Understanding the US - Again

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Singha
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 12 May 2018 21:03

iran has tied up with qatar now as a gateway to the world. it helps that qatar was kicked out of GCC and walled out. turkiye as usual will prgamatically work with iran while making all right anti-iran noises.

iran's biggest advantage is land border and caspian sea to china and russia. it cannot be surrounded and isolated

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby g.sarkar » 13 May 2018 00:33

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 07260.html
Trump and Iran
Time for Europe to Join the Resistance

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal marks the temporary suspension of the trans-Atlantic alliance. What now?
.....
He backed out of the Paris climate agreement while promising a "better deal for America." But nothing came of the promise, neither a plan nor meaningful talks. In Trump's Washington, the only thing that matters is dismantling the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama. Trump also promised to improve Obama's health care plan, but the details are complex and bothersome. So Trump destroyed Obamacare and has done nothing to replace it.Trump wants to bring the Iran regime to its knees with sanctions, but domestic political considerations in Tehran make it unlikely that the country will buckle. Leaders who demonstrate weakness in Iran are discarded. It seems more likely that they will close ranks. Iran-supported groups like Hezbollah are likely to pour fuel on the fire of conflicts in Yemen or Lebanon - as close as possible to Israel's border. Iran presumably won't pursue the path of extreme escalation, since such a path wouldn't be beneficial, but it will likely cease allowing observers into the country, stop providing information on its uranium enrichment activities. It will seek to conceal what the West would like to know.
And what are the benefits of Washington's radical move? There are none. Just chaos where there was once order. Just American capriciousness after decades of stability.
The most shocking realization, however, is one that affects us directly: The West as we once knew it no longer exists. Our relationship to the United States cannot currently be called a friendship and can hardly be referred to as a partnership. President Trump has adopted a tone that ignores 70 years of trust. He wants punitive tariffs and demands obedience. It is no longer a question as to whether Germany and Europe will take part in foreign military interventions in Afghanistan or Iraq. It is now about whether trans-Atlantic cooperation on economic, foreign and security policy even exists anymore. The answer: No. It is impossible to overstate what Trump has dismantled in the last 16 months. Europe has lost its protective power. It has lost its guarantor of joint values. And it has lost the global political influence that it was only able to exert because the U.S. stood by its side. And what will happen in the remaining two-and-a-half years (or six-and-a-half years) of Trump's leadership? There is plenty of time left for further escalation.
....
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 07237.html
Exit from Iran Deal
Trump Strikes a Deep Blow to Trans-Atlantic Ties

With his decision to blow up the Iran deal, U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown Europe into uncertainty and anxiety -- and raised the specter of a new war in the Middle East. One thing is certain: the trans-Atlantic relationship has been seriously damaged.
.....
The American withdrawal from the Iran deal is the most dangerous and cavalier foreign policy decision that a U.S. president has made since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The risk is very real that the move will worsen tensions in an already unstable Middle East and lead to an American-led war against Iran. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was quick to threaten a return to industrial-scale uranium enrichment and few doubt that such an eventuality could lead to conflict. It became abundantly clear early Thursday morning just how tense the situation was, with the most serious confrontation yet between the Iranian Quds Force, operating in Syria, and Israel. Israel claims Iran first fired around 20 missiles at the Golan Heights, an area under Israeli control. The Israeli military says it responded with a massive attack on around 35 Iranian targets within Syria. The possibility of escalation in the region, of course, existed prior to the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal. But the episode makes it clear how dangerous the current situation in the region is.
Attack on Europe's Pride
The mood in Paris, Brussels and Berlin is reminiscent of the period just prior to the war in Iraq. Most of Europe refused to back the U.S. in that conflict, even if the British and the Italians joined then-President George W. Bush in the offensive. This time around, however, the Europeans are united in their desire to preserve the deal with Iran, even if nobody knows how they might be able to. An attack on the Iran deal is an attack on the pride of European foreign policy. To be sure, EU member states often find it impossible to produce a joint statement on overseas developments, such as the U.S. decision to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. But Europe has consistently demonstrated unity on the Iran deal and along with Germany, France and Britain, the EU was a decisive participant in the talks.
.....
More than anything, though, Trump has humiliated Europe to a greater degree than any U.S. president before him. Macron fawned over him recently in the White House, Merkel swung by for a working lunch and British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson also made the trip across the Atlantic in an attempt to save the deal and somehow find some kind of a compromise. But it was all in vain. In the end, Trump backed out of the deal in the most brutal manner possible, with a combative speech and the reintroduction of all sanctions against Iran. He was unable to offer any convincing reasons for why he has chosen this particular moment in time to leave the deal. He wasn't even able to claim that Iran hadn't lived up to its end of the bargain because Tehran has demonstrably adhered to its provisions.
To complete Europe's humiliation, Trump's new U.S. ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell, sent out a tweet this week demanding that German companies immediately begin winding down their operations in Iran. It sounded more like the words of a colonial power issuing orders than those of a diplomat in an allied country.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 13 May 2018 06:32

Wonder what happens if Iran decides to destabilize Baluchistan...

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 13 May 2018 16:47

Another article on declining American power:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 07a681397f

That moment of American hegemony really was impressive, and there are many places where the aura has yet to fade. It will take quite a bit of time for Europeans, not to mention Russians and Chinese, to find their way around U.S. sanctions on Iran, to invent alternative ways to invest, to create new sources of credit outside the existing international banking system. It will take time before the rearmed nations of the Middle East realize that there is no reason, any longer, to consult the U.S. government before going to war. It will take time before U.S. economic policy becomes so erratic that others decide not to preserve the dollar as the reserve currency, or not to reserve a space for Americans at the top table.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 13 May 2018 19:36

modern day lebanese (particularly christian maronites) link themselves to the phoenicians (like liberal iranians do to persians)
the philistinis remain the palestinians
all modern versions of these people see themselves as arabs
there have been a lot of flows of people through this region over the years, but various pockets of original peoples have survived

other arab vs pre arab conflicts remain across the mid east and n africa, e.g. berbers vs moroccan arabs, etc. etc. there are many complications of race, never mind religion

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby kiranA » 13 May 2018 21:45

News came out that trump is working China to help restore zte which almost closed its business after trump ban a week ago . It’s pretty sharp u turn. No such backtracking for India on h1 or h4 visa or even exemptions from proposed tariffs on Indian steel.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 13 May 2018 22:09

I wonder if "Indian steel" exists. From what I hear, the Mittal Steel enterprises insist that they are ****BELGIAN***** company. So GOI may ask them to go check with the Belgian Embassy for help.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby kit » 13 May 2018 23:40

UlanBatori wrote:Wonder what happens if Iran decides to destabilize Baluchistan...


It could well be in their interests to create a bargaining tool vs the pakistanis

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby g.sarkar » 14 May 2018 00:03

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran ... SKCN1IE0M9
WORLD NEWSMAY 13, 2018 / 6:44 AM
Bolton: U.S. sanctions 'possible' on European firms over Iran
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - White House National Security adviser John Bolton on Sunday said U.S. sanctions on European companies that do business with Iran were “possible, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he remained hopeful Washington and its allies could strike a new nuclear deal with Tehran.
Bolton struck a more hawkish tone with his comments in an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union than Pompeo did when he was interviewed on “Fox News Sunday.” U.S. President Donald Trump on May 8 announced that the United States was withdrawing from a 2015 deal negotiated by the Obama administration. So far, China, France, Russia, the U.K., EU and Iran remain in the accord, which placed controls on Iran’s nuclear program and led to a relaxation of American economic sanctions against Iran and companies doing business there.
Bolton, asked whether the United States might impose sanctions on European companies that continue to do business with Iran, told CNN: “It’s possible. It depends on the conduct of other governments.”
Pompeo said he was “hopeful in the days and weeks ahead we can come up with a deal that really works, that really protects the world from Iranian bad behavior, not just their nuclear program, but their missiles and their malign behavior as well.”
Washington’s withdrawal from the Iran deal has upset European allies, cast uncertainty over global oil supplies and raised the risk of conflict in the Middle East.
Germany’s minister for economic affairs, Peter Altmaier, said on Sunday that Berlin will try to “persuade the U.S. government to change its behavior.”
In an interview with ZDF public television, Altmaier noted that the United States has set a 90-day deadline for foreign firms to comply with the return of sanctions and that this period can be used to convince Washington to change course.
.....
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opini ... 08725.html
Closing the deal: The US, Iran, and the JCPOA
US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal is strategically incoherent.

by Payam Mohseni
On May 8, President Donald Trump framed the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a dire necessity, calling attention to the "rotten structure of the current agreement" and promising a new era of allied engagement to devise a more robust deal to constrain Iranian ambitions in the region. Trump's decision, however, is strategically incoherent.
On the one hand, he is preaching the old neoconservative rhetoric - doubling down on hawkish policies towards Iran, signalling regime change, and undertaking unilateral US actions against Iran without the support of key historical allies. On the other, he is practising Fortress America on the cheap - pledging to reduce American commitments to the Middle East, announcing removal of troops from Syria, and demanding US allies in the Middle East share the financial burden of American security umbrellas.
The US withdrawal from the JCPOA has laid bare the strategic contradictions inherent in this approach. The United States has abrogated its leadership position on global nuclear non-proliferation while demanding trust and support from allies. It has also reopened the prospect of Iranian nuclear armament while forfeiting the moral and institutional ammunition the US would need to clinch a better deal.
Analysis: Trump's withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal isolates US
If President Trump does indeed wish to "renegotiate" a better deal, he will find it very difficult to do so without international support. No countries - outside the literal handful of Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain - have supported the US withdrawal from the JCPOA. On the other hand, most of the rest of the world are staunchly supportive of the nuclear deal. The EU High Representative pledged to preserve the JCPOA and underlined the importance of common interests and multilateral approaches to resolving outstanding international issues.
The amount of capital - human, diplomatic, and financial - that the US spent, to enable the "toughest multilateral sanctions in history," in the words of former US Secretary of State John Kerry, is difficult to overestimate. These costs included committing vast internal bureaucratic resources to pursue a complex sanctions regime, and in the international arena, engaging in lobbying campaigns with heavyweights such as China and Russia to pass UN Security Council resolutions against Iran that these countries strongly opposed. Fifteen years of heavy costs incurred by the US and allies have been wasted for no tangible return, all while reopening the Pandora's box of nuclear non-proliferation concerns regarding Iran.
The deal will likely limp on in the short run, sustained by the diplomatic perseverance of the EU and Iranian calculations. However, in the future, the EU will likely be unable to maintain this role in the face of forceful US dissent. In other words, their ability to provide significant economic relief to Iran against the likely wave of US secondary sanctions will be minimal and thus result in the dismemberment of the deal.
......
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby kiranA » 14 May 2018 00:17

UlanBatori wrote:I wonder if "Indian steel" exists. From what I hear, the Mittal Steel enterprises insist that they are ****BELGIAN***** company. So GOI may ask them to go check with the Belgian Embassy for help.


India is worlds second largest steel producer. Exports are around 3 billion USD to USA alone. It doesnt matter where the corporate headquarters are located the tariff is applied on country from where it is exported. ArcelorMittal is indeed an eruropean company.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ArjunPandit » 14 May 2018 00:40

kit wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Wonder what happens if Iran decides to destabilize Baluchistan...


It could well be in their interests to create a bargaining tool vs the pakistanis

wouldnt that work well for US, anyways xina is taking over as new master for mard-e-momins. Xina has a lot of investment in balochistan..chinese companies send me ads on fb for going to the the moon landing in gwa(da)r. Unless of course the rear of a baghi ghulam is what khan is looking for. What is still not clear is how does this impact chabahar

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 14 May 2018 02:16

kiranA wrote:India is worlds second largest steel producer. Exports are around 3 billion USD to USA alone. It doesnt matter where the corporate headquarters are located the tariff is applied on country from where it is exported. ArcelorMittal is indeed an eruropean company.

And so this is no different from the Boston Tea Party. IIRC the tea dumped into the harbor was also from India but the protest was against the British company that was selling it. No skin off India's nose.

As a desi Consul-Jarnail explained it the other din:
"I called up the local VP of this company in ******** and asked him if they would (do something as an Indian company). He said: "ooo, but we consider ourselves to be a Thai company onlee.." For the first time in my diplomatic career I used some choice Hindi expletives, then I was scared that the fellow would complain to MEA about my undiplomatic behavior. But I told him:
Next time your mother or grandmother gets stuck at ********(UlanBator) airport, call the Thai Consulate for help, you &^%$#*!


WTF should India be bothered whether Arcel-Mittor or Inspecteur Hercyoole Pwaarooh gets dumpled in Boston Harbor? Not worth expending Indian negotiating power.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby kiranA » 14 May 2018 02:48

1.The tea in boston tea party was from china

2. The protest was not against company but against taxation by their govt (Americans then were Englishmen) - ironically like a tariff :lol:

3. Mittal makes no steel in india - they have mou but no actual manufacturing

4. The steel in India is largely made by Indian companies who provide jobs to Indian workers

5. Considering tariffs (which are WTO illegal) are selectively employed this can effect Indian jobs , steel plants, capacity utilization etc.

6. So it is certainly something off Indian GOI nose :)

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby panduranghari » 14 May 2018 16:33

habal wrote:
Only in this case khayber is Israel.


Habal ji, thank you for an illuminating post. Posts like these make this forum what they are. Need to put this post in the great posts thread which is dying in the dead GDF. Could the moderators move that thread here?

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Philip » 14 May 2018 16:52

Directorate S.
Directorate S: The CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016 by Steve Coll, Allen Lane.

This is a book that exposes the covert relationship between the CIA,ISI and Taliban ,which gives the true picture of the conflict that is still going
on and the games that the 3 entities have been playing,taking the world and the Afghan people for a ride.The US's duplicity in particular should be a grim reminder to all Indian apologists of the US that it simply cannot be trusted at any cost.Hitching a ride on Uncle Sam's Af-Pak wagon would spell disaster for India.

http://www.asianage.com/books/130518/ma ... -work.html
Magnum opus on AfPak history Of CIA, ISI at work
THE ASIAN AGE. | INDRANIL BANERJIE Published : May 13, 2018,

A substantial part of the book is about the collusion between Pakistan’s military-controlled spy agency, the ISI and the Taliban.
Directorate S: The CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016 by Steve Coll, Allen Lane ,

Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize winning American journalist and author, is no stranger to South Asia. As Washington Post’s South Asia correspondent based in New Delhi, he had covered the region extensively in the 1990s. One focus then and now was Afghanistan where the United States has seen its longest war.

His latest book Directorate S: The CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016 is one outcome of his experiences as was his previous one, Ghost Wars: The secret history of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden from the Soviet invasion to September 10, 2001 (Penguin 2004).

The latest book, a 757-page magnum opus, offers a ringside view of recent history of the Af-Pak region, providing for the first time an insight into the characters and events that shaped events since the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

Narrated in jargon free, journalistic style, the book, despite its bulk, is an easy and compelling read. The author takes the reader from the backrooms of the CIA headquarters to the killing fields of Afghanistan and the war rooms in Pakistan’s Rawalpindi. The result is a book that will be read and referred to by many generations of South Asia experts.

For the Indian reader, there are many takeaways — one being the suggestion that the US government didn’t really go after the Taliban leadership, despite publicly assailing them. In the beginning of the book, Coll writes that the CIA had Taliban supremo Mullah Omar in the crosshairs a number of times but the expected strike call either never came or was turned down. One serious attempt was made on October 7, 2001, but the Taliban chief escaped the bombing.

“Mullah Mohammad Omar’s death on October 7 might have influenced the Taliban’s evolution, given the divided opinions within the movement’s leadership about how to manage their relationship with Al Qaida after the shock on September 11,” writes Coll. “That alternative history might have turned out no better than what actually unfolded, but as the coming decade’s failures and suffering unfolded, the lost opportunity of October 7 gnawed at several of the military and intelligence officers involved that night. “
that Mullah Omar was never seriously targeted by Washington. Even today, the Taliban as a group is not banned by the US, although a few individual members have been designated as terrorists.

This is contrary to the view in New Delhi that Mullah Omar was never seriously targeted by Washington. Even today, the Taliban as a group is not banned by the US, although a few individual members have been designated as terrorists.
While the Pakistani Taliban, Tehrik-e Taliban, is on the State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organisations, the Afghanistan’s Taliban is not. Although Coll does not explicitly spell it out, the real American target in Afghanistan was and continues to be Al Qaida, not the Taliban which is seen as being a proxy of Pakistan, a country whose Afghan agenda Washington considers legitimate.

A substantial part of Coll’s book is about the collusion between Pakistan’s military-controlled spy agency, the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) and the Taliban. Coll feels there were several reasons why the Americans, the CIA included, tolerated the ISI even when they knew of the collusion. The Americans wanted to be “as close to the ISI as possible so that CIA case officers in Islamabad or offshore could identify and recruit ISI officers as unilateral American sources,” he conjectures.

Washington’s continued ambivalence about Pakistan, the ISI and the Taliban is one reason why the Afghan War ticks on, consuming thousands of Afghans every year. The situation within the country even after 17 years of war, as Coll observes, is far from stable: “President Ghani’s initial plan had been to reduce the war’s violence through reconciliation talks with the Taliban and Pakistan, but these efforts had proved to be as treacherous and unproductive for his administration as they had been for the Obama administration’s Conflict Resolution Cell. On the other side of the war, the ISI’s support for the Taliban remained steadfast… by 2016, Major General Muhammad Waseem Ashraf reportedly ran ISI’s Directorate S. On the Afghan front of external operations, his bureaus seemed to follow a policy of providing as much support for the Taliban as ISI could get away with — just enough to keep the war boiling, while avoiding aid so explicit that it might provoke the international community to impose sanctions on Pakistan or withdraw military sales.”

His book concludes with a view of the Panjshir Valley, where Ahmed Shah Massoud’s Tajik fighters had held out against both the Soviets and the Taliban. It was the frontline from where the 2001 assault on the Taliban ruling in Kabul had begun. “Almost 16 years later, Panjshir was once again preparing its defences. As Ghani and Abdullah struggled to govern, as Nato governments and voters questioned the costs and trajectory of aid to Afghanistan, toit was hard avoid the possibility that the Afghan war might be cycling back toward where it began before the American intervention following September 11,” he writes, sounding an ominous reminder of the overt and secret wars still in progress in that part of the world.

Indranil Banerjie is an independent commentator on political and security issues


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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 14 May 2018 19:02

^^^ great book, recommended reading, but no surprises for BRF wallahs!

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 14 May 2018 19:07

mean-e-while

I see tv clips of American ambassador telling the world that the US is fulfilling its promise to the American people to recognise jersualem as the capital of Israel (note: people == evanjehadis)

also, the cohen bank account tamasha is throwing up questions about 'which family was promised a big chunk of a certain Russian energy company in exchange for certain political favours?' and then the inevitable question of 'who benefits from a high oil price?'

and buses roll by the tv cameras with logos of "Trump making Israel great again" - but that doesn't roll of the tongue so neatly...

oh and a few philistines seem to be playing catching practice with live bullets

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby hanumadu » 14 May 2018 21:11

Americans, especially Trump supporters, are getting tired of this whole Trump Russian connection investigation. It's been 1.5 years and there is no progress and I don't believe there will be any progress. Now people don't care whether Trump slept with a ***** star or he paid her and lied about it. The 'liberal' media is getting on people's nerves by it's constant harangue against Trump.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 14 May 2018 22:25

there has been quite a lot of progress actually - there are a number of indictments and guilty pleas
and clearly some degree of nervousness amongst some
the problem is that the findings will be too complicated for mango folks to understand

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 14 May 2018 22:27

latest reports are that 43 dead and almost 2000 wounded in the Palestinian protests today
that's a big number by any standard

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Rudradev » 15 May 2018 03:04

kit wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Wonder what happens if Iran decides to destabilize Baluchistan...


It could well be in their interests to create a bargaining tool vs the pakistanis


No way this will happen. Keeping China happy is more important to the Iranians now than it ever was. And China wants a quiet Baluchistan for CPEC.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby kit » 15 May 2018 03:12

Rudradev wrote:
kit wrote:
It could well be in their interests to create a bargaining tool vs the pakistanis


No way this will happen. Keeping China happy is more important to the Iranians now than it ever was. And China wants a quiet Baluchistan for CPEC.


a spanner in the works and a screw to turn from time to time would be better than being a good boy keeping quiet (or rather eating the cake and having it redux ) !! That is the now infamous "paki doctrine"

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Rudradev » 15 May 2018 03:15

From time to time, sure. That time is definitely not now (or the foreseeable future, if EU nations are coerced into backing Trump's sanction regime).

Russia too has decided to stay neutral in the Israel-vs-Iran jollies currently under way in Syria. Which means, for Tehran, China is the only game in town.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Kashi » 15 May 2018 08:52

UlanBatori wrote:Wonder what happens if Iran decides to destabilize Baluchistan...


Wouldn't it lead to a call for greater Baluchistan including Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province?

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 15 May 2018 18:40

Ru and Ch have backed the iran deal
and Iranian hardliners are using the decision to 'prove' to the faithful that the word of the great satan is not to be trusted
if trump is indeed blustering to get a better deal, what could/does this better deal look like?

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 16 May 2018 10:03

the Noko-Xi combo have clanged the monkey trap shut on Trump :rotfl:
I had predicted they would use the gameplay perfected by TSP and they have lol

now DT who had bragged about noko as a major policy success of his school of diplomacy has to
- suck it up and withdraw from summit , with massive loss of face and a bitter Soko
- suck it up, and give more concessions to make it happen

else noko will resume the festivities with a nukular test on summit day.

Xi will twist the knife until protests break out in Soko for the US to withdraw first from DMZ and then from Soko itself to ensure a brotherly peace and future unification.

well played saar

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 16 May 2018 14:24

Xi-Jonga combo have split SoKo from unkil - or at least driven a firm wedge into public opinion
plus - 'see what they did to Libya! see what they are doing to iran!!' factor
plus - Bolton has been specifically pointed out as a problem by Jonga
DoD and the remnants of Foggy Bottom must be tearing their hair out

mikey-Pee (pompeo) will have a fun meeting in Seoul!

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 16 May 2018 14:27

meanwhile UAE and Qatar have pretty much said that they bribed Kushner
and the Chinese are dropping big hints that they just bribed the orange one to back off on sanctions with a certain telecoms firm

meanwhile the Devos-Pruitt combo are making Bihar politics look good
all iz vell

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 16 May 2018 15:42


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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 16 May 2018 20:10

the key is "denculearisation of the Korean peninsula"
that means jonga gives up his lab and prototypes and ding dongs (under Xi umbrella)
and the US has to move nukes and probably THAAD out of SOKO
can't see the US agreeing to that

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 16 May 2018 21:46

just as public opposition to nato nukes in germany led to their withdrawal (iirc), and huge protests in UK wrt same...I think the Soko peacenik/unification movement will be soon very cash rich due to Sinic funding.

Japan anyway will not allow. philippine will not allow.

so the next best and only location in the vicinity in guam , followed by naval holdings on vessels.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 16 May 2018 23:43

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... cy/559130/
Birth of a new American Aristocracy.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 17 May 2018 00:48

Steve Coll wrote a 750 page book for simple two line fact
CIA Non state Actors= ISI
ISI Non State Actors = Taliban.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 17 May 2018 02:56

DT can pull the mat out from under the other side **AND*** the worst enemy (donkeystanis) by simply postponing the SoKo military exercise for a couple of months beyond the Summit.

Maybe toofan season is coming up there anyway.
As for Eyeran Deal, my prediction is a Summit between Nut&Yahoo and Ayatollah.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Mort Walker » 17 May 2018 05:38

UlanBatori wrote:DT can pull the mat out from under the other side **AND*** the worst enemy (donkeystanis) by simply postponing the SoKo military exercise for a couple of months beyond the Summit.

Maybe toofan season is coming up there anyway.
As for Eyeran Deal, my prediction is a Summit between Nut&Yahoo and Ayatollah.


DT wants peace. The problem is that his NSA - John Bolton is a war hawk and has pulled the mat out under DT by openly stating the DPRK go the Libya way. Those with vested interest such as the war hawks and China appeasers are now running policy again. DPRK will go back to the same-old, with SoKo and Japan buying US weapons and security; and preparation for war with Iran will be ramped up after a year of sanctions. I just listened to Israeli VP on NPR stating they want good relations with Arab Sunni states and Iran is the problem. This time there will be a coalition of the Sunni Arab states + Israel who will attack Iran, followed by the US. The US is strategically roughly in the same place where it would be if HRC had won back in 2016. The only difference is that DT is pugnacious and HRC would have used more soothing words to get into the same situation.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 17 May 2018 05:59

Usa has allegedly fought more wars in its 250 years history than any other country

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Philip » 17 May 2018 08:51

Great summing up of the book Ramana! A new geo-strategic algebraic equation.

Let's see if the EU led by the Germans can show the US the upturned finger and revolt despite the actions of Bolt the dolt.
Our Dy.Min for Foreign Affairs is in NoKo. Gen VKS has met his counterpart.We're not losing time in the fast- changing world, esp. relevant if Stumpy calls off the Spore summit if the US insists on NoKo committing N- harakiri like Gadhaffi.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 17 May 2018 17:30

the UK public protests against cruise missiles and tactical nukes were big indeed, however the cruise missile's inherent destabilising effect on MAD totally upset the balance with the Soviets and were I believe ultimately withdrawn as a part of START or SALT I or II or whatever that agreement was called. the cruise missile's mission was changed after that I believe to a non nuclear one. although I am sure that nuke capable tomahawks are still around - and possibly some sort of understanding with the Russians about the use of such sub-strategic weapons

read an editorial today which asked the question - does trump value Bolton more than the headlines from a noko deal? a good question indeed

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 17 May 2018 17:34

Singha wrote:Usa has allegedly fought more wars in its 250 years history than any other country


even if you discount the wars against native American entities the number remains quite large

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 17 May 2018 17:38

the other thing to factor in is that with recognition of Jerusalem as the capital (to basically shore up the evangelical support - most of whom don't like jews anyway) the US has shut the door on a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem
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