Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

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dinesh_kimar
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby dinesh_kimar » 10 Feb 2019 09:56

^ it is obvious the author lurks in BRF.

West Pakis " Tall, fair and good looking. Bengalis only short and dark, good for growing rice and catching fish. "

It's uncanny, no way a coincidence. I think he's the Pakistan version of a jingo.

The only thing missing is blaming West Pakistan's failure on " Torsion bar".

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Singha » 10 Feb 2019 10:02

he is a well known parsi physicist I believe.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Neshant » 10 Feb 2019 11:00

venug wrote:Yes I do agree Kashi ji. 1971 was agolden opportunity, we didnt even put forth a demand for unification of


Would have been a huge financial burden on India.

The current setup works best.

Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Maldives are improving economically.

Pakistan has economically failed and ironically will be stiffing China soon for OBOR debt on over-priced white elephant infrastructure projects.

Nepal is doing dumb things believing they will benefit by playing regional politics. But they will find their losses will outnumber their gains.

Overall the situation looks stable with India on the rise. Things haven't looked this good in decades.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Kashi » 10 Feb 2019 14:08

Singha wrote:he is a well known parsi physicist I believe.


I thought he was a Shia.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Peregrine » 10 Feb 2019 14:15

Singha wrote:he is a well known parsi physicist I believe.
Singha Ji :

I thought he’s an Ismaili muslim (somewhat similar to Shiite muslims)

Cheers Image

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby VKumar » 10 Feb 2019 15:32

venug wrote:Also any trade with them means, funding their terrorism and lerting them live for ever.


Ban all trade with Pakistan and China.

Can't we survive without them? We will learn to make in India and supply the world.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby hemant_sai » 10 Feb 2019 15:42

Check this link,
https://mea.gov.in/rajya-sabha.htm?dtl/ ... O_PAKISTAN

I just feel like banging my head on the wall. What exactly stops India from declaring Pakistan as enemy state?

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Singha » 10 Feb 2019 16:10

Ibnlive

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan will meet International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde in Dubai on Sunday for talks on issues which have held up bailout negotiations, a Pakistani minister said on Saturday.
Pakistan is seeking its 13th bailout since the late 1980s to deal with a current account deficit that threatens to trigger a balance of payments crisis, but talks have been delayed by difficulties in reconciling IMF reform demands with Islamabad's fears the push is too drastic and could hurt economic growth.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Neshant » 10 Feb 2019 16:46

VKumar wrote:We will learn to make in India and supply the world.


Easier said than done.

There is almost zero supply chain and zero manufacturing capacity in India.

Everything is chaotic and disorganized.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby pankajs » 10 Feb 2019 16:50

hemant_sai wrote:Check this link,
https://mea.gov.in/rajya-sabha.htm?dtl/ ... O_PAKISTAN

I just feel like banging my head on the wall. What exactly stops India from declaring Pakistan as enemy state?

Nothing stops India from declaring Bakistan enemy state BUT what will it achieve?

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby nam » 10 Feb 2019 17:49

My view, Pakistan will not end. It will always be there. It is in our interest that it should be there.. in a jelly state.

Unfortunately it has achieved a sort of jelly state without any contribution from our side.

If it ends, then we have to feed them. And all our their friends in India will make sure Indian tax papers foot the biil.

We already had reasoning given on why India should provide aid to help them out of their economic situation and it is in our interest.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Feb 2019 18:08

^^nam sir, you are confusing the topic title, the paki nucleus will exist in punjab, the objective is to take the orbital electrons like Sindh, baluchistan, fata/nwfp/kpk.
Also, to me it appears your line of thinking is exactly what the pakis would like americans and us to think. Yes we will have to take care of them, but only if we absorb them. If we leave them as a separate country, then what? We did not take enough care of BDs too. The thing is all these smaller states will have less hostility, emanating from pakjab, towards India. Dont intend to say that they'll be weaker. But if that is our version of Monroe doctrine then so be it. A bigger pakistan is certainly not in the long term interests of India. It's creation was for India's containment and it's stability will fulfil that dream.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Kashi » 10 Feb 2019 18:54

ArjunPandit wrote:The thing is all these smaller states will have less hostility.


That's questionable to say the least. BD is not really less hostile, despite Sheikh Hasina at the helm. Scratch the surface and you'll find an attitude not really dissimilar from that of the Bakis.

Likewise, NoKo is no less hostile to SoKo and Japan, just because it's a smaller state.

The new Baki states may well be new geopolitical entities, but their anti-Indian mindset will not change. Just because they may not wish to be ruled by Pakjabis any longer, does not make them any less hostile.

The mindset goes beyond the political construct of these entities.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Rahul M » 10 Feb 2019 19:57

taking the bangladesh example further, would you rather have united east & west pak in stead of pak & ban ?
I dont think so, a number of smaller entities provide much more levers of control than a single large one. sure BD mindset may not have changed, but its ability to hamper us has significantly deteriorated. that itself is a clear win.
btw hasn't mindset changed though ? would you argue that the common populace is equally anti-Indian both in terms of percentage & the strength of that feeling ? the very fact of a leader like sheikh hasina being in power, who is widely seen as pro-India would have been impossible in pakistan. whether due to army interference or popular discontent.
smaller countries from pak would have themselves as neighbours, which itself would provide levers to Indian state. even for BD, Indo-BD relations would have been much better had they another bordering country except myanmar. ;)

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Kashi » 10 Feb 2019 20:17

That I agree, having multiple small entities in this instance may possibly be more manageable. My point that we are not so sure if the smaller entities will have less hostility.

Sure BD ability to hamper us has significantly deteriorated, chiefly because SH has clamped down on anti-Indian groups. But because we perceive them as less hostile, illegal BeeDees streaming into India is taken as less of a threat than had these been from NaPakistan.

I fear that an independent Sindhudesh may be less capable of inflicting harm, but they'll be no less hostile and we may as well see BD-2, with phata-Abdul pouring over a less patrolled border and find themselves easily "accommodated".

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby darshhan » 10 Feb 2019 21:22

ArjunPandit wrote:^^nam sir, you are confusing the topic title, the paki nucleus will exist in punjab, the objective is to take the orbital electrons like Sindh, baluchistan, fata/nwfp/kpk.
Also, to me it appears your line of thinking is exactly what the pakis would like americans and us to think. Yes we will have to take care of them, but only if we absorb them. If we leave them as a separate country, then what? We did not take enough care of BDs too. The thing is all these smaller states will have less hostility, emanating from pakjab, towards India. Dont intend to say that they'll be weaker. But if that is our version of Monroe doctrine then so be it. A bigger pakistan is certainly not in the long term interests of India. It's creation was for India's containment and it's stability will fulfil that dream.


Yes Indeed Pakistan should be dismembered but if you do not absorb pakjab and Sindh portion, the threat to us will never recede. Just because bahmani sultanate split into multiple sultanates, it did not lessen the threat they posed to Vijaynagar empire. It is all in history.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Feb 2019 21:43

Coming to the geographical A break of paki states would entail the following states
1. Punjab
2. Sindh
3. Balochistan
4. NWFP

The question is how would the boundaries look like amongst the states? Speaking theoretically it depends upon
1. How does the split up happen: Ideal would be civil war, followed by Indian military intervention & finally arbitration or internal insurgencies. War with india (causus beli kashmir and full scale defeat rather than CSD), followed by loss and then indian or UN led split up
2. How to local and global forces interact: Local forces: paki dissenters, India, Iran, Afghanistan,
Global: US, Russia China, and UK+Ummah (KSA, & UAE primarily)
Also on the leaders at that time.
This seems to be difficult without Iranian support. My hunch is that we will find US, UK and China again on same side with varying degrees of hostility (from outright opposition to diplomatic chill). India, Russia and Iran on another.

Focussing more on Iran will have strong interests in this area for balochs in Iran will also complicate matters. The question is does Iran absorb some territory from Balochistan. My viewpoint is to lure balochs in Iran to Pakistan with land holdings to manage population sparsity there. The next question will be to find if that can be done in first place. Then will iran and balochs be happy be this solution? Another way is iran absorbs baloch area in return for support (military or logistics)
Some area also would also need to be given to Afghanistan. Possibly to have more stable access to central access to India but I dont think that would be a major issue because of similar populations on both sides. For PoK, that needs to be brought back in Indian again and governed with an iron first untill the deradicalization takes places. That leaves sindh. I am not sure how will that go.
3. How many fragments do end up in succeeding?Ultimately that depends upon how things take course after initial strike.

Before proceeding the split, there will be a need of having visionary leaders who can govern these states. I did hear about educated balochis on timesnow debates. But not sure about rest. Pakis have been very good in eliminiating local leadership. Bugti hit was himself ordered by pervez.

Another question will come to front is, how do these states foot themself. If there is no western bloc support, then no money will be coming. It's better to have one pakistan than 4 afghanistans close to home. Sindh can be trading hub, and so can balochistan for minerals and Punjab for agriculture. But even those things will take time to fructify. Punjab has been the agriculture hub.
Last edited by ArjunPandit on 10 Feb 2019 22:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Feb 2019 21:48

darshan sir, the threat will never recede. But it will become increasingly weaker and will have lesser land to open fronts on us. I am very well aware of vijaynagar empire collapse so can't comment on it right now. But some serious thoughts on it need to be applied. Yes this thread is at least a decade ahead in time, but this needs to be thought through.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby darshhan » 11 Feb 2019 22:51

ArjunPandit wrote:darshan sir, the threat will never recede. But it will become increasingly weaker and will have lesser land to open fronts on us. I am very well aware of vijaynagar empire collapse so can't comment on it right now. But some serious thoughts on it need to be applied. Yes this thread is at least a decade ahead in time, but this needs to be thought through.


Arjun Sir, We all know(atleast in our hearts) what has to be done with Pakjab after its conquest. Ofcourse we cannot discuss it in this forum. The question is whether we will be ruthless enough and do what needs to be done. Another issue is that do we have the right agency to do what it takes? I doubt if Indian Army with its secular ethos will execute this task completely. Sure they are great fighters but sometimes more is needed.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 11 Feb 2019 23:27

ArjunPandit wrote:Starting this thread as a playground to discuss how pakistan is brought to its logical end and how the post collapse/dismemberment scenario look like. What will be the implications. Will update this as and when required



Thanks for reviving this topic. Lots of members have grown cynical and complacent.
Y Kanan you need not open the thread if you find it not to you liking.
Quite often many members pooh pooh others and prevent discussion.
One level higher or worser are those who label Conspiracy Theory.
In the last 20 years every theory labelled as CT has turned true and not one apology from the stal warts.

Arjun Pandit, right after the 1998 tests we had similar thread.
My worry then was TSP would not test and get all the benefits fro Bill Clinton and his coterie.
LKAji goaded them to test and am ever grateful to him for that useful act.
This made TSP an International problem and not just an Indian problem.
We are now seeing the fruits of that action.
During GOAT, TSP made ulloo of US and milked them for all they had. After 2008 fiasco, US could not afford to keep them on the grav train.
With Trump in WH its even more obvious.
Into the void China has stepped in via OBOR etc.
TSP is now Western most province of China.
Earlier TSP had multifaceted aspects to its existence.
NaMo in last four years has negated most of them leaving China only one option to take over the sorry state.

As reference, during the 2000 decade, Gen Paddy had written an article that India will face a two front war with China and TSP colluding.
In return I had said china will never face Indi directly as any probability of an upset defeat will crash them and become an existential threat.
Most likely China would goad TSP to fight India and give logistic support and make war like noises in the East to distract and divert resources.

This comment was picked up by many realist observers and things have come to pass in that manner.
The Dokhlam crisis shows China cannot afford a military upset and backed down.

This fact gives India a chance to untangle and de-merge TSP into its constituent parts.

Keeping this in mind please proceed as you are on right track.
You have my support

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 11 Feb 2019 23:53

darshanji
i dont think we need IA to do dirty jobs. The rot always spreads. We will find enough of police to do such jobs. We can have locals to do the job. Money will travel far in a nation poor. PA policies policies would have disenchanted many. Morally, I am not in favor of this, but then such jobs are never completed without getting hands dirty. May be we will have to pay in blood. Mahabharat yuddh is prime example that you have to use craft, get dirty as well. The age of ramayan is past us.
I may be completely wrong in picking up this logic but china claimed to be top dog in asia after '62. They never defeated anyone comprehensively before and after that, it was their india victory. UB had raised an interesting point eons back that their chinese withdrawal was not charity or peace loving. But their fear that their supply lines in those days were untenable and vulnerable to counterattacks. They did no have a better economy than ours. Neither the military till 90s. Now the cost of cutting china will be huge. We may come to blows, but in game of chess pawns go first. Pakistan is China's pawn or may be bishop. If that is cut their CPEC is gone and so is their pride. They lose their proverbial face in Asia. It is better to do it sooner than later because Chinese should not think of it as their stalingrad.

The only country capable of controlling and managing the rot that pak and afgh are today, is India. We did it in past and we can do it later as well. The thing to take care of is not to stretch ourselves then. At the lower end we can think of these areas as our buffers, at the higher ends, they can be feeder to our 10-15 Tn economy of cheap labor and growth avenues. Till the time our products go to west, (if globalization remains till then), we would need these markets for our low end products and hence employing labor in india. These zones providing cheap labor and raw materials with an opportunity to move up the value chain along with India. The hostility may be there, but still it will be more of an irritant than thorn in neck.

we may have to act ourselves in conjunnction with afghans/iranians and russians. Play the US along till that time. US will not mind paki going off the map. If we could do it in 70s when our trade with them was miniscule and India registered as a country of snake charmers and soviet bloc in their minds. Then we are way better now with pakis registering as 9/11 country.

I also think that west has soft corner for malsis because they've fought and ruled over west. The image downfall came after ww1. Indics while shed blood in ww1/2 are still not viewed from the same respect. This can be an expensive way of redemption.

My hunch for last 2-3 years is modi is keeping his Pakistan agenda for second half of his second term. Focus on Tejas, daal roti missiles and not A6, Arti (diff types), Ammo shortage addressing, sniper rifles and other guns are all steps in that direction. If goes well, this will ensure a third term if not nothing lost. He had it enough already.

Ramana sir, my thoughts are not very coherent. Would definitely need your ear holding (the indian style).

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Supratik » 12 Feb 2019 00:36

The solution to a complex problem is to divide it into smaller problems and then solve it. A nitpick Sindh is not going to remain united. The mohajirs will take Karachi and with it about one-third of Sindh's population. Remaining Sindh is demographically less challenging to absorb as it will have considerable Hindu population and relatively less antagonistic Muslim population. POK is also integratable. Balochistan can be a friendly country. We need only the Lasbela district bordering Sindh where exists one of the most revered Hindu temple Hinglaj. That leaves the problem limited to Pakjab-Pathan areas which is militarily manageable. It could happen via internal chaos leading to disintegration once the forefathers and the army are unable to manage it or it could be by design.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Feb 2019 01:06

^^this is when i miss rohitvats most. Probably we need to look into his analysis on water bodies/canals near indian border.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 21:59

Folks, as much saddened I am due to Pulwama attack, it is a grim reminder to all of us to take the fight to the hell hole of enemy's home. This attack does offer us an opportunity to initiate a set of kinetic actions. Gen sundarji yearned for such opportunity, and was denied to him by rajiv and coeterie under pressure from americans. Now we have that opportunity.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 22:05

One of the things we will have to sort out for a long drawn conflict is supply local insurgents across the border. In case of war IA progress will be difficult beyond 50 kms due to water bodies (natural and artificial). Ichhogil canal is well fortified with eastern boundary at lower height.
The follwoing are the options I think of
1. J&K border
2. Punjab border
3. Rajasthan & Gujrat border
4. Sea route
5. Iranian and Afghan routes
6. Air drops: small arms and ammos through small sized drones. Would be tough as their airdefence network is fairly robust on eastern side
7. Leveraging local infrastructure
Will continue to post my thoughts on each of them

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 15 Feb 2019 23:05

ArjunPandit wrote:^^this is when i miss rohitvats most. Probably we need to look into his analysis on water bodies/canals near indian border.



You are looking for military solution when its much larger solution needed.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 23:07

ramana wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:^^this is when i miss rohitvats most. Probably we need to look into his analysis on water bodies/canals near indian border.



You are looking for military solution when its much larger solution needed.

no military solution is just one part of it, perhaps one of the most important. There has to be multiple prongs to it military comes in the end
1. Economic
2. Diplomatic
3. Cyber space
4. Watersharing
5. military

without military backing nothing else will work

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 23:08

....pooof...

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Ramu » 16 Feb 2019 05:38

Ramu wrote:The endgame is balkanization.
Every little thing that helps in tightening the screws should be done.

MFN status and it's perks should be removed.


It is very important to understand the true representation of what pakistan stands for.

It is the last remaining identity of islamic invasion of india.

For some the islamic invasion is counted from the day bin qasim had crossed the khyber pass. Thats 0.0000000001% of the overall territory of greater india. But still some loonies see it as first conquest of india.

Even at the prime of Aurangzeb, the territory he actually controlled didnt cross 60%. That prime rule lasted for 30-40 years. But for some it was the entire india ruled by mughals for 1200 years. Highly exaggerated in terms of duration and area just like my school history books.

When the british left, large part of muslims expected that they should be given back the control of delhi. If a muslim was made the first pm of truely independent united india, it would have been seen as the equivalent to the restoration of mughal empire.

But the partition happened and Pakistan was created as a result. The entire mughal history was rolled back 1200 years to bin qasim days in just at a stroke of one midnight.

As of today shahi imam of delhi is still waiting for the coronation of the true badshah when he conquers the red fort again. Pakistan army has taken the identity of mughal heir not pakistan itself. He carefully passes on the control of delhi mosque to his mughal genes.

The true endgame lies in elimination of this identity. With balkanisation, the pakistan army's identity should vanish along with pakistan itself. It can be called sindh kpk whatever. But the identity should be killed.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Feb 2019 08:09

End game is Sustainable Goal #18 in the UN's list:
Depakistation* of the world

* Removal of all traces of infestation by Pakistani influences and tendencies such as self-inflation, irresistable antipathy towards mass-transit vehicles, fatal attraction to goats

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Cain Marko » 16 Feb 2019 08:56

In answer to the title of the thread, one option could be to have an arrangement with the US... supply us the hardware at friendship prices, pressure chineses on the east coast and we'll be happy to take the gwot off your hands as well as be a bulwark against China in the IOR.

Maybe even tie up with Afghanistan and Iran where needed.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 17 Feb 2019 05:16

Two blows or
One-Two punches to shatter the rotten state structure.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 17 Feb 2019 16:39

ramana wrote:Two blows or
One-Two punches to shatter the rotten state structure.

not sure how much background work has been done for this. These kind of things would require a lot of prep work! The last thing i want is that these jihadis coming in and infesting and then rotting the remaining apples.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 17 Feb 2019 16:41

Cain Marko wrote:In answer to the title of the thread, one option could be to have an arrangement with the US... supply us the hardware at friendship prices, pressure chineses on the east coast and we'll be happy to take the gwot off your hands as well as be a bulwark against China in the IOR.

Maybe even tie up with Afghanistan and Iran where needed.

We will have to do that. At the same time I dont think US is keen on containing china so early. They also need to support their MIC and keep civilizational supremacist narrative (that we crushed Nazis, unseated UK, defeated USSR and defeated a much larger china) alive.
US wont mind prokis being finished, but at the same time wont like to get their hands dirty or china being contained too early.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Austin » 17 Feb 2019 17:01

Interview with Lt Gen Hooda


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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Singha » 17 Feb 2019 17:52

Tsp agriculture has to be made to fail year after year to grind them into the dust

https://m.greaterkashmir.com/news/india ... 04132.html

We need to fund and finish these projects asap

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ricky_v » 17 Feb 2019 18:47

^yes to that. But most will still have able bodies to pick their nose and finger their goat, why not also push disease through their crops, water and air; also as they are off the vaccination program, virulent strains of polio, measles,mumps can also be introduced. Let the next gen of pakis be cross eyed mutants along with being inbred. Pesticide resistant organisms must be unleashed on their most profitable and their most consumable. Opioid crisis of us must be replicated there, making the public despondent. Its not about defeating the enemy, its about crippling them for life.
That would actually be worthwhile rather than the pointless cow raid attack that passes for trouble on the border right now.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Rajeev » 17 Feb 2019 19:10

World Community Must Finish Pakistan, As Its Behaviour Cannot Be Changed

https://medium.com/@Sanjay_Dixit/world- ... 96f1a1a8ce

Singha
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Singha » 17 Feb 2019 22:18

lets not forget a prolonged drought, fall in river waters led to the end of the moenjodaro civilization and migration of its people into the ganga - yamuna region which in that era was apparently sparesely populated.

Singha
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Singha » 17 Feb 2019 22:57

Bashir Ahmad Gwakh

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#Afghanistan - NDS forces seized 10,000 KG explosives and weapons in trucks that came from #Pakistan in cement bags. “7 people arrested in relations to various crimes & terror activities as well,” Nangarhar governor office said in a press release.

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