Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

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Aarvee
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby Aarvee » 17 Nov 2018 13:18

ramana wrote:How did a bat in Kerala become a carrier for Bangladesh strain of Nipah Virus?
And if it travelled from bat to bat from Bangladesh, how come there were no outbreaks of Nipah virus all along the path?


Ramana sir, Bats can travel thousands of kilometers every year. Unless sampling and testing is done, we simply dont know about the prevalence of these viruses in wild populations. Zoonotic events are rare, It is like a perfect storm. A lot of factors need to work out perfectly for a spillover event to occur.

It is known that the virus exists in wild populations of BD and other SE countries. But we dont see regular outbreaks. We might simply be lucky. It is also known that Bats can actually clear out some viral infections.

But I agree with you in that more work needs to be done to understand the context of the original spillover. His travel history, his meetings with potential intermediate hosts etc. I am sure the powers to be are working that out.

In the absence of any solid information to suggest other wise, the most probable cause would be a zoonotic event.

ArjunPandit
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ArjunPandit » 17 Nov 2018 20:38

May be i'm too much into CT, but if I were to test the impact of such attack on enemy, I will do it that ways
1. Where I will not be suspected of doing it
2. There's adequate response so that it doesnt really become an epidemic
3. Perhaps there is slightly friendly regime, where I can contain things if things go haywire
KL checks all three ticks, because of distance and well supported medical system and the commi regime, which is heavily anti modi. I find it hard to believe that bats flew from BD to KL and didn't infect anyone in WB, Bihar, UP (I know it's not on the way, but still there is a lot of travel between the two states), AP, Telangana, TN, and Karnataka. Even if bats flew over seas (which i find hard to believe as they need something to hang upside down esp in night, unless they fly non stop) they didnt infect in TN, AP, Odisha

UlanBatori
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Nov 2018 00:22

Bat may have hitched a ride on a goods train. Or inside the skull of a commie neta returning from pilgrimage to Naxalbari.

ArjunPandit
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ArjunPandit » 18 Nov 2018 08:27

UlanBatori wrote:Bat may have hitched a ride on a goods train. Or inside the skull of a commie neta returning from pilgrimage to Naxalbari.

Perhaps a bat mobile is better explanation

ramana
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ramana » 13 Feb 2020 03:33

This thread needs to be revived.
Arjun Pandit conspiracy theory is most plausible scenario.
GOI is investigating private labs contracts with CDC for research on Nipah Virus.

Some deep shit has hit the fan.

Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 13 Feb 2020 03:46

ramana wrote:This thread needs to be revived.
Arjun Pandit conspiracy theory is most plausible scenario.
GOI is investigating private labs contracts with CDC for research on Nipah Virus.

Some deep shit has hit the fan.


Which conspiracy theory Ramanagaru?

Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 13 Feb 2020 03:46

ramana wrote:This thread needs to be revived.
Arjun Pandit conspiracy theory is most plausible scenario.
GOI is investigating private labs contracts with CDC for research on Nipah Virus.

Some deep shit has hit the fan.


Which conspiracy theory Ramanagaru?

ramana
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ramana » 14 Feb 2020 02:27

ArjunPandit wrote:May be i'm too much into CT, but if I were to test the impact of such attack on enemy, I will do it that ways
1. Where I will not be suspected of doing it
2. There's adequate response so that it doesnt really become an epidemic
3. Perhaps there is slightly friendly regime, where I can contain things if things go haywire
KL checks all three ticks, because of distance and well supported medical system and the commi regime, which is heavily anti modi. I find it hard to believe that bats flew from BD to KL and didn't infect anyone in WB, Bihar, UP (I know it's not on the way, but still there is a lot of travel between the two states), AP, Telangana, TN, and Karnataka. Even if bats flew over seas (which i find hard to believe as they need something to hang upside down esp in night, unless they fly non stop) they didnt infect in TN, AP, Odisha


This one.

habal
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby habal » 14 Feb 2020 09:55

more than bat, the role of civet cats need to be inspected. For instance this is an infected civet cat caught around same time as nipah virus was peaking.


habal
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby habal » 14 Feb 2020 10:00

their diet is same ad that of bats in that they mainly eat fruits, but also drink blood of small animals once every while.

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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ArjunPandit » 14 Feb 2020 16:15

i didnt even think this post until i heard about the cases in Kerela..I had been travelling and terribly tied up with work..and so many things happening in mind..so cant contribute much..for this and next month...

but i suspect we are seeing revival of biological warfare..much easier than nuke or kinetic warfare...i dont need to tell most..but still documenting for reference..
1. who started it is hard to know...accidents..of course
2. not very complicated tech required to use it (not develop but use).

let the enemy grapple with it..

BTW has anyone ever heard such things in russia? is the system so good or is it the cold weather? I am not a doc ..but my suspicion, again CT, is
1. because govt is not very keen to promote genetic mapping of citizens..putin or russians have publicly spoken about it in past..
2. russians will figure it out and unleash hell on who did it
3. chinese ppl with new money have been trying that quite a lot..
4. Not to forget chinese have been taking too many liberties with hacking western countries.

.i read few posts on BRF thread that the strain works only on chinese very well..not sure what is the truth in that..

A. it might be worth looking into hacks into chinese healthcare systems ...
B. BTW i am not accusing US of it..chinese have created so many enemies over years that someone might do them, including Brishit (anyone remember Skripal here), Russia and Israel. US are the most suspicious character so i would rule them out on desi detective style
C. From a human perspective american response (again with very little knowledge) has been very bad.

Whats in there for us
1. Prepare for it ..i still believe the surat plague was not a fluke..
2. Hope the govt shuns the moral high ground and prepares for a biological warfare..we gave up the chemical part..but think about a flu itself..if you can make soliders down with dengue..you can stop it in tracks....having suffered from dengue and some very deadly flu ..in 2016 and 2018 i cna tell from my own experience..of course i got fine to tell the tale....but it will be a different story when people would be PoWs..and see the love and affection given to them ;-)

Amber G.
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby Amber G. » 15 Feb 2020 01:53

habal wrote:more than bat, the role of civet cats need to be inspected. For instance this is an infected civet cat caught around same time as nipah virus was peaking.

Nipah virus (RNA virus in the genus Henipavirus) - like many (most eg SARS, MERS etc ) other Betacoronavirus originates from Bats...These "jump" from bats to others before infecting humans. For SARS it "jumped" from bats to .. civiet cats.. for MERS bats to camels etc.. For Nipah the main immediate animal were pigs (in Malaysia out break)..

(https://www.who.int/csr/disease/nipah/en/
WHO/CDC has extensive material on these for those who are interested.

(BTW, the name comes from Malaysian village "Sungai Nipah" - where it was discovered in 1990's .. the virus was isolated/studied in 1999 or so about 20 years before its appearance in Kerala - which was traced to pigs, In India, IIRC - somebody correct me if I am wrong the *main* culprit was consumption of raw date palm sap and eating of fruits partially consumed by bats and using water from wells inhabited by bats -- but certainly other animals may have been involved - easy enough to check from health data--
Added later: check out links like: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26981928-nipah-virus-transmission-from-bats-to-humans-associated-with-drinking-traditional-liquor-made-from-date-palm-sap-bangladesh-2011-2014/) ..



Also RT-PCR techniques are extremely precise to study genetic markup - leaving little doubt about scientific understanding -- not much room for CT theories unless one believes in them more than scientific methods.

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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby Amber G. » 15 Feb 2020 04:15

^^^ Additional items about how it spreads .. from previously mention site.. (For details see the original from WHO etc)..
What is Nipah Virus?
Nipah Virus (NiV) is an emerging infectious disease which first appeared in domestic pigs in Malaysia and Singapore in 1998 and 1999.

There is evidence of Nipah infection among several species of domestic animals including dogs, cats, goats, and horses. Sheep may also be affected. However, since the initial outbreak it has primarily affected humans in different parts of the world.

The disease causes respiratory and occasionally nervous signs in pigs. It has devastating zoonotic potential.

The organism which causes Nipah Virus encephalitis is an RNA virus of the family Paramyxoviridae, genus Henipavirus, and is closely related to Hendra virus. Hendra virus, formerly known as equine morbillivirus pneumonia or acute equine respiratory syndrome, is an acute, viral respiratory infection of horses and humans that has been reported in Australia.

Nipah Virus infection, also known as Nipah Virus encephalitis, was first isolated and described in 1999. The name, Nipah, is derived from the village in Malaysia where the person from whom the virus was first isolated succumbed to the disease.

Nipah Virus is a disease listed in the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Terrestrial Animal Health Code and must be reported to the OIE (OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code). Hendra virus is not yet an OIE listed reportable disease.



Transmission and spread
Fruit bats, also known as ‘flying foxes,’ of the genus Pteropus are natural reservoir hosts of the Nipah and Hendra viruses. The virus is present in bat urine and potentially, bat feces, saliva, and birthing fluids. Perhaps as a result of deforestation programmes, the Malaysian pig farms where the disease first originated had fruit trees which attracted the bats from the tropical forest, thus exposing domestic pigs to bat urine and feces. It is thought that these excretions and secretions initiated the infection in pigs which was then followed by a rapid spread through intensively reared pigs. Furthermore, transmission between farms may be due to fomites – or carrying the virus on clothing, equipment, boots, vehicles, etc.

ramana
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ramana » 15 Feb 2020 18:49

From a trusted source about Kerala outbreak

No need to fly on from anywhere. It is already there. Wherever Bats are there Nipah and other viruses may be also there. As these viruses are part of bats normal flora like our gut is full of bacteria. The chance of direct bat to human transmission is extremely rare except in certain conditions. Like in Bangladesh bats while drinking datepalm sap urinates into the vessel (bat urine and saliva contains virus). When people drink contaminated datepalm sap they get infected. Hence the family cluster of Nipah in Bangladesh. But the prevalence of datepalm taping in West Bengal is not very clear.
In Kerala it is definitely not there. Also no secondary animal was involved in Kerala. Whereas in Malaysia bats infected Pigs in farms and they infected workers. In Phillipines human got infection from handling horse meat (horse had contracted nipah mostly from bats while grassing under big trees with bat colonies. In Kerala there was no animals involved.

In Kerala only the index case got infected in the community. Including his family members, all other cases got infected in the hospital through human to human droplet infection.

Also remember, only around 10% (1in 10) Nipah cases only will become super spreaders (spread to a lot of people like our Kerala index case). Other cases mostly become very sick nd die within 2-4 days so may not efficiently transmit. That is why we say if good infection control practices are in the hospital Nipah wouldn’t spread and Nipah virus as of now cannot cause sustained human to human transmission.

So every case of Nipah will not result in an outbreak and we may not notice at all (clinically cannot make out only lab test can tell) so Nipah may be happening silently in other parts of India but our surveillance is not picking it up. So wherever Bat is there we can expect Nipah.

Also the virus identified in Kerala bats was not the same what we see in Bangladesh/ West Bengal. It is only 97-98% similar. So it has not came from Bangladesh but was there in Kerala.

Hope this is useful. We should expect Nipah anytime anywhere in India.

Hospital infection control has to drastically improve. Hospitals should not give infection. Need investment in public health if India. Lab supported surveillance system. Analysis of data in real time and evidence based public health response. Preparedness is must. We will see many more viruses emerging particularly with changing climate. We have no choice but be prepared. Otherwise India will face what China is undergoing today. Health security is directly linked to economic security.


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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ramana » 03 Mar 2020 21:02

There is something odd about Nipah virus showing up in Kerala that I can't lay my finger on.
As Singha says spider sense is fully alert but for what?
Will summarize what we know about Nipah Virus emergence in Kerala soon.

Cain Marko
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Mar 2020 01:40

ramana wrote:There is something odd about Nipah virus showing up in Kerala that I can't lay my finger on.
As Singha says spider sense is fully alert but for what?
Will summarize what we know about Nipah Virus emergence in Kerala soon.

Ramana sir, you're the best, please do so for NV and CV as well.

ranjan.rao
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ranjan.rao » 10 Mar 2020 19:32

ArjunPandit wrote:i didnt even think this post until i heard about the cases in Kerela..I had been travelling and terribly tied up with work..and so many things happening in mind..so cant contribute much..for this and next month...

but i suspect we are seeing revival of biological warfare..much easier than nuke or kinetic warfare...i dont need to tell most..but still documenting for reference..
1. who started it is hard to know...accidents..of course
2. not very complicated tech required to use it (not develop but use).

let the enemy grapple with it..

BTW has anyone ever heard such things in russia? is the system so good or is it the cold weather? I am not a doc ..but my suspicion, again CT, is
1. because govt is not very keen to promote genetic mapping of citizens..putin or russians have publicly spoken about it in past..
2. russians will figure it out and unleash hell on who did it
3. chinese ppl with new money have been trying that quite a lot..
4. Not to forget chinese have been taking too many liberties with hacking western countries.

.i read few posts on BRF thread that the strain works only on chinese very well..not sure what is the truth in that..

A. it might be worth looking into hacks into chinese healthcare systems ...
B. BTW i am not accusing US of it..chinese have created so many enemies over years that someone might do them, including Brishit (anyone remember Skripal here), Russia and Israel. US are the most suspicious character so i would rule them out on desi detective style
C. From a human perspective american response (again with very little knowledge) has been very bad.

Whats in there for us
1. Prepare for it ..i still believe the surat plague was not a fluke..
2. Hope the govt shuns the moral high ground and prepares for a biological warfare..we gave up the chemical part..but think about a flu itself..if you can make soliders down with dengue..you can stop it in tracks....having suffered from dengue and some very deadly flu ..in 2016 and 2018 i cna tell from my own experience..of course i got fine to tell the tale....but it will be a different story when people would be PoWs..and see the love and affection given to them ;-)

+italian & waynad connection

ramana
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby ramana » 10 Mar 2020 20:08

The genus of bats in Kerala and Wuhan?

Kerala bats that got Nipah virus is:

Fruit bats, also known as ‘flying foxes,’ of the genus Pteropus are natural reservoir hosts of the Nipah and Hendra viruses.


What is the genus of the Wuhan bats? How close are they to each other?

SwamyG
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Re: Nipah Virus Outbreak IN Kerala-2018

Postby SwamyG » 11 Mar 2020 12:07

ramana wrote:The genus of bats in Kerala and Wuhan?

Kerala bats that got Nipah virus is:

Fruit bats, also known as ‘flying foxes,’ of the genus Pteropus are natural reservoir hosts of the Nipah and Hendra viruses.


What is the genus of the Wuhan bats? How close are they to each other?


https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/11/3/210/htm


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