Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

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A_Gupta
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by A_Gupta »

If Pakistan's Army indeed becomes subordinate to a civilian government, then Pakistan can recover. Maybe.

The civilian government will face a dilemma, however. If it is actively hostile to India, then the Army is automatically enabled to regain its supremacy. If the civilian government is neutral then it loses a paki-unifying issue.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Vayutuvan »

A_Gupta wrote:If Pakistan's Army indeed becomes subordinate to a civilian government, then Pakistan can recover. Maybe.

The civilian government will face a dilemma, however. If it is actively hostile to India, then the Army is automatically enabled to regain its supremacy. If the civilian government is neutral then it loses a paki-unifying issue.
What?!
Cyrano
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Cyrano »

None of the "leaders" in Pak have any vision or competence to pull the country out of the shithole it find itself in. PA might be very unwilling to take over the country and establish military rule now, because large sections of the population are violently hostile to the army, and if they are in charge they cant blame anyone else for the mess.

When the current crisis resolves in some way or the other and a new govt is established, under Dimmy or anyone else, the shithole would only have gotten deeper thanks to the tumbling pak rupee and empty coffers. The best they can do is a fresh round of begging to "help Pak democracy on the path to stabilisation" argument and buy a few months of lifeline. And then what ? Same dead end as now.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

A_Gupta wrote:If Pakistan's Army indeed becomes subordinate to a civilian government, then Pakistan can recover. Maybe.

The civilian government will face a dilemma, however. If it is actively hostile to India, then the Army is automatically enabled to regain its supremacy. If the civilian government is neutral then it loses a paki-unifying issue.
Subordination has nothing to do with it.

It's the idea of what Pakistan is and the origin of it's founding which will pit it permanently against India.

Civilian or military will make no diff.
A_Gupta
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by A_Gupta »

> It's the idea of what Pakistan is and the origin of it's founding which will pit it permanently against India.

Which means the Army remains in control, as the chief defender of that ideology.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by CalvinH »

ramana wrote:CalvinH do you have the names?
Which names?
RoyG
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

A_Gupta wrote:> It's the idea of what Pakistan is and the origin of it's founding which will pit it permanently against India.

Which means the Army remains in control, as the chief defender of that ideology.
To some degree. Bangladesh civilian gov is stronger than military and dgfi but the protection of Islamic identity prevents a cultural merger with India.
sanman
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanman »

What's the truth behind these nutty rumors of Imran's wife Bushra Bibi and her alleged "black magic"?

https://www.truescoopnews.com/newsdetai ... hans-chair

Image

Reminding me of Melisandre from Game of Thrones :-?

Image
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by g.sarkar »

Sanmanji,
The story of the marriage of Kaptaan with Pinky Peerni is as good as anything George R.R. Martin could produce. Martin got dragons in his story, but no Djinns.
Gautam
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanman »

If Pakistan collapses into chaos and produces refugees -- then what does India do, if large numbers of Pak refugees start trying to cross the border into India?
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by gakakkad »

^ refugees should only be taken in accordance to CAA. Also I believe the fence between the border is electrified? I highly doubt they can cross a highly militarized border . The international community will need to take a bulk of refugees as India is a poor country onlee with per Capita income of 2500. :mrgreen:
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Pratyush »

Do not underestimate the power of the WKK brigade and the bleeding heart BJP supporters.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Anujan »

sanman wrote:If Pakistan collapses into chaos and produces refugees -- then what does India do, if large numbers of Pak refugees start trying to cross the border into India?
Instead, we can help administer them where they are. Say parts of Pakjab till the Indus, Sindh, PoK, GB etc

Make sure that the administration is well run, disarm the armed yahoos.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by pravula »

Do what Turkey did probably. Setup a 20-30 mile deep safe zone inside Pak.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by williams »

Anujan wrote:
sanman wrote:If Pakistan collapses into chaos and produces refugees -- then what does India do, if large numbers of Pak refugees start trying to cross the border into India?
Instead, we can help administer them where they are. Say parts of Pakjab till the Indus, Sindh, PoK, GB etc

Make sure that the administration is well run, disarm the armed yahoos.
India has to intervene if there is a complete collapse. Especially we need to secure the nukes before it reaches the wrong hands. Break the state down into logical pieces and administer international aid until each of the smaller pieces can stand on its own. We are in the big boys club whether we like it or not.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanman »

I'm again feeling like Pakistan is heading the way of North Korea, where the ruling elites cling tightly to power while the population starve underneath them.

But North Korea is a hermit state on a geographically isolated peninsula. Pakistan does not share those geographic characteristics.
And geography is relevant -- that's why there's a 'geo' in geopolitics.

So would Pakistan-as-NorthKorea be sustainable? Can there really be a Pyongyang on the Indus?
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

Anujan wrote:
sanman wrote:If Pakistan collapses into chaos and produces refugees -- then what does India do, if large numbers of Pak refugees start trying to cross the border into India?
Instead, we can help administer them where they are. Say parts of Pakjab till the Indus, Sindh, PoK, GB etc

Make sure that the administration is well run, disarm the armed yahoos.
Pakistan Army isn't going anywhere.

It has a pervasive presence like the Indian civil service.

Anyone who parachutes in and wants to get anything done has to use an efficient machine to make money and execute projects.

There is NO institution in Pakistan with this kind of capability apart from the Pak Army.

The only changes that I see happening is that the rule book which is formulated internally within the PA is being changed. This isn't a negotiation with the so called 'civil society'. Any changes within civil society should be seen as a consequence of this process and not the other way around.

If the Pakistan army wants to survive it has to puppeteer, deflect, and hide. Modifying your appearance doesn't equate to losing power. It just means being more creative in the way you rule.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by A_Gupta »



Major Gaurav Arya to Gen. Asim Munir - I had great satisfaction in what happened in Pakistan. Except the madness that caused Pakis to dishonor shaheed soldiers. The Indian Army honors the fallen foe.

Five things to help fix Pakistan:
1. Stop feeding fake history to Pakis.
2. End dual passport.
3. Split the ISI into internal and external agencies like in every other country, stop its interference in internal civilian affairs.
4. Make ISI civilian controlled
5. Pay attention to the genuine problems in the other (non-Punjab) provinces.

Imran Khan talks against America but takes actions that are against China. Exile him to Saudi.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by A_Gupta »

Pakistani interviewer Shaila Khan asked Professor Ishtiaq Ahmed how much ahead of Pakistan is India, in terms of years to catch up. The professor is on a tour of India.

He thought a bit, and said, in his estimate, fifty years.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Manish_P »

^ Sounds about right... and they are going backwards even as India is surging ahead.

Soon at least 5 states in India should have their GDP more than pakistan.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by A_Gupta »

After I wrote the above, I thought I had better check it. Here it is, at 1157 seconds in.
https://youtu.be/eSoLxDU_3eU?t=1157
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanman »

Former army chief and lord of Pakistan General Bajwa is heckled on the streets of France by unknown Afghan:



How the mighty have fallen.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Prem »

As per Orrya Maqbool Jaan's dream , Prophet Muhammad personally handed Jernali to Bajwa with his own hands that Bajwa wwere to be ceritifed true soldier of Islam, estabslishing new Madiina. :wink:
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

sanman wrote:Former army chief and lord of Pakistan General Bajwa is heckled on the streets of France by unknown Afghan:



How the mighty have fallen.

He hasn’t fallen. He’s rich.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sanman »

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Haresh »

sanman wrote:Former army chief and lord of Pakistan General Bajwa is heckled on the streets of France by unknown Afghan:



How the mighty have fallen.
90 French troops were killed in Afghanistan.
Why was the turd even allowed in ?
Have the NATO nations no self respect ?
ramana
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

Lots of quotes about Pakistan by KS garu

http://reflections-shivanand.blogspot.c ... india.html
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by RoyG »

ramana wrote:Lots of quotes about Pakistan by KS garu

http://reflections-shivanand.blogspot.c ... india.html
Ramana,

Was KS considered a revolutionary thinker? I’ve read some of his interviews and work and it doesn’t impress me. Maybe I just haven’t read enough or I’m looking at him in the wrong way.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

https://t.co/zX5nPZypCB

Need full paper
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Nsmith »

ramana wrote: 21 Sep 2023 21:01 https://t.co/zX5nPZypCB

Need full paper
The Paradox of the Pakistan Army

For all its many faults, the Pakistan army is becoming ever more important as the one institution that can resist the centrifugal forces endangering Pakistan’s future. However, the army needs to step back from its confrontation with Imran Khan and look for some form of understanding with India.

There is a lot that is wrong about the Pakistan army. It interferes in politics too much. It makes bad foreign policy choices. It blocks peace feelers with India. It accounts for too much of GDP. It is too deeply entrenched in the economy. Its human rights record is mixed. However, it is now the main institution holding Pakistan together. In a country with nuclear weapons, the survival of a disciplined Pakistan army matters to all of us. Ironically it should matter to India most of all because the disintegration of Pakistan would provoke a regional catastrophe. Meanwhile, there are significant changes happening in the army which could have major consequences.

The Pakistan army has decided that Imran Khan is unfit to be the next prime minister, so the former cricketer has been locked away and will play no part in the elections due to take place in the next few months. This is a big gamble by General Headquarters in Rawalpindi and the newish Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir. On one level, it seems to have paid off. There has been no repeat of the widespread rioting of 9 May even when Imran was sentenced in August. Whether his adoring followers, beset by inflationary pressures, will forget him remains to be seen. It is hard to imagine that a technocratic government or another lacklustre Sharif/Bhutto coalition (which anyway seems unlikely to hold together) will excite the population to go out and vote; the probability, therefore, is that the next government will be elected by a feeble percentage of Pakistan’s burgeoning population.

Pakistan’s massive population growth is one of the factors putting the future of the state in peril. It currently stands at 241 million, over six times its size at independence in 1947. The rate of growth places enormous pressures on services, particularly education where Islamist madrassas are only too happy to fill the void in the state system. Levels of unemployment are bound to stoke unrest as is the continuing rise of food prices. This is doubtless why the army is worried by a populist politician who, it believes, places personal popularity above sound governance.

The other disturbing trend in Pakistan is the centrifugal pull of the four provinces (and the fifth and sixth if you include the disputed territories of Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir). There used to be a time when the Pakistan Muslim League, although largely Punjabi, had appeal across all six areas. Similarly, the then centre-left Pakistan People’s Party, although based out of Sindh, could harvest votes across the country. This no longer applies. A leading observer has described Pakistan ‘as a frail polity, a battered body with a badly bruised soul’.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan provinces still bear the mental scars of recent insurgencies and the war in Afghanistan. Sindh not only hosts the traditional rivalry between Sindhis and Mohajirs (descendants of refugees from India in the later 1940s), but now has a substantial Pashtun population. Inadequate housing, poor services and congestion make Karachi a powder keg. Even in the Punjab, traditionally the stable hub of Pakistan, the pressures of population are taking their toll. Climate change will bite early in Pakistan, adding to the increasing phenomenon of Pakistani migration.

The army cannot be blamed for the population explosion but must share culpability for Pakistan’s failure to develop a stable democratic system. Constant coups and interventions over 75 years have led politicians to make hay while the sun shines. However, Pakistan is not the only democracy where levels of governance have declined markedly in recent years as populations fall prey to populist slogans.

In these circumstances, a former general told me that ‘it is time to prioritise governance over democracy’. This suggests a period of nominally civilian government under the strict control of the army. Ironically, this might help the economy. The leading economist Shahid Javed Burki has demonstrated that the economy tends to perform better under military supervision. This is in spite of the army tending to ring-fence the defence budget, which currently stands at $6.27 billion – amounting to some 3.83% of GDP (2021 figure). This is about double the global average. The reason for the high level of spending is both the perceived threat from India and the very real risk of terrorism from Afghanistan.

But the army is less adept at foreign policy. Rawalpindi is instinctively resistant to reaching an agreement with India over Kashmir. Both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, former prime ministers of Pakistan, felt hamstrung by the army when it came to discussions with India, and even former President Pervez Musharraf, who came within a whisker of achieving a deal in 2007 and 2008, failed to inform the Corps Commanders of the details and would probably have faced opposition from them.

As for Afghanistan, it was the army that was mainly responsible for the Taliban-only government that seized power in August 2021. All other regional governments and the international community wanted a power-sharing arrangement. The tragedy of this huge miscalculation by Rawalpindi is that Pakistan’s best prospect for economic recovery would be to exploit its perfect geographical position between India, Iran, China and the Central Asian Republics as an ideal corridor for trade. For as long as the Taliban is in power in Afghanistan, that idea looks like a non-starter.

Yet for all its faults, the Pakistan army is the one institution that inculcates a spirit of national unity. Its structure is still based on the old British (post-1857 Mutiny) system of having a range of ethnicities in each military unit. Although Punjabis tend to dominate, there is a substantial role for Pashtuns, Baluchis and Sindhis. Although the action against Imran has been unpopular at rank-and-file level, there is no serious possibility of disloyalty, let alone mutiny, in the army. This is reassuring for a country that possesses over 170 nuclear warheads.

However, the army is changing in ways that make the future hard to predict. The Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi elites no longer send their sons to the army. Instead, they despatch them to university in the US and UK (almost never China) and into the professions or business. This has broken the link between the civilian elite and the army. Instead, army officers are now from lower middle class and even more humble backgrounds. They are not Islamist (which was a Western fear in the 1990s and 2000s), but they are less in sympathy with the tiny ruling class in Pakistan and its Westernised habits including democracy. They are trained to be hostile to India, but they are also wary of being sucked too deeply into China’s orbit.

The other change in the Pakistan army is that it too is becoming less democratic. As late as 2001, President Musharraf experienced significant opposition from his Corps Commanders but nowadays the COAS is becoming less ‘first among equals’ and more dictatorial. This could be unfortunate because Pakistan needs good decisions after decades of poor governance.

The army is more unpopular inside Pakistan than at any time since 1947. Instead of doubling down against Imran Khan, it needs to step back and reconsider its approach to domestic politics.

Above all, the army should be persuaded to support a new relationship with India, the single act which could transform Pakistan’s economic and political fortunes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi might not seem like the most obvious partner for peace, but he has made a number of positive gestures towards Pakistan in the past, and in his expected third term, he will be looking for some legacy achievements.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ramana »

Thanks NSmith!
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by NRao »

Very interesting take. Claims KP has fallen!!

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