Kerala Floods - Aftermath and Save Sabarimala

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SaiK
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 02:53


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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 03:08

Wait a minute. As usual, the TOIlet lies in its headline and buries the facts somewhere. The "discrimination" is between good Xtians and Dalits. Hain? The Dalits say that the Xtians would not eat food cooked by the Dalits. If the Dalits had only converted it would have been fine for them to take photos of the Xtian wimmens, which is the counter allegation? These are the times when I am glad I am not a privileged EyeAyEss Aphsar. What a life!

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 03:12

periodicity of such life, will soon make our -ways of livings- to seek quotas within disaster funds. soon, a bill will be passed on this - i'd not be surprised.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 03:15


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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Rakesh » 20 Aug 2018 03:19

I saw the video and since I speak Malayalam, this man is talking utter rubbish. He needs to be in jail!

Classic Kerala Commie behaviour.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 03:42

Ecologist Who Headed Panel On Western Ghats Says Kerala Flood A Man-Made Disaster, Government Ignored Advice
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/ecologist ... red-advice

http://www.moef.nic.in/downloads/public ... 052012.pdf
from page 41

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 20 Aug 2018 03:58

Folks Sewa international is a 501C Corp and companies in US might have matching grant. So please consider this channel to send funds for relief.
Check.with your employer.


Do note Sewa International USA is a registered charity and eligible for 501c3. If your employer matches the donations, please donate to Sewa through appropriate methods so that these donations are eligible for matching.

Sewa International has set an immediate goal of raising $100,000 for flood relief in Kerala. Nearly 325 people have lost their lives, and more than 200,000 are displaced, many of them lodged in relief camps under trying conditions.

Sewa International, along with its India partner, Deseeya Seva Bharati Keralam, is involved in rescue and relief operations. We desperately need money to help prepare food, distributing food packets and cooking kits, and open free kitchens and medical camps to help the flood affected. Equally urgent is the need for water purifiers, utensils for cooking, blankets, first aid kits, toiletries, flashlights, mosquito nets, backpacks, etc.

Open your hearts, and your wallets and purses, to help us help the people in distress.

Your generosity in making us reach our goal quickly will be truly appreciated!”


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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 20 Aug 2018 04:21

Tweet for. DIY life jacket from plastic bottles. Works in a pinch.

https://twitter.com/hussainnellikal/sta ... 11971?s=19

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 05:29

https://twitter.com/i/status/1030848421471518720

this is atrocious. I can't believe it

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 06:55

Well.. exactly what else could you have done with it? This was all over the place.... There was probably no way to truck it anywhere: roads not open. I don't know how they got the earthmover there. Opening the bridge was the priority: 1000 thirsty / sick children on the other side of the bridge maybe.
I would have done the same.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 20 Aug 2018 07:06

Flood relief for Kodagu.
Please contribute

https://twitter.com/mepratap/status/103 ... 35040?s=19

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Kashi » 20 Aug 2018 07:51

Railways doing their bit for Kerala

Indian Railways permits Govt./Private Organisations to transport Relief Material for FREE till 31st Aug.

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The railways has issued a set of guidelines allowing all government organisations as well as private bodies to transport relief material to flood-ravaged Kerala for free.

However, non-government organisations have to be vetted by respective Divisional Railway Managers of the Originating Stations across India in order to avail this provision, for reaching the destination in Kerala, said the guidelines issued on Saturday. “No freight is to be charged for transportation of relief material to Kerala. That is to all stations in Kerala as of now,” the railways said.

All consignments in passenger-carrying trains through parcel vans as well as intra-state coaching trains carrying relief material shall be covered under these guidelines so as to ensure faster transit, the Railway Board said in a letter to all zonal general managers. “All government organisations across the country can book relief material free of cost to Kerala. Other organisations, as deemed fit by Divisional Railway Managers (DRM) may also avail of this provision,” it said.


As floodwaters recede, Railways reinstate normal Train Services across Kerala (except few)

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As floodwaters receded across Kerala and rain became intermittent, on Sunday, rescue efforts began winding down. After 10 days of continuous torrential downpour and massive floods that has killed 370 people so far, the focus is now shifting to relief, rehabilitation, rescue and restoration activities across all the Railway areas. Due to early completion of restoration works in the Division, all Passenger/Express Train services except [few], will be resuming from (20th August 2018 and running based on the scheduled timings.


Indian Railways arrange Water Special Trains and IRCTC RailNeer for Kerala

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Railway’s provide helping hand to Kerala, run Drinking Water Special Trains from Pune

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 07:52

CM's flood damage assessment: 19000 crores.

IMO, that's not even close to the right order of magnitude.

Donations/other help
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a grant of Rs 500 crore, aside from the Rs 100 crore declared by Home Minister Rajnath Singh last week. Apart from the PM Relief fund and Vijayan personally donating Rs 1 lakh to the CMRDF, various ministers of state, officials, celebrities and people from various walks of life have contributed money to provide relief to the flood-ravaged state.

Here is a list of donations and aids that have been announced for Kerala so far:

1. Home Minister Rajnath Singh had announced Rs 100 crore as immediate relief in assurance to the state due to floods and rains. The Rs 500 crore grant announced by PM Modi earlier today is in addition to the Rs 100 crore.

2. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has announced Rs 10 crore aid to the flood-hit state and also said that one-month salaries of all AAP MLAs and MPs will be given to the state. Congress MPs and MLAs have also followed suit and have pledged to donate one month’s salary. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has also announced an aid of Rs 10 crore and similarly, Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik announced an aid of additional Rs 5 crore to the earlier sanctioned Rs 5 crore along with 245 fire personnel with boats.

3. Various other states’ chief ministers have announced monetary relief for flood-hit Kerala from their respective chief minister relief fund. Neighbouring Tamil Nadu (Rs 10 crore) and Andhra Pradesh (Rs 10 crore), Puducherry (Rs 1 crore), Jharkhand (Rs 5 crore), Maharashtra (Rs 20 crore), Gujarat (Rs 10 crore), Punjab (Rs 10 crore), Telangana (Rs 25 crore), Bihar (Rs 10 crore), Himachal Pradesh (Rs 5 crore), Uttarakhand (Rs 5 crore), Chattisgarh (Rs 3 crore) Madhya Pradesh (Rs 10 crore), Karnataka (Rs 10 crore), West Bengal (Rs 10 crore) and Manipur (Rs 2 crore) announced as part of donation.

4. While Congress demanded the disaster in Kerala to be termed as ‘national calamity’, former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said he would donate a month’s salary to the flood-ravaged state and appealed to his colleagues in the state to do the same. Tamil Nadu IAS officers have pledged a day’s salaries towards the flood relief in Kerala. The Islamic Centre of India urged Muslims to donate 10 per cent of Eid budget to Kerala flood victims.
5. Various businessmen and individuals have also been donating monetary funds to help the relief work in Kerala including NRI businessman M A Yusuf Ali who donated Rs 5 crore. The recent 21-year-old student from Kerala who was trolled for selling fishes, Hanan also donated Rs 1.5 lakh towards the Chief Minister Relief fund that she had received from people to fund her studies and take care of her family. Tamil Nadu political party DMK donated Rs 1 crore, as well. BJP MP Varun Gandhi has also donated Rs 2 lakh to the CMRDF and urged other politicians to also contribute to the fund. Attorney General K K Venugopal has donated Rs 1 crore while a Kerala pastor from Pathanamthitta district offered 25 cents of his land to bury those dead in the floods.

6. Celebrities Kamal Hassan, Surya contributed Rs 25 lakh each and actor Sidharth urged people to donate to the Kerala Chief Minister relief fund by participating in the #KeralaFloodRelief Challenge. Tamil Actor Dhanush contributed Rs 15 lakh, while Vishal and Sivakarthikeyan gave Rs 10 lakh each. Telugu actor Vijay donated Rs 5 lakh, another South actress Anupama Parameswaran donated Rs 1 lakh. Tamil actor Vijay Sethupathi donated Rs 25 lakh and actress Rohini donated Rs 2 lakh to the relief fund. Telugu actors Prabhas, Allu Arjun and Vijay Deverakonda have also donated to the flood rescue efforts. According to latest reports, South superstar Rajinikanth has announced that he will donate Rs 15 lakh whereas, director Shankar has assured Rs 10 lakh for the Kerala flood victims.

6. AMMA, the organisation which was under scrutiny recently in Kerala donated Rs 10 lakh whereas Malayalam actors Mammooty and Dulquer Salmaan contributed Rs 15 lakh and Rs 10 lakh respectively. Malayalam film industry superstar Mohanlal gave Rs 25 lakh to the CMDRF. Whereas, actor Jayasurya distributed essentials to the inmates in relief camps in Paravur.

7. A number of Bollywood actors have also urged their fans to contribute to the CM Relief Funds including Sonali Bendre who is battling high-grade cancer and is stationed in New York has asked people to come out and donate. Most Bollywood celebrities took to Twitter to reach out to their fans such as Abhishek Bachchan, Anushka Sharma and Bhumi Pednekar. John Abraham cancelled the success bash of his latest movie, ‘Satyameva Jayate’ and instead strongly voiced his concerns for Kerala’s flood victims. Bollywood superstars Amitabh Bachchan and Shah Rukh Khan were the latest to join the bandwagon of celebrities to donate and urge their fans to support Kerala.

8. Television giant, Star India donated Rs 2 crore whereas south regional television Sun TV network, made a donation of Rs 1 crore towards the relief fund. Asianet employees have pledged Rs 25 lakh according to a company statement. Star India has also partnered with an NGO called Goonj for supply of essentials.

9. State Bank of India (SBI) has donated Rs 2 crore for the Kerala flood victims apart from ground-level measures to help them. They have also waived off fees and charges on services like loans for flood relief, duplicate passbooks, ATM cards, chequebooks and EMI delays, besides making attempts to restore the working of branches and ATMs in the flood-affected regions of the state.

10. Notably, a temple in Keezhillam, in Ernakulam district has donated its treasury to the CMDRF. The Kaniyasseri Mahavishnu Temple has handed over donations it received in the donation box to the aid fund. TVS & Sons CEO Mr.Raghavan handed over Rs 1 crore to CM Pinarayi Vijayan today at Trivandrum along with two containers that are coming from Madurai with food and basic amenities.

11. Various donation camps have sprung up across the country in various cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Bengaluru. People are toiling through the day to collect and segregate funds for the flood-ravaged state which includes monetary relief as well as funds in form of supplies and stock. Indian Railways announced free transportation for relief material across to Kerala as well. The Department of Food & Public Distribution has provided 50,000 million tonnes (MT) of food grains for the victims so far.

12. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Saturday formed a committee to come together in order to provide relief to the people of Kerala. President His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum took to Twitter to make the announcement and urged “everyone to contribute generously towards this initiative.” The committee chaired by the Emirates Red Crescent (ERC) and will include representatives from the UAE’s humanitarian organisations. Qatar government allocated Rs 35 crore towards the relief fund of the Kerala chief minister for relief operations.

Mr.Yusuf Ali, MD of Lulu Group have donated Dhs.9.23 Million (i.e in Indian Rupees . 17 Crores) and not just 5 Crores. and also please add the following names and their donation details from UAE.

Major donors
■ Yousuf Ali, chairman and MD of LuLu Group, donated a total of Dh9.23 million.
■ Dr B.R. Shetty, chairman of NMC Healthcare, Unimoni & UAE Exchange, donated Dh6.06 million.
■ Sunny Varkey, GEMS Education founder and chairman has committed Dh5 million to the special committee formed by the UAE.
■ Dr K.P. Hussain, chairman, Fathima Healthcare Group, has announced Rs50 million (Dh2.65 million) for aid.
■ Dr Azad Moopen, founder chairman and MD of Aster DM Healthcare has announced Rs5 million (Dh265,000) for the chief minister’s fund.

Bholabhai 5 points
8 hours ago

From small town of Gujarat, we contributed into the kerala's CM relief fund. More important we send a team of 20 people with 3 trucks relief material including clothing, long lasting food parcels, tents & essential medicines. Its not generosity but its our duty towards our brothers and sisters. Instead of using abuse words I request and prey everybody here to give something even 100 Rs also useful.
Matha Amrithanandamayi Madom(MAM) donated 10 crores. Provided free medical camps, distributed food, opened 24 hour helpline.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Kashi » 20 Aug 2018 08:00

Everyone chipping in from all over country- Delhi, Nagaland, Chhattisgarh

https://twitter.com/RSSorg/status/1031172398043648001

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https://twitter.com/udayfoundation/stat ... 8200763392
No holiday for @DelhiPolice. We called them for SOS Kerala flood relief to be delivered to the airport urgently. With in no time they are here to help. A big thumbs up to Delhi police and big shoutout to @IPSMadhurVerma. #KeralaFloodRelief #DelhiWithKerala


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ANI @ANI
Kerala: Seva Bharati,a community service unit of RSS (pic 1&2) & CPM cadres (pic 3&4) are carrying out rescue&relief ops across the state which is reeling under floods. 357 people have lost their lives in the flood so far. Visuals from Trivandrum, Kumily & Palakkad. #KeralaFloods


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ANI@ANI
I spoke to Kerala CM today. We've decided that a train full of rice worth around Rs 7.5 crores will leave for Kerala tomorrow. 3 crores will be provided in cash. Doctors, soldiers & even public of our state is ready to go there to help: Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh. #KeralaFloods


ANI@ANI
People belonging to Sikh community in Kochi prepared food&provided it to relief camps. The coordinator said,"From last 3 days we are serving food to more than 1000 people. We're preparing food inside Gurdwara Sri Guru Singh Sabha in hygienic conditions." (19.8.2018) #KeralaFloods

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WeTheNagas@WeTheNagas
Government of Nagaland to contribute Rs. 1 crore to Kerala Disaster Relief Fund.
#Nagaland #Kerala #Disaster #Government

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 20 Aug 2018 08:58

Image

INS mysore brought some supplies from mumbai. but our lack of large RoRo and LPH ships for bulk logisitcs and sea-based C3I is glaring.

any plan to convert car nicobar into a submarine FARP + anderson guam has to be preceded by a strong supply chain.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 20 Aug 2018 09:01

UlanBatori wrote:Well.. exactly what else could you have done with it? This was all over the place.... There was probably no way to truck it anywhere: roads not open. I don't know how they got the earthmover there. Opening the bridge was the priority: 1000 thirsty / sick children on the other side of the bridge maybe.
I would have done the same.


ocean currents seem to have carried various waste as far south as colombo per report on that same page.

what it has revealed is the lack of waste segregation and recycling that is only being done in a few much-maligned places like BLR.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 09:02

batori ji, I'd not have done the same. I'd have arranged the dump to be close by but away from the water body.

what goes around, comes around

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 20 Aug 2018 09:05

british era contour maps are of no use - i mean blr used to have 100s of small lakes but land filling, roads etc have taken their toll.

contour maps can be generated by cartosats which pass over india daily(cheapest) and also by the phalcons if needed(costliest)

in between and high loiter time would be Ghawk type HALEs

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 09:14

cochin airport is clear now for ops
Image

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 09:27

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wow! how did they do it?

Image

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 09:35

Image
vs.
Image

which appears more hygienic?
#JustForLooksOnly

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 20 Aug 2018 09:57

OK.. Here is the facts on KSEB as on Aug 15th. Source National Power Portal

Total Installed Capacity: 2041.46 MW
Hydro Capacity: 1881.5 MW
Hydro Capacity under outage: 320MW (Idukki 130/780, Lower Periyar 120/180, Sabarigiri 100/300, Sengulam 24/48, Sholayar 18/54). Total 17% under outage. The national average is 15%
Idukki Capacity: 780MW
Idukki under outage: 130MW.
Idukki generation for the day: 15MU (Which means average generation was 625MW against capacity of 650MW, so five generators were working non stop)

So... please stop blaming KSEB. The data shows they are doing pretty OK.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 20 Aug 2018 10:08

Information on Power Cuts (Source Urja App of NPP):

Average duration of power cut : 0.46Hrs/Month. National Average is 8.32 Hrs/Month. Rank: 3rd in India.

So, if some place at 3-Shiv-Nation have 2 hours power cut, you have data from last millennia, or there is a local problem.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 20 Aug 2018 10:13

the rail neer is ok, treated water.
cannot have pallets of khan style bottled water trucked up like desert storm.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 20 Aug 2018 11:05

I got some more data point: At full capacity of 780MW, the Idukki power generator will consume around 200 Cumecs of water. this water gets to the Muvattupuzha river, and probably the flood in that river has contribution from this water.

Mullaperiyar system can output 2500cusecs (71 cumecs) to the current drain to the east. The inflow, as per the TN Govt was 350 Cumecs (Not 500 as per some news reports). Idukki discharged 1500 Cumecs at the peak of the flood. Both dams were full at the time. So, we could have got a reduction of 350 Cumecs if we had a spillover system to TN.

Of course this would have eased the flood a bit. Probably by half. It would not have alleviated it fully. But it would have flooded an area of 150 square kilometres at 1 metre height in TN. (350 Cumecs, 5 Days). How would you manage that? Remember, this flooding happens probably for a week or two, like in a few years.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Prasad » 20 Aug 2018 11:49

SaiK,
its a question of a possible hygiene issue versus the environmental impact of all those small water bottles.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 12:26

mmm.. it depends on how the bottle was made (how dangerous/polluted) and how the bottle gets recycled or reused. I am assuming the best case, that it doesn't cause harm more than virus/bacteria can.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 12:28

planned and staged release is important

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 20 Aug 2018 12:57

As expected Kerala Floods 2018 is moving from rescue mode to relief. And now more relief materials are also coming from various parts of India.
Kerala flooded with help; Centre to give 50,000 mt food grains.
* A compartively poorer state like Chattisgarh (infested with Naxal problems) is sending in 2500 ton of rice.
* MH Govt. is sending in 30 ton worth relief materials. They had already sent in 3.5 ton of relief materials.
* Odisha government has sent 244 trained rescue officers and 65 safety boats. They have already offered Rs 10 crore and 500 million ton polythene sheets.

It is good to see all states are chipping in at the time of need. This should help shutting the mouth of vested groups in KL and elsewhere unneccessarily trying to come up with a "score card" of every relief effort. Honestly, it would be a shame if this kind of us v/s them stories are made up.

Kerala floods: Challenge shifts from rescue to relief.
A major challenge during the relief operations would be ensuring the health & hygene aspects in the relief camps, ensuring proper sanitation. There are some information coming in that in areas like Chengannur, Allappey Dt. there could be large scale casualties (people who drowned in their own homes).

Minor issues would be in the collapse of law and order mechanism with the police overwhelmed with other tasks. There are incidents of one Reliance Mall completely looted, and that of some commie youth organisations now getting into extortion of shop keepers in the name of relief efforts :evil:.And there are also some cases of black marketing and over pricing reported.

Railway operations are also limping back to normalcy. The last I heard the major trunk routes (right from Mangalore upto Trivandrum) are now opened up for rail traffic. Special trains etc. are being put on track, and once the rakes all reach the right station the scheduled services would start :).

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 20 Aug 2018 13:52

UlanBatori wrote:CM's flood damage assessment: 19000 crores.

Saw a good suggestion in Facebook group (and it is shared with CM's office as well). If monetary compensation is given to people (which is most likely), then use Aadhaar identification for that. This would bring in very high transperency in the fund disbursement. As of today KL has more than 95% of her population having Aadhaar IDs. Many would have lost the ID cards, but their IRIS and Finger Print scanning is still possible.

With Okhchi relief fund being used for CM for helicopter rides etc., there should be a better mechanism (and audit) this time around.

Rakesh wrote:I saw the video and since I speak Malayalam, this man is talking utter rubbish. He needs to be in jail!
Classic Kerala Commie behaviour.

Now that the floods have receded the usual stories & politics have started :). The latest I heard was that this chap was an ex-soldier. And that all he asked was the Chief Minister to protect his family and call in the Army (which he felt was the best rescue team to be here). His supporters says that this by itself is not a threat or insult to the CM or Kerala State. Now who prompted this chap to wear a uniform is still to be found out. One trail of this video sharing has ended up at the phone of the P.A of the Opposition Leader (Ramesh Chennithala of the Congress). There could be multiple other trails as well.

Looks like the man's identity is now known, and he may face at least some tangible charges; that is for impersonation of an Army official.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby rsingh » 20 Aug 2018 16:52

Singha wrote:the rail neer is ok, treated water.
cannot have pallets of khan style bottled water trucked up like desert storm.

Xactly my question. Do we have some standardised pallet system for India? Euro pallet pool system is great. It saves time and it is cheaper to load and unload.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby vina » 20 Aug 2018 17:01

Dileep wrote:I got some more data point: At full capacity of 780MW, the Idukki power generator will consume around 200 Cumecs of water. this water gets to the Muvattupuzha river, and probably the flood in that river has contribution from this water.

Mullaperiyar system can output 2500cusecs (71 cumecs) to the current drain to the east. The inflow, as per the TN Govt was 350 Cumecs (Not 500 as per some news reports). Idukki discharged 1500 Cumecs at the peak of the flood. Both dams were full at the time. So, we could have got a reduction of 350 Cumecs if we had a spillover system to TN.

Of course this would have eased the flood a bit. Probably by half. It would not have alleviated it fully. But it would have flooded an area of 150 square kilometres at 1 metre height in TN. (350 Cumecs, 5 Days). How would you manage that? Remember, this flooding happens probably for a week or two, like in a few years.


I had promised myself to stay away from BRF and never to post here again, because it has seems to have lost all sanity and most old and sane folks have fled. But what happened in Kerala is a monumental tragedy and I think you started asking the right questions, but are looking at the wrong places.

The answer to what you are looking for (and also what the Yak Herder talked about as "overflow") is not in civil engg /hydraulics, but in decision theory (the kind of stuff I use everyday) and how to make decisions under uncertainty.

A very critical concept is called "Expected Value of Perfect Information" . Google for it. I hit google and am posting the smallest Youtube on what it is here for you to look up. I dont vouch for the quality of it, but I do hope in 2 mins, it manages to give a gist of what it means.


After the Youtube you will realise why a "forecast" has such deep economic value and why everyone spends a fortune (all major companies, govts etc.. on it). In the Hedge Fund/Investing/Fund Management world we are so deep into this, and that is why you have strategies like "staging" (ie seed, angel, series A , B etc..) which increases information with time and hence you make more informed choice and in public investing , earnings forecast etc . Note it need not be "perfect" or 100% right, but I hope that the YouTube and your reading on that would have convinced you that even a halfway decent forecast is FAR better than none.

You are right in noting that a 100 year event like this cannot be engineered out , it is simply too expensive and the economics dont warrant it. The best you can do is MANAGE it. So how do you do it and how does it work in real life.

Case in point. The 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone . 26 Villages submerged by swell, 10,000 lives lost and roughly $5B in damage. Contrast this with Similar Cylone Phailin 15 years later. Only 40 Lives Lost! What was the difference ? World Bank Says How

The key is , HOW is it done. It all boils down to forecast. While a cyclone is easier to track and forecast with advance warning of 24 hours or more, a cloud burst and heavy rain is not possible to do via satellite. Ever wondered why we see the hourly /daily very localised forecast in developed countries (N America, Europe, Australia , Japan), where you can see the TV and decide to take the umbrella out or not, or whether to dress warm that day or dress down , but what we get in India is "baarish hone ki sambhavana hai in madhya bharat, konkan, keral etc in CBSE Hindi "? . That is because we historically did not have doppler weather radar covering the country giving localised weather predictions in near real time and hence no prediction for things like flash floods, tornadoes etc.

The fundamental problem is the opening of the dams when the water was at max storage and the next deluge of rain meaning reservoirs discharging at max rate. This is a classical problem of decision making under uncertainty . It is like this. If you are the guy manning the sluices, you have to store full reservoir for irrigation, power and everything. So you top up.Okay, for a contingency you probably keep a 1 or 2 feet buffer. But what if it rains like there is no tomorrow and your allowance is used up ? You have to open and flood the downstream areas and that is what happened. The only way this flooding could have been avoided, is IFF , you had lowered the reservoirs in advance (say 24 or 36 hrs ahead) and you had enough reservoir capacity to absorb the deluge that followed. But look at the huge dilemma you have. What if you lower the reservoir by 15 feet in anticipation, and if IT DOESNT RAIN ? Same thing happened in Madras flood too last year, when they had to open the Chemberambakkam & Poondi reservoir and basically flood Madras to save the reservoirs.

The ONLY way out is to have a "perfect information" aka "forecast" that is GRANULAR and accurate enough to do it. For that you need Doppler Radar. After the Uttarakhand disaster, the Govt put in plans to put in Doppler Radar networks in India. So what is the scene in Kerala ? Going by the reservoir opening schedule, India and Kerala must NOT have doppler radars right ?

Do think over these
South India's first Doppler Weather Radar Inaugerated
New Doppler Weather Radar Commissioned [b]Now Where is THIS PARTICULAR radar ?[/url]
[ulr=https://atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/Langleyradar.html] Why did other communities campaign for this radar and why? How does it help and what does it do?[/url]

The TN Govt are behaving like DIX. But they too are facing the same "decision making under uncertainty" problem. I can see where they are coming from.They too like the KL govt are driving BLIND.

Since KL has taken it in the gonads and has suffered serious death and devastation that will set it back by 5 years or so, it is VERY important, that these questions are addressed and answered.

1. Were the Kochi and TVM doppler weather radars able to give advance forecasts of the massive precipitation that was to happen ? Was that forecast and constant updates been communicated up and down the network and widely disseminated to the govt and used in flood control and management ?
a. As an aside, the reason why the British radar system worked in WWII while the German Freya was nearly usesless, was because the British system had an "information' back bone and a command and control system that it fed into and was networked, while the German Freya was stand alone .

2. If NO, why NOT ? If YES, Have the flooding and management protocols been updated to handle superior information (ie, you can actually now drive with eyes open and NOT drive blind?)

Now India has suffered 3 horrendous severe weather episodes (Uttarakhand, Madras and now Kerala). It is HIGH time, we need to put in a functioning doppler weather radar coverage fully . If the ISRO+BEL technology radar in Kochi and TVM did NOT work, get rid of them. If they are not networked to a command and control system that seamlessly works with flood control etc. Put that in place RIGHT away.

A 12 hour notice, would have give an Cyclone Phalin like opportunity that Orissa magnificently organised as described in the World Bank report. Orissa evacuated 1 million people . Kerala too could have done so. They pre-positioned relief and rescue equipment and resources. KL could have done as well . Roads were reopened within 24 hours. KL could have done so either (maybe it will happen here). But all in all, KL wouldn't have been caught unawares.

IMD Weather Radar Pics- Kochi .

Hope you push the right buttons on this somewhere and something good comes out of it overall and this tragedy is NEVER repeated again. Goodluck . Bye

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 20:29

so, water subsides & dries up, mother reaches home to assess situation. thieves and rogues (anti-nationals - there is a huge community based living out near by, we know which rogue pool they come from) arrive before her to steal what not - water and electricity meter, whatever they can grab. I just can't believe these people.

these are the reasons, I lose trust in giving. I can be the giver, and I can be the sufferer,.. but it is hard to be playing as a victim - this is always my experience thus far dealing with anything public.
Last edited by SaiK on 20 Aug 2018 20:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 20:33

SaiK wrote:batori ji, I'd not have done the same. I'd have arranged the dump to be close by but away from the water body.what goes around, comes around


I am reminded of the scene from the movie "Airport" (Arthur bin Hailey, 1960s/70s) where the Maintenance Chief is at the controls of the Boeing 707 that is stuck in a snowdrift at the edge of the longest runway, and the stricken airplane is coming in to land. The bulldozers are already moving, ordered to shove the 707 off the runway as $100 million trash with or without him on board.
Same deal here. Emergency, road bridge needs to open. not the time to worry about sorting cans and bottles.

Very sorry to hear of the situation, Saiji.
Wonder if community can organize to demand 100% restoration from the Idiotstan that caused the disaster.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 20 Aug 2018 20:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 20 Aug 2018 20:35

boundary conditions janAb (if true). I am with you on the strategy.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 20 Aug 2018 20:40

SaiK wrote:so, water subsides & dries up, mother reaches home to assess situation. thieves and rogues (anti-nationals - there is a huge community based living out near by, we know which rogue pool they come from) arrive before her to steal what not - water and electricity meter, whatever they can grab.

Sorry to hear about the loss. But more such incidents would be getting reported. The flood also has bought out some of the worst behaviours (along with very many good incidents).

Now there are stories coming about CPI(M) workers trying to take over the supply of relief materials and provisions :( :evil: .

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 21:55

Generally, administration and social media are conveying positives. Volunteerism of New Gen is amazing. EyeTee ppl cranking out apps and coordinating with their awesome abilities. Bijnejppl showing superb bijnej sense by going out there and doing the job, free. Generate the goodwill...


Collector-bibi of TVM delivering inspirational sbeech onlee. :eek: Calls Malloo response global precedent-setter.

In Dera 3-shiv-nam, a company is simply advertising via SMS in Angreji and Malayalam that they will come out and get your home cleaned, free. Soliciting volunteers to join of course, but what initiative!! They have the expertise, they will deliver. Yeah, if they win customers' hearts for the next decade that's well-deserved.
Same story all over the place.

This is the mood that was needed. Self-help coordinated by business and general public, Just-Do-It mentality. This clarifies how to deliver help from outside: deliver cash and credit!!! Let the ppl buy stuff and get the businesses back on their feet, let the businesses buy stuff and stock their stores. Put ppl to work.

A BJP type (Suresh Kochattil) tried to convey the basic message but sounded a bit pompous and poor choice of words (should read these things from carefully prepared text, not ad lib). He got savaged by the Social Media lynch mobs of pompous wimmens. But his point was correct: Sending old clothes from Australia is a non-starter. Sending PayTM transfers is good.

A story from distant past might help. There is a small-shop owner: shop is run by him and his Bibi, they sell mostly Re 1 or 5 items (used to be 10 paisa items), customers are school kids as much as other passersby.

Back about 30 years ago he had a serious illness and had to take off from work for a while. Operation etc. Heavy medical costs, his wife also had to take the time to take care of him. Then they opened the shop - but he had no capital to buy stuff. I remember (under advice from Supreme HQ) going out to his shop and buying Rs. 500 worth of stuff, much more than we could use but maybe useful down the line. In those days that was maybe $40, and was big money. No charity, mind you. Result: he got enough cash to buy stuff to sell.
Well.. he's still running his shop, and appears to be doing as well as he has ever done. Which reminded me just now that his shop probably got clobbered by the 4 feet of stinking mud right now: got to see how he came out.

This is same as what POTUS BO did in 2008 to resuscitate US economy, I am sure he learned from me. But point is, even a small boost enables tenacious businesspeople to climb out by themselves. SO! GO SPEND MONEY IN MALLOOSTAN. Give the people cash to spend, or spend it yourself on stuff you think you might be able to use or sell down the line. Malloos will bootstrap themselves out of the crisis, they have never been able to count on the Twin Elephants or the Central Guvrmand for anything in a timely manner.

I am telling my relatives to spend on getting stuff for their store. Deliver free aid to people, but get moving. Times will improve.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 22:20

vina wrote:The answer to what you are looking for (and also what the Yak Herder talked about as "overflow") is not in civil engg /hydraulics, but in [b]decision theory [/b](the kind of stuff I use everyday) and how to make decisions under uncertainty.
A very critical concept is called "Expected Value of Perfect Information"
The key is , HOW is it done. It all boils down to forecast.


Decision Theory With Accurate Forecasting is what we use in e-horoscope. :) A deal for Dopular radar will no doubt be a good bijnej for KL tap level scammers after the Solar Scam, but what if you accept that your prediction standard of coming off the END of rainy season with Full Pool can be relaxed, against a fair certainty of avoiding catastrophic flooding? Point is that that there is a **HUGE** difference caused by that last 20% of water dumped on top of an already flooded river/canal/field system - and in a very short time, too fast for the flow to equalize levels. So a good cost analysis (or hard experience of getting slammed with citizen class-action lawsuits and criminal probes and getting your guvrmand kicked out) is the best way to ensure that such a folly is never repeated. Look at it this way: It is April end and there's a power shortage. Who will remember that it is because Rafael let out water for 5 days in July, being too chicken to see the level go up more than 5 meters below full pool?

BTW, Dileepji, Idukki (see link that Prasad posted) has **NOT** been operating anywhere NEAR 780 MW so has no call to release even 200 cusec. It has been at around 350MW the past 2 saal, and that not too continuously. As I thought (actually better, because I thought it was near zero). TN flooding number assumes zero consumption. If nothing else, ppl can store some in teppekulams 10m deep and make money offering rides in a leaky boat. I remember a ride like that in Madurai Teppekulam when I was around 8 years old. Very exciting time-resolved MatLab problem there too to figure whether the boat would sink as the rate of bailout with an empty can could keep up with the rate of leakage inflow before the thing reached the other side.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 20 Aug 2018 23:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 20 Aug 2018 22:55

>>BTW, Dileepji, Idukki (see link that Prasad posted) has **NOT** been operating anywhere NEAR 780 MW so has no call to release even 200 cusec.

Sir, the release was to avoid the level going beyond the MSL. No relation to generation capacity. Generation in April-June will be low because being summer, but June to August was at max.

It makes perfect sense to predict rains (20/20 hind sight onlee) and release water in advance. I readily admit that it didn't make sense then to my peabrain why they should open shutters when it reached 2397 ft, when the capacity is 2403. I think same thing happened to the political officers at the minister's office.

Yes, TN flooding assumes zero consumption. How much can the old lady bhumi and old gent surya take in 5 days? Not much I say! OK... 10M deep Teppekulams (I haven't seen any that deep, but I will let it slide). Still need 15 sq km of them! Not good... Sir... Will not sell to Nattamai Palaniyappa Goundar.

So... We got essentially the following viable solutions:

1. Improved rain predictions, and re-write the dam op manuals based on that. Of course, you need to get co-operation from the TN netas.
2. Better warning and evacuation system based on terrain data.
3. Some serious re-zoning, preventing "prime waterfront real estate" developments at critical locations.
4. Yearly vazhipadu at all the temples of importance to ensure that flood happens around new moon.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 23:15

I plan to go into bijnej with Ulan Bator Boat-House Pvt Ltd. Not house-boat, but Boat-House, built on floatable foundation onlee. With inflatable bags tied to the radio station, automatically inflating when the announcer says: Dam Oben Sesame! Build on low-level land, no problem! Great waterfront view in July-August. Just kidding. Saw that some Malloo had been fired in the Gelf for sneering at Malloostan flood victims, but network glitch prevents me from seeing why, on my smart-phone.


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