Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

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DharmaB
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby DharmaB » 15 Aug 2019 22:00

What is going to happen in next 6 months to 1 year in pak, if the situation at Indian side of LOC remains peaceful by and large ?

I remember reading in 90's which goes on saying that, there were reports on pak army about it turning more and more greener in their ranks (with beards) at aphsar level. Earlier pak army aphsars were more professional and of western style (without beards). If that was true, by this time there should be many extreme radical elements in pak army at high positions. What will be the reaction from those elements if there was no action from Dimran and Bajwa after India done with 370. Will it cause a mutiny in pak army which will lead to a coup?

In that case what are the likely scenarios that may emerge and what are the options for India?

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Sep 2019 13:02

^^dharmaji, the reaction has been quite subdued from bajwa and dimran. Beyond shouting kashmir banega pakistan and in UNGA they havent done much at all. On the ground they might be planning for something through high profile terror attacks. Oct-Nov would be very interesting to watch, as festival season and right time for war fighting. I think paki army is putting the narrative that they are a aman pasand quam...after doing wars and terrorism for many decades

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Sep 2019 13:09

meanwhile india has turned the tide and news narrative on how to retake pakistan. Govt position has been quite consistent on this in last 6 months...
a very sang froid piece on
https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... rspective/

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 27 Sep 2019 13:34

DharmaB wrote:What is going to happen in next 6 months to 1 year in pak, if the situation at Indian side of LOC remains peaceful by and large ?

I remember reading in 90's which goes on saying that, there were reports on pak army about it turning more and more greener in their ranks (with beards) at aphsar level. Earlier pak army aphsars were more professional and of western style (without beards). If that was true, by this time there should be many extreme radical elements in pak army at high positions. What will be the reaction from those elements if there was no action from Dimran and Bajwa after India done with 370. Will it cause a mutiny in pak army which will lead to a coup?

In that case what are the likely scenarios that may emerge and what are the options for India?

paki army has shown no indication of coup this time around..they are happy to have imran take all the albatrosses around his neck and be the goat..all failures are imran's as he's ruling the country. Paki army knows the limitations of its war machine against a belligerent India. My sense is they are playing the waiting game for someone like vajapayee or a congi govt to return to their offensive mode

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 19 Feb 2020 05:37

About 10 years ago I wrote in GDF:

ramana wrote:
Action plan:

- Non-war collapse is the best option after taking into account all the constraints
- Increase Indian economy in order to
- Increase funds to support other aspects of action plan
- Increase IM stake in India
- Stabilize Afghanistan
A stable Afghanistan will divert Pak resources militarily, economically and culturally.
Include aid to Afghanistan as line item in Indian budget as part of MEA
Increase Afghan training in Indian academies- civil and military
- Create de-facto cordon around Pakistan
Include the countries in the immediate neighborhood and immediate area and reduce Pakistan influence in the area: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal
- Take all measures short of war to reduce Pakistan
Economic (trade, commerce and water, diplomatic and cultural


Action plan contd:

- Increase Indian military preparedness
- Increase IBG deployments to 10. Reduce Strike corps mobilization time or relocate in forward areas
- Increase IAF squadron strength to handle two front war to preclude PRC intervention
- Increase IN ship strength for enforcing a cordon sanitaire to mitigate fallout
- Integrate internal security apparatus with military as required
- Diplomatic offensive to lull and manage a fait accompli
- Engage US in talks and PRC in other areas
- Prepare action plan for post-Pakistan region
Comprehensive and implementable
Union territory status for broken up areas for thirty years to be reviewed every ten years. Final goal is reincorporation.
Governors will be appointed with consent
Reorganize NWFP as Pashtunistan Union Territory with contiguous areas from Baloch and Punjab.
Reconciliation commission comprised of senior officers from three services of both countries to re-integrate the armed forces


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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Y. Kanan » 19 Feb 2020 06:57

When you visit BRF in 2050, look for these threads on the front page:

-Managing Pakistan's imminent collapse
-Understanding the US
-Terroristan-2050
-List of victims of Terrorist attacks in India
-W. Bengal Union Territory-2050

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby fanne » 19 Feb 2020 08:47

nope, I believe TSP is done. We have to help the process to make it faster

ArjunPandit
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Feb 2020 15:56

Y. Kanan wrote:When you visit BRF in 2050, look for these threads on the front page:

-Managing Pakistan's imminent collapse
-Understanding the US
-Terroristan-2050
-List of victims of Terrorist attacks in India
-W. Bengal Union Territory-2050

kananji
not sure i will be alive by 2050...but how about two of us having a bet on this...i have been a teetotaler mostly..but this is one of the exception cases i ..if you are here on BRF..i will treat you..

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Feb 2020 18:06

ramana wrote:About 10 years ago I wrote in GDF:

ramana wrote:
Action plan:

- Non-war collapse is the best option after taking into account all the constraints
AP:Agreed
- Increase Indian economy in order to
- Increase funds to support other aspects of action plan
- Increase IM stake in India
AP:Done/wip
- Stabilize Afghanistan
AP:Seems less likely anytime soon under things change dramatically
A stable Afghanistan will divert Pak resources militarily, economically and culturally.
Include aid to Afghanistan as line item in Indian budget as part of MEA
Increase Afghan training in Indian academies- civil and military
AP:Done/Ongoing
- Create de-facto cordon around Pakistan
AP:WIP
Include the countries in the immediate neighborhood and immediate area and reduce Pakistan influence in the area: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and
Nepal
AP:Seems less likely given the china factor has increased cost to it
- Take all measures short of war to reduce Pakistan
Economic (trade, commerce and water, diplomatic and cultural
AP: All ongoing.

Action plan contd:

- Increase Indian military preparedness
AP:WIP, but massive backlog
- Increase IBG deployments to 10. Reduce Strike corps mobilization time or relocate in forward areas
AP:WIP, but massive backlog
- Increase IAF squadron strength to handle two front war to preclude PRC intervention
AP:Doesnt seem an urgency on this front
- Increase IN ship strength for enforcing a cordon sanitaire to mitigate fallout
AP:Doesnt seem an urgency on this front
- Integrate internal security apparatus with military as required
AP:Dont think i agree to it, but there are steps in positive direction, NIA, etc
- Diplomatic offensive to lull and manage a fait accompli
AP:Steps in right direction
- Engage US in talks and PRC in other areas
[b]AP:US on right track, China: not sure, KSA and other powers: Positive direction,
[/b] - Prepare action plan for post-Pakistan region
Comprehensive and implementable
Union territory status for broken up areas for thirty years to be reviewed every ten years. Final goal is reincorporation.
Governors will be appointed with consent
Reorganize NWFP as Pashtunistan Union Territory with contiguous areas from Baloch and Punjab.
Reconciliation commission comprised of senior officers from three services of both countries to re-integrate the armed forces
AP:Dont think annexation will be taken up that well..fait accompli or not..its a bigger threat/challenge to 'world peace'. Please see, my suggested solution on internal strife in pakistan

Ramana guru how prophetic..and how the ball has been set rolling in last few years..including recent reorgs..have put my comments on this...

my viewpoint (not thoroughly thought through yet) on the economy part is that it certainly eases...there will never be enough money to burn the pigs or like Pablo escobar to burn notes to warm kids....perhaps when we'll have future generations might be like germans/britards ...neutered....so the best time to precipitate this is sooner than later....
IMHO ..tejas, mirage, mig 29 in large no.s coupled with large no.s of desi arti are enough to make a thorsque 'dash to Indus' and to RYK...we dont need gold plated items to cut this jungle...

Additionally, we have to curate internal disturbances in Pakistan along with players that can be made to played against each other.....like we have curated in Kashmir..PDP and NC... That is because, we need non military politicos to further democracy. Afghan experiment by US makes me think int'l import may not work best..but we have to try out a combination..we have to have a long term will and desire to sort things out..like we demonstrated in Kashmir and NE mess that we created.

The execution strategy could be
-salami slicing, like PoK next, then GB and whatever we could comes next over decades/generations
-or we could do a full and final settlement in one go..

while i want to latter. Given the way things are evolving..to me salami slicing seems more likely...this is a change of mind in light of statements by CDS, CoAS.
we are in endgame of Pakistan but unfortunately the delay of S400 puts the plans at beind a few years...who knows Russia might be switching sides to switch sides later. In the end, Pakistan mess was created 80 years back(at least in minds of people)..but the creation process started only over a period of 40 years (at least on the face of it)..

a post army pakistan needs to be imagined..so using some of the words of dim India created pakistan will be the only 'naya pakistan' that will be a 'behtar pakistan' so isliye humain 'ghabrana nahin hai'.

Based on what I hear from pakis in al bartania, their == is in their minds..it is quite bad..we will have to monitor policing ..we might see insurgencies..and other things...
we should thank US to expose many of their tactics in iraq and afghanistan...

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 19 Feb 2020 21:33

I just wanted to focus on what a big picture looks like and am glad to report majority of the things chalked out is happening.

Rest is tactical execution.
There will be milestone slips based on making resources available.
But over all plan is going smoothly.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 19 Feb 2020 21:35

Y. Kanan wrote:When you visit BRF in 2050, look for these threads on the front page:

-Managing Pakistan's imminent collapse
-Understanding the US
-Terroristan-2050
-List of victims of Terrorist attacks in India
-W. Bengal Union Territory-2050



Kanan if you feel so negatively shouldn't you re-examine your presence here at all?

All I can say is wake up and feel the optimism.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Feb 2020 22:20

ramana wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:When you visit BRF in 2050, look for these threads on the front page:

-Managing Pakistan's imminent collapse
-Understanding the US
-Terroristan-2050
-List of victims of Terrorist attacks in India
-W. Bengal Union Territory-2050



Kanan if you feel so negatively shouldn't you re-examine your presence here at all?

All I can say is wake up and feel the optimism.

i need him to say we told you so....

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 26 Feb 2020 00:35

Rekindling few areas on this thread
0. What are different scenarios of napakistan end as in geographic ways, how would the new states look like
1. How would water division be done with new states under each scenario
2. Who would be the potential political stakeholders in each of the new states, that would be aligned to India and hostile to India. Has india curated them adequately.
3. what will be the new structure of Indian military: Would we still need a multi million military or we shift from IA dominated to IN/IAF dominated military. How much force Would we need to keep there? Would it make sense to have UN
4. What would happen to the chinese investments in pakistan.
5. What happens to paki nukes ( if they are still there...)

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 26 Feb 2020 00:50

some historical context of unrest in pakistan
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article ... -pakistans
HE first overthrow of a civilian government in Pakistan took place as early as August 22 1947, with the country just a few days old.

The dismissal of Dr Khan Sahib’s popularly elected North West Frontier Province government — today’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — paved the way for military dictatorships that followed.

This early political failure shows why a sense of historical perspective is needed to make a different Pakistan today.

On September 30 1955 four provinces (Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh) merged with several tribal areas and smaller states to form West Pakistan, while East Bengal was renamed East Pakistan.

Pakistan’s “One Unit Policy” from 1955 to 1970, sought to create West Pakistan as a counterweight to East Pakistan’s Bengali majority in today’s Bangladesh.

The capital of West Pakistan moved from Karachi in Sindh to Lahore in the heart of Punjab.

Punjabi dominance of the new state meant erasing the identity of other cultures and nationalities.

When General Yahya Khan ended the One Unit Policy on July 1 1970, Pakistan’s political outlook remained grim with martial law and weak civilian government overshadowed by military interventions, which continue up to the present day under Imran Khan’s premiership.

In a speech to the UN general assembly on September 22 2019 and in media interviews, Prime Minister Khan has formally admitted that since the 1980s Pakistan trained mojahedin, al-Qaida and Taliban for jihad [holy war] in Afghanistan.

According to Khan, the CIA funded this training until the coming to power in Afghanistan of the Taliban. Khan admitted that joining the “war on terror” after 9/11 has cost 70,000 Pakistani lives and £115 billion.

Pakistanis are grateful to Khan for these confessions, but he neglected to mention the victims’ nationality.

Almost all the 70,000 dead were Pashtuns from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. Likewise, Khan neglected to mention that almost the entire £115 billion came from the same sources.

Since its birth Pakistan has been mired in socio-political and economic crises; periodic martial law, wars with India, loss of 55 per cent of the country’s population following Bangladeshi independence in 1971, and an estimated 90,000 Pakistani soldiers captured by India as prisoners of war.

Rising poverty, unemployment and the unresolved national question should have led to investment and industrialisation, to develop our country’s different nations.

Instead, Pakistan’s rulers ignored the working class and promoted Islam to enforce ideological unity, although religion is merely one facet of nationhood.

The loss of 55 per cent of her population threatened legal and political legitimacy, but represented an opportunity to forge a new social contract.

Unfortunately, no efforts were made, nor lessons learned.

Ruling-class arrogance, indifference and ignorance of consequences characterises Pakistan’s mainly Punjabi civil and military establishment, which habitually resorts to strong-arm tactics.

Military dictatorship and internal military operations to quell civil unrest, from Balochistan in the 1970s to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa today, have made Pakistan a quasi-military state.

Punjabi dominance also created a deep state, invisible to most Pakistanis but controlled through US military aid, intelligence agencies and the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers and police forces.

In reality, Pakistanis are ruled with an iron fist through largely invisible power structures based in Punjab. This results in very different standards of justice and attitudes of the state and its organs towards Pakistan’s nations and classes.

In October 1947, when 20,000 Pashtun tribesmen invaded Kashmir alongside Pakistan’s armed forces conquering a third of Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan — with over 6,000 killed and 4,000 wounded — they were honoured as Pakistan’s bravest patriots.

When US-sponsored mojahedin confronted Soviet troops in Afghanistan from December 1979 to February 1989, the land of the Pashtuns was used by Pakistan as a launch-pad for that war.

The tribal belt was again crowned with the title of most hospitable with the bravest defenders of Islam and Pakistan.

However after 9/11, when Pashtun tribes refused to co-operate with the Pakistani state and its pro-US agenda, the army deployed aerial bombardment and heavy weapons in the tribal areas, destroying homes and marketplaces and murdering innocent men, women and children.

Many disappearances took place and tribal peoples’ history and social, cultural and economic life were uprooted in Waziristan, Malakand and Swat Valley.

Pakistan’s state-controlled media defends and glorifies military operations against civilians and bans public debate on questions of nationhood and language.

However, when the issue of Kashmir arises, the state opportunistically praises Pashtun bravery, since using Pashtuns for war and violence is accepted state policy.

Since 2005 over 70,000 Pashtun Pakistanis have lost their lives, many of them elderly, women and children. Not a single case was publicly condemned by the state or media.

Compare this horrific statistic to the blanket coverage of several notorious killings in 2019 in Punjab. Salah ud Din, a young man with mental health problems was murdered in police custody.

Zainab Ansari, a young girl was abducted, raped and murdered. Mohammad and Nabila Khalil and their 13-year-old daughter, Areeba, were executed by police who were allegedly targeting a terrorist.

These cases were treated with exemplary importance and state-controlled media demanded justice for the victims. Such a media response only applies in Punjab, not to thousands of cases of police killings of Pashtuns, the nation to which I belong.

Instead of economic development and compensation for war-affected areas, the onslaught against Pashtuns intensified. The abduction and extra-judicial murder of Naqibulla Masood on January 13 2018 in Karachi by a police superintendent, Rao Anwar, was a flashpoint that united Pashtuns in a historic protest.

Even so, Rao Anwar went free. We were told the police superintendent is “like a son” to Pakistan’s former president Zardari.

But how is it possible for the state to send Zardari to jail and yet permit Rao Anwar to remain free?

Last year Nasir Hussain from Kurram district also died from torture in police custody. Not a single report appeared in the state-controlled media.

When Anwar-ul Haq, a resident of Swabi, was killed in a staged police shootout in August 2018, Pakistan’s state media also remained silent.

In Loralae district, Balochistan, Professor Arman Loni, a supporter of our Pashtun Tahafuz [Protection] Movement (PTM), was beaten to death by police during a protest rally against state terrorism.

For two months, police not only refused to register the death, but also arrested those demanding Arman Loni’s case be officially registered.

In Peshawar, during a political rally Haroon Bilor, the provincial spokesperson of the Awami National Party (ANP), and 22 other activists were murdered in a terrorist bomb attack — no suspect was arrested nor was the act of terrorism investigated.

In November 2018, senior Pashtun police officer Tahir Dawar was kidnapped in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.

His mutilated corpse was found days later in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s official media and the state both treated this extraordinary event as relatively unimportant.

The Prime Minister promised justice, but as of today, no investigation has been set up.

A few months ago, the president of ANP in Peshawar district was murdered in broad daylight, without a word of condemnation from Pakistani state officials or media.

Even more tragically on May 26 2019 in North Waziristan military forces fired on a PTM protest gathering and 15 PTM supporters were killed and at least 31 others injured in the massacre.

Mohsin Dawar and Ali Wazir, both elected National Assembly members, were arrested, detained in prison and mistreated while their trial hearing was delayed.

Most tragic of all was the Taliban massacre of 149 people (including 132 schoolchildren) at the Army Public School in Peshawar on 16 December 2014.

Incredibly, the Taliban’s mastermind, Ehsanullah Ehsan, who was arrested two years ago, is still held in army custody without public trial.

Pashtuns are treated as mere statistics in police killings, or terrorist bombings in Pakistan.

This ethnic cleansing of Pashtuns is a well-planned but never-admitted state policy.

In North and South Waziristan, local houses were bulldozed in military operations against the Taliban, leaving women and children without shelter and vulnerable in deserted villages.

More than 8,000 young Pashtuns have been picked up by security agencies. Many are still held in custody. Local markets have been destroyed, and schools and colleges closed for several years.

These actions by Pakistan’s army are forcing Pashtuns out of their villages making them Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) and facing food and other insecurities.

In 2009 army operations in Malakand forced 3,000,000 people to become IDPs.

Punjabi army personnel were deployed in a deliberate policy intended to sow fear and persuade Pashtuns to accept Punjabis as their masters, although thousands of Pashtuns are enlisted in Pakistan’s army .

For Pakistan’s state security agencies, the Pashtun Protection Movement has committed a crime simply by sharing these facts with the people.

Despite PTM’s demands for landmine clearance to protect civilians, particularly children, the state refuses to acknowledge this as a human rights issue.

PTM demands that the thousands of Pashtuns arrested by intelligence agencies be brought to court or released.

PTM has demanded fact-finding and conflict resolution commissions, but the state arrested and imprisoned elected National Assembly members Ali Wazir and Mohsin Dawar and refused to free them, while other National Assembly members from central Punjab and Sindh provinces were released from prison in 2019 to attend a parliamentary session.

In Khyber Pukhtunkhwa almost all industrial zones have stopped work. Factory buildings lie deserted, leaving skilled workers without the means to live with dignity. Government employees’ salaries remain unpaid. PTM is demanding compensation for those who suffer financially and materially.

The reality of two Pakistans is abundantly clear. The dangerous aspect of this state policy of control and subjugation of Pashtun land is that a Taliban operating under state control is reorganising from Waziristan up to Bunir. Targeted bomb blasts and kidnappings have started again.

Repression against PTM and Pashtun nationalist parties, while allowing terrorists to reorganise, is the consequence of two Pakistans. Our Pakistan is full of misery, war, terror and violence. PTM rose up against this discriminatory policy and we will continue until this discrimination ends. Our demands are simple. We want peace in our land.

PTM is committed to the principle that Pashtuns do not accept undemocratic, unconstitutional rule, nor do we accept the Taliban as representatives of the Pashtuns, or rulers of our land.

PTM demands that the international community shows solidarity with the Pashtuns. The UN thus far has ignored the tragedy of the Pashtuns over the last 15 years.

Equally, progressive parties of the left have not responded to our plight.

International media organisations in the West cover events in the Middle East, but never our tragedy when Pakistan bombs its own people.

It is time the international community (including the UN) demands that Pakistan rehabilitates the Pashtun people and compensates them for the damage inflicted by the state.

Pashtuns will never forget the tragedies of terrorism and atrocities committed during Pakistan’s internal military operations. Our struggle continues for the elimination of the two Pakistans, so that we can all can live in peace and prosperity as citizens of one Pakistan.

PTM plans further public protests to expose this invisible suffering. Pakistanis are rising up. As Pashtun philosopher, poet and politician Ghani Khan wrote: “Pashtuns are a rain-sown wheat: they all came up on the same day; they are all the same. But the chief reason why I love a Pashtun is that he will wash his face, oil his beard, perfume his locks and put on his best pair of clothes when he goes out to fight and die.”

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 26 Feb 2020 01:02

ArjunPandit wrote:Rekindling few areas on this thread
2. Who would be the potential political stakeholders in each of the new states, that would be aligned to India and hostile to India. Has india curated them adequately.

Building over the last 2 posts a very basic
1. Pashtuns, in KPK area. Political party PTM
2. Sindh: Muhajirs-altaf hussain (if he still exists on ground), hindus
3. Punjab: Shia/Sikhs.
4. Balochistan would perhaps be the easiest one. in fact it could serve as a base for it. BRA, funny choice of name though.
However, any actions needs to be supported with a protracted deployment on borders. Could we see the forward deployment of cold start in that light..that should internal fissures appear in pakistan we can take seize the moment?

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Mort Walker » 26 Feb 2020 09:45

Y. Kanan wrote:When you visit BRF in 2050, look for these threads on the front page:

-Managing Pakistan's imminent collapse
-Understanding the US
-Terroristan-2050
-List of victims of Terrorist attacks in India
-W. Bengal Union Territory-2050


You forgot to add:
-MRCA Acquisition
-LCA Tejas
-Arjun
-Kaveri
-AMCA Development

:lol: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 26 Feb 2020 11:40

From Harpreet or Cest Moiz or kancha

/Harpreet, What if Jihad-e-fistula surrenders? Think hard./

Ramana Ji and others, here are my thoughts on this. Am writing these on the go, so pardon if these appear a bit disjointed.
Firstly, there is no doubt that the PA has to be shown its place if there is to be peace inside our borders. And by showing them their place, I don't mean another 1971 wherein bulk of the Pak army was left unmolested by us not pushing harder in to West Pakistan. This time what is needed is utter and complete humiliation, if not outright decimation.
The red herring in this is the US, as they always have been - right from Parliament to Kaluchak to even 26/11 attacks. This time again, DT is looking for a 'successful' exit from Afg ahead of his re-election bid. Pakis know that too and are going to be negotiating tough with the Amreekis. They know that with DT looking for an honourable exit, they hold the cards, and rightly so. BUT .. just imagine for a while the kind of deal that DT will be able to extract with a Pakistan Army that is WEAK, and tottering on the edge!
Let me elaborate upon that a bit - DT will be the last person to open another front, militarily, in Pakistan. But through economic pressure from the USA, AND, perhaps military pressure from India, Pakis will dance merrily to whatever tune is played to them. I don't think the Pakis, or for that matter, even India or the US have gamed such a scenario.
But knowing the Pakis, they will soon get cocky enough and do something stupid in the wake of this CAA drama et al and there's a good chance they will themselves give us an opening to do so.
Now coming to the question of a surrender by the Brown Panted ones. I doubt they will do so, atleast not without coming close to using their crown jewels, even if tactical ones only. In case a surrender actually happens, it will be the end of them, and of Pakistan as we know it.
What I see, or rather, pray for, is a fresh round wherein they are unable to get away with obfuscation as they did in the wake of the F-16 loss. Let us be the aggressors and let us cease fire, leaving the onus for further escalation upon them. In case they choose to revisit as they did on Feb 27, I am sure this time there will be no more face saving exit.
The template I am looking at (short of an all-out war) is of us hammering them, and in case they return, hammering them some more.
Plus a revisit of Operation Kabaddi (google it) may not be a far-fetched possibility either. Optics are extremely important too. 'Land for Terror' comes to mind.
Bottomline: Let the Pakistan Army end up fighting for its survival WITHIN its borders rather than across, with a little help from us of course. Whether they surrender or not, is up to them. And knowing them, we all know how they will end up downhill skiing and signing 'peace' deals with all and sundry, leaving open further grounds for us to keep them busy.
Imagine the kind of deal that DT will be able to extract with such a situation inside Pakistan.
China will take atleast a few years to recover from this coronavirus thing. The window of opportunity for us is NOW. In fact, a lot of big ticket defence acquisitions are soon coming to fruition as well. One only hopes that things behind the curtains are equally rosy as well.
The tweet quoted above with this message is what I tweeted seven years ago. I still maintain we haven't given this much thought.
JMTs.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Rsatchi » 26 Feb 2020 16:07

ramana wrote:From Harpreet or Cest Moiz or kancha

/Harpreet, What if Jihad-e-fistula surrenders? Think hard./

Ramana Ji and others, here are my thoughts on this. Am writing these on the go, so pardon if these appear a bit disjointed.
Firstly, there is no doubt that the PA has to be shown its place if there is to be peace inside our borders. And by showing them their place, I don't mean another 1971 wherein bulk of the Pak army was left unmolested by us not pushing harder in to West Pakistan. This time what is needed is utter and complete humiliation, if not outright decimation.

China will take atleast a few years to recover from this coronavirus thing. The window of opportunity for us is NOW. In fact, a lot of big ticket defence acquisitions are soon coming to fruition as well.

Ramanaji
This kind of reminds me of the Sanjeev Kumar dialogue in 'Sholay' : 'Loha Garam Hai, Maar do Haathoda' :lol:

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ranjan.rao » 02 Mar 2020 23:51

I just happened to notice the recent political developments in Afghanistan. Pakistani Army does not seem to be fully involved in the final negotiations. That does not mean they are not involved in the final solution. What will be interesting is if they will up the ante in Afghanistan. Without US presence/support, ANA folding up is just a matter of time max 2-3 years. They anyways control vast swathes of territory right now. The game is on again. The few things different are India's exposure to handling these cretins for over 2 decades with Rashtriya Rifles and the anti infiltration grids through fencing etc, Better economic situation. India of 2020s is no pushover, Pakistan is in a mess right now unlike what they were in early 90s (in many metrics better or at par with India), China's overt involvement in Pakistan. How this government acts will pave the way to the final solution of pakistan problem.
How, I wish we had ordered 1000s of Dhanush/ATAGS/K9, along with another line of Tejas even Mk1 to burn Pakis...Loha is getting hotter by the day. Arjunpanditji hope you have your wine drowning session soon.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ranjan.rao » 19 Mar 2020 21:18

Note the blackout mention in Modi's speech.....remember that ...
i see arjunpandit ji missing from action..hope all is well..

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 29 Mar 2020 05:05

Nah just returned from a ban

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ramana » 29 Mar 2020 05:11

I hear rumors of Covid-19 impact on Pindi in the corpse commanders.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Vivek K » 29 Mar 2020 06:20

Mort Walker wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:When you visit BRF in 2050, look for these threads on the front page:

-Managing Pakistan's imminent collapse
-Understanding the US
-Terroristan-2050
-List of victims of Terrorist attacks in India
-W. Bengal Union Territory-2050


You forgot to add:
-MRCA Acquisition
-LCA Tejas
-Arjun
-Kaveri
-AMCA Development

:lol: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Arjun Mk2x in trials with android commander! LOL! :rotfl:

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 29 Mar 2020 13:45

ramana wrote:I hear rumors of Covid-19 impact on Pindi in the corpse commanders.

You mean infection or the fact that they're transferring cases to pok

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Rsatchi » 29 Mar 2020 14:50

Vivek K wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
You forgot to add:
-MRCA Acquisition
-LCA Tejas
-Arjun
-Kaveri
-AMCA Development

:lol: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Arjun Mk2x in trials with android commander! LOL! :rotfl:

IAC III design phase with trails for F-18 acquisition
'Kaali' the Laser Gun
Underwater Remote Controlled Vehicle :lol: :lol:

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby amar_p » 29 Mar 2020 15:42

Celebrating the distress and disarray of our inherently unstable next door neighbour is unwise IMHO. When the neighbour's house burns, the flames will inevitably lick us to some extent. The best we can hope for in the short terms is a weakened Pak to lay low and struggle with its problems and hopefully solve some of them. We have still enough problems of our own to solve.

Just like a beautiful property is devalued due to a dirty dump next door, a disastrous Pak is not good for India in the long term. With this virus shaking down many established frames of reference, its hard to make any credible long term predictions.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby deejay » 29 Mar 2020 17:32

Rsatchi wrote:
Vivek K wrote:Arjun Mk2x in trials with android commander! LOL! :rotfl:

IAC III design phase with trails for F-18 acquisition
'Kaali' the Laser Gun
Underwater Remote Controlled Vehicle :lol: :lol:


This joke stops here. Next one gets a warning.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby RKumar » 29 Mar 2020 18:57

amar_p wrote:Celebrating the distress and disarray of our inherently unstable next door neighbour is unwise IMHO. When the neighbour's house burns, the flames will inevitably lick us to some extent. The best we can hope for in the short terms is a weakened Pak to lay low and struggle with its problems and hopefully solve some of them. We have still enough problems of our own to solve.

Just like a beautiful property is devalued due to a dirty dump next door, a disastrous Pak is not good for India in the long term. With this virus shaking down many established frames of reference, its hard to make any credible long term predictions.


It is perfect for us, we have to ensure that no one spills into our house. Dirty dumps can be used as a base for building a hospital or another house. We should do everything possible to help them to go belly bust.

PA is busy covering their backs because of the hot border otherwise they would be planning new attacks in India. Keep NaPak on the grey list so take out all the juice from their economy. Let's see long forefathers are going to fund PA, even if they keep funding them after a while they will get tired of their begging. 2 out of 4, are going through economic hardship due to lower oil prices. After a certain point, everyone wants some return on their investments. What NaPak army is going to offer? NaPak are already doing massive downhill skiing, it is a matter of time before they go bust. Corona might accelerate their infighting and could potentially start their own civil war like in the middle east. They should follow the footsteps of their forefathers. :rotfl:

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 19:18

amar_p wrote:Celebrating the distress and disarray of our inherently unstable next door neighbour is unwise IMHO. When the neighbour's house burns, the flames will inevitably lick us to some extent. The best we can hope for in the short terms is a weakened Pak to lay low and struggle with its problems and hopefully solve some of them. We have still enough problems of our own to solve.

Just like a beautiful property is devalued due to a dirty dump next door, a disastrous Pak is not good for India in the long term. With this virus shaking down many established frames of reference, its hard to make any credible long term predictions.


While what you say is generally true, what I would disagree with is the nature of the conclusions that most people, especially liberals draw from it.

Pakistan is like a dilapidated rodent ridden building in the neighborhood that drags down the areas property values and breeds vermin that causes problems for the entire neighborhood.

The liberal conclusion is that, for the reasons that you mentioned, nobody should try to hurt it, everybody should tiptoe around it and avoid criticizing it in deference to it.

The reality is that such an approach is neither going to solve the problem, nor more importantly get rid of the vermin that emanate from there. In fact it just perpetuates the problem.

The solution is that the place must be demolished/razed and then rebuilt. So anything that hastens that process must be welcome. As the old BR saying goes 'Give peace a chance, destroy the Pakistani Army'. The broader end-goal of course, is very much along the lines that you described.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Guddu » 29 Mar 2020 20:05

ranjan.rao wrote:Note the blackout mention in Modi's speech.....remember that ...
i see arjunpandit ji missing from action..hope all is well..


What are you referring to, which speech..link ?

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Mar 2020 03:40

Guddu wrote:
ranjan.rao wrote:Note the blackout mention in Modi's speech.....remember that ...
i see arjunpandit ji missing from action..hope all is well..


What are you referring to, which speech..link ?

I think it was the reference to the lockdown speech.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Mar 2020 03:51

amar_p wrote:Celebrating the distress and disarray of our inherently unstable next door neighbour is unwise IMHO. When the neighbour's house burns, the flames will inevitably lick us to some extent. The best we can hope for in the short terms is a weakened Pak to lay low and struggle with its problems and hopefully solve some of them. We have still enough problems of our own to solve.

Just like a beautiful property is devalued due to a dirty dump next door, a disastrous Pak is not good for India in the long term. With this virus shaking down many established frames of reference, its hard to make any credible long term predictions.

Hi amar, while others have answered your point from a logical point. Let me remind you that many if not most over here would have given peace a chance. However, with Pakistan a permanent peace is not possible due the very reason of Foundation of Pakistan. As long as a unified Western Pakistan backed by economy of Punjab and Sindh and resources of Balochistan pok exists we will never have peace. That's their reason of existence. To continue your analogy, a buildings value also falls when there's a slum next to it. Pakistan is the slum. It is not that we as a nation didn't give peace a chance. Chances were given after 48, iwt(that was after 48 remember), 71, 99, 2001, 2008. Have you ever seen any acknowledgement from them that they're living off Indian water largesse? In case you don't remember I suggest that you go and follow their conduct after 26/11. Those were times when Hillary-Obama admin was fully behind them to turn around the Afghan war. You'll get your answer and perhaps the raison de etre of this thread. If you disagree with that, I request you do not derail the thread.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby amar_p » 30 Mar 2020 16:22

No where did I suggest inaction or downplaying of the nuisance value at best or suicidal harm at worst that our neighbour can bring to us. In today's world, redrawing borders, toppling over structures that run a country will generate consequences that are very unpredictable and very tough to deal with. There is a huge gap between what we can wish for and what is achievable.

My view is that India has started ticking off some of the items on the achievables list already:
1. Take down the Pak victim of terrorism narrative
2. Mobilising International pressure and FTFA dark grey listing
3. Demonstration of "eenth ka jawab..." by expanding the threshold of response from retaliatory to preemptive
4. Art 370 & 35A annullment to wash away the faux dream of some day getting all of Kashmir
5. Befriend America sufficiently to dry up their economic support for Pak
IMO the next to do item on Achievables list is:
A. Take back PoK by infringing a 1971 type military defeat - "naa rahegi baat.."

But these are all containment measures and may still not affect the core of the problem.

To make Pak the neighbour we wish it were, our Desirables list would look like :
1. eliminating Madarssa culture and reeducation of their population on their history, religion and science
2. Establish civilian primacy over military
3. Strengthen democratic institutions
4. Strengthen administration, health, industry, environment...
Basically rebuild the whole country (or countries if the dreams of dismembering enthusiasts were to come true).

Does anyone think India has the appetite or means or the needed years to spare to engage in such an adventure?

May be just building a high enough wall with electrified barbed wire on the top of it is enough to preserve the value of our house and focus on living in it?

Thats why I think its hard to come up with an achievable long term strategy beyond what we already seem to be doing now.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Mar 2020 17:19

amar_p wrote:
....
But these are all containment measures and may still not affect the core of the problem.
.....
To make Pak the neighbour we wish it were, our Desirables list would look like :
1. eliminating Madarssa culture and reeducation of their population on their history, religion and science
2. Establish civilian primacy over military
3. Strengthen democratic institutions
4. Strengthen administration, health, industry, environment...
Basically rebuild the whole country (or countries if the dreams of dismembering enthusiasts were to come true).

Does anyone think India has the appetite or means or the needed years to spare to engage in such an adventure?

May be just building a high enough wall with electrified barbed wire on the top of it is enough to preserve the value of our house and focus on living in it?

Thats why I think its hard to come up with an achievable long term strategy beyond what we already seem to be doing now.

1. thanks you actually created a good list. However, do you think any of this can be accomplished by continuing status quo? As long as the current state of pakistan exists 1 and 2 which matter most can't be accomplished. It has not been possible anywhere. I think you are thinking that I am assuming there will be a war US style or 1971 style and everything will be over in a swoop in 15 days. I dont think that's what was the intent of starting this thread. All the points will require defaning of the pakistani military and the neutering of the superiority complex that these guys have developed over last 70 years based on the mughalia sultanat..that too will take 20-25 years...perhaps you are asking why should we do it? why not manage our own business. My viewpoint is even if we manage our own business they will not let us..if we dont find war on their turf we will continue fighting on our land like we have been doing in J&K like we did in Punjab. The fact that indian heartleands were largely immune to the scourge..we could absorb a lot of hits..which will not be the case in say next 50 years when our own demographics will pose a challenge. Also, the internal demographic challenges stem from the existince of pakistan and are fanned by ISI and it's paid/unpaid supporters and closeted jihadis.

2. I am sorry to break the news that if we dont have the appetite or means..then we may stare at another partiition calls in west bengal or kerala or UP ..remember many who stayed here were not necessarily in favor of a secular state but wanted to join the state of pakistan. ...may be a return to medina tendencies...we do not have to rebuild..we can let them rebuild with providing umbrella of safety and security...the , bangladesh, nepal and bhutan models..rather than Iraq/Afghanistan.

3. I doubt we are keen on keeping boots on ground for extended periods..but remember we do not have to support like US through sea routes. But yes if required hold some valuable/strategically pieces for extended periods... to either threaten their emergence in future...we can stretch up the entire thar desert to threaten pakistani mainland around sindh and stretch further upto icchogil (hypothetical cases only) to keep new states of future erstwhile pakistan under our artiller ranges..

4. lastly, need to think from the chinese angle. If we are kept competing and managing a nation 1/6 the size, when are we going to take on Chinese hegemony in the region. As long as the state exists it will be propped up by US, China to meddle in the region and keep indian military tied up.. The presence of pakistan also prevents us from spending a lot on Navy and perhaps taking on China. Imagine if India started doing what pakistan does to India, will china be able to focus on US/japan? The resources freed up for 30 years will result in unlocking economic value for the nation..

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Mar 2020 17:24

amar_p wrote:No where did I suggest inaction or downplaying of the nuisance value at best or suicidal harm at worst that our neighbour can bring to us. In today's world, redrawing borders, toppling over structures that run a country will generate consequences that are very unpredictable and very tough to deal with. There is a huge gap between what we can wish for and what is achievable.

My view is that India has started ticking off some of the items on the achievables list already:
1. Take down the Pak victim of terrorism narrative
2. Mobilising International pressure and FTFA dark grey listing
3. Demonstration of "eenth ka jawab..." by expanding the threshold of response from retaliatory to preemptive
4. Art 370 & 35A annullment to wash away the faux dream of some day getting all of Kashmir
5. Befriend America sufficiently to dry up their economic support for Pak
IMO the next to do item on Achievables list is:
A. Take back PoK by infringing a 1971 type military defeat - "naa rahegi baat.."

But these are all containment measures and may still not affect the core of the problem.

Basically rebuild the whole country (or countries if the dreams of dismembering enthusiasts were to come true).

walls etc are defensive measures..we are able to do that coz the winds are blowing against them..they have good survival instincts ..they have survived previous crises and mark my words if india doesnt act they will survive this phase too. if you think taking back pOk and GB will be enough..then think again..we took back the BD which was their economic power house then....did that mend their ways...they were back in business after a decade of internal turmoil..they will be back ...
again all these defensive measures are filling a leaky bucket..no wall is fool proof. We already have fenced borders and a most of LC too..if not terrorism..they will use another form of war..it could be biological..it could be cyber or some other theater or dimension..but they will fight till they could..what we have to do is reduce them to a size that they can't cause us significant damage..a reduced punjab state with water dpeendency on india is a good option..in every other situation they will rise up and make things difficult for us..

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby amar_p » 30 Mar 2020 18:15

ArjunPandit wrote: what we have to do is reduce them to a size that they can't cause us significant damage..a reduced punjab state with water dpeendency on india is a good option..

Assuming for a moment that this is achievable, how do you propose we can do it, without creating multiple vipers instead of one big snake to fight? :roll:

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Rsatchi » 30 Mar 2020 18:23

amar_p wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote: what we have to do is reduce them to a size that they can't cause us significant damage..a reduced punjab state with water dpeendency on india is a good option..

Assuming for a moment that this is achievable, how do you propose we can do it, without creating multiple vipers instead of one big snake to fight? :roll:

Very difficult agreed!
Option/s: only by Balkanization:
1.FATA/Northwest Pak to the joined to Afghanistan as they have never accepted the Durand Line + the language and the strong tribal bonds + Strict adherence to Wahabi/Sharia
2.Independent Baloch
3.All J&K as one state but how to remove the Mirpuris and the wahabis??
4.Sindh as an independent or state of India?? again what would the Mohajirs feel about returning to the fold!!!
Any other option ain't going to work.

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby kit » 30 Mar 2020 18:35

Rsatchi wrote:
amar_p wrote:Assuming for a moment that this is achievable, how do you propose we can do it, without creating multiple vipers instead of one big snake to fight? :roll:

Very difficult agreed!
Option/s: only by Balkanization:
1.FATA/Northwest Pak to the joined to Afghanistan as they have never accepted the Durand Line + the language and the strong tribal bonds + Strict adherence to Wahabi/Sharia
2.Independent Baloch
3.All J&K as one state but how to remove the Mirpuris and the wahabis??
4.Sindh as an independent or state of India?? again what would the Mohajirs feel about returning to the fold!!!
Any other option ain't going to work.


Multiple factions inside all vying for power, play off one against the other , once in. a while and watch the fun., Pakistani punjab needs a rival for power , split off baluchistan , the NWFP can create enough insurgents to give paki punjab a bloody nose every time they hold their head up...

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby ArjunPandit » 30 Mar 2020 19:03

amar all this will be a pipe dream..if we keep dreaming about it..if we act there is a possibility...the good thing is that pakis have lot of skeletons or rather mass graves under their cupboard

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Postby Bart S » 31 Mar 2020 07:32

ArjunPandit wrote:
2. I am sorry to break the news that if we dont have the appetite or means..then we may stare at another partiition calls in west bengal or kerala or UP ..remember many who stayed here were not necessarily in favor of a secular state but wanted to join the state of pakistan. ...may be a return to medina tendencies...we do not have to rebuild..we can let them rebuild with providing umbrella of safety and security...the , bangladesh, nepal and bhutan models..rather than Iraq/Afghanistan.


It is quite simple: Pakistanis are working day and night towards a breakup and disintegration of India. India has resisted it so far, but they will keep trying in the hope they get lucky on the 100th attempt. It is either us or them. We need to destroy them (as a unified anti-India entity) before they have any chance of destroying us, instead of delusional nonsense about 'a strong and stable Pakistan' being in our interests etc. And the idea that doing so will destabilize us is also nonsense, they are doing their level best to destabilize us as it is, weakening them also weakens their ability to hurt us.


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