Understanding the US - Again

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby syam » 18 Oct 2018 17:38

Old article about Republicans,
How has the Republican Party viewed Globalization over time?
Globalization is an issue of palpable political importance. It has swayed economic policy, foreign policy and social policy within most countries. It is also an issue that does not fit neatly onto the political spectrum. People on both the right and left support and oppose globalization. Why is this? What affect has this had on the political right?

The “why” is a very simple answer. Most people don’t consider foreign policy (which is the main policy area directly affected by globalization when voting) as much as other areas of political policy. As James Carville said, “it’s the economy stupid”. Voters are much more concerned about economic issues that affect them now (such as taxes and social programs) than they are about super national trading organizations and foreign conflicts. This means that voters don’t organize their beliefs based off of foreign policy and their take on globalization. As a result, political parties are not organized off of foreign policy and thus opinions about globalization. This is exacerbated in the United States where there are only two political parties since it means that both parties will reach out to voters who support and oppose globalization.

So, if there is no definitive foreign policy of the right, then what are the various factions? The Republican Party (which has represented the “contemporary right”) has always had a “mixed bag” of opinions on globalization. The Old Right had isolationist tendencies that date back very far. Some in the Republican Party were very adamant on this issue. The “conservative wing” of the Republican Party represented this stance. Senator Robert A. Taft led the movement throughout the 1940’s and into the 1950’s. Taft was an isolationist who opposed entry into World War Two (except after Pearl Harbor), opposed NATO when it was created, and opposed the United Nations.

Taft was contrasted by the “moderate wing” of the Republican Party. The “moderate wing” included Governor Thomas Dewey and President Dwight Eisenhower. The “moderate wing” was primarily located in the eastern United States. To contrast this, the “conservative wing” was primarily located in the mid-west and southern United States. Dewey, Eisenhower, and their followers were more sympathetic to American intervention in World War Two, NATO, The Cold War and globalization. The 1952 Republican National Convention was really only about the foreign policy doctrines of Taft and Eisenhower. Both of them generally agreed on other issues (such as their gradual acceptance of the New Deal).

The division between the “conservative wing” and the “moderate wing” of the Republican Party would evolve over the following decades. The “conservative wing” morphed into the paleoconservatives. paleoconservatives are the modern successor of the Old Right. They are isolationist and protectionist. They are deficit hawks and favor intense fiscal discipline (some today even support the reintroduction of the gold standard). They are also staunchly anti-immigration. As a result of these stances, they oppose globalization. Many of them explicitly state this (such as Pat Buchanan).

The “moderate wing” eventually morphed into the neoconservatives. The neoconservatives are a conglomeration of the “moderate wing” of the Republican Party and Democrats who developed conservative beliefs in the 1960’s. Neoconservatives support American intervention in foreign conflicts (from Vietnam to Iraq). Neoconservatives support free trade agreements (NAFTA, TPP, TTIP, etc.). Neoconservatives are also softer on deficit spending and immigration than their paleoconservative counterparts. On the whole, neoconservatives support globalization for the increased trading opportunities and the ability to spread democracy and American values.

In the 1960’s, conservatives such as William F. Buckley Jr., attempted to define what conservatism was. Buckley created a definition that included Paleoconservatives, Neoconservatives, Christian Conservatives, Libertarian Republicans and Moderate Republicans. This definition later became known as the “Reagan Coalition”, as it put President Ronald Reagan into the White House in 1980. Reagan did not necessarily fit into any of these categories, but he was an interventionist and generally supported globalization. Reagan also identified with the interventionist movement of the Republican Party from the 1960’s onward.

Neoconservatism became more prominent in the Republican Party throughout the 1980’s and became the dominant ideology of the party with election of President George W. Bush in 2000. This has led to a Republican Party that has supported globalization from the 1980’s until now. This can be seen by the support of military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq that time period. It can also be seen by reliable Republican support for free trade agreements during that time period.

Recently, the Republican Party has taken a turn in a different direction. Donald Trump is more paleoconservative than any Republican nominee for President in decades. His staunch opposition to the Iraq War, willingness to work with Putin and Assad in Syria (a common paleoconservative position) and vehement opposition to free trade agreements (such as TPP and NAFTA) all associate him with the paleoconservative movement. This marks a serious change in rhetoric from a party that previously supported globalization (primarily under neoconservatives), but now has a nominee who opposes it.

This divide within the Republican Party between interventionists and isolationists is nothing new. All that seems to change is the faces of the people representing either side of the debate. If Trump wins the 2016 election, it could make paleoconservatism the ideology of the Republican Party for decades. Trump could also abandon certain positions with his ascension to higher office. George W. Bush campaigned in 2000 on a non-interventionist platform, yet the war in Iraq was the polar opposite of this. Ultimately, it is up to the voters of the right to decide what their opinion on globalization will be.

link

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby syam » 18 Oct 2018 18:57

I see two factions in US politics now.

One is the creators of global order. The educated, city dwelling people are in this camp. They hate anything Trump. And other faction is good ol' white folks. They are most of the trump supporters. Both groups are all over the internet. I never seen two white guys fighting with each other like this.

Trump has relatively safe voter base. He is growing in popularity day by day. If he sits on chair for two terms, the consequences going to be huge. He will mostly focus on his own folks. RIP global order.

This whole thing reminds me of big Indian joint family on the verge of breakup. All family works very hard to reach this stage, and suddenly one greedy brother gets new ideas. He will grab whatever valuables he gets his hands on and starts building his own family. Future depends on what happens to this guy. If they are able to remove him, they will be again one big happy family. If not, the whole family will go separate ways, probably never be same again.

Positive news for US citizens - America will be great again for average joe there. He will prosper.

Negative news - He will be no longer the big brother.

^^ My understanding of the US for now.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Singha » 18 Oct 2018 19:24

The deep state seems to be tired of mohd bin salman

They wanted the more predictable mohd bin nayef who is defacto under house arrest with his wife and kids under threat of mbs goon squad if he steps out of line

Only kushner ji likes mbs for unknown reasons

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 18 Oct 2018 20:40

MBS and friends have bailed out kushiebaby on his personal business deals. MBS brags to people that kushie is his paltu kutta
MBS forces Qatar into diplomatic doghouse and sanctions to make them do favourable business with kushie
you do the math...

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Singha » 18 Oct 2018 20:56

But a critical mass of deep state and their msm dawgs seem to be on mbs case now

Kushnerji may not be able to block all durvaris this time

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 18 Oct 2018 21:29

mbs was supposed to be the new shining hope for remodelling the arab world in the image of the west - ergo women driving, employment opportunity, etc., etc.

but, same old same old...

stamping out of political dissent, coercion of all other Saudi elites to toe the line (ritz carlton jail), political killings, etc., etc. the shine has gone off him, might be headed the assad route - but given they have 18% of global oil reserves, they will find a 'solution'

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby abhik » 18 Oct 2018 22:35

Lalmohan wrote:MBS and friends have bailed out kushiebaby on his personal business deals. MBS brags to people that kushie is his paltu kutta
MBS forces Qatar into diplomatic doghouse and sanctions to make them do favourable business with kushie
you do the math...

The tail may wag the dog sometimes, but shouldn't delude itself of who is really in control, MBS should learn that from Gaddafi at least - the likes of Hillary, Obama and Sarkozy will never EVER have to worry about being dragged through the streets and meet an grizzly end like a feral dog. MBS will need to sleep with one eye open, keep looking over his shoulder and keep himself in the good books of the western elite, else one fine day he will find himself with a bone saw being used on his appendages.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Singha » 18 Oct 2018 23:29

Image

facebook has setup a war room to cull fake news :D
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/18/tech ... index.html

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 19 Oct 2018 14:49

MBS also has to watch out for the other 5,999 princes of the haus of saud

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Oct 2018 08:20

Can Someone help this poor soul understand why this particular journalist is special? Daniel Perl was killed too? That too soon after 9\11

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 20 Oct 2018 12:06

Trump.is bargaining to waive S-400 sanctions for buying F-16s.

He can go take a hike.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Gyan » 20 Oct 2018 12:36

Any views on US Mid terms? Are Republicans going to loose both Senate and or Congress?

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Oct 2018 13:51

ramana wrote:Trump.is bargaining to waive S-400 sanctions for buying F-16s.

He can go take a hike.

Please sanction the tariff king. That's the only hope for Kaveri. On a different note I won't mind F18 coming.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chetak » 20 Oct 2018 14:40

ramana wrote:Trump.is bargaining to waive S-400 sanctions for buying F-16s.

He can go take a hike.


This is where we were being herded with the CAATSA lasoo. The ugly ameriki is seldom subtle.

The US deepstate is looking to thrust one of the teens, preferably the 16, willy nilly into one of our orifices. They will shift the low cost items' manufacturing to third world India and swallow 80-90% of the high value spares supply chain by keeping it in the US.

The engines will be supplied just like a black box and the mindless swap out techniques that the use of such black boxes usually entails.

The tatas are complicit in this. Lucky for us that rotten tata has lost both his pious sheen as well as his skating on thin ice mojo. Radia took care of that.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Pratyush » 20 Oct 2018 16:03

ramana wrote:Trump.is bargaining to waive S-400 sanctions for buying F-16s.

He can go take a hike.



I am in favour of hard american sanctions against India. Only then will there be fire under the Musharraf of our political masters and the r&d bodies will have the required support needed to develop domestic solutions.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Oct 2018 19:00

Thomas Friedman:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/opin ... alman.html
And I believe that the roots of 9/11 came from two terrible bargains. One was that bargain between the Saudi ruling family and the kingdom’s religious establishment, where each blessed the other. The other was America’s cynical bargain with the Saudis, which went like this: “Guys, just keep your oil pumps open, your prices low and don’t bother the Israelis too much, and you can do whatever you want out back — preach whatever hate you want in your mosques, print whatever conspiracy theories you want in your papers and treat your women however you want.”


So sweep everything else under the rug:
I believe 9/11 was the worst thing to happen to America in my lifetime.

We can debate what was the right response to the attacks — Afghanistan, Iraq, the global war on terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security, or metal detectors everywhere. But we cannot debate the costs.

We have spent thousands of lives and some $2 trillion trying to defuse the threat of Muslim extremists — from Al Qaeda to ISIS — dollars that could have gone to so many other needs in our society.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 20 Oct 2018 23:31

Trigger for 9/11 is Clinton demanding Pak hand over OBL while visiting them.
This operationalized the long standing plan but aimed at US.
IAF was the only air force flying CAP on that day.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby abhik » 21 Oct 2018 00:48

Pratyush wrote:
ramana wrote:Trump.is bargaining to waive S-400 sanctions for buying F-16s.

He can go take a hike.



I am in favour of hard american sanctions against India. Only then will there be fire under the Musharraf of our political masters and the r&d bodies will have the required support needed to develop domestic solutions.


It didn't work the last time (1998), the "fire" petered out with in few years and we ended up becoming much more dependent on the US. I don't see it working this time either.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2018 03:59

As long as elite class of indians including a lot of brf members are settled in or have deep ties to usa via employer, family etc what fire are you talking of?

How about trump bans or reduced indian from f1 and h1 and also makes it tough for naturalized citizens and gc holders both to visit india and for family to visit them there ?

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 21 Oct 2018 04:33

US has more to lose.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby saip » 21 Oct 2018 04:56

AFAIK Naturalized citizens are no different from Natural born citizens (can't become President or VP, but who cares?). Hey, our first lady is a naturalized citizen. For all I know she is an illegal alien. She never denied it but produced a letter from a shyster (probably dicated by POTUS) that everything is up and up. We NCs are safe.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Mort Walker » 21 Oct 2018 05:01

ramana wrote:US has more to lose.


I haven’t read any specific news for a CAATSA waiver quid pro quo for a F-16 or -18 purchase. There still are more acquisitions from the US planned. What I have read is that technical teams from the US are in India to determine how the S-400 will not be integrated into systems that are of US origin. These teams working with the Indian military are avoiding going down the dark path of sanctions. I predict the US will accommodate both India and Turkey to get techincal data and develop counter measures to the S-400.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Oct 2018 08:12

I don't understand the US takleef with S-400. I thought US should WELCOME S-400 in countries where US has access and weapon sales. Surely these countries are not going to use S-400 against US attack (why should US attack?) but US-supplied planes are going to be flying over areas defended by S-400 so at least IFF protocol will be seen by US entities. And, US has no plans to sell competing systems to S-400, hain? More than those already sold? So what is the issue other than "u bought SOMETHING from Rooskies!" which is sheer petulance.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 21 Oct 2018 08:14

Since US is withdrawing from INF treaty signalling a new nuclear arms race, India should resume testing.
If any one recalls I had proposed testing resumption in case existing arms treaties are voided in my Quo Vadis? Article in BRM
Unfortunately it's not linked directly due to web glitches.
Will dig up the link.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 21 Oct 2018 08:15

UB they want to sell a watered down THAAD eventually. Sort of Patriot and THAAD lite.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Mort Walker » 21 Oct 2018 14:39

UlanBatori wrote:I don't understand the US takleef with S-400. I thought US should WELCOME S-400 in countries where US has access and weapon sales. Surely these countries are not going to use S-400 against US attack (why should US attack?) but US-supplied planes are going to be flying over areas defended by S-400 so at least IFF protocol will be seen by US entities. And, US has no plans to sell competing systems to S-400, hain? More than those already sold? So what is the issue other than "u bought SOMETHING from Rooskies!" which is sheer petulance.


It isn’t the S-400 per se, but rather the dollar amount of nearly $5 billion. If India buys it, then others buy it too. Guaranteed revenue stream for Russia.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Kashi » 21 Oct 2018 15:49

Mort Walker wrote:It isn’t the S-400 per se, but rather the dollar amount of nearly $5 billion. If India buys it, then others buy it too. Guaranteed revenue stream for Russia.


Turkey and China already bought S-400 before India.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Oct 2018 16:59

C-17 deal was $10B, wasn't it? That cut the Russians out of the transport deal where they have been India's mainstay since BD liberation. US was busy giving C-130s to terroristan, along with the odd crate of mangos.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby vijayk » 21 Oct 2018 18:12

Gyan wrote:Any views on US Mid terms? Are Republicans going to loose both Senate and or Congress?

House for sure is going to be D
Senate might be 53/54-47/46 in favor of R

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby hanumadu » 21 Oct 2018 20:38

More than 70% of the senate seats going to poll are held by democrats. Anti incumbency will make sure they will lose more seats.
Trump is losing big among women Republican voters.

Trump won because independents and a fair number of democrats voted for him. I am not sure all of them are willing to stick with him in 2020.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby prasannasimha » 21 Oct 2018 20:45

I do not know but I think Trump will still win a second term !!
The more polarized people are the more the Republicans will consolidate and will vote for Trump

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Gyan » 21 Oct 2018 22:47

If Congress goes D then Deep State & China will hit back through it & make Trump life hell.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Mort Walker » 22 Oct 2018 04:21

Kashi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:It isn’t the S-400 per se, but rather the dollar amount of nearly $5 billion. If India buys it, then others buy it too. Guaranteed revenue stream for Russia.


Turkey and China already bought S-400 before India.


Turkey and China are facing some CAATSA sanctions. They know India will be competent with it and can provide support to SE Asian countries who may be interested as well.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 22 Oct 2018 08:11

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... sm/570790/
The Republican Party is losing its ability to prevail in democratic competition. One solution to that dilemma, the Trump solution, is to weaken democracy so that a minority can dominate a disunited majority. The 2018 midterm elections will offer a referendum on whether that method can work. If Republicans avoid too-severe losses, the party will likely continue on its present antidemocratic path. But if the losses are significant, the party might be forced to find its way to a more inclusive politics, one that is less plutocratic, less theocratic, less racially chauvinist. Such an evolution will not be easy, but it can be achieved, if moderate Republicans are willing to fight for it.


The word liberal was one of the many casualties of the Vietnam era.

A generation before, Americans competed to own the term. Anti–New Deal Republicans like Senator Robert Taft claimed that they, not their opponents, were the “true liberals.” Former President Herbert Hoover preferred the term historical liberal.

The social turmoil of the 1960s and ’70s ripped away liberal’s positive associations and, in so doing, helped redeem conservatism from the discredit it incurred during the Great Depression.


For two political generations, Republicans have proclaimed the purity of their conservatism. But in a democratic society, conservatism and liberalism are not really opposites. They are different facets of the common democratic creed. What conservatives are conserving, after all, is a liberal order. That truth has been easy to overlook in the friction of partisan politics. It must be reaffirmed now, in this hour of liberal peril.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 22 Oct 2018 15:33

ArjunPandit wrote:Can Someone help this poor soul understand why this particular journalist is special? Daniel Perl was killed too? That too soon after 9\11


turkey made a big deal about it and the perpetrators were state actors - turkey has stripped away any plausible deniability from the Saudis in order to score their own points. it seems that the turks are also encouraging the educated but unemployed arabs (Palestinians, Lebanese and Syrians) to settle in turkey now - and they are grateful since their birathers in Saudi and UAE do not share that much love with them

in pearl's case the killers could be passed off as non-state actors and anyway he was getting too close to uncomfortable truths...

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ArjunPandit » 22 Oct 2018 15:52

^^^Thanks sir, I also noted that he probably was a CIA asset, who picked up "fistfight" to end up with multiple texas chainsaw killlers

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Lalmohan » 22 Oct 2018 17:11

yeah, he was a true desert mard who was not afraid of taking on 14 chainsaw clowns... maybe he was a tamil movie hero also

another thing I read suggests that the turks are using this issue to leverage the US over sanctions on the S400 purchase

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby A_Gupta » 22 Oct 2018 17:23

Image

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Rudradev » 23 Oct 2018 02:11

Singha wrote:But a critical mass of deep state and their msm dawgs seem to be on mbs case now

Kushnerji may not be able to block all durvaris this time



There is nothing... I mean literally NOTHING more solidly entrenched in the US Deep State worldview than the steadfast continuation of policy towards Saudi Arabia and Israel. KSA-USA special relationship even predates the creation of Israel by three years (FDR-Ibn Saud pact of 1945). This dates back to even before the Third Manthan (1945-50 era, post WW2).

All of this hollering about Mohammed Bone Saw-man is pure naatak. Even while Trump tries (ineptly) to deflect criticism of MBS in public, the Deep State would do a thousand times more to shield KSA from any actual repercussions behind the scenes.

Few data points from

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... bs/573454/

ONE:
Saudi spending on lobbying during these years remained high. But it rose dramatically in 2017—the kingdom spent $27 million on hiring lobbying firms and related activities last year compared with $10 million in 2016, according to the Center for International Policy (CIP), which tracks foreign influence spending in the U.S.

Saudi Arabia was the eighth-highest-spending country in the U.S. last year, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), which also tracks such data. It was surpassed in the Middle East only by the United Arab Emirates and Israel, according to CRP.


TWO:

But the Khashoggi affair has taken some of the sheen off of MbS and, by extension, Saudi Arabia. Three lobbying firms—the Harbour Group, BGR, and the Glover Park Group—all ended their contracts with the kingdom since Khashoggi’s disappearance. Such moves, however, are rare and likely to be temporary, Freeman said. Saudi Arabia has actually signed at least one lobbying contract amid the crisis.

“There’s sort of a weird dynamic here in that in the immediate aftermath you have this flight away from the country, which becomes something of a pariah. Lobbying and PR firms will distance themselves in the immediate aftermath,” Freeman said. “But then very quickly, and quietly in most cases, a lot of firms will sign new contracts with the country in question. We’re seeing a little bit of that.”


It's all a shell game, janaabs.

Just as US Deep State stands to funnel taxpayer-funded $$$ into its Military Industrial Complex via "military assistance" packages to bhooka-nanga places like El Salvador or Pakistan... it also gets back some of the $$$ it uses to buy oil from OPEC countries, like KSA and UAE, through the investment those countries make in Washington DC Lobbying firms. Note that the $27 million spent by KSA in 2017 is just the part of the iceberg that's visible above the surface.

So this is how it goes. MBS becomes the de-facto ruler of KSA, goes about locking up/thrashing/extorting other rich Saudis, but pays lots of money to DC lobbying firms to continue portraying him as a "reformer". US Deep State gains.

Then something like the Jamal Khashoggi affair surfaces. MBS' existing lobbying firms drop their contracts, probably citing some "force majeure"/"unforeseen circumstances" clauses that were built in for this purpose. Characters like Lindsey Graham (and, "reluctantly", even Trump) start publicly frowning in KSA's direction. At this time other DC Lobbying Firms see that the market price is up, and sign on MBS/KSA for a higher payout.

Eventually everybody forgets about the murder of JK (just as they forgot about most of the 9/11 hijackers being KSA-vasis, or the "special flights" that evacuated KSA honchos from American soil even while the rest of US airspace was on lockdown)... and it's back to business as usual. Lindsey finds something else to fulminate about, Trump goes back to blaming everything on immigrants, and the lobbying $$$ are flowing from Riyadh to US Deep State more plentifully than ever.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 23 Oct 2018 03:37

The US now is four economies:

1) California, Texas, and New York
2) Rest of US
3) Top 5%
4) Rest 95%

3) & 4) are in 1) & 2)


This explains the tax cuts and cash back proposals for 2) and 4) from both Republicans(10% for Middle Class) and Democrats (UBI).


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