Bharat Rakshak

Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan (of salt pit burial fame) started out 50 years back.
I sometimes wonder how this guy will meet his end .

Today marks the 50 years of Communist terror on @RSSorg in Kerala. It was on April 28, 1969, Vadikkal Ramakrishnan, a swayamsevak born in Dalit family, was brutally murdered by CPM goons. Current Kerala CM Vijayan was 1st accused in the murder. Bharatiyas observe today as #AntiFascismDay


https://twitter.com/excomradekerala/sta ... 4893086720

Dera Mahab Ali Information and Communication Service (DICKS) predicts based on infinite analysis (data tends to zero hence analysis tends to infinity. Divide by zero onlee) as follows:

UDF: 12
LDF: 6
BJP: 2

https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... ssion=true

Reports on growth of IS recruits in Kerala.
Wish there was a map with the article.

TN is the next such state.
We need a thread to monitor TN.

Look what the baudhik pramukh of RSS does to Sabarimala movement: Questions raised over RSS leader’s stand

R Hari, the former all-India boudhik pramuakh of the RSS, has some personal interests in supporting the entry of all women to Sabarimala

This is well noted, and it isn't going to do good for RSS and by association, BJP.

Dileep wrote:Look what the baudhik pramukh of RSS does to Sabarimala movement: Questions raised over RSS leader’s stand

R Hari, the former all-India boudhik pramuakh of the RSS, has some personal interests in supporting the entry of all women to Sabarimala

This is well noted, and it isn't going to do good for RSS and by association, BJP.

RSS views are expressed by Sarsangachalak or Sah Karyavah and they have made it amply clear that tradition must be protected.

SPattath wrote:

Dileep wrote:Look what the baudhik pramukh of RSS does to Sabarimala movement: Questions raised over RSS leader’s stand



This is well noted, and it isn't going to do good for RSS and by association, BJP.

RSS views are expressed by Sarsangachalak or Sah Karyavah and they have made it amply clear that tradition must be protected.

True onlee.. but there is a considerable number of 'thinkers' who still stick to their 'progressive' and 'renaissance' ideas. This R Hari guy have a big fan following among the SS, and a lot of facebook post war is currently happening between the fractions.

We (who are outside the sangh family) will closely watch how things evolve. It would be for the good of RSS and BJP to reign in these forces.

Dileep wrote:

SPattath wrote: RSS views are expressed by Sarsangachalak or Sah Karyavah and they have made it amply clear that tradition must be protected.

True onlee.. but there is a considerable number of 'thinkers' who still stick to their 'progressive' and 'renaissance' ideas. This R Hari guy have a big fan following among the SS, and a lot of facebook post war is currently happening between the fractions.

We (who are outside the sangh family) will closely watch how things evolve. It would be for the good of RSS and BJP to reign in these forces.

Iam a Sangh Karyakartha. Sangh is fully behind devotees on Sabarimala.In our Prantha Shivir, Sabarimala was one of the 3 issues discussed by Sah Karyavah.

Once election is over, there are several eminent sangh leaders (R Hari, R V Babu etc) who publicly came out saying that 'conventions could be changed' etc. These guys had been writing many articles and books supporting women entry to Sabarimala before SC judgement.

I figure RSS has good organizational control on policies. So, either let the leadership disown these public musings of these 'baudhik leaders' or let these people publicly change their narrative.

This R Hari guy is well known for going hard against the traditional Kerala hindu values. He is GSB. Unfortunately he got a lot of fans, so lot of facebook war is happening in support of his views.

That is my concern. I am on an 'issue based alliance' with Sangh Parivar, and it will shake if these guys go around speaking against this core issue.

Dileep wrote:Look what the baudhik pramukh of RSS does to Sabarimala movement

but there is a considerable number of 'thinkers' who still stick to their 'progressive' and 'renaissance' ideas. This R Hari guy have a big fan following among the SS, and a lot of facebook post war is currently happening between the fractions.

That is my concern. I am on an 'issue based alliance' with Sangh Parivar, and it will shake if these guys go around speaking against this core issue.

R. Hari may not be the only chap who is into this. There is another RSS intellectual who actually writes good articles (on history etc.) in Facebook. Recently he made a post on Sakthan Thampuran; an erst-while king of Cochin Kingdom who was ruthless when it comes to enforcing his diktats. He is to have chopped the head of a temple oracle who opposed his plans for cleaning up the teak forest around the Vadakkumnathan temple, Thrissur, Kerala. This "intellectual" was using that to kind of tell the Sabari Mala devotees that all these rituals are man-made and a strong ruler can easily get them changed. It was as if secretly acknowledging the communist mafia (whose religous identity is any way dubious) from North Malabar in Kerala. This is the same place from where folks like the present CM of Kerala comes in.

But one thing for sure; if RSS and BJP tries their standard "politriks" in Kerala rest assured they would lose what ever support which they have now in Kerala. There is a generation of people (35 years and above) who wish to see their faith system to remain the same. If BJP & RSS feels that being "progressive & liberal" is by destroying the Hindu faith system in Kerala will benefit them; they should jolly well realise that if that was the case the CPI(M) and CPI are already champions in it. The bane of BJP in Kerala has been "leaders" who really have no sense of purpose in life. Most of them are folks who the other major parties in Kerala have clearly shunned.

One one hand I see BJP desperately trying to hang on to any issue in which some temple, or temple elephant is involved and on the other hand you see all sort of baudhik pramukhs talking some thing else. For many Keralites, BJP==RSS.

Are you guys going to diss RSS while the real crooks get elected?

Is it because its an easy pinata?

I not ever since Sabarimala all that you folks want to say is BJP/RSS must do this and that.While the PV and the Congress gang get away with murder.
Hello its RSS workers who get murdered by PFI gangs while the other look aside.

So what is the official stance of the Congress and CPI(M) in Kerala as regards allowing the entry of women into Sabarimala?

ramana wrote:Are you guys going to diss RSS while the real crooks get elected?
Is it because its an easy pinata?I not ever since Sabarimala all that you folks want to say is BJP/RSS must do this and that.While the PV and the Congress gang get away with murder.Hello its RSS workers who get murdered by PFI gangs while the other look aside.

In Punjabi, This is known as
"Khaan Peen Nu Baandri , Dande Khaan Nu Rissh" I.e She monkey eats all the berries and fruit and poor Balu keeping watch get the stick from guard.

ramana wrote:Are you guys going to diss RSS while the real crooks get elected?

Is it because its an easy pinata?

I not ever since Sabarimala all that you folks want to say is BJP/RSS must do this and that.While the PV and the Congress gang get away with murder.
Hello its RSS workers who get murdered by PFI gangs while the other look aside.

We want these 'progressive renaissance thinkers' who happen to be leading figures of RSS to keep their 'payasam holes' shut and NOT write articles supporting women entry into Sabarimala. Actually, much of the arguments made by the commies are taken verbatim from the book written by this R Hari chap.

What these guys doing is FIFTH COLUMN treachery!! What commies and congies do doesn't harm as much. They are on the other side of the line anyway.

nachiket wrote:So what is the official stance of the Congress and CPI(M) in Kerala as regards allowing the entry of women into Sabarimala?

Cong: We are 'with the devotees' and against women entry.
Commie: We are progressive renaissance party, and will make sure that women enter the place.

Dileep wrote:

nachiket wrote:So what is the official stance of the Congress and CPI(M) in Kerala as regards allowing the entry of women into Sabarimala?

Cong: We are 'with the devotees' and against women entry.
Commie: We are progressive renaissance party, and will make sure that women enter the place.

It was INC lawyers who put a weak defense and deliberately lost the case in SC, and Trupti Desai is an INC candidate. So INC is playing both ways.
So basically INC funds the activists and at the local level gives lip service support and crocodile tears to Sabrimala, why a few Sanghis might have a contrarian view, 99% of Sanghis are for keeping up the tradition. SO INC has 1% support for tradition and 99% for women entry, Sanghis 1% for breaking tradition and 99% support for tradition.

It is upto Keralites to focus on 1% and forget 99%. Ask your selfs this question where are the left feminazi activists/ thier foreign funded NGO against. Why they are spewing venom against BJP and not INC who are supposedly so pro devotees at Sabrimala.

IN this country BJP is held up against its weakest link and INC against its 1 best deed, it is the 1% worst answer of BJP vs 1% best answer of INC. Different standards anyone.

Dileep wrote:Cong: We are 'with the devotees' and against women entry.

Really Dileep ji?
Can you mention where in congress party manifesto they take that stand on Sabarimala or atleast raise the topic of Sabarimala ?
Btw do you really believe that the nonsikular guys in Kerala congress unit will have the last word in the congie universe ?
Should i now explain to you the universally known fact that Congies are highcommand based party who work on dienasty diktats ?

Rahul Gandhi's position throughout the period the street struggles for protecting Sabarimala were happening

Congress president Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday said he was in favour of allowing women of all ages to enter the Lord Ayyappa temple in Sabarimala, putting the party's Kerala unit on the defensive. Rahul's comment has contradicted the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee's decision to rally behind the devotees who have been protesting against the recent Supreme Court order lifting the ban on women between 10 and 50 years inside the temple.

“My stand is against the party's stand. Men and women are equal. Women should be allowed to go anywhere they want,” Rahul said. https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2018/ ... entry.html

Rahul Gandhi's position after the Sabarimala season comes to a close:

“I can see validity in the argument that tradition needs to be protected and I can see validity in the argument that women should have equal rights,” he said at the press meet.

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/r ... ghts-94953

Then come election time i.e after 4 bloody months of devotees led by RSS/Sangh activists facing the Kerala police boots & lathis with cases being foisted on them & locked up in the thousands and when finally Sabarimala was getting closed for the season after Makara vilakku , then Rahul Gandhi conveniently comes out claiming that he "changed his position" - not even to completely oppose Womens entry(as his local party workers are supposedly demanding as per Dileep ji) but to claim triumphantly that he supports both stands that Women should enter & Women should not enter !!

What will Rahul Gandhi do when the next pilgrim season begins and the feminists are baying at the Sabarimala temple door ?
Will he sit on the temple entrance doorsill and ask the feminists to sit beside him?
Personally i think he will be vacationing in Italy enjoying his well deserved long holiday after his karyakartas fought the election for him in the Indian summer.

Tharoor also did a flip flop on the issue but only after he realized his re-election chances were being hurt because of his "progressive" position.

nachiket wrote:Tharoor also did a flip flop on the issue but only after he realized his re-election chances were being hurt because of his "progressive" position.

Nachiket ji
Tharoor had to flip because he had to contest Thiruvananthapuram LS seat where he feared Hindu ire.

Rahul Gandhi didnt even Flip !!
Even before election he said both Women not entering & Women entering are valid!!!
Just like this

He knows that his seat in Wayanad is safe because the mainorities will ensure his win.
eff the dutty Kerala yindoos they are idiots anyway and will vote for him & his party is his logic .

Let us not forget that ALL Parties including BJP welcomed the SC judgement initially, then started scurrying around when tens of thousands of people went out to the streets on their own.

Cong in KL quickly moved to the "we are with the devotees, but we will not go out agitating" stance, where they stayed put. Now, it could very well be taquiyya, but they are still at that position, which must be appreciated.

The GE being over, my position for the coming state election in 2021 is for a thrashing defeat for the commies (and I will align with the devil to get that done). BJP have no means of doing that (that is reality.. you may not like it) so it should be UDF. Of course, there are seats where BJP have good chance, which must be fought with all might. But the rest should go to UDF for the sake of routing the commies.

If BJP packs off the current infighting leaders to an uninhabited island in Andamans (I have nothing against the fauna/flora there BTW) and get fresh blood who can work at deep grass root level, they have a fighting chance to become a significant opposition.

ramana wrote:I not ever since Sabarimala all that you folks want to say is BJP/RSS must do this and that.While the PV and the Congress gang get away with murder.

The issue here is that some "intellectuals" of RSS itself taking a different view from what RSS/Sangh was taking in the case vis-a-vis Sabari Mala. The BJP & RSS in Kerala is getting some traction only because they were quite vociferous in supporting the Hindu devotees. If they had not taken that stance; I can give it in writing BJP & RSS will be non-entities in KL politics. The RSS "intellectuals" seems to be hell bent on destorying what ever popular support they got in the temple case, and the state's BJP leadership is pathetic and just focusing on back stabbing each other. K. Surendran @ Ulli Sura at least tried doing good in Sabari Mala, but then we have folks like Sreedharan Pillai who does nothing, but also is too happy to scuttle any chances of K.Surendran.

nachiket wrote:So what is the official stance of the Congress and CPI(M) in Kerala as regards allowing the entry of women into Sabarimala?

Commies are straight forward. They have no problems in what happens in Sabari Mala. But they want women to enter the shrine (citing constituitional provisions). But destorying Hindu belief system is an easy game for commies, so they try their best here.

The Congress party are still in a dilemma. At national level they support women entry, but Ra.Ga said the local Congress units can decide based on the local sentiments. So local Congress units now are against changing the traditions.

Sachin wrote:I can give it in writing BJP & RSS will be non-entities in KL politics.

So how would that be any different from the present situation?

Kashi wrote:So how would that be any different from the present situation?

Today thanks to what BJP & RSS stance in Sabari Mala issue, at least gives them a chance to win 2-3 Lok Sabha seats. Common Hindus do trust them to be around when their religious beliefs are questioned. So due to their stance in Sabari Mala, BJP & RSS have more prospects in Kerala. Now if Sreedharan Pillai & RSS "intellectuals" want to go back to the old status quo, then it is upto them. BJP & RSS will be considered as "untouchables" and Hindu fanatics, while CPI(M) cadre can still continue to kill them.

Sachin wrote:

Kashi wrote:So how would that be any different from the present situation?

Today thanks to what BJP & RSS stance in Sabari Mala issue, at least gives them a chance to win 2-3 Lok Sabha seats. Common Hindus do trust them to be around when their religious beliefs are questioned. So due to their stance in Sabari Mala, BJP & RSS have more prospects in Kerala. Now if Sreedharan Pillai & RSS "intellectuals" want to go back to the old status quo, then it is upto them. BJP & RSS will be considered as "untouchables" and Hindu fanatics, while CPI(M) cadre can still continue to kill them.

You want to trust one RSS 'Intellectual' not even in any Sangh responsibility currently over what the Sarsanghachalak said?? That's not how Sangh works.
You want to continue voting for Commies because you didn't like what one Sangh swayamsevak said but conveniently ignore how Sangh organized protests all over Kerala and South India over this issue.

SPattath wrote:You want to continue voting for Commies because you didn't like what one Sangh swayamsevak said but conveniently ignore how Sangh organized protests all over Kerala and South India over this issue.

It is not me & you, my dear sir. The Sangh should look united in Kerala, and have a firm stand in the case of issues like at Sabari Mala. And not allow ex-Sangh workers, or disgruntled Sangh workers to deliberately leak out a stance which is exactly opposite to the official stance. A lot of people in Kerala can easily be confused; and the main stream media in Kerala would ensure that this confusion is deliberately spread. Any thing which can break the unity of Hindus in Kerala, on issues like that of Sabari Mala, rest assured the communists, EJs, and the main stream media in Kerala would encourage it. The RSS & BJP folks in Kerala should ideally be knowing all this. Here it is clearly a Sangh (active or dormant, I don't know) "intellectual's" thoughts which are being shared by the commies (to cause confusion in the minds of people). Why even give such a chance?

R Hari is not EX Sangh. He is officially 'retired' from active work but lives at the state HQ of sangh and very influential among the leaders. And he is not alone. A lot of support happened on cyberspace for his views.

Saw a very welcome news. Amit Shah put in a strategy to associate with the Xtians here in KL. Already there are a small presence in NDA in the form of P C Thomas and recently P C George. This need to be expanded as much as possible. There is a significant Xtian population here that is NOT EJ and happily coexist with yindoos.

If this can be pulled off really well, we may not need UDF to kick out the commies.

hnair wrote:Now it is for India to do the right thing - it is up to rest of India to pour into Kerala and fix this, since it is a rest-of-India activist who made the rest-of-India judicial system have its say. There is nothing that the commies can do, if rest of India is mobilized for a grand Kumbmela style pilgrimage to the south.

hmm...gives me ideas of a Heritage Ramayana tour....tracing Rama's travels from Ayodhya to Rameshwaram...heck..maybe including Nepal with Rama's pre-vanvaas days..

Rameshwaram attracts some "north" crowd already..heard quite a bit of hindi when I was there last, a few years ago..

Gus wrote:

hnair wrote:Now it is for India to do the right thing - it is up to rest of India to pour into Kerala and fix this, since it is a rest-of-India activist who made the rest-of-India judicial system have its say. There is nothing that the commies can do, if rest of India is mobilized for a grand Kumbmela style pilgrimage to the south.

hmm...gives me ideas of a Heritage Ramayana tour....tracing Rama's travels from Ayodhya to Rameshwaram...heck..maybe including Nepal with Rama's pre-vanvaas days..

There is already a special train service for this, IIRC, though this will not mobilize a large crowd in the way hnair saar is saying

Gus wrote:Rameshwaram attracts some "north" crowd already..heard quite a bit of hindi when I was there last, a few years ago..

Hindi is almost lingua franca given the sheer volume of pilgrims. Most hotel people can manage passable Hindi, not to mention the increased number staff of late who hail from the north. In fact, I had the best chappatis in the south at a humble looking Rajasthani bhojanalay when I last visited Rameswaram. That they were unlimited was icing on the cake.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 459622.cms

Cool Get appointed by Kerala Govt, make a weak case, loose and bill INR 62 Lakhs to TDB. Make grandious statements and the public in Kerela duly gave MP's to INC.

But I hope the Dubious game played by this fellow and his party here should now atleast be out in the open. Many in this forum supported him taking up the case, now we know why.

And the best part about it , here is the kicker- now the TDB says he was not recommended by it, only Gopal Subramanium and Parasaran were recommended by it, but "Kerala Govt" a.k.a commies appointed Mr. Abhishek Manu Singhvi, who is billing a paltry Inr 62 Lakhs and gave a weak case but got the Election votes as if he was pro Sabrimala devotees.

Well Played by the INC- they are 0 at Governance bit great at Politics.

Interesting comment Aditya_V.

Aditya_V, the requests for Gopal Subbramanium and Adv Parasaran by TDB is odd to say the least:

1) Adv Parasaran has been representing NSS since years, against TDB's position! Her ishis listing before courtstarted hearing. What is even odd is that Adv Sundaram, who was arguing for TDB, has switched sides after the verdict and has joined NSS legal team

2) Request for Adv Gopal Subramanium as the TDB counsel is even more strange. As the Amicus Curae of Sree Padmanabha Temple Case, he has been scathing of TDB <face palm> and its practices.

Regarding the INC games and Singhvi, these lawyers represent all and sundry who can afford them. We had read of Mehul Choksi being represented by Shree Jaitley as also his interventions on behalf of the Shivaganga MP's son etc. Usually these big shots run it more like DC's lobby firms than a ideologically driven legal entity. Sibal and co seem to consult for everyone in sight, for a fee. There is no shame on any sides and no politician trusts them beyond getting them off the noose

Strange that this thread has been quiet. Floods are back, and getting worse.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/k ... 2019-08-10

districts, death toll rises to 46
Incessant rains have once again created havoc in Kerala, which left more than 40 people dead. Massive rains over the last two days also caused landslide in Nilambur region of Malappuram district, in which reportedly over 40 people are stranded.

The current flood kind of validates the govt stance that 'dam opening' was not exactly the only problem of last years flood. This time the dams were practically empty. The big ones are still only half full. Still we had serious floods and landslides.

Last year, I kind of lost focus, since we had widespread destruction close to where I live, and the sudden rise in water happened due to dam opening. A lot of areas that wouldn't see a flood by rain alone were inundated. A lot of damage to which I can personally relate (friends, colleagues, the mansion of the big boss) happened because of the dam opening.

So, the issue - in my mind - was restricted to the 'sudden rise in water level due to dam opening'. This year, things are worse actually, due to landslides. But I feel I can think better.

We have two issues now. 1) Floods and 2)Landslides. Like hurricanes and tornadoes.

First of all, let us talk floods NOT caused by dam opening:

Let me distinguish between 'flood' and 'waterlogging'. Consider this philosophical question

Is it a 'flood' if water fills an uninhabited low lying area?

No.. That would be just waterlogging. No one cares, except maybe some fishing enthusiasts. It is a 'flood' when there is deep waterlogging in inhabited areas that displace people and damage property. We put our houses where it is prone to waterlogging and we got flood.

So, we literally walked out into the rain and started complaining we got wet.

But why there is flood now. Why not earlier?

A famous leader once said after losing in election "The other guy got more votes! Duh!". The cause of the current floods is lot of water fell from the skies. Like upto a feet in a day!! This water needs to run off somewhere, ultimately to the sea. The drainage system consisting of streams, rivulets and rivers can take only so much of water. If there is more water, it fills the low lying areas and there will be 'waterlogging'. If people are living there, then we have 'flood'.

So, what do we do? We can not point a finger at the people who went and built houses at the 'waterlogging prone area' and say "deal with it!".

Obviously, we need to have two things. 1) A system to deal with floods that happen(because they WILL happen) and 2)A system to reduce the intensity of the flood in the future (because there is no PREVENTING)

So, what it takes to deal with floods?

1. Advance warning: The proposed flood predictor will help. We also need a better 'rain predictor' than what we have with the IMD now. More importantly, we need a lot of rain gauges all over the place to collect accurate rain and water level data.

2. An evacuation and relief plan. That is very difficult to ask from a population that simultaneously believes in the principles of Karma, Advaitha, Chankian, Communism and Capitalism, all at the same time. If there ain't no flood one year, by the next year the system is gone. But it is better to at least have a formal rule book written and enforced for the babus. The buggers still use many old books made by the British religiously (like the rule that says: treat the natives like 'lying, cheating lowlives')

Now, how to reduce the intensity of the floods:

Simple onlee.. We have no way of reducing the amount of rain coming down. So, the only thing we can do is to make sure that the water drains off. Need to identify the maximum waterlogging capacity of all low lying areas, and 'construct by destruct' flow channels to take excess water away. If done scientifically, we can even dedicate some low lying areas as 'sumps' which can be used for 'risk prone farming'. Lease them out for farming, with an associated insurance policy against crop loss due to flooding.

Dileepji pls see e-pata. Thx

Dileep wrote:So, the issue - in my mind - was restricted to the 'sudden rise in water level due to dam opening'. This year, things are worse actually, due to landslides.

I feel last year's havoc was due to many factors:-
1. Dam opening. This factor cannot be excluded. My understanding is that there were many reports end eye-witness reports of rivers having water levels rising up all of a sudden (in a night) which cannot be just because of rains. The CPI(M) government will continue to negate this aspect.
2. Higher amount of rain fall.
3. Encroachment, and building of residence areas in sensitive areas. At least till last year, Kerala has not seen a major flood so lot of people could not visualise what would happen in case of river overflows etc.
4. Lack of preperation. People of Kerala and even the elected governments had not faced such a calamity in perhaps all of their lives till then. There were no "standard operating procedures" or guide books to fall back to.

This year's havoc can be attributed mainly to deforestation, encroachment and unscientific usage of land. And all these point also lead to one aspect; greed. This time the casualties and damage are due to land slides, and mainly in the Malabar (Central & Northern Kerala) area. I was reading a report that in Puthumala, Meppadi in Wayanad it was like 20 hectare worth of soil (and rain water) gushing down hill. And it was here that an entire village was completely wiped out. The reason is that this hilly area which was a forest was cleared of all trees, hoping to plant tea there. That did not happen, and people decide to do some ginger farming there. For this they raked up the soil (which made it loose, and no trees & roots to hold them). In this hill the soil is only having a depth of 1.5 mts. Under that it is all rocks. Over a period time, the land was becoming loose and with heavy rain fall, more water gushed in taking the soil along with it. And perhaps it could be the limited land area in KL, a lot of people are also willing to build homes in areas which are eco-sensitive. I was reading that in Kavalappara village, Nilambur a house worth 70 lakhs has been completely wiped off the land.

Dileep, Regarding your remark about better rain prediction.

I saw an article about how US is reaching the limits of hurricane track prediction with current technology using, supercomputers, satellite maps etc.
The folks measured the actual track vs predicted tracks and found they are reaching a limit. The weather system is non-linear and is very sensitive to initial conditions and error build up and the predictioins are good as they get without further advances in math modeling.
The error in the 1990s was 550 km and is now under 200 km.

Sachin wrote:

Dileep wrote:So, the issue - in my mind - was restricted to the 'sudden rise in water level due to dam opening'. This year, things are worse actually, due to landslides.

I feel last year's havoc was due to many factors:-
1. Dam opening. This factor cannot be excluded. My understanding is that there were many reports end eye-witness reports of rivers having water levels rising up all of a sudden (in a night) which cannot be just because of rains. The CPI(M) government will continue to negate this aspect.
2. Higher amount of rain fall.
3. Encroachment, and building of residence areas in sensitive areas. At least till last year, Kerala has not seen a major flood so lot of people could not visualise what would happen in case of river overflows etc.
4. Lack of preperation. People of Kerala and even the elected governments had not faced such a calamity in perhaps all of their lives till then. There were no "standard operating procedures" or guide books to fall back to.

This year's havoc can be attributed mainly to deforestation, encroachment and unscientific usage of land. And all these point also lead to one aspect; greed. This time the casualties and damage are due to land slides, and mainly in the Malabar (Central & Northern Kerala) area. I was reading a report that in Puthumala, Meppadi in Wayanad it was like 20 hectare worth of soil (and rain water) gushing down hill. And it was here that an entire village was completely wiped out. The reason is that this hilly area which was a forest was cleared of all trees, hoping to plant tea there. That did not happen, and people decide to do some ginger farming there. For this they raked up the soil (which made it loose, and no trees & roots to hold them). In this hill the soil is only having a depth of 1.5 mts. Under that it is all rocks. Over a period time, the land was becoming loose and with heavy rain fall, more water gushed in taking the soil along with it. And perhaps it could be the limited land area in KL, a lot of people are also willing to build homes in areas which are eco-sensitive. I was reading that in Kavalappara village, Nilambur a house worth 70 lakhs has been completely wiped off the land.

did the last years' floods loosen/weaken the substrate soil which was thus setup and was literally pushed "over the edge" by this years repeat weather onslaught

According to the state’s soil conservation department, a soil-piping issue exacerbated the flood damage in Puthumala. Officials estimate that nine separate mudslides deposited around five lakh tonnes of mud in the Puthumala area. Disaster management experts explained that when water erodes the surface of the ground, it creates an underground tunnel called a soil pipe.

Such hollows usually begin in the form of small pores and become larger with more erosion, sometimes widening enough to allow a human to crawl through. In places where the soil is porous or loose, water moves into the soil pipes and further weakens the land, causing the materials above to collapse inward and create a depression in the ground.

Indeed, many survivors think this tragedy could have been averted had they been alerted of the risk of mudslides. The Geological Survey of India had conducted a study after the floods last year, according to one of the members of the team. “We heard that it had a suggestion about the fragile nature of the region, but no follow up action was taken on it,” Ramesh Kumar, an engineering student involved in the rescue operations, said. The member however added that “the report is yet to be submitted to the authorities.”

Environmentalists have been of the view that excessive quarrying is to blame for the floods being as bad as they are this time. According to T.V. Sajeev, of the Kerala Forest Research Institute, there are 27 quarries within 5 km of Kavalappara, of which seven are still active. He added that the large scale change of crops and unrestricted construction on sensitive areas contribute to the ecological imbalance.

He and his peers are unhappy with the Centre’s and state’s dismissal of the report of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, prepared by Madhav Gadgil. The panel had suggested classifying a 140,000-sq.-km swath of the Western Ghats as ‘ecologically sensitive’. But after much dawdling, the Centre notified only 56,824 sq. km last year. The Kerala government was also against implementing the report in full because it considered the report to be against the interests of farmers across the region.

Widespread Quarrying, Soil Erosion Make Floods Worse in Kerala's North

D. Mohankumar, a meteorologist, speculated that a cloudburst could have triggered the major landslides in northern Kerala. “Cloudburst is a sudden, very heavy rainfall, usually local in nature and brief. This is a rare phenomenon but occurs in Himalayan regions,” he explained. “It happens in large cumulonimbus clouds through a process called Langmuir precipitation,” whereby small droplets rapidly fuse to form larger droplets. “It may cause flash floods suddenly.”

Ramana, the 'rain prediction' need to be, like 200 +/-50 mm in next 24 hours, which was possible by the US Met in early 2000s (when I was living in an area where one inch rain will close interstates, as the joke goes). Widespread rain gauges are more important to get actual water input data.

Dileep wrote:Ramana, the 'rain prediction' need to be, like 200 +/-50 mm in next 24 hours, which was possible by the US Met in early 2000s (when I was living in an area where one inch rain will close interstates, as the joke goes). Widespread rain gauges are more important to get actual water input data.

Very good observation.
Can you come up with a plan to involve schools to collect this data and report to a databank? make it a science project for the kids to get involved.

need format for the data so it gets reported in usable way for IMD