Understanding the US - Again

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UlanBatori
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Oct 2018 18:38

Rsi-Triji:

All fine, but... someone who held on and buried 1$ in a cookie jar 1978 without converting it to rupees (declaring that India is a loser), now has 74 rupees, convertible quite freely.

Consider that in 1978 a round-trip econ class air ticket India-US was around $1000. Rs. 6000. Or maybe that was just 1-way, with 2-way being maybe 1.5 times that. Today the round-trip ticket can be bought for around ... $1000. Rs. 74,000.

Yes, I know, interest rates have been higher on rupees than dollars over those years, but so have tax rates. After hearing all the declarations of Econ experts I fail to see how this simple equation above, is good for Indians, given that Indians do have to live in an increasingly global market. Most of Indian Economics Expert Writings appear to assume that only the zillionaire Exporters and Importers and Bankers matter, the aam desi who gets a salary in rupees and stays honest, is not even on the radar of these econ calculations.
A declining rupee hurts, as far as I can see.
Yes, if India decided to completely isolate itself from the world India could survive - sort-of. That was the theory of 1947 - 1980. But is not going to grow much.

True that very few items in the Shopping Centres have Made In USA labels unless it is USA, Village Niyar Mumbai, where they made Parkar pens. Now maybe they make Appal computers. But one fighter plane or Radar System is equivalent to a very large number of VIP Jattis, hain? And Oil and Nuclear Fuel are still traded in dollars.

People who point out this simple stark reality are told that they don't know REAL High-Funda Economics. I am happy that I do not: following those Econ experts hasn't produced a whole lot of improvement except for the exporters, smugglers and politicians who take bribes from all. The rupee WAS worth two cents fairly recently, now it is about 1.5 cents.

This is why I say that eliminating energy imports (except as exchanges to optimise quality of fuel for each refinery etc) is essential for Independence. Weapons imports will be needed because weapons get smarter, faster than Indian R&D and deployment/acquisition can keep up (thank Al*ah for that, the alternative is a war environment).

On oil, yes, Electrics need to be pursued aggressively and its being done. Give it another 5 years and at least India may be oil free. Evidence, OPEC has already lowered demand forecast for 2019.

India has ton of tools, ways and means to respond, and levers to pull.


THAT is not a "casual view" of the situation? :eek:

There is a saying in the yakherding community:

The Optimist fell ten storeys
At each window bar
He called out to his friends:
ALL RIGHT SO FAR!!!

Lots of ways to decelerate. But is any being pursued in time to arrest the fall? Any real hope at the present direction and rate of progress?
Wait! Another large Delegation of Politicians is flying to USA on 1-month Phakt-Phinding Mijjun to tell US entities to send more money to India! Spending vast amounts of phoren exchange like its going out of style.
Local Consulate sends me notice of these things two days ahead, demanding that drop everything and "make sure at least 20 ppl come to the event from your contacts".

Local Overseas Friends of (Desis) demand that I drop everything and lead a campaign to tell desis that India is a Great and Growing Economy because.... rupee is down below 70 and sliding, and foreign exchange reserves are down to some dismal level.
I told them that if people could believe that it will come back to 30 to the dollar in say 3 years, people would invest like an avalanche. No help needed from me.
(sorry, frustration...)
I have a very long and full documentation of exactly every Mongolian dollar I ever converted to rupees, and what interest that earned and what taxes I paid. No need for Econ PhD to see that trail: elementary school arithmetic is good enough. I remember being very angry when the US Immigration/Customs guy at the airport once said in a fine chatty mood:
Oh! India! That's where you have Rupees! I learned in class the other day that the Real Value of the rupee will be reached when it comes down to about 50 to the dollar. At the time it was a lofty 30 to the dollar. :roll:


Most recently it was 74, and yes, I still bought. I have faith. Or stupidity. Or whatever. Or maybe I believe that US dollar will crash DOWN to where it is 1:1 with the rupee as some desi hotshot Patriots have been claiming.

BTW, what happens when 80% of those EyeTee jaabs are replaced by Artificial Intel software generation? Yes, you need more EyeTees to write THOSE, but I think the idea that you have an army of people who depend on someone outside the country to do the enterprise-generation and innovation to employ your body-shop product, is also subject to the laws of thermodynamics. You can only come as high as equilibrium with the rest of the world.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Rahul M » 13 Oct 2018 21:18

UlanBatori wrote:See the 3 figures here. They tell the sickening story of economic suicide.
http://www.stratcepts.com/1AKC2019/WhyIndia.html

funnily enough, the site blocks Indian IP's, or at least my Indian IP. had to go the proxy way to open it.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 14 Oct 2018 07:06

Karthik S wrote:Guys any interest or discussion on possible sanctions on India as mentioned by DT today?

We should discuss this in India US thread. Please start the discussion

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Oct 2018 20:28

It appears Mattis will be gone after elections in Nov. He was the one pushing for sanctions waiver for India, Vietnam and others who buy Russian weapon systems. My guess is CAATSA related sanctions will be announced on India following Mattis's departure.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 14 Oct 2018 21:34

Mort, I think this Rahul's crusade against Rafale is US backed with multiple levels of Inception. Quo bono leads you there.

Defacto CAATSA of French.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Mort Walker » 15 Oct 2018 00:20

ramana wrote:Mort, I think this Rahul's crusade against Rafale is US backed with multiple levels of Inception. Quo bono leads you there.

Defacto CAATSA of French.


Do you think it is directly backed by the US government or proxies like the US MIC? Perhaps a combination of both. A deep understanding of INC financing will be needed. The Foreign Contributions Regulations Act of India, back in March of this year, has exempted for political party foreign financing. I though this was a bad move by the Modi government.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Gyan » 15 Oct 2018 08:45

The main problem of Indian Economy is super massive onslaught of underinvoiced cheap dumped Chinese Goods.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Oct 2018 21:52

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... me/570832/
Newt Gingrich turned partisan battles into bloodsport, wrecked Congress, and paved the way for Trump's rise. Now he's reveling in his achievements.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 15 Oct 2018 23:34

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/11/newt-gingrich-says-youre-welcome/570832/
Newt Gingrich turned partisan battles into bloodsport, wrecked Congress, and paved the way for Trump's rise. Now he's reveling in his achievements.



Arun, There is inherent weakness in Western history since the Greeks. The defeat of an enemy results in the end of the victor.
Examples:
- Greece after defeat of Persia
- Rome after defeat of Carthage
So on and so forth.

- Defeat of Soviet Union in Cold War is unleashing the restrained forces.

Its very important these are examined and neutralized.

Caroll Quigley in his study "Evolution of Civilizations" also charts similar rise and decline.
He has given a seven step process to identify.

SUMMARY: The rise and fall of civilizations usually occurs in seven stages:
Mixture
Gestation
Expansion
Age of conflict
Universal Empire
Decay
Invasion

A requirement for expansion is the accumulation of capital by a group or organization that can invest in expansion, a feature which strictly egalitarian societies lack. "This surplus-creating instrument does not have to be an economic organization. In fact, it can be any kind of organization, military, political, social, religious, and so forth."...


When the instrument of expansion gets blocked it faces decline.

A civilization’s decline is not inevitable but occurs when its instrument of expansion is transformed into an institution—that is, when social arrangements that meet real social needs are transformed into social institutions serving their own purposes regardless of real social needs.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Rudradev » 16 Oct 2018 05:09

ramana wrote:
Caroll Quigley in his study "Evolution of Civilizations" also charts similar rise and decline.
He has given a seven step process to identify.

SUMMARY: The rise and fall of civilizations usually occurs in seven stages:
Mixture
Gestation
Expansion
Age of conflict
Universal Empire
Decay
Invasion

A requirement for expansion is the accumulation of capital by a group or organization that can invest in expansion, a feature which strictly egalitarian societies lack. "This surplus-creating instrument does not have to be an economic organization. In fact, it can be any kind of organization, military, political, social, religious, and so forth."...


When the instrument of expansion gets blocked it faces decline.

A civilization’s decline is not inevitable but occurs when its instrument of expansion is transformed into an institution—that is, when social arrangements that meet real social needs are transformed into social institutions serving their own purposes regardless of real social needs.


Very true. And the decline of one civilization can offer openings for the seeding of another. Do consider my post here: viewtopic.php?p=2300324#p2300324 in this context.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 16 Oct 2018 09:25

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/ ... -sanctions
As Russia courts India, help from a surprising corner: US sanctions
Amid today’s galloping global disorder, questions about one of Asia’s most important emerging powers, India, and where it fits into today’s rapidly shifting geopolitical equations, seem to be getting short shrift. But not from Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is currently in New Delhi, holding his second summit meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi so far this year.
The agenda is packed with huge arms deals and other traditional items. But for Mr. Putin, the underlying challenge is how to win back the allegiance of one of Moscow’s staunchest Soviet-era friends. And this at a time when growing Russian-Chinese strategic unity is making India increasingly nervous, and as ongoing US efforts to win over Indians leave Russia consistently lagging the US in Indian public opinion polls.
But as Putin makes the rounds in New Delhi, with a large Russian business delegation in tow, one of the things working in his favor is the Trump administration’s new determination to crack down hard on anyone breaking US sanctions on Russia and Iran, two of India’s major trading partners.
Just last month Washington slapped tough “secondary sanctions” on China for purchasing Russian S-400 air defense systems and fighter planes. Not coincidentally, the main deal Putin and Mr. Modi plan to sign at this summit is a $5 billion sale of Russian S-400 missiles to bolster Indian air defenses. “We are in a new situation,” says Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at the independent Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “Since 2014, when Russia’s crisis with the West grew acute over Crimea and other issues, the Russians have been moving closer to China. India has been working to diversify its global relationships. The US has been trying to woo India to become more of a counterbalance to China in Asia, and they have been winning the public relations war over Russia.”
.....
“Russia is seen as a reliable standby partner for India, one that has a solid track record with us,” says Vinay Shukla, Russia editor for India Strategic, a New Delhi-based monthly defense journal. “When India came out as a nuclear weapons power in 1998, practically the whole world put sanctions on us. But Russia didn’t. That is remembered.” Indian analysts say that the looming threat of US sanctions for purchasing new Russian military equipment is viewed as a problem that cannot be solved by caving in to US demands, but rather by finding ways to avoid using the US dollar as a means of payment. That could mean India will join a growing list of countries, including the European Union, who are creating alternative financial vehicles to avoid the growing thicket of US sanctions and continue trading with countries like Iran and Russia.
....
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Slightly older alter article:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... anian-oil/
India to sidestep U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil
By Dan Boylan, September 4, 2018
Indian public sector oil refiners could soon start sidestepping U.S. sanctions against Tehran’s petroleum industry by importing Iranian oil from Iranian tankers. Reports over the weekend detailed an Iran-India deal in which Tehran will arrange tankers and insurance because India’s top shipper, Shipping Corp of India (SCI), had begun halting oil shipments fearing re-imposed U.S. sanctions. Washington has been re-imposing economic penalties on Tehran since President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal in May. In a bid to slash Iranian oil experts to zero, U.S. sanctions on Iranian petroleum are scheduled to start in November. Mr. Trump has warned that those anyone who does not cut their economic ties to Iran will “risk severe consequences”. The high-stakes gambit appears to be working, with scores of major international companies, including France’s supermajor oil and gas company Total and car maker Renault, ending their business with Tehran. In the oil markets, there is also “an emerging pattern” showing that “U.S. sanctions are succeeding in throttling Iran’s sales to its customers even before the measures take effect in early November” Bloomberg reported this weekend.
However, the two top buyers of Iranian crude — China and India — appear to be throwing the Islamic Republic a lifeline. This weekend’s move by New Delhi to keep Iranian oil flowing, according to analysts, is similar to a push in China where buyers are shifting nearly all their Iranian oil imports to ships owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC) — with Tehran offering almost free shipping and an extended credit period. The agreement, according to Reuters, also sees Iran providing insurance, an issue due to the non-availability of coverage by Western insurers because of the re-imposed sanctions.
.......
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 16 Oct 2018 20:33

American brass-knuckle politics.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... up/570802/
Was Gary Hart Set Up?

What are we to make of the deathbed confession of the political operative Lee Atwater, newly revealed, that he staged the events that brought down the Democratic candidate in 1987?
Probably too old for most BRFers to remember.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Oct 2018 21:45

New low: Elizabeth Warren on road to soosai vest.
"1 part Native American in 1024". Orangutan seems to have uncannily accurate info on these things, to go out and make outrageous challenges. Seems like a very strong case of fake credentials used in lying on college application to claim "quota" admission too. I am surprised: this bibi seemed to be "on the ball" much more than the rest of the donkey crowd. Should have got the Ford Bibi with her contacts, to do the DNA test done by the same ones who did her Lie Detector test.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 16 Oct 2018 21:49

Guptaji,
Similar tactics could have been used to discredit Democratic contenders John Kerry and John Edwards. With time juicy stories are revealed.
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 16 Oct 2018 22:55

watch "Get me Roger Stone" - the ways of Washington will be made clear...

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 16 Oct 2018 23:24

While he might be setup he did give lot of content for NYT and WaPo to bring him down.
Very flaky politician. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hart

To his credit he did foresee the airplanes being used by terrorists and gave ample warnings of that before 911 attacks.
As usual they were ignored.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby disha » 16 Oct 2018 23:55

^ Hart's campaign manager appears to be dumb. In midst of a political campaign letting your candidate to climb up a boat called 'Monkey Business' with young blonde women in tow to an exotic island called bimini (which sounds like the other island - bikini) and getting photographed and the same woman is seen going through the front door in front of the entire news corps but not seen leaving leading to further speculation - I would say it becomes controversial in any age.

It is just that the electorate have now realized to look beyond the personal failings of the president. Heck even the former first lady had a very ambiguous response to Monica affair in #metoo controversy and has obviously looked beyond the "failings on the personal side" of the ex-president (both before and after).

John Edwards -> he was a leech to begin with and remained a leech. People saw through it and that doomed his presidency.

John Kerry -> his inspirational speeches are legendary.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 17 Oct 2018 00:33

Dishaji,
The fact is that they (Edwards and Kerry) were not any worse in character than Presidents Clinton, Bush or Trump. Not much to choose from this group, I am afraid. The defeat came by clever and well thought out tactics by the opposition. Especially the Swift boat veterans was a masterful move.
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Oct 2018 01:32

SeeEnnEnn :((
Donald Trump just called Stormy Daniels 'horseface.' Don't act surprised.


I think the courts already showed what they think of Daniels' extortion schemes. The $145K that was supposed to have been given to her to keep her mouth shut, is now to be returned with compound interest as lawyer fees. Dangerous game, being a known hooker, dissing a well-paying customer and trying to extort from him - esp a POTUS.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Singha » 17 Oct 2018 08:10

the future of war . a good read with rogue warrior photos. a pvt american co staffed with SF veterans tied up with the UAE govt for targeted killings in Yemen

good drone video. the bomb was undersized and nearly took out the UAE govt MRAP instead that was positioned for escaping.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ar ... gc#4ldqpgc

abraham golan and some team members

Image

the article says due to GOAT staring from 911, there are some 70,000 ex-SOCOM of military age at present....and segments of these are ones who find good paying work in private "security consulting" - everything from close protection detail, risk assessment, high value cargo delivery, espionage, .... and now this extreme form of work. add to that known wildcats like the french foreign legion and british SAS types.

hotel lobbies in a broad swathe from caracas through mombasa through aden through banda aceh must be awash in these people.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Manish_P » 17 Oct 2018 08:59

UlanBatori wrote:Dangerous game, being a known hooker, dissing a well-paying customer and trying to extort from him


Yeah. Who did she think she was.. Pakistan !?!

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Oct 2018 08:59

^^+100. That would be "Horse's Democrat".

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 17 Oct 2018 14:27

the war in yemen is very very ugly - mass starvation on the horizon on top of indiscriminate bombing of civilians
west are happy to back Saudis on this and facilitate abuses
same old same old

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ArjunPandit » 17 Oct 2018 14:50

Lalmohan wrote:the war in yemen is very very ugly - mass starvation on the horizon on top of indiscriminate bombing of civilians
west are happy to back Saudis on this and facilitate abuses
same old same old

True, but surprisingly for last few days I have been seeing lot of coverage of war in yemen after india's air/sealifts. Whenever I see such drastic changes, I always think, what drives it? what's the agenda

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 17 Oct 2018 15:39

https://theprint.in/opinion/as-us-and-c ... in/135549/
As US and China battle it out, India stands to gain
ANANTH KRISHNAN, 17 October, 2018
It could set China back 10 years,” a Chinese executive told me with a shake of the head, over a recent lunch in Beijing. China’s trade war with the United States, now more than 90 days old, has been the hottest topic of conversation in recent weeks in the Chinese capital. And in contrast from the public posture of calm and confidence exuded by the Xi Jinping government, there is, among executives and scholars, growing unease.
Initially, Beijing brushed off Trump as a temporary nuisance. Officials said privately they could “manage” him, seeing him as a transactional real estate tycoon who could be bought with one or two big-ticket deals, and a few large doses of flattery. When Trump visited Beijing in November, Xi broke protocol for what his advisers called a first-ever “state visit-plus”, opening up an inner sanctum of the Forbidden City for a lavish dinner. Trump became the first foreign leader to dine there, an experience he later described as one of his life’s greatest memories. Mission accomplished – or so Xi’s advisers thought.
Nearly a year later, those expectations have been belied. Since then, we’ve seen tariffs targeting Chinese imports worth $250 billion. Most worryingly for China, they are targeting high-tech sectors where China is still reliant on US technology, even as the Xi government speeds up its ambitious ‘Made in China 2025’ plan to make China self-sufficient in these sectors. But underlining how far it has to go, Trump’s sanctions temporarily brought one of China’s biggest tech companies, ZTE, to its knees.
Now, Xi may find himself in the unusual position of coming under fire for underestimating the Trump threat. Even if dissent can’t be public in Xi’s China, privately, many in China Inc. are far from happy. Their worst fears were confirmed in US Vice President Mike Pence’s 4 October speech at the Hudson Institute that, for the first time, laid out in detail the Trump administration’s China policy. Pence’s speech didn’t receive much attention in India, but merits it. He outlined a drastically different approach to China – and a sharp break from the China policy that was generally followed, albeit with some shifts, from the Clinton administration’s time. That approach to China was based on one large bet: that integrating China into the global system, starting with its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), would ultimately foster economic liberalisation — that would benefit Western companies and open China’s market — and political liberalisation, with the Communist Party being forced to cede space to the new middle class that would grow as a result of the reforms.
Increasingly, it’s clear that both these expectations have, to varying degrees, been misplaced. Many US companies are increasingly counting the costs of doing business there, from forced technology transfers to what they see as a worsening business environment. On the political front, Xi’s rise has only underlined how American thinking has been drastically wrong on the Communist Party’s appetite for reform. For Xi, “reform” doesn’t mean political liberalisation in the Western sense, but is merely aimed at strengthening party control. Under Barack Obama, the US policy of supporting China’s rise went even further, with Beijing famously dubbed a “responsible stakeholder” in the global system.
Now, as Pence puts it in his 4 October speech, the US has “adopted a new approach to China”. In short, this sees China unequivocally as a competitor and threat to American interests. It is, what some strategists are calling, a “decoupling” to disentangle what had become an increasingly interconnected relationship, especially on the economic front. “Previous administrations made this choice in the hope that freedom in China would expand in all forms… but that hope has gone unfulfilled,” Pence said. Previous administrations, he continued, “all but ignored China’s actions – and in many cases, they abetted them”. “But those days,” he warned, “are over”.
......
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 17 Oct 2018 16:46

True, but surprisingly for last few days I have been seeing lot of coverage of war in yemen after india's air/sealifts. Whenever I see such drastic changes, I always think, what drives it? what's the agenda


as always difficult to say but the Yemenis are open to the media whereas the Saudis are not
and the media will go anywhere for dramatic images

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Oct 2018 20:54

If I were a papparazzi I would catch the first flight out of KSA. Or UAE.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 17 Oct 2018 21:58

GD, Many British soldiers trained in WWII and Malaya were cannon fodder for mercenaries in Africa.
looks like GOAT is producing US soldiers into same profession.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby habal » 17 Oct 2018 22:23

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... -attention

China has even instituted its own petroyuan market, and the first shipments of oil from the Middle East to China paid for through a petroyuan contract occurred in August of this year. Mainstream economists like to point out the small portion of the global oil market that the petroyuan represents, but they seem to have missed the bigger picture entirely. The issue is, now an alternative to the petrodollar exists where none existed before.

As part of the effort to undermine U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, the EU has established a program to construct a new SWIFT system outside of U.S. influence. It is a model that Russia, China and Iran have agreed to participate in, and the news has gone mostly ignored by the mainstream. The Wall Street Journal begrudgingly reported on the development but dismissed it as ineffective in thwarting U.S. sanctions. And this seems to be the consensus among the MSM – to shrug off or ignore the implications of an alternative SWIFT….”
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JUST IN: #Venezuela drops US dollar, will use euro for international transactions

https://on.rt.com/9gmg

Venezuela drops US dollar, will use euro for international transactions
Published time: 16 Oct, 2018 18:45
Edited time: 17 Oct, 2018 08:14

Venezuela is abandoning the US dollar, with all future transactions on the Venezuelan exchange market to be made in euro, Tareck El Aissami, the country’s Vice President for Economy, announced.
The sanctions, recently introduced by Washington against Caracas, “block the possibility of continuing to trade using the US dollar on the Venezuelan exchange market,” El Aissami said, adding that the American restrictions were “illegal and against international law.” …

https://www.rt.com/news/441448-venezuel ... -currency/

According to this article the dollar has gone from being used in around 90% of all international trade to “two-thirds” 66%. That’s a 24% decrease in 21 months.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/global-de ... my/250111/

Even the Saudis threatened the Americans with attacking the petro-dollar a few days back, showing how even the Saudis know the vulnerability of the US.

“An oil barrel may be priced in a different currency, Chinese yuan, perhaps, instead of the dollar. And oil is the most important commodity traded by the dollar today.”

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/ ... tself.html

These are the words of Turki AlDakhil, a senior Saudi official a few days ago.
-------------
Even the EU is indignant over the fact that the world’s most essential resources are nominated in dollars. President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker billed it “absurd that Europe pays for 80 per cent of its energy import bill — worth €300 billion a year — in US dollars when only roughly 2 per cent of our energy imports come from the United States.” “It is absurd that European companies buy European aircraft for dollars, not euros,” Juncker stated.”

https://sputniknews.com/asia/2018101010 ... -currency/

This year the EU showed defiance of the US and started trading with Iran in Euros to pay for Iranian oil.

UlanBatori
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Oct 2018 00:15

The dollar has peaked? The general advice on this dhaga way back was that the US aircraft carrier and long range missile fleets are to deter these ideas. Is it true that demand for the dollar is mainly due to the oil market transaction currency status? If that were the case, why is the pound sterling still holding its own (in a rough sense)? Shouldn't it have collapsed long-since? The sun has set long ago over the Bishi* Empyah, except for the Falklands and Bermuda, hain? People don't buy Travelers' Cheques any more.

Is the Currency of International Trade any more important for wealth than the Language Of International Agreements? (that would be Frogistani, as we learned along ago). Main requirement IMO is stability of the value. Which is why the slide of the rupee is not good news.

A_Gupta
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Oct 2018 00:32

The American deep state, such as it is, is owned by the Saudis.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... 012ba.html

When I arrived in SA many years ago to be the military attaché in the US Embassy, I discovered that my five immediate predecessors were all retired from the US Army and working in SA for "big bucks." How could it be I thought that the chief US military intelligence officers in the embassy who had been Counselors of Embassy could be doing that? Simple, they had all been bought and paid for.

I did not follow that path. Throughout my tour of duty there I relentlessly told the story in my office's reporting of the military ineptitude of the Saudis and the corrupt practices common in the awarding of all foreign military sales contracts to The Kingdom. The goal of these hard money purchases from the US, the British, the French, etc. was always the same. It was the enrichment through "commissions" of all Saudi and foreign agents in the transactions. In the case of the foreigners the "pay off"was often made after retirement from government service.

I made this clear in my office's reporting, and the DIA of that time stood bravely behind me even as they were threatened by the "friends" of Saudi Arabia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. I, personally, was threatened with career destruction by several seniors including the USAF major general who headed the US Military Training Mission (USMTM) established in country if I did not desist from exposing the situation. I did not desist.

It is nevertheless true that many, many retired senior military officers and diplomats have sold themselves either directly to Saudi enterprises in that country or to foreign companies which represent the House of Saud. Their contribution to the enabling of the spread of Wahhabi fanaticism throughout the world is immeasurable.

It should be noted that this enabling persisted under both Democratic and Republican Administrations.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby disha » 18 Oct 2018 02:11

^^Yak herder has some real good points on reserve currency and yak herding. Maybe not so much on later.

Regarding China instituting its own petroyuan market., will not this be a shrinking market if the petro economy shrinks? Put it this way, as the world moves away from Oil, the market to deal in oil will actually shrink. By 2050, the oil market will be practically gone. So why put store on a currency tied to a shrinking market?

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chanakyaa » 18 Oct 2018 05:37

Ok, this iz YooS dhaaga...but lot of discussion on Petroyuan. So, I thought I should highlight some data/insights from markets. Sad thing about mainstream media is that it rarely goes past exaggerations and hyperboles, with little substance.

Petroyuan – the shape of things to come

China's crude oil futures market liquidity hits record high in early June


UlanBatori
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Oct 2018 07:31

"#Me2" begins to denote Donkey-Bibis doing soosai? Another donkey Senator shoots herself in the ass.

The blunder couldn't come at a worse time for the vulnerable Democratic senator, who is running for re-election in a state that President Donald Trump won by 36 percentage points in 2016. It's less than three weeks before Election Day and Heitkamp is not talking about trade, health care or taxes, but instead is blanketing North Dakota media with emotional interviews taking responsibility and looking to redirect questions about how this will impact her political future. Right now, that future looks bleak: Recent polls, including those before this controversy, have found Cramer with a sizable lead over Heitkamp.


Self-Goal # xxxx

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 18 Oct 2018 10:19

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... -war-china
Beijing must win the hearts of US businesspeople amid trade war, China policy adviser says
‘Trump would love to see [China] make trouble for US firms,’ economist Fan Gang, an ex-member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, said at Tsinghua University
Frank Tang, 18 October, 2018
Beijing must not launch retaliatory attacks against American firms or US business operations in China, despite US President Donald Trump’s threat to slap further punitive tariffs on Chinese goods and restrict Chinese investment in the US, a Chinese economist and government adviser has warned.
“Trump would love to see [China] make trouble for US firms,” Fan Gang, a former member of the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, said in a speech at Tsinghua University in Beijing on Wednesday.
“The business community is now the only voice [in the US] that may speak for China,” Fan said. “If we target them, then we may really lose the trade war.” Fan, a leader in an economists club founded by Vice-Premier Liu He, said that rather than focus on punitive responses to the Trump administration’s trade action, “we should further open up our market and create a fair business environment. In the long run, it’s good for China.”
Known as a liberal economist, Fan’s tone was soft in comparison with the trade war rhetoric that has come out of China’s official media since Trump began imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese goods six months ago.
But Fan’s suggestion that China focus on rolling out the red carpet for US companies and executives seemed in line with the Chinese government’s recent responses to Washington’s escalatory trade actions. In addition to vowing to slash tariffs on US imports after Trump’s imposed punitive duties on Chinese products, Beijing has pledged to further open up its domestic market and protect the interests of foreign businesses in China, including US firms. The government has gone the extra mile to woo foreign investment from America, granting electric car maker Tesla permission to set up an exclusively owned factory in Shanghai and giving energy giant ExxonMobil a preliminary green light to build a US$10 billion complex in Guangdong.
“The anti-China sentiment is growing in the US community, but in the past they were our alliance in the US political world,” Fan said.
The economist said China has to do some self-scrutiny and admit it has not done enough to open up its domestic market or to nurture foreign business investment.
“The American and European chambers of commerce complained about China’s business environment one year after another,” and were ignored, Fan said. “Now the US, EU and Japan are uniting their fronts, and they are not happy about China.”
China, he said, now must do many things “that should have been done in the past” to bring positive changes to its economic system and placate irritated foreign investors.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Rudradev » 18 Oct 2018 10:25

Gandhigili

g.sarkar
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 18 Oct 2018 10:46

Slightly older:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/03/us ... -renminbi/
Is the Trade War About to Become a Currency War?
Some experts figure Beijing might risk further driving down the renminbi against the dollar.
BY KEITH JOHNSON | OCTOBER 3, 2018
Long before he became U.S. president, Donald Trump railed against what he called China’s manipulation of its currency for economic advantage, even when that wasn’t quite true. Now, thanks to Trump’s escalating trade war, China is increasingly tempted to let its currency further slide in value—precisely what the president and the rest of his administration have warned Beijing not to do.
China so far has responded to the Trump administration’s trade war, especially tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, with tariffs of its own on U.S. goods, especially agricultural products. But China is running out of tit for tat responses, as it imports much less from the United States than it exports, leaving Beijing looking at other ways to get back at Washington such as throwing up fresh barriers to U.S. businesses and undermining U.S. foreign-policy goals. But there are still powerful—if risky—economic arrows left in China’s quiver. Over the spring and summer, Beijing found one way to take much of the sting out of U.S. tariffs, by letting its currency slide by about 9 percent against the dollar to the lowest level in several years, making its own exports that much cheaper and largely offsetting the impact of U.S. duties.
For the value of the Chinese renminbi—also known as the yuan—to fall that far, that fast, was a conscious decision, because Beijing still largely controls the value of its currency and could have intervened to stop the slide. And some China trade experts are betting that China’s rulers are now dug in enough against Trump that they could soon let the currency slide again.
“It was a signal to Washington that we don’t like what you are doing, and if you keep slapping on tariffs, our currency is going to weaken significantly, and you’re going to have a currency war on top of a trade war,” Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, the global association for the financial industry, said of this summer’s dive.
In some ways, the earlier move to weaken the renminbi was an easy decision, since the currency had steadily gained in value the prior year, giving it some room to fall without causing serious damage.
But China’s currency is now being pushed downward due to a host of factors. As the United States raises interest rates, it makes Chinese rates relatively less appealing, pushing down the renminbi. Chinese central bankers are also trying to inject more cash into the banking system, essentially pursuing the kind of “looser” monetary policy meant to shore up growth that also tends to push down currencies.
Now, with Trump’s tariffs set to escalate even further, there are fears that China could just let the renminbi fall as it did this summer, essentially unleashing a currency devaluation that would further ramp up bilateral tensions. In late September, the United States levied 10 percent tariffs on a whopping $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and the tariff is scheduled to rise to 25 percent in January. Trump has also threatened additional tariffs on $267 billion worth of Chinese products, adding up to essentially everything the country ships to the United States. Those escalating U.S. actions, and especially the likelihood that tariffs will jump to 25 percent next year, are giving trade hawks in China a fresh hearing, Brooks said.
“The expectation is that as tariffs go up to 25 percent, the hawks will be more vocal,” he said. Moreover, despite Trump’s confident assessment at the United Nations General Assembly meetings last week that “we are winning on every level,” Beijing shows no signs of backing down. “China will not be blackmailed or yield to pressure,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the same gathering in New York.
But further devaluation would be a risky play for China, which stepped in to stabilize the renminbi in late summer right above a critical psychological threshold of about 7 to the U.S. dollar. If Beijing decides to let the currency slide further in value, it’s not clear when or where it would stop, which could spook Chinese savers and domestic stock markets and undermine the Chinese leadership’s sense of control. “The challenge for China is that any further move [downward] would be perceived as a shift in policy, and it’s not clear where the limits might be,” said Brad Setser, a former economic official in the Obama administration now at the Council on Foreign Relations.
....
Gautam
Last edited by g.sarkar on 19 Oct 2018 02:32, edited 1 time in total.

g.sarkar
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby g.sarkar » 18 Oct 2018 10:47

duplicate deleted.

A_Gupta
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Oct 2018 17:11

December 5, 2016
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... lUwXKmr15s
Saudi Arabia bans journalist for criticising Donald Trump

One should note that Jamal Khashoggi's first offence was to criticize Trump.
Mr Khashoggi's weekly column in the Al Hayat newspaper did not appear this week, despite being published every Saturday for nearly five years.


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