Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

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Dileep
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2018 08:42

>>IMO with 100 years experience, this level of foresight is not unreasonable to expect of dam operators.

Sir, that is actually too much to expect from the poor executive injineer, who joined KSEB because even Ambadan Softech Training Institute wouldn't hire him for ITVty, and got transferred to the remote dam location since he wasn't smart enough to deal with the members of the linemen association (CITU) in the civilized world. Government, have no institutional memory, other than what is codified in the manuals.

So, the only solution is to update the manuals.

I hope the simulation can tell exactly how much Cumecs can be released from each dam, so that the waterfront properties get a nice coat of natural terracotta paint, but things beyond are left alone. And more importantly, it gets into the manuals.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 08:49

What should output be? And how to convert to graphics, interactive or otherwise? e-pata.
Best way to make progress IMO is FORTRAN for me. Clunky but functional. Perhaps some expert can translate that to other things.
BTW, had a discussion todin, and the equation is now modified to include the ground absorption rate (6 inches of rain in a day in late May won't cause flood, but same in late July will). Some ideas on this, c e-pata pls.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 24 Aug 2018 09:32

ramana wrote:https://twitter.com/prasannavishy/status/1032643469569925120?s=19

The earlier issue was to lower the dam level, so that more water flows into KL.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 24 Aug 2018 09:42

UlanBatori wrote:
OBEN SESAME! open all 80 dams full. Don't let dams break onlee! Drown the Bourgeouis Running Dogs of Capitalism!


Reminds me of the book "CONGO" by Michael Crichton. A fine and gentle civilization builds a nice city. A bunch of vicious apes takes it over. Apologies to gorillas and chimpanzees: those are very gentle and intelligent creatures, no relation to Marxist Party hacks ruling Malloostan,

:rotfl: LOL Salam!

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby chetak » 24 Aug 2018 11:22


D A @diwakaran_a 9h
Replying to @surnell @narendramodi

Just wondering if all these drama of RS 700 Cr AID from UAE & Blaming GOI for all & Sundry was to divert the attention from the #inaction by GoK ?

Had they acted in time & responsibly, wouldn't this Man Made Floods (have) been avoided ?


Prasanna Viswanathan @prasannavishy

Cock and Bull story of Rs.700 crore aid from UAE for Kerala flood relief. Who fooled Kerala CM? Who played mischief? Without a written offer, how can a Chief Minister fall for such hearsays? https://www.pgurus.com/cock-and-bull-st ... -mischief/ … via @PGurus1



Kerala floods: UAE says nothing official yet, no amount of financial aid announced



With his country at the centre of a debate in India over acceptance of Rs 700 crore foreign aid for flood-ravaged Kerala — that debate is now a political slugfest between the Left that runs Kerala and the BJP which leads the government at the Centre — UAE Ambassador Ahmed Albanna told The Indian Express Thursday that there has been no official announcement so far by the UAE on any specific amount as financial aid.

“The assessment of relief needed for the flood and aftermath is ongoing. Announcing any specific amount as financial aid, I don’t think it is final, since it is still ongoing,” Albanna said.

Asked if he meant that the UAE had not announced Rs 700 crore in aid, he said: “Yes, that is correct. It is not yet final. It has not been announced.”

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Javee » 24 Aug 2018 11:24


The KSEB is accused of failing to maintain safe levels in its reservoirs by releasing water at the right time by properly analysing and understanding weather forecasts so that it could have avoided the situation of opening the shutters of all major dams – 37 of them – at the same time after all of them were filled to or beyond capacity, which enhanced the magnitude of the disaster.

The board is also charged with failing to issue proper notice and alerts to the people well advance while opening the dams as a result of which they did not get time to move to safety leading to the loss of several lives. This had also led to heavy loss of livestock, essential items, household implements, important documents and certificates.

Several panchayats in Wayanad district, Aluva, Paravur, Kaladi and many other regions in Ernakulam, Ranni, Kozhenchery and Pamba in Pathanamthitta, Chengannur and Kuttanad in Alappuzha and all the villages and towns on the banks and the basin of the Chalakkudy river in Thrissur district were hit by floods triggered by the water released from major dams.

It is said that the KSEB had opened the big dams like Cheruthoni in the giant three-dam Idukki hydel reservoir system, Idamalayar dam, the eight dams of the Sabarigiri hydel project in Pathanamthitta district, Sholayar and Peringalkuthu dams in Thrissur district and the Banasurasagar in Wayanad district without taking precautions or informing the people.

The Wayanad District Collector, chairman of the district Disaster Management Authority, had complained that he was not informed of the opening of the Banasurasagar dam. Even a CPI(M) MLA, Raju Abraham of Ranni, complained, “I had asked them to open the Sabarigiri project’s dams only after issuing proper warning. They did not take it seriously.”


The biggest alleged callousness of the KSEB and Dam Safety Authority was seen in the case of the Idukki dam with a maximum storage level of 2,403 feet. When the level touched 2,396 feet as back as on July 31, the plan was to open the shutters at 2,398 feet. But the board delayed the process till August 9 by which time things had allegedly got out of control.


When newsmen asked Power Minister MM Mani, a native of Idukki, about the situation on July 9, minutes before opening the Idukki shutters for what the KSEB said was a trial run, his response was, “Should the dam be opened just for giving you stuff for news? If we release water, you would criticize us for not keeping water for producing power in the summer.”

Demanding a judicial inquiry into the whole issue, Ramesh Chennithala said, “The KSEB should have known about the situation. The Power Minister is responsible. The Chief Minister should have known about it. Those responsible for this man-made disaster should be identified and prosecuted,” he said.

While State Chief Secretary Tom Jose admitted that there was a communication gap in relation to the opening of the Banasurasagar dam, KSEB chairman NS Pillai rejected the charges. In what is being seen as an affront at the flood victims, he said, “If we had the capacity to predict floods, we would have saved all the people.”

Claiming that there had not been any lapse in abiding to the Water Management Protocol, he said, “Proper warnings and the three-stage alerts were issued before opening the dams. I have with me the records proving that the dams were not opened in one go but it was done stage by stage and that we had completed all the required preparations before opening the dams”


https://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/ker ... aster.html

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Javee » 24 Aug 2018 11:48

For folks complaining that TN opened the dams in Parambikulam Aliyar Project (PAP), the truth is that it is governed by Joint Water Regulatory Development Board (JWRDB) which has representatives from both TN and KL. Most of the dams in this system was full or near full for the last 2 months.

This JWRDB is responsible for setting up operational procedures of the dam which will be executed by the Revenue officials (For TN controlled dams) and the Collector (KL side). KL has always demanded the dams in PAP system to be maintained at FRL so that they could use the water during summer. There has been protracted accusations between both sides but not an acrimonious fight.
https://india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/wrpinfo/ ... ct_JI02563

Sholyar and Aliyar dam storage was close to FRL in Jul 3 and July 18 respectively. The whole system is jointly monitored by the JWRDB.
After three years, the Sholayar Dam in Pollachi reached its full level around 3 a.m. on Sunday July 2, thanks to active south-west monsoon in Kerala, an official attached to Water Resources Organisation of the Public Works Department said.
The overflowing Sholayar reservoir in the PAP and copious inflows into the Aliyar will bring cheer to farmers who rely on the projects to irrigate more than four lakh acres. The storage and the inflow may first benefit the farmers irrigating one lakh acres in the fourth zone who are due to get the water soon.
According to officials, the surplus water has started flowing though the saddle sluice to the Parambikulam reservoir. The inflow into Sholayar on Sunday was 1,811 cusecs and the discharge was maintained at 1,044 cusecs.


https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/t ... 307495.ece

Aliyar Dam, part of the Parambikulam Azhiyar Project in Pollachi, was inching closer to the full reservoir level with a storage of 118 feet as against its FRL of 120 feet on Saturday midnight July 19, resulting in releasing surplus water to Kerala, sources here said.
The dam filled up after nearly two years, thanks to the bountiful South-West Monsoon and resultant copious inflow into the catchment areas in western ghats since last month.
The water level that stood at 65 ft in June, rose to 116 feet on Saturday and further increased to 118 feet around midnight. Immediately after the water level touched 116 feet, Revenue Department has issued warning to those living on the banks of Azhiyar river.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Co ... 489778.ece
https://english.manoramaonline.com/news ... erala.html

KL gave the following operational plan to the other dams in the region,
Sudheer Padikkal, deputy director of the Joint Water Regulatory Development Board (JWRDB), who represents Kerala in the inter-state river sharing talks with Tamil Nadu, spoke to New Indian Express: “As per the operation plan, Kerala had asked Tamil Nadu to maintain the water level in the Parambikulam dam at 1,824.5 feet and in the Tamil Nadu Sholayar dam at 3,293.3 feet to ensure a controlled release of water into the Kerala Sholayar and Poringalkuthu reservoirs located downstream, which were already full. The Full Reservoir Level of the Parambikulam dam was 1,825 feet. As the inflow to Parambikulam and Tamil Nadu Sholayar dams increased, the water was released into the Poringalkuthu reservoir and on to the Chalakudy river.”

Subsequently, he said, 35,000 cusecs of water was released from the Parambikulam dam and 30,000 cusecs from the TN Sholayar dam which flowed into the Chalakudy river.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 58821.html

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 24 Aug 2018 12:48

The board is also charged with failing to issue proper notice and alerts to the people well advance while opening the dams as a result of which they did not get time to move to safety leading to the loss of several lives
.

this is debatable:

banasura sagar dam: this is the only dam which justifiably comes in this category of being opened all of a sudden, maybe because it is build of compacted earth or some ancient technology cannot withstand spillover. It was opened by kerala pwd without much advance notice. This caused flooding in wayanad.

idukki dam/idamalayar: the release from these dams were controlled and only during day time until MP opened around midnight. Flooded chalakudy, paravoor, ernakulam, aluva. TN mischief and complicity lies in fact that it flooded abruptly an already brimming and slightly flooded downstream.

peringalkuthu/sholayar: release abruptly into idamalayar and flooded chalakudy, thrissur. Again sholayar managed by TN.

kakki dam: opened during day time, flooded alappuzha dist.

malampuzha dam: opened at noon, flooded palakkad, nilambur and some areas of malappuram shortly thereafter.

malankara dam: opened and flooded parts of thodupuzha, pala.

pamba/moozhiyar/maniyar: opened and flooded sabarimala, chengannur, ranni, pandalam, alappuzha.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2018 13:42

The Joint Whatnot Committee was there for Mullaperiyar also. TN simply ignore whatever and do what they please with the dams they control.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Aug 2018 13:54

Ouch.
https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes. ... behaviour/
How Kerala damaged its reputation and national conversation around calamities with petulant behaviour

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Javee » 24 Aug 2018 13:59

habal wrote:idukki dam/idamalayar: the release from these dams were controlled and only during day time until MP opened around midnight. Flooded chalakudy, paravoor, ernakulam, aluva. TN mischief and complicity lies in fact that it flooded abruptly an already brimming and slightly flooded downstream.

TN has been informing KL side the moment water hit 136ft in MP which was Aug 14 2:00 AM. TN officials also were updating KL officials when it reached 139 ft at 9:00 PM. After excessive inflows (25000 cusecs), the dam was opened at 2:30 AM because they did not want to store water beyond 142 ft. Part of the problem was KL till today has refused to share the quantum of rain in the mullai periyar dam catchment area. The only way for TN to know is by looking at the water levels in the dam itself. Also, to this day, KL has refused electricity connection to the dam, inspite of TN depositing 1.03 crores to KSEB.

The water level in the reservoir crossed the 136 ft mark at 4 a.m. on Tuesday prompting the district administration to sound the first alert for people living in the downstream areas. If the water level breaches the maximum level of 142 ft, water will be discharged into the Periyar on the upstream of Idukki reservoir. The water level reached 136 ft at 4 a.m. from 135.40 ft at 2 p.m. on Monday. The water level kept rising through the morning and stood at 136.40 ft. at 10 am. The upstream forest area of the dam has been receiving heavy rainfall since last night.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 686352.ece

An orange alert has been sounded at the Mullaperiyar dam, the penultimate step to opening the sluice gates to drain the excess water from the reservoir. The dam, located on the Periyar river in Kerala, is operated and maintained by the Tamil Nadu government. The state relief commissioner of TN has indicated that the sluice gates would be opened due to heavy inflow of water in the reservoir.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... riyar-dam/

Here is the whole story,
August 14, 2018
4:00 am
The water level in the reservoir crossed the 136 ft mark at 4 a.m. on Tuesday prompting the district administration to sound the first alert for people living in the downstream areas.

7:25 pm
The crisis management team has decided to evacuate people living near the Mullaperiyar reservoir as the water level reached 137.50 ft at 5 pm on Tuesday. "[If this] rate of inflow continues, the reservoir may reach its Full capacity within 26 to 27 hours. Crisis management decided to start evacuation of people as spill of the reservoir is imminent," James Wilson, Special Officer, interstate water, Kerala, tweeted.

9:00 pm
Tamil Nadu Public Works Department has issued second warning on Mullaperiyar dam as water level at 8:30 pm is recorded at 138 ft.

10:30 pm
Water release from Idukki will be increased from 600 cumecs to 750 cumecs.

11 pm
Water release from Idamalayar dam has been raised to 600 cumecs as the water level touched 169.10 ft against full level of 169 ft. The dam filled up at about 9 pm.

August 15, 2018
12:10 am, Mullaperiyar water level has crossed the 139-ft mark and the dam's shutters are likely to be opened. Meanwhile, the catchment area of Idukki dam is witnessing very heavy rainfall at the moment.

1 am
“The Idukki District Collector has informed that the area around the Mullaperiyar dam has been evacuated in connection with the opening of the dam. People should not panic,” tweets Kerala Power Minister M.M. Mani.

2 am
‘People in Periyar's banks must be cautious’
@CMOKerala tweets: “People in the villages of Manjumala, Kumily, Periyar, Upputhura and Ayyapankovil have been relocated. People living on the banks of Periyar must be cautious (in view of the decision to release water from the Mullaperiyar dam).”

2:30am
Water level at Mullaperiyar reached 140 ft overnight. The shutters were opened at around 2:30 a.m.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 686486.ece

peringalkuthu/sholayar: release abruptly into idamalayar and flooded chalakudy, thrissur. Again sholayar managed by TN.

I have posted information about the Sholyar, read up.
Last edited by Javee on 24 Aug 2018 14:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Javee » 24 Aug 2018 14:00

Dileep wrote:The Joint Whatnot Committee was there for Mullaperiyar also. TN simply ignore whatever and do what they please with the dams they control.

MP is governed based on SC laid regulations.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2018 15:15

^^Sure. On paper.

SC ordered 142ft, so it is 142ft onlee. That is what the TN CM said. TN haven't ever shared the dam operating manual to KL, despite many requests and order my the monitoring committee.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 24 Aug 2018 15:31

they chase away anyone from kerala even seen loitering around dam premises, on dams controlled by TN. On paper everything is supposed to be very different and equinamous with SC extending a 'benevolent eye' on proceedings. Never happens in practice though.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Javee » 24 Aug 2018 15:33

saar, it's he says she says onlee now. I'm sure TN is at fault for some of these, but KL is no saint either. KL doesn't share rain data, regularly harasses engineers and workers by sending in party thugs, not letting in construction and maintenance crew and their materials and so on. If this dam is such a "safety" issue, would you risk doing this? I mean, power supply is a basic thing for dam ops and TN is behind KL for the last 2+ years for restoring electricity to the dam and its surroundings. There is even a petition on the SC asking for CISF protection for the dam. There are so many instances where party workers loiter in the dam area, harassing engineers. Also, security to the dam is given by Kerala Police, TN just have PWD officials there.

Without mincing words, it accused the Kerala government of harassment by denying Tamil Nadu officials free entry to carry out routine periodical maintenance and repairs of the dam.

It said the Kerala police remainéd silent spectators as Tamil Nadu’s “exclusive peaceful and uninterrupted possession is being seriously and unlawfully affected”.

The application wants the Supreme Court to direct Kerala government to allow free access to Tamil Nadu officials to the dam and its appurtenant structures to collect data and change the weekly chart in the Mullakodi rainfall station.

It said the court should direct Kerala to allow Tamil Nadu to transport the machinery and materials required for carrying out repairs.


https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 096804.ece

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby jpremnath » 24 Aug 2018 16:53

Total Donations to CM DR fund crosses 500 cr.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/donations-to-kerala-cms-distress-relief-fund-crosses-rs-500-cr/article24768138.ece?homepage=true

Donations transacted have amounted to Rs 539 crore, of which Rs 142 crore were effected online through the banks and Unified Payments Interfaces (UPIs)


There is enough funds now to start the repair to infrastructure which needs immediate attention. The state govt should focus on action and not talk. Prove they can perform and then more will come.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby chetak » 24 Aug 2018 17:01

SG Suryah Verified account @SuryahSG

Kerala's ruling Communist Party repacks the relief materials donated from other states in new bags with CPM labels. Liberals, Pseduo-Seculars will maintain pindrop silence; because thats how ecosystem works! Cheerleaders like @NaveenFilmmaker & @sindhan will hide in rat-holes!



Image

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby jpremnath » 24 Aug 2018 17:06

They have been doing much worse...In changannur, there was this gorcery and vegetable show owner who came online complaining how CPM goons came and took his goods and money. And this is happening all across in smaller towns..

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 17:14

habal wrote:
The board is also charged with failing to issue proper notice and alerts to the people well advance while opening the dams as a result of which they did not get time to move to safety leading to the loss of several lives
.
this is debatable:
banasura sagar dam: this is the only dam which justifiably comes in this category of being opened all of a sudden, maybe because it is build of compacted earth or some ancient technology cannot withstand spillover. It was opened by kerala pwd without much advance notice. This caused flooding in wayanad.
idukki dam/idamalayar: the release from these dams were controlled and only during day time until MP opened around midnight. Flooded chalakudy, paravoor, ernakulam, aluva. TN mischief and complicity lies in fact that it flooded abruptly an already brimming and slightly flooded downstream.
peringalkuthu/sholayar: release abruptly into idamalayar and flooded chalakudy, thrissur. Again sholayar managed by TN.
kakki dam: opened during day time, flooded alappuzha dist.
malampuzha dam: opened at noon, flooded palakkad, nilambur and some areas of malappuram shortly thereafter.
malankara dam: opened and flooded parts of thodupuzha, pala.
pamba/moozhiyar/maniyar: opened and flooded sabarimala, chengannur, ranni, pandalam, alappuzha.

Looks like a case can be made, that TN baboon got mad at SC for "suggesting" that they release from MP, so instead they released equivalent from other dams all of a sudden. THEN they claimed that they were going to refuse to release from MP "in order to protect lives of ppl". Look into this: the trail is there in the news.

KSEB chief baboon says all records available that they informed as per prat-a-call and did not release all of a sudden, only 1 minute apart because in some places they had to wake up the local Dam Opener. :mrgreen: But he says nothing about what his dear co-baboon in TN did.

Also there is the report: They were asked to release when the level reached X, headed for y. BUT IT WAS DELAYED UNTIL AUG 9 when it became "TINAO" (there eej no alternative onlee)

Now I am beginning to see why in yoo ess, all dams are controlled by Army Corps of Engineers: so that court-martial threat is there and interstate lovefests don't kill people.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Javee » 24 Aug 2018 17:26

Dileep chetta,
Here is more data from the TN affidavit that was filed in response to the KL affidavit,

https://barandbench.com/wp-content/uplo ... eriyar.pdf

I'm just posting excerpts, rest in the above link,

I state that the water level in the Idukki Dam on 14.08.2018 was 731.08 m (2399 ft.) against the FRL 732.43 m (2403 ft.) and the quantity spilled was 46.26 Mm3 (1.634 TMC). But on 15.08.2018 the level was 731.868 m (2401 ft.) and the quantity spilled was 390.51 Mm3 (13.791 TMC), which is evident from data available in the website of KSEB. Thus it can be seen that State of Kerala suddenly increased the releases from 46.26 Mm3 on 14.08.2018 to 390.51 Mm3 on 15.08.2018. Similarly, the release of water from Idamalaiyar dam, which flows into the lower part of Periyar river was 117.72 Mm3 on 16.08.2018 while the release from the dam was Nil on 14.08.2018 and 15.08.2018, and thus, the release was sudden.

The storage level in the Mullai Periyar Dam as on 01.06.2018 was 115.70 ft. and on 14.08.2018 at 8.00 A.M was only 136.1 ft. against the permitted storage level of 142 ft. The inflow was only 4419 cusecs with a diversion of 2200 cusecs through the tunnel to Tamil Nadu. On 15.08.2018, when the water level reached 140 ft., spilling of water to downstream of the dam commenced and the initial release was 4489 cusecs. This was gradually stepped up in the course of the day to 8905 cusecs and the average spilling was 14429 cusecs. On 15th morning the level rose to 140.7 ft. and the inflow was 16629 cusecs and the quantity spilled to Idukki Dam was only 14429 cusecs (1.247 TMC), whereas the outflow from Idukki Dam on the same day was 390.51 Mm3 or 13.79 TMC. On 16.8.2018, inflow into Mullai Periyar Dam was 25,730 cusecs and the quantity spilled to Idukki Dam was 23,397 cusecs i.e., 2.022 TMC and the outflow from Idukki Dam was 126.63 Mm3 (4.472 TMC). Similarly on 17th, 18th & 19th, Idukki Dam surplused 114.84 Mm3, 70.52 Mm3 & 59.4 Mm3 respectively. Thus, the total quantity spilled from Idukki Dam from 14th to 19th August 2018 is 808.16 Mm3 (28.54 TMC), and from Idamalaiyar dam in the corresponding period is 219 Mm3 (7.74 TMC) totaling to 1027.16 Mm3 (36.28 TMC), whereas the quantity released from Mullai Periyar Dam to Idukki Dam during the corresponding period is far less than the quantity surplused from Idukki and Idamalaiyar dams. Thus, it is seen that that flood surplus from the Idukki dam is mainly due to the flows generated from its own independent catchment due to unprecedented heavy rainfall while the contribution from Mullai Periyar Dam was significantly less.

..Keeping in view the rains in the catchment area of Mullai Periyar Dam, the flood warning for every raise of water level of 1 ft. was issued to the concerned officials in the State of Kerala. When the water level in the Mullai Periyar Dam reached 140 ft., water was allowed to spill through the spillway of the Dam after giving sufficient flood warning and was made in the presence of the Engineers of Kerala.

..The State of Tamil Nadu duly informed the counterpart of Kerala since the water level in the Dam reached +136 ft. Thereafter,when the water level reached +138 ft., +140 ft., +141 ft. & +142 ft., suitable warnings were issued and the quantum of discharge were also intimated

..Infact, the dam gates were opened when the reservoir level was at +140 ft. and thereafter the discharge was stepped in stages after giving sufficient warnings, in order to avoid flash floods. The initial surplus quantity at +140 ft. was 4489 cusecs and thereafter stepped upto 8905 cusecs, when the water level was 141 ft. and the spillway was regulated further considering the rate of inflows to avoid flash flows. In any event the quantity spilled from Mullai Periyar Dam is very small when compared to the quantity spilled by the 39 dams of Kerala. The flood warnings issued by officials of Tamil Nadu to officials of Kerala is annexed.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2018 21:35

^^Nice!! What a play of units!!
>>the initial release was 4489 cusecs. This was gradually stepped up in the course of the day to 8905 cusecs and the average spilling was 14429 cusecs.

What a madrassa math!! Initial was 4489, final was 8905and average was 14429.

>>On 15th morning the level rose to 140.7 ft. and the inflow was 16629 cusecs and the quantity spilled to Idukki Dam was only 14429 cusecs

14429 Cusecs = 408 Cumecs. (For scale, remember that the mini flood in periyar on 10th was due to 500 Cumecs). At the time, Iukki was discharging 1500Cumecs. So, practically one-third of the water was from MP.

>>outflow from Idukki Dam on the same day was 390.51 Mm3

I don't know from where this figure was pulled out! Assuming this is for 24 hours, this will correspond to 4520 Cumecs flow. What a effing deception is this?

>>On 16.8.2018, inflow into Mullai Periyar Dam was 25,730 cusecs and the quantity spilled to Idukki Dam was 23,397 cusecs

OMG!! That comes to 662 Cumecs!!!

Now the killer

>>The total quantity spilled from Idukki Dam from 14th to 19th August 2018 is 808.16 Mm3

So, you average the Idukki flow over the long period, and ignore the peak impulse of 662 Cumecs from MP. That is the basic cause for the flood. What TN did is to mass discharge the water and then reduce the flow. Idukki actually spread the impact, but even that was insufficient to control the flood. I wish the KL experts note this play and raise this in the SC, but that is too much to ask from them.

I should give it to the TN for this play of numbers.

I do not trust anything that TN says. I have seen enough lies and deceptions already. Let me add this also to the pile!

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 21:52

Dileep, u r against full-time, 100-year experts. Your error is trying to excuse them saying they have no experience, when it comes to looking at the black clouds against the mountains and failing to consider that water level is going to rise at the dam and everywhere else in 2 hrs.

They **ARE*** super-experienced when it comes to "not-lying". They give out a bunch of "figures" with units messed up. When someone says total flow was 230 cusecs, what does it mean? cusec is (per Wikipedia) Cubic Feet PER SECOND, so without saying "X cusecs for y seconds" there is no meaning to their statement. One can assume that it was until the next event, which may be 8 hours, or it may be 15 seconds. Deliberate clouding of facts. When that gets distorted through the super-diligent paragons of factual accuracy in the Indian Media, the result is complete gibberish.

*I started at only 3CUSECS and ended at only 3.6 CUSECS, and the average was 67CUSECS*. THAT maybe totally accurate: what they don't tell you is that in between, they released at the rate of 1343CUSECS for 10 minutes, which deluged everywhere.

Note that water is generally supposed to flow along rivers and other channels cut for the purpose. When the level exceeds the depth of the channel, the water flows outside the channel, and that is what is a "flood". The flood then finds its way into low-lying areas which are not so connected to the river. Once the flood waters get into your home, they don't just pour away because the river has gone down: they have no outlet.

Look at the ISRO(?) contour map tool that allows you to look at various levels and see the areas that would be flooded. Go to zero (sea-level). You will see that many areas even around Dera3shivNaam will flood.

So if you allow a HUGE pulse of flow to come down the river from the high-altitude dam, you make damn sure that huge flooding occurs.

Hang them all, hang them high.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby uskumar » 24 Aug 2018 21:57

Let court decide whether TN is correct or not. No point in passing judgement before that.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2018 22:18

Root cause is that cause by correcting will prevent the incident. All others are factors. Incident becomes a disaster when there is close coupling and overwhelms the system exponentially.
By this understanding the excess rainfall was a trigger not a root cause.
Root cause was the sudden release of waters which overwhelmed the system of dams and reservoirs.
The system of dams and reservoirs were at 95 % storage as the human operators had not managed the water levels for flood control. The emphasis was on water storage for power generation and irrigation.
Why was This? From a long time excess rainfall did not cause such devastation as the run off was drained to the sea. And constant political bickering between Kerala and TN with presstitute media blowing up the differences.

Charles Perrow in his book Normal Accidents says three factors are at play in such cases:
- Closely coupled system where a small change far downstream migrates to the front of the system where the accident is apparent. Kerala dam and reservoir system is quite close coupled system
- Long period of normal system behaviour. Past rains caused manageable floods.
- This long period of normal.syayem behaviour brings human factors into play. Especially complacency.
Add one more factor here. TN had control of water reservoir and dam in Kerala. They displayed total lack of accountability to Kerala where the dam was located.

I submit a three member inquiry should be ordered. One member from TN, Kerala, and Assam. Last one from far away staye which has familiarity with floods, hills, forest cover.

I think forum should contribute without emotion and hyperventilating.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Aug 2018 22:55

One other aspect is that they may have thought in good faith (I mean the dam operators, not the commies) thay they were trying to ***prevent*** a flood, when they should have been tasked with **MINIMIZING** the inevitable flood. The former is done by contributing NOTHING ("JUST SAY NO!" to requests to open a little) until "TINAO" where they HAD to open in panic. So for this they will blame poor forecasting, but looking at the rain in the hills should have been enough warning for them; it would have allowed 1 to hours of strong flow (yes, with some flooding) and eliminated the need for a shock opening. Root cause: Poor Dam Mangement at top of Chain of Command. (i.e., Hang them!) :mrgreen:

But listen: there is a 100-year history of this. I used to hear of stories on how someone was crossing the BharataPpuzha peacefully circa June, rocking casually in a bullock cart across the "manappuram" (sand beach) which was the whole river bed, and chewing their betel leaf pan.

As they got to the middle, there was a rumble as of approaching thunder; a strong breeze blew, and whammo!! A 10-foot WALL OF WATER slammed them and carried bullocks, cart and riders swiftly downstream in the torrent. I was told that this was the Effect Of Rain In the Mountains, but now I am pretty sure this is what happens due to a sudden and careless dam opening. No warning sireens in those dins, this is from waaay back. Dams were not even in ppl's consciousness: they attributed this to "Fate", not "Callous Idiocy Of Pompous Asses". I bet the Manuals have not been updated since either.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 25 Aug 2018 01:58

Poor guys singing praises of UAE sheikh for rumors of $100m

https://twitter.com/PartyVillage017/sta ... 37696?s=19

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 25 Aug 2018 06:45

Ramana, that was an excellent take!!

Here are some more lies, dam lies and statistics by Tamilistan:

1. KL doesn't share rain information: You know where this stems from? TN always try to put a toetip in the geography to define at least a square mm of catchment area of MP within TN, to claim that Periyar is an "interstate river onlee". Even here at BRF, during the last "MP War", this claim was made, and I had dug up a lot of information to debunk it. TN Forest dept or revenue dept tried to put border marker stones on KL side for this purpose. When the KL forest staff (the ones not in the payroll of TN) found this and objected, they claimed that these are not marker stones, but foundation for rain gauges. They were promptly kicked out and the markers uprooted.

The result: Periyar is still a non-interstate river, but TN kept on saying "no rain information onlee". I am not sure if there are rain gauges in the jungle. I am not sure if they are needed either.

2. KL Police and Party thugs harass TN officials:

Party Thugs :rofl: Poor guys think the party cadres here are like the MK parties of TN, where they draw blood upon hearing about MP (like beating up the poor bakery owners and KL registered vehicles when there is a protest in KL about MP). They have better things to do, like collecting 'nokku kooli'. They will not move their ass unless there is some immediate benefit, and MP is not something they care.

Police and other officials: Yes, they object when TN act smart and does some mischief, like driving jeeps on the dam, or dumping dirt on the spillway to increase the level with plausible deniability.

KL Blocks Maintenance and Repairs: That is even funnier. TN tried to put some concrete and mortar in the gaps just before there was some inspection. This was not an officially sanctioned repair, and promptly objected by the KL side. This happened at the time this high power committee was in place.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Aug 2018 07:06

Modern Artistry

Classy video. Way too tasteful.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Aug 2018 07:44

NOW they're using OUR brains! :((
India-born US scientist will develop a prototype forecasting model
New Delhi, August 24
The Centre has finally decided to develop dynamic flood forecasting models for the major river basins in the country, M Rajeevan, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has said.
“We have decided to engage Balaji Rajagopalan, a hydrologist with the University of Colorado in the US, to develop a prototype flood forecasting model for the Indian rivers. This will be funded through the ongoing National Monsoon Mission,” Rajeevan told BusinessLine.


has been part of the team that was involved in developing a world-class model for managing the Colorado river basin in the US.
According to him, the original idea was to develop a flood forecasting system for the Narmada river, which has now been extended to include many Indian rivers, including the peninsular rivers.
“We are close to sending in our revised proposal following comments from the reviews.
This will then be reviewed by Indian experts before a final recommendation is made. We are hoping it will be in the affirmative,” he said.
The India Meteorological Department already has flood warning centres for many major rivers such as the Narmada, Tapto, Yamuna and the Ganga. But they focus mainly on forecasting floods in major urban areas on the banks of these rivers.
The Central Water Commission too has flood warning (and forecasting) systems in place for many Indian rivers, but, according to experts, the efficiency of these forecasts leaves much to be desired.


Meanwhile, CMDRF grows past 500crores

ramana
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 25 Aug 2018 08:07

UB, Your first order model should be up and running. And get IITM madrassa Hydrology dept
Long back the HoD was world renowned. He even use FFT for wave modelling of hydraulic jump. I used to help my friend with Fortran coding.

BTW that guy in bullcok cart was subject to flash flood a common thing in hills after rains. After dams eretc eople forgot.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 25 Aug 2018 08:23

Dileep and UB,

A FB post comparing ing current rainfall to 1924 and 1961.
Short answer much less.

https://twitter.com/sri_diwakar/status/ ... 63073?s=19

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 25 Aug 2018 09:16

ramana, september rainfall is pending.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby chetak » 25 Aug 2018 09:20

habal wrote:ramana, september rainfall is pending.


And they are talking about a very significant precipitation in many areas, especially in Bangalore.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby chetak » 25 Aug 2018 10:52

Image

Sachin
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 25 Aug 2018 11:36

Some news from Kerala
1. 2 Kerala officials arrested in Wayanad for embezzling relief materials. "Rob the rich, feed the poor; and we communists are the poor" theory applied here.
2. 417 dead in Kerala floods, 36 missing. This seems to be the latest casualty figures :(.
3. Kerala floods: Union Health Ministry approves grant of over Rs 18 crore. Some more releif grand on its way. Looks like even the civil supplies coming in as releif have entered Kerala.

On the 700 crores from UAE.
1. Govt has inherited 14-yr policy of refusing foreign aid: Alphons. He is now singing a different tune.
2. No ambiguity on UAE’s aid: CM. He is unable to get over the 700 crores, which perhaps was to land up as part funds :evil:. This would be like the very many lazy Malayalis still hoping for the 15 lakhs coming in from the PM :lol:.
3. Centre probing on source of Rs 700 cr UAE aid info. The probe should not end up with that. There has been many messages on social media groups which was about Kerala splitting away from India, and seditious talks. Many of such commentators would be working in the Middle eastern countries. They should also be pulled in for some "love talk" when they land up on Indian shores the next time.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 25 Aug 2018 12:14


Dilbu
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dilbu » 25 Aug 2018 13:20

One of the malayalam dailies had reported that IB has launched an investigation into sedition related messages that appeared in social media. I have created a cache of screenshots of such messages and shall happily cooperate with this investigation.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby sum » 25 Aug 2018 14:01

Honestly, browsing through the usual Mallu FB groups was a real shock for me.

I thought i had walked into Paki sites going by the venom and disgraceful memes on display which were being shared all over even by "sane" Mallu friends of mine

JE Menon
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby JE Menon » 25 Aug 2018 14:13

^^Yup, I have probably lost a "friend" who was doing this and sent one to me as well (related to aid contribution by states). I responded, with facts etc... and this was dismissed as verbal diarrhoea on the part of yours truly. Naturally, this did not stop the diarrhoea until said gent was drowning in it.

These are people who have no experience in the wars of the 1990s & 2000s on various forums and chat-rooms and what not... Can't hold a candle against us grizzled old warriors.

Of course, now the news from UAE is icing on the crapcake which this "friend" must enjoy at leisure, sitting abroad of course. I was lucky enough to get in just in time (literally hours before Kochi airport closed) to spend the whole 10-11 days after with my aged parents who are alone. Now I'm out again, back to doing the usual crap to earn a living.

Thankfully our property was untouched. Aunt lost everything, well it seems so. Luckily she was with her son in Bangalore at the time.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby sum » 25 Aug 2018 14:50

The issue was not the criticism per se which is expected but the amazing group think on display with not a single dissenting voice and tons of disgraceful Paki-ish posts.

Not one single post questioning the state govt amid all the flurry of anti<insert bjp/cow/hindu related/northern state> posts and memes


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