Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby yensoy » 26 Jul 2020 00:30

abhik wrote:
Philip wrote:China has through the BRI infra hugely reduced its % of trade and energy that transits the IOR.The land road/ rail route through Central Asia,Russia,etc.with mega container trains is moving its goods faster into Europe than by sea. But not everything can be moved by sea,larger heavy machinery,etc. like gantry cranes which we' ve ordered for Chahbahar,yet to arrive ,delayed by a rew years tx . to US sanctions.We have to plan judiciously multiple maritime strike/ sieze ops in the IOR to mirror their invasive attitude on the LAC.

Any sources with actual numbers to back this claim? Only thing I have read was that the train route was completely uneconomical, and little used.

Apparently it is used, see https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2020/04/07/china-europe-trains-see-record-figures-despite-corona-crisis/?gdpr=accept. I am sure this is more expensive than ship but the transit time is shorter, so on the price vs time chart it provides yet another point besides ship and plane which could be a great thing - for instance - for "fast fashion". Over a quarter about 16 cargo ship worth of cargo was transported (8 ship worth if you count to and fro journeys) so it's not huge from a volume point of view - however there are 10+ trains each way per day (in an earlier article I recall it said 18 services per day). This could scale up to 40 trips per day in each direction in my opinion but unlikely it can be higher than that.

Do remember that goods have to be transshipped across rail gauges in former soviet union. China could very well fund dual gauge operation, or an entirely new standard gauge line which would further reduce transit time by a day or two.

The other thing the Chinese are trying is the "northwest passage" or arctic route to Europe. This will happen eventually as the ice melts.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby kumarn » 26 Jul 2020 00:47

https://gnews.org/257994/

Interesting article. Seems like there is reassessment going on in Beijing on their overreach and on their strategic choices.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby fanne » 26 Jul 2020 00:57

good post

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby fanne » 26 Jul 2020 00:57

Suraj wrote:I think events from two generations ago are not very useful as a template to understand current policy . Yes there are homilies like ‘those who forget history ...’ ..


good post

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 26 Jul 2020 02:34

x post
-----------------

https://stratnewsglobal.com/india-u-s-s ... elligence/
India, U.S. Speed Up Key Deal On Geospatial Intelligence
This month both sides revived interest in signing BECA as soon as possible. India’s defence and external affairs ministries are said to be in consultations over the draft of the India-specific BECA agreement after Washington expressed the desire to conclude it before the U.S. Presidential elections in November.

As already reported, U.S. military satellites have provided India with detailed intelligence of Chinese PLA movement and deployments during the current standoff along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh.

The conclusion of BECA would allow India to access a range of topographical, nautical and aeronautical data, engage in subject matter expert exchanges and receive training at the U.S. National Geospatial Intelligence College, those in the know point out. This agreement permits Indian military to function on high-end secured and encrypted communication equipment that are installed on American platforms obtained by Indian armed forces. These platforms include C-130 J, C-17, P-8I aircraft, and Apache and Chinook helicopters. This facilitates greater interoperability between forces and military hardware of the two countries, and also possibly with other countries that operate on U.S.-origin platforms.

The agreement would envisage reciprocal exchange of data for defence, peacekeeping or humanitarian assistance without any payment of royalties or license fees and are designed to facilitate mutual technical assistance and joint gathering of data (including hydrographic data in unchartered waters via surveys).

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 26 Jul 2020 06:29

FBI warns US companies about Chinese tax software embedded with hidden malware: Report

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-warns-us ... 13277.html

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ricky_v » 26 Jul 2020 09:02

https://twitter.com/TruthAbtChina/status/1287184368486817793
CONFIRMED: The CCP put up posters in Beijing instructing people to go to underground bunkers if the alarm goes off signaling they are at war.

The poster reads: "How to quickly enter the wartime civil air defense facility after you hear the alarm"

July 25th, 2020

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 26 Jul 2020 09:39

Why we should fight now instead of engaging in a bout of infrastructure building competition with them along the LAC. We will win in a kinetic contest we won't in one that depends on treasure and production to crisscross harsh terrain with engineering.

Raghav Bahl's remarkable Superpower? The Amazing Race Between China’s Hare and India’s Tortoise (Penguin Allen Lane, 2010) gave us the hope a decade ago that we were only a decade behind Cheen and that the gap will only decrease.

Now that a decade has passed and we are not a decade behind anymore. We are a decade and a HALF behind now.

The gap didn't decrease but increased with all that portends. We can see it with the numbers of planes and ships they spit out every year versus ours.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/how-india-beat-china-in-a-college-whatsapp-group-of-economists


One of the remarkable points I had noted was how India was “merely lagging China by a decade”. To amplify, China had become a trillion-dollar economy in 1998, and India hit that mark in 2007. Even more remarkably, India had begun to grow faster than China on a key parameter – remember, in those go-go years of high inflation and high growth, our nominal GDP was tearing away at 13-15 percent, while a debt-laden China was staring at single digits. My hypothesis was simple (and rather ‘simplistic’ in hindsight): India would reform aggressively to become productive, tame inflation, and streak ahead of China in real terms too.

However, that never happened. We never repaired banks’ balance sheets groaning under bad assets, hardly did anything to improve productivity, and got trapped in rent-seeking state policies.

So now, if we re-calibrate our ‘inter-se time lag’, China crossed $3 trillion in 2006, while we would have (without Covid-19) done it this year – unfortunately, the ‘mere one-decade lag’ has now become a ‘fifteen-year lead’ for China.


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 26 Jul 2020 12:00

We were lulled by a sense of complacency that precipitated kargil and now an almost similar set of circumstances in a different section of the border has resulted in the standoff at galwan because we bacame criminally complacent once again.

In a tv interview a few days ago, a former COAS said repeatedly that "we did not expect this" and "the PLA routinely carry out large scale exercises in this region every year during these months and we thought that it was being done again"

What exactly are our guys paid to expect if not deception and treachery by an enemy army clearly arrayed against us.

Is it too much to expect a dedicated MIL satellite positioned so as to watch constantly this particularly longish stretch of our national border.

or are we back in the foolish heydays days of Hindi cheeni bhai bhai V2.0 to explain away our failures once again.

Another weary "inquiry" committee will doubtlessly be setup to probe "intelligence" failures and their "report" will be routinely deep sixed as usual and as expected.

The much vaunted "china study group" and its very specific mandate of "close watch" on chinese activities was caught flatflooted because the sly chinese lulled us over the years by routinely conducting such exercises until, they were afforded a smokescreen by the pandemic and moved in smartly to precipitate a fait accompli.

Does no one see a well laid out plan in all this.

wherever babuz are involved, an internecine turf war breaks out immediately and without fail. It becomes a destructive pissing contest with each group, MEA, MOD and others micturating in great quantities to mark their "territory" as well as their primacy

Who exactly does the risk analysis at such white elephant organisations like the "china study group" and why is responsibility never fixed for the performance of specific duties. Why exactly would a "routine and yearly PLA exercise" remain unwatched because these exercises would perforce reflect changes from "lessons learned" from the previous year's exercise and it would have resulted in "corrective actions" being incorporated in the latest edition of such "routine" exercises.

when everyone is essentially watching everyone else the world over, why would we take our eyes off and become complacent to the extent of being foolishly unaware by not closely watching massed troop movements by an army which was very obviously practicing their moves against our Indian Army and that too on our very doorstep as it were.



Repeated intelligence failures: Time to worry




Repeated intelligence failures: Time to worry

Shiv Kunal Verma
July 25, 2020,



Keep an eye on the developments in what is known as the ‘Central Sector’ where initial though yet to be officially confirmed reports coming in suggest that the Chinese have increased their activity in the area opposite Chitkul in Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh.


The mother of all pandemics notwithstanding, it is fairly obvious that China had put into place the plans to take on India quite some time ago. What is also becoming obvious with every passing day is that on the Indian side, despite having a plethora of intelligence agencies, the entire establishment has been caught not just napping, but are so badly compromised by their failure, they have no choice but to further cover up by creating more and more smoke in the hope their little empires do not sink. For those in the know, who have been warning that the rot is extremely deep, all they can do is despair at the state of affairs as the pigeons come home to roost.

Keep an eye on the developments in what is known as the “Central Sector” where initial though yet to be officially confirmed reports coming in suggest that the Chinese have increased their activity in the area opposite Chitkul in Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. As the crow flies, this is not very far from Nelang, the border post north of Harsil in Uttarakhand. Even though the frontier in these areas is demarcated and the international boundaries are well defined, Xi Jinping seems intent on testing the Indians along the entire 3,500 km border. The scale of operations today is much larger, but the pattern being followed seems to be exactly the same as what the Chinese had done in the pre-1962 build up.

The Kargil War in 1999 was labelled as an “intelligence failure” and reams and reams were subsequently written on how so-and-so warned this one, and that one warned these ones, but those who mattered failed to join the dots until one fine morning, using Indian cement bought from Indian companies in Indian markets, Pakistani sangars and bunkers were ready and their occupants were ready to cock a snook at the Indian Army. A couple of months later after it was realised that the heights around Drass, Kargil and Batalik had indeed been occupied, with more than 500 officers and men killed on the Indian side, the surviving intruders mainly from the Northern Light Infantry, were forced to withdraw across the LOC. India rejoiced. It had won the limited war. We buried the Pakistani dead, returned their eight prisoners and appointed a committee to see what had gone wrong. The two words “intelligence failure” kept cropping up with regular frequency, there were some more debates, a few editorials lamenting the fact that the committee’s recommendations were not being implemented, and then it was life as usual.

Post-Kargil there were strategic changes on the Indian side—an area that was earlier held by 121 Independent Brigade now became the responsibility of XIV Corps. The then Home Minister, who was also the deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani, headed a Cabinet Group of Ministers who investigated intelligence lapses during the Kargil War and on their recommendation a comprehensive reform of intelligence agencies was undertaken. Accordingly, the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) was created and formally became operational in March 2002. The DIA was to henceforth coordinate with all the three intelligence wings of the Army, Air Force and Navy, and in one of those periodic nods given to “jointmanship” in the armed forces, the director general’s post was to be held in rotation between the three armed services. However, since its inception, owing to other reasons, it has only had DGs from the Army.

DIA, which directly came under the Ministry of Defence, was to coordinate further with the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) and the National Investigation Agency (NIA). Small matter that in addition to these organisations, others involved in the business of gathering both internal and external intelligence include the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which, apart from functioning as an investigating agency, also gathers intelligence and acts as a liaison with Interpol; the Aviation Research Centre (ARC) under whom come aerial surveillance and reconnaissance flights (PHOTINT), imagery intelligence (IMINT), and signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations; the Shimla-based All India Radio Monitoring Service (ATRMS); the Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB); and many, many more. If they were to be listed, it would make India not only sound like an extreme police state, it would seem even a mouse could not find a mate without a file being opened on it.

In this complex labyrinth, if we were to further get into who reports to who, which group is responsible for what, it would perhaps require a super computer to decipher the complex maze and even then you would only have part of the story. This huge mammoth network—incidentally, state governments have their own complex bodies—though undoubtedly “understaffed and over worked”, invariably fails to pick up tell-tale signs and like the police in Bollywood movies of yore, always is the last to arrive on the scene. On the western front, the sea-borne Mumbai attack was a classic case and now, across the high Himalayas, with all the eyes supposedly pouring over satellite images, maps, photos, the entire Chinese build-up in Ladakh was missed, or perhaps more accurately, not interpreted correctly. In this Alice in Wonderland scenario, what a pity there is no Queen of Hearts to declare “off with their heads”!

Far from it—the magical maze ensures there is actually very little responsibility, and as we move up the narrow funnel to the top, it becomes even more critical for those in power to cover-up for their blunders. In a scenario where the “border management” is with the Ministry of Home—the Border Security Force (BSF) is responsible for the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders; the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) looks after China; the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) with 73 battalions looks after Nepal and Bhutan and the Assam Rifles is deployed in the Northeast where it keeps an eye on the Myanmar border as well without actually guarding it per se. Technically, all come under the operational command of the Army “when and if”, but it is common knowledge that all is not well in this marriage as well. Fortunately, the hair-brained proposal to merge the Assam Rifles, perhaps one of the best para-military organisations in the world, with the ITBP has been shelved for the time being. Given the way turf wars play out, it will be revived sooner or later yet again.

Maybe there are valid and straight forward answers to these questions if they are asked, but surely apart from the movement of three Chinese divisions for the purported high altitude exercises, someone, somewhere would have noticed the additional stocking up that was required to sustain these troops for a longer period of time. A back of the envelope calculation would suggest upward of 3 lakh tons of material just to create the infrastructure. And let us face it, unlike our boys in the paramilitary and even in the Army, who are often moved and expected to “fight with what they have”, the Chinese, be it their accommodation, vehicles, winter clothing etc., are not exactly following our standards when it comes to defining the “happiness quotient”.

Unfortunately, in covering up for this big failure, and combined with the need to always appear on top of the other side, transparency went out of the window, opening the doors for what the Chinese have also perfected—the weaponization of dissent. This cacophony of defence experts and defence analysts who took over the print media and the airwaves to demolish whatever little credibility the government had, was nothing new. In the pre-1962 build up, though thankfully television was not there, the Chinese had worked the media in a manner where a sizeable population of India was festooning the complex path of international diplomacy with land mines. Nehru’s comment “that we shall throw the Chinese out” at the airport as he left for Sri Lanka just before the conflict, was then used by the PRC as a virtual declaration of war.

We can sigh, roll the eyes and say, as we repeatedly do, that these are the pitfalls of “democracy”, but we are playing with fire. The fact of the matter is that in 2012, in what one can only describe as some bizarre decisions, it was decided that the Armed Forces would hitherto only be entrusted with human intelligence (HUMINT) and all technical intelligence (TECHINT) would be the responsibility of other agencies. The one agency set up as an ad hoc unit after it was realised that there was no covert capability to strike back at Pakistan after the Mumbai attack, the much-maligned Technical Services Division (TSD), was amazingly declared a “rogue organisation” and it was disbanded by the very people it was serving.

The TSD was exposed in the media in an orchestrated manner by vested interests at the very top within the Army, but its demise also suited many others who despite operating with humungous budgets were falling short on results that were being put on the table by this small band of officers and men. Forget about RAW and IB, who on their official web page very rightly say their budgets “are classified”, the DIA and NTRO are packed with officers—quite a few re-employed—who have done some “imagery course” and for whom these tenures are “Dilli ki posting” where it is a nine-to-five job during which time their own post-retirement life takes precedence over everything else. I am not echoing some disgruntled voices, but one hears this lament repeatedly by those who are in the know. If it is letting out a national classified secret, well, so be it.

CHINESE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WINTER

It should be pretty obvious by now that whatever the outcome of the disengagement talks, the Chinese are going to stay in Eastern Ladakh through the winter, which will throw up its own challenges. The gradual expansion of probes will continue, be it Himachal, Garhwal, Kumaon, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan or Arunachal. The reiteration of their claim on Eastern Bhutan, and the chances of them following exactly the same pattern of aggression as in 1962 make the entire border from the Karakoram Pass in the west to Kibithoo in the east a burning hot potato (which is ironical, given the freezing temperatures across this entire zone).

How much time India has before something gives on the border a la Galwan, no one can tell, but there are immediate areas of concern that need to be addressed by the one man who today calls the shots, hopefully even if it concerns those in his immediate decision-making circle. Repeated intelligence failures cannot be swept under the carpet, and accountability has to be demanded.

On the ground, today we have three different Army commanders dealing with the Chinese, plus three Air Force commands, and various para-military headquarters each with their own pulls and pressures. In addition, we have two other countries that are also involved in the standoff. It is imperative that the flow of information is seamless and all differences sorted out. Enough studies and papers have been written on integrated command systems and though the fault-lines have been created over the years, it is now imperative that every resource is brought to bear in an optimal manner to counter the growing threat from the Chinese dragon by tackling these issues.

When he was the Home Minister, P Chidambaram had set up the Multi Agency Centre (MAC), wherein representatives of all intelligence agencies met on a daily basis to share information, but this was more or less entirely terrorism-centric. In fact, the NATGRID had been created that allowed for information to be shared on a real time basis, but then again, in a strange quirk of inverted logic, in the latter half of 2012 it was decided to take the Army out of this loop. With the growing multi-dimensional threat emerging from not only China but Pakistan also, these anomalies have to be corrected. We have to remember that once milk spills out of the bottle, there is no way one can put it back again.

Shiv Kunal Verma is the author of the highly acclaimed 1962: The War That Wasn’t and The Long Road to Siachen: The Question Why.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rsingh » 26 Jul 2020 12:09

ricky_v wrote:https://twitter.com/TruthAbtChina/status/1287184368486817793
CONFIRMED: The CCP put up posters in Beijing instructing people to go to underground bunkers if the alarm goes off signaling they are at war.

The poster reads: "How to quickly enter the wartime civil air defense facility after you hear the alarm"

July 25th, 2020


It seems they are doing such drills every now and then. I wonder if Delhi Metro and metro lines could be used for such an emergency? Here is sample of local paper reporting about civil defence exercise.


At 10 a.m. on May 12th, Hangzhou test sounded air defense and disaster prevention audio alarm
2020-05-09 07:09:45 Hangzhou Net

The Metropolis Express yesterday, the Hangzhou Municipal People’s Government issued the "Announcement on Trial Sounding of Air Defense and Disaster Prevention Sound Alarms"——

In order to maintain the sensitivity and effectiveness of air defense and disaster prevention warnings, the people's concept of national defense in the city will be enhanced. According to Article 20 of the "Administrative Measures for Civil Air Defense Warning Facilities of Zhejiang Province", it is scheduled to conduct air defense and disaster prevention audio alarms in the city from 10:00 am to 10:44 am on May 12, 2020 (Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Day) Try it out.

Trial time and signal

(1) Air defense alarm:

1.10:00 to 10:03

Trial sound pre-alarm. The signal is: beep for 36 seconds, stop for 24 seconds, repeat 3 times, for 3 minutes.

2.10:10 to 10:13

Try to sound an air raid alert. The signal is: beep for 6 seconds, stop for 6 seconds, repeat 15 times, for 3 minutes.

3.10:20 to 10:23

Trial sound to clear the alarm. The signal is: continuous buzzing for 3 minutes.

(2) Disaster prevention warning:

1.10:30 to 10:33

Try to sound the disaster prevention alarm. The signal is: beep for 60 seconds, stop for 30 seconds, repeat twice, for 3 minutes.

2.10:40 to 10:44

Trial sounding of the disaster prevention alarm. The signal is: continuous buzzing for 4 minutes.

During the trial period of the alarm, the Municipal Civil Defense Office (Civil Defense Bureau) will issue real-time air defense and disaster prevention warning signals on Hangzhou TV Comprehensive Channel (HTV-1) and Hangzhou People’s Broadcasting Station (FM 89). China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom will issue air defense and disaster prevention warning messages to some mobile phone users in Hangzhou. The production, life and all social activities of the people in the city continue as usual.

How did the air defense alarm that resounded through the sky sounded

When did the alarm sound? How does it work? How to make the sirens spread all over Hangzhou? These issues are quite mysterious to ordinary people.

The staff of the Hangzhou Civil Air Defense Office first revealed the alarm for us.

The sounding principle of the siren is similar to that of a diabolo. The internal gear rotates to drive the beeper to compress the surrounding air. The compressed air is continuously squeezed into the dense sound window, thus emitting a low sound like a bee.

Air defense alarm usually uses a combination of existing and wireless methods to control the issuance of air defense alarm signals. The control equipment is divided into two types: wired control and wireless control. The power supply system is divided into two types: city power supply and self-powered.

The main types of alarm facilities currently include: electric alarms, electro-acoustic alarms, multimedia alarm terminals, and motorized alarm vehicles. The reason why the air defense sirens can be heard clearly in every corner of the city is the result of the joint action of multiple sirens.

Generally speaking, in the main urban area with dense urban buildings, a high-power alarm such as 2000 watts has an effective transmission distance of 600-700 meters in radius. Draw a circle with the siren as the center. Exceeding the circle range means that the sound of the siren may not be heard, and another set must be installed. According to this distance, the civil air defense department arranges and sets up the alarm. However, in order to ensure the effect of transmission, the civil air defense department will often adopt a "cross-stack" to strengthen the arrangement.

However, the exact "coordinates" of the alarm are classified. In wartime, this is one of the important tools to ensure the safety of people’s lives and property, so you can’t “disclose your identity” casually.

In addition to fixed alarms, there are also mobile alarm vehicles. In some places, urban construction has not yet been completed; in some places, although there are fixed alarms, but there are many people and high noise, mobile alarm vehicles are needed to increase the alarm effect.

At present, the transmission rate of sirens in Hangzhou basically covers all the main urban areas, as well as Zhuantang, Xianlin, and Mid-levels. The urban areas of Xiaoshan, Yuhang, Binjiang, Fuyang, Lin'an, Jiande and Tonglu are also basically covered. The coverage rate exceeds 90%.

But if you are in a noisy room such as a subway or a shopping mall, you may not hear the alarm. The Municipal Civil Defense Office stated that they are gradually eliminating these "blind spots" in the alarm.

Source: City Express Author: Reporter Yue Yan Editor: Zheng Haiyun Editor: Fong Chi Wah

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby abhik » 26 Jul 2020 12:13

chola wrote:Why we should fight now instead of engaging in a bout of infrastructure building competition with them along the LAC. We will win in a kinetic contest we won't in one that depends on treasure and production to crisscross harsh terrain with engineering.

Raghav Bahl's remarkable Superpower? The Amazing Race Between China’s Hare and India’s Tortoise (Penguin Allen Lane, 2010) gave us the hope a decade ago that we were only a decade behind Cheen and that the gap will only decrease.

Now that a decade has passed and we are not a decade behind anymore. We are a decade and a HALF behind now.

The gap didn't decrease but increased with all that portends. We can see it with the numbers of planes and ships they spit out every year versus ours.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/how-india-beat-china-in-a-college-whatsapp-group-of-economists


One of the remarkable points I had noted was how India was “merely lagging China by a decade”. To amplify, China had become a trillion-dollar economy in 1998, and India hit that mark in 2007. Even more remarkably, India had begun to grow faster than China on a key parameter – remember, in those go-go years of high inflation and high growth, our nominal GDP was tearing away at 13-15 percent, while a debt-laden China was staring at single digits. My hypothesis was simple (and rather ‘simplistic’ in hindsight): India would reform aggressively to become productive, tame inflation, and streak ahead of China in real terms too.

However, that never happened. We never repaired banks’ balance sheets groaning under bad assets, hardly did anything to improve productivity, and got trapped in rent-seeking state policies.

So now, if we re-calibrate our ‘inter-se time lag’, China crossed $3 trillion in 2006, while we would have (without Covid-19) done it this year – unfortunately, the ‘mere one-decade lag’ has now become a ‘fifteen-year lead’ for China.


We take the most optimistic outlook of own future and pessimistic view of China's current capabilities (we are not ready to even think about their future). It's the same for mil arena too, with folks here wanting to kick the can down the road - of course we will go back into a stupor as soon as the immediate threat has subsided.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 26 Jul 2020 12:21

Singapore man admits being Chinese spy in US

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53534941

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby darshan » 26 Jul 2020 15:58

IIRC, UPA in 2005 had started scaling back and cancelling weapon acquisitions especially china specific ones. Shouldn't that have been a clue for NDA about what needs to done upon returning to power and that there's no time to catch up against chinese? One didn't need a picture of MoU signing by RaGaXi or Chinese to show up at galwan to be ready for chinese.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby M_Joshi » 26 Jul 2020 18:59

Image

$1.6T in century-old Chinese bonds offer Trump unique leverage against Beijing

The Lewisburg, Tennessee-based American Bondholder Foundation holds $1.6 trillion of century-old Chinese debt, including interest, dating to before the founding of the communist People’s Republic of China, that it wants the administration's help in redeeming. There is an estimated $6 trillion or more of the debt outstanding worldwide.

The bonds were issued by the Republic of China -- which ousted the imperial government in a coup -- as far back as 1912 and backed by gold; they were defaulted on in 1938. The ROC government fled to Taiwan, where it remains the official ruling body, after Mao Zedong’s communist party took over following the 1949 end of the revolution.

Beijing maintains Taiwan is part of China, and under international law, successor governments are responsible for the debts of their predecessors.
:rotfl:

President Trump is a “'promises made, promises kept' president, and he said to my face that he was going to do this transaction, do this deal, and hold China accountable,” Jonna Bianco, president and chairwoman of the American Bondholder Foundation, told FOX Business.

There's international precedent for such a move: Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher ordered Beijing in 1987 to make good on the bonds owned by Brits or lose access to the British capital markets. Then-Chinese President Li Xiannian’s government obliged, reaching a settlement of 23.5 million British pounds.

Bianco, who met with Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about the matter in 2018 while the U.S. and China were negotiating a phase one trade deal, said the U.S. Treasury could take the bonds in and use them to offset the nation’s debt with China.


Though it's implausible that China will honour or even consider its debt, but it's a big stick Trump can use to beat China come November. Will be a good example to BRI partners to show how China responds to other countries when debt is not in their favour or other countries can refuse to payback BRI loans citing this example.
Last edited by M_Joshi on 26 Jul 2020 19:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby darshan » 26 Jul 2020 19:04

Also their fondness of using obscure historical items to claim rights to territories would come to of no use if they can't take responsibility of all that comes with history.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 26 Jul 2020 19:05

darshan wrote:IIRC, UPA in 2005 had started scaling back and cancelling weapon acquisitions especially china specific ones. Shouldn't that have been a clue for NDA about what needs to done upon returning to power and that there's no time to catch up against chinese? One didn't need a picture of MoU signing by RaGaXi or Chinese to show up at galwan to be ready for chinese.


the NDA has done some of what needed to be done and much more may be in the pipeline, given financial constraints of the growth slowdown imposed by global as well as local headwinds.

this MoU signing + RaGaXi matter is not closed, not by a long shot. The present events have their genesis circa 2014 or earlier. The repeated attempts over the years, by various chota mota politicos to grab many lootyens bungalows allotted to their dead fathers in the name of "memorials" was born in the way that the RGF went about its acquisitive ways

the RGF is a rather juicy lollipop, long in the public domain that was handed to the NDA and they have known about it for many years now. Besides all this, Suswami may have realized by now that he is perched on a two wheeler while the MAD team is astride a main battle tank that has the la donna a capo di tutti i capi and famiglia firmly in their sights.

Also, there is a clearly discernable pattern to the systematic unravelling of cancerous events past and pappu's increasingly demented rantings against Modi, which note btw, is not being echoed or pushed in the media by other congis, meaning that they may all have some inkling that something down the dark road ahead is lurking in wait for the eyetalian mafiosi.

let's hope that, after due process, citizenship is revoked where it can be, and as applicable, the needful imprisonment/deportation follows.
Last edited by chetak on 26 Jul 2020 19:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 26 Jul 2020 19:36

Reflections on China’s Need for a ‘Chinese World Order’ By Arthur Waldron

Arthur Waldron is a Senior Fellow in the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania. This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH on September 26, 2018.

Abstract: China’s existing political and economic structure is too weak to resist the stress of the globalization that is being imposed by the contemporary international trade and diplomatic regime. Left unchecked, the pressures of the global system would destroy much of China’s state-owned economy, which in turn is the foundation of the authority of the Chinese Communist Party, thus jeopardizing the continued existence of the present People’s Republic. Beijing faces a choice: either to reconstruct the system so as to make it robust enough to participate fully in the existing order, or to find ways to participate partially, choosing those aspects of the international system that are beneficial, while rejecting or avoiding those that are threatening. The first alternative endangers regime survival, so the second has been chosen.

The U.S. policy toward China, launched at the beginning of the 1970s, was built on a fundamental misconception: that the People’s Republic was, structurally, a modern country and would be able to slip easily into the world system were it not for disagreements about politics. The challenge was thus to establish contact with the rulers of the functional modern core of the People’s Republic, convince them that their political alignments were incorrect, and bring them to an international position where they belonged, effectively in alignment with the United States. Today, it is clear that no such modern core existed. This vacuum is the primary cause of China’s current hostility to the United States, as well as its unwillingness to abide by decisions of international organizations of which it is a full member. The best example of this unwillingness was Beijing’s rejection of the ruling of the International Arbitral Court in The Hague in July 2016, dismissing Chinese claims to the South China Sea.

Globalization has put intolerable pressure on Beijing’s policies both internally and externally. While China had grown economically, its fundamental modes of operation were in fact little changed since dynastic times. To put it bluntly, China had never modernized. Therefore, if a complete reconstruction of the system was ruled out, as the Chinese Communist Party has insisted, China must be insulated or perish.

Thus understood, China’s current military buildup, as well as its active search for friends and client states, does not have as its goal to rule the world or to displace the United States. Rather, Beijing seeks either to change the international system so that it can survive without changing, or to become strong enough to flout the rules of the existing world order with impunity. China, it turns out, cannot swim in the existing international sea.

International Community’s Reactions

The points made above frame this essay. The reader should be aware, however, that China’s new aggressiveness has elicited an unexpected reaction from the international community. Its neighbors have failed to acquiesce in China’s new expansiveness, as Beijing had confidently expected. Rather, they have begun arming themselves to resist. The worrying result for the Party is that it now finds itself virtually surrounded by countries either opposed to it.

Furthermore, the United States is greatly strengthening its Pacific presence. Britain and France have both sent warships to the region. A countervailing coalition is forming rapidly that, in sum, is incomparably stronger both militarily and economically than China alone. A real danger now exists that more Chinese expansion and militarization will lead not to hegemony, but rather to war. {This was written in Jan 2019} Beijing well knows war would be unimaginably destructive, not necessarily ending on success. Accordingly, voices are emerging within China in firm opposition to the clearly assertive polices, which bear the hallmark of current President Xi Jinping.

On September 16, 2018, the late Deng Xiaoping’s son, Pufang addressed the Chinese Disabled Persons’ Federation, making points clearly at odds with current policy. The 74-year Deng said, “We must seek truth from fact, keep a sober mind and know our own place. We should neither be overbearing or belittle ourselves.” Later in the speech, Deng urged China to embrace a “cooperative and win-win international environment. International uncertainties are on a rise. We should stick to the direction of peace and development and try to earn a cooperative and win-win international environment.” He said, “The most important thing at the moment is to properly address China’s own issues.”

Deng could have been channeling his father. Eminent economist Zhang Weiying was more direct, drawing an immediate line of cause and effect between China’s flawed economy, which needs protection, and the drift to hostility. Using the “China model” to explain the country’s economic success over the past four decades is wrong and dangerous, he argues, contending that this misconception inevitably has led to antagonism between China and the West. As reported in the South China Morning Post:Zhang, a professor at Peking University, made the comments in a lecture on October 14. An edited version of his speech was published on the university’s website. The speech is a wholesale negation of the ‘China model’ theory that has gained traction in recent years, as the country becomes more confident in promoting its own development path under President Xi Jinping.1

Zhang lashed out at those who attribute China’s economic growth to an exceptional “China model,” which includes a powerful one-party state, a colossal state sector and “wise” industrial policy, contending that it is not only factually wrong, but also detrimental to the country’s future. “The theory of the ‘China model’ sets China as a frightening anomaly from the Western perspective, and inevitably leads to confrontation between China and the West,” he added: The hostile international environment we face today is not irrelevant to the wrong interpretation of China’s achievement in the past 40 years by some economists. Blindly emphasizing the ‘China model’ would lead us onto a path of strengthening state-owned enterprises, expansion of state power and overly relying on industrial policy, which would lead to a reversal of reform progress, wasting previous reform efforts, and the eventual stagnation of economic growth.2

Taken together, these two commentaries constitute a complete repudiation of the policies now extolled by Beijing. In fact, they are the policies upon which Xi has staked his reputation. Although specific to the present moment, these speeches inevitably lead the historian to consider that the dilemmas expressed are not new. They can be found in much earlier periods of Chinese history.

Revisiting Traditional Northeast Asia

China’s current predicament brings to mind how international and domestic order were traditionally maintained in northeast Asia, not by conferences, alliances, diplomacy, and the like, but by the complete exclusion of foreign influences. This exclusion took the form of three similar systems: sakoku (㙐ᅜliterally “shackled country”) in Japan during the Tokugawa shogunate; swaegug (˲ܥ) in Korea, “the hermit kingdom”; and geliguojia (㝸㞳ᅧᐙ “separated country”) in China.

With effectively self-sufficient economies, the governments of all three historic states were more able to control their populations, who would not be influenced economically or intellectually, so it was thought, by exogenous factors. Furthermore, this construction meant that all three had to be “opened” by military pressure in the nineteenth century. Japan rapidly adjusted and quickly became a power that occupied Korea—which was slower to adapt—as a colony in 1910. China, after the brief wars of the nineteenth century that seemingly brought it into the world, struggled in the twentieth century to adjust. First, it needed to resist the Japanese, and now it resists the international order.

These facts have long been known, but also misunderstood. Precursors to the ideas underlying them can be traced far back in historical writing. In China the historical writing was the Classic of Documents (᭩⥂ , one of the Confucian classics. Taken together with later developments, they form the basis of the highly influential and much criticized idea of a “Chinese World Order”—which we shall see is both correct and misleading.

The concepts were reworked during the last century when China was taking stock of itself. The great scholar and diplomat Tsiang Tingfu (ⶩᘐ㰊 Jing Tíngfú, 1895-1965) was very significant in this undertaking. He was also an ambassador, foreign minister, and for a time, professor at first-rate Tsinghua University (Ύ⳹኱Ꮵ in Beijing. The university was privately founded in 1911 by Chinese philanthropists, but now is under state control. One of Tsiang’s most influential students was long-prominent Harvard professor John King Fairbank (1907-1991).

Fairbank worked with Chinese scholars to publish a series of articles on “The Chinese World Order,” also editing a book of the same title.3 Here he expounded his own reformulation of ideas then being developed in China. The fundamental concept was that diplomacy rested on other states accepting an inferior, “tributary” position with respect to China, the repository and arbiter of legitimacy. Periodically, these states would send delegations to present tribute (ධ(ᄎ) ru gong), which involved prostration in front of the Chinese emperor, conferral of calendars and legitimacy, and not least, bestowal of gifts.

This argument, and the series of English coinages such as “tribute system,” has elicited steady criticism ever since. Some experts claim that this imposed hierarchy was neither how diplomacy worked nor how the Chinese thought of themselves. Perhaps the most important example of this thinking has been the work of Professor Morris Rossabi (1941-) of Columbia University, whose edited volume, China Among Equals, is one of the most influential China books ever published.4

Few observers, including Fairbank himself, fully grasped the implications of the World Order system. Most felt it was a bit of obsolete chinoiserie. Now, modern China had learned the reality of the world, as Japan and Thailand—the other two never-colonized Asian states—had earlier, and with a few adjustments would fit into the international system. Space does not allow the listing of all the related books published with titles like China Takes Her Place or China Enters the World. We should note, though, that for China to enter the world successfully would have required thorough institutional reconstruction and modernization, comparable to that of Japan in the Meiji Restoration of 1868. Perhaps the idea, popular until recently, that Communism was itself an appropriate form of reconstruction, contributed to the misunderstanding.

China, however, proved more enigmatic than the optimistic assessments that Fairbank had presented, for example to President Richard Nixon and his collaborator Henry Kissinger. The eventual establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States took nearly a decade, requiring far greater linguistic gymnastics than even recognizing the Soviet Union in 1933. This difficulty was that the closing of the country system was not word play or cultural artifact that could be easily dispensed with. Instead, it described the fundamental economic structure of the Chinese state, as long imagined and as attempted by Communism.

Historiographical Fates

Before turning to the contemporary situation, a brief review of the history of these concepts, focusing on China, and their historiographical fates, is in order. The idea that China has a conception of world order different than, let us say, the Westphalian (1648), is found in history. The foundational classic, The idealized China of the Ming (1368-1644), attempted to embody it, as did the succeeding Qing (1644-1912). The idea has deep but tangled philosophical roots. The center has always been the axis of Chinese being and rule.

Thus, we find in Confucius that to rule by virtue is comparable to being the North Star: ᒃ඼఩⪋╓ᫍ౪அ (ju qi wei er Zhong xing gong zhih)The star stays in its place and the other stars move slowly around it, in a solemn circular motion. It does not wobble. The same or very similar idea is found in drawings of circles of central influence in the Classic of Documents. By Qing times, the name of the imperial palace (⣸⚗ᇛ zijingcheng) reflected this idea. The last two characters are clear enough: “forbidden city.” But the first, zi (⣸ is a problem. Usually, it refers to a vague range of purplish hues. But why should the palace, which is if anything red and yellow, be described as purple? The answer is that the character can also be used with reference to the North Star. A correct and much more understandable translation would be “Polar Forbidden City.” It is the place where the great axis of the cosmos begins its passage through earth. This is a most powerful statement.

The system, furthermore, was not simply abstract. It was accepted, or seemingly accepted, by many of China’s neighboring states. They and others regularly sent large delegations to the Chinese capital, which prostrated themselves before the Son of Heaven (ኳᏊ . These rituals were solemn and impressive, carried out at dawn, with hundreds of participants. They were duly recorded. They clearly meant something profound. The desire was to construct a hierarchical international system in Asia so opposed to the Westphalian concept of the equal sovereignty of all nations, and itself was “at the center.”

Enduring Attitudes

How, we should ask, could these attitudes from centuries ago persist to the present day? One reason is simply the belief, widely held among Chinese and foreigners alike, that China is somehow so different as to have its own unique economic system that would not work elsewhere. Another answer is that the communist and free-market systems both worked and that each could bring a society to economic modernity. There is also a third reason: sheer ignorance.

Consider the educations of China’s leaders. How many are aware of the speed with which much of the world recovered from World War II? Germany brought the “economic miracle” or wirtschaftwunder; Japan, which the United States had expected to be on food stamps forever, soared to a level of economic sophistication comparable or superior to that of any other country. Hong Kong grew richer than its imperial master: it built housing for millions of refugees without a penny from London. Taiwan prospered once Chiang Kai-shek installed new policies at the advice of the finest Chinese economists of the time. The process was analyzed by eminent economist Walter Galenson (1914-1999), in a series of studies beginning in 1979. Then, of course, came the others: Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and so forth. Are the Chinese political elite truly aware of what other countries had already achieved, more soundly, a good 20 years before the start of “reform and opening,” a meaningless slogan at best? I believe the answer is “no.”

Further complicating the situation is that China insists on reaching its goal of economic modernity, not the way other Asian have, but rather by one that it professes to have invented, but which is fundamentally unsound. The problem is that while today a Hong Kong or a Taiwan can do well even in the full blast of the international economy, the Chinese economy is organized differently. It cannot be a full player on the international field without undermining its own economy. Remember that China has no convertible currency, no market interest rates, and little in the way of private enterprise. Briefly stated, these are the reasons why China must have a world order congenial to its unique system. Confrontation with true globalization would remodel it beyond recognition.

Threats to China

Today we regularly hear the complaint that certain standard operations of the world economy “threaten China.” This is not just rhetoric. A state that is at a unity in itself cannot tolerate many of the requirements of today’s international system. China is inevitably threatened gravely by one or another aspect of that system, be it international law or untrammeled economic competition.

Convertible money, market interest rates, genuine private property, entrepreneurship, and free trade all threaten China. These seemingly rhetorical statements are in fact all true. The only true way to solve China’s problem is for it to change to capitalism, as many Chinese economists recommend. One doubts that the Party would give up its power and immense wealth, however, just to benefit China inestimably.

The alternative is to change the world system, which brings me to my final point. Most of us are baffled at China’s immense military buildup that is bringing it weapons to par with those of its neighbors and the West. Why is it doing this? Realistically, no one is going to invade China. Nor is it likely that it is going to invade anyone else, not even Taiwan. So, why the immense pouring of capital into needless weapons, as well as to massive bribe loans to small countries around the globe? China believes that if it is militarily threatening enough, it can bend the rules of the world system without using military force. It has already virtually emasculated the Europeans, who follow its diktats quite reliably while taking no action—not only in response to the military threat, but also to ghoulish human rights abuses, such as organ harvesting. Britain and France are partial exceptions. More countries may well join them. China, however, sees the current European attitude as demonstrating how its money and weapons can nobble even the Mother of Parliaments.

Another reason that China is adopting this approach is 40 years of American policy based on misconceptions as mentioned earlier, which have persuaded Beijing that it can be successful in remaking or avoiding international practices. Until recently, the U.S. consensus was that China was a perfect international partner, the value of whose friendship could not be overstated. That was clearly wrong. Under the Obama administration, China not only continued to flout international trade principles, but also to annex illegally territory twice as large as the Mediterranean Sea—eliciting no reaction. Some of the most celebrated American diplomats and scholars supported this policy, so Beijing determined that having fixed us, it could carry on.

History shows that U.S. foreign policy can change suddenly. Thus, when we discover, after years, that we are being used, that our interlocutors are insincere, etc. we are angered. The problem is deeply imbedded in our history and tradition. Now, however, the flame on the long fuse of American policy is getting quite close to the charge and will continue to do so until the very fundamental issues, mentioned above, are resolved. The Chinese do not seem to understand this. They think they can make some small changes, call up a few friends—whose D.C. telephones sadly no longer ring—and fix things. They cannot any longer. In my analysis, then, China is seeking to become “a power” capable of intimidating the United States and other major powers, and thus adjusting international practices. Their military experts are focused on how to hit the United States with one nuclear bomb. They believe that doing so would enhance their credibility, leading to more favorable peace talks. As an American, I must ask, what peace talks?

An Impossible Dilemma

The long prevalent belief that China has fundamentally modernized and can thus fit easily into the existing international trade and diplomatic order has turned out to be false. Domestic social and economic stability can be maintained in China only if the country is insulated from the full impact of globalization. Otherwise full economic competition, law-based diplomacy, currency convertibility, transparency, and so forth will begin to pull apart China’s arbitrary and tightly controlled system. This is not a problem that the current regime can iron out with diplomacy and adjustments. It is inherent in structures that have never been changed since dynastic times. The world must stop imagining that the issues are superficial, or that China is close to compliance. Far more change will be required. To remain ruled and ordered as itis now, China, having discarded the idea of genuine structural reform, has chosen to remake the international system to suit its needs, or at a minimum to become strong enough to opt out of that system when it chooses. The mortal threat that is posed to the People’s Republic of China by the existing international order must be grasped. China has chosen to change not itself, but the world.

This choice is the link between two seemingly distinct aspects of today’s China: its immense military buildup and its unwillingness to play by the rules economically. I have argued that the second is an almost intractable problem, having its roots in the architecture of the Chinese state, not something easy to change, even a little bit. Our focus on the ritual aspects of the Chinese World Order has led us to overlook how fundamental it remains. In conclusion, I have argued that China’s current military buildup and domestic militarization, while they may well lead in fact to war, are intended to weave a net of Chinese leverage into the existing international system, that will give the Beijing the power to change it so that China will not need to change. This approach will not work, but the Communist leadership lacks both the knowledge and the will to begin the changes that would genuinely solve their country’s fundamental problems, thus ending this impossible dilemma.

As one of my highest placed Chinese friends, confidant of the leadership, said privately, “Arthur, what the hell do we do? Everyone knows the system does not work. We are at a dead end a Ṛ⬌ྠ. But we don’t know what first step to take. One mistake and this place will blow up.” This is not a new question for anyone familiar with the history of Chinese “reform”—but one that still has not found an answer.

China’s inability or unwillingness to carry out genuinely structural internal reform then, frames much of her current politics, both internal and external. Because the skeletal structure of the state is still, effectively, monarchical, it lacks the capabilities essential to function effectively in a world swept by waves of globalization. Rather, the external pressures that form today’s world community are inimical to—and destructive of—fundamental Chinese state architecture in ways almost unparalleled today. We must recognize that until China is structurally able to swim confidently in the sea of globalization, intractable friction and conflict will be impossible to avoid.

How to change China so it fits into the jigsaw puzzle of the international system? Not a new question to anyone familiar with the history of Chinese “reform”—but one, we must realize, that still has not found an answer. For all its avowed desire to do so, China can neither dominate nor transform this system, even with the vast army that it is building. The tide of globalization lashes against the foundations of China’s current political structure. So far neither official China nor the west have recognized the immense difficulty of this problem, and the impossibility of solving it without transformative change. The problem will only grow more intense. How China seeks to cope with it will be the most fundamental and most consequential

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 26 Jul 2020 20:04

^^^^^^^

@SSridhar

excellent post, saar.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 26 Jul 2020 20:38

^ Waldron's article describes how China never changed and how it is trying to insulate its domestic policies from globalization while at the same time it is also trying to bend the world order to go its way. It explains this whole process borrowing heavily from the centerpiece of the Chinese dynastical history, namely the concepts of Heaven and the Mandate from the Heaven.

This is great analysis and reinforces the earlier thesis that I had written about in another context: Ever since PRC was formed in 1949, it has conspicuously and unwaveringly followed these four objectives. These waxed and waned depending upon exigencies of times and situations, but nevertheless remained constant within CCP leadership. These have been, securing Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan and South China Sea, making China a high-income economy, recovering 'lost territories' (HK, Macau, Taiwan, Ryukyu) and changing international orders to suit its rise and ambitions. It never compromised on any of these and has ensured that rather the rest of the world adjusted itself to accommodate China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 26 Jul 2020 21:59


Convertible money, market interest rates, genuine private property, entrepreneurship, and free trade all threaten China. These seemingly rhetorical statements are in fact all true. The only true way to solve China’s problem is for it to change to capitalism, as many Chinese economists recommend. One doubts that the Party would give up its power and immense wealth, however, just to benefit China inestimably.



^^^ Now why would we ever want that? Ideological competition is fleeting. That between civilizations is permament.

CCP weakens Chini/Sinosphere civilization in the long haul.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KL Dubey » 26 Jul 2020 22:06

chola wrote:^^^ Now why would we ever want that? Ideological competition is fleeting. That between civilizations is permament.

CCP weakens Chini/Sinosphere civilization in the long haul.


Couldn't agree more.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SriKumar » 26 Jul 2020 22:26

chola wrote:
^^^ Now why would we ever want that? Ideological competition is fleeting. That between civilizations is permament.
CCP weakens Chini/Sinosphere civilization in the long haul.
chola,
how do you read the recent pronouncements by Sec. State Pompeo. The language seems pretty venhement and un-compromising. The language is the strongest I've heard in a while. Is this mere posturing or a precursor of some action to come (military or otherwise)? From your previous comments, it appears that this would be at variance with what the Wall st. wants, so is the administration breaking with Wall st. on China (Assuming the statements potend actions to come and are not just talk).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/pompeo- ... buses.html

The truth is that our policies -- and those of other free nations -- resurrected China's failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it," Pompeo continued. "We opened our arms to Chinese citizens, only to see the Chinese Communist Party exploit our free and open society."

... United States will no longer tolerate Beijing’s playbook to usurp global order.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby M_Joshi » 26 Jul 2020 23:08

Mike Pompeo Just Declared America's New China Policy: Regime Change

America, the secretary of state said, has effectively ditched five decades of “engagement” policy and is now embracing a policy now out of favor across the American policy establishment: regime change.

Formally, the State Department still “engages” China, Pompeo said, but “simply to demand fairness and reciprocity.” Gone are the days when American diplomats engaged China to support the Communist Party. Too often in the past, U.S. presidents rescued Chinese communism, three times—Nixon in 1972, Bush in 1989, and Clinton in 1999—in particular.

...

Taken together, these six pronouncements constitute today’s version of the Long Telegram of 1946 and the “X Article” of 1947, George Kennan’s paradigm-changing thoughts on the Soviet Union.

A paradigm shift on China comes none too soon. “It’s time,” Pompeo said on Thursday, “It’s time for free nations to act.”

From Pompeo on Thursday we heard an echo of “Tear down this wall.” And we heard that when everything is at stake and there’s not a moment to lose.



Indonesian navy makes show of force in South China Sea

Indonesia's navy has conducted a four-day exercise in the South China Sea, it said Friday, in what appears to be a major show of force against Chinese claims to the waters.

Twenty-four warships participated in the exercise that began Tuesday, including two missile destroyers and four escort vessels. Land-based training was also incorporated.

A portion of the exercise was staged near Indonesia's Natuna Islands. The borders of the exclusive economic zone around Natuna overlap with the "nine-dash line" map claimed by China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Jul 2020 00:13

It is very likely that the Chinese are reaching out to sympathetic US multinational companies, who have interests in China, to approach Democratic Party operatives to reach the Biden campaign. The promise of getting back to business as usual will be made with concessions from the Chinese to assist the US in its economic recovery post COVID-19 along with promoting the Democratic Party objectives of a stable world order between the US-EU-China. In return, the US administration will end its aggressive position on China and withdraw military assets. When positive signals come back from the Biden campaign, somewhere along the last week of October to early November, the PLA will launch a massive military strike on India. The template will be from 1990 Gulf War.

The Chinese view Indians as slaves. First of the maharajas, followed by the Islamic invaders, then the British. It is the ultimate destiny of the Asan to be servants and slaves of the Han Chinese.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 27 Jul 2020 00:20

How a Chinese agent used LinkedIn to hunt for targets

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53544505

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 27 Jul 2020 00:56

Mort Walker wrote:
China, to approach Democratic Party operatives to reach the Biden campaign. The promise of getting back to business as usual will be made with concessions from the Chinese to assist the US in its economic recovery post COVID-19 along with promoting the Democratic Party objectives of a stable world order between the US-EU-China....


Mort ji, is victory of Biden very sure?

Secondly even if war happens in November and Biden wins, he won't be taking over until 20th January. So how can he withdraw military assets in November?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KLNMurthy » 27 Jul 2020 01:12



I would take Gordon Chang’s writings with a healthy helping of salt. His words are music to our ears, but I find him to be a rather overenthusiastic quixotic one man army anti-CCP type, I don’t know that he has any real influence or has original insights to offer.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KLNMurthy » 27 Jul 2020 01:17

Mort Walker wrote:It is very likely that the Chinese are reaching out to sympathetic US multinational companies, who have interests in China, to approach Democratic Party operatives to reach the Biden campaign.
...


OT but I would look to them to approach Biden through Bloomberg. Latter is massively dependent on China and is also going to be a huge donor for Biden campaign. Pay attention to Bloomberg media coverage and op-ed slant.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Jul 2020 01:26

About 100 days to election with 11% unemployment and 28 million face eviction/foreclosure in the next month. That will be Trump's undoing - everything else is water under the bridge. There is talk of a 2nd shutdown in many states which will only make economic matters worse.

You are correct that US military assets can't be withdrawn and only asked by the incoming administration, but unless the US is directly attacked, the current administration is unlikely to do anything. Biden/Dems/Urban Naxals will quickly assign personnel that are in alignment with said foreign policy and the BIF will be emboldened around the world.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby darshan » 27 Jul 2020 01:31

There bureaucracy would start slanting towards apparent winner even before the election results. Obviously, chinese would be doing the same all over the world including India. For example, Indian companies like Flipkart aren't worried even a bit and see things as usual when one sees them all happy about being able to sell huawei's laptops.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chola » 27 Jul 2020 02:10

SriKumar wrote:
chola wrote:
^^^ Now why would we ever want that? Ideological competition is fleeting. That between civilizations is permament.
CCP weakens Chini/Sinosphere civilization in the long haul.
chola,
how do you read the recent pronouncements by Sec. State Pompeo. The language seems pretty venhement and un-compromising. The language is the strongest I've heard in a while. Is this mere posturing or a precursor of some action to come (military or otherwise)? From your previous comments, it appears that this would be at variance with what the Wall st. wants, so is the administration breaking with Wall st. on China (Assuming the statements potend actions to come and are not just talk).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/pompeo- ... buses.html

The truth is that our policies -- and those of other free nations -- resurrected China's failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it," Pompeo continued. "We opened our arms to Chinese citizens, only to see the Chinese Communist Party exploit our free and open society."

... United States will no longer tolerate Beijing’s playbook to usurp global order.


Not new. It had been the case since the beginning of the Trump admin. The truth is the china Hawks are making sure that breakage with Cheen happens during this term so whether Trump win the 2020 election or not the US and China will continue down this path of eventual conflict or at containment because of the things they've set in motion.

Wall Street wants US Fortune 500 control of the Chinese market. Tesla going gangbusters in China and conquering the chini EV market in spite of the trade war is music to Wall Street's ears. Not so for the Hawks. They want separation because because gaining control of the chini market would also mean quid pro quo trade relation negotiations which would benefit Cheen.

For example, Wall Street owns the chini silicon chip market but Navarro and Pompeo want Amreeki MNCs to give that up. Imagine India owning the generic drugs market in Cheen and being told to walk away from this.

So what does Wall Street really thinks?

Well under Nixon, Reagan and Bush I, Wall Street and the GOP worked together to allow to create something called Chimerica.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimerica
Historian Niall Ferguson and economist Moritz Schularick first coined the term in late 2006, arguing that saving by the Chinese and overspending by Americans led to an incredible period of wealth creation that contributed to the financial crisis of 2007–08. For years, China accumulated large currency reserves and channeled them into US government securities, which kept nominal and real long-term interest rates artificially low in the United States. Ferguson describes Chimerica as one economy which "accounts for around 13 percent of the world's land surface, a quarter of its population, about a third of its gross domestic product, and somewhere over half of the global economic growth of the past six years." He suggests Chimerica could end if China were to decouple from the United States bringing with it a shift in global power and allowing China "to explore other spheres of global influence, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Russia is also a member, to its own informal nascent empire in commodity-rich Africa."


Trump's administration is deliberately decoupling and bringing an end to Chimerica. Wall Street hopes that they are prepare for that shift when Cheen no longer relies on American tech, American dollars and American ideas. (You think the millions of students at US colleges over the decades from the chini elite and middle class do have an imprint on Chinese society?)

Both Wall Street and the China Hawks are working for US pre-eminence. The difference is Wall Street thinks having Amreeki influence and control of the Chini market, taste and education is better than not having it. The Hawks thinks that Cheen gains more from the Wall Street and engagement with the rest of America.

Basically, Wall Street's position is a hedge that allows the US to remain power in Cheen. The Hawks' is a short on Cheen itself. If Cheen rises in spite of decoupling then it is a total loss. Wall Street's a safer bet. But maybe you can't hedge and must go all in when you are talking about global preeminence.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Jul 2020 02:47

HIstory may repeat itself in some ways. The first inkling of problems with the CCP came in the spring 1962. Instead of the Chinese coordinating with USSR, they may coordinate with the US.

1962
OCTOBER 8 China tells USSR it will attack India
OCTOBER 15 United States discovers Soviet missiles in Cuba
OCTOBER 20 First Chinese attack on India begins
OCTOBER 21 Galbraith returns from London to New Delhi
OCTOBER 22 Kennedy reveals Soviet missiles in address to nation, demands removal, imposes naval quarantine
OCTOBER 24 Soviet ships halt en route to Cuba
OCTOBER 27 First Chinese offensive in India ends U-2 shot down in Cuba, pilot killed
OCTOBER 28 Khrushchev agrees to remove missiles from Cuba
OCTOBER 29 Nehru asks United States and United Kingdom for immediate arms shipments
NOVEMBER 1 USAF and RAF supply underway to India
NOVEMBER 7 Ayub Khan asks Kennedy for compensation in Kashmir to ensure Pakistan neutrality in Sino-India war
NOVEMBER 12 Kennedy demands removal of IL-28 bombers from Cuba
NOVEMBER 16 Second Chinese attack on India begins
NOVEMBER 19 Nehru asks Kennedy for airpower intervention; Kennedy sends Harriman mission and aircraft carrier battle group to India

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Kati » 27 Jul 2020 03:34

Op-Ed: The U.S.-China clash has entered perilous new territory
PUBLISHED SUN, JUL 26 20209:15 AM EDT


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/26/op-ed-t ... itory.html

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby fanne » 27 Jul 2020 03:44

With one difference -
War is uncertain and no one knows who will win. God himself told Arjun (after showing his infinite form and telling I am God), that if you win you will enjoy this kingdom and if you die - there is no better way to die for a khatriya - Now that this disclaimer is out of way

In a war most likely outcome is DRAW (unlike 1962) and if we get little imaginative (or if SCS becomes any hot and some chicom troops are pulled to support that theater) then perhaps a victory. I believe chicom have drunk their own cool aid, there mechanized warfare may get heavily blunted by anti-tank weapon wielded by the ground troops, IAF, weather and their lack of local initiative. It seams they have a plan with little room for enemy doing any smart counteraction. There plan requires they fire and IA play dead. If we refuse to play dead, they are fukced!!
We will win this round, or else we will draw it. Chicoms are looking at a good thrashing

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SriKumar » 27 Jul 2020 03:48

chola wrote:Not new. It had been the case since the beginning of the Trump admin. The truth is the china Hawks are making sure that breakage with Cheen happens during this term so whether Trump win the 2020 election or not the US and China will continue down this path of eventual conflict or at containment because of the things they've set in motion.
THanks. In the early stages of the administration, everything pointed to mostly a trade war, essentially tarriffs, IP theft and the like. This is the first I am seeing official pronouncements about 'usurping world order' which directly refers to military and political control, beyond just trade/economics. Hence my surprise.

Basically, Wall Street's position is a hedge that allows the US to remain power in Cheen. The Hawks' is a short on Cheen itself. If Cheen rises in spite of decoupling then it is a total loss. Wall Street's a safer bet. But maybe you can't hedge and must go all in when you are talking about global preeminence.
Appreciate the explanations. Seeing China's international dealings over the last 2 years, esp. with respect to India, Africa and perhaps even the US (with the espionage in US, IP theft in China), it appears that they see dominanace as a zero-sum game. Asia is not big enough for Cheen and India is their worldview. A few decades down, it might be the US, and they've started down this path with their OBOR/CPEC dreams. It seems to suggest that whether the hawks or Wall St, win, there might be another stage beyond that, to this contest. Sobering thought.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 27 Jul 2020 04:54

The PRC war drill banners for the populace are meant for a Sino- US spat, not for an Info- Sino spat. Trump is upping the ante esp. in the run- up to Nov.where polls indicate that he needs to " wag the dog" to generate enough jingoism to win.A mil. clash where the US comes off better and humiliates the Chinks.

Reading the very detailed insight into the Chin mind,they believing that the axis mundi of the planet goes thro the PRC,the navel of the world,given its perfidious proclivities, I am more inclined to postulate that it is the rectum and anus that is on the Sino axis instead! But this also reminds me of another story about the anus
which I think all on BRF well know.That of the bragging rights of the various organs and all the organs finally agreeing that the anus was the most important as he threatened to close his bunghole with disastrous effects on the entire body!

It is doing exactly that today with its muscle-flexing giving Asia and the world literally the shits! Apart from inviting Oz to participate in the next maritime exercises in our waters,we should also invite another group comprising of Indonesia,Vietnam,the Phillipines,Thailand,S'pore,Cambodia ,Malaysia,etc.,with the IN taking the lead just as the US is doing with the Quad. In fact SoKo should be added to the Quad turning it into the " Quint".This way the influence of the IN and the nation gets dramatically increased.A " pan- Asian" coalition would be far more attractive to many smaller ASEAN members reluctant to support the Quad being a US-led entity.Similarly,the GOI/ IN should get together a third grouping,of IOR littoral nations minus Pak.All the S.Asian navies, African and Arabian peninsular ones including S.Africa,Oz and Iran too as part of this group. This way the PRC could be further isolated in the Afro-Asia- Pacific region.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Jul 2020 05:23

It's not entirely wag the dog going on. It is a spat which will resolve, but it's more in the hands of how Emperor 11 handles the situation. The PLA is making claims to large portions of the South China Sea as EEZ, threatening free passage, USN, Taiwan and Japan. Trade and IP theft only complicate matters.

Besides the IN, the other navies in the IOR are too small. If a shooting war starts between the US and China, then India needs to launch an offensive and reclaim the borders as they were set in 1947. The last opportunity was in 1979 when Vietnam and China had a border war. India could have launched and offensive, but had Morarji Desai as PM.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Shanmukh » 27 Jul 2020 08:03

Mort Walker wrote:Besides the IN, the other navies in the IOR are too small. If a shooting war starts between the US and China, then India needs to launch an offensive and reclaim the borders as they were set in 1947. The last opportunity was in 1979 when Vietnam and China had a border war. India could have launched and offensive, but had Morarji Desai as PM.


The Indonesian navy is not that bad, and the Korean navy is really powerful. But apart from these two, the others in the region are just pushovers. But it will be good for the Indian navy exercise with these two at least.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Philip » 27 Jul 2020 09:29

Even though some are small,they can all monitor their coastlines and 200nm EEZ.The Viets have 6 brand new Kilos.V.useful in the ICS.We were some time ago supposedly giving them some training.Intel on the PLAN's movements and MVs reqd.One aspect that some analysts keep mentioning is the PLAN's secret fleet.The thousands of fishing vessels that swarm the ICS and the region.This huge fleet acts as intel gatherers for the PLAN, involved in smuggling rackets against non- PRC states, apart from illegal fishing in foreign EEZs,etc. Unfortunately there is v.little evidence that we have used our merchant marine and fishing fleet even a fraction of how the PLAN has used theirs. It was only after 26/11 that our fishing fleet was asked to be on the watch for suspicious terror boats from Pak.Some degree of watchfulness has been there but only dealing with Pak. Every Indian flagged MV especially those transiting the ICS and the Far East must be utilised by our agencies.The Chinese use every tourist,traveller abroad for espionage,why they've narrowed the tech. gap with the west so fast and are now in some areas surpassing them.

I am afraid that the GOI has still not understood the menace of the PRC.It is a fight to the finish for the survival of India in the future context,not some small piddly land dispute in the hostile terrain of the Himalayas. Political games are being played out in regrettable fashion,an internecine war between the govt. and opposition, with more attention at times given to political battles than the total boycott reqd. of PRC goods and services and further emergency immediate measures to bolster nos. of aircraft and other weapon systems,etc. needed right now.Even decisions like sealing deals approved years ago like the LUH,Kalashnikovs, upgrades,etc.,are languishing or being sabotaged by vested interests,with only certain deals being fast tracked. Much more needs to be done as the PRC are preparing their population for war with bannners about air raid precautions,etc. now on their city streets.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sajo » 27 Jul 2020 11:39

Mort Walker wrote:It is very likely that the Chinese are reaching out to sympathetic US multinational companies, who have interests in China, to approach Democratic Party operatives to reach the Biden campaign.


You, sir, have put it very succinctly. I think USA Inc., with its extreme reliance on Cheen will not have a ruling dispensation which is acrimonious to their a place which gives them super fat margins and an easy life. They will go all out to push either the Republican outlook to look the other way, or to ensure Maulana Biden would win. The American consumers have so far so no inclination to decouple by voting with their wallets.


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