Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

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YashG
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by YashG »

RoyG wrote: For this reason you yourself can't see the parallels between the Pakjabi-Ashrafi nexus and the Mughals. Both are very similar in that their primary source of revenue was rent seeking both in terms of land and it's resource output. Collusive entities which engage in rent seeking behavior don't care about GDP numbers, talent generation, innovation, high end manufacturing, etc.
You're conflating generic factors to make your similarity argument. Agriculture revenues were main source of mughals because we were an agrarian economy. Agriculture revenues were main source of marathas too (chauth & sardeshmukhi). So Marathas and Mughals were same?
RoyG wrote:
Don't look at it as BJP translates directly to Marathas or Pak Army to Mughals. Look at the situation from the lens of clerical class which sustains it. The collusive entity which has captured the state is in decline and the Ulema is very concerned.

As far as the decline of industry until British arrived, this is incorrect to an extent for two reasons. The biggest beneficiaries of the agrarians and industrial output to the detriment of the population were the Mughal families and dalals both Hindu and Muslim which sustained it. Second, there were no major centers of learning which were created during the Mughal period which prevented the subcontinent from competing long term with the European powers. Again you can be the richest or poorest state but the behavior itself (rent seeking) is the same. I have no idea about the Guptas and the cause of their decline but for the reasons mentioned above I do see very striking parallels between now and the early 18th century.

What many don't realize you can't kill Pakistan unless you destroy Ulema class across the subcontinent. The two can't be seen as separate. It has to be total wipe out.
If your argument is 'Ulemas' - the religious class helps pakistani. It is right but this method is simply the use of religion as an administrative tool. By that means a lot of Islamic regimes use religion as state tool. So again this argument doesnt make it any more similar than any other states and empire that used religion as a state tool of control.

Not developing education & tech excellence centres is hallmark of uncompetitive regime. All states that eventually fail do that.

Your criticism of pakistan is correct but their characterisation as being similar to mughal doesnt give any special insights into pakistan's decline. All your observations on pakistan's decline are true of any declining power and had religion play an important tool of state power.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by kancha »

Shared some thoughts on twitter / blog about the current mess in Pakistan

Twitter Link
Blog Link
First and foremost, I would like to start with an undisputable fact:

This is the longest that the Pakistan Army has NOT directly ruled Pakistan.

Yup, you may read the above statement again and take some time to do some mental mathematics if you so desire!
Basically, their economic model of Begging, Borrowing (and printing FICN) to sustain their economy is under a LOT of stress because neither are they able to beg (to their heart's content) or even borrow due to the chickens finally coming home to roost!

So .. will Pakistan FINALLY default?
Well, this is a question I asked nearly five years ago, leading to yet another thread which carries on still!

Basically, they've been in hand-to-mouth situation since a really really long time and have somehow at the last moment someone throws some crumbs their way and they are able to live to beg another day!
In fact that should be the new motto of Bhikharistan: Live to Beg Another Day!

So what comes next?
This is what I will delve upon further on in the thread.
The one thing that I am waiting for (and Insha'llah, it would happen soon) is their forex reserves going below the $4Bn mark. THAT would be a good psychological blow, IMO, since it's been a while since their forex reserves went to the 'Three Point Something' mark!
But Will they default?
Seems increasingly likely too.
But then there is always a billion or two that benefactors can throw at them!
Any additional money thrown their way will only result in kicking of the can a bit further down the road before the inevitable happens.
Now I'm no economist to hazard a guess as to how the situation might pan out in case they do default, but then I can make a guess!
Sri Lanka scenario of some months ago gives a template of what might happen. Massive protests .. toppling of govt .. occupation of mansions of the elites .. you name it!
But Bhikharistan is a bit different.
And no, I'm NOT talking about nukes!
Instead, what I am talking about is a rabid, fanatical population armed with perhaps the largest inventory of weapons with civilian citizens after America.
Once they become a mob, things would be really interesting to watch!
It may not be too long before they accuse India of stirring up troubles on their borders.
But then, if they indeed do so, what happens next?
Will they muster the courage to 'teach India a lesson'?
Especially with the experience of Balakot & loss of an F-16?
And of trembling legs?

Interestingly, the average Pakistani citizen is more and more apprehensive of and at some level, even enamoured with the rapid growth that India has achieved. They do realise that India has pulled so far away that there is no way Pakistan can ever hope to catch up anymore.
Hence, heightened tensions on the Durand Line might be one way to rally their starving population!
But then, knowing the absurdities they are known for, they might STILL choose to poke India yet again!
Yet, we see peace overtures (only to be quickly made contingent upon handing over Kashmir to them!) from Bhikharistan. What I make of it is pure and simple signalling to benefactors that ‘Look, we are seeking peace. Now give us alms!’

Kashmir is something they just can’t give up.

Kashmir has been the reason for their existence.

Kashmir will be the reason for their downfall!

They’ve been having wet dreams ever since their very birth about ‘freeing’ Kashmir. And to think they will move on now, is pure stupidity!
Remember, for all the fake bravado, the survival instinct of the Brown Panted Ones is really strong. That’s why, when in trouble they mostly lash out on their own people.

After 1965, there was an internal coup and Ayub Khan was thrown out.

Thereafter, once the rout of 1971 was reasonably distant, they hanged the Prime Minister and ushered in yet another dictatorship!

Same happened after 1999 humiliation as well, when Musharraf ‘gifted’ himself to Pakistan.
In case they do go Kamikaze, would they only concentrate on Kafirs in India?

Esp since their missiles can reach Israel?

Heck, the same missiles can even reach China!

Food for thought, no?

Basically, they are well on their way to becoming the entire World’s problem instead of merely being India’s problem. The world too is beginning to realise this. Hence the reluctance to dole out free monies any more. Of course the Ukraine War too has diverted their attention!

For the time being, it suits everyone to keep Bhikharistan on liquid oxygen – on the verge of default being their default setting – so that they are kept busy within!
But remember, this is a civilizational conflict. It will not end with the failure of Pakistan.

It will only end with the failure of the IDEA of Pakistan.

Do read the above statements once again, if you must.

It is THIS that we need to keep in mind as we move ahead to our rightful place in the comity of Nations. The world at large is headed for days of geopolitical uncertainty over the next decade or so. We too are unlikely to remain unaffected.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

It's an excellent thread. I largely agree. I didnt counter some parts of this thread in public for obvious reasons but would state here
1. Interestingly, the average Pakistani citizen is more and more apprehensive of and at some level, even enamoured with the rapid growth that India has achieved. They do realise that India has pulled so far away that there is no way Pakistan can ever hope to catch up anymore.

There are a lot of bakis that dont realize this. Their education levels are poor and they are heavily radicalized. As they say "endia ek gareeb mulak hai, waha bahut gurbat hai". Youtube social media is opening up eyes, but then you cant wake up those who are pretending to be asleep. A turnaround in fortunes is just around the corner. Their geostrategic location will do wonders. Ummah ke mulq will take care of us goes around.


2. "In case they do go Kamikaze, would they only concentrate on Kafirs in India? Esp since their missiles can reach Israel? Heck, the same missiles can even reach China! Food for thought, no?"

Yes. They are not anti kafir, they are anti india. We tend to miss out they have given land to china, and have been in bed with those who have banged them hard, the amrikhans/chinese..can talk more about htat

3. It will only end with the failure of the IDEA of Pakistan.
The failure doesnt happen only externally. Has to happen internally too. Lots of moving parts. There's a term that goes, "Samool nash".
a. Till the time we dont convert some major cities to syria/afghanistan, we really dont defeat the idea of pakistan.
b. Beyond that we also need to start reconversion process too. None of that would be easy.

4. Regarding accusing india of stirring problems
I dont think world will care a bit for them..it didnt in 71 then it wont care now...they know it too..thats why "endia bahut badi maaarkit hai, israel aur umreeka ka dost hai". I think the otherway around happen. They will extract jazia by stirring up troubles in India to extract some form of jazia either domestic (keeping awam busy from roti paai) or foreign (nukes after state collapses). I know u do mention all of this but still.

My viewpoint is the follows that for collapse:
1. Massive artillery/tube capabilties to convert country to syria. Protracted war preps to materially and national psyche wise have a war thats protracted and wears them out more than us.
Post collapse:
2. Prepare an ecosystem to do ghar wapsi of those willing on an immediate basis
3. Build connects with parties to run govt, including military, to run affairs till the time it can be readied for a democratic transition. who runs bakis after post collapse?
4. How to fund all that. Post collapse we will have to do major work and may have to seek international help but i doubt much would come. May be middle east, including Iran is one where i expect. In fact Iran could ask/take some parts of balochistan too as they too have sistan. I dont have much hopes from afghan side. China is the most difficult piece of puzzle. what happens to COK does it stay silent, does it actively play a role in preventing this is the biggest lynchpin in my opinion. I still believe they moved in 2020 to delay the imminent.
5. Geographical realities:
ArjunPandit
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

Another viewpoint on PK is they have always negotiated from gun on their head. last time it was nukes...this time around it could be europeans or sheiks that if they collapse the hordes will be landing in ksa, qatar, uae, turkey and then europe. At least Erdogan has that tendency to threat europe. my sense is that pakistan will drag along for a couple of more decades even though it outlived one of its purpose even in last century (to prevent sea access to russia). the other purpose to tie/needle/contain india will remain as long as neutralization of nukes and the threat of refugees is not done
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

Kancha, The idea of Pakistan started as follows.

After the 1857 war, the British wanted to replicate the Mughal administration to stabilize their rule over India.
This meant civil and revenue with Hindus and military with Muslims.
And you see that is how the vast majority of native administration was staffed. Yes in Muslim-majority provinces there were cross-over components.
The crucial 1880 to 1910 period saw political awakening and the Muslims latched on to the idea of separate electorates etc which is like dhimmi status in Ottoman Turkey.
As British power waned they wanted to create a sort of Crown territory in North West India to be able to intervene in oil-rich Iran, and Soviet Central Asia.
The Muslim politicians latched on to this desire for a British protectorate. You can see how ML behaved.

The Bengal Muslims were not in the picture but bandwagon to create Pakistan.
After the 1988 end of the Cold War there is no Western political interest in Pakistan, IOW the raisins disappeared.
However, TSP became the frontline all lie in War on Terror and managed to fool a generation of US warriors like Colin Powell etc. And aid was poured in to keep them afloat.
After 2008 financial collapse there is no money.
Yet the Pak elite has not changed their behavior.
Bangladesh Taka is worth 2 Pak rupees!
So Western support for Idea of Pakistan is long gone.
As the Indian market grows bigger even the business interests will put the cold warriors in a deep freeze.
Add rise of China.
See how SD Spokesman Ned Price brushed aside Pak reporter's question on BBC propmentary.
Now the masses also are suffering after the floods.
Its a matter of time for them to lose the idea of Pakistan too.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Anoop »



An interesting distinction between the extant failure of the State (institutions, economy, politics) and the still intact idea of a nation.

I do disagree with Gen. Shankar that the intelligentsia is holding the idea of Pakistan alive, because the intelligentsia has no connection with its people.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

It's not the intelligentsia or elite thats holding Pakistan together.
It's still the Pak Army.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

Paki system is so bad,that Taliban are attacking them to give message they are different from them.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Guddu »

Found this nugget, Mr.Sood suggests that the army has orders to allow POK (GB) people to cross the border and seek shelter in Indian Kashmir. This creates a Bangladesh like situation and resultant entry of India in POK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WSLdXl3oyc
Last edited by Guddu on 23 Feb 2023 06:45, edited 1 time in total.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanjaykumar »

If they are recognised as citizens of Indian lands of course.

Weed out the panjabis and pathans. And other undesirables.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Manish_P »

sanjaykumar wrote:...
Weed out the panjabis and pathans. And other undesirables.
How can that be done?
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanjaykumar »

India has granular details on this population, if it is planning on absorbing the population along with the land.


Any takeover will mean co-opting those at the upper reaches of the social hierarchy. So if India does not know now it will be in a position to know then.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Cyrano »

Its been nearly 9 years and even BIFs haven't been fully neutered yet. Variants like dravidianism, Khalistanis are still rearing their heads. We have had endless discussions and arguments for and against going hard after this menace, we should get to 5T or 10T first ityadi ityadi. May be we are playing a long game but there isn't often an iron hand inside the velvet glove. Whether we like it or not, thats our reality.

Now imagine adding 230 millions of rabid hungry jehadis controlled by a scheming gazwa e hind elite to the mix. That is the cost of adding all that land if we somehow take over Pak in "this is not an era for war" times. What does that do to vote bank calculations? Does the BJP want this? Do the Indian people want this?

Pakis have swallowed the poison pill and have become a visha (not)kanya. Their ruling elite may even have deliberately let it slide into a snake pit as an insurance policy because if they cant have strategic depth, they can at least promise strategic death to anyone who screws them for good.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by KL Dubey »

First of all, any breakup of Pak is unlikely to occur in a neat and clean manner following the current provincial borders....it will be a mess.

As for Bharat, we need a comprehensive strategy ("Operation PakWhack") planned in advance, that can be mobilized quickly when the time comes.

Here is the population map of Pakland (its 5 years old but does the job):

Image

POK, GB, and KP (northern part) have very little population....a total of about 6-7M together.

Balochistan is also very sparsely populated...about 13M in a huge area.

Most densely populated areas are in Punjab, particularly the districts bordering PB and RJ.

So here is a possible plan...not strictly in chronological order, some things can proceed in parallel.

- Most important thing to do is to take over GB and POK, and integrate them in India. The population of these areas is already willing for this.

- Then the borders should be sealed. No refugees will be allowed. Alternate plans should be announced (see below).

- The western and southern parts of KP will be a bloody mess of various tribal groups fighting each other. We should reach an agreement with the Afghans to divide up the KP area....north and east parts going to India, the rest going to the Afghans.

- Balochistan and Sindh should be provided direct Indian aid. Balochistan should become an independent nation with Indian help (an agreement similar to Bhutan). Sindh should become some kind of Indian protectorate or UT.

- As for Punjab, we should encourage factional groups to fight each other to the bitter end. We are absolutely not responsible for any of these people. We should provide humanitarian aid (via UN) that is routed through JK or Balochistan to the northwest (interior) parts of Pak Punjab, where "refugee camps" can be set up, i.e. the flow of refugees will go west, not towards India.

- In addition to the border fences, we should constantly shell the border districts to discourage adventurers from trying to cross over.

- As a result of the above, the border districts in the east will become depopulated. We can then annex these areas and settle Indians there.
* We can easily expand the Rajasthan border 50 miles west all the way from Bahawalpur to Rann of Kutch - these areas are desert.
* Further north we should be able to annex border areas east of the Ravi and the Satluj....such as Lahore, Kasur, Bahawalnagar.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

KL Dubey,

Anything apart from PoK and GB hold little value. We have a hard time settling Hindus in our own territory so pak territory is out of the question. JMT.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by uddu »

Baluchistan Sindhudesh should not be left out. A large problem of the issues in India is due to Pakistan and the smaller the Pakistan gets, the better. Other than some very small section of Punjab. Leaving Pakistan intact with large area will only make the problem worse as time goes by. Pakistani ideology and land should keep reducing in size over a period of time. There is no other solution to it.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Manish_P »

KL Dubey wrote:...

- Most important thing to do is to take over GB and POK, and integrate them in India. The population of these areas is already willing for this.

...
Not really. What they have expressed is they want to split from Pak if their demands are not met. Typical entitled kashmiriyat at the core.

Forget indians outside kashmir, we have not yet resettled the KPs in the valley safely.. the KMs are still playing taqqiya by behaving nice as long as the kafirs are tourists and bring/give them kufr money.

Earlier during the con-goons time it was plain jiziya in the form of grants, packages, land. Now after Modi/BJP took over and threatened to stop the gravy train it is in the form of aid/investment to set-up industries to help employ the youth so that they may not become militants. Never mind if the youth in the rest of the country don't show the same inclination. Typical Gun-to-head behaviour we are very familiar with.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

uddu wrote:Baluchistan Sindhudesh should not be left out. A large problem of the issues in India is due to Pakistan and the smaller the Pakistan gets, the better. Other than some very small section of Punjab. Leaving Pakistan intact with large area will only make the problem worse as time goes by. Pakistani ideology and land should keep reducing in size over a period of time. There is no other solution to it.
India has enough problems. Stay away from a burning house.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by KL Dubey »

Manish_P wrote:
Not really. What they have expressed is they want to split from Pak if their demands are not met. Typical entitled kashmiriyat at the core.
That's good enough. Clearly if we are talking about Pak breaking up, then there is no question of their "demands being met by the Pak state". This is not a "goodness of heart" thing on either side, just in case you mistook my post. Entitlements in POK will disappear in some time, as is happening in J&K. GB is a different matter and will be merged with Ladakh, not J&K.
Forget indians outside kashmir, we have not yet resettled the KPs in the valley safely.
That is not the main topic of this thread. Kashmir valley history is not the same as border districts of Pak.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by KL Dubey »

RoyG wrote:KL Dubey,

Anything apart from PoK and GB hold little value. We have a hard time settling Hindus in our own territory so pak territory is out of the question. JMT.
The mountainous parts of KP (all the way down to the Khyber pass) are very important strategically and economically (massive tourism potential and trade corridor with central asia).

Like I said, a large swath of Pak territory bordering RJ and GJ is unpopulated/desert. Moving the border forward by 50 miles in these areas is a smart thing to do with very little effort.

As for the Punjab border districts, one can debate the value.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by SRajesh »

^^ Dubeyji
apart from erstwhile state of J&K nothing should be touched.
to Paraphrase Fronteir G 'You have left us with the wolves' and with wolve they should stay.
Claiming Sindhudesh-Mohajir who left had rancid hatred to the indic folks and after their experience under the Pkjabi yoke you think they have changed Nada nothing. also remember there is a big hoarde waiting in the 'Geneva Camp' on the eastern side. You let them in and they will take it out on the hindu whether Bongs or not!(no disprepct here mods)
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Cyrano »

Though it's our backyard, because of closeness to Afghanistan and Iran, Central Asia, Xingiang the US, Russia and China will not let India do as it pleases there. It's this geo location that pakis exploited ham fistedly for so long. At best we can grab PoK but the rest of it is highly doubtful.

The west will put boots in Pakistan, install a puppet and pour money once again to keep a broken flush toilet for their own interests in the region and to contain India.

India might be ok with it as long as it does not overflow across the border.

Akhand Bharat is just some nostalgic babble which has limited use in a specific context. To quote NaMo who was himself quoting Gurajada Appa Rao "Desham antey matti kaadoy Desham ante Manushuloy" A country is not made by soil it's made by its people".

As Indian influence spreads and spreads, we are extending beyond our geographical boundaries. When the time comes we too will find additional states like the US finds 51st states all over the world. Cold calculus drives strategy even if some times cloaked in hot emotion.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

Few thoughts
1. Some areas of POK/GB must be taken
2. Jaisalmer/Barmer Axis should become bigger (wider/longer). For two reasons, it will bring key railways/roads/water canals in direct arty fire. Gives us leverage in other areas (trade, foreign policy economics) too.
3. need rethink on sir creek area as well. Remember some parts of this area were negotiated away by brits before op grandslam and gibraltar

As for population, all the three areas are sparsely populated and any military operation over them does not cross baki redline which essentially is punjab.
Without ghar wapsi and proper internment camps thinking this is a suicide. NRC camps would be a good learning exercise I am sure
Now
1. west putting boots: West didnt put boots in their backyard in Ukraine, unlikely it will in PK. They will follow the same MO, fund terrorists here and there. PK has been a good errand boy, but will most likely be sacrificed like friends of munna bhaiya in mirzapur
2. India is cranking their MIC up when the time comes war weary west will not bother esp when they will be busy with China or other crisis. There are enough fault lines and pliable ashrafiyas to run the country for a decade even under behind the scenes Indian/hindu control.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Cyrano »

My take is the west will put boots in Pak to "safeguard nooks" or "prevent conflict from arising with its friend India" or "humanitarian/peace keeping mission" or "to prevent taliban takeover of Pak" or some such specious excuse.

India doesnt have interests in Pak like Russia has in Ukraine, and has reasonably friendly relations with the west not to get into a war with the west over Pakistan. Grabbing PoK or a few other small areas needs a war with Pak to get triggered first. And perhaps India can accomplish this before "international peace keepers" step in to prevent the conflict from escalating into nooklear games, ostensibly in everyone's interest and with UN support.

Actually this might be an acceptable scenario for India. Pick the cherries in needs and get the others to guard the rotten tree stump and pay for it. In short and medium run seems ok. In the long run we can play as situations evolve.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Pratyush »

No body is going to put boots on the ground to secure the Nooks. Unless those boots are Indian.

The west has neither the morality nor the muscles to get in TSP in order to secure the Nooks.

Given the way TSP has made the country ungovernable. It might be for the best to let it devolve into Somalia of the late 80s and early 90s.

That should reduce the population by 25 to 30%.

What remains will be much more amenable to Indian domination.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Cyrano »

When faced with imminent extinction Paki gernails will be the first to go and beg unkil to come in, to ensure their own survival. They will even stage false flags to make sure India doesn't get it's hands on the islamic bum.

Despite current appearances the US hasn't given up on Munna. It's the only remaining access point to ME and central Asia, and gain some sort of leverage on India.

When we see the years of preparation that went into Ukraine, this doesn't seem far fetched to me. It isn't risk free, it isn't easy but that won't stop the US. Especially because they can't achieve anything useful in Ukraine, and therefore can't just give up entirely on Eurasia and still hope to go after China solely from the Pacific side.

It's no longer a sensible world we are in, Neocons are back with a vengeance.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ernest »

Pratyush wrote: Given the way TSP has made the country ungovernable. It might be for the best to let it devolve into Somalia of the late 80s and early 90s.

That should reduce the population by 25 to 30%.

What remains will be much more amenable to Indian domination.
This is the most predictable and manageable scenario. We should exploit their faultlines and break it into multiple small countries that we can control. No need to mix their rabid population with ours. Get POK (inc GB), and expand borders in uninhabited areas and no more. By bringing them under Indian state, we'd be doing them a favor and importing the monsters that they've created.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

Pratyush wrote:No body is going to put boots on the ground to secure the Nooks. Unless those boots are Indian.

The west has neither the morality nor the muscles to get in TSP in order to secure the Nooks.

Given the way TSP has made the country ungovernable. It might be for the best to let it devolve into Somalia of the late 80s and early 90s.

That should reduce the population by 25 to 30%.

What remains will be much more amenable to Indian domination.
very well said for the first part. last 2 statements are imp
1. reduce pop by a quarter to third? How? Civil war, war with india??
2. I doubt that is feasible in our lifetime simply because of religious indoctrination
CalvinH
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by CalvinH »

US wont let go the Munna fully. Deep state think decades ahead and after Russia and China are done it would be the turn of India. US will need the Munna then.

Lets see how this play out in short run. Next 4-5 months. Even in the best case scenario (world shows up to save Pakistan economy) Pakistan will continue to go down the path to become Afghanistan or Somalia. India needs to play well and intervene strategically to take the game away from US.
SBajwa
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by SBajwa »

ArjunPandit wrote:Few thoughts
1. Some areas of POK/GB must be taken
2. Jaisalmer/Barmer Axis should become bigger (wider/longer). For two reasons, it will bring key railways/roads/water canals in direct arty fire. Gives us leverage in other areas (trade, foreign policy economics) too.
3. need rethink on sir creek area as well. Remember some parts of this area were negotiated away by brits before op grandslam and gibraltar

As for population, all the three areas are sparsely populated and any military operation over them does not cross baki redline which essentially is punjab.
Without ghar wapsi and proper internment camps thinking this is a suicide. NRC camps would be a good learning exercise I am sure
Now
1. west putting boots: West didnt put boots in their backyard in Ukraine, unlikely it will in PK. They will follow the same MO, fund terrorists here and there. PK has been a good errand boy, but will most likely be sacrificed like friends of munna bhaiya in mirzapur
2. India is cranking their MIC up when the time comes war weary west will not bother esp when they will be busy with China or other crisis. There are enough fault lines and pliable ashrafiyas to run the country for a decade even under behind the scenes Indian/hindu control.
Before letting USA/China/Russia/etc to become major player in our backyard vis-a-vis breakaway parts of Pakistan.
Sindh/Baluchistan/etc could be made as part of Indian federation with no or limited access to rest of India for at least 20 years of provincial period. These breakaway parts could send their representation to Indian parliament for things like foreign diplomatic relations, communications, defense, economy, education/Culture (especial emphasis on their own language/culture/etc), sports/entertainment, railways, taxes, etc with less rights than other states.

IMHO! Government of India should not let USA/China/Russia/etc to become major player in the area that is currently pakistan.
KL Dubey
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by KL Dubey »

Cyrano wrote:Though it's our backyard, because of closeness to Afghanistan and Iran, Central Asia, Xingiang the US, Russia and China will not let India do as it pleases there. It's this geo location that pakis exploited ham fistedly for so long.
POK is easy. Getting GB first is the key part. As a result, the PRC will have to forget about Pakistan. If the country is breaking up, PRC interests there are no longer valid. The PLA is not a fighting army. At the most we will get more border skirmishes.

Russia will do nothing, if not support India.

USA will not put any boots on the ground not risk the growing economic and strategic relations with India.

Most importantly, the world will respect India's strength. It will be an acid test for India - can we shape/control our neighborhood, or sit silently while other play around in the neighborhood. When Pak breakup starts, it is the opportunity for India to establish itself as a new pole.
Akhand Bharat is just some nostalgic babble which has limited use in a specific context. To quote NaMo who was himself quoting Gurajada Appa Rao "Desham antey matti kaadoy Desham ante Manushuloy" A country is not made by soil it's made by its people".
Quotes should not be over-interpreted. A country may be made by its people, OK. However, the same people have elected a government to make decisions. Akhand Bharat is a real objective and not a fantasy.

Don't assume that posts were made in "hot emotion". Cold calculus should begin now, not be kicked down the road.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by S_Madhukar »

Endgame without punishment for all the brown Salwars is unthinkable. I am not bothered about the aam abdul but the gernails who before running away abroad should be brought to justice. In fact that should be the precursor to any overt or covert ops planned. That should be the price aam abdul should be willing to pay as a lesson for the future and to prevent future snakes from raising their hoods. Let their Abduls halaal the salwars without public memory of which these shenanigans will be repeated.

Looking at current Kstani issue abroad it is only a matter of time before these absconded gernails double down on taqeeya and rewrite so called glorious M history and we have seeds for future discontent sown again while they will be even more secure abroad not having to worry about any more national problems. Plus with their loot western countries will welcome them with open arms and wallets giving asylum to so called secular modern Bakis.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Manish_P »

S_Madhukar wrote:...I am not bothered about the aam abdul but the gernails who before running away abroad should be brought to justice...
We should not ignore the danger of the aam abduls and give them any passes.. remember these guys are the 2nd gen of the Zia 'islamist' generation. It's not years but decades of detoxification from Kufr hate before these abduls are anywhere close to aam.
Pratyush
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Pratyush »

ArjunPandit wrote: Snip...

very well said for the first part. last 2 statements are imp
1. reduce pop by a quarter to third? How? Civil war, war with india??
2. I doubt that is feasible in our lifetime simply because of religious indoctrination
1) By mass starvation and disease.

2) when the population is starving and dying by the millions. Religious indoctrination is only going to increase suffering and reduce the death toll.

The old and young population will be reduced. Maternal mortality rates will rise due to lack of facilities. Thereby further reducing population.

What will remain will be dangerous mass of uneducated men as canon fodder.

These men can be dealt with using force.
ramana
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

Some things to think about.

https://scholars-stage.org/akbar-ahmed- ... bal-order/
AKBAR AHMED ON TERRORISM AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE TRIBAL ORDER
15 October 2013

Last week I penned a two–post series on the purpose of and underlying reasons for the savage terrorist attacks radical Islamic groups have launched across the world. I argued that these attacks were not “senseless” acts of violence, nor merely the results of fanatic Islamic fundamentalism, but a reaction to the collapse of traditional tribal society that defined the old Islamic order.

If Malise Ruthven‘s New York Review of Books review of Akbar Ahmed‘s newest book, The Thistle and the Drone, accurately represents its content, then the esteemed professor presents a stunningly similar argument:

“In contrast to Obama and his advisers, who identify “ideological extremism” as the primary motive for terror, Ahmed looks to the complex interactions between national state systems and tribal identities, as the latter react to the imposition of state authority. Like Hadji Murad, tribal leaders are torn between collaboration and resistance. While bin Laden himself may have become an ideologue, driven by a vision of global jihad against America, the Asiris and Yemenis who signed up as his “muscle hijackers” were motivated, he suggests, more by local considerations of honor and revenge, the usual responses of tribes that feel themselves threatened….

In this, as in numerous other settings, Ahmed puts his finger on the crucial linkage connecting the localisms of tribal conflicts with the broader Islamic notion of global jihad. His theme is not some vaguely defined “clash of civilizations” but rather the clash between metropolitan centers and rural peripheries that is internal to all modern civilizations—whether these be Islamic, Western, Russian, or Chinese. He provides numerous examples to show that the “thistles” of Tolstoy’s metaphor are to be found in a wide variety of regions, including Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and Pakistan’s northwest frontier, as well as Berber North Africa, Nigeria, and Aceh in Indonesia.

Ahmed produces an impressive body of data to support his argument that tribal systems are coming under attack everywhere from the forces of the modernizing state. With regard to Waziristan, for example, where he served as a Pakistani political agent before entering academic life, he finds that
every aspect of life—religious… and political leadership, customs, and codes—is in danger of being turned upside down. The particles that formed the kaleidoscope of history and remained stationary for so long have now been shaken about in bewildering patterns, with no telling when and how they will settle into some recognizable forms.


The linkage with Islam, he suggests, is more symbolic than religious or ideological. In many Muslim societies the tribes acquire prestige through claimed (if questionable) genealogical descent from the Prophet Muhammad. In these patrilineal societies the Islamic identity thus sanctioned confers legitimacy on practices that may differ significantly from the Islamic norms applied elsewhere. For example, the Pukhtunwali, or tribal code, of the Pukhtun people of Pakistan and Afghanistan combines notions of hospitality and revenge with the “constant compulsion to safeguard what is normatively understood as honor.” The same code denies inheritance to women and permits interest on loans, contrary to sharia law.

Although the Pukhtunwali tends to be glorified over other forms of identity “including Islam itself,” Pukhtuns do not recognize any contradiction with Islam. Their claimed link to the Prophet through a common ancestor is, Ahmed writes, a “cultural master stroke” that provides every local custom with a “religious cover, however tenuous.” Hence interference with local custom, or the writ of local elders, can be represented as an attack on Islam that justifies jihad.

Ahmed argues, convincingly enough, that the acts of terror or violence directed at the US or its allies are set off as much by revenge based on values of tribal honor as by extremist ideologies.” (emphasis added) [1]

....
In a sense, Pakistan is getting torn up due to post-modernism where everything solid melts into the air.
And look at Indian Muslims they too have a tenuous link to Prophet via the Ashrafs and are the decides of what constitutes a threat to Islam and thus drive the jihad.
In fact there aare more Quereshis in India than all of the Middle East!!!
CalvinH
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by CalvinH »

Its pure ideological from the top to bottom. Islam may have been used by these tribal societies to keep their order and culture but if you look at this symbiotic association for 1000+ year its bound to create ideologically driven extremist at every layer who will believe in Islam more than their own tribal culture and will not hesitate to take out head of their own tribes for this. Doing something in west is easy in comparison.

Coming to Indian Muslims, they dont have any tribal identities. Most are converts and are faking various identities from Syeds to Qureish. Because their is no link that really goes back to a common relationship or place they dont use these identities to come together. They always come out with Islam as their main identity.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanjaykumar »

Brilliant. Nagas and Mizos have been observed bringing down city towers as well. It is not their religion of course. Just the post modernist disruption of tribal societal structures.
ArjunPandit
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

ramana guru, i think it is a ruse to protect their core ideology from questioning..saying like it's not religion but broader/deeper than that..basically anything but religion...and that blind is their weakness and strength..
ernest
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ernest »

yep, it is always a fault of some social structure like caste, never the one true ideology.
One only has to look at the stats of urban jihadis joining ISIS to throw this hypothesis in the trash
CalvinH
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by CalvinH »

The tribal order may be breaking because tribal societies are facing a resource crunch. Growing population means pressure on resources and they can no longer loot and sustain in the "modern" world. That's the only way modernity is impacting the tribal order.

Plus in state like Pakistan the tribal societies are not getting benefits of natural resources they have. The resources from Gas to minerals are taken by the state and tribes get nothing.

For Pakistan the tribes in NWFP are too close to Islamabad. Heard that TTP has provided a video of Islamabad from the nearby Mountains with the caption that they are coming. If Pakistani state crumbles than Peshawar-Attock-Abottabad will become the axis after which total lawlessness will reign on the western side.
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