asked by Reuters in an interview if he would intervene in the case, Trump said, "Whatever's good for this country, I would do."
He continued, "If I think it's good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made -- which is a very important thing -- what's good for national security -- I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary."

Trump's comments are unlikely to calm growing fury in China amid repeated claims in the country's state-run media that Meng's detention is politically motivated.
"The US and Canada are undoubtedly abusing their justice systems ... Washington should not attempt to use its domestic laws as strategic support for its commercial and diplomatic competition," an editorial in state media tabloid Global Times said Wednesday.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 12 Dec 2018 17:44

^^^ It looks like Cheen will capitulate to Trump. Lol.

They will not challenge the US standards in technology and financials. They’ll stay at number 2 (no matter what the size of their economy) because the US can annihilate their growth.

Cheen is lowering tariffs on Amreeki cars as we speak even as the US continue to persecute and grind down Huawei! Who is kowtowing to who? LOL

The only issue for us is the bargain he negotiated with the chinis. Do they get a quid pro quo over something less strategic to the US for giving in? The US won’t budge on East Asia, Europe, the Middle East or South America or anywhere in the Western Hemisphere.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Hari Seldon » 12 Dec 2018 18:50

chola wrote:The only issue for us is the bargain he negotiated with the chinis. Do they get a quid pro quo over something less strategic to the US for giving in? The US won’t budge on East Asia, Europe, the Middle East or South America or anywhere in the Western Hemisphere.


That leaves sooth asia. just saying.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 12 Dec 2018 18:54

the mood in centurychina plaboard is definitely a bit glum

kind of like banglacricket forum after rohit sharma has blasted 175 off 80 balls :mrgreen:

so the bigger dog may be starting to gain a upper hand over the next in line dog, in the cagefight.....question is how can we profit from both and weaken them both at the same time to pave our path to no1 :-?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby TKiran » 12 Dec 2018 18:58

^^^chola, what you are saying is correct in the short term and also in the medium term.

Strategically in the long term China is a Frankenstein monster. I have seen first hand in China the strategic way they engineered their society. Every Chinese is a Xi. They don't have any shame in stealing the technology. The best way to deal with such a country is to regulate your own technological edge and protect intellectual property. But the greed of the corporate CEO's led to this..

Well now it's a more difficult task to contain China, unless US, Europe Japan and India constantly put hurdles, and when an opportunity comes, test the fault lines and break the will. US alone cannot control China.

US should wholeheartedly side with India, and start with Pakistan breakage first. That will make cheen come to it's senses.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 12 Dec 2018 20:46

cheen has to be kept off balance from all sides to stand a chance of containment
thing with hyenas while a couple of them skirmish and district the lion, 3 of them side by side attack the rear quadrant...there is never less than 3 linebackers running in for a bite together.


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 12 Dec 2018 20:50

Singha wrote:but arent they sitting on the worlds biggest known deposits of "rare earths" and mongolia/tibet/east turkestan is all sand for silicon ?

Semicon manufacturing is a very intensive multi-step process. You need high quality raw materials, gases, acids, etching stuff, this that that is produced all over the west. And they're constantly working on the next best thing. So getting the entire process finetuned to cutting edge is very difficult. The Chinese know that they're lacking in this area. But hey, they're throwing billions. Lookup critical materials council meetups in China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 13 Dec 2018 15:35

TKiran wrote:
Well now it's a more difficult task to contain China, unless US, Europe Japan and India constantly put hurdles, and when an opportunity comes, test the fault lines and break the will. US alone cannot control China.

US should wholeheartedly side with India, and start with Pakistan breakage first. That will make cheen come to it's senses.


No, the US is at a point where it can contain China alone. In fact, it can force open and dominate a good chunk of the Chinese market along the way.

Those early attacks on the allies — Europe, South Korea and Japan — were to keep them in line so they don’t benefit from the chini market while Unkil is fighting a trade war.

The chinis are capitulating under Trump’s assault — they are giving up their “Make in China 2025” plans!!! Imagine us giving up “Made in India” over phoren pressure!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-12/china-said-to-consider-delaying-high-tech-plans-amid-trade-war

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-is-preparing-to-increase-access-for-foreign-companies-11544622331

China will not challenge US standards in technology and financials. They are signaling that they are content to stay in 2nd place.

The US won’t see a need to make a deal with anyone else to contain China. It has the power to do it by themselves. It would be different if the chinis had fought and drag this thing out. But they’ve capitulated too quickly and completely.

The truth is Cheen is looking like it is already neutered and contained by the US.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 13 Dec 2018 16:01

chola wrote:China will not challenge US standards in technology and financials. They are signaling that they are content to stay in 2nd place.

The US won’t see a need to make a deal with anyone else to contain China. It has the power to do it by themselves. It would be different if the chinis had fought and drag this thing out. But they’ve capitulated too quickly and completely.

The truth is Cheen is looking like it is already neutered and contained by the US.


This conclusion is very premature and entirely unlike somebody who is raring to get to the top step. They will take a step back, regroup and try harder again. This talk of giving up is just naiive. They might end up giving Trump some concessions but move all their policies underground without trumpetting them - they had to do that to establish Xi's reign and its continuation. Big bold idea, progress, word no 1 etc etc. Now they can use this to tell their own ppl - see, big bad west doesn't like us becoming bigger and challenging numero uno position, we gotta keep quiet and work harder and then we can truly take them on. I'll believe this giving up when I see domestic funding dropping (that is why they have to give trade concessions. can't let the $$ tap go dry).

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 13 Dec 2018 16:09

chola wrote:
TKiran wrote:
Well now it's a more difficult task to contain China, unless US, Europe Japan and India constantly put hurdles, and when an opportunity comes, test the fault lines and break the will. US alone cannot control China.

US should wholeheartedly side with India, and start with Pakistan breakage first. That will make cheen come to it's senses.


No, the US is at a point where it can contain China alone. In fact, it can force open and dominate a good chunk of the Chinese market along the way.

Those early attacks on the allies — Europe, South Korea and Japan — were to keep them in line so they don’t benefit from the chini market while Unkil is fighting a trade war.

The chinis are capitulating under Trump’s assault — they are giving up their “Make in China 2025” plans!!! Imagine us giving up “Made in India” over phoren pressure!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-12/china-said-to-consider-delaying-high-tech-plans-amid-trade-war

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-is-preparing-to-increase-access-for-foreign-companies-11544622331

China will not challenge US standards in technology and financials. They are signaling that they are content to stay in 2nd place.

The US won’t see a need to make a deal with anyone else to contain China. It has the power to do it by themselves. It would be different if the chinis had fought and drag this thing out. But they’ve capitulated too quickly and completely.

The truth is Cheen is looking like it is already neutered and contained by the US.


the hans are looking to ease external pressures so as to deal with more pressing internal issues that can easily snowball if left unattended and take out the current leadership, if not contained and addressed in the short term.

There will always be another day to tackle the US. External pressures of this nature are not regime or existential threats for the hans, especially looking at the way they smartly backed off in SL and the maldives and are maintaining a low profile in pakiland as well as cooling their jets with the entire BRI/OBOR/CPEC issue. The IMF ploy of Trump has put paid to a lot of the han plans in this area.

Thye hans are running scared of trump because of his utter unpredictability, the unprecedented scale of his retaliatory responses and his ability to remain the black swan on a global stage where the hans are used to measured responses and their response mechanism has simply been overwhelmed and Trump seemingly does not care a jot for their mythical economic strengths.

However, there is a lot more at stake for the hans with the growing contagion of creeping and global threats to huawei. I have a feeling that the much vaunted han hacking capabilities are tied to the backdoor access built into some of the Huawei equipment. The enormous benefits that huawei gets from their ties and connections to silicon valley add to their ability to innovate quickly and continuously in this specific field and Trump has hit them hard right in the huawei solar plexus.

This move against the hans is not a mere spur of the moment whim of Trump, even though it may look like it is because of the sheer illogicality of it all but it smacks of deep planning as well as active management designed to beat the hans at their own game.

It is a well sprung trap and well timed strike.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 13 Dec 2018 16:29

chetak wrote:However, there is a lot more at stake for the hans with the growing contagion of creeping and global threats to huawei. I have a feeling that the much vaunted han hacking capabilities are tied to the backdoor access built into some of the Huawei equipment. The enormous benefits that huawei gets from their ties and connections to silicon valley add to their ability to innovate quickly and continuously in this specific field and Trump has hit them hard right in the huawei solar plexus.


Huawei equipment is non-existent in the US where the most hacks occurred. They are using other means.

But Huawei is the most important asset in this struggle. I remember reading an analysis a few years back that Huawei and ZTE were the first “non-western” global communication infrastructure firms (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan being strongly entrenched in the western eco-system) and so were hard to predict in their strategy and mode of operation.

Communication (and transportation) networks underpin all economic activities. Chini companies are the first non-gora entities to build global networks in the past 500 years. Stopping Huawei and ZTE can slow down this challenge if not put an end to it.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 13 Dec 2018 16:44

chola wrote:
chetak wrote:However, there is a lot more at stake for the hans with the growing contagion of creeping and global threats to huawei. I have a feeling that the much vaunted han hacking capabilities are tied to the backdoor access built into some of the Huawei equipment. The enormous benefits that huawei gets from their ties and connections to silicon valley add to their ability to innovate quickly and continuously in this specific field and Trump has hit them hard right in the huawei solar plexus.


Huawei equipment is non-existent in the US where the most hacks occurred. They are using other means.

But Huawei is the most important asset in this struggle. I remember reading an analysis a few years back that Huawei and ZTE were the first “non-western” global communication infrastructure firms (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan being strongly entrenched in the western eco-system) and so were hard to predict in their strategy and mode of operation.

Communication (and transportation) networks underpin all economic activities. Chini companies are the first non-gora entities to build global networks in the past 500 years. Stopping Huawei and ZTE can slow down this challenge if not put an end to it.


Quite a lot of the telcom components of non han companies are also subcontracted to and manufactured by companies in china. All these have backdoors too for "maintenance" purposes and surely the hans would have smartly put in additional backdoors of their own. Their acknowledged prowess in manufacturing, extensive infrastructure, and technical capabilities have given them unprecedented access to the equipment of other companies.

huawei is a catchall phrase and includes all telecom stuff coming out of china, including smartphones, apps, browsers and hardware like laptops and computers and servers.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 13 Dec 2018 16:50

Prasad wrote:
This conclusion is very premature and entirely unlike somebody who is raring to get to the top step. They will take a step back, regroup and try harder again.


Of course, they’ll try again.

But when? They’ll try in a decade or maybe with another generation? What makes you think the US don’t know this and won’t be waiting to clobber them again?

History is infinite. Humans can only affect small pieces of it at a time.

At this point in time, the US does not see it needing to make deals with anyone else to contain China. It has already shown that ability by browbeating Europe, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Japan into new trade agreements with tariffs even as it took on Cheen.

As to Cheen rearing to get to the top step? Maybe not so rearing to go after suffering serious pain. Countries don’t give up technology goals or even try to hide it underground unless it is feeling immense pressure.

US stays at Number 1 for our lifetime, I’ll wager. And this will be so even if Cheen crosses the US GDP in nominal terms because I think the price to ease this pain is to accept US standards in technology (continue paying Qualcomm and importing chips) and financials (Western banks and regulations.)

A chini company cannot even sell to a third party (like Iran) without being persecuted by the US because it must use US technology and the US global financial system. This is POWER capitalized and the US will make sure that those levers are kept in place under any deal to reduce the pain.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby nam » 13 Dec 2018 18:21

One of the prime advantage of US is it's ability to have powerful allies. Europe, Arab countries,Israel in Middle East, SK+Japan+Australia in Asia.

All of these either have money, resources or technology. So fundamentally powerful part of the world is on US's side.US has provided gold and shed blood to get these allies and maintain them. It provides them technology to maintain ally's national interest. In return the allies are fully integrated in to the US system in a symbiotic relationship.

Someone like Turkey who tried to break out of this, is not able to do it because of the financial and technical dependence. Despite the bravado, they want their F35, which no one else can provide. US even continues ignoring the death of it's servicemen to keep Pak on their side! Paks known this and still would like those F16s!

Even the Russian have shed blood & gold for Syria.

Unfortunately for the Chinese the type of allies they have is Pak & NK, seems to have learnt the wrong lesson. They suit perfectly in the world of Chinese leadership. They can be bought by paying and will take whatever tech the Chinese have. Chinese may be able to provide gold & tech, but haven't been able to shed blood to maintain this relationship. Even in terms of money, the provide loan, not aid! The Chinese leadership has taken the easy way out.

A perfect example. Philippines. The president went bonkers against Obama. Chinis had a great opportunity to kick US out from Philippines. Instead they were interested in capturing more sea water! And Philippines is now out of Chini camp.

So looks like Chinis want economic colonies like Pak.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2018 18:44

a good number of cash rich cheen cos have setup R&D centers in silicon valley to employ the talent there esp in advanced SW.
this too might be on FBI and Trump radar and some restrictions imposed on what these cos do and how much they can take.
people skills are obviously harder to control than physical assets...

one thing i know is huawei has so called r&d centers in north america (sv, texas, ottawa)...my friend was saying the intent is not to develop products but to employ superstar brandname engineers and experts and "pick their brains" for whatever is coming in the industry and pay really fat salaries.

they have also got into JVs with top univs like waterloo in canada. they have poached lot of people from ex-Nortel also.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-it-like-t ... for-Huawei
Extrarodinarily well-paid. Have had a history of opening a development centre across the street from Ericsson or ALU and enticing engineers with immediate 50% pay rise plus a signing bonus.
Very frugal. Despite the pay they do give the mindset is 'cash costs, labor is free' so very stingy but throw resources (people) at things.
Very Chinese dominated. If you are senior expect to spend a lot of time in China and learning Chinese would not hurt

=====

Aslan Khan
Aslan Khan, former Senior Consultant at Ericsson
Answered May 19, 2017
An utter trash of a company in terms of labor management.

I had the honor of working with it in different capacities (since they have totally monopolised the telecom market with underbiddings and kicked European companies down). There is definitely an utter hate from almost 99℅ of the non-Chinese employees working there. Being a MNC, it still has not learnt the value of globalism and seem a through and through Chinese oriented organisation despite handling profits of 60+ billions usd. The recent downsizing of 33℅ employees, from all departments is another blight in its record. Why?, Because of the poor sales of its P10 smartphones. Later the company management revealed that they actually used low quality chipsets, because of low supply of these chipsets in the market. (Why in Gods name then Huawei launched their new phone like that anyway??). And then they believed that they are competing with Apple Iphone! :(

This is how their Ceo talks with this Employees.” Thirty-something strong men, don't work hard, just want to count money in bed, is that possible?," Ren said in the memo lay seen by Reuters. "Huawei will not pay for those that don’t work hard."

Thats Mr. Ren Zhengfei, talking like probably a neo Nazi person ruler. Obviously red with anger, that his smartphone market didn’t cross Apple Iphone in 2017.

In all this 33℅ lay offs, most Chinese managers were seen protecting their Chinese staff. Whole divisions of Indian staff have been laid off and their 200 staff were unceremoniously told that they were laid off due to cost cutting in India’s GTAC centres. Some Huawei staff were laid off via ‘sms’ in South Africa, for which many blocked roads in Johannesburg.

Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2018 18:48

generally i think the east asian top down work culture and tough bosses do not sit well in rest of world be it NA/EU/IND/AUS.

with much fanfare samsung had setup a silicon valley office a while ago, I heard its in doldrums now.

even in india the samsung and LG policies are quite tough, though pay is good. samsung has a no-wfh policy. they recruit students from very good institutes...though i am not sure how many stick around long term.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 13 Dec 2018 19:12

Trump is unique and very unpredictable. If the Democrats return next turn and the Chinese push contributions to various foundations, think they'll be as hard as Trump on them? How soon could that change? Nyt, wapo are secstate mouthpieces. They'll turn media attention in a second if needed.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 13 Dec 2018 19:14

To follow-on, I've been following these guys reporting out of Aladdin-land for a while now. Tell me, what have the goons done in X that hasn't been done in Tibet? Forced disappearances, blatant demolitions, massive state scrutiny/surveillance, all of it. Nothing is new. So then why rake up X? Think about it.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2018 20:06

CNN

Second Canadian under investigation in China as diplomatic spat intensifies
By Joshua Berlinger, CNN

(CNN)A second Canadian is believed to have been detained in China in a potential act of retribution that threatens to escalate the diplomatic dispute between Washington, Beijing and Ottawa, following the arrest of a Chinese Huawei executive in Canada.

On Thursday, China's Foreign Ministry confirmed that Canadian nationals Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig are "being investigated" on suspicion of "activities that endangered China's national security."
Speaking at a daily press briefing in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said authorities had taken "compulsory measures" on the two men on December 10 and that both cases remain under investigation.
Lu would not specify when asked by CNN what "compulsory measures" meant, nor would he be drawn on whether the two men remain in custody. The term "compulsory measures" is generally used to refer to detention in China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chanakyaa » 13 Dec 2018 21:37

Prasad wrote:...They will take a step back, regroup and try harder again. This talk of giving up is just naiive. They might end up giving Trump some concessions but move all their policies underground without trumpetting them - they had to do that to establish Xi's reign and its continuation. Big bold idea, progress, word no 1 etc etc. Now they can use this to tell their own ppl - see, big bad west doesn't like us becoming bigger and challenging numero uno position, we gotta keep quiet and work harder and then we can truly take them on...

That is correct Prasad Saar. Who knows how much of it was already underground. And, Now it is definitely going even deeper, making a nation security priority. And, i’m sure uncle knows it. Hans looks like following it’s time tested strategy of buying more time, and desperate attempts by uncle to delay the day of reckoning.

I started reading about Han’s attempt at developing home grown CPU. Some names like Loongson are in public domain, which allegedly can run Linux software. And their is mobile chip maker Huawei who has developed very first 7nm mobile chip, according to IFA 2018. Please correct me if I misread, but it looks like it is the first 7nm chip maker using Taiwanese chip manufacturer. Anyone who can run computer using completely home grown tech is huge. For the rest of the world, if uncle decides not to sell you any chips that run your computers, imagine what happens to that country.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 13 Dec 2018 22:16

china inhouse fabrication is currently at 28nm per the article Prasad posted. Intel is @ 14nm and will ship 10nm in 2019(a bit delayed). TSMC has somehow wormed its way down to 7nm. so Cheen is locked out of making proper workhorse CPU at leading edge, but perhaps trailing edge CPUs and certainly defence applications and mobile things they can do.

28nm is only 7 years behind intel fab

Image

wrt process eqpt they must be trying to develop what they can , poach human talent and steal whatever they can. their govt run industrial hacking is the largest in the world.

the kind of lithography equipment that can handle such precision and deliver good yield @ scale would be off the chart and VERY closely guarded crown jewels like the hot section technology of gas turbines.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 13 Dec 2018 22:55

Very true. There are a few details on their investments in this regard in both my articles posted earlier in this thread. It is quite widespread. That is what we must remember. Central and city/state governments are pouring in money like anything. But hi-tech needs that and more with uncertain results.

Singhaji,
there is widespread talk/rule of thumb that Intel's feature size is comparable to a smaller sized one from tsmc in terms of overall performance. So a 10 == 7 fwiw.

chanakyaji,
another point to note is that, even before all this targetting began, china stopped talking about its talent acquisition program called 1000 talents. Mainly because of how they wanted to gain know-how :)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ldev » 13 Dec 2018 23:55

The real holy grail is not chip manufacturing but the machines that make the chips ...... 10nm, 7nm is not possible without the machines to make them. Have a desi friend who works for ASML in the Netherlands...they are the largest manufacturer of photolithiography systems in the world. Intel afaik has a 15% equity stake in them. China would love to get their hands on/in them.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 14 Dec 2018 07:29

X-posted from the Military Exercise thread
Military drill with a dozen African nations next year - Rajat Pandit, ToI
India is now stepping-up efforts for a concrete military outreach to Africa after a diplomatic one to counter the deep strategic inroads made by China in the world’s second largest continent, even as the two Asian rivals continue with their shadow-boxing for influence in the Indian Ocean Region.

India will conduct an “India-Africa Field Training Exercise (IAFTX)” in Pune from March 18 to 27 next year, which will see the participation of over a dozen countries ranging from Tanzania and Kenya to Ghana and South Africa, said defence ministry sources on Wednesday.

“Though Indian armed forces do train some military personnel from a few African nations, the IAFTX will be the first-ever such exercise with several armies from Africa. The initial planning conference for IAFTX was held a few days ago, with the final one slated for end-January,” said a source.

Interestingly, Army chief General Bipin Rawat is also slated to visit Tanzania and Kenya from December 17 to 20 to bolster defence cooperation. As part of its overall policy, India has also been holding defence cooperation talks with countries like Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia as well, say sources.

The defence engagement with South Africa is, of course, at a much higher level. Warships and aircraft from India, South Africa and Brazil, for instance, held the sixth edition of the IBSAMAR naval exercise off Simons Town in October.

“But India has not conducted any bilateral or multi-lateral exercise with other African nations like IAFTX despite long-standing ties with them,” said the source. The exercise will involve “humanitarian mine action” (de-mining and other protocols to handle landmines and explosives) and peace-keeping operations, in which India has decades of expertise, among other areas.

The IAFTX endeavor, incidentally, comes at a time when India is wrapping up a hectic military diplomacy year, which saw it conducting exercises with all the P-5 countries (US, Russia, China, France and UK), apart from other powerhouses like Australia, Japan, South Africa and Brazil as well as Asean countries like Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, as was earlier reported by TOI.

But India, much like in the IOR, simply does not have the deep pockets like China for a massive economic and military engagement with Africa. Backed by its multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, which even has the US and Europe worried, China has fast expanded its footprint in Africa as the “New Great Game” plays out in the continent known for its minerals and other raw commodities.

China in July, incidentally, had dismissed any new Sino-Indian rivalry in Africa, stressing the two Asian giants were on the same page in their efforts to assist the countries there. This had come soon after both President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Rwanda, one after the other, while heading for the BRICS summit in South Africa.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 14 Dec 2018 17:47

it seems a chinese intel officer was lured to belgium, and extradited to US to face charges that could be 15 years in prison....for leading some hacking efforts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 70fe70e871

2 months ago

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 14 Dec 2018 17:50

https://www.smh.com.au/technology/how-c ... 50h80.html

they diverted internet data of australia via mainland china using ownership of submarine cables and "routing errors"

in another "error" they released false routes for large subnets and sucked up internet traffic

https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... 8-minutes/

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 14 Dec 2018 23:03

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/busi ... e=Homepage

workers being sent home early on unpaid vacation as economy slows

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 15 Dec 2018 08:02

The 6 reasons why Huawei gives the US and its allies security nightmares



The 6 reasons why Huawei gives the US and its allies security nightmares

The biggest fear is that China could exploit the telecom giant’s gear to wreak havoc in a crisis.

by Martin Giles and Elizabeth Woyke, December 7, 2018.



The detention in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s CFO and the daughter of its founder, is further inflaming tensions between the US and China. Her arrest is linked to a US extradition request. On December 7 a Canadian court heard that the request relates to Huawei's alleged use of Skycom Tech, a company that dealt with Iranian telecom firms, to sell equipment to Iran between 2009 and 2014 in contravention of US sanctions on the country. China says her detention is a human rights violation and is demanding her swift release.

Behind this very public drama is a long-running, behind-the-scenes one centered on Western intelligence agencies’ fears that Huawei poses a significant threat to global security. Among the spooks’ biggest concerns:

There could be “kill switches” in Huawei equipment …

The Chinese firm is the world’s largest manufacturer of things like base stations and antennas that mobile operators use to run wireless networks. And those networks carry data that’s used to help control power grids, financial markets, transport systems, and other parts of countries’ vital infrastructure. The fear is that China’s military and intelligence services could insert software or hardware “back doors” into Huawei’s gear that they could exploit to degrade or disable foreign wireless networks in the event of a crisis. This has led to moves in the US to block Chinese equipment from being used.

... that even close inspections miss

Since 2010, the UK has been running a special center, whose staff includes members of its GCHQ signal intelligence agency, to vet Huawei gear before it’s deployed. But earlier this year, it warned that it had “only limited assurance” that the company’s equipment didn’t pose a security threat. According to press reports, the center had found that some of Huawei’s code behaved differently on actual networks from the way it did when it was tested, and that some of its software suppliers weren’t subject to rigorous controls.

Back doors could be used for data snooping

Huawei claims its equipment connects over a third of the world’s population. It’s also handling vast amounts of data for businesses. That’s why there’s fear in Western intelligence circles that back doors could be used to tap into sensitive information using the firm’s equipment. This would be tricky to do undetected, but not impossible. Huawei doesn’t just build equipment; it can also connect to it wirelessly to issue upgrades and patches to fix bugs. There’s concern that this remote connectivity could be exploited by Chinese cyber spies.

The company is also one of the world’s biggest makers of smartphones and other consumer devices, which has raised the prospect that China might exploit these products for espionage. In May, the US Department of Defense ordered retail stores on US military bases to stop selling phones from Huawei and ZTE, another big Chinese tech giant, because of fears they could be hacked to reveal the locations and movements of military personnel.

The rollout of 5G wireless networks will make everything worse

Telecom companies around the world are about to roll out the next generation of cellular wireless, known as 5G. As well as speeding up data transfers, 5G networks will enable self-driving cars to talk to each other and to things like smart traffic lights. They’ll also connect and control a vast number of robots in factories and other locations. And the military will use them for all kinds of applications, too. This will dramatically expand the number of connected devices—and the chaos that can be caused if the networks supporting them are hacked. It will also ramp up the amount of corporate and other data that hackers can target. Both Australia and New Zealand have recently banned the use of Huawei equipment in new 5G wireless infrastructure. This week, the UK's BT followed suit.

Chinese firms will ship tech to countries in defiance of a US trade embargo

The US has been investigating claims that Huawei shipped products with US tech components to Iran and other countries subject to a US embargo. In the court hearing, a lawyer for the Canadian government said that Ms Meng is accused of telling US bankers there was no connection between Skycom and Huawei, when in fact there was. The alleged fraud caused the banks to make transactions that violated US sanctions against Iran. Chinese officials have repeatedly said they don’t consider China's companies to be bound by other nations’ trade edicts.

Huawei isn’t as immune to Chinese government influence as it claims to be

Huawei has repeatedly stressed it’s a private company that’s owned by its employees. The implication is that it has no incentive to cause customers to lose confidence in the integrity of its products. On the other hand, its governance structures are still something of a mystery, and its founder, Ren Zhengfei, who was once an officer in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, keeps a low profile. Such things “make you question just how much independence it really has,” says Adam Segal, a cybersecurity expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

In its defense, Huawei can point to the fact that no security researchers have found back doors in its products. “There’s all this concern, but there’s never been a smoking gun,” says Paul Triolo of the Eurasia Group. While that’s true, it won’t change the view of the US, which is stepping up its efforts to persuade its allies to keep Huawei out of all their networks.

This story was updated on December 7 to include details of a court hearing in Canada about Ms Meng's detention.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 15 Dec 2018 08:17

Singha wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/business/china-economy-xi-jinping.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

workers being sent home early on unpaid vacation as economy slows


the amerikis seem to have picked their fight as well as the timing of it to catch xi peng/(china) at his/its most vulnerable.

This is not a mere happenstance that "just happened" because of the arrival of "crazy" trump on the scene.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Peregrine » 16 Dec 2018 01:42

Why Xi Jinping is worried about 2019 - James Miles - China editor, The Economist

In 2019 several important anniversaries loom. The Communist Party is nervous.

Thirty years ago, as 1989 approached, political storm-clouds were gathering over China. Bitter divisions had emerged within the leadership over how far and how fast to pursue economic reform. Inspired by the Soviet Union’s liberalising leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, some people in China were daring to suggest that their own country should loosen up, too. The calendar for the coming year included big anniversaries of political events in China’s modern history. Many intellectuals were awaiting those dates with excitement, hoping the occasions would provide them with a pretext to air their grievances about the party’s record in power.

The run-up to 2019 is far less febrile. But once again, anniversaries loom. The Communist Party is nervous.

This may seem odd. Since 1989 China has grown enormously in wealth and influence. The party is firmly in charge. Yet the security forces will be on full alert. Censors will work round the clock to scrub any unapproved references to the anniversaries. That will not be easy: the list of anniversaries that fall in years ending with 9, and that have sensitive connotations for the party, has grown. At its top is the date of the bloody suppression of the pro-democracy protests in 1989 that were the culmination of that heady mood three decades ago.

As in 1989, it will not be easy for the censors to ensure political conformity. That is because some of the anniversaries are ones that the party itself likes to commemorate, so it cannot simply ban all mentions of them. Take May Fourth. That day in 2019 will mark 100 years since the student movement that led to the party’s founding in 1921—much, then, for the party to celebrate. But in 1989 the 70th anniversary of the May Fourth Movement was a huge inspiration to the protesters in Tiananmen Square. They described themselves, not the party, as the true inheritors of the patriotic and pro-reform spirit of the students in 1919. There is little sign of campus unrest today. But China’s leaders know that moods can be fickle. In 1988 Chinese dissidents lamented that students seemed more interested in playing mah-jong than in politics. How wrong they were.

The 70th anniversary on October 1st of the founding of the People’s Republic will be another occasion that the party and the public could interpret in different ways. Early in 1989 Fang Lizhi, a prominent Chinese dissident (who died in exile in 2012), wrote that the anniversaries that year on May 4th and October 1st would be “eloquent symbols of China’s hope and despair” that would show how the “naive sincerity” of Chinese people at the start of Communist rule in 1949 had been “betrayed”. Few Chinese would put it so starkly now. Many express pride in their country’s growing international clout. But in regions populated by ethnic minorities, October 1st will be less of an occasion for cheer.

Security will be intense across Tibet and Xinjiang to prevent those who chafe at Chinese rule from expressing their discontent. In March it will be 30 years since the imposition of martial law in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, after riots triggered by the anniversary of the uprising in 1959 that prompted the Dalai Lama to flee to India. Expect the 60th anniversary in 2019 of the Tibetan leader’s exile to be tense.

Perennial paranoia

As usual, censors will erase almost any mention of the Tiananmen Square protests, the 30th anniversary of the crushing of which falls on June 4th. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has shown no interest in reviving any memories of that regime-threatening episode. For all his swagger on the world stage, Mr Xi acts at home as if the party is still in danger. He has presided over a sweeping clampdown on civil society with the arrests of many lawyers, ngo workers and rights activists. “Colour revolutions” that have toppled other authoritarian regimes appear to haunt him. He has shown no inclination to ease the brutal campaign, launched in July 1999, to eradicate Falun Gong, a quasi-Buddhist sect that once had millions of followers. Attempts to mark this date by the faith’s diehard adherents in China (and supporters abroad) will add to Mr Xi’s anniversary woes.

Especially in a year so resounding with historical echoes, Mr Xi will do nothing in 2019 to relax his vice-like controls. Instead, as a trade war rages with America, he will redouble his efforts to prevent unrest at home. He well knows that dissidents in China have long used patriotism as a cloak for attacking the establishment, as protesters did in both 1919 and 1989. So the party will be on guard lest public anger with America turn against Mr Xi and the party itself.

Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prem » 16 Dec 2018 02:51

https://breakingdefense.com/2018/12/the ... ides-trap/
The US & China: A Colder Peace or Thucydides’ Trap?
During a briefing for officers from the 10-country Association of South East Asian Nations, the chief of China’s Southern Theater Command presented a map including the “nine-dash line” border long used by Beijing to claim dominion over nearly the entire South China Sea — claims the ASEAN members do not recognize. Despite an international tribunal declaring in 2016 that the nine-dash demarcation had “no legal basis” in international law, the Chinese official insisted to his ASEAN counterparts not only that the 9-dash line delineated Chinese sovereignty, but that as head of Southern Theater Command, he was responsible for enforcing those boundaries. According to U.S. officials, the ASEAN naval leaders were outraged — though not surprised — by what seemed like a deliberately insulting provocation by the Chinese.Back in 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping tried to calm regional nerves by publicly promising not to “militarize” the man-made islands. The PRC says it’s militarizing these islands in order to defend Chinese ‘sovereignty,’ but in doing so they are violating the sovereignty of every other nation to fly, sail, trade and operate in accordance with international law.[b]”China is looking to change the world order to one in which national power is more important than international law, reflecting a system in which ‘the strong do what they will, and the weak do what they must,’” said Davidson, quoting the ancient historian Thucydides.
Benefiting from other countries’ free markets has not stopped China from launching a 10-year plan to use government subsidies, state-controlled firms, and “military-civil fusion” between the armed forces and private companies to pursue dominance in high-tech sectors from electric cars to artificial intelligence. Entering the global economy has not stopped China from exercising “debt diplomacy” with its “One Belt, One Road” project, loaning hundreds of billions of dollars to often corrupt government officials in underdeveloped nations in order to bind them to Beijing. Exposure to liberal values has not stopped President Xi Jinping from centralizing power, extending his term of office, or — in an alarming echo of the Cultural Revolution — interning a reported one million Muslim Uighurs and other minorities in “re-education camps.”
Nor can Chinese pledges of restraint be relied upon. For instance, after promising the Obama administration to cease and desist an extensive hacking campaign to steal technological secrets from U.S. corporations, China has reportedly started up again.
For their part, Chinese officials openly express their dissatisfaction with the current international order, which they say favors values and interests of the United States and its allies, while overly constraining a newly rising power like China.Chinese officials and advocates point out that as the lone superpower in a post-Cold War international order, the United States itself has flouted international rules and norms when it suited its interests. The United States and NATO engaged in military operations in Serbia and Libya, for instance, without the backing of the United Nations, where China has a permanent seat on the Security Council and a veto. Likewise, the United States bypassed both the United Nations and NATO in invading Iraq in 2003 with just a “coalition of the willing.”The other side of this Chinese narrative is the strong conviction that after two long and expensive wars and a global financial meltdown with its origins on Wall Street, the United States and the Western democratic model that it represents are in irreversible decline.After the 2008 financial crisis China started adopting a much more assertive posture based, as is so often the case throughout history, on a mixture of hubris and fear, ambition and anxiety,” said Princeton scholar Aaron Friedberg, author of A Contest for Supremacy: China, America and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia.In the short term, Chinese leaders worried about their ability to maintain political control in a major economic downturn. “But after China emerged from the crisis more rapidly than the United States and its allies, the mask.National Security Strategy explicitly states that the United States is seeking equilibrium that makes it impossible for any one country to dominate Asia, and that is already happening today,” Ratner said. “Rather, this permissive environment that the United States has allowed to form in the South China Sea is encouraging China to further impose its will in the region, radically increasing the likelihood of conflict down the road when the stakes will be even higher.”Stapleton Roy, a former U.S. ambassador to China, believes the goal of a revitalized strategy of realistic engagement with China should be an equilibrium that blocks Beijing’s military domination of Asia, curbs China’s worst mercantilist policies, and concedes that outside forces have rarely been able to change the domestic policies of great powers. With the United States still possessing the world’s most powerful military and innovative economy, he said, that should still be well within our reach.
“But don’t underestimate the challenge,” Roy said at CSIS. “China is eager to step into the global leadership role that the United States has largely abandoned, and it’s outspending us in every sphere of power. The harsh reality is the United States poorly used its post-Cold War period of dominance with conflicts in the Middle East and the Great Recession straining our resources and polarizing our politics. Clearly U.S.-China relations should now be at the center of our foreign policy concerns, and handled with great creativity. So far we are not passing that test.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Singha » 16 Dec 2018 13:55

CNN

Telecommunications firm Orange has ruled out using Huawei products in its core 5G network in France, and Germany's Deutsche Telekom says it's reviewing purchases of Huawei equipment.

,,,

The announcement from Deutsche Telekom — coupled with news from SoftBank this week that it might also drop Huawei equipment — could also factor into the pending merger between T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint (S). Deutsche Telekom is majority owner of T-Mobile while Softbank owns Sprint.
Reuters reported Friday that the deal between the two US phone companies could now get approval from federal regulators who vet deals for national security risks. According to Reuters, the use of Huawei equipment has been part of the review.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby hnair » 18 Dec 2018 08:05

ASPI has a good report of concentration camps run by Chinese govt.

Two of the 28 Uighur Concentration Camps that China operates (from this article):

1) Uighur Concentration Camp - Khasgar

(This one is huge and is in Khasgar proper vicariously called )


2) Uighur Concentration Camp - Artux, North-East of Khasgar, over the ridge
39°38'34.9"N 75°59'38.1"E
Artux, Kizilsu, Xinjiang, China

Image
(This image is old - there is a sprawling bunch of newer detention center buildings that came up since 2016. There is another camp-like facility close by)

The Chinese government last month launched what it calls a “vocational education and training program” to assist residents with a poor command of the national language and limited educational opportunities.

“Its purpose is to get rid of the environment and soil that breeds terrorism and religious extremism and stop violent terrorist activities from happening,” said Shohrat Zakir, chairman of the Xinjiang government, in an interview with China’s official news agency Xinhua.

The program, he said, targeted petty criminals who were given free food and board over the duration of their training. :rotfl: a few hundred-thousand petty criminals exist in Xinjiang...

The Chinese government’s publicity blitz also included a 15-minute report on state television which showed Uighur detainees in the Hotan City Vocational Skills Education and Training Centre attending legal classes, participating in games and social activities and undertaking training in garment manufacturing and woodwork.

“It’s a crass propaganda video that anyone who knows Xinjiang would not find credible,” said Dr James Leibold, an associate professor in politics and Asian studies at La Trobe University.

After years of frustration in winning the hearts and minds of disaffected ethnic groups, Dr Leibold believes Beijing has ditched its multicultural approach in favour of cultural “mingling”, or assimilation.

The prevailing party ideology dictates that social harmony can only be achieved with the “standardisation of human behaviour”.


There is no info about torture, human experimentation and slave labour that must be happening here. Because of possible disruptions to American supermarket supply chains, a vast network of concentration camps are being kept from media scrutiny.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 18 Dec 2018 10:34

Nothing neutering or defanging about the below news.

Huawei, a global headache, enters 5G trials in India - ToI
Amid concerns in the western world about operations of Chinese telecom giant Huawei, the company has been allowed by India to participate in 5G trials {Huawei is keen on trials in Delhi}, a sign of the new atmosphere of political goodwill between the two neighbours' leadership.

When the government initially sent out invites to global 5G majors, Chinese firms Huawei or ZTE were not invited. It took a protest by Huawei, which has established a big centre in India, for the government to relent {Invitation extended only in first week of October}. ZTE, though, didn't receive any invitation.

In an invitation to Huawei, the telecom secretary asked it to participate in the trials, and even complimented it for developing the telecom sector in India.{Post Wuhan bonhomie?} The others invited are Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung, all of whom have started making presentations to the government.

Meng Wanzhou, Huawei's chief financial officer and daughter of the founder, awaits extradition to the US by Canada on charges of fraud and her company's alleged links to a firm that tried to sell equipment to Iran despite sanctions. It has brought into sharper focus the growing digital divide where commercial, technological and security concerns are intertwined.

The real issue is Huawei's close connections to the Chinese military complex. Given that China is India's biggest strategic challenge, the government's decision to allow Huawei to take pole position in India's 5G ecosystems may have geopolitical implications as well, sources said.

The US recently asked its treaty allies and other close partners to refrain from using Huawei in their systems. The 'Five Eyes' - US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand - joined in to restrict Huawei's presence in their 5G systems {Canada has not banned Huawei in 5G technologies, not so far at least}. Germany and other European powers have issued their own restrictions on Chinese tech investments. It is likely that Japan, a close US ally, would follow suit.

A Huawei statement said: "As a leading global supplier of telecoms equipment, we remain committed to developing trusted and secure solutions for our customers. We continue to receive full support from the Government and industry partners alike. Having a proven track record of doing business in the country, we continue to work closely with Government of India and other industry stakeholders."

India hasn't articulated its security concerns, but sources say there's an unwritten rule against Chinese investments in sectors which could soon be labelled 'critical infrastructure'. The government has set up a high-level 5G forum, which includes secretaries from telecom, science & technology, electronics & IT besides some experts.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Prasad » 18 Dec 2018 15:09

One would think Indias next gen telecom networks would be one of those critical sectors. Remember, Huawei has run trials earlier too with Airtel..

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rgosain » 18 Dec 2018 16:30

Two weeks I made this quote
rgosain wrote:The 5-eyes nations and the EU together with the Japanese have banned Huawei, zte and other Chinese telecom firms from operating networks or 5G platforms that can be compromised or become a security risk.
Since the PRC has taken it upon itself to continue the non-proliferation campaign against india that was started by the US back in the 1970s, India should link market access by PRC telecom firms with membership of the NSG of which china is the main opposition.


When it comes to issues of security, data protection India suffers from naivete and a stockholm complex. Western companies who do billions of dollars of outsourcing work with Indian companies from drug discovery to avionics engineering, will expect that the networks upon which these businesses depend, are secure and are not connected to the PRC. Their Governments and citizens will put India's feet to the flame if key data or information is compromised because the GOI wants to play nice with china.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ArjunPandit » 18 Dec 2018 17:09

^^i am thinking of a change.org campaign to ban huawei from indian 5g trials, while the bus may have long passed but still no harm in trying. Will launch this friday

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rgosain » 18 Dec 2018 17:14

Commercially India is the loser if it is unable to guarantee a network's security. A few UK companies that do computational screening with Indian cos are unwilling to have their compound libraries siphoned off by Huawei

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 18 Dec 2018 17:27

ArjunPandit wrote:Will launch this friday

Let everyone here know to sign it. Tks.


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