Bharat Rakshak

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Opinion
Trump’s new National Security Strategy: Managing confusion and chaos
AVM ARJUN SUBRAMANIAM (RETD) 17 hours ago
U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Though it has come in for a lot of criticism, the new US NSS is the brainchild of two of the US’s top scholar-warriors, which gives confidence to many.

The latest US National Security Strategy (NSS) was made public earlier this week. It addresses many important questions about the US’s relationship with key foreign powers, and features many dimensions that this strategic commentator has analysed for ThePrint, based on his interaction with some of the brightest minds at institutions as diverse as The Harvard Kennedy School, Fletcher School of International Law and Diplomacy, and the Naval War College, among others.

On China, North Korea, and India
[ b]
The NSS shows the US’s concern and alarm over China’s rise, and the need for collaborative partnerships to manage and calibrate this complex relationship. [/b]This writer had addressed the issue in depth in a November article.

There were many dilemmas facing the US over the likely trajectory of its North Korea policy that this writer flagged last week, including a critique of Trump’s strategy and his alienation of European allies.

These dilemmas have now changed to confusion, with dissonant strategies emerging from different sources within government. Many critics have blasted the lack of consensus within the Trump administration over future courses of action against North Korea in the face of Chinese inaction. However, it can be argued that this may be good in the long run, because of the complex nature of Kim Jong-un’s strategy of ‘rational brinkmanship’, the kinds of which the US has faced only once before: during the Cuban Missile crisis.

If there is one area of complete consensus between the Democrats and the Republicans, it is on the need to further strengthen the alliance with Japan, and the Strategic Partnership with India.

In an informal conversation with this commentator, the former Secretary of Defence in the Obama administration, Ashton Carter, remarked that the three world leaders he admired most in the ‘free world’ were Prime Minister Abe, Prime Minister Modi, and Chancellor Angela Merkel.

That the importance of India is not merely skin-deep is reflected not only in the NSS, but in public pronouncements. A number of high-ranking officials from the present and past administrations, including General Joseph Dunford, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Ambassador Nicholas Burns, a former top-ranking diplomat in the State Department.

Brainchild of scholar-warriors

The New York Times is scathing in its criticism of Trump’s National Security Strategy and calls it a farce and highlights the dissonance between various senior functionaries in the State Department and Department of Defence, particularly over North Korea and Iran. However, the very fact that the chief orchestrators of the NSS are two of America’s most cerebral scholar-warriors gives much confidence to many.

In Defence Secretary James Mattis, National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and White House Chief of Staff, John Kelly, Trump has three generals who could well keep America on an even keel from a national security perspective. Their combined experience across conflict zones, coupled with their skills in statecraft that have emerged from years of scholarly pursuit, will serve the US well in these troubled times.

How they operationalise this strategy over the remaining period of this administration will be keenly watched by countries like China and Russia, which have already criticised the strategy for its overtly nationalistic ‘America First’ tone.

What NSS means for India

For India, this is a time to see whether the US is really serious about India’s concerns regarding the strengthening of the China-Pakistan collusivity, and whether it can finally draw on US concerns about global terrorism and not differentiate between ‘good and bad terrorists’ based on who attacks US citizens and soldiers and who does not.

This would also be a good time to discuss the tweaking of various technology regimes, so that a win-win situation can emerge for both US industry and the Make in India campaign, particularly in the defence sector.

The major takeaway for India is that it is widely seen in the US as a stable, responsible, and restrained power-in-the making, that needs to be cautiously nurtured as a partner based on shared values, ideals, and interests.

Air Vice Marshal Arjun Subramaniam (Retd) will continue his exclusive column for The Print in 2018 from Oxford University, where he will be a Visiting Fellow at The Changing Character of War Programme.


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Peregrine wrote:NSS is a statement of US interests that restricts India to specific region & role - Dr Harinder Sekhon

The US released its National Security Strategy outlining a range of policies and priorities designed to "make America great again". In a campaign-style speech, Trump announced that "America First" would now be a major priority in American foreign policy making. A major focus of the national security strategy is on US's economic relationships with other countries, drawing attention to its trade imbalances and arguing that America's economic security is fundamental to national security.

China and Russia have drawn flak for being "revisionist" powers that seek to "make economics less free and fair... and to repress their societies and expand their influence". In his speech, Trump referred to both as "rival" powers that "challenge American power, influence and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity".

India on the other hand has been recognised as "a leading global power" and a major defence partner with which the US seeks to "deepen" its strategic partnership and support its leadership role in Indian Ocean security and throughout the broader region, including South and Central Asia. India-US defence relationship is mentioned in the context of Indo-Pacific region where the US will "seek to increase quadrilateral cooperation with Japan, Australia and India" and set a positive "strategic direction for the US that will restore America's advantages in the world and build upon our country's great strengths". And herein lies the challenge for India.

There seem to be certain contradictions between what has been said in the document and some of the policies followed by the Trump administration. The Trump administration will therefore need to reassure that America can stand up to the values enunciated in the National Security Strategy. According to a recent Pew poll, during the past year, confidence in American leadership among the 37 countries polled, fell from 64% at the end of the Obama administration to just 22% today. 74% of these people said they have no confidence in the current US administration.

The strategy states that the US must do more to stand up to "revisionist" Russian and Chinese efforts to alter the post-war international order that was so painstakingly built by the US and its allies over the past seven decades. But in the last one year, rather than working to support those values, the Trump administration has dropped out of the global climate pact and the largest regional free-trade agreement, the TPP, disparaged and undermined America's alliances, creating uncertainties among its allies who have been asked to do more for their security. Interestingly, just a day before the release of the NSS, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss intelligence cooperation that apparently thwarted a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg. Similarly, while the text refers to Russia's meddling in the 2016 US election, Trump did not mention this in his speech. Likewise with China, the massive economic interdependence between the two countries, the signing of bilateral trade deals worth over $250 billion during Trump's recent visit to China and the need for Chinese political support in dealing with North Korea and other global challenges make it seem improbable that Trump would be able to put into practice all that has been said in the NSS.

The National Security Strategy is a statement of US interests and policies that seems to restrict India to a specific region and a specific role without addressing India's core interests. These include US role and policies in India's neighbourhood, divergent Intellectual Property Rights standards between India and the US in sharing dual-use technologies, foreign direct investment caps and toughening of H1-B visas for Indians. India, therefore, will have to carefully craft its policies and balance its priorities based on an objective assessment of its core interests and its own independent relations with both Russia and China. While India should seize the opportunities being offered by the US, it should not fall into the trap of the strategy's promotion of America's "sovereignty" over the concept of multi-polarity. The US has in the past garnered its strengths and worked with allies and partners to make America and the world stronger and safer. It remains to be seen if this document can inspire a serious introspection by the Trump administration and get rid of the contradictions in US policy.

The author is Senior Fellow, VIF

Cheers

UlanBatori wrote:If they had vetoed, US would also have justified cutting UN contributions (which is largely self-defeating - present mood of UN would make it likely that UN HQ moves to Oirope)

Trump praised Haley's actions before he left the White House for Christmas.
"Let them vote against us. We'll save a lot. We don't care," Trump said.
Trump campaigned in part on a pledge to reduce US commitments abroad, and Haley entered her post questioning the value of the US' funding of the UN.

A Pennsylvania woman says she went online to check her electric bill and was stunned at the amount — more than $284 billion. The Erie Times-News reports that Mary Horomanski said her eyes "just about popped out" of her head when she saw the amount... The silver lining was that she didn't have to pay the full amount until November 2018 — only a $28,156 minimum payment was due for December.

UlanBatori wrote:Then again this is all BS. How can North Korea's top missile developers have assets in the US all this time? How could they have been THAT comfortable?

Remember that the US used to ban interactions with the IITs under MTCR/SeetiBeTi?

17 million conductors, which carry the electrical charge, are needed, but just 347,000 were on the island. Workers had 7,639 insulators of 184,750 needed, the news outlet reported.

Haiti declared its independence from France on January 1, 1804. The American government refused to recognize the country until 1862. Thomas Jefferson, in 1799, referred to the leaders of Haiti’s violent overthrow of French colonial order as “cannibals of the terrible republic.” Haitian sovereignty, and the nationalist insurrections it inspired in the global South, was seen as an aberration from the Enlightenment’s racial ideal, a framing that has persisted for two centuries. The peculiar nineteenth-century physician Samuel Adolphus Cartwright, in his description of “drapetomania”—which he defined as “the disease causing Negroes to flee”—used the “insensibility” of Haitian free black society as an example of why America’s enslaved population had to be psychologically broken down. Haiti’s sin was black self-determination, and its people the sinners. A day after the 2010 earthquake, the evangelist Pat Robertson said on his TV show, “The 700 Club,” that the natural catastrophe was the result of Haiti’s “pact to the devil”: “You know, the Haitians revolted and got themselves free. But, ever since, they have been cursed by one thing after the other.”

Frederick Douglass ...... in 1893, gave his “Lecture on Haiti” in Chicago, the city founded by Jean Baptiste Point du Sable, himself believed to have been born on the portion of Hispaniola that would later declare itself Haiti. In his talk, Douglass spoke of the ideological hazard that the world’s first free black republic might pose to the U.S., saying, “But a deeper reason for coolness between the countries is this: Haiti is black, and we have not yet forgiven Haiti for being black or forgiven the Almighty for making her black.”

UlanBatori wrote:The World According 2 DTInteresting interview, surprising that it turned into a spat with WSJ after that. What happened?

A_Gupta wrote:Both sides have produced audio recordings of the interview to prove their point.

Dipanker wrote:There is a more interesting reason. WSJ also published a story of Trump lawyer paying $130,000 hush money in October 2016 to a _***** for a 2006 Lake Tahoe rendezvous:

Trump Lawyer Arranged $130,000 Payment for Adult-Film Star’s Silence

A_Gupta wrote:Ulan Batori
Frankly, it doesn't matter to me one way or the other. You asked "what happened", I told you. Common courtesy to fellow BRF member.

UlanBatori wrote:Federal govt workers are technically not paid during the shutdown.

UlanBatori wrote:

A_Gupta wrote:Ulan Batori
Frankly, it doesn't matter to me one way or the other. You asked "what happened", I told you. Common courtesy to fellow BRF member.

The link I posted was to the interview, so nothing new there. But I could not see what I was looking for.

Mr. Trump: I will let you know. But if I were them I would try. But the difference is I’m president; other people aren’t. And I know more about wedges than any human being that’s ever lived, but I’ll let you know. But I’ll tell you, you know, when you talk about driving a wedge, we also have a thing called trade. And South Korea—brilliantly makes—we have a trade deficit with South Korea of $31 billion a year. That’s a pretty strong bargaining chip to me.

With that being said, President Xi has been extremely generous with what he’s said, I like him a lot. I have a great relationship with him, as you know I have a great relationship with Prime Minister Abe of Japan and I probably have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un of North Korea.

I have relationships with people, I think you people are surprised.

WSJ: Just to be clear, you haven’t spoken to the North Korean leader, I mean when you say a relationship with Korea—

Mr. Trump: I don’t want to comment on it—I don’t want to comment, I’m not saying I have or I haven’t. But I just don’t—

WSJ: Some people would see your tweets, which are sometimes combative towards Kim Jong Un...

Mr. Trump: Sure, you see that a lot with me and then all of a sudden somebody’s my best friend. I could give you 20 examples. You give me 30. I’m a very flexible person.

he White House disputed that President Donald Trump told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday that “I probably have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un of North Korea,” saying that Mr. Trump had instead said “I’d probably have a very good relationship” with the North Korean leader.

GOP lawmakers have raised concerns over specific concepts referred to in the text exchanges, particularly recently unveiled messages that referred to a “secret society” following the presidential election and mention of an “insurance policy” in the spring of 2016.
“There are new concerns that anti-Trump FBI officials formed even a secret society at the FBI to subvert the president after his election,” Dobbs said.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced Monday that the Justice Department would investigate about five months’ worth of missing text messages between Strzok and Page.