Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

[ramana]

Good analysis by Gunner Shot in Insurgencey in Pakjab periphery.

https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/04/bal ... y.html?m=1

[ramana]

Kit and Arjun Pandit
The region of Bakistan is since the Epic age subject to financial distress and the people swing to whoever relieved them of that distress.
The gradual conversion since Arab invasion of Sindh is to be able to trade and to get relief from relgious banditry based in towns.
It was unfortunate the Sikhs got defeated by English and that stopped the conversion to Sikhism. Partition drove out most of the Hindus to India.
What's left are Islamist sects and sub-cults.

[niran]

^^we can try to sanitize the ground using Pinaka/Grad and ATAGS. Border areas around punjab should be doable. The costs is waht we need to keep in mind

military equipment use is onree for military targets, IA IAF & IN will neither fire a cuss word at civillians let alone sanitize ground nor GOI will order such.

CAA was brought precisely to deal with civillian paxi population when Bharat retake PoJK, this even their lowly madarsa educated maulvi know but not BRF eggspurt.
reason for MoHA is dithering on CAA organic rules and eegulations is Bharat ain't ready to take back PoJK whenever ready they will notify those and paxis will have two options
1. migrate to paxistan proper themselves
2. GOI will force migrate em.

here read paxistani as momo popularion of PoJK

[ArjunPandit]

^^we can try to sanitize the ground using Pinaka/Grad and ATAGS. Border areas around punjab should be doable. The costs is waht we need to keep in mind

military equipment use is onree for military targets, IA IAF & IN will neither fire a cuss word at civillians let alone sanitize ground nor GOI will order such.

CAA was brought precisely to deal with civillian paxi population when Bharat retake PoJK, this even their lowly madarsa educated maulvi know but not BRF eggspurt.
reason for MoHA is dithering on CAA organic rules and eegulations is Bharat ain't ready to take back PoJK whenever ready they will notify those and paxis will have two options
1. migrate to paxistan proper themselves
2. GOI will force migrate em.

here read paxistani as momo popularion of PoJK

niran sir i am surprised you are that naiive, what you are missing is that the only difference b/w baki army and bakis is of uniform and level of training..they are heavily armed and willing to fight..after the initial assault they will do what Iraq/afghanistan did and ukraine is doing right now..mixing with civilians..i have posted few days back about baki mindset, have been in to numerous baki threads..their hindu/indian hatred is just unimaginable..this is not to say that i dont agree with what you say..but there will be a fight...those brave enough to die will fight rest willl do hijrat to fight another decade/century

[ramana]

Pakistani Punjabis need psychiatry. They are beyond psychology.

[Vayutuvan]

Pakistani Punjabis need psychiatry. They are beyond psychology.

Even Psychiatry or medication would help. Schizophrenia can neither be cured nor majorly managed. It is a lifelong affectation. Death is the only cure.

[ramana]

Thanks for that observation.
If you can add something constructive please participate.

[ramana]

Many studies on state failure have concluded states fail when the idea of the state fails.
Pakistan was an idea of the British to split India when they left. Already that idea partially failed in 1971.

Now even more so. The studies show a significant contributor needs to be split away and not a useless portion like Khyber Paktuhunwa.

Pakistan survived the 1971 split as East Pakistan was far away and the real British objective was West Pakistan. Bengalis latched on to the idea in 1946 with Direct Action Day.

[SRajesh]

Ramanaji
Just to blame Britshits for the partition is a bit jaded!!
The idea of Shanthidooth as a Monolithic block was probably the Britishit idea agreed but they never realized the Sub-continental Shanthidoots are as diverse as their original hindu ancestors.
So those internal differences to this day are persisting are rather intensified. And that will definitely tear the country apart!!
Until all 'SugarDaddy's' fail to come to rescue the country will run I think.
The idea failed the day the influential 'Ahmediayas' were kicked out of the power structure, and brick by brick punjabi's are bringing down the structure!!
My only concerns here is if the idiots on our side of punjab, especially idiots like Sidhu, Khalistani's start a new programme of 'Is' and 'Sk' are two sides of the same coin(meaning monotheistic) and start singing of a joint state.
That would be a major disaster if we do not nip in the bud!

[sanjaykumar]

May allah and waheguru bless this joint state.

[ramana]

Rsatchi, Let's not muddy the waters by bringing in Khalistanis.
They are a fringe surviving on Canada, US, and UK support.
Pakistan is just a logistic hub.
The vast majority of Sikhs don't support such foolish extremeists.

[ArjunPandit]

some incoherent thoughts on this
1. khalistan problem was well tackled even in its heyday when there were widespread ak47s in punjab..it was paxtan's getting back to us after 71 (K2; kashmir and khalistan). As ramana guru said the main logistical hub is west paksitan..by that he means pakjab..large chunk of karachi folks realize this .. but the binding to religion is too strong to give up ..else they would be happy to merge back with india..
2. their economic malaise is increasing; quite evident through debt rollovers, FX deposits through KSA, UAE, Qatar, kuwait etc. massive price increases of fuel, food items, lack of electricity..poor education and healthcare facilities all around..it's a train going without track..
3. military weakness usually follows economic malaise as the army will not be able to fund effectively in normal states..even if it does..ilks of IK will point that out, much to the chagrin of army..this will further weaken the support base of army..as we have seen consistently in recent #tags of bajwa traitor etc
4. the only lynchpin that makes paxtan keep going is religion..this is where nupur sharma incident needs to seen..already there have been talks about this..and there will be further debates on this and other areas like family rapes etc..economic situation..
what has been sorted out at our end
1. internal military leaks
2. endemic shortage of wvr over previous regimes
3. a demonstration of intent to act
what is left, largely social
1. have a curricullum ready when we need to move in
2. ghar wapsi mechanism to bring large chunk of disillusioned in H mainstream. remember if we dont, missionaries will do so. It is not for a reason that they are basing heavily in punjab. This is a very imp point
3. Atmanirbharta in basic weapons/ammo: key being. arty, shells, tanks, trucks, fighter jets and basic ammo to flatten a key chunk that lies within our range to sustain an at least 1-2 year long intense campaign. bakistan is heavily militarized society
4. Ringfence rest of india from bakistan..border fencing will only go so far..this is where Agniveer would also work..we need people who are not police but semi military can protect from riots..can protect from infiltrators..
5. Increase our fertility rate and lower their fertility rates to manage the fall outs

[ArjunPandit]

Not sure if other people are following these trends about widening faultlines of paxtan collectively
1. Ethnic/sectarian/linguistic: Sunni, Shia, Deobandi barelvi, pathan, sindhi, afhgans
2. Economic: Running from one bailout to another, one borrowing to another. People know it but its' becomeing quite regular. Inflation. This one is of great interest to me. Inflation always preceeds great sociio poltiical changes: from french revolution (may be before) to LatAm and SL till now. Pak has been running 10+ inflation for sustainable period of time but somehow managing to hang on..no revolution
3. Establishment (new term for military): Army has been heavily criticized for its neutral role in ik ouster; people openly abusing. Supposedly budget decreasing. After end of this decade when indian defence budget will reach 100Bn USD easily the disparity/deterrence will be huge and they would not be able to cause a major damage, if they continue to exist.
4. Climate related damage: floods, droughts water scarcity will be common. Remember at some point, Indus water treaty will be up for discussion.
5. Population bomb: We often see 5+, 10+kids there..parents even dont know their names. ..economic malaise will point them towards lawlessness..almost all educated kids post on twitter willing to leave paxtan..

so a vicious cycle in place..only bad ones left in nation..little growth..lawlessness all fuelling troubles..previously army has stabilized things. I see army unwilling ot do that now at least being face of it...may be they know the situation is not salvageable and letting it drag as much as possible..
i'd be extremely worried with them lowering their defence budget and reforms as that means they are heading towards survivability/hibernation mode..we need to solve the problem sooner before our demography tilts

[ramana]

There are daily gruesome videos from TSp that show the downward spiral of the common citizens.
Everyday we see new opeds discussing faultlines. Not one has a plan for the aftermath.

[ArjunPandit]

There are daily gruesome videos from TSp that show the downward spiral of the common citizens.
Everyday we see new opeds discussing faultlines. Not one has a plan for the aftermath.

i consider that as "the expert problem" by nicholas naseem taleb. A lot of self appointed experts with no "skin in the game" at least real skin and not one that is removed. Have opinions. These experts were claiming nuke strikes even at a ballon (holi one) attack on them. We saw Uri, Balakot..
now coming to aftermath...the more i think of it..the more i think a non democratic power like russia china or will be a better post war stakeholder. india's role should be to preciptiate the collapse.
there are three options i see for post collapse..
1. India being left after the post collapse, as the instigator. Could appear as a natural return point for the the awam. However, india owning that up without ghar wapsi program would be a huge risk as afghanistan sytle insurgency..qaif eer hindus will not be taken positively by ummah. If we can pull it off, would be at a great cost and elevation of our hard power, but i see us currently not prepared for this now.
2. China/Russia: China has deep connections with state incurated over long periods and russia has history of operating in hostile environment and has a genuine need for warm water access.
3. Western/US/UK: Only intent is create troubles for Iran/Russia. Not sure what organic need they'll serve. They will be fly by night operator and would be happy to leave like they did in afghanistan..
happy to be corrected here

[ArjunPandit]

one trend that perhaps we should be capturing here is the slow and steady uptick in balochistan resistance..

#PakistanArmy Lt-Col Laiq Baig Mirza was shot dead in #Balochistan in #Pakistan. He had been abducted and the Pakistan army had launched a search using SSGs and Heptrs

In addition, another #Pakistani solder was KIA in the same area

https://www.dawn.com/news/1699746/soldi ... ation-ispr

[ramana]

When the British created Pakistan, Pakjab was the core but its not viable as it has no sea access.
So they added other areas to give it a pretense of a State. The most prosperous area with a minuscule IQ was Sindh.

The endgame starts with Sindh.
Rest are periphery and Pakistan will continue if they secede.

But to give confidence to Sindh POK must re-join India.

Its like a game of Jenga. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenga

Remove the key piece and all fall down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jenga.gif

[Bart S]

one trend that perhaps we should be capturing here is the slow and steady uptick in balochistan resistance..

#PakistanArmy Lt-Col Laiq Baig Mirza was shot dead in #Balochistan in #Pakistan. He had been abducted and the Pakistan army had launched a search using SSGs and Heptrs

In addition, another #Pakistani solder was KIA in the same area

https://www.dawn.com/news/1699746/soldi ... ation-ispr

It also seems that Pashtuns have taken Baloch under their wings now and they have formed an alliance. The Baloch groups are now supported by TTP directly and Afghan Taliban indirectly, and the educated Baloch are supported by ANP and PTM. Pashtuns were always the majority population in Balochistan and the ISI/Army game of pitting them against Baloch seems to no longer work, especially since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. True to Paki traditions of tactical brilliance, their Afghan project has backfired spectacularly on them.

[ArjunPandit]

When the British created Pakistan, Pakjab was the core but its not viable as it has no sea access.
So they added other areas to give it a pretense of a State. The most prosperous area with a minuscule IQ was Sindh.

The endgame starts with Sindh.
Rest are periphery and Pakistan will continue if they secede.

But to give confidence to Sindh POK must re-join India.

Its like a game of Jenga. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenga

Remove the key piece and all fall down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jenga.gif

- balochistan was also taken over without any agreement
- sindh has been funding a lot of bakistan.the streets of karachi are flooding like sewers..at some point the difference between India and bakistan will become quite stark

[ramana]

Bart, When Curzon incorporated NWFP he ceded parts of it into Balochistan and into Punjab.
So there are Pashtuns spread in both provinces.

[ramana]

And FSU takeover of Afghanistan resulted n Afghan/Pashtun refugee/settlers in Sindh. Especially Karachi.

[ramana]

Bakis remember ancestors!

https://www.dawn.com/news/1315668

[S_Madhukar]

Looking at how BJP dealt with SS in Maha we need an encouragement of ghar wapasi in Bakiland. If needed they can shed blood amongst themselves but the victor has to believe in Hindu origin, if needed be our vassal and serve as buffer against Eyeran and Afpak. We should have no business trying to police that area but instead resurrect it.
Just like CIS is dominated by Russ we should dominate our periphery. Trade with us will ensure prosperity for all. But for that we need to be the 20T gorilla not Cheen with a willingness to use hard power as needed. That’s the vision and mission country must have. Very difficult but someone said aiming 10x is more transformative than just 2x

[g.sarkar]

The endgame starts with Sindh.
Rest are periphery and Pakistan will continue if they secede.
But to give confidence to Sindh POK must re-join India.
Its like a game of Jenga. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenga
Remove the key piece and all fall down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Jenga.gif
- balochistan was also taken over without any agreement
- sindh has been funding a lot of bakistan.the streets of karachi are flooding like sewers..at some point the difference between India and bakistan will become quite stark

During late 70s, Western TV was freely available in the Warsaw pact nations. In spite of the Russian propaganda, it was visible to all that the West had a standard of living that was far higher. No one, including the Russians could believe anymore that communism was going to bring that kind of a living that West Europe was enjoying and everyone wanted to be a part of that. The same is happening with Pakistan. As India is progressing and leaving Pakistan behind, it is evident from Indian movies, TV and newspapers, that we have a far better standard of living. So, we are starting to see some Pakistanis wanting to be a part of India. This number will increase as their economy collapses. But wherever a Pakistani goes, he carries Pakistan with him. We can see that in the US, UK, Australia and Europe.
Gautam

[sanjaykumar]

I don’t think American tv was accessible. Even rock music was only surreptitiously available in the warpac.


It would be a catastrophic mistake to take in Pakistanis or Bangladeshis with or without the land.

The only exceptions are Gilgit Hunza Baltistan. Not the Mirpur districts. And Baluchistan to ensure human rights are protected. Baluchi to decide on eventual accession to India.

[SRajesh]

Ramanaji
Sindh has a large population of Muhajir or so called Bihari Muslims.
Now I presume the 'Geneva Camp' in Bangladesh is still running.
If Sindh join wont these people in Geneva Camp want to move in
And they will definitely carry a baggage of 'Hindu Hatred' for perceived sense of 'Thrown to the wolves' (muhajir about Pakjabi and Geneva Camp about Beedis)
Do we need them for 'Gaslighting' the rest of the Shanthidooth??

[ArjunPandit]

During late 70s, Western TV was freely available in the Warsaw pact nations. In spite of the Russian propaganda, it was visible to all that the West had a standard of living that was far higher. No one, including the Russians could believe anymore that communism was going to bring that kind of a living that West Europe was enjoying and everyone wanted to be a part of that. The same is happening with Pakistan. As India is progressing and leaving Pakistan behind, it is evident from Indian movies, TV and newspapers, that we have a far better standard of living. So, we are starting to see some Pakistanis wanting to be a part of India. This number will increase as their economy collapses. But wherever a Pakistani goes, he carries Pakistan with him. We can see that in the US, UK, Australia and Europe.
Gautam

there is a key difference between a european in warsaw pact and paxtani. Both sides were largely white Xtians, yes different sects schisms but largely one book one religion barring few exceptions. Thats why east and west germany unification was largely smooth. However, in pakistani case at least 4 generations have been raised on increasing hindu hatred and muslim superiority and poor/dirty endia. They will find it hard to swallow their pills. Not that they will not do it, as there are past precedences that bakis and the coreligionsits have gone to countries with majority of other religions like for Syria and yemen and myanmar. Unless there is an aggressive ghar wapsi campaign this will be detrimental to our civilzational cause. That is getting more important progressively. Perhaps we dont need to do it ourselves but get it done through organizations based in other countries like in myanmar, sl or nepal

[g.sarkar]

I am not advocating Akhand Bharat, only stating the fact that as Pakistan sinks, there will be Pakistanis wanting to come back to India to escape the turmoil. Giving Indian citizenship to Pakistanis is highly risky with little or no benefit to India. Should be avoided. Gharwapsi could be taquia or razai or something else, as they can not be trusted.
Gautam

[Antrix]

I am not advocating Akhand Bharat, only stating the fact that as Pakistan sinks, there will be Pakistanis wanting to come back to India to escape the turmoil. Giving Indian citizenship to Pakistanis is highly risky with little or no benefit to India. Should be avoided. Gharwapsi could be taquia or razai or something else, as they can not be trusted.
Gautam

Once any Pakistanis enter India, getting aadhaar/voter ids/passport is just a matter of time, given how many levels we are compromised at. When even Rohingyas and BDs are able to get these more easily than actual Indian citizens. Gharwapsi is not enough, can the secular Indian government and secular armed forces of India, feed them pork or commit blasphemy to show that they are not Muslims anymore? How many Indian presstitutes and media dalals will tear out their clothes & hair if somebody even hints at this?

Does the secular Indian state have the balls to order MMG fire at incoming Paki civilian hordes? If not the MMG, does the secular GoI have the cojones to build Chinese style Gharwapsi / re-education camps on the borders to de-radicalize the hordes & slowly settle them in their own territories governed by India, feeding and supporting them in the meantime? Forget the Indian state, does even the Indian Hindu society have the stomach to digest the 'international condemnation' and muck that will be thrown at us, if we start de-Islamisation process of a broken Pakistan? What will be the reaction of Indian Muslims, will they see this as a defeat of Islam and turn into rioting rage boys burning the country or will they stand and watch the gharwapsi of millions of Pakistani Momins?

[g.sarkar]

Antrixji,
The Pakistan border is not open, so it is difficult to come into India from that area. Not impossible, but just more difficult. The BD border is on the other hand just wide open. Illegals are coming in great numbers. Laws must be changed and officials must be punished severely for furnishing the illegal immigrants with documents . But currently, the Modi government has more important issues in hand, such as a war from the North. I am sure in a short while there will be a war in the Lac and/or Taiwan. We at BRF will see this happen within a few years. So, the priority is to amass weapons ASAP, and this is being done.
Gautam

[kit]

Out of 4,096.70 kilometres (2,545.57 mi), which is the total length of International Border with Bangladesh, the Government of India initially sanctioned 3,406 kilometres (2,116 mi) of fencing along Indo-Bangladesh border. By November 2007, 2,529 kilometres (1,571 mi) of fencing was completed and the project was likely to completed by 2008-09.By October 2009, about 2,649 kilometres (1,646 mi) of fencing was completed and the deadline for project completion was revised to March 2010.By March 2011, 2,735 kilometres (1,699 mi) of fencing was completed and the deadline was further revised to March 2012.

As per the press release from the Government of India, the sanctioned length of the fence along Indo-Bangladesh Border was 3,326.14 kilometres (2,066.77 mi) while 2,746.44 kilometres (1,706.56 mi) was completed by February 2018. By July 2019, 2,803.013 kilometres (1,741.712 mi) of fencing was completed. And by August 2021, 3,141 kilometres (1,952 mi) of fencing was completed. Fencing along remaining feasible stretches is yet to completed.

source : wiki

[vijayk]

https://www.firstpost.com/world/pakista ... 98641.html
Pakistan: Former PM Imran Khan's party received prohibited funding from 34 foreign nationals
The Election Commission of Pakistan declared that the party had kept 13 accounts secret, which it said was a violation of the Pakistan Constitution

sushant sareen @sushantsareen

What an action packed 24 hrs in my ‘favourite’ country: Imran Khan about to be disqualified, a corps commander dies in a chopper crash cause of which is unknown, Al Qaeda chief Zawahiri is sent to meet his 72 hoors…meanwhile the economy continues to tank

[ramana]

There are wheels within wheels in all the things sushant screen worte but doesn't connect.
It starts with Wendy Sherman visit and revealing future outcomes if TSP doesn't make amends.


Bajwa offers up AaZ who is in a Haqqani safehouse!

Haqqanis are controlled by Lt Gen Fiaz.
In retaliation Fiaz arranges LtGen Sarfaraz helicopter shoot down.

Sarfaraz was on track to be COAS.

Basically jernails are going rogue.
And don't cry for AaZ.
He was branching out into South India.
He finds Kerala Muslims as willing murder assassins.
Thank Kerala secularism.

[Anujan]

AAZ gave several speeches about the importance of "Jihad in Kashmir". He set up AQIS to focus on India.

I believe that his last major music video release was about Jihad in Kashmir, before he departed to get his 72 raisins. (which leads me to believe that he was ISI's guest, and therefore had to read out 1-2 sponsored messages every year before regular programming)

Good riddance.

[ramana]

True. Hence its case of (f)raticide in TSP.
The big Army sold him to the Yanks.
I expect some more trigonometry!*

* Trigonometry where at each corner stands a gunman and shoots at the other!
Only one will remain.
One corner ISI, other corner TSPA, last a mix of abduls.
I am rooting for abduls!

[ramana]

AAZ gave several speeches about the importance of "Jihad in Kashmir". He set up AQIS to focus on India.

I believe that his last major music video release was about Jihad in Kashmir, before he departed to get his 72 raisins. (which leads me to believe that he was ISI's guest, and therefore had to read out 1-2 sponsored messages every year before regular programming)

Good riddance.

From IS thread...

Al-Qaida chief Aymenn al-Zawahiri’s ‘go to Assam’ call disturbing: Cops

GUWAHATI: Assam has termed al-Qaida chief Aymenn al-Zawahiri’s appeal to do “hijrah” or migrate to Assam “disturbing” as police continue to bust modules of Ansar ul- Islam, a chapter of al-Qaida in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), in the state.
Ansar ul-Islam is known to radicalise youths of the state through religious teachings. Nearly 30 members of the terror outfit have been nabbed in the state this year.

Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Thursday said “a section of fundamentalists is working in Bangladesh to destabilise the country” and “since Assam and Bangladesh share the international boundary, there is some danger in our state also. The central and state governments are working in tandem to destroy the modules.”

[ramana]

US magazine, National Interest warns of impending Pak collapse!!!

https://nationalinterest.org/issue/sepoct-2022
Usual Cassandra whine

[ArjunPandit]

Global Inflation is approaching 70s



last time 70s were not good for paxtan..

this time too things are not looking good either...

- the floods will have impact beyond the immediate...food and fuel prices will further shoot up..reduced production will hit economy....
- US and EU have not opened coffers unlike previously, simply coz of domestic inflationary pressures
- impact on karachi/sindh, balochistan has been much worse than Punjab (due to better canals/dams there and less rain too). Most of the country is anyways flat so it's flooded everywhere
- Lawlessness is increasing. So far they are only propped up by ME US and EU coz they dont want radicalized useless yahoos lining up for immigration

[ramana]

Heard a complicated story to explain the dirty nuke in Ukraine.

The recent floods in September 2022 drowned a few nuke bunkers in Paxtan.
Bajwa dutifully called massa as they provided PALS etc.
They found it's no longer capable of going boom but can go pfft like a wet Diwali cracker.
And took the pfft ones awaay.
Soon stories of tactical nuke and later dirty bomb in Ukraine stories started from the US.
Biden who is not sure where the podium is is very sure of the dirty bomb!
------

France suspected and said they won't join the retaliation party in case of tactical/dirty bomb goes off in Ukraine.
This is clinching support for the above story.
IAEA has nuke material signatures from all over the world.

Russian defence minister talked twice to the US and even India.

Why this thread? Well, the source material is from Paztan and they will get a return gift from Russia first.

[ramana]

https://twitter.com/JaidevJamwal/status ... vjJZKOK7xw

2021


2022 after baad!