1) The Chinese have to expend large amounts of fuel and capital to project any influence in Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh with little to gain.
which is why they are in Pakistan and Gwadar in the first place.
Well they have still done it. Capital was the least of chinese worries and it will be so unti the bubble starts bursting. As for gain, economic yes little. But militarily, keeping India engaged in their own backyard is a strong reason for them to stay invested. They will continue to do so unless there is a massive economic collapse like that due to great leap forward. Again the point where we started was Balochis can manage themselves, we can support them in the process. No need for us to keep an army there. We can be net security cover provider but not US like holding forces over there for nation building.
banrjeer wrote:2) Also Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal don't share borders with radicalized people.
They had enough Nepal, SL & BD had enough military problems of varied nature. Not necessarily radicalized but millitancy was a problem. BD may be the least but under Zia it was a nuisance for us. Not that it was major but still. Again, just as these countries have managed without material Indian military presence, they have survived. New splinters will survive too.
banrjeer wrote:3) Iran is preoccupied westwards squandering power, barking up the wrong tree with Israel. Let's not assume this will always last.
In the US world order, that will be the case. We are not talking of a 100 year scenario. Even if it changes, it's impact on our direct interests needs to be seen. Even if it starts looking eastwards, assuming it will reach the boundaries to today's India will be a stretch. Even more will be to challenge India militarily. There's huge buffer through balochistan and sindh. Not to forget, Iran has to be and will be an important part of the endgame. There's no way it can be left without a bounty. GIven the current situation, I doubt it would part with any land in Balochistan sistan for any other land. That's a good reason why Iranians might be wary of any endgame. Do they absorb entire Balochistan? Not possible, under US world order. So some give and take needs to be worked out. That will be a question for future stage. Pakis are a problem for them too. This much both India and Iran would agree and move forward to solve for now. Remaining questions are best answered in future, including the future of Chinese investments in Gwadar and other places.
banrjeer wrote:As for POK eventually yes, but India has mismanaged there, hobbled with artlcle 370 and and face-off with China. It's better to have a clean start elsewhere to serve as an example even to Kashmiris. After any trauma, Pakjabis will need a comfy security blanky when they sleep and suck their thumbs.
Again whats the point, POK needs to come to India to ensure a stable access to our rivers and Afghania, period. When pak problem is gone, so will be 370 and other associated regulations. That is essential for Afghan stabilization and that will happen. When does 370 end, if modi comes with full majority, next term just before pakistan's burial.