Understanding the US - Again

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Sanju » 05 Jan 2020 22:58

Mort Walker wrote:
In Palm Beach, Fla., Mr. Trump lashed back, promising to strike 52 sites across Iran — representing the number of American hostages taken by Iran in 1979 — if Iran attacked Americans or American interests. On Saturday night, Mr. Trump warned on Twitter that some sites were “at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”


This will be the fastest way to lose an election yet. Trump's support will vanish overnight.


IIRC, every US President fighting a war has been re-elected for a second term.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Jan 2020 02:43

^^ Only if 'they' don't hit back. Beirut barracks event was finis for whoever that POTUS was. Right after that, the troops being brought back were routed through Goose Bay, Newfoundland, IIRC, and the C-5 crashed killing all of them too.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Jan 2020 02:57

POTUS DT calls for JoKerry to be prosecuted under Logan Act for Talking To Iran
The law in question -- the Logan Act -- is an arcane statute that has received renewed attention in recent years. Signed into law in 1799, it penalizes private individuals for negotiating or collaborating with foreign governments on issues involving the United States without the federal government's permission. There has only been one indictment under the law -- in 1803 against a Kentucky farmer who wrote an op-ed calling for western states to secede and ally themselves with France -- and the charges were ultimately dropped. No one has ever been prosecuted under the law.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Vikas » 06 Jan 2020 15:36

Sanju wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
This will be the fastest way to lose an election yet. Trump's support will vanish overnight.


IIRC, every US President fighting a war has been re-elected for a second term.


Bush Sr. ??

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chetak » 06 Jan 2020 16:25

Image

ramana
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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 07 Jan 2020 00:04

Vikas wrote:
Sanju wrote:
IIRC, every US President fighting a war has been re-elected for a second term.


Bush Sr. ??


He finished the war too soon.

Also every leader who won a war got defeated.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 07 Jan 2020 07:14


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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Vikas » 07 Jan 2020 09:55

ramana wrote:
Vikas wrote:
Bush Sr. ??


He finished the war too soon.
Also every leader who won a war got defeated.


Fun facts apart, Most of the US presidents do get re-elected unless economy tanks. In last 75 years, rare few have been declined second term, war or no war.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Mort Walker » 07 Jan 2020 10:33

^^^This time is different. Trump's support is tenuous. He has about 42-45% that will vote for him no matter what comes, there are 3-5% of the electorate, which generally supports him, but will make their final decision in late October when temperatures fall and sunset happens earlier in the day. The traitorous UNPA socialists/anarchists/Islamists and media is poised against him like no other president in history. Couple that with another war, and it's real trouble.

Any conflict with Iran will be difficult and will derail the economy. Many people are sitting quietly and observing who are very happy the annual return on conservative market investments. Even if 2020 is half as good as 2019, they'll happily take it and re-elect Trump.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 07 Jan 2020 22:38

Generally two terms have been the norm except for Carter and Bush Sr.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Vikas » 07 Jan 2020 23:31

Question for experts:

Do you think it was a mistake on part of Dubya and Ombaba not to have divided Iraq into multiple autonomous regions with their own well armed Militia if not separate countries.
USA would have had better grip over Oil and region and chance to play one against another.
Say a Iraq divided nicely between Sunni/Shia/Kurds and maybe Yazidis.

One of the excellent checkmate move that Brit Empire always made was to divide any region into multiple countries and leave a simmering wound for future use while checking out of the region.

Iran which too has multiple nationalities could be heading towards fate of India of 1947 where it gets divided into various factions and as always there is no shortage of people willing to bend over for power and H&D.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 08 Jan 2020 01:21

Vikas, I see you didn't follow the 15 years of West Asia threads at all or forgot what you read.

Off course they did do what you suggest.
Petraeus memoirs point to the creation of a Sunni milita to combat the Shia militias that backed the Iraqi regime.
Then there are the Kurds with their own militia since before Iraq war.

The Sunni militia became ISIS.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chetak » 08 Jan 2020 20:27

Subramanian Swamy Verified account @Swamy39 3h3 hours ago

It is not clear whether US had targeted the Hezbollah official instead of the Iranian No.2 and since they were sighted together and hence the Iranian was collateral damage. I heard this from a well informed person in US. If true then Iran US war like situation will cool.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chetak » 08 Jan 2020 20:31

twitter

I am minority in India ...
I want reservation.
We are only 2.53% of the population...

... my caste is *'Income Tax payer'*

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby vijayk » 08 Jan 2020 21:42

Iranian envoy wants India to mediate between US and Iran for de-escalation. Hope we help

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 00:27

From Deans in the other thread...
Deans wrote:Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east. If Oil prices cross $ 60/ barrel, shale oil from the US starts becoming viable.
At $ 70/barrel (where it is now), marginal shale wells go into production, giving a windfall for US producers. The extra supply of oil ensures that prices do not go beyond the $70-80/range, while also ensuring the Saudi and Russia (the 2 largest exporters) gain from any increases beyond pre Iran crisis levels. If shipments from the Persian gulf are affected, US gains the most (their shale supply taking up the slack), Saudi is mostly unaffected (they have alternate ports) while Iran and Shia Iraq (now US unfriendly) are the most affected. A shale oil boom for the next 6 months, should increase US GDP in oil producing states enough to ensure they vote Republican in Nov.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby mappunni » 09 Jan 2020 07:39

ramana wrote:From Deans in the other thread...
Deans wrote:Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east. If Oil prices cross $ 60/ barrel, shale oil from the US starts becoming viable.
At $ 70/barrel (where it is now), marginal shale wells go into production, giving a windfall for US producers. The extra supply of oil ensures that prices do not go beyond the $70-80/range, while also ensuring the Saudi and Russia (the 2 largest exporters) gain from any increases beyond pre Iran crisis levels. If shipments from the Persian gulf are affected, US gains the most (their shale supply taking up the slack), Saudi is mostly unaffected (they have alternate ports) while Iran and Shia Iraq (now US unfriendly) are the most affected. A shale oil boom for the next 6 months, should increase US GDP in oil producing states enough to ensure they vote Republican in Nov.


Being from Texas I can say that the Shale oil and gas producers will hit on the gas the minute the opportunity to increase their share in the market.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby anmol » 09 Jan 2020 11:24

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Vikas » 09 Jan 2020 11:42

vijayk wrote:Iranian envoy wants India to mediate between US and Iran for de-escalation. Hope we help


Don't think we have enough capital to help de-escalate.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ricky_v » 09 Jan 2020 12:21

Image
Always remember that such worthies have won the nobel prize in economics, and are decision makers.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Jan 2020 07:39

Calling Mullah hnairgolis: U asked 4 it!
Pleet Bhalala *articulates:
Preet Bharara to Georgia congressman: You've hit a shocking new low

Opinion by Preet Bharara

Updated 5:37 PM ET, Thu January 9, 2020
"The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN."

(CNN)Dear Representative Doug Collins,
You are not my congressman, and while I am ever thankful for that fact, after seeing your performance on Fox News on Wednesday night, I'm not sure you are fit to be anyone's congressman. Specifically, I saw you blithely assert on national television that Democrats "are in love with terrorists. We see that they mourn Soleimani more than they mourn our Gold Star families."
No American is "in love" with terrorists or "mourns" the death of that Iranian general on an airstrip in Baghdad. Many of us do, however, mourn the death of decency, honesty and reason here at home.
I realize that you are a politician and that hyperbolic, hyperpartisan claptrap is the unfortunate fashion of the day. But even allowing for the new normal of nastiness in political rhetoric, your casual slur of countless good Americans hits a new bottom. Americans can, in good faith, differ about the legality or efficacy of killing Soleimani. That doesn't make them unpatriotic or lovers of terrorists. It is hostility to differences of opinion that is un-American.
I understand that politics is a tough racket. I served as a Democratic staffer in the US Senate. I get that terrorism is a threat. I prosecuted terrorists as a United States attorney, working just yards from Ground Zero. I know of the particular evil posed by Qasem Soleimani. My office prosecuted plots orchestrated by him and the Quds Force, including the conspiracy to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States in 2011.
So, I have some idea of what is at stake here when it comes to terrorism. As you well know, Congressman, terrorists do not kill Republicans or Democrats. They kill Americans.
You know what else is true? The prosecutors, law enforcement agents and intelligence officers who keep us safe from terrorism do not do so as Republicans or Democrats. They do so as Americans. The victims of terrorism — and their families — do not grieve as members of a political party. They do so as Americans.
You are not a talk radio host or a carnival barker. You are a pastor, an attorney and a sitting member of Congress. Therefore, the evidence would suggest you should know better. To utter such garbage, which you know to be false and defamatory, goes against all the training and teaching you must have received. But you got your cheap shot across, and perhaps that's all that matters to you.
If we are going to come together, protect the homeland and heal the hearts of people who have suffered the scars of terrorism, we need our leaders to do better than lazy trash talk.
Learn that volume and wisdom are not the same thing.
You were elected to lead. Please give it a try.

Respectfully,

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chanakyaa » 10 Jan 2020 08:16

Deans wrote:Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east....

I've not seen the 2019 numbers, but 2018 numbers show (per EIA), meaningful imports from KSA and Iraq.

How much petroleum does the United States import and export?
The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports in 2018 were Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq...

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 10 Jan 2020 09:38

Preet doth protest too much!

If shoe fits wear it!

It's mostly Democrats who are crying for Solemaini non stop on TV channels

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Deans » 10 Jan 2020 09:54

chanakyaa wrote:
Deans wrote:Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east....

I've not seen the 2019 numbers, but 2018 numbers show (per EIA), meaningful imports from KSA and Iraq.
The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports in 2018 were Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq...
[/quote]

Chanakyaa Ji,
While you are correct re: 2018, the situation has been different in 2019, when the US has had a record oil output and slashed imports from the middle east. Net imports of oil are under 10% of consumption. Total US imports in Oct 19 from the middle east are just 10% of total crude oil imports. Canada alone is over 50% of US oil imports. Mexico and Saudi are the only other 2 significant exporters to the US - both under 1% of US consumption.
Last edited by Deans on 10 Jan 2020 14:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby chetak » 10 Jan 2020 12:03

chanakyaa wrote:
Deans wrote:Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east....

I've not seen the 2019 numbers, but 2018 numbers show (per EIA), meaningful imports from KSA and Iraq.

How much petroleum does the United States import and export?
The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports in 2018 were Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq...


The US has vast reserves of shale and those deposits, IIRC, start to become viable when crude prices touch around $60 per barrel.

It is shale oil that has effectively unshackled the US from its earlier dependence on gulf oil and shale has also given the amerikis a lot more strategic as well as tactical leeway in the gulf which trump is using to his benefit.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Deans » 10 Jan 2020 14:36

chetak wrote:The US has vast reserves of shale and those deposits, IIRC, start to become viable when crude prices touch around $60 per barrel.

It is shale oil that has effectively unshackled the US from its earlier dependence on gulf oil and shale has also given the amerikis a lot more strategic as well as tactical leeway in the gulf which trump is using to his benefit.


When oil moved from $ 60 to 70, the US added over 2 million barrels /day to its production of Oil - from previously abandoned shale wells. They have another 2 mil b/day of capacity that can be utilised if Oil increases to $ 80/ barrel. Total imports from the Middle east are approx 600,000 bpd.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby hnair » 10 Jan 2020 15:12

UlanBatori wrote:Calling Mullah hnairgolis: U asked 4 it!


:lol: These See-A-Nun-gigs seems to be like Mizoram governership for Kerala politicos.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ldev » 11 Jan 2020 01:58

Deans wrote:
chetak wrote:The US has vast reserves of shale and those deposits, IIRC, start to become viable when crude prices touch around $60 per barrel.

It is shale oil that has effectively unshackled the US from its earlier dependence on gulf oil and shale has also given the amerikis a lot more strategic as well as tactical leeway in the gulf which trump is using to his benefit.


When oil moved from $ 60 to 70, the US added over 2 million barrels /day to its production of Oil - from previously abandoned shale wells. They have another 2 mil b/day of capacity that can be utilised if Oil increases to $ 80/ barrel. Total imports from the Middle east are approx 600,000 bpd.


Plus the US has quasi colonies in the Western Hemisphere with Venezuelan oil reserves at 300 billion barrels and Canadian oil reserves at 170 billion barrels. So under the Monroe Doctrine the US will preserve and protect the western hemisphere and it's oil reserves and let the rest of the world go to.......fight over Gulf oil.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby hanumadu » 11 Jan 2020 06:04

chanakyaa wrote:
Deans wrote:Oil has not been mentioned much in these threads.

The US no longer imports oil any from the middle east....

I've not seen the 2019 numbers, but 2018 numbers show (per EIA), meaningful imports from KSA and Iraq.

How much petroleum does the United States import and export?
The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports in 2018 were Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq...


US Is a net exporter of crude oil even if its only by a small amount.
https://www.ft.com/content/9cbba7b0-12dd-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a

The small net export figure is the difference between massive flows of oil in each direction: imports of crude oil and petroleum products averaged 8.668m b/d in September, while exports were 8.757m b/d. 


US could be the largest producer of crude oil now.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Deans » 11 Jan 2020 10:02

hanumadu wrote:US Is a net exporter of crude oil even if its only by a small amount.
https://www.ft.com/content/9cbba7b0-12dd-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a

The small net export figure is the difference between massive flows of oil in each direction: imports of crude oil and petroleum products averaged 8.668m b/d in September, while exports were 8.757m b/d. 


US could be the largest producer of crude oil now.


Small nitpick - Exports from the US include refined oil (the way imported crude refined at Reliance Jamnagar is exported and listed as India's
oil exports). Excluding this, the US is still a net importer.
The US became the largest producer of crude in 2018. In 2019, their increased output compensated for voluntary production cuts by Saudi and Russia and forced production cuts (sanctions) on Iran and Venezuela.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Jan 2020 12:39

With the Ukranian Airline incident the Iranians have behaved like Pakis, this could have easily happenned on 27 Feb 19. On India side Routes flying to and from Amritsar, Srinagar and Jammu and on Pakistani side Planes flying to and from Lahore, Sialkot, Islamabad.

All these civilian airliners could have been easily hit by BVR missiles had IAF also started firing BVR's . Now this tragedy makes sense why the IAF ROE was in place and IAF was extra careful in using BVR's that day. It was just range of R-77 but I think IAF did not want to take down any of the unwarned civilian aircraft on either side.

The morally Bankrupt PAF could not care less.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby panduranghari » 12 Jan 2020 14:42

chetak wrote:
The US has vast reserves of shale and those deposits, IIRC, start to become viable when crude prices touch around $60 per barrel.

It is shale oil that has effectively unshackled the US from its earlier dependence on gulf oil and shale has also given the amerikis a lot more strategic as well as tactical leeway in the gulf which trump is using to his benefit.


This is incorrect deduction. Yes the USA are producing a lot of oil but it's light sweet. Not the heavy crude it has imported from west Asia forever and still do. The US refiners can't process light sweet oil from shale because they will need to build new refineries for this. They export it to India and China. Besides except Permian, the rest of shale reservoirs are tapped out. USA is a swing producer keeping OPEC on their toes. It's good news for energy hungry economies but to what end.


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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby ramana » 14 Jan 2020 01:40

In other news the Democrat Candidate Cory Booker dropped out of the Presidential nomination race.

Its now all monochrome.
Rainbow gone.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 02:17

^^Esp for the debates: wth is Klubuchar's support base?
Clone city.
So November is down to wacko but entertaining (if u like Fridin the 13th type movies) WASP vs. incompetent & boring WASP. 0.0000001% real American DNA possible if Pocahontasji is the lead donkey. Maybe the Fates have ordained a YY POTUS as in Bloomberg?
HiC-2 looms like ISIS looking at a power vacuum... :shock: Slogan:
LOCK'IM UP!

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Vikas » 14 Jan 2020 14:19

ramana wrote:In other news the Democrat Candidate Cory Booker dropped out of the Presidential nomination race.

Its now all monochrome.
Rainbow gone.


Are there any dork horses left in the race or would it be Biden v/s Sanders finally ?

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 18:36

This should really also go on the Understanding EU, Positive News US, Positive News EU, and the Out of India Threads. Maybe it should be Pinned at the top of BRF because it is at the root of why ppl like us spend out time (*arting) here rather than pompously (*arting) on Main Stream Media. With all due respect, it also shows why the Chinese are becoming a superpower.

Seriously considering betting that the Council of the RWA that censured Mohterma Milan Bibi included (a) Pakis and (b) desis. :oops:
BTW, isn't the Mohterma Dimon BB mentioned there, the BB-e-JPMorgan Sultan?

Proof where you need to use it, of the nature of the "Mainstream" publishing industry, as well as their "Awards". I am announcing withdrawal of the nomination of UBCN for the Poo-litzer Prize for Journalism and the Booker Prize for Conspiracy Theory.
It also shows why we have refrained from launching our Romance Series despite its meteoric rise (and equally sudden extinction) on PeeAref many saal pehle

It takes UBCN-class research to know this, but the Patron Saint (well...) of Romance "Literature" is Mohterma Rosemary Rogers. A Sri Lankan. I mean as in not gori. WE should be PROUD of her South Asian descent. Gave new meaning to the term "Gutter Mind", bless her soul. Certainly did not discriminate based on race, color, religion, gender, nor sexual preferance. Faaaar ahead of her time. :mrgreen:

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Shwetank » 14 Jan 2020 22:22


One reason for hostility among some sections of black and Jewish communities. Regardless of extremeness of Nation of Islam and other organizations which are outright anti-semitic, there do seem to be many sources pointing to extensive Jewish involvement in the trans-Atlantic slave trade from its beginning (and also, more applicable to those in Asia, in the various East India companies starting with their prominence in the major Dutch trade centers) and this has been largely ignored/suppressed. And their incredible organization brought to bear to legally harass and suppress various individuals (which the above prof. claims was for simply quoting historical documents and jewish writers themselves, I haven't checked if its true in this particular case) is greatly helped by their influence and control of media and publishing houses.

The last part is also something we should keep in mind, considering the overwhelming hostility of western media and art towards indics, those same content makers are largely controlled by jewish interests (the NYT is heavily Jewish influenced and staffed). The internet gave an avenue of independent publishing but that is also now being brought under control and at least the finding of information (google and youtube rankings are manipulated as noticed by many here) is directed and these organizations also have extensive jewish influence. In this case, maybe our thinking of enemy of an enemy might have been too naive..

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby khatvaanga » 14 Jan 2020 23:01

Vikas wrote:
ramana wrote:In other news the Democrat Candidate Cory Booker dropped out of the Presidential nomination race.

Its now all monochrome.
Rainbow gone.


Are there any dork horses left in the race or would it be Biden v/s Sanders finally ?


so far looks like that unless HRC jumps into the race again. I think it will be one of the old guys and DJT will beat them hands down, without sweating much.

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Re: Understanding the US - Again

Postby Rsatchi » 14 Jan 2020 23:08

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 254845.cms
This is interesting!!
A lame-duck govt and the Prez facing impeachment! :shock:
Major foreign visit: what for?? :roll:
Wonder what is in on the cards?
My new year(Yaniki :Ugadi Wish) is POTUS will come and say POK/Gilgit part of India and India has to right to take it back. :D
Given all the noises from the Indian Military, I hope/and wish this is what he is going to say!!
That would definitely set the 'Napak Ass' on superheating which has 'cooking on slow gas' for a while.


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