A lot of speculation right now on how a Biden presidency will pan out. Instead of making predictions, I am going to recount recent American political history which should help people understand the churn in Democratic party right now and how this will manifest itself, rather than just going by what Biden or Harris or even other Democrats have said or done in the recent past.
Our history lesson begins in February 2007. Obama is an audacious first term senator who has just pulled off a stunning victory in the Iowa caucuses. Hillary Clinton, the prohibitive favorite, has pulled back with a come from behind victory in the New Hampshire primary. All eyes or on South Carolina, where the next primary could set the tone for the huge Super Tuesday primaries that will succeed it. It is make or break time for the Obama candidacy, and Bill Clinton shows his true racist colors in launching a no holds barred attack on Obama on behalf of his wife. Bill Clinton, who at that time was called by Maya Angelou no less as the First Black President. Doing his articulate best to sink his wife's unexpected threat before he has a chance to gather steam.
That could have been the end of the Obama candidacy. But then, Ted Kennedy, the old liberal lion of the Democratic party steps in on behalf of Obama. Bill Clinton is told to STFU, Kennedy becomes the first heavyweight to support Obama, starts pulling the rest of the liberal wing with him, and plays kingmaker to Obama. You know how the rest of that story unfolded.
What followed is an object lesson in the power conferred to a successful kingmaker - this is how it has always been. What was Obama's signature initiative? Obamacare. What was Ted Kennedy's favorite cause? Universal Healthcare. Because Kennedy and the liberal wing of the Democratic party delivered the nomination for Obama, he adopted their causes in a political bargain. And when he got elected, the liberal wing displaced other power centers to become the predominant power center in the Democratic party.
When Obama got elected due to the tanking economy and global financial crisis, the first fight he chose in his incredible honeymoon period was universal healthcare. Kennedy was seriously ill even by the time Obama got elected. So Obama needed someone to do the political heavy lifting in the congress, especially the house and the skeptical Blue Dog (i.e. fiscal conservative) Democrats. Enter Nancy Pelosi,another hard core liberal, who put in the peak performance of her political life to deliver the votes for Obama. Even though both Pelosi and Harry Reed (Senate Majority Leader) had to pay the price for Obamacare in subsequent elections when Dems lost their majority, the power of the liberal wing comprising of coastal elites was consolidated - not least because several Dems who did not agree were forced out (e.g. Leiberman, VP candidate with Al Gore), retired (Ben Nelson of Florida), or were voted out.
The lesson here is how the ultra liberal coastal elite dominance of Dem party came about - they backed the winning candidate at the right time, and then used a fleeting window of opportunity to ram through their most cherished policy initiative. Note, I am not judging. I am recounting political history to explain why the Dems are like this right now.
Also note the consequences of this swing - when Hilary ran, the base of the old Dem party (working class, blacks, hispanics) abandoned her and the Dem party in droves. Hispanics still cannot forgive the great Dem/Obama betrayal on immigration, and have still not come back. And with the rise of Trump and the migration of the traditional Dem base to him (working class whites, hispanics, even AfAms) the liberals lost all grounding and you see the fringe elements like Alexandra Occasio Cortez, Rasheed Tlaib, Premila Jayapal and others come to the fore.
That is why there were so many liberal to ultra liberal candidates in the Dem party early this year, including Harris. By February, the Dem field looked like a circus. Biden was faltering and people were bracing for a Warren or Sanders candidacy. At that time, honestly, it looked like Trump would romp home to a second term. Until the South Carolina. Another king maker stepped up, as Ted Kennedy had done for Obama. The kingmaker this time was Biden's old friend Jim Clyburn, an old-style Af Am pol from South Carolina
[img=
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jim_ ... ngress.jpg][/img]
Clyburn's plan and message were simple - it was time for Af Am Dems to step up and reassert their power by standing behind a centrist candidate. Biden came roaring back in SC, and again, you know the rest of the story. The big difference to note: Obama was a black president brought to power by white politicians; Biden is a white president brought to power by black politicians.
There is more - Georgia. There is a new Af Am political star - Stacey Abrahams, who lost the contest for GA Governor by a whisker, but delivered GA for Biden in a humongous and historical shift. Also, there is Florida, where Biden got slammed in a traditional Dem stronghold (Miami-Dade county) because Trump was able to successfully make a case with the staunchly anti-communist Cuban Americans that voting for Biden amounted to bringing Pelosi's socialists to power.
So right now there is a huge churn in the Dem party. Black is back, with a vengeance. Libs are in the doghouse due to underperformance in House and Senate races where Republicans were supposed to be pulled down by a supposedly radioactive president.
It would be very tempting to start projecting out from this situation to what a Biden presidency will look like, but it is still too early to tell how things will fall out. Biden's choice of a cabinet will reveal a lot. If he chooses liberals like Warren or even Obama types like Susan Rice for some major positions, that will say something. If he chooses to or is pressured to decisively break ranks with the ultra liberal faction, that will indicate a very different trajectory that will diverge sharply from Obama's 2 terms. Also pay close attention to Pelosi's fate. I sense she may be in some trouble, but she is absolutely formidable as a politician and I will not underestimate her even when she is weakened. But a rebellion against her is not inconceivable, and a new Speaker of the house may emerge. That would be huge as well.
Final note - when Obama burnt all bridges with Republicans and Reps gained Senate+House majority, there was a Republican whisperer he needed to turn to. That person was Joe Biden. So if anyone can pull the severely polarized country together, it is him. For America's sake, I hope he succeeds.