Pakistan Election Watch 2018

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Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ramana »

I am starting a new thread on above subject. I would like to track the parties, principal candidates and who is backing whom. And finally what will the impact be on India?
Thanks.
Please be data driven.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ramana »

Sad. No inputs. 8)
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Kashi »

Probably because election results in Pakistan don't really matter, especially when it comes to India policy that is firmly in the TSPA domain.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Aditya_V »

I think the Thread is worthless, Elections in Pakistan are a Tamasha, Power is only with the Army. So it is a waste of time. Whoever wins it does not matter.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Vikas »

It would matter because irrespective of whosoever gets the throne will end up getting in bad books of COAS and then the tussle begins. To think that Immy would play munna to Army for 5 years is too much of a stretch.
NS is not coming back nor is ML. Zardari /PPP are permanent enemies of the state so who is left ?
My guess is that this will be a Mahagathbandan sarkaar, Paki style.

BTW when is Bajwa retiring because that is theonly time, PM gets to exercise his power.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ArjunPandit »

i think it should be kept to see who says what, not that it matters anyways
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Lisa »

Wow a thread to discuss the monkey rather than the organ grinder!
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Vikas »

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1739918/1- ... on-papers/

Former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi had his nomination papers rejected and so were Ayesha Gulalai and Sardar Mehtab Abbasi.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ramana »

Who are Immy backers?
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by SSridhar »

I back PML-N unless the ISI mounts a large-scale operation of stuffing the ballot boxes.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by A_Gupta »

Doesn’t matter who wins in Pakistan; LeT will continue unmolested; Chinese tentacles will not be unwound; support for the Taliban will not diminish.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by souravB »

I hope Ganja comes back and gets arrested. Then the actual instability starts and with a little headwind may become a new arab spring.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by A_Gupta »

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7613&p=2283298#p2283307
X-post
A very subjective opinion from me.
Paul Krugman in a recent article on Brexit, wrote:
One of the best-established relationships in economics is the so-called gravity equation for trade between any two countries, which says that the amount of trade depends positively on the size of the two countries’ economies but negatively on the distance between them. You can see this very clearly in British exports. Here’s British exports to selected countries as a percentage of the importing country’s GDP, plotted against the distance to that country
Image
(from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opin ... avity.html )

If you consider Pakistan-India, one has to wonder. In all those fractions of a percentage growth that keep getting shaved off for one reason or another that keep India from achieving double-digit growth, how much does this contribute I wonder.

---
Is there any reason to believe that some election outcome in Pakistan might change that?
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by eklavya »

^^^^
Pakistan’s relationship with India is determined by their Army, not by their politicians. Pakistan will make peace with India only as their last resort. Once China abandons them, they will exercise the peace option, because India has always offered that to them.

The negative impact of trade barriers between India and Pakistan is borne far more by Pakistan than India. Assuming every rupee of trade adds value to the buyer and the seller (otherwise, why trade), the fact that India’s economy is 8-10x larger than Pakistan’s economy, also means that the impact on Pakistan of this “lost benefit of trade” will be 8-10x greater as a % of their economy.

Anyway, worth looking at some data:
* India’s total trade with Pakistan (GDP $305bn) in 2015-16 amounted to $1.7bn
* India’s total trade with Sri Lanka (GDP $87bn) in 2014-15 amounted to $4.6bn

Using Sri Lanka as the benchmark, Pakistan’s trade with India could have amounted to $16bn. Using 20% (I’m guessing) as the value add of trade, the lost value add is say $3.2bn or say $1.6bn each, a much bigger proportion of Pakistan’s economy than India’s.

I think this analysis misses a couple of big picture issues:

1) The potential gains to Pakistan of being integrated with India’s industrial supply chains and financial systems

2) The potential gains to both countries of spending less on defence

If China can somehow be convinced to stop acting like a-holes with India, and also stop sponsoring the Pakistan army, there are huge gains to be had for India. Our efforts need to be focussed on Beijing, not on Terroristan.

Some sources:
http://www.impactjournals.us/download.p ... NTRIES.pdf
https://tradingeconomics.com
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Philip »

Imran is going to be the latest puppet of the Paki military.There is enough material to discredit him and bring him down in the future when the Paki army is tired of him or if he grows to big for his boots.He too will have to flee abroad like his predecessors Nawaz, stupid to return, and Gen.Mushy the bandicoot.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ There is also the potential of more trade with Central Asia; Iran-India, Central Asia-India pipelines; integration of Pakistan into India's power grid (just the coal cost per kilowatt-hour for Sahiwal power plant in Pakistan is more than NTPC price for delivered electricity), a fully functioning SAARC, etc. But yes, Terroristan continues its slide into relative irrelevance, and Beijing is the focus.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by yensoy »

2 articles in US newspapers - one by Burkha Dutt in Washington Post, and another by Mihir Sharma in Bloomberg saying basically the same thing - Sharif is corrupt, but he is very popular, the only choice for a real democracy; he is being hounded by the military; the military is also heavily restricting the press as it covertly backs its candidate IK.

Interestingly overwhelming majority of responses are from Pakis saying that Indians know nothing about their country, NS is a terrible guy, with some calling our PM names. Probably written by equivalent of the 50 cent party in Pakistan, but scarier still is if this is the common perception.

And then we see all these teary eyed articles talking about poor Paki youth paying off smugglers to get a ticket to Europe, being busted and languishing in a refugee camp not knowing what is in store for them.

Reflexivity is the quality of critically looking at your own self and actions. This is a quality the Pakis have never had and will never have. The fact that their country is in the crapper, they don't have an economy to speak of and the youth bulge is trying to do whatever it takes to get out (crowding out genuine refugees fleeing war and genocide) entirely due to the actions of the deep state and its huge funding demands is lost on them. Can't even connect these basic dots. I don't a good future for them.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Bart S »

yensoy wrote: Interestingly overwhelming majority of responses are from Pakis saying that Indians know nothing about their country, NS is a terrible guy, with some calling our PM names. Probably written by equivalent of the 50 cent party in Pakistan, but scarier still is if this is the common perception.
These comments are from well educated overseas RAPE, the perception of the urdu press reading or illiterate local populace who work themselves into a frenzy at the command of Saudi funded mullahs is way worse.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Bart S »

eklavya wrote:^^^^

I think this analysis misses a couple of big picture issues:

1) The potential gains to Pakistan of being integrated with India’s industrial supply chains and financial systems

2) The potential gains to both countries of spending less on defence

If China can somehow be convinced to stop acting like a-holes with India, and also stop sponsoring the Pakistan army, there are huge gains to be had for India. Our efforts need to be focussed on Beijing, not on Terroristan.
A_Gupta wrote:^^^ There is also the potential of more trade with Central Asia; Iran-India, Central Asia-India pipelines; integration of Pakistan into India's power grid (just the coal cost per kilowatt-hour for Sahiwal power plant in Pakistan is more than NTPC price for delivered electricity), a fully functioning SAARC, etc. But yes, Terroristan continues its slide into relative irrelevance, and Beijing is the focus.

Either opening up trade with India or with trade relations as they are currently, we can manage them. The big big red flag for India that is a huge risk for us is the potential of opening up our markets to be flooded with goods of Chinese origin/enterprise (either via CPEC or local Chinese factories in Pakistan) that the Chinese would inevitably push at some point to try and make CPEC viable. This will be like paying hard earned money to our worst enemies to help them occupy and grab our land! This must be a red line that no GOI should allow to be breached.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ramana »

Eklavya, What do you think will be outcome of the Trump-Putin bi-lateral and the many bi-laterals between DT-Xi, Xi-Putin, and NaMo with Xi and Putin?

There is some reset going on and we are not understanding whats going on.

I think for India any understanding between the trio: DT, XI, and Putin as regards to West Asia and or Jihadi terrorism is crucial.
When TSP feels abandoned they could flail.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Philip »

I think the Trump- Putin meet was of zero value to the US establishment which is steeped in hatred of Russia like the Pakis of us. If it rains, it's Russia's fault.If there are raging fires- blame Russia.A great pity because if these two most powerful N- powers collaborate and cooperate, we'd have less conflicts worldwide.

However, both leaders would've exchanged vital notes on Syria, European security, the UKR, etc. in private.We'll know if they have if there are significant moves made on the chessboard.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by eklavya »

ramana wrote:Eklavya, What do you think will be outcome of the Trump-Putin bi-lateral and the many bi-laterals between DT-Xi, Xi-Putin, and NaMo with Xi and Putin?

There is some reset going on and we are not understanding whats going on.

I think for India any understanding between the trio: DT, XI, and Putin as regards to West Asia and or Jihadi terrorism is crucial.
When TSP feels abandoned they could flail.
Ramana sir,

The world is in a very dangerous place right now.

1) Trump has done just about everything to undermine US relations with its most important partners. Canada, Mexico, the EU, NATO, Japan, etc. India is a different story: more later. Trump is undermining the US’ hard-fought and hard-won status in the world. I am personally convinced that he is a grave threat to US national security. I am amazed that the US establishment has tolerated him this far. They need to get rid him of him very soon. Trump does not represent the US establishment. He is a horrible aberration. I think they should amend their constitution to stop anyone like him exercising power in the future.

2) Xi is riding high. He has no political opponent at home, Russia is in his pocket, and most of his neighbours are wetting themselves at the thought of dealing with a belligerent China in the context of an isolationist US. India is their only potential long term competitor. The “trade war” with the US is a farce that will pass.

3) Russia is sliding towards irrelevance. Putin knows it. He can’t do anything to stop it. Post Putin, in the best case, Russia will fall into the EU’s orbit, or in the worst case, into China’s. The former is better for India if China continues to act belligerent.

India is a peculiarity for all these actors. No fundamental threat to anyone. Vast market. Vast source of human capital. Fundamentally inward looking. If the Chinese stop sponsoring Pakistan, and accept the borders for what they are, India will dump its strategic relationship with the US.

India and China reconciled and just trading with each other has the potential to eclipse the dominance of the west. I’m not sure that Beijing has the foresight to understand this. In the meantime, we need to keep ourselves well armed and ready to beat the PLA, if required.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Vikas »

Eklavya Ji, What is this with inherent dislike for Trump. I think he is putting lots of International fat cats and deep state in place by kicking them in the right place where the fruit hangs.
The world and US needed a leader like him to shake up things.
Lastly I think the way we Indians tend to look at India v/s the way World looks at India is not congruent at any level. I doubt if anyone thinks of India as No fundamental threat to anyone. IMO Lack of opportunity does not mean lack of intent.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ramana »

Philip wrote:Imran is going to be the latest puppet of the Paki military.There is enough material to discredit him and bring him down in the future when the Paki army is tired of him or if he grows to big for his boots.He too will have to flee abroad like his predecessors Nawaz, stupid to return, and Gen.Mushy the bandicoot.

Looks like Reham Khan his ex-wife has more guts than this bimbo.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by anupmisra »

Voter turnout: Pakistan trails behind India, Nepal and Sri Lanka
Pakistan, with 86.9 million registered voters, which had recorded a 55.02 per cent voter turnout in the May 2013 elections, is currently trailing behind India, Nepal and Sri Lanka, where a lot more voters had come out of their homes to cast their ballots in polling exercises held between 2014 and 2017.
During the 2014 Indian general elections, the world's largest democracy had registered a voter turnout of 66.38 per cent, as 551 million voters came out of their homes to cast their ballots.
According to the Election Commission of India, the country had set a record for huge voter turnout. Over 814.5 million people were eligible to vote during the country's 2014 ballot exercise, with an increase of 100 million voters since the last general election in 2009, making this the largest-ever election in the world.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/343418 ... -sri-lanka
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by ramana »

What does it matter?

BBC was reporting last night that some Pak political party was accusing Pak military of siding with Imran Khan with usual denial.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by SBajwa »

If Noon league wins the elections then Army would not let Nawaz be PM and he will be jailed just like Sheikh Mujibur Rehman of the Bangladesh. History is repeating!
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by SBajwa »

Imran khan has promised to slash the military budget so Army is probably not behind him.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Gagan »

eklavya wrote:India is a peculiarity for all these actors. No fundamental threat to anyone. Vast market. Vast source of human capital. Fundamentally inward looking. If the Chinese stop sponsoring Pakistan, and accept the borders for what they are, India will dump its strategic relationship with the US.

India and China reconciled and just trading with each other has the potential to eclipse the dominance of the west. I’m not sure that Beijing has the foresight to understand this. In the meantime, we need to keep ourselves well armed and ready to beat the PLA, if required.
Well written !
But I have a Major Nitpick
The China part falls short.
Your contention that if China dumps Pakistan, India will bury the hatchet and eternal bliss will reign along the MacMohan line?
The Chinese stand accused of a lot of things, but not being hard-nosed or not being able to game complex geopolitics, is not one of them.
They will continue to use Pakistan as a Cats Paw.
Pakistan will continue to offer its service to be a Cats Paw with anyone, including the US, China, Russia, or even the Maldives (as they are doing now)

China probably does not trust that India will remain peaceful as it rises economically and militarily, and they are very likely right in their assessment
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Gagan »

Overseas Pakistanis are pretty Gung-Ho about Niazi saab’s impending crowning as shahenshah-e-wazir-e-azam
IIRC they were 400% sure that Niazi saab would win in the last elections too, but a major KLPD happened and Qaid-e-azam Sharif won

Establishment has made Qaid-e-azam Qaid-e-Adiala, just like they had made Qaid-e-azam-bongabandu a Qaid-e-Adiala. My sources tell me, that Jailor saab at Adiala is very superstitious and not keeping Sharif in the same cell as Bangabandhu...

Watch this space ...
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by eklavya »

Gagan wrote:
China probably does not trust that India will remain peaceful as it rises economically and militarily, and they are very likely right in their assessment
Sir, no one in New Delhi in their right mind will willingly pick a fight with China. We have been neighbours for eternity and have fought 1 war. All our “problems” historically have come from Central/West Asia and Europe, not from China. Thank the Himalayas and the Tibetan desert for that. Neither are going anywhere.

India has fundamentally acted with restraint and absence of aggression with significantly weaker neighbours. We will hardly change that equation with China of all nations.

By all means be very strong; let no one think of raising a hand; strength is the guarantor of peace.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by chetak »

yensoy wrote:2 articles in US newspapers - one by Burkha Dutt in Washington Post, and another by Mihir Sharma in Bloomberg saying basically the same thing - Sharif is corrupt, but he is very popular, the only choice for a real democracy; he is being hounded by the military; the military is also heavily restricting the press as it covertly backs its candidate IK.

Interestingly overwhelming majority of responses are from Pakis saying that Indians know nothing about their country, NS is a terrible guy, with some calling our PM names. Probably written by equivalent of the 50 cent party in Pakistan, but scarier still is if this is the common perception.

And then we see all these teary eyed articles talking about poor Paki youth paying off smugglers to get a ticket to Europe, being busted and languishing in a refugee camp not knowing what is in store for them.

Reflexivity is the quality of critically looking at your own self and actions. This is a quality the Pakis have never had and will never have. The fact that their country is in the crapper, they don't have an economy to speak of and the youth bulge is trying to do whatever it takes to get out (crowding out genuine refugees fleeing war and genocide) entirely due to the actions of the deep state and its huge funding demands is lost on them. Can't even connect these basic dots. I don't a good future for them.
Not too long ago burkha butts lips were firmly glued to nawaz sharif's buttocks and now she has gone against him?? A truly pragmatic move but greener paki pastures may not be so welcoming of her.

A true rat always knows when it's time to abandon ship.

I don't think that she will get much love from im the dim who prefers his journos a lot more nubile and photogenic. Also, he may be allergic to female journos now.

His last journo pick for the harem, Reham Khan, turned out to be a grenade with the pin out and she came very firmly attached to a suicide vest too.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by yensoy »

chetak wrote:
yensoy wrote:2 articles in US newspapers - one by Burkha Dutt in Washington Post, and another by Mihir Sharma in Bloomberg saying basically the same thing - Sharif is corrupt, but he is very popular, the only choice for a real democracy; he is being hounded by the military; the military is also heavily restricting the press as it covertly backs its candidate IK.

Interestingly overwhelming majority of responses are from Pakis saying that Indians know nothing about their country, NS is a terrible guy, with some calling our PM names. Probably written by equivalent of the 50 cent party in Pakistan, but scarier still is if this is the common perception...
Not too long ago burkha butts lips were firmly glued to nawaz sharif's buttocks and now she has gone against him?? A truly pragmatic move but greener paki pastures may not be so welcoming of her.

A true rat always knows when it's time to abandon ship.

I don't think that she will get much love from im the dim who prefers his journos a lot more nubile and photogenic. Also, he may be allergic to female journos now.

His last journo pick for the harem, Reham Khan, turned out to be a grenade with the pin out and she came very firmly attached to a suicide vest too.
No she's not gone against NS, these articles are against the deep state/"establishment".
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by chetak »

Gagan wrote:
eklavya wrote:India is a peculiarity for all these actors. No fundamental threat to anyone. Vast market. Vast source of human capital. Fundamentally inward looking. If the Chinese stop sponsoring Pakistan, and accept the borders for what they are, India will dump its strategic relationship with the US.

India and China reconciled and just trading with each other has the potential to eclipse the dominance of the west. I’m not sure that Beijing has the foresight to understand this. In the meantime, we need to keep ourselves well armed and ready to beat the PLA, if required.
Well written !
But I have a Major Nitpick
The China part falls short.
Your contention that if China dumps Pakistan, India will bury the hatchet and eternal bliss will reign along the MacMohan line?
The Chinese stand accused of a lot of things, but not being hard-nosed or not being able to game complex geopolitics, is not one of them.
They will continue to use Pakistan as a Cats Paw.
Pakistan will continue to offer its service to be a Cats Paw with anyone, including the US, China, Russia, or even the Maldives (as they are doing now)

China probably does not trust that India will remain peaceful as it rises economically and militarily, and they are very likely right in their assessment
Using the paki catspaw is the most economical as well as the strategically viable option for the hans. They have neatly outsourced the daily pin pricking and needling of the Indian state to the eager to please pakis who think that, cashmere is going to fall into their islamic laps very soon.

In many places the hans are in joint patrolling with the pakis, maybe to gain some experience of warfighting and to expose and harden their troops to the realities of the field.

Left to itself, India will remain peaceful and mostly inward looking as it has always been for centuries. We are and have always been philosophically hegemonistic and never physically so.

But, India has awakened to the new realities of geopolitics and will now fight to keep what has always been its own. This new India is what actually bothers the two vicious and parasitic abrahamic gangs as well as the yellow peril, all of whom had an easy run in India for centuries.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by chetak »

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:
Not too long ago burkha butts lips were firmly glued to nawaz sharif's buttocks and now she has gone against him?? A truly pragmatic move but greener paki pastures may not be so welcoming of her.

A true rat always knows when it's time to abandon ship.

I don't think that she will get much love from im the dim who prefers his journos a lot more nubile and photogenic. Also, he may be allergic to female journos now.

His last journo pick for the harem, Reham Khan, turned out to be a grenade with the pin out and she came very firmly attached to a suicide vest too.
No she's not gone against NS, these articles are against the deep state/"establishment".
If that is a fact, she has shut a lot of doors in pakiland and whoever comes to power there, her access has been jeopardized.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by anupmisra »

Ahmadis won't vote on 25th: spokesperson
He said though the elections are ostensibly being held under a joint electoral system, there is, however, a separate voter list for Ahmadis.
The forms issued for the registration of the votes include the religion box and the Oath-Declaration.
“Currently there is one voter list that includes all religious groups including Muslims, Hindus, Christians, Zoroastrians, and Sikhs, whereas in the case of Ahmadis, a separate voter list is being prepared bearing the titles Qadiani Men/Women. This ‘discriminatory’ treatment on the basis of religion is a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise the Ahmadis of Pakistan from the electoral process by to all intents and purposes denying them their right of vote. Such prejudicial behaviour is an open violation of Pakistani Ahmadis as citizens of the state and goes against the vision of the founding father of the country Muhammad Ali Jinnah and contravenes the constitution and the joint electoral system”
He said under these circumstances, Ahmadis consider taking part in the elections against their faith. And if there is anyone who may be contesting these elections as an Ahmadi, then he cannot and should not be seen as a representative of the Ahmadiyya community as a whole and nor will any Ahmadi accept him as such
:(( :(( :((

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/343248 ... okesperson
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Gagan »

These assorted journos are wedded to the Paki Deep State IMHO, but also to some media bribing wing run from the cold waters in the northern atlantic
They blow hot and cold based on the directions of the headwinds blowing across the atlantic
They are pretty useless as far as analysis and reading of the tea leaves, as they are pens for hire
I disregard their verbal diarrhoea with the contempt they so rightfully deserve
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Gagan »

Niazi saab is a number one Chokri-baaz, and one resistant, arrogant play-buoy to boot
The former is the reason why the likes of Randibaaz Rashid hang out with him, hoping to strike it lucky with the bevy of pretty ladies who pass through the revolving doors
The latter reason is why the establishment is much worried about him. Maybe they will reign in the Pirni to control his wild horses and deliver gentle persuations into his ears at bedtime
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by Kashi »

I don't think the establishment is too concerned about Im the Dim, too many skeletons in that closet. Makes him far easier to manage and precisely why he is chosen one.
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Re: Pakistan Election Watch 2018

Post by SBajwa »

Gagan wrote:Niazi saab is a number one Chokri-baaz, and one resistant, arrogant play-buoy to boot
The former is the reason why the likes of Randibaaz Rashid hang out with him, hoping to strike it lucky with the bevy of pretty ladies who pass through the revolving doors
The latter reason is why the establishment is much worried about him. Maybe they will reign in the Pirni to control his wild horses and deliver gentle persuations into his ears at bedtime
Imran Khan is impotent as per Reham Khan due to his daily 6 gm of Cocaine and many many other drugs. He has tried various drugs like V1agara but without any success.

He wakes up at 2:00 pm and sleeps very late into night. All the people around him are funding him., even his groceries and drugs daily are sent by his sycophant supporters. The daily sacrifice of a goat is also supplied by one of his supporters. He was created by Hamid Gul (who created Taliban)
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