Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 25 Aug 2018 16:49

Pictures and posts are circulating of assam floods in 16 and 17 and why nobody really made this hue and cry

Keralites are losing a fair share of goodwill in the states that routinely suffer floods

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sridhar K » 25 Aug 2018 18:08

habal wrote:ramana, september rainfall is pending.


Yes, Pradeep John did take into account potentially 2X the normal quota of rainfall in Sept for the projection.

BTW, both during the lead up to the Chennai and KL floods, he was warning about delayed release of water from the dams. We cut short our holiday in Coorg seeing his warning while the locals and even HDK was happily visiting Kukke Subramanya and got stuck there for a day. All the places we visited in the Ghats(Kollur, Sringeri, Subramanya, Madikeri were getting flooded as we were moving East to Mysore from Mangalore

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby habal » 25 Aug 2018 18:28

I have received alerts from NDRF about some storms on 27/28, let us see what happens. Hoping this year has no more nasty surprises in store.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby symontk » 25 Aug 2018 20:35

UlanBatori wrote:While there was very heavy rain in some hill areas (Wynad), the story of monster rains all over, may not hold water. Overall the rain was only some 20% or so above normal, and that abnormality came early too, so that, yes, reservoirs were nearly full by end of July. If heavy rains were then predicted (and predictions were there), the lazy oafs should have started releasing water fast. They did not.

The daily rain / hourly rain is not a meaningful metric. We can check whether the flooding in cities was due to just heavy local rain, or how much was due to idiots opening dams. I don't know the answer for sure, but I know to 90% certainty that it was **NOT** local rain that did it. Heavy rain came in June, and it was after the ground had already been well-soaked. So Trissur for instance may have seen 1-foot floods due to the heavy downpour of August, but there is no explanation for fast-flowing, relatively clean top-level water rising in 4 hours from 1 foot to 5 feet, which is what did all the damage. But let's see... A few voices are beginning to take up the question, and as others find time and electricity and transport, they are also going to start asking.

As for Sholayar flooding Trissur, others are blaming Peechi which is the local reservoir, a LOT closer than Sholayar etc.
My bet knowing how the Top-Down Decision system works in Malloostan is that the CM and his goons were "out to lunch" and ignored all calls for decisions for the past 2 weeks. The Dam Mananagers of PeeDubyaDee and KayEssEeeBee stood around like Boy Standing On Burning Deck with their thumbs up their brains and their WhatsApp phones stuck between their ears.

Then the Commies finally Convened at Marxist Party HQ after dinner and burped The Order at 9:50PM:

OBEN SESAME! open all 80 dams full. Don't let dams break onlee! Drown the Bourgeouis Running Dogs of Capitalism!


Reminds me of the book "CONGO" by Michael Crichton. A fine and gentle civilization builds a nice city. A bunch of vicious apes takes it over. Apologies to gorillas and chimpanzees: those are very gentle and intelligent creatures, no relation to Marxist Party hacks ruling Malloostan,


Isnt it that dams can be opened only when water height are above the sluice gates? Since these dams have sluice gates at the top, how can they release water until it reaches the top? Does anyone know about the dam designs?

I strongly believe that more dams are required to dam all water. For example there can be a mega dam at MP rather than a small one now. Same for Bhootatahan keetu. One of the issue is deforestation as in the case of proposed Athirapally dam. But if there was a mega dam in Athirapally, wont it have prevented the flood in Chalakudy river?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 25 Aug 2018 22:17

Idukki can start releasing water from 2374 ft. That is the minimum height of the sluice gate opening.

A quick madrassa math shows that if Idukki was restricted to 500 Cumecs, the dam level would have risen 5 feet in a day. So, if the level was made 2388ft, the dam could have taken the excess and avoided the severe flood for the three day period.

But that is using the 20/20 hindsight. How will you know how much rain you are going to get? The IMD may tell you a rough figure, but their reliability is not that good.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby arvin » 25 Aug 2018 23:08

>> One of the issue is deforestation as in the case of proposed Athirapally dam. But if there was a mega dam in Athirapally, wont it have prevented the flood in Chalakudy river?

Athirapally dam proposal has been going for a long time, but falls being one of the poster boys of Kerala tourism brochures dam wont materialize
anytime ever. Building a mega dam might lessen the impact, but as seen in the case of Aluva which saw heavy flooding inspite of three dams
MP, Idukki(mega) and cherutoni controlling waters to Aluvapuzha.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 25 Aug 2018 23:47

May be better to have a system of several fairly deep lakes (think Lake Baikal) distributed at various points to act like capacitances. I don't know how to make those or whether they can add up to any significant storage. No walls to break. This is close to "acquifer" concept except with boating on top an expensive LakeSide Living around each. If u drown your body will never be found. Say 1000m deep. Use it to store compressed air for energy storage in bags at the bottom.
Then again it may be cheaper to build canals maybe under or by the side of the National Highways or railroad right of way, to send the water to neighboring states such as TN.These will have significant flow only during extreme events such as floods in KL/ cyclone in TN.

Overall, All*h has given Malloostan and TN an absolutely fantastic water exchange mechanism, in the form of the Western Ghats and the SW/NE Monsoons, separated by 3 months (a phase shift of 90 degrees!!). It is like
Allo Brats, here are these two gifts.
See if you can squander them in a paki-brotherly fashion by ignoring the benefits and squabbling and biting each other's ass instead.

The present situation is idiotic, given that it's been 70 years since it all became part of the same nation. Tamil Nadu is parched when KL is drenched. TN gets drowns as KL closes up dams in November/December, facing grim summer with power cuts and drying wells.

Park a few trucks or rail engines at intervals to power the pumps needed to move the water. There is never any need to tolerate floods in either KL or TN, and probably never have a water shortage again.
It ain't rocket science, as they say. Just disgusting political laziness.

Hang them all.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sridhar K » 26 Aug 2018 05:36

The Kings of Thondai Mandala aka greater Chennai and sorrounding districts had built a beautiful system of ponds ->smaller lakes>big lakes>rivers like Adyar and linked them to natural rivers like palar, kosathalaiyar to form a beautiful system of storing water from mansoons supply the paddy field all around the year. The rest of the water drained into marshlands and Buckingham canal,. Which is now converted to IT highway, where traffic crawls at 30 kms on toll road along with vehicles parked on the road along with cows

Now the entire system has been screwed with lakes converted to real estate, the interconnecting waterways with slums and apartment complexes, roads. During the rains leading to Chennai floods, the slums and thozhil adibars aka industrialist, educationalists who have build factories/colleges on lake beds and natural swarms/marshlands broke opened the lake walls on the opposite side to their real estate with dynamite so that yheir assets are protected. This resulted in flooding the suburban areas. The baboons open-end the sluice Gates of the big chembarambakkam lakes very late, waiting for permission from a brain dead Amma Govt. This resulted in in complete flooding of the Adyar river and Chennai.

The point is lakes also have walls that gets breached by slums dwellers on the branches, sluice Gates not managed by baboons. Any good system can be messed up by corruption, greed, ineptitude and inefficiency

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Singha » 26 Aug 2018 07:26

Imd and isi people are in demand from data science cos

Just as itvity poached embedded people from drdo

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 26 Aug 2018 13:25

Dilbu wrote:One of the malayalam dailies had reported that IB has launched an investigation into sedition related messages that appeared in social media. I have created a cache of screenshots of such messages and shall happily cooperate with this investigation.



Good to see you. How are you?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Philip » 26 Aug 2018 14:11

Bangalore and Madras/ Chennai have been ruined by politicos and babus with self-interest foremost.A sr.IAS officer told me that water was not being allowed into the waterways , which annually cleaned them up, but was being stored for drinking water, which de-salination plants could take care of.They've become open sewers.Encroachment of lakes, marshes, etc. in Bangalore as well has been catastrophic. The only proper working sewerage systems were those laid by the British Raj over a century ago and those workinv properly cater to only what was old Madras.

Contrast this with Colombo which gets far more rainfall.A few decades ago all existing colonial systems were overhauled and ernlarged by foreign experts. Today everything is laid underground incl. storm water drainage in con rete conduits..Every road has broad clear pavements with no encroachments.After heavy downpours water disappears so fast its amazing.Colombo is cleaner than London.It's such a pleasure visiting the island.

On my last visit a few monthx ago, a new UG line was being done on the main road.8 to 8 working time.JCBs, etc. used all night.The next morning it was so perfect and looked as if no work had taken place at all. All work now being done by Lankans not firang contractors.The Chinese however are building 30 to 40 floor hotels and other buildings at unbelievable speed.We are 50 years behind in capability and 100 years mentally ( our ruling elite).

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Aug 2018 17:04

Who eej CompassionateKeralam?
Claim not to accept money, only in-kind donations and time volunteered. "We are having no bank account onlee".

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Aug 2018 17:10

Dilbu wrote:One of the malayalam dailies had reported that IB has launched an investigation into sedition related messages that appeared in social media. I have created a cache of screenshots of such messages and shall happily cooperate with this investigation.


Still hanging around on fB pages of Holy YooEss Embassy, hain, Dilbullah? :mrgreen:
More power to you on this.

(for those who don't know, prior activities resulted in collapse of the US embassy antics in Debjani K case, and led to US Senator calling them "morons", was it?)

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Zynda » 26 Aug 2018 17:22

Dilbu wrote:One of the malayalam dailies had reported that IB has launched an investigation into sedition related messages that appeared in social media. I have created a cache of screenshots of such messages and shall happily cooperate with this investigation.

I just want to mention if its not already being made aware, that certain FB posts are being posted where it makes it like it being drafted by RW Hindus. Essentially, the gist is that "The floods in Kerala is the wrath of certain Hindu gods because of the spite by the populous of the state towards these gods" or something like that. One of the post ended up saying "The Beef eaters & commies in Kerala deserve what they got". This is precisely how recently the social media has been weaponized i.e. create these inflammatory posts to further the existing divisions.

Unfortunately, I am not in FB but last week some one showed me the above post.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Aug 2018 17:55

Unless origin can be traced to malicious entities, no hope of debunking these. Except congratulate postor on behalf of (fill in name of prime suspects).This was part of the ancient 4SPDA (4-Step Paki Detection Algorithm). However, on fB there is no common sense at all: if u do that u may get vijit from kind Kerala Polis. So pretty risky.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 26 Aug 2018 21:40

I am not sure if anyone here is familiar with the Sabarimala Temple. Here is some update.

The Temple is completely isolated currently, with the only access is a 22km trek via a tiger infested forest area. The road head at Pamba is almost completely destroyed.

Someone posted pics here

The entire sand bank on the eastern bank is destroyed, and the river is flowing there now. The massive 'pandhal' called Ramamoorthy Mandapam has vanished, along with the 'nada panthal' ie the covered path from the bridges all the way to the Ganapathy temple. The two bridges that carried the people across the river are standing, but they end in water. the river flows to the east of them. The river flows close to the hill on the east, close to the steps leading to the Pamba Ganapathy temple. The road to Pamba is also severely damaged, so vehicles can't reach there.

It would be impossible to recover before the pilgrim season set to begin in November. I am feeling bad about the possibility of missing my 'appointment'.

Nothing is known about the trekking path from Pamba to the temple. It is likely that there are washouts on this path. I am not sure if anyone actually scouted this. No news from the temple either. There was minimal staff there, including the chief priest. No communication facilities available, so nothing is known about them.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Prasad » 26 Aug 2018 21:44

A low-flying UAV with the sdrf/police would work beautifully in such cases. As with doing overhead recce in the immediate aftermath. Anna university guys were doing small ones for traffic management at DefExpo.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby chetak » 26 Aug 2018 21:55

Prasad wrote:A low-flying UAV with the sdrf/police would work beautifully in such cases. As with doing overhead recce in the immediate aftermath. Anna university guys were doing small ones for traffic management at DefExpo.


A request to the IN by the local collector could work as well. A seaking or a Dornier with some useful endurance could set all speculation at rest as to the nature and extent of the damage.

A low flying UAV from a university may not be very effective in terms of range because it needs line of sight for the radio control electronics and the area may have a lot of tree cover.

If someone can, tweet this direct to the PMO, MoD and NS.

If anyone can get the sabrimala paths ready for the november start of the pilgrimage, it is ONLY these guys.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 26 Aug 2018 23:34

Got back to head quarters after a not very eventful Onam. Some musings about the whole trip.
1. I had entered Kerala via Wayanad Dt. at Bavali check post. The Nagarahole forest managed by the KA ends with a check post at the border. The forest area was really thick with green vegetation and water logging could be seen at places. Generally we do use to some sort of wild life, but this time did not even see a deer.
2. Kaatikulam was the first town on the KL side. It was two days before the main day of Onam, and the town was pretty much with no fan-fare. Queues had formed in some shops (known as Maveli stores) which were managed by KL government. Mananthavady town also was not in its best. Wayanad district had seen some bad land slides, and some areas above (in the hills) Kaatikulam etc. had taken a severe hit.
3. Entered Kozhikode district via a ghat road at Kuttiyadi. This ghat road had taken a hit with multiple land slides and tree falls. But it was all cleared up, and the remenants of the trees were all pushed to the side of the road. The ghat road, surprisingly did not have much damage. There were some bad patches of road before the ghat road, they have gone from bad to worse. Roads in which a jeep could go have gone to a level where only tractors could go.
4. Small towns like Perambra, and bigger ones like Vadakara (Dt. HQ) had very much active markets and shops. This area was relatively peaceful and people at least wanted to celebrate Onam at the confines of their home. SHQs parents had to move to their relative's home for a week since a small rivulet behind their home got flooded. But they did not lose much.
5. Reached Thrissur dt. via Kozhikode-Valancheri-Edappal route. Roads were very much okay, except a few bad stretches which is usual after every rain fall. Nothing has turned out to be really bad here. Thrissur town did offer me some surprises. There were some areas in the town limits where fields were levelled out in 1980s to build houses. No floods there at all. Some how the water did manage to go some where else. There were areas which were converted into huge housing colonies in 1995 (and later) time periods. They seem to have taken a really bad hit. Water level rose upto at least 5 feet, and most common casualty have been cars parked in the garages. People in these housing colonies do not seem to have lost of much of their electronics items and documents etc. Thrissur town also seems to be not very keen on celeberating Onam this time. There were around 5-10 refugee camps operating in the district.
6. The people who have taken the maximum hit, are from the lower income sections of the society. Most of them had built their homes in remote areas or areas very close the the fields/water bodies. Perhaps because this was the only areas available for them for the money they had. Many of these people worked as watch men in ATMs, or apartment complexes, maid servants etc; and they have lost the most :(. It is their rehabilitation which is going to be important (and also costlier). The northern part of the Thrissur district (which is now considered to be "Thrissur city"), is now pretty much back to normal. Even a few folks I know; who are working in various critical GoKL agencies did find time to celeberate -at least partially- Onam with their families.
7. On the way to Palakkad (via Shornur) did see one place which had a massive land slide. The area unfortunately is now becoming an area for "disaster tourism". Right next to the state highway is a huge hill, and today we can clearly see the area from where the rocks & mud came toppling down. The land slide completely destroyed 4-5 houses in the area below the hill. It then pushed over to the state highway, where 3-4 people waiting at the bus stop also were covered up under rocks and mud.
8. The people who I met, none of them were really from the worst hit set of people. And most of them are generally "politically neutral" (unless they are in their own kind of crowd). Many did feel that GoKL agencies tried their best, once it was known that it is going to be a tough time. The role of the fishermen was highlighted by pretty much every one, followed by the Navy and Coast Guard teams; who were involved in the air lifting. IA and Kerala Fire & Rescue, perhaps were not duly recognized. Every one was in good appreciation of a few young IAS officers who actually did lots of good work, and also motivated every one to do their best. What did the IPS officers do, no one knew.
9. Looks like relief camps in most of the northern districts have now got closed down, and folks have returned to their original homes. Alapuzha district seems to be the worst hit and around 500 odd relief camps are still operating there. Even with one relief camp having 100 families, the the total number of homeless would be close to 50,000.

Dilbu wrote:One of the malayalam dailies had reported that IB has launched an investigation into sedition related messages that appeared in social media. I have created a cache of screenshots of such messages and shall happily cooperate with this investigation.

Zynda wrote:I just want to mention if its not already being made aware, that certain FB posts are being posted where it makes it like it being drafted by RW Hindus.

This flood has also exposed a big lot of bad things in Kerala. One of them is the strong presence of many people with strong seccesionist tendencies. Every one knew such people/groups existed, but that crowd has now exposed itself. The UAE Sheikh & his 700 crore farce actually brought out the splits in KL society. Many Islamic groups actually went overboard with their love for UAE and the Sheikhs and trying to show who was more servile to the Arabs. Many of the social media campaigns actually have originated in the Middle eastern countries, so we really don't know much legal remedies can be taken against them. The "700 crore offer", also brought out the greedy mentality of many people. Honestly, Rs. 700 crore is not really big money for India today. But a large part of Malayali society did go over board in trying to get that money from UAE, and even bad mouthing every other Indian. Now with Arnab Goswami hollering about this, a lot of Indians would have a slightly negative image of the KL crowd. There is a campaign planned to "deal with Arnab" (basically abuse him on social media), which again may cause more long term damage to Kerala than any one else.

There were some "dummy Hindutwa" groups operating on Facebook. They, AFAIK was introduced mainly to deal with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The real Sanghies have identified those groups, when they exposed themselves during the flood. Most of them have been reported, and Facebook has now taken them down.

But what can be done against the Malayali abusive trollers (who target even very common Indian citizens) is perhaps all of the victims to use their own state police and the IT Act to get a formal case registered. Target the most vulnerable of the abusers; folks who are currently out of India. Lodge FIRs, and get the magistrate courts to get the cases going. Get "look out" notices issued, so that the moment these abusive crowd lands in any of India's airport, they get picked up. Most of these folks come home once in 2 years, with a leave for around 1-2 months. Even a 15 day time loss for them running after the court cases, and the threat of arrest and detention is enough for them to cry for mercy. Most of these abusive trollers are not very smart people.

Dileep wrote:The Temple is completely isolated currently, with the only access is a 22km trek via a tiger infested forest area. The road head at Pamba is almost completely destroyed.

Again, information from chai wallah sources only. The usual pilgrim route is now completely washed away (as you rightly said). Some devotees have offered to pay for rebuilding the bridges which can be used by the pilgrims. The Military Engineers have also said that they can rebuild the bridge. The minister in charge of temples had earlier said that "soldiers can only stand with machine guns at check posts"; have grown wiser and have requested the Army to rebuild the bridge.

With large scale destruction, people (and GoKL) seems to have kept aside Sabari Mala for some time. There is always some police presence at Sabari Mala and they have their wireless network still intact. At places like Kochu Pampa, looks like police & army men have already started some work to get Sabari Mala back to shape. There should be forest watchers, and other officials who can still trek through the forest and reach the temple. There is another alternate route to Sabari Mala (which many people use to come at the time of Makara Vilakku etc.) which is still intact. But Sabari Mala pilgrimage is not going to be easy, it would be the same as how this pilgrimage was undertaken 50-60 years ago.

Singha wrote:Keralites are losing a fair share of goodwill in the states that routinely suffer floods

To be quite frank; Keralites are again going to loose more good will if they continue the same style of behaviour which they show on social media. Social media is one area where every Malayali has a presence (be it a blog, Facebook or Twitter). Many of its users how ever do not seem to realise that social media has a wide reach; and it can even go beyond their original imaginary limits. The "mental block" which many a Keralite has (my Kerala, my Gelf, my 100% literacy, my states's good HDI) is now really coming out. I have seen numerous chaps who use all this; for abusing northern states and even demanding "money" from the central government. Please note; demand is always for money (preferably ready cash) not for services.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 27 Aug 2018 07:11


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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby SaiK » 27 Aug 2018 07:42

I think the best architecture and design would be enforcing policy standards in infrastructure. no more releasing of water, unless it was a contractual agreement between controller and receiver states/areas.

Just create overflows.. so the flow-rate is always how much ever water that rains *now* in the catchment.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby ramana » 27 Aug 2018 09:13

Folks I want to.understand what happened and come up with policy recommendations. Being mostly engineers we should understand RCA and CA process.

We need accurate timeline and we are getting there.
Till then hold the corrective actions.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Aug 2018 09:16

Sachin wrote:This flood has also exposed a big lot of bad things in Kerala. One of them is the strong presence of many people with strong seccesionist tendencies. Every one knew such people/groups existed, but that crowd has now exposed itself. The UAE Sheikh & his 700 crore farce actually brought out the splits in KL society. Many Islamic groups actually went overboard with their love for UAE and the Sheikhs and trying to show who was more servile to the Arabs. Many of the social media campaigns actually have originated in the Middle eastern countries, so we really don't know much legal remedies can be taken against them.


Which brings up the thought that there is an amplification effect of bots. I think it would be naive to think that the US 2016 elections and the Brexit vote would be the only ones where bots were used to magnify polarization in the target polities. There is no reason that India would not be a target. The point is that the effect of a few hundred people can be greatly magnified by bots, to the extent that we would think there is a significant political opinion where in reality it is totally insignificant.

Here is an article on how to spot bots on Twitter.
https://medium.com/dfrlab/botspot-twelv ... dc7d9c110c

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 27 Aug 2018 12:43

ramana wrote:Folks I want to.understand what happened and come up with policy recommendations. Being mostly engineers we should understand RCA and CA process.

Various authorities are still in the "blame game" mode. And AFAIK, the Central govt has NOT set up an enquiry commission suo moto; which I feel needs to be done pronto. Such a calamity cannot be just left as a one-off case. And in KL, the focus is now on rehabilitation (which is right) and then coming up with one story after another blaming some one else for every thing which went wrong (which is not correct). The main stream media also seems to be completely trying to hide the various actions & inactions of the government. GoKL should be happy to see the Main stream Media which is crawling when it is asked to bend. Perhaps only USSR or China has such luxuries.

A_Gupta wrote:The point is that the effect of a few hundred people can be greatly magnified by bots, to the extent that we would think there is a significant political opinion where in reality it is totally insignificant.

Hmm. Bots and ficticious users can be used for magnification of an opinion. But when I see folks who I personally know; now just abusing every one else except the KL government I am getting a very sad feeling. A lot of KL citizens have been led to believe that they can just keep on making demands; and other states and Indian Union have to keep on providing the same. If this kind of behaviour gets more coverage; it is only going to cause anger and distrust in many Indians from other parts of India who will just say that KL is a bunch of freeloaders.

Mean while on the status of the rescue & relief.

Malayalis hit back with trolls at Arnab Goswami's 'shameless' comment. How many of the people who "hit back", have actually understood what Arnab spoke in English is another big mystery. Arnab only a mentioned about a "Group of Malayalis"; which the usual "secular" gang conveniently made it to mean "Entire Malayalis".


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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 27 Aug 2018 14:10

The dam started discharging 500 cumecs on 9th, which is increased to 750 on 10th Aug.the level was brought down to 2397ft by this. Then the big rain came, mullaperiyar opened on the night of 14th, and all hell broke loose. Idukki was discharging 1500 Cumecs ever after.

The area of Idukki lake is 60 sqkm at FRL. The level rose by 1.3 metres while the dam was discharging at 1500 Cumecs, and held there for two more days. If the discharge was a more safer 750 Cumecs, the level increase would have been 3.24 metres approximately, which is beyond safe limits. So, 'slow release' argument wouldn't work, if we activate it after the discharge started on Aug 9th.

The IMD warning of more rain came AFTER the discharge of Aug 9th, so the demand that the level should have been reduced doesn't hold.

To summarize: IMD warning for heavy rain happened after the dam is already discharging at the "safe maximum" of 750 Cumecs. So, nothing could have been done to reduce the level.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 27 Aug 2018 15:36

Mean while the main stream Malayalam media is back to spreading its divisive agenda.
How should a good ruler be? UAE PM's tweet goes viral. The media seems to play up the role of UAE in Kerala. Saw another report in Malayalam which talks about the UAE Ambassador making a tour of the effected areas in KL. Is there a precedence for ambassadors from other countries allowed to visit parts of India hit by natural calamity? I think it is time for a message to be clearly sent out to UAE that she should not try to fish in muddled waters.

Kerala floods hit paddy, banana, spices in 45,000 ha: Centre.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby nandakumar » 27 Aug 2018 15:45

Sachin wrote:Mean while the main stream Malayalam media is back to spreading its divisive agenda.
How should a good ruler be? UAE PM's tweet goes viral. The media seems to play up the role of UAE in Kerala. Saw another report in Malayalam which talks about the UAE Ambassador making a tour of the effected areas in KL. Is there a precedence for ambassadors from other countries allowed to visit parts of India hit by natural calamity? I think it is time for a message to be clearly sent out to UAE that she should not try to fish in muddled waters.

Kerala floods hit paddy, banana, spices in 45,000 ha: Centre.

I guess the Emir of Dubai was obliquely criticing the Emir of Abu Dhabi. The Malayalam media is extending it to the Indian context.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Aug 2018 16:45

I still believe that India should have accepted the money with grace and put it into the kitty for reconstruction. No shame in that, IMO: when UAE gets hit India has and will continue to help. In fact it opens the door for IAF and IN to help when UAE residents need to be evacuated (coming soon..).

If a tree falls on ur house, and your wallet is in the box smashed under it, it is rather silly to spend your time setting the dog on the neighbor trying to buy gas to get your chainsaw going.

OF COURSE any "direct aid" as in UAV sending cash to individuals, should go through usual legal channels. With all due respect, the Centre made a dog's breakfast of the UAE "non-offer". AT LEAST, until all negotiations were done, they should have claimed to have no confirmed knowledge of any such offer (which is probably what the Centre has **ACTUALLY** done, it's all these "former diplomutts" etc mouthing off to the media.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Aug 2018 16:59

Sachin wrote:Such a calamity cannot be just left as a one-off case.


Think about that. It is **NOT*** a one-off or "hundred-year" even like an earthquake, nor should people put their hands skyward and call it "Act of All*h" and go back to scratching their musharrafs.

THERE IS EVERY REASON TO EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN IN JUNE-AUGUST 2019.

If not before June 2019. Or at some random time thereafter. See "OKHI". ppl passed that off as "hey, some stupid fishermen ignored Met Warnings. Go back to scratching musharraf on WhatsApp". It is simply fortuitous that the eye of that stayed well off-shore. Next time it could just come and stand outside COK harbor for 3 days and slam all KL. In fact the result would be MUCH worse because the rain in the hills would be as intense, and the runoff at the river-mouths will get blocked by ocean cyclone swell. PLUS the backwaters will have tidal waves and rise say 10 feet by again, cyclode tidal swell (wind whips water shoreward on one side and sucks it out on the other). PLUS every port will be closed. PLUS every airport will be closed.

Casualties may rise there to tens of thousands, esp. since nothing is going to be done to shore up Mullaperiyar and the other ancient mud dams.

This is the "new normal". Will **WITH HIGH PROBABLITY** [1] get worse. Incidents of extremely intense rain over 36-hour to 72 hour periods are no longer "one-off". Witness Mumbai some years ago. Chennai even closer. Assam earlier this year (I can't remember what triggered that, it seemed to be totally off-season). Now KL this SW Monsoon. Also Coorg right now (worse than KL except for the lack of stupid dam management).

In fact, the **ONLY** way to claim that it WON'T HAPPEN is to convince everyone that this one was an Anthropogenic Disaster due to commie stupidity. And hence can be avoided.

If you see anything wrong with my madarssa logic pls let me know.
[1] I am using the elegant sophisticated style of the Assessment Reports of the InterGuvrmand Banel on Climate Change.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Aug 2018 17:06

And BTW, risking being blasphemous, I agree with Dileep's report on the superstitions about the cause (which caused lots of takleef and got one enraged entity to take a vacation). Nature got mad, very unsurprisingly, at the decades of trashing the pristine forests around Sabarimala.
It has always been too dangerously blasphemous to report objectively on the annual trashing circus which has made a trip to any temple in KL an arduous process similar to the original pilgrimages[2] to SM. For instance DeraUstadMouth, starting about now and going through late December.
Waited long enough for sense to prevail and control the annual mass trashing (and faaaar worse..) by raucous tourists with no basic potty-training let alone any other civilization.

Now done a pretty thorough scouring and cleaning. Same can be said about Kedarnath, come to think of it.

Hope someone sits down and thinks through that message instead of shooting the messenger(s) and trying to blame some subset that has **NOT YET** started participating in the annual trashing.
At least, when reconstruction occurs, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan should impose some codes, and require adherence. OK, I will disappear for some time, pls don't ban me.

[2] Original pilgrimages were indeed arduous. Had to walk on foot (barefoot of course) with a sack of all one's kit on one's head. 41 days because it took that long. High risk of becoming tiger-food. A far cry from the invasion army coming via Luxury AC Tourist Buses taking the "holy" crowd like a swarm of locusts through KL every Sep. - Dec. My suggestion would be to require a (pretty cheap but covering the maintenance costs) trekking permit from Dept. of Natural Resources to enter the forest area, and that permit is given for daily access to residents who live within a 10-mile perimeter, monthly access to those living within 100km, annually to any resident of KL, and once every 10 years to anyone else. Same conditions on access by vehicle. Stringent penalties for littering or otherwise insisting on ignoring Swacch Bharat. But surely I ain't posting this where ppl can trace my ID. :eek: :shock: Tigers are a minor worry.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 27 Aug 2018 18:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Dileep » 27 Aug 2018 18:08

If an Okhi like Cat 4 Tai-feng parks near good old Kochi, we can take that only as god's wrath onlee. There is nothing you can do about it, neither to prevent, nor to correct. Of course, we all could mend our ways and be more bious and 'upanayified,sunnathized,baptized,amritdhari' environmentians, but what is the sense that it will avoid that disaster?

I mean, it is all well and good ideas. Good if we do. Good if we do not trash the hills. Good if we do not encroach into forest land. Good if we leave alone poor lord Ayyappa. Good if we do our shopping in clth bags. But none of those is going to avoid a disaster if such a load of water gets dumped in the hills. Even if GoK babus get access to Lord Muruga as state astrologer and obtain 100% accurate weather prediction, allowing them to empty dams in advance and keep them ready, had the recent rains continued for four days instead of two, we would have seen the same or worse flood. A properly emptied Idukki can take only three days of this rain as my madrassa math shows.

So, what is the point? We can do nothing if mother nature wants to go evil. Now, the notion that she decided to do so because we had been bad boys ranks in the same league as Lord Ayyappa got angry and decided to teach us a lesson.

We could have avoided the worst in the Periyar basin if the warning came on 8th Aug or earlier, and the damned dam babus figured things out and emptied Idukki and Idamalayar. But what about the other river systems that flooded 3ShivName, StreetDrinking, 3StreamRiver, Milka, RedStoneLand etc?

Gods wrath, nature's anger, global warming, sun cycle, you can imagine reasons, but this was a natural calamity with no assignable cause and no reasonable prevention.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Aug 2018 18:23

Yes, I agree that this is not a 1-time event. Maybe use mud-resistant paint up to 6 feet in homes? Moor your SUV like a boat when you park it?
"Solution" is E-Z. Require all bldgs on land below Contour Red to have sealed compressed-air cylinders below them, purchased (of course) from Ulan Bator Hot Air&Renewable Energy Inc. And be built of Integral Monocoque Framework. And be on 4 sliding poles. And have max weight less than buoyancy. In flood time, the bldgs would simply slide up the posts, but float in place.
(See Solomon Islands: they already do the poles/frame part for their beach homes because tsunami is expected any time, and they do survive tsunamis).
Mudslides, well.. tough. Nothing is going to survive that. Seeing that Dera Eye mudslide video is :eek: Talk about Force of Nature. The mud was actually forming into huge waves!!
Some protection of roads and rail-track side slopes may be wise. Plus some thought to better drainage from mountains. Drill holes, make a few streams if necessary. Sensors on slopes to warn traffic and close off roads and rail in time.
But as for the other stuff, Dileepji, flood in parts of Dera 3shivnaam now unambiguously blamed on several canals etc. Directly downstream of certain dams that were opened. 6-inch flood may be Nature. 6-foot flood was anthropogenic stupidity or worse.
The data now show also that it was **NOT** a 100-year event. They just didn't have WhatsApp to compound it on prior occasions. The present excuse is "we SMS-ed a few ppl in town that v were going 2 open dams". :roll:

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby rsingh » 27 Aug 2018 21:09

There was this famous waterfall on way to Mannar. Any recent pics of that place?

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby Sachin » 27 Aug 2018 21:30

UlanBatori wrote:I still believe that India should have accepted the money with grace and put it into the kitty for reconstruction. No shame in that, IMO: when UAE gets hit India has and will continue to help.

There has been much more clarity on this non-issue. After the floods the UAE sheikh had shared his sympathies for the Keralite people, and also assured people of Kerala his support. To this "support" (which was not yet defined) the PM also gave a note of thanks to the Sheikh. The foreign ministry of UAE had shared a note about the funds being generated by the people at UAE (expatriates & Emiratis) in order to help Kerala. This fund was to be in the line of around 1 million AED. It was the media with vested interests who linked the "support" of UAE sheikh with the "1 million AED" being collected at UAE.

What happened next seems to be choreographed vilification campaign. A mysterious sum of Rs. 700 crores was brought up, and India's own interim relief fund of Rs. 600 crores was compared with it. The fact that Rs.600 crore was interim relief was also suppressed by the main stream media in Kerala. This vilification campaign went on; till it was abundatly clear that India is going to reject offers of money as a matter of principle and the Sheikh has an option of depositing Rs. 700 crores to the CM's relief fund. UAE then made a formal announcement that it had no plans to give any money. Kerala's politicians had high hopes on a Kerala based businessman, and did not make any official attempts to reach out to the UAE sheikh. This businessman at present does not have any clout with GoI either.

I have been scanning multiple Malayalam media outlets, but have not come across any concrete plans of rehabilitation coming from the Kerala government. Is the state planning to give the people in the relief camps some good "seed money" to help them restart their lives? Is the state coming up with any steps to make the rebuilding of homes etc an easier task? Are they planning to introduce some measures by which people could be trained to take up some jobs? (KL at present has severe shortage of electricians, plumbers etc. etc.). And the most important question - is the state planning to come up with a good report on what caused this tragedy? Was it nature's fury or where they faulty procedures also which triggered the calamity?

There is also complete silence from the state's finance minister who is supposed to be a skilled economist. What is the current financial position of KL? How much money does KL have to spare to help her citizens? If there is a short fall of funds, how is it going to be mitigated? What are the long term and short term plans to rejuvenate KL's economy? All I heard was about increasing liquor costs & introducing a new lottery :roll:. As per a news report; the unofficial amount of losses is now pegged at Rs. 35,000 crores. The state's financial position allows expenditure of Rs. 29150 crores. For many state projects centre provides the funds, which is estimated at around Rs. 8 crore. Both these funds added; would only be just allowing the state to cover up the losses. There would not be any thing left to restart the economy.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Aug 2018 21:48

One help that "we" might be able to do is set up an fB page to document the Winners (companies):
1) Airlines etc that have held prices, refunded cancelled fares w/o fuss, re-routed stranded passengers.
2) INSURANCE companies / agints who have been pro-active in getting help to people, both interim and in filing claims.
3) Twits that tried conversion, party politics etc. with vulnerable ppl.

The omissions can be named as in "Sorry onlee, we cannot name UlanBatori FlyByNite, CEO Handsome Yak-Face, in this because.... " and give links to documented experience from customers/former customers.
Who knows? Might deter scammers and bullies just a bit.

There are a lot of ads on TV in unowhere, saying:
I don't need a different POLICY
I need a different INSURANCE COMPANY

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Aug 2018 22:28

Way back, the EllEyeSee offered Evil 6th coujin a bada insurance polijy. E6C wrote honestly about existing condishun like "on the shoot-at-sight list of 17 countries, mugshot in library of 270 Predator UAVs" etc. No prablem, form accepted along with Bremium cheque that was cashed even more promptly. A month later, local branch head had the bright idea of sending E6C a pharm saying:
"Sign this onlee and v will send you updated bremium notice".
:shock:
E6C grew up eating 400% rice, not hashish, so sent them a nice pic of middle finger and demanded immediate return of paid bremium. No intelligence resulted.

So he showed them why that was not such a smart idea - had a few contacts in Mavelistan that they may not have suspected incl. old cricket-team buddy whose niece was also aphsar in EllEyeSee. Conveyed a nice letter to BigWigs. One din soon the Head got a call to show up at Regional Appees. Got a few nice kicks in the musharraf (figuratively speaking of course), plus a nice Reprimand Letter to frame and post on his (now much smaller) office wall and was ordered to refund bremium.

Lesson conveyed. Agint (who was surely in on the scam) also got black eye.

Lesson: Sometimes insurance cos. benefit greatly from nice soccer practice on their too-smart aphsars' musharrafs.
I am reading several things here about how insurance co. rejected this and that. Hey, story doesn't have to end there, IMO. Kick their butts in public. Strike while the butt is hot, etc. In present environment, ppl have their backs arched, and fur and tails sticking up.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby chetak » 27 Aug 2018 22:39

snakes come in various shapes and sizes.
None more venomous than this creepy crawly


Image

sanjaykumar
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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Aug 2018 23:37

The Vatican will help God's chosen.

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Re: Kerala Floods - Aug 2018

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Aug 2018 23:38

So that heathens don't have to do this.

https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/k ... 51887.html


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