Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

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AshishT
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby AshishT » 23 Aug 2018 12:18

UlanBatori ji , please see : http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in/data/download/index.php

Also, this may be useful for people on ground :

http://bhuvan-noeda.nrsc.gov.in/disaste ... p?id=flood

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby siva509 » 23 Aug 2018 16:35

Ulan Batorji,
The following ArcGIS product from ESRI is gold standard in environment management, my partner has done some not-for-profit project in EU environment agency, they use this very extensively.
http://www.esri.com/library/brochures/p ... v-mgmt.pdf
It is high time India use these kind of digital environment management soon

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby siva509 » 23 Aug 2018 16:47

This solution is far cheaper and has so many use cases including town and country planning. compared to the kind of loss we faced this time(~4-5Bn USD and loss of lives) this is pennies.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 23 Aug 2018 18:09

CPI has demanded the center hand over 2500 crores if uae offer is rejected.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 23 Aug 2018 20:04

Singha wrote:CPI has demanded the center hand over 2500 crores if uae offer is rejected.

700 crores is 700 crores in INR, am I correct? How does uae's 700 crores inr = 2500 crores INR of central government. This is nothing but black mail.

Now looks like Alphonse Kannamthanam also said that UAE fund should be accepted. This fellow also seems to be a trojan horse in BJP camp.

In another report I read, GoI again says more funds can be released if Kerala gives a clear projection of its needs, which is believable and verifiable.

And during the mean time, the GoKL goof up is all getting covered up. There is also a plan to pass the blame to TN as well.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 23 Aug 2018 20:18

Yes. GoKL has filed a case in SC blaming TN govt for release of Mullaperiyar waters. Even though the dam is in Kerala it is operated by TN govt.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/keral ... 54607.html

Note the TN govt adamantly saying they have right to hold water at 142 feet regardless of the weather situation.
In all 40 dams had the gates opened almost simultaneously due to govt sticking to rules and not looking out of window.

Add SC bokwas dictates called rulings.
Truly cat like justices.

I get the feeling something is wrong with the UAE $100M offer. Its either hawla money parked abroad or some other funds.
Anyway after the GOI has a long established policy to not accept foreign aid money why this adamant insistence on getting freebies?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Aug 2018 20:44

"demonetisation" One could credibly propagate a CT that the whole catastrophe has been engineered in order to bring back the black money from UAE w/o scrutiny. Maybe 650cr is to clean out the mud from the Lulu Conf&Marriage Centre near Dera3shivnaam- or maybe 350/300 for that plus the newer Mall near Alwaye/ EKM. How can GOI determine how much baksheesh is being handed over to Sultan by Gelf EnnArrEyes to be channled back to desh as "Aid" to be diverted by CM & gang to Lulu etc's kitty with a small "Pinnarai Friction Factor" going to CPIM kitty?

Some Malloos should create a song modeled on Mushy Myoosic Pheshtival along the lines of

PInnarayi Naadu Vaneedum Kaalam

ppl sure have been "equalized" as in sent destitute, cold and wet to refugee camps. At Onam.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby vinod » 23 Aug 2018 20:57

This is getting interesting.. there was NEVER a $100 million or ( Rs.700 crores) money offer from UAE. Did CM lie or get misled???

Anyway, one thing it did effectively was divert the attention away from dam water mismanagement and unscientific release of water without any warning.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby anupmisra » 23 Aug 2018 21:07

Pakis just offered prayers and humanitarian aid for the victims of the Kerala floods. Any takers in Kerala?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 23 Aug 2018 21:47

vinod wrote:This is getting interesting.. there was NEVER a $100 million or ( Rs.700 crores) money offer from UAE. Did CM lie or get misled???

This whole idea seems to have come from a "businessman" (not a capitalist like Ambani, Adani). It seems he got the UAE sheikh to donate some amount. Even the Kerala CM came to know of this AFTER this. The kerala CM tried to get the money, and that is when GoI threw the rule books at them. Looks like the Kerala CM was not aware of this and the businessman thought that every one would just kow tow when he brings the UAE sheikh. The official posts etc may have come if the behind the scene actions turned positive. Now actions from all parties are exposed, so a change from current stance becomes more difficult.

The sheikh can donate to CM'S relief fund, but that would make it auditable. Where as charity amounts to the government rarely gets audited.

Anyway, one thing it did effectively was divert the attention away from dam water mismanagement and unscientific release of water without any warning.

True. It is for the BJP to use it's cards well and time and again ask GoKL to give a good report on how the dams got opened up. If they cannot even do these things, welk then KL will use it's PR machinery (entire MSM) to get away from justice.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 23 Aug 2018 21:50

anupmisra wrote:Pakis just offered prayers and humanitarian aid for the victims of the Kerala floods. Any takers in Kerala?

KL for time being may not insist on this foreign aid. For if they do, all their credibility would go. UAE is not really an enemy of India (though she may have lots of her agendas), but Pakistan is. KL has gone over board in giving some relief donation to Pakistan. This was when the state did not give a single paise to Utharakhand.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby disha » 23 Aug 2018 22:32

ramana wrote:I get the feeling something is wrong with the UAE $100M offer. Its either hawla money parked abroad or some other funds.
Anyway after the GOI has a long established policy to not accept foreign aid money why this adamant insistence on getting freebies?


I pointed out that much, it seems to be money laundering. Black lentils are being sowed!

There is massive rona-dhona across the news channels on how Center is wrong on refusing UAE "aid" and now needs to compensate. Even if nothing comes out of it, a narrative of helping good UAE and bad moodi can be built by BIF.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby nvishal » 23 Aug 2018 22:36

The behaviour shown by Kerala in the last 7 days is truly psychotic. Even general public on social media appears disturbed.

Honestly, never seen anything like it in the past(Assam, uttaranchal, andhra cyclone, chennai floods etc). Even kodagu karnataka is normal. Can some malayali explain what is going on?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Aug 2018 22:36

The Sultan's claimed 700 crore to the CM, also deflected from the legitimate, hard-earned contributions that real aam Gelf desis DID make. Does anyone have a measure of this? I mean outside of helping their own families? I bet it runs into the hundreds of millions of $$. The most affected places are the heartland of Gelf workers' homes. Just Onam trip cancellations must run into hundreds of millions in losses.

Is there a shortage of lampposts in HolyEndlessCity, hain?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Aug 2018 22:38

nvishal: Welcome to Malloostan Reality. V r like that onlee. After all these, millions will go to the polls and vote for the Left Kleptocratic Front- Of TheAssholes4OrganizedCrime.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby nvishal » 23 Aug 2018 23:06

I categorize it as fanatically socialist. Kerala dwarfs TNs freebie phenomenon. I quietly hope it is the work of the vocal minority. If it is, vijayan will be out next elections. I don't think bjp can ever come to power in Kerala, unless someone changes the demography.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby rhytha » 23 Aug 2018 23:22

nvishal wrote:The behaviour shown by Kerala in the last 7 days is truly psychotic. Even general public on social media appears disturbed.

Honestly, never seen anything like it in the past(Assam, uttaranchal, andhra cyclone, chennai floods etc). Even kodagu karnataka is normal. Can some malayali explain what is going on?


Kerala does not face much of back breaking natural disasters, a cyclone here or there, a minor flood which usually get handled OK by Gokl.

This time it was severe and they are staring at rebuilding infrastructure in many areas for which they need assistance.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 23 Aug 2018 23:40

People who have more also lose more in disasters
Hence the cries of entitlement like muricans do

A poor assamese farmer living in mud and straw hut will not be demanding lavish freebies because his living std was lower to begin with

Add in vocal sikulars and anti namo tirades in social media

People are acting like uae sheikhs will be handing out bundles of notes in everyone

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 23 Aug 2018 23:45

I think people this time around were truly scared of this iteration of floods. A lot of people instead of leaving for relief camps decided to stay put in the first floors of their homes. Reasons may vary from presence of old parents or domestic animals or fear of looting. And it was not for a day or two but for weeks together.

When it rains heavily in kerala during south west monsoon, water level rises gradually and dips really fast as soon as rains get over. The rain water just pooled here and there harmlessly and went away as soon as it came. This time around it was very different, as there was/is tremendous flow to the water and at first it seemed to be dam water creating strong currents in flood but dam water ebbing has not stopped these strong currents in certain areas which are still under water.

Secondly many rivers in Kerala channel water to sea through certain backwater lakes. These lakes can absorb tremendous quantities of water and throw them out to sea. This time around these lakes got swollen for some reason and started exerting reverse pressure on the river. So much so that in some places, rivers which normally drain out to sea from east to west got choked up and started expanding southwards instead.

Also the water this time around is still staying put in many places in aleppey, kumarakom etc even after 5 days of straight sunlight. A phenomenon hitherto unheard and unseen by the state peoples. Usually a bit of sunlight is enough to send any pool of water scurrying towards seas or lakes and tinier quantities get evaporated. Not so this time.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Aug 2018 23:54

Not 2 mention, I bet they don't have insurance, or if they do, they don't have flood insurance. No sane reason to. Ppl talk about "1924" etc, but AFAIK, the only real HUGE flood in Dera3shivnaam was circa 1899/1901, and it was due to a CYCLONE: all roof tiles in the cave that I know have same date, and the cave is a lot older than that.
The talk about 1924 100-year flood is just to say that ppl built homes in 100-year-flood plain, and it was all due to distributed rainfall: that is really not the problem (OK, jury is still out until Dileep's Ultimate Simulation delivers the verdict). It was the inland tsunami due to the CM's stupidity or worse. "8 inches of muddy water in my home" from someone who lives in a PRETTY high elevation home in an ancient neighborhood! There was rain-induced flooding before that, but it all disappeared as quickly as it rose.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 23 Aug 2018 23:55

Singha wrote:People who have more also lose more in disasters
Hence the cries of entitlement like muricans do

A poor assamese farmer living in mud and straw hut will not be demanding lavish freebies because his living std was lower to begin with

Add in vocal sikulars and anti namo tirades in social media

People are acting like uae sheikhs will be handing out bundles of notes in everyone


This time around the flood hit some pockets of privileged also. These places do not have a history of floods. Like people forgot last time chalakudy, wayanad, chengannur, ranni, aluva, malappuram, vaikom got flooded and when even the usual flood victims like alappuzha, ernakulam got flooded so comprehensively.

Many people who are literate and can use your whatsapp & facebook and instagram but are fiscally destitute have been affected. So this raises noise but it doesn't mean they are financially empowered.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby A_Gupta » 23 Aug 2018 23:56

vinod wrote:This is getting interesting.. there was NEVER a $100 million or ( Rs.700 crores) money offer from UAE. Did CM lie or get misled???

Anyway, one thing it did effectively was divert the attention away from dam water mismanagement and unscientific release of water without any warning.


I thought that PM Modi tweeted his appreciation of the gesture. So he was misled about this offer?
e.g., https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status ... 4186788864

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 24 Aug 2018 00:06

vinod wrote:Anyway, one thing it did effectively was divert the attention away from dam water mismanagement and unscientific release of water without any warning.


Regarding dam water release or late release. As we all know kerala is a bankrupt state. Only way they can make some money is through water/electricity trade and activities surrounding it. Now each foot of dam water means millions of units of electricity to trade on national grid to fund a cash starved state exchequer. So they have tendency to store water because for last 2 decades or so the state has rarely received surplus rainfall esp in dam catchment areas so tendency is towards maximising storage, you can say dam management was partly complacent and partly victim of higher storage temptations.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2018 00:15

habal, Stagnant water leads to malaria from mosquitoes breeding.

It also implies the normal drainage channels are clogged or insufficient.

Some one had posted the rainfall amount it was 1.5 times the normal rainfall. The dams were close to 90% full when the extra water was dumped. There was no regular release f waters to ensure safe margin in the dams. Historical records show Kerala handled higher than this amount of rainfall in earlier decades going back to 1920s.

The flood situation was aggravated by the water stored in dams being released suddenly, simultaneously without due warning as set in the procedures. Local district administration Collector and SP were not informed. Some reports say WhatsApp was used to spread the information that the waters are being released. Is this standard communications to use?

There is a need to find out how the waters got released like that as it multiplied the disaster. And this was not even a black swan which implies 9 to 10 standard deviations.

So need some inquiry to find out what policy changes are need to prevent future occurrence for it will repeat as its only 1.5 times normal rainfall.

The good thing is the death toll is under 350 and not like earlier events.


I have done many root cause analysis and find that when policies and procedures are followed rigidly without any chance for human decision making, when those who form the rules are far away from the problem (Politicians and Supreme Court), when there is divided responsibility like TN runs the dam in Kerala, when penalty for independent action is severe, this type of accidents are normal.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2018 00:18

habal, How often Kerala receives rainfall at this time of the year from the South West monsoon? And how much money was being earned by KSEB in selling the power to national grid?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 24 Aug 2018 00:26

Singha wrote:People are acting like uae sheikhs will be handing out bundles of notes in everyone


marriages of gelf-based nri's in kerala are often attended by uae sheikhs or some other sheikh. And these can be hindu marriage, muslim nikah or xtian wedding, these sheikhs land up in rented X5, 7 series or GL550 with their family and hand out expensive gifts like dior watches, cartier jewellery, chanel perfumes to friends and family of nri in open view of everyone.

So people of kerala can have such an impression that sheikhs may hand over cash in bundles to them.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Aug 2018 00:27

What is the root of the policy that Manmohan Singh set in 2004 after the tsunami that no foreign assistance from sovereign governments will be accepted? This policy was followed by the UPA government for the Uttarakhand floods of 2013.

One can pose the current question in two ways -
1. What is the necessity for the continuity of policy? Why should the NDA government continue with this UPA policy?
2. What is the necessity of breaking this longstanding policy for this particular disaster? If NDA government agrees with the UPA-instituted policy, then it really must be in the national interest.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 24 Aug 2018 00:29

ramana wrote:habal, How often Kerala receives rainfall at this time of the year from the South West monsoon? And how much money was being earned by KSEB in selling the power to national grid?


how often will be about 2-3 days of rain and then a lull and then some more. This time around the rains lasted for a week and half. So you can see a week of continuous rain is the break even point. And anything more will imply floods.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2018 00:48

TOI update.

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/clean- ... ssion=true

Please post relevant text as am.on phone.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2018 00:53

Arun, The UAE aid is a drop in the bucket. 700 crore vs 20000 crores needed.

And immediate needs center will provide. This is a successful diversion stick to beat Center with. Also, we can't say India is in top 3 PPP GDP countries and demand aid from abroad.
Relief will be in Rupees only.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 02:11

From TOI link above:
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) government was also drawn into another controversy after the opposition Congress-led UDF and BJP alleged that opening of shutters of 44-odd dams without any precaution and warning was the reason for the massive floods the state witnessed.
However, Vijayan rejected the charges and said the floods and landslides were due to non-seasonal heavy rains experienced by the state from August 8, and not due to the opening of shutters of dams.


Rahulji has decided to get the beatings from the commies. :mrgreen: GONGI would have opened the dams in sequence depending on who paid the highest baksheesh.

20,000 cr is still only $3B. I think still huge underestimate. Factor of 17?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby disha » 24 Aug 2018 02:33

A_Gupta wrote:This policy was followed by the UPA government for the Uttarakhand floods of 2013.

One can pose the current question in two ways -
1. What is the necessity for the continuity of policy? Why should the NDA government continue with this UPA policy?
2. What is the necessity of breaking this longstanding policy for this particular disaster? If NDA government agrees with the UPA-instituted policy, then it really must be in the national interest.


Ran into a Malloo, educated and all that. A dangerous narrative is being created:

1. Moodi must rezign, since Moodi being Hindu is not giving enough aid to Keral and also stopping outside aid. Particularly from UAE.
2. Not enough is being done for Keral
3. Moodi must rezign.

A_Gupta'ji., please think through the questions. Today UAE is offering aid to Keral. Tomorrow a disaster strikes in Kutch or Mah., will UAE offer aid? If no, why not? If GOI takes aid from UAE, why cannot it take from Thailand (they also offered aid) or S.Lanka or Burma or US or fUK or Japan?

Does a developed country ask for aid? Did Japan ask for aid during the fukushima disaster or for 2011 Tohuku earthquake where 15000 people died? It was one of the costliest natural disaster in history.

Also this calamity was man made. So can GOI say "yes we will take aid from UAE for our own screw up, but will not take aid from Thailand". That is silly.

If GOI did not take aid in past, why change it now? 20000 Cr. is actually chump change for GOI, so why should it take aid and come under UAE's influence? Those sheikhs will rub it in at all times and all the time. This are the same dolts who bolted during Surat plague. What changed now? India is still the same and where it used to be.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 24 Aug 2018 02:46

data points so far:
- In mid-July, all dams were 90 per cent full.
- For the first time in Kerala during the south-west monsoon, all the 40-odd rivers were in spate. Reservoirs were filled to the brim and shutters of 80 dams were opened to release water.
- In one of the worst floods witnessed in the last century in Kerala, 231 lives were lost and nearly 14.50 lakh people are still in about 3,879 relief camps
after a murderous monsoon rampaged through the state in its second spell that began on August 8.
- more than half of Kerala’s dams (57%) are hydroelectric projects operated by the Kerala State Electricity Board. The rest are operated by the irrigation department. For both entities, the amount of water stored is motivated by demand for electricity and irrigation, rather than flood-control measures.
- Unchecked quarrying and construction in ecologically weaker areas contributed to the damage - Madhav Gadgil
- Chennithala attacked officials of the Kerala State Electricity Board for trying to reap maximum profit by generating more power, even as the situation was getting out of hand. In mid-July, all dams were 90% full. KSEB and the government ignored the warnings - M Gadgil.
- The Aliyar dam in Upper Sholayar was opened by Tamil Nadu without warning, thus flooding many parts of Thrissur and Chalakudy, while there are charges that no red alert was sounded before the dams of the Sabarigiri scheme were opened, resulting in severe flooding.
-

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/VwQrM ... erala.html
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 501677.cms


====
Commie theory:
====
“Between 1st and 19th of August, Kerala received 788.6mm rains compared to the average 287.5mm. In Idukki alone there was a 617% increase in rains. Chennithala has compared the annual rainfall over the year in 1924 to the season’s monsoon in 2018, how is that a fair comparison? Plus in 1924, Kerala had only one dam. In 2018, we have 82 dams, including 44 major ones. Chennithala himself has written in his previous Facebook posts on the adequate warnings given when each of these dams were opened,” CM P Vijayan.

---> blames it on too many dams to handle! wow! pure leftie brain here.

somebody needs to decipher this argument is valid:

“Before 8 August, we received only 13.8mm. On 8 August, rains increased to 128.6mm. It continued on 8th and 9th and by 16th it increased to 295 mm. This is one-third of Kerala’s average rainfall, within four days,”

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby sum » 24 Aug 2018 03:51

nvishal wrote:The behaviour shown by Kerala in the last 7 days is truly psychotic. Even general public on social media appears disturbed.

Honestly, never seen anything like it in the past(Assam, uttaranchal, andhra cyclone, chennai floods etc). Even kodagu karnataka is normal. Can some malayali explain what is going on?

Agree on this.

Even sane mallu friends are only finding time to post how Kerala deserves xyz, how evil central govt is etc instead of anything useful abt flood situation or abt efforts of state govt

In contrast, equally hard hit Coorgi friends are stoic and just in mode of how to get back on feet

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 06:09

While there was very heavy rain in some hill areas (Wynad), the story of monster rains all over, may not hold water. Overall the rain was only some 20% or so above normal, and that abnormality came early too, so that, yes, reservoirs were nearly full by end of July. If heavy rains were then predicted (and predictions were there), the lazy oafs should have started releasing water fast. They did not.

The daily rain / hourly rain is not a meaningful metric. We can check whether the flooding in cities was due to just heavy local rain, or how much was due to idiots opening dams. I don't know the answer for sure, but I know to 90% certainty that it was **NOT** local rain that did it. Heavy rain came in June, and it was after the ground had already been well-soaked. So Trissur for instance may have seen 1-foot floods due to the heavy downpour of August, but there is no explanation for fast-flowing, relatively clean top-level water rising in 4 hours from 1 foot to 5 feet, which is what did all the damage. But let's see... A few voices are beginning to take up the question, and as others find time and electricity and transport, they are also going to start asking.

As for Sholayar flooding Trissur, others are blaming Peechi which is the local reservoir, a LOT closer than Sholayar etc.
My bet knowing how the Top-Down Decision system works in Malloostan is that the CM and his goons were "out to lunch" and ignored all calls for decisions for the past 2 weeks. The Dam Mananagers of PeeDubyaDee and KayEssEeeBee stood around like Boy Standing On Burning Deck with their thumbs up their brains and their WhatsApp phones stuck between their ears.

Then the Commies finally Convened at Marxist Party HQ after dinner and burped The Order at 9:50PM:

OBEN SESAME! open all 80 dams full. Don't let dams break onlee! Drown the Bourgeouis Running Dogs of Capitalism!


Reminds me of the book "CONGO" by Michael Crichton. A fine and gentle civilization builds a nice city. A bunch of vicious apes takes it over. Apologies to gorillas and chimpanzees: those are very gentle and intelligent creatures, no relation to Marxist Party hacks ruling Malloostan,

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2018 06:21


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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 24 Aug 2018 06:42

The rice field kumarakom areas on eastern shore of vembanad lake seem to be below water level of the canals and small rivers there. Even in a non flood year in october the water was 6 feet above some fields

So accumulation will be there for some time

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2018 06:59

UB Sir, it was not the LOCAL RAINS. It was the RAINS in the HILLS. I didn't save the data, but there was unprecedented rain in the hills, which is STILL DRAINING at 200 Cumecs from Idukki, after one whole week after rains stopped.

Last week this time, Idukki was draining (officially) 2000 Cumecs, and the dam level was RAISING.

Muvattupuzha and Meenachil don't have much dams. They too flooded precisely the same time.

So, using 20/20 hindsight, you could say that the damn dam operators should have drained Idukki by 30 feet by 14th Aug (and other dams similarly), and received all the water.

Of course, if the rains had not come, we would have had power cut (ohwait! now that the north-south grid is up, we could get power from Bihar etc, so no power cut).

IMD had predicted rain, but Kanipayyoor had predicted no rain. In my experience, the latter used to be more accurate.

Seriously... IMD's warnings have gone damp squib multiple times. Accuweather gives better prediction here, as I observe.

To summarize:
1. The root cause of the floods is the heavy rain in the HILLS. The only solution for the Periyar basin was to drain the dams in anticipation of the rains, which is not logical to expect from the system. Muvattupuzha, Meenachil, 3ShivName etc would have flooded nevertheless.
2. Dams opening in the night was the fault of the operating manual (which was written at an era when instant communication was NOT available to the dam site.)
3. If they had waited till morning, the flood would have been the same. Would a dam have collapsed? Maybe not. they are not built with that poor a margin. But given it is Kerala, and looking at all the Public Works, maybe they ARE. Who knows!!

So, what do I propose?
1. The "Great Simulator" ;)
2. Revise the operating manual of dams to include lines like "Add two feet to the trigger value if it is night", "Call collector and inform. Keep a recording of the call as evidence" etc.. etc...
3. Kick out evil TN babus from managing the dams in KL.
4. Personally: Maybe buy a place at and move to Nilampathinjamukal ;) and have a cellar with doomsday prep for a month.

UlanBatori
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 08:03

Thx. Let's see if we can capture that in sim. Is it possible to get records of the rain in the hills (not from CPIM HQ or PeeDubyaDee Dept. of CoverUp)? True that the inflow to dams may have looked very scary if it was that abnormal. They need some simulation nevertheless to spread the release over several hours, starting earlier - doesn't that come from a bit of experience anyway? Rain sensors in the hills maybe?
Isn't it logical that if A, B, C and D up in the hills (watershed for Dam F) all are getting socked with heavy rain, there is going to be fast-rising water in rejerboir F which is already at 90 percent, say 2 hrs later? Get a head start and release when these reports come (safe to expect that dam wont be empty next morning?)
Even a WhatsApp group that calls in from A, B, C and D saying: "Allo!!!! Raining cats, dogs and pakistanis here for past 30 mins!" should be enough, hain?
IMO with 100 years experience, this level of foresight is not unreasonable to expect of dam operators. You or I may not have the experience, but we are not paid to be dam operators. They are supposed to have the basic ability to look out over the reservoir, see the level, and use the "leettil gray cells" to reason that heavy rain in the hills under these circumstances means dam will overflow by morning. So any reasonable dam operator must have it drilled into them that if the level is high by July, one has to be watchful, look at the hills, and start releasing at very short notice.
If they didn't do that, it is still criminal negligence. The excuse given, is like an incompetent hospital giving excuses on why a patient died and covering up basic failure to give help in time.
OK, she bled to death. How were WE to know that losing this much blood would lead to death? We started transfusion as SOON as her heart stopped beating and the cardiogram trace became flat!

The idea is to do the draining through the rivers, rather than through ppl's homes, as far as possible. An experienced dam operator must have some idea of what level of opening will do what to the ppl downstream.
Even then I do have my problems believing that this was all that happened, that it was not due to loooong delays in Chain Of Command (which no baboon will admit, given the nature of the guvrmand).
Was looking at reports of Cat 4 hurricane approaching Hawaii. They have got some 28 inches of rain inside a day or 2 and sea state is not encouraging so beaches are also flooded to maybe 1 foot, not much more. I don't think they have dams to open, though, so not sure what I can learn.

UlanBatori
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 08:26

The other bright idea to adopt is shown here: post-tsunami pic from Solomon Islands. Look at the houses still standing: they are built on frames that are on tall poles.


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