Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

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KLNMurthy
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KLNMurthy » 01 Oct 2020 01:29

AshishA wrote:Btw one thing I don't understand is why do Chinese change their name when they move to western countries. Japanese don't do it. Koreans don't do it. Vietnamese don't do it. So why do Chinese change their name? Maybe DavidD can elaborate. Other members should also pitch in their opinions.

Same reason why they ditch their ancient music and make their kids slog to master Western music, or get plastic surgery on eyelids & nose: all these things, names, music, clothing, even body, are superficial, and can’t be allowed to stand in the way of achieving success & dominance.

We have our equivalent in”mera joota hai japani, patloon inglistani... phir bhi dil hai Hindustani.”

The Chinese take it to a whole another level. Their “dil” is resolutely Han.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby RaviB » 01 Oct 2020 02:05

AshishA wrote:
Btw one thing I don't understand is why do Chinese change their name when they move to western countries. Japanese don't do it. Koreans don't do it. Vietnamese don't do it. So why do Chinese change their name? Maybe DavidD can elaborate. Other members should also pitch in their opinions.


Deep seated inferiority complex and often the FOB Chinese want to be mistaken for 2nd or 3rd gen ethnic Chinese in the USA. The 2nd and 3rd gen usually do have western names.

P.S. even the ones still in China tend to have a western first name these days, occasionally quite ridiculous stuff like Cerberus and Tiberius

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby chetak » 01 Oct 2020 02:13

yensoy wrote:^^^^ very well stated. There is no American guarantee of anything, never has been. An insurance company will not insure something which is considered to be disputed; America will not insure India's perception of the LAC even in today's climate of better relations with the US. Hard American support has never figured in our military calculus - although we hope we will have access to some information, analyses, studies, training and such matters which btw are reciprocally exchanged.

The second thing is about India's reaction. It's very simple - we will defend our land and our people. Otherwise what's the point of having one of the largest militaries of the world, for which the people of India spend a decent (but not outsided) portion of our GDP? We will fight for what is ours and only what is ours; and for the same reason we have no interest in taking over land which is not ours (even if in many Indian minds that land doesn't belong to you either).

China has been a bully and the only way to stop being bullied is by requesting/telling/compelling/coercing the bully to back off. That doesn't mean you need to become a bully yourself.


china needs a certain, decisive and crushing win against India so as to make it an example for other enemies, as well as, teach India a 1962 like lesson and get it to keep it's head down for another century at least.

even a small chance that such a result will not come about will cause the PLA + CCP to pause and rethink through their options. Also, the more than likely prospect of a bloody nose given by India will cause the PLA as well as the CCP to lose huge face with personal complications, consequences, and more than possible repercussions for xi himself as well as a savage purge of senior ranks in the PLA.

just see how no one, either in china or in paxistan have mentioned the word "atum bum" which all the crazy mulla beardos there start screaming "atum bum" at the drop of their islamic hats.

with the mood India is in and a hugely popular Modi firmly in the chair, the pakis will not risk pushing us into any two front war nonsense. They know for sure that Modi will move against POK first, as well as, taking some paki cities across the border.

the PLA seems long on rhetoric and short on delivery, given their meagre battle experience in the past many decades. The last time they went to battle was in 1979 when the PLA got badly mauled and their collective ego was raped by the so called "inferior" forces of Vietnam. The PLA troops have run away from confrontation in some UN peacekeeping missions too.

After the galwan thrashing, the PLA morale may be low but we should be doubly watchful of any cheeni move to gain tactical superiority before the winter sets in.

The savage fightback by the IA at galwan has got our troops psyched up, and they are now resolutely on the prowl and actively looking for plump cheeni geese to hunt, and given half a chance they will give the PLA soldiers more than a bloody nose.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KL Dubey » 01 Oct 2020 03:52

KLNMurthy wrote:Same reason why they ditch their ancient music and make their kids slog to master Western music, or get plastic surgery on eyelids & nose: all these things, names, music, clothing, even body, are superficial, and can’t be allowed to stand in the way of achieving success & dominance.

We have our equivalent in”mera joota hai japani, patloon inglistani... phir bhi dil hai Hindustani.” The Chinese take it to a whole another level. Their “dil” is resolutely Han.


Back in the late 90s I met a middle-aged chinese professor at a university...he told me "awalahu" was one of his all time favorite songs. I didn't understand what that meant, so he tried to help me out with "awalahu! laja kapu!", which I finally understood after racking my brain: "awara hoon/raj kapoor". Nowadays most Chinese in USA get drafted into some sort of Xtian conversion scheme. I'd say the majority of immigrant chinese in the USA are cryptoXtians. If the CCP falls the country will be probably overrun by conversion outfits. Not sure if that would defang the threat or make it worse. Probably the latter.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KLNMurthy » 01 Oct 2020 03:54

Look for Hans to activate public unrest over something or the other, to do “regime change” or “regime weakening.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Suraj » 01 Oct 2020 04:23

Quoting this excellent post here from the border thread:
RaviB wrote:As a Chinese strategist, my objectives are:

1. To coerce India to align itself with our strategic goals. The Chairman's pet/legacy project is one belt one road. India must support this or stop interfering with it
2. To prevent India from aligning with USA and other parties. Force it to stay on the fence by demonstrating the potential punishment for violating China's interests
3. Force India to desist from making provocative infrastructure and military moves in the Western Sector. India must be deterred, without increased Chinese deployment for the long term. Once India has been punished, it's resolve must be broken, it should stay quiet, without requiring additional military and strategic attention
4. Ensure peace for the next few decades in the secondary strategic direction to be able to focus for the long term on Taiwan & USA. This time we must demonstrate that we hold the territory up to our claim line and make sure India understands that this is the new red line which cannot be crossed.
4b. If India spends the next few decades doing heavy military expenditure instead of quietly seeking peace by diplomatic submission, it would disrupt India's development trajectory and would remove it as a potential threat post 2060.

What my objective are not:
1. Tactical gains of territory which require permanent deployment to hold them

How I will go about achieving these objectives:

1. We have the winning template of 1962, I tweak this and improve this to avoid mistakes of 1962.

2. The biggest mistake of 1962 was withdrawal after victory. This time either we prepare the logistics so there is no need to withdraw from the claim line or prepare to deter through demonstrated military punishment combined with the ability to surge troops to individual locations.

3. I will begin with overwhelming use of multiple avenues of attack*: Cyberwarfare, UN and diplomatic moves, disinformation, influence operation through sympathetic parties in India. This will be followed by ballistic missiles combined with crippling electronic warfare. PLAAF is at the same level as IAF, so to field it initially might be risky. India has always shown carefully graded escalation in other wars, so I will not bring in PLAAF first to avoid this step of the ladder, if possible. My focus is on air defense and keeping the PLAAF as reserve. Ground forces are weaker and less dispensable compared to IA, so they will be held back as far as possible. It may be possible that India starts negotiating after missile strikes and the PLAGF can be held back for a surprise attack once the talks have been sufficiently dragged on. This will be shown as a counter-attack in response to Indian provocation and force India to concede many more demands on the negotiating table.

4. I will hold the PLAAF in a defensive role in the western sector due to payload penalties, etc. I will attack in the eastern sector using strategic bombers taking off from Chengdu or Lijiang to target areas bordering South Tibet (I will not bomb Arunachal since it is my territory with my people, but Dibrugarh would be a good target).

*as prescribed by Unrestricted Warfare, the book PLA actually uses instead of Sun Tzu.


This is a great example of viewing goals from the Chinese perspective. It explains what's important to them, and how 1962 - perhaps more so than even they imagined - worked extremely well to constrain India into compliant behavior. Any aggressive nation might have built the infrastructure we're building now , decades ago. But we didn't. They learned from that as to how to manage India - keep doing enough to keep India on the back foot.

However, their policy prerogatives remain focused on their eastern seaboard. They cannot get anywhere near the emotional traction for a war against India (on the other side of the buffer territory they have) than they can when it comes to Taiwan or the US and Japan dominating the Pacific. India therefore must remaining an entity they can manage effectively at minimal cost. When costs costs go up, they'll threaten and scream and try to get us to back down, but beyond that, would be aware that their relatively greater infrastructural coverage is being undermined by the amount of construction on the Indian side.

Further, eliminating Article 370 brings out major fears that India will do something that for decades they were too pusillanimous to do - enable revolt in Tibet. Or Tibet and Xinjiang. The potential for an emboldened India to become a non status quoist power for whom revanchism is a political goal, is a major threat to China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sanjaykumar » 01 Oct 2020 05:42

KLNMurthy wrote:
Same reason why they ditch their ancient music and make their kids slog to master Western music, or get plastic surgery on eyelids & nose: all these things, names, music, clothing, even body, are superficial, and can’t be allowed to stand in the way of achieving success & dominance.



Koreans are also wholesale Christians and cosmetic surgery aficionados. But they retain their Korean names, which is a matter of some respect (that's how I tell them apart from northern Chinese). They are not fully into aping Westerners as judged by their approach to western classical music.

Perhaps Chinese traditional orchestral music is very odd to modern ears including in China, although the eru solo can be extraordinarily expressive.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby skumar » 01 Oct 2020 05:51

DavidD wrote:If you can't figure out why China "did" it, then maybe your premise is wrong. I know it's an Indian board, but what if India is the aggressor here? What would be India's motive?

....


Your statements belie a lack of understanding about the Indian situation.

1. You may not trust Xi but most Indians would trust Modi not to start a war to get out of a tricky situation. This may sound alien to you.

2. Modi has won one of the largest democratic mandates in history. He does not have to do anything till 2024, there is no challenger internally within the party or in the opposition.

3. India is a status quo party in disputes, it takes a lot to wake us up. India proposed exchange of maps, it is China which refuses. It is China which pursues salami slicing. It is India which foolishly commits to a one-China policy without anything in return (I hope it is reconsidered).

4. India is acutely aware of Xi's ambitions to be counted alongside Mao and Deng. What could be better than a grand gift on the centenary celebrations of the CCP and PRC, something Mao and Deng could not deliver?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sudarshan » 01 Oct 2020 07:29

KLNMurthy wrote:It is telling that you have had to spell it out at this level of detail for a presumably-Han forum member who comes across as intelligent, sophisticated, articulate and reasonably skeptical.

All the stuff you wrote—brilliantly expounded as it is—is glaringly, ridiculously obvious to us Indians.


Thank you saar. There are dhoti-shiver Indians too though, who could use some perspective. Hopefully that breed will dwindle here on.

And yet, for a reader like DavidD, it was so obscure that he missed the obvious sarcasm of your original reference to American support. DavidD is probably as good & receptive as we can expect from Han observers and interlocutors.


Yes I had a face-palm moment when I saw how literally that sarcastic statement was interpreted. I guess it fits in so seamlessly with the Chinese view of India, that the sarcasm went way overhead.

Chess-player/ card player.


I originally thought of that analogy in another context, but it fit in so well here as well :). Bluffing, poker face, quiet accumulation of cards, with a final triumphant denouement which leads the opponent to simply surrender in the face of the superior display - that's what China has been doing with all neighbors. "I got a royal flush! What you got? Huh? What you got, punk? Tha-at's right, crawl away while I'm still in a good mood!" Quietly build up infrastructure and forces at a selected location, then bare fangs one fine day, intimidate, take over, build like crazy in the newly-acquired area. Works excellently, until one fine day there comes an opponent who refuses to play poker, and who is game for a direct fist-fight instead.

To those talking about Chinese and their adopted west-Asian or European names (many Xtian names are actually of west-Asian/ Hebrew/ Jewish origin, while most of the rest are of pagan European origin - something which they conveniently forget, but of which I like to remind them :)) - that topic is better suited for the China Meets World thread. I have some thoughts on that too.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby vimal » 01 Oct 2020 10:32

China Is Running Out of US Dollars

China is facing an economic collapse because of a financial crisis caused by a shortage of US dollars. The coronavirus economy and the US China trade war, plus US sanctions on Hong Kong, risk cutting off Chinese banks from the US dollar, which could have a devastating effect on the Chinese economy. And China uses dollars for everything, from loans to investments as part of the China Belt and Road Initiative. But with an economic depression facing the global economy because of the coronavirus, the China economy might have a chance to recover and grow its supply of US currency.




Seems like clickbait to me. What do gurus think about this?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 01 Oct 2020 11:31

^^
Not too far fetched ..

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby RaviB » 01 Oct 2020 14:19

Suraj wrote:Quoting this excellent post here from the border thread:
RaviB wrote:As a Chinese strategist, my objectives are:

..


This is a great example of viewing goals from the Chinese perspective. It explains what's important to them, and how 1962 - perhaps more so than even they imagined - worked extremely well to constrain India into compliant behavior. Any aggressive nation might have built the infrastructure we're building now , decades ago. But we didn't. They learned from that as to how to manage India - keep doing enough to keep India on the back foot.

However, their policy prerogatives remain focused on their eastern seaboard. They cannot get anywhere near the emotional traction for a war against India (on the other side of the buffer territory they have) than they can when it comes to Taiwan or the US and Japan dominating the Pacific. India therefore must remaining an entity they can manage effectively at minimal cost. When costs costs go up, they'll threaten and scream and try to get us to back down, but beyond that, would be aware that their relatively greater infrastructural coverage is being undermined by the amount of construction on the Indian side.

Further, eliminating Article 370 brings out major fears that India will do something that for decades they were too pusillanimous to do - enable revolt in Tibet. Or Tibet and Xinjiang. The potential for an emboldened India to become a non status quoist power for whom revanchism is a political goal, is a major threat to China.

Thank you, Suraj ji

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby DavidD » 01 Oct 2020 15:01

You guys bring up some great points. I obviously can't reply to everyone, but I think I can sum up my stance at this point. Reading through your replies, and doing some readings based on them, I admit that I had the wrong impression of Indian domestic politics, which in turn made the premise of my hypotheses wrong. So, back to square one. What's the motivation for each side to escalate tensions there? I feel that my analysis of potential Chinese motivations is reasonably thorough and I couldn't find a compelling reason for China to do so, so I tried to develop some theories of why India may do so. Clearly those Indian theories were far less thorough, and I appreciate you guys for pointing it out in a civil manner.

As for changing names, it's just a name. I don't know if it's just Chinese culture or if it's a sequela of the Cultural Revolution, but in general Chinese don't hold anything as sacred. Using a Western name in a Western country is simply logical. Everyone can spell it, you don't have to answer "how do you pronounce that" every time someone sees your name, it's just more convenient than using a Chinese name. You see it in restaurants too. Japanese restaurants would have "Gyoza" or "Ramen", while Chinese restaurants instead of having "Jiaozi" or "Lamien" they just call them by their English names "dumplings" or "pulled noodles".

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 01 Oct 2020 18:22

DavidD wrote: ...snip... What's the motivation for each side to escalate tensions there? I feel that my analysis of potential Chinese motivations is reasonably thorough and I couldn't find a compelling reason for China to do so, so I tried to develop some theories of why India may do so. Clearly those Indian theories were far less thorough, and I appreciate you guys for pointing it out in a civil manner.


True, China is into wolf warrior mode without any compelling strategic or tactical reason whatsoever. It is a fact that China is getting into antagonistic mode with countries the world over. Recently Eleven Dingaling asked for everyone to have a "fighting mentality" in China. It seems like Chinese diplomacy, military are following the mad diktats of their newly minted Cut-Copy-Paste Mao Xitler, the Emperor of Everything. It is quite understandable that an Average Zhou may not find a logical or compelling reason for such Chinese behaviour. It can all be traced to Xi Jinping Bipolar Thought.

I might also add that India is merely responding to Chinese madness with the correct treatment, whereas the rest of the world is still kinda not sure what to do.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Shanmukh » 01 Oct 2020 18:39

DavidD wrote:What's the motivation for each side to escalate tensions there? I feel that my analysis of potential Chinese motivations is reasonably thorough and I couldn't find a compelling reason for China to do so.


Sorry, but your analysis doesn't work out. India is keeping what belongs to it. In fact, despite being stopped from patrolling in many places and salami slicing due to continuous intrusions, India has kept things mostly on an even keel. Your analysis of Chinese motivations does not answer, BTW, what is causing the Chinese to pick fights with Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, etc. What is causing the Chinese semi-official media to howl about Vladivostok and Mongolia? Are these also due to everyone picking fights with China due to their wanting to divert attention from internal matters? Why is everyone picking fights only with China, BTW? One would expect some diversity in the choice of adversaries if they just wanted to divert attention, no? Or is it like our Kejriwal saying `sab mile hue hain' [everyone is in a conspiracy]?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 01 Oct 2020 18:48

It will all become clear the moment you understand that Xi is this generation's version of Hitler and CCP is the Nazi party.

There is no compelling reason for us to understand.

It is one of the examples of mankind's collective madness amplified by an inhuman ideology called communism/socialism.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby darshan » 01 Oct 2020 18:59

rajpa wrote:It will all become clear the moment you understand that Xi is this generation's version of Hitler and CCP is the Nazi party.


Multiple genocides have been committed and are still being committed by CCP and Hans. However, the world is still quite about it. That also includes Jewish people who are decedent of Nazi victims.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 01 Oct 2020 19:58

Unfortunately the world community learns to act only after a massive humanitarian crisis is precipitated.

The current lukewarm worldwide resistance to CCP has itself started only after the Wuhan virus was let loose on humanity by the CCP. Hopefully this will slowly create the necessary avalanche against the CCP.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 01 Oct 2020 20:54

One of the mistakes that we make is to assume that the Chinese are "rational".

I was just researching on the development of logic in the history of China. It is hardly half a page in Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logic_in_China

Here is another sad looking article on Logic in China.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chinese-logic-language/

Compare that to the comprehensive system of sophisticated Indian logic starting from ancient times. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_logic

So when we talk about the ability of the Chinese to "reason" and be "rational", we are talking about something different.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby DavidD » 01 Oct 2020 21:13

Shanmukh wrote:
DavidD wrote:What's the motivation for each side to escalate tensions there? I feel that my analysis of potential Chinese motivations is reasonably thorough and I couldn't find a compelling reason for China to do so.


Sorry, but your analysis doesn't work out. India is keeping what belongs to it. In fact, despite being stopped from patrolling in many places and salami slicing due to continuous intrusions, India has kept things mostly on an even keel. Your analysis of Chinese motivations does not answer, BTW, what is causing the Chinese to pick fights with Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, etc. What is causing the Chinese semi-official media to howl about Vladivostok and Mongolia? Are these also due to everyone picking fights with China due to their wanting to divert attention from internal matters? Why is everyone picking fights only with China, BTW? One would expect some diversity in the choice of adversaries if they just wanted to divert attention, no? Or is it like our Kejriwal saying `sab mile hue hain' [everyone is in a conspiracy]?


Breaking out of the first island chain, and then the second island chain, is a long term strategic goal of China's, so I see the merits of keeping the pressure on that front. I don't know what you're talking about with Vladivostok or Mongolia, maybe it's some small timers running their mouths. Mongolia isn't really a concern, and the strategic partnership between China and Russia is deepening by the day. The northern border is as secure as it's probably ever been in Chinese history.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby skumar » 01 Oct 2020 21:27

DavidD wrote:...I feel that my analysis of potential Chinese motivations is reasonably thorough and I couldn't find a compelling reason for China to do so, so I tried to develop some theories of why India may do so. Clearly those Indian theories were far less thorough, and I appreciate you guys for pointing it out in a civil manner.

As for changing names, it's just a name. ....


Civility begets civility, you have been civil on a board that could be easily hostile to your position.

Chinese motivations? Several motivations have been pointed out on this board. How about the easiest one?
skumar wrote:...
4. India is acutely aware of Xi's ambitions to be counted alongside Mao and Deng. What could be better than a grand gift on the centenary celebrations of the CCP and PRC, something Mao and Deng could not deliver?


More thoughts on that - Xi has 2 options - 1. Taiwan or 2. Ladakh to complete the annexation of Tibet and the humiliation of India.

Taiwan is an option where the pieces have advanced enough over decades for everyone to know where the red lines are. Xi is not sure if he can pull it off in a year.

So he goes for what he thinks is the easier option.

On the name thing, the point to note is that few countries do it, so it gives an interesting perspective. Indian names are not easy either but we have picked up the language instead of the names.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 01 Oct 2020 21:44

DavidD wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
Sorry, but your analysis doesn't work out. India is keeping what belongs to it. In fact, despite being stopped from patrolling in many places and salami slicing due to continuous intrusions, India has kept things mostly on an even keel. Your analysis of Chinese motivations does not answer, BTW, what is causing the Chinese to pick fights with Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, etc. What is causing the Chinese semi-official media to howl about Vladivostok and Mongolia? Are these also due to everyone picking fights with China due to their wanting to divert attention from internal matters? Why is everyone picking fights only with China, BTW? One would expect some diversity in the choice of adversaries if they just wanted to divert attention, no? Or is it like our Kejriwal saying `sab mile hue hain' [everyone is in a conspiracy]?


Breaking out of the first island chain, and then the second island chain, is a long term strategic goal of China's, so I see the merits of keeping the pressure on that front. I don't know what you're talking about with Vladivostok or Mongolia, maybe it's some small timers running their mouths. Mongolia isn't really a concern, and the strategic partnership between China and Russia is deepening by the day. The northern border is as secure as it's probably ever been in Chinese history.


The problem is having strategic goals which impede on other countries' sovereignty. This should give you the compelling reasons that you said you couldn't find.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Lisa » 01 Oct 2020 22:33

https://www.ft.com/content/35197477-ace ... 743ee8d8e3

Germany is to impose tough new restrictions on telecoms equipment providers which will effectively exclude Huawei from the buildout of the country’s 5G phone networks. :rotfl: :rotfl:

An IT security bill that Angela Merkel’s cabinet is planning to pass in the coming weeks would stop short of an outright ban on Huawei but creates bureaucratic obstacles that could prove insurmountable for the Chinese company, according to MPs with knowledge of the draft legislation.

A move by the German government to phase out Huawei as a supplier of 5G telecoms equipment would be a huge blow to the Chinese company’s international ambitions. Germany, like the UK, has been one of Huawei’s key markets for expansion outside mainland China and its deals with companies such as Vodafone and Deutsche Telekom have helped turn it into the world’s largest supplier of telecoms equipment.

MPs who have seen the new bill say it will introduce a two-stage approval process for telecoms equipment, involving a technical check of individual components combined with a political assessment of the manufacturer’s “trustworthiness”.

“The German parliament requires the legal means to be able to exclude untrustworthy suppliers like Huawei from the 5G buildout, and this new law appears to do just that,” said Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the Social Democrats, a junior partner in Ms Merkel’s coalition government who has called for a tougher approach to Huawei.

The bill is not yet finalised and may still undergo technical changes. But it is already clear that it will make it almost impossible for Huawei to participate in Germany’s 5G programme.

“How can Huawei, a company with suspected links to the Chinese state, pass a political trustworthiness test?” said one MP involved in the discussions on the new law. “It’s impossible.”

Angela Merkel in the Bundestag on Wednesday. The German chancellor faced a rebellion from her own party to take a hard line on Huawei © Michael Kappeler/dpa
The bill also envisages a key role for Germany’s intelligence services, which have long been sceptical about Huawei. “In its current form [the bill] envisages that when doubts arise as to a company’s trustworthiness then the government can investigate it, using information provided by the intelligence services,” said Thorsten Frei, an MP with Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU.

Germany joins a growing group of countries that have moved to impose restrictions on Huawei, which critics believe could be used by Beijing to conduct espionage or cyber sabotage. Washington has repeatedly cited a law obliging Chinese companies and citizens to aid the state in intelligence-gathering. Huawei has denied that it is a tool of the Chinese government.

In July, the UK government banned operators from buying new 5G equipment from Huawei from the end of the year, while France has created regulatory hurdles designed to steer telecoms operators away from using the company’s kit.

The US government has been pressing its allies in Europe to drop Huawei as a supplier for several months. Last year the US warned it would scale back intelligence-sharing with Germany unless Berlin blocked Huawei. “The American pressure has been just brutal,” said one senior German official.

On Wednesday, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo used a trip to Rome to warn the Italian government that Chinese technology companies “with ties to the Chinese Communist party” were a threat to Italy’s national security and the privacy of its citizens.

Ms Merkel has resisted US pressure to impose an explicit ban on the Chinese company, telling the FT earlier this year that it was wrong to “simply exclude someone per se”. Instead, she has sought to tighten the country’s security requirements towards all telecoms equipment providers and diversify suppliers.

But she has faced a rebellion from her own party, which has demanded a much harder line on Huawei — as have the Social Democrats and opposition Greens.

Huawei declined to comment on the new German law, stressing that the bill had yet to be finalised. It said it was a “purely private company” that was co-operating with the German security authorities and could “see no plausible reasons to limit our access to the [German] market”.

Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica, two of Germany’s biggest mobile operators, declined to comment. Vodafone said it would “continue to monitor the situation and will always comply with regulations”.

All three companies have used Huawei equipment for their mobile and fixed line networks and that has continued into the 5G era. In recent years the operators have signed deals to use the Chinese company’s kit for radio access networks (RAN) — the equipment that sits on masts and rooftops to connect phone calls.

But even before the new bill was being finalised, the companies had started to move away from using Huawei systems in the “core” — the intelligent part of the network where customer information is processed.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Shanmukh » 02 Oct 2020 00:27

DavidD wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
Sorry, but your analysis doesn't work out. India is keeping what belongs to it. In fact, despite being stopped from patrolling in many places and salami slicing due to continuous intrusions, India has kept things mostly on an even keel. Your analysis of Chinese motivations does not answer, BTW, what is causing the Chinese to pick fights with Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, etc. What is causing the Chinese semi-official media to howl about Vladivostok and Mongolia? Are these also due to everyone picking fights with China due to their wanting to divert attention from internal matters? Why is everyone picking fights only with China, BTW? One would expect some diversity in the choice of adversaries if they just wanted to divert attention, no? Or is it like our Kejriwal saying `sab mile hue hain' [everyone is in a conspiracy]?


Breaking out of the first island chain, and then the second island chain, is a long term strategic goal of China's, so I see the merits of keeping the pressure on that front. I don't know what you're talking about with Vladivostok or Mongolia, maybe it's some small timers running their mouths. Mongolia isn't really a concern, and the strategic partnership between China and Russia is deepening by the day. The northern border is as secure as it's probably ever been in Chinese history.


Something that you might want to see about Vladivostok. Quotes the Global Times editor, among others, crying about Vladivostok. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics ... inst-china

Looks like China wants to have hot borders on all sides. And Russia might be having second thoughts on having a good relationship with China. Historically, the northern barbarians have always been hostile to China. Now, add the eastern, southern, north-eastern, south-western and western barbarians whom China is needling, and well ... you get the idea.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby DavidD » 02 Oct 2020 01:57

I see, I didn't hear about that, but that's not likely to be an issue. I mean, even the US and Canada still has actual border disputes. I foresee China and Russia continue to become increasingly aligned in the short to medium term.

As for a previous poster noting strategic goals running counter to other nations' sovereignty, that's often the case in geopolitics, isn't it? It's a common obstacle, and the way to overcome it is power, hard or soft. I think Xi is doing a terrible job in many regards in terms of using hard and soft power, but the strategic goal IMO is correct.

For the Indian border, however, I don't know what the strategic goal is? I mean, what's the end point? What does he want to accomplish if China is the aggressor? I can't tell. Maybe he's really stupid and the reason is not logical, because I can't come up with a logical explanation, but it's hard for me to believe that someone who's able to navigate Chinese politics for decades to rise to the top unscathed is truly stupid.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Oct 2020 02:43

DavidD wrote:I see, I didn't hear about that, but that's not likely to be an issue. I mean, even the US and Canada still has actual border disputes. I foresee China and Russia continue to become increasingly aligned in the short to medium term.

As for a previous poster noting strategic goals running counter to other nations' sovereignty, that's often the case in geopolitics, isn't it? It's a common obstacle, and the way to overcome it is power, hard or soft. I think Xi is doing a terrible job in many regards in terms of using hard and soft power, but the strategic goal IMO is correct.

For the Indian border, however, I don't know what the strategic goal is? I mean, what's the end point? What does he want to accomplish if China is the aggressor? I can't tell. Maybe he's really stupid and the reason is not logical, because I can't come up with a logical explanation, but it's hard for me to believe that someone who's able to navigate Chinese politics for decades to rise to the top unscathed is truly stupid.


I would agree with DavidD here on Vladivostok. 10 years ago Russian equivalents of BRF were agonizing about Far East and China. Over last couple of years I have seen the threads become inactive.

Russia may not be in bed with China but neither is it in bed with us. It will keep playing both for its self interest

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby KLNMurthy » 02 Oct 2020 05:57

DavidD wrote:I see, I didn't hear about that, but that's not likely to be an issue. I mean, even the US and Canada still has actual border disputes. I foresee China and Russia continue to become increasingly aligned in the short to medium term.

As for a previous poster noting strategic goals running counter to other nations' sovereignty, that's often the case in geopolitics, isn't it? It's a common obstacle, and the way to overcome it is power, hard or soft. I think Xi is doing a terrible job in many regards in terms of using hard and soft power, but the strategic goal IMO is correct.

For the Indian border, however, I don't know what the strategic goal is? I mean, what's the end point? What does he want to accomplish if China is the aggressor? I can't tell. Maybe he's really stupid and the reason is not logical, because I can't come up with a logical explanation, but it's hard for me to believe that someone who's able to navigate Chinese politics for decades to rise to the top unscathed is truly stupid.


The implication of what you are politely posing as a question or puzzle is that it is India that is committing aggression, has historically committed aggression, against China. And somehow deceiving the world and maybe even its own population that China is the aggressor. This has been the default Chinese narrative as far back as the 1950s, and hasn't changed, so it wouldn't be a shock hearing it from you.

The most charitable way (from an Indian pov) to interpret Chinese behavior is the long-standing desire (since the 1950s) to have a peaceful and stable Himalayan border to keep Tibet safe, and to achieve that by (a) taking physical control of the boundary region and (b) subjugating / pacifying India so that there is no prospect of India threatening that stability.

From an Indian perspective, there are just as legitimate desires to (a) have a secure Himalayan border, (b) have water security as major Indian rivers originate in that region (c) to afford a substantial measure of honorable freedom for Tibetan Buddhists (whom Indians consider their spiritual brethren) to pursue their religiosity and culture. I am not necessarily talking about the government of India here, but of the feelings of the segment of Indians who pay attention to matters like this. By and large, Indian governments have, at least aspirationally, reflected similar goals.

India has, since the 1950s, tried earnestly to work with China to reconcile their and Chinese goals. But to no avail, because the Chinese want to achieve their goals entirely on their own terms, with complete Indian capitulation. Your own statement above, suggesting that all countries have such aggressive goals impinging on other countries' sovereignities, and it is but natural to exercise force & power to achieve them, is indicative to us of this mindset. Indians, and by extension, India doesn't think that way, they believe friendly compromise on a footing of equality and mutual respect is a real thing.

The Chinese have steadily steadfastly disabused India of this deeply-held notion by their recalcitrance--refusing to even come to a meaningful agreement on what the LAC is, for instance, and by their overt hostility--support for Pakistan, and absolute intransigence in the matter of terrorism by aggressively blocking India's efforts in international fora, for example. We already discussed, in plenty, about outlandish territorial claims (so-called south Tibet) and so-called salami-slicing of Indian territory. India's desire for security on its northern borders (items (a) and (b) above, have routinely been pooh-poohed and ridiculed in Chinese official and semi-official organs.

So, that's the long-term strategic goal of the Chinese--to secure the Himalayan region and do it in such a way that India and its interests do not matter at all.

In the near term, why now? I am surprised that you would be asking that question on this forum, and on this thread, where there has been extensive, detailed and specific analysis of the motivations behind the current spurt of Chinese aggression. I am not going to repeat or summarize it here. I assume you have read it all, and are genuinely not convinced by it (which I don't understand at all, if you are truly as objective as you present yourself, as the facts and analysis are as high-quality as they could be on a forum like this), or you are simply trolling, framing as an innocent question or puzzle your actual view that India is in fact the aggressor (which as I said has been the Chinese view, in which aggression is defined as India having the gall to have its own interests at all, in the face of the desires of the overlords of the Middle Kingdom.), bringing us back to my first paragraph here.

To the extent that Chinese remain oblivious and hostile to India and its interests, and act on that basis, they are succeeding in turning their originally-false idea of an aggressive India into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Indians are a really easygoing and peaceful, live-and-let-live kind of people, but try to subjugate us, and you aren't going to like what happens. That too, in a modern democratic India, where there is no longer a feudal buffer between the external enemy and the common people, with which to hack out superficially honorable terms of vassalhood.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby sudarshan » 02 Oct 2020 06:10

First of all, what is this question of "why would China do this now?" This is just the latest in a series of dozens of China-initiated (salami-slicing) border incidents every year, that we get to hear about (there are probably a lot more that we never hear about). It's normal behavior for China, it just blew up big-time this time.

Maybe David is really asking "why did India blow it up this time, couldn't you let it go like all the other ones?" That would explain his stance that it was India which initiated this incident, by "behaving unreasonably different from all the other past times."

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 02 Oct 2020 08:04

DavidD wrote:As for a previous poster noting strategic goals running counter to other nations' sovereignty, that's often the case in geopolitics, isn't it? It's a common obstacle, and the way to overcome it is power, hard or soft. I think Xi is doing a terrible job in many regards in terms of using hard and soft power, but the strategic goal IMO is correct.

For the Indian border, however, I don't know what the strategic goal is? I mean, what's the end point? What does he want to accomplish if China is the aggressor? I can't tell. Maybe he's really stupid and the reason is not logical, because I can't come up with a logical explanation, but it's hard for me to believe that someone who's able to navigate Chinese politics for decades to rise to the top unscathed is truly stupid.


So now you know and can see that China has compelling strategic reasons/goals for their aggressive behavior against India. And also that you do not understand Indian strategic goals because we do not have a sovereignty impinging motive. This is a u-turn in your own previous analysis of India and China. Stick around in this forum, you may learn more.

It is common in closed coteries like CCP to have a stupid and agreeable common candidate to be nominated to the top as a compromise. It is a known fact that is what happened, given the various prominent contenders at the time of his selection, like Bo Xilai and Li Keqiang etc. Xi was a compromise candidate between the various factions, because he is a pure CCP ideologue and is somewhat acceptable to all of them. But pure CCP communist ideology is a load of crap. Especially with Chinese characteristics because Xi is trying to put Capitalism and Communism in one box which is pure contradiction. This is why I call it Xi Jinping Bipolar Thought.

Xitler and CCP must go. Tell your friends all about it.
Last edited by rajpa on 02 Oct 2020 08:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby ranjbe » 02 Oct 2020 08:11

DavidD wrote:I see, I didn't hear about that, but that's not likely to be an issue. I mean, even the US and Canada still has actual border disputes. I foresee China and Russia continue to become increasingly aligned in the short to medium term.

As for a previous poster noting strategic goals running counter to other nations' sovereignty, that's often the case in geopolitics, isn't it? It's a common obstacle, and the way to overcome it is power, hard or soft. I think Xi is doing a terrible job in many regards in terms of using hard and soft power, but the strategic goal IMO is correct.

For the Indian border, however, I don't know what the strategic goal is? I mean, what's the end point? What does he want to accomplish if China is the aggressor? I can't tell. Maybe he's really stupid and the reason is not logical, because I can't come up with a logical explanation, but it's hard for me to believe that someone who's able to navigate Chinese politics for decades to rise to the top unscathed is truly stupid.


I find this post amusing. Russia (the old Soviet Union) is the original commie state, and taught Mao the basics of building proletarian Utopian paradises for workers and peasants during the first decade of Chinese communist rule. Reading some of the Soviet writers like Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Stalin and then Khrushchev were deeply racist and condescending towards their Chinese junior partners. Mao and other senior Chinese leaders never forgave them, and jumped on the American side during the Afghan war. The rest is history.
Russia has been hammered by US and Western sanctions on Russian companies,individual oligarchs and state bodies after USSR collapsed, and has their pride shattered by the West bringing their immediate neighbors and buffer states under Western orbit (Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus - the list goes on). Russia has been humiliated in the last 25 years. In a survival mode, they have hooked up with their southern neighbor so that they can sell their natural resources without being hassled. However, they have their newest short/medium range Iskander nuclear missiles in Siberia aimed at you know who. They know that things can go sour at short notice. Train convoys carrying raw material for Germany were going westward from the USSR the very day Germany invaded Russia. Russia hasn't forgotten.
China keeps boasting about their economy. Combining the GDP of EU, USA and the five eyes, Japan, India and South Korea plus assorted Latin American countries produces a GDP about four times that of China, and a population about three times China. The best China can hope for in a serious cold/hot war with the West is a couple or more of rogue countries such as Pakistan and North Korea squarely on their side, and Russia staying neutral. Let there be no mistake that if China starts losing, and the West offers enough sweeteners, then Russia will drop China like as a Chinese diplomat said, gum at the bottom of their shoe. The Russians used to boast about capitalists selling them the rope which the Russians would use to hang them. Its amusing that the Chinese still keep using the old saw. Remember what has happened to the Russians.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Anoop » 02 Oct 2020 11:53

DavidD wrote:As for a previous poster noting strategic goals running counter to other nations' sovereignty, that's often the case in geopolitics, isn't it? It's a common obstacle, and the way to overcome it is power, hard or soft.


No!!! Strategic goals running counter to other countries' strategic goals is common and is dealt with using hard and soft power.

Strategic goals running counter to other countries' sovereignty and its pursuit using any combination of hard and soft power, is imperialism.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Suraj » 02 Oct 2020 12:08

I wouldn’t personally spend time arguing about the positioning and views DavidD holds, as long as it is a civil exchange. We aren’t obligated to agree , and we don’t necessarily have to belabor things like sun tzutiapa / ‘strategic goals’ vs sovereignty. For David’s benefit, ‘tzutiapa’ is a take on a similar sounding somewhat crude Hindi word that roughly means mindless nonsense.

There is value in listening quietly to understand the potentially significant gaps in the other sides reasoning and viewpoint . Responding vigorously to assuage a sense of hurt or distaste for some viewpoint can potentially cause interesting opportunities to understand the depth of cognitive dissonance on their part, to be lost .

For example, the rather comically out of touch assumptions of an Indian action motivated by a leader supposedly trying to shore up electoral or political standing, vs the reality of someone with essentially no political challenger .

It is rare that there’s an articulate poster expressing viewpoints from that perspective, but it’s not necessary to always convince them otherwise, when it comes to viewpoints diametrically opposed to our own.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby rajpa » 02 Oct 2020 13:29

Suraj wrote:I wouldn’t personally spend time arguing about the positioning and views DavidD holds, as long as it is a civil exchange. We aren’t obligated to agree , and we don’t necessarily have to belabor things like sun tzutiapa / ‘strategic goals’ vs sovereignty. For David’s benefit, ‘tzutiapa’ is a take on a similar sounding somewhat crude Hindi word that roughly means mindless nonsense.

There is value in listening quietly to understand the potentially significant gaps in the other sides reasoning and viewpoint . Responding vigorously to assuage a sense of hurt or distaste for some viewpoint can potentially cause interesting opportunities to understand the depth of cognitive dissonance on their part, to be lost .

For example, the rather comically out of touch assumptions of an Indian action motivated by a leader supposedly trying to shore up electoral or political standing, vs the reality of someone with essentially no political challenger .

It is rare that there’s an articulate poster expressing viewpoints from that perspective, but it’s not necessary to always convince them otherwise, when it comes to viewpoints diametrically opposed to our own.


I agree that having arguments with folks that have almost diametrically opposite viewpoints is generally fruitless, especially in religion and politics. Typically what happens is the argument drifts into irrational statements, tu tu mein mein, ad hominem etc. But it is not so if both parties believe they are having a rational discussion and continue to maintain the same rational posture.

Let's just say the limits of DavidD's logical and factual reasoning vis-a-vis the India-China situation are quite exposed in his conversation and possibly of others like him who believe that CCP is a sort of benign organization and their objectives are benign as well. As long as such posters can realize their logical errors and imbibe the correct lessons from this exercise, it should be beneficial to both of us.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby pankajs » 02 Oct 2020 17:29

WSJ link embedded ...

https://twitter.com/warren_bass/status/ ... 2956355586
"Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s signature foreign-policy vision, the Belt and Road Initiative, is actually poorly defined and horribly mismanaged," writes @HillmanJE.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Suraj » 02 Oct 2020 21:42

rajpa wrote:But it is not so if both parties believe they are having a rational discussion and continue to maintain the same rational posture.

Of course, as I stated in the prior post, as long as conversation is civil, it is fine. However, as you state yourself, no one is going to change their views in these matters easily. There is no point in pushing. Just "oh really ? that's not how we see it <optional detail level>" is plenty. The goal is to understand and not correct.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Uttam » 02 Oct 2020 22:57

Cross-posted with few more nuggets:

The Imperial Overreach of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Xi Jinping’s signature foreign project is poorly defined, badly mismanaged and visibly failing



Pundits often describe today’s China as uber-strategic, seeing its every move as carefully coordinated, guided by history and focused on the long run. But Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s signature foreign-policy vision, the Belt and Road Initiative, is actually poorly defined and horribly mismanaged. As China pushes ahead with this colossal infrastructure-building spree, it is following in the footsteps of past empires and seriously overreaching.
...........

In the first place, Chinese officials will likely come to regret making Pakistan, in their words, the “flagship” of the Belt and Road Initiative, with some 40 projects, valued at an estimated $25 billion, under way there. Beijing believes that it can succeed in transforming the country after Washington has struggled for decades there. But it shouldn’t count on it.

............over the years, the U.S. has provided Pakistan with more than $80 billion in aid. Last year, the International Monetary Fund bailed out Pakistan for the 22nd time. If neighboring Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, Pakistan is the black hole of foreign assistance.

..........
In its zeal to build, China has backed projects that the U.S. wisely avoided long ago. In 1973, Pakistan asked the U.S. to build a port in Baluchistan, its largest and least-populated region, and offered to provide the U.S. Navy with access to it. “This would probably cost some hundreds of millions of dollars, and the political impact of the project will depend in part on its not being a white elephant,” Henry Kissinger cautioned in a memo that year to President Nixon.

Decades later, China granted Pakistan’s wish and built the port, but very little has arrived at its docks, which remain largely disconnected from urban areas inland. Meanwhile, China’s activities have angered India, which rejects the Belt and Road’s path through territory in the north that Pakistan and India both claim.
.........

On the ground, China’s massive state-owned enterprises, which include seven of the world’s 10 largest construction companies, run the show. These bloated giants often have more personnel, technical expertise and local relationships than the government officials charged with supervising them. Desperate to find new work, these firms want to build projects as soon as possible, regardless of their commercial viability or strategic value.

...........

Indeed, China is walking into a trap of its own design. Globally, most large infrastructure projects cost more than expected, take longer than expected and deliver fewer benefits than expected, according to Oxford University researchers. To further raise the likelihood of failure, China has picked dangerous partners: Most countries participating in the Belt and Road have sovereign-debt ratings that are either junk or not rated.

.............




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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Roop » 03 Oct 2020 06:15

You know, DavidD is a nice guy and all, and unfailingly polite in his debates here, and I commend him for that -- but really are we taking seriously his question of "Why would China pick a fight with India for no reason? What do they have to gain by it?"

The answer to this question is so obvious, and has in any case been covered so extensively in the discussion on this forum so far, that I don't think anyone should waste any more time trying to explain it to DD, or getting him to "buy in". It is IMO really unseemly that people are actually trying to convince DD on this topic, as if his question was sincere. :roll:

You can awaken a sleeping man, but you can't awaken a man who is pretending to be asleep.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby SSridhar » 03 Oct 2020 10:57

50 cities in 25 countries witness protests on Chinese National Day - Economic Times

In India, a national newspaper releases full page advertisement of the country that killed 20 and injured a lot more of our bravehearts just three months back, is holding our territory, is ratcheting up the military posture along LAC, claims more and more of our territory, has been doing salami-slicing forever, helping our enemy in nuclear and terror blackmail, consistently vetoes our entry into international fora, encircles us and is actively engaged in diminishing our influence in our very backyard.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Cyrano » 03 Oct 2020 16:10

Indians have by and large woken up to Chinese propaganda and the advert will have little effect. If the rag makes some moolah from the Chinese, so be it !

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

Postby Lisa » 03 Oct 2020 16:28

^ a bit off tropic, but just out of curiosity, would you have the same attitude if the puki government ran such an ad?


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