All fine, but... someone who held on and buried 1$ in a cookie jar 1978 without converting it to rupees (declaring that India is a loser), now has 74 rupees, convertible quite freely.
Consider that in 1978 a round-trip econ class air ticket India-US was around $1000. Rs. 6000. Or maybe that was just 1-way, with 2-way being maybe 1.5 times that. Today the round-trip ticket can be bought for around ... $1000. Rs. 74,000.
Yes, I know, interest rates have been higher on rupees than dollars over those years, but so have tax rates. After hearing all the declarations of Econ experts I fail to see how this simple equation above, is good for Indians, given that Indians do have to live in an increasingly global market. Most of Indian Economics Expert Writings appear to assume that only the zillionaire Exporters and Importers and Bankers matter, the aam desi who gets a salary in rupees and stays honest, is not even on the radar of these econ calculations.
A declining rupee hurts, as far as I can see.
Yes, if India decided to completely isolate itself from the world India could survive - sort-of. That was the theory of 1947 - 1980. But is not going to grow much.
True that very few items in the Shopping Centres have Made In USA labels unless it is USA, Village Niyar Mumbai, where they made Parkar pens. Now maybe they make Appal computers. But one fighter plane or Radar System is equivalent to a very large number of VIP Jattis, hain? And Oil and Nuclear Fuel are still traded in dollars.
People who point out this simple stark reality are told that they don't know REAL High-Funda Economics. I am happy that I do not: following those Econ experts hasn't produced a whole lot of improvement except for the exporters, smugglers and politicians who take bribes from all. The rupee WAS worth two cents fairly recently, now it is about 1.5 cents.
This is why I say that eliminating energy imports (except as exchanges to optimise quality of fuel for each refinery etc) is essential for Independence. Weapons imports will be needed because weapons get smarter, faster than Indian R&D and deployment/acquisition can keep up (thank Al*ah for that, the alternative is a war environment).
On oil, yes, Electrics need to be pursued aggressively and its being done. Give it another 5 years and at least India may be oil free. Evidence, OPEC has already lowered demand forecast for 2019.
India has ton of tools, ways and means to respond, and levers to pull.
THAT is not a "casual view" of the situation?
There is a saying in the yakherding community:
The Optimist fell ten storeys
At each window bar
He called out to his friends:
ALL RIGHT SO FAR!!!
Lots of ways to decelerate. But is any being pursued in time to arrest the fall? Any real hope at the present direction and rate of progress?
Wait! Another large Delegation of Politicians is flying to USA on 1-month Phakt-Phinding Mijjun to tell US entities to send more money to India! Spending vast amounts of phoren exchange like its going out of style.
Local Consulate sends me notice of these things two days ahead, demanding that drop everything and "make sure at least 20 ppl come to the event from your contacts".
Local Overseas Friends of (Desis) demand that I drop everything and lead a campaign to tell desis that India is a Great and Growing Economy because.... rupee is down below 70 and sliding, and foreign exchange reserves are down to some dismal level.
I told them that if people could believe that it will come back to 30 to the dollar in say 3 years, people would invest like an avalanche. No help needed from me.
I have a very long and full documentation of exactly every Mongolian dollar I ever converted to rupees, and what interest that earned and what taxes I paid. No need for Econ PhD to see that trail: elementary school arithmetic is good enough. I remember being very angry when the US Immigration/Customs guy at the airport once said in a fine chatty mood:
Oh! India! That's where you have Rupees! I learned in class the other day that the Real Value of the rupee will be reached when it comes down to about 50 to the dollar. At the time it was a lofty 30 to the dollar.
Most recently it was 74, and yes, I still bought. I have faith. Or stupidity. Or whatever. Or maybe I believe that US dollar will crash DOWN to where it is 1:1 with the rupee as some desi hotshot Patriots have been claiming.
BTW, what happens when 80% of those EyeTee jaabs are replaced by Artificial Intel software generation? Yes, you need more EyeTees to write THOSE, but I think the idea that you have an army of people who depend on someone outside the country to do the enterprise-generation and innovation to employ your body-shop product, is also subject to the laws of thermodynamics. You can only come as high as equilibrium with the rest of the world.