Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 19 Feb 2019 13:37

OT but are Iranians even interested in fighting or like to speak reams of poems on dagger to Satan and destroy Israel but hide behind terrorists of their own. I don't think they have the cojones to attack Pakistan irrespective of the provocation. Like India of before-Modi, they too publish their own dossiers and hand it over to Pakis.

With US tech, MBS money and Paki foot soldiers, Iran may be a gone case though in their mind, 'Hum to dubenge sanam, tumko bhi le dubenge"

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 19 Feb 2019 14:13

Some times sum of parts is greater, Islamists quite often tend to latch on to other waves

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 19 Feb 2019 15:22

ramana wrote:
.....
* Don't ask me who gave go ahead? I am fuzzy but think Pakistan would not have acted on own. And China is too involved in fighting off Orange. So by elimination whoever wants India in Afghanistan without paying the price.
IOW this still retains the World island idea by keeping out Russia from Afghanistan......

USA wanting india in AFG is obvious. I have been saying that for some time now.

Why would this happen if someone wants India in AFG? Maybe Pak did this to stop/delay India going to AFG? If India attacks and there is war, then going to AFG is atleast delayed and at best stopped from their POV?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 19 Feb 2019 17:40

If we have a corridor through our borders that serves many purposes apart from stabilizing afghanistan. Iran's support will be handy. The question is, is it the right time to get embroiled into this mess. The fact remains is Afghanistan is not a economically viable entity unless pakistan's influence is not completely destroyed. Again as UBCN op ed propounded , peace prosperity of this entire region lies in collapse of pakistan to a trivial entity

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Feb 2019 18:04

For all those who diss the Eyeranians, pls check out how Syria was won back from USA-Saudi-Turkey-Gelf-Israel-NATO Superpower Combine. The ground forces were mostly Iranian until the tattered Syrian Army could pick themselves off the ground. The air power was Russian. Draw your own analogies.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 19 Feb 2019 19:20

^^What does the yak herder think of poot-in and emperor xi's calculus in this new great game? I think xi is too occoupied with his own musharraf on fire with US and economy tanking. He would refrain from going out on advneture that may not go his way.
AS for Pootin, you did mention about something i touched briefly in earlier posts.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 19 Feb 2019 20:32

Per ramana, Emperor Eleven is not pleased with terroristan and may not be averse to a good soccer game being administered to the musharraf. Also that MBS is displeased, though I see no hopeful signs of that.
Eleven has "legitimate" interests in Balochistan, particularly Gwadar port. Not going to be easy to wrench free of that: major H&D involved. So I think a quiet 4-party deal is in order (Pootin, Eleven, NaMo, Ayatollah Whatzit) to reassure:
a) Cheen left un-bothered on Karakoran Hwy for now
b) Gwadar sea access for cheen guaranteed.
c) Land route: Cheen can go along from RYK to Gwadar.
d) Cheen sits on hands.

Other interests in Balochistan and POK and Northern Areas all subject to, well... realities.
Pootin: Largely popcornsky time. No direct involvement, except for a few missiles and Tu-22s on Ceremonial Cultural Exchange visits, to sort-of ensure that certain others do not attack Eyeran.

I don't know what is real MBS-Terroristan lovefest. Aren't Pakis flying KSAF planes already? There is/was some tummy upset about Pak not providing BOG to help out vs. Yemen. So the present $$$BBBailout may have that string attached. But whether MBS is happy at terroristan doing its usual thing in CashMore, is another matter.

Overall, the net effect of Pulwana is a (much) closer and more public Indo-Iranian alliance, which also means Iran gets a respected ally and hence a little bit of security enhancement. KSA cannot be happy with those who caused that. But will KSA be OK with the next steps? With the cursed shias exerting themselves in S. and N. Afghanistan, and in Balochistan?

Singhaji, shame the other dhaga got locked, but great history lessons on S. border of A'stan and W. border of Eyeran. Exactly what UBCN has been predicting.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 19 Feb 2019 23:01

How hard is it to get Baluch regiment and other Pathan regiments to revolt against rest of the Baki army? I think there are enough numbers to get Independent Baluchistan and Pashtunistan if they decided to revolt.

Ramu · Post by **Ramu** » 19 Feb 2019 23:11

Too many damaging things happen during peace time for us than terrorist attacks.

If we had a seat in UNSC, we could break them into 6 pieces or even gobble them up today. But one of our own sabotaged it few decades ago and it hurts even now.

I thought. all trade would be stopped after removing MFN status, jaitley dilutes it by announcing 200% increase in customs duty. If cement had 10% customs duty earlier, it will be 30% now. Pakistan is known to use cement bags for drugs and explosives via punjab. What percentage is going to stop them sending cement bags completely?

Security cover removed for some but not for all key persons. These guys must have got their cover during peace time. But Major gogoi gets roasted.

I must say the intensity and frequency of such peacetime sabotage has reduced drastically during NDA. UPA government acted as proxy ISI government. They are still doing things like an ISI proxy. So if UPA comes pack to power or even gain little ground, it will be another monumental peacetime blunder and people will be directly responsible for it. UPA and their every crony needs to be reduced even below 2014 level.

Article 370 & 35a repealing should come straight after elections.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 19 Feb 2019 23:30

SBajwa wrote:How hard is it to get Baluch regiment and other Pathan regiments to revolt against rest of the Baki army? I think there are enough numbers to get Independent Baluchistan and Pashtunistan if they decided to revolt.

good point. Based on waht we saw in south waziristan and swat, these guys would not hesitate in using disproportionate force. The only way would be a combination of internal+external both at multiple places. Similar to what was done to french defenses across maginot lines in ww2. All hardened, tanks staggered. Now this is where our large no.s and preferably indigenous MIC can play a role. They may have 1000s of ATGMS but those can be sabotaged internally. WIth large no.s of Tejas, after SEAD/DEAD by Su and Mig 27/jaguars if they are in busisness at that time, they will be hard pressed. Even with an inferior armour or specs as many would prefer. The sheer confusion regarding where the main thrust is would give them a hard time.
Another thing is, the action must be a blitzkreig, before them thinking that a Nuke/Nasr strike would deter the inevitable.
It has to have some khan involvement to prevent the loss in accounting of few nukes here and there for global peace. Although russians would do the same job in my preferred way to pakis but khan would make it easy just because they are very deeply entrenched in paki system, as compared to the ruskis.

All the above according to me would be only phase 1, Phase 2 would be urban battles worse than those in kashmir, or US fought in Iraq. That phase might take at least a decade with economic and cultural normalization phase followed or US would like to call "Nation/Democracy Building". Afterall, there are new history books required and who better than our own Guha and company. They can be used as a lab rats to see how certain test groups react when they are taught a different version of history. But that is for later. Before that there would be water sharing, border sorting and other things. But again these things can progress at Indian pace, like they did for Bangladesh. The phase 1 a, & b are most important. Rest all will fall through.

Regarding empelol she, we can guarantee that by that with Gwadar under Indian control, greater India would be a part of CPEC and hence no need to have further animosity. Win win situation. No loss of face for him. In return, we would not mind return of the part that was ceded.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 19 Feb 2019 23:32

Ramu wrote:
If we had ...blah blah..

We need to be optimists in this thread, crying over missed fish by stoneman is fine but let's move on and see what needs to be done in future

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2019 23:33

SBajwa wrote:How hard is it to get Baluch regiment and other Pathan regiments to revolt against rest of the Baki army? I think there are enough numbers to get Independent Baluchistan and Pashtunistan if they decided to revolt.

Those are in name only. All the ranks are filled with Pakjabis.
To prevent a revolt like East Bengal regiment during 1971 atrocities.

Read Emma Duncan 'Breaking the Curfew' written in 1990.

Ramu · Post by **Ramu** » 19 Feb 2019 23:43

I am still shaping up my thoughts. Please don't kill it yet. I consider this thread more important than every other TSP thread combined.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 19 Feb 2019 23:47

Ramu wrote:I am still shaping up my thoughts. Please don't kill it yet. I consider this thread more important than every other TSP thread combined.

this is not to suppress your thoughts, but to channelize them in right fashion. we all have given a lot of thought about past and present. I actually encourage you to read numerous posts by rudradev, ramana, and shiv to know well. But again, look to future in this thread, that is why this is in strategic issues and not military/history thread.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2019 23:49

However Ramu, I don't want Shalya type of posts.
To be fair there is a war going on in Kashmir.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 00:08

Ramana sir,
minor correction of the post, we need to accentuate that "A war HAS BEEN going on Kashmir for LAST TWENTY YEARS"

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 00:15

What I don't know is the depth of pro-Eyeran sentiment in s. Balochistan. Probably EZ enough for Eyeranians to supply the odd ATGM/ mine etc to make life interesting for PA there, like in the glory days before Shiekh Bugti was murdered. But beyond that? Serious demolition of PA control will have to be accompanied by swift takeover. I think all those places are like Wild West of US: population is in small pockets. Easy for a convoy of PA to come in and absolutely destroy a small village/town, and that's it, no subsistence for anyone else.

OTOH, if they start seeing Iranians appearing 100 km from Quetta, there is hope of serious all-out panic and rout-type downhill skiing from areas west.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 00:38

would pakis be having mechanised infantry there? but if they have it i wonder whats there on border with India? Can India and Iran have a joint military exercise of say a division in sistan balochistan say winters? Enough time to sort out logistics, land with equipment from reserves. I know brasstacks 2 would be an exaggeration, but what would they do if faced on Brasstacks 2 on their western border. Not sure if Iran would mind both gwadar and chabahar. Afterall they are not far off would help the two large economies that MBS asked Pakis to take help of.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 01:16

UlanBatori wrote:abba dabba jabba

UBji just saw on BBC, that US is rushing to pass sensitive Nuclear tech to MBS/KSA. Does that mean KSA won't need Pakis for Nukes, they anyways would have more reliable delivery platforms from elsewhere. Yes they would need pakis to fight for Iran, but that would be all the more easier if an Iran precipitates a collapse of pakistan. Not to forget KSA buys more ameriki weapons in the process

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 03:50

History of PA mechanized Infantry etc in those parts is not v. good. Losing 40, 50, 100 happened in a day or two. Usually they came back w/o knickers when the Balochi wimmens came out with their frying pans. They usually end up sending Eph-solahs to bomb the dirt-poor civilians. Then their usual "solution" is to send the Frontier Corpses (where apparently the BsOG are Balochi/Pashtun but aphsars are Pakjabi. That may be OK when the mission is to torture unarmed Balochi youths, but a very different ballgame is faced with Eyeranian irregulars with Syria/ Deir ez Zor experience. Pakis may lose not just knickers but mijjiles as well.

P.S. It's not "IS rushing". It is "rushed". All done. Soon Houthis will be carrying nukes

On nuke warheads, I will remind you of what the DC-based Paki refugee Editor (can't remember naam) wrote back in 2002 near the end of the nook-nood tamasha:

Crown Jewels are back in the hands of those who paid for them

Maybe gave to the yankees for safekeeping, though I doubt that. One thing I have to admit: the Barbarians are good at keeping secrets. I guess surety of the axe to the neck has a good influence on reticence. For all the rumors swirling of coups and MBS dead etc, it is clear that no one seems to have a clue what really goes on there. Not Wikileaks, not RT.com. No one.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 04:47

for all the yak dung that I have seen by mongolian yaks, this one is most incredulus. Pakis would give all their balls (eye of course) but not their nukes. Remember during abbottabad, gernail said, my nudes are under attack. But then he didnt know there's osama in Abbottabad either

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 20 Feb 2019 07:02

Ramu wrote:...
I thought. all trade would be stopped after removing MFN status, jaitley dilutes it by announcing 200% increase in customs duty. If cement had 10% customs duty earlier, it will be 30% now.

Duties have been increased to 200%, not by 200%. No madrasa mathematics involved here.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 07:24

APji, IIRC, w/ all doo respect, 2002 was in the Pre-AP era, hain? It is remarkable that u have heard of Car-Gill.

Seriously, that is a direct quote. If I dig in the ark-e-logical dung-heaps of Ulan Bator I can come up with the exact name and publication and date. Better still, u can look 4 an article around that time, titled "Has Pakistan Lost Its Nuclear Weapons?"

P.S. That might be a long search. Looks like See Ai Eh and RAA have Classified said article.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 07:43

Imran looks like he needs Pepto Bismol as he threatens retaliation if attacked. Bags under the eyes. Looks pale like someone coming out of an air raid shelter after 48 hours. Or after GUBO in Muridke or Pindi.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Feb 2019 10:54

UB, There are three to four Baloch factions. And depends on who they are proximate to. Also one faction is Islamist. On top there is a Pak faction called Jundullah carrying on Iran raids,
I once categorized them in the Balochistan thread.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 20 Feb 2019 13:17

Is Eyeraan really interested in creating trouble/Surgical strikes of its own at Paki border when it is slowly being surrounded by KSA led armies. I doubt if they openly want to sabotage their relationship with 'Ummah Birader' Pakistan.
Iranians might be crazy yahoos but Persians are not.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 15:25

UlanBatori wrote:APji, IIRC, w/ all doo respect, 2002 was in the Pre-AP era, hain? It is remarkable that u have heard of Car-Gill.
Seriously, that is a direct quote. If I dig in the ark-e-logical dung-heaps of Ulan Bator I can come up with the exact name and publication and date. Better still, u can look 4 an article around that time, titled "Has Pakistan Lost Its Nuclear Weapons?"

P.S. That might be a long search. Looks like See Ai Eh and RAA have Classified said article.

, ok you may be confusing the confusion of goat herders who equate nooclear bums with wisdom, balls, spine and what not. The rail minister of pakistan, seriously rail minister and a miniority minister in paki cabinet, has said that the fuljhadiyan are not for festivals. Is it the plausibility of deniability as was quoted in Independence day movie???Let's leave it here only. But but if it is true, the joke will still be on us. That after 26/11 we squeezed our and not their balls, in cricket of course. In true secular spirit of BRF, I would say Inshallah you are right

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 21:01

No wisdom assumed: it was based on reported facts of the time, including some from inside Kahuta (anyone knows, DO NOT repeat here pls). The weppuns may have returned post-2002. But the reason to introduce this here was simply to convey that "who paid for them" took them back for safekeeping. Do you imagine Eleven's generous predecessors actually GIVING nukes free to anyone (OK, to Kim1-3 may be an exception). It is not "who supplied them" but "who paid for them". Which suggests that KSA took them when it became evident that they would be seized by others.

As for "26/11", imagine that the GOI being TFTA, actually sent in, say, an airstrike on Muridke (HQ of LeT) to show Our Toughness. Immortalized in the smash hit movie "TAJ" (it has to be 3-letter for Twits to read). IMO, the real" provocation" for Pulwana was the sheer rage and jealosy induced by the box office hit or a similar 3-letter name, but let's not go there.

What behavioral change do you think would have resulted? If the strike was ineffective and suffered losses because they expected it, it would be seen as a Victory For The Brave And Innocent Victims of Yindoo Aggression. We could yell ourselves hoarse with "Look Look! EVIDENCE! David Headless was really Dawood Geelani!" and no one would pay the slightest heed. So, sorry, much as I too would have liked to see the SATISFACTION of an immediate response, all those responses would have been ineffective in behavioral improvement.

Behavioral Improvement (BI) requires Winning Hearts and Minds. As explained in "Yes Minister". And right now I would say, the situation in Balochistan (of course where India has ****NO*** role at all except human sympathy for the SHIA victims of SUNNI Pakjabi repression, genocide and torture) is moving right along towards the recipe for Winning Hearts and Minds. The vice is slowly tightening.

Which is why Imran looks like he returned from GUBO and is suffering from severe PeptoBismol Deficiency. His Heart and Mind are being won by India and Iran.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 21:08

BTW, UBCN takes full credit for the BI. I think Indian **NON*** interference in Balochistan started not long after u-no-hu started or instigated the dhaga called "Balochistan_ Another PA Genocide".

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Feb 2019 21:54

UB the four fathers model is morphing into something else.

Husband = Anglo-Saxon West (UK, US)
Wife = KSA (Wahhabi, Oil wealth, Wifrid Scawen plan etc)
Interloper = China
Illegal Child of Wife and Interloper = Pakistan

Now Pakistan maintenance is by China (real father) and Wife (KSA)
The Husband realized the child is listening to Interloper.
Hence cuts of funds.

I think we can identify who in China maintains the Pakis.
They deal only with hardcore fundoos in Pak Army.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 22:07

^^UB ji this is where I say, I have no response to the horse/yak running mongols. Only time can tell whether you're saying is 10000% pure yak milk or 100%yak dung. Either ways, I yearn that someday we find out. Who knows they may be crowing about it so that Indians remain scared about Nukes while they go about BAU..and that is why no one has done it actually, with pakis the possibilities are huge. AFIAR, they returned the cakes from where it came but they succeeded in making bum. But if they didnt that fully explains why they are so bent on fulfilling the bhutto prophecy of ghas kha lenge but bum banayenge. Ghas eating was always their first goal. No more on this from me.

Coming to axis of India Iran do you see Chinese making too much noise. Because not only their gwadar goes kaput (ok it may exist as a trading port), but the overlapping proximity protection to djibouti goes away. Won't it be against wuhan spirit?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2019 22:40

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Feb 2019 23:13

Won't it be against wuhan spirit?

In the rong lun, the best strategy there is bissful coexistence/PanchaSheel with Eleven. Put 1000s of UCAVs on Himalayan border, but be nice to cheen and let them use Gwadar as a Great Meeting Point Of East and Middle East. Iranian oil to go north from Gwadar, cheen trinkets to go to ME from Gwadar. A latter-day Dholavira/ Dvaraka. In return, India also gets to use Karakoram Hwy freely to connect to the Silk Route through Xinjiang to Russia - not to forget the Center Of the Dunia, Mongolia.

Isn't this capitulation? Yeah, but right now, focus on dismanting terroristan while keeping cheen relations stable/ growing.

A time will come when Northern Arunachal/ Himachal and Xinjiang will become Interesting. Until then, quit bissing at cheen, accept them as Other Big Dawg in the neighborhood. Elsewhere I hear that Taiwan- Mainland tamasha is getting more interesting. Once DT and Thin One do their second Summit in Hanoi (think of the irony as well as the thumb-nose of that) tensions with NoKo may ease - and Eleven's ire will rise - enough that there is high likelihood of a bissing contest in the Taiwan Ocean and Vietnam Ocean.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Eleven may be in Mongolian neighborhood improving Gobi Infrastructure.

So I say, Recognize Chinese Interests and Sensitivities in Gwadar and Karakoram Hwy. Screw the rest of their interests in POK, Northern Areas & Balochistan. They can keep the Smelly Rose Massage Parlor And Espionage Center in Islamabad.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 20 Feb 2019 23:49

Speaking of chinese as ramana guru mentioned, is china monolithic when it comes to India? I can see three parties.
1. CPC
2. PLA and its associated branches
3. Common public, including fanboys.

Ramana/chola, i am characterizing these parties so that we can understand whom to prioritize and play against and how to manage them during this end game of napakistan. Treat this as my dissertation for the review of forum

1. CPC:
a. knows India is the only challenger to their hegemony in the region. Knows how to bide time, prods pla to needle india from time to time. Focus on other areas
b. Needs a face saver when trapped in a situation (should we care that, esp after NSG, Dokalam and JeM)
c. Used to play long game, but under xi has gone into slog mode
d. Full of old hands
e. huge dependence on xi
f. make good Use of their semi-muscular diplomacy
For a paki solution: what would be the give and take
key discussion items would be: POK, COK, Areas ceded to them by pakis and CPEC. What do we give and what do we keep. I think for POK, rest of the items would have to be agreed with. The question is what if they offer to settle the boundary dispute then, including their so called right to sikkim or even with bhutan? My view point is that discussion should be kept for some other day by those discussing it.

2. PLA:
a. Under CPC control mostly. May act on its own here and there, like during xis gujarat visit, possibly dokalam too
b. New equippment, inexperienced soldier, large number, good as a deterrent
c. contributes a lot to chinese hard power
d. a loss, even if short, may actually blow the steam of chinese hard power
What role would they play. Esp, given their most loyal slave will get beaten and they will be confined to some sea borders to east or on land/sea on west where India may have an long disadvantage. Do we open up the question of tibet again

4. General public
a. For most India does no register, most are friendly to indians at least in public, obviously things change when there's a war
b. Have little influence on political outcomes. But can switch sides
c. Fanboys may be paid sometimes.
Nothing to worry

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 21 Feb 2019 00:33

The only major Shia ethnic group in Afghan are the Hazaras and they are in central Aghn not south.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Feb 2019 01:46

Relevant here

Singha wrote:incredibly complex tableau of warlike hordes crisscrossing the blessed land from all sides.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Afghanistan

the seleucids, safavids, kushans, mauryans, ghurids probably enforced some periods of "stability" and "law and order" - these were empires who sought to keep a stable situation not just roam around and plunder in a scorched earth policy.

rest of it is pretty sketchy.....gents like mihirakula the hun who unleashed a reign of terror in north india was a alumni of sorts. its strange where he became a shaivite hindu perhaps some kashmiri pandit met him on his meandering journeys of plunder.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Feb 2019 01:49

Singha,

Looks like the real great wall through the ages is the Himalayas mountains and the Indus River from the Mongol Empire map.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Feb 2019 05:38

very happy today.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 21 Feb 2019 06:11

ramana wrote:very happy today.

Why saar? What happened to make you so happy?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 21 Feb 2019 09:55

Supratik wrote:The only major Shia ethnic group in Afghan are the Hazaras and they are in central Aghn not south.

Hazaras got massacred in Mazar-e-Sharif (?) as I recall - and they were basically Iran-pasand ppl. OTOH, Afghan Northern Alliance (Dostum et al) also had significant shia component. AFAIK (which is not much), shia-sunni relations in A'stan were better than in most of the Ummah, until the Paki Taliban came to power - then they started pogroms/massacres against shias.

I think Pakis who surrendered at Mazar-e-sharif were taken in containers into the desert by the kind Gen. Dostum.

So my point is that Iranian influence is strong even in central Afghanistan, if Hazaras are in central A'stan.

Kandahar seems to be Taliban stronghold, but that is due to proximity of one of the big passes. I bet south of Kandahar, at the border with Balochistan, ppl are mostly shia. So all in all, there is considerable fraternal sympathy between iran and ppl of south A'stan, enough to get an invitation to sit there and beat the **** out of the Pakis in Balochistan.