Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 06 Mar 2019 22:47

Ok yakherder, and yIPman, back to what, how and afterwards of napak. Not why. If somone asks why i would request to napakdeaf

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Mar 2019 23:05

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/compare-countries/

deselect all countries left and select india and pak only.
then you can check around 200 factors

TSP has been flatlining on allmost all factors for the last 20 years .....

just to give an example their rate of growth and absolute number in LPG, electricity and coal consumption has been abysmal while ours has been galloping. It looks like there is almost no LPG use in rural households and burning of wood biomass is contributing to increasing desertification and distress of the land. Namo has pushed LPG avg in india beyond 90% of homes.

birth rate is about the only thing I saw whose curve higher than india. we have already a gap of 5 years in avg life expectancy.

with 200 mil people, poor in resources and nothing to plunder in arid afghanistan, radicalized tanzeems ruling the roost.....they are staring at the abyss even if India and Iran do not boot them along (which we will!)

population is too much for gulf states to absorb (most of their flights seem to gulf rather than in-country) and only few lakh elites can make way to anglo countries.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 06 Mar 2019 23:08

^^one baki cab driver on my recent trip to heathrow was saying bakis are more in no. and bigger in area than UK why is it that UK is richer. He had the usual aap self flagellating stuff. Then he pointed out to second A of Pakistan: allah. Of course he missed the part that mattered most which was brain

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Mar 2019 23:12

namo has pushed LPG home use from 50% to 90% in 4 years
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 930092.cms

http://chartsbin.com/view/37258 here also you can see household consumption by country... india is 13000 while TSP is some ridiculous number like 197. how people are managing god alone knows - probably scrub wood, straw+dung and coal. its like india in the 1970s.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 07 Mar 2019 07:03

ArjunPandit wrote:^^one baki cab driver on my recent trip to heathrow was saying bakis are more in no. and bigger in area than UK why is it that UK is richer. He had the usual aap self flagellating stuff. Then he pointed out to second A of Pakistan: allah. Of course he missed the part that mattered most which was brain

Didn't you ask him that Bakis are highest in number in well.. Bakistan, so why are they not the richest?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 Mar 2019 17:18

Had to reach airport.. Didn't want to see his AoA with his car

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Mar 2019 23:36

UlanBatori wrote:Getting back to the EndGame: Time for some Clear Statement of Goals
The EndGame cannot be a Pakistan as it exists today. Some believe that only minor behavioral change by the present entities is worth striving for. We believe that the present entities will not change behavior, and therefore must be removed.
1. Not just the present "government". ANY entity that claims to "govern" all Pakistan.
2. However we cannot have a totally government-less Pakistan next door to India. All sorts of entities such as ISIS would rush to fill the crater.
3. So we argue for Pakistan to be broken into 5 entities, with their own governments: Balochistan, Pakhtoonistan, Balwaristan, Sindh, Pakjab.
4. Each will be prohibited by their neighbors (India and Iran) from ever possessing WMD of any sort. Like in Lebanon, possession of a gun or explosives - or NBC weapons of course - will be grounds for the death penalty.
5. How one can keep Pakjabis from breeding is another issue, but not to be dealt with here. In the long term, the desirable outcome is reforestation of the entire Pakjab as an area for Carbon Sequestration. A sort of Global Forest (like National Forest). To honor the millions killed or maimed or otherwise traumatized by nearly a century of terrorism and hate.

Now that we have "clarity" on the Goal, maybe we can move forward to its swiftest accomplishment.

Balakot is a metaphor for Endgame of TSP.
The walls might stand but the innards get shredded.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Mar 2019 03:18

To move there, what we need is to shake off the notion that India does not do pre-emptive, in fact totally un-"provoked", disproportionate attacks. IMO 72 years of provocation is more than enough. One per Houri.

Balakot made the point about "pre-emptive" but I have a hard time visualizing a headline that says: "INDIA DESTROYS PAKISTANI AIR BASE - Just like that. Because India felt like it". Let the other side wonder what India is going to do next. Unstable neighbor. Crazies running it.

V r not there yet. Can you visualize a news item, say, next week, out of the blue, saying: India strikes terror camps deep inside Pakistani Punjab? Taking out Mudike & Lahore? Or even Muzzafarabad (beyond what has already happened)?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Mar 2019 03:28

Singha wrote:namo has pushed LPG home use from 50% to 90% in 4 years
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 930092.cms

http://chartsbin.com/view/37258 here also you can see household consumption by country... india is 13000 while TSP is some ridiculous number like 197. how people are managing god alone knows - probably scrub wood, straw+dung and coal. its like india in the 1970s.

Guatemala 214
Sudan 214
Pakistan 197

The top 5 are:
United States 18,632
China 16,353.8
India 13,568
Mexico 5,807
Brazil 5,646

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 08 Mar 2019 07:02

Peaceful mostly voluntary dissolution would be best:

Different entities in pakistan need safe exits with minimum pain.

The Pak armed forces need to feel useful, so they must be provided some engaging and creative pursuits. But not to a level where the other sections feel insecure. With a sub-conventional engagement the armed forces will be too preoccupied to babysit the Jihadis. Lacking reliable transport to the LOC the jehadis can redirect their energies to the Pak middle-class.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 08 Mar 2019 07:14

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/hubco-co ... an.484817/

Interesting that its 74% Chinese ownership close to Karachi(large user base so ROI must be secure) and its far from gwadar.

As for Gwadar:
https://nation.com.pk/03-Aug-2018/iran- ... panel-told

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 08 Mar 2019 07:40

Gwadar port is not on the national grid. It seems to run on generators a lot !
Demand is only 100 MW and population density in Sistan/Baluchistan is low and may not support coal plants...perhaps Solar?

There are vulnerabilities, Gwadar needs to deliver high growth. Wondering if the Chinese have factored all.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 08 Mar 2019 07:51

Suraj wrote:
Singha wrote:namo has pushed LPG home use from 50% to 90% in 4 years
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 930092.cms

http://chartsbin.com/view/37258 here also you can see household consumption by country... india is 13000 while TSP is some ridiculous number like 197. how people are managing god alone knows - probably scrub wood, straw+dung and coal. its like india in the 1970s.
Guatemala 214
Sudan 214
Pakistan 197

The top 5 are:
United States 18,632
China 16,353.8
India 13,568
Mexico 5,807
Brazil 5,646

From what I remember, Pak is a huge consumer of LNG; in fact it's known that expensive LNG was being used to run power plants instead of coal, one reason for the high electricity prices (theft being the biggest reason of course). Pak urban and urbane households have had piped gas for ever. Unsurprisingly, LNG consumption of Pak is rather high https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... onsumption 41B m^3 versus India at 54B m^3.

While our lead over the Pakis is clear and increasing every coming day, let's be objective and factual here.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Mar 2019 09:06

I have my problems with the "90% of households get ModiLP" claim. About 70% of "households" don't get counted in the "90%", but this is not the place to argue that. India-TSP roughly equal-equal in the state of the rural population, though yes, huge strides have been made since 2014. Hugely OT here, except that Ending TSP is essential for Rajasthan, border parts of Punjab & Gujarat, all of J&K, all to have a chance for peaceful, undisturbed development. Also the other states, by permitting a stand-down from the extreme costs of having to always ward off the pests across the border.

Give Peace a Chance...

syam · Post by **syam** » 08 Mar 2019 10:05

We are not ready for end game, yet. The key part for endgame is, the pre-stuff that goes before the game. So far I see zero effort in that area. We Indians are not ready for any type of game yet. Only less than 1 % are interested in wars. The leader is ok, some 50k Indians are ok. But not all. Everyone is used to the peace. They can't stomach any causality.

It's better to go back to drawing board and come up with another game plan.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Mar 2019 13:03

More than Bakis, It is the Indians and India that is worried about a imploding Bakistan and no major push from India in that direction. The more I hear the retired jokers of MEA, more I believe that we will clutch at Panchsheel, Gandhi and WKK if Pakistan ever goes belly up.
We don't have any plans on how do we handle a collapsed Bakistan and we will be caught in the forest fire like those elites in Palo Alto every summer.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 08 Mar 2019 14:50

Simple game plan is build up our alliances both with outside players and insiders to Pakistan.
Make ourselves strong by rooting out our BIF traitors within.
Develop economy and invest more to make our MIC robust.

Last but not least stick to a leader who can deliver on all these fronts simultaneously.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 08 Mar 2019 15:11

Pindi chana gas suppy of bakistan has low pressure, so every where abdul has to install illegal "compressors" to draw enough gas to make the bugger bum blast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxxwNjT9BTY

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Mar 2019 16:50

how do you collapse a large dangerous derelict building?

have to carefully lay the charges in the pillars and timing pattern to make it collapse neatly on itself with no collaterals.

you have seen it done on natgeo/discovery HD

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Mar 2019 16:54

https://fp.brecorder.com/2017/02/20170222143933/

probably around 40 million of pop enjoy cheap piped gas, if we take the 8 mil consumers and avg household size of 5.

a lot of gas is probably used for power generation.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 08 Mar 2019 23:34

apparently 12% of grid power in pakistan from comes from natural gas (CCGT). But reserves are stated to be low.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p ... _service_2

In the US where both Coal and gas are abundant, coal plants are dying and becoming outdated relics.
India and China are still in the coal age

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Mar 2019 23:35

Because India has huge coal reserves. US BTW has huge R&D programs on "Clean Coal" so absolutely no intention to go away from Coal. The rest is pure Berkeley-Stanford (propagandoos).

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 09 Mar 2019 00:05

Someone who is playing the game right:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/mos ... -1.6531857

Its Trumps stupidity not to engage Iran: look at the last few paras
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/03/pa ... ver-trump/

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 09 Mar 2019 00:21

Yes it may make sense for India.
definitely not the case in the US. It's not propagandu, real dollars and cents.
The real reason natural gas is such viable bet in the US is because of the early multi trillion investment in distribution.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_g ... es_map.png
The distribution network is protected by tax breaks written in to the tax code long back.

https://www.americanactionforum.org/res ... s-markets/
Only trump and zoolander's dad are into coal

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 09 Mar 2019 01:06

Vikas wrote:More than Bakis, It is the Indians and India that is worried about a imploding Bakistan and no major push from India in that direction. The more I hear the retired jokers of MEA, more I believe that we will clutch at Panchsheel, Gandhi and WKK if Pakistan ever goes belly up.
We don't have any plans on how do we handle a collapsed Bakistan and we will be caught in the forest fire like those elites in Palo Alto every summer.

I am yet to see any any such analysis reaching even up to the state of a meaningful write up on endgame. And here you are saying that Indians are afraid of a baki break up? when where. May be the circle you are in actually has such far sighted guys. most in my circle are afraid to look beyond this thing due to nuclear bogey. Even in BRF (yes ahead of the curve one), before this thread I found very few posts that talk about immediate aftermath of post endgame. The immigrant crisis, although real, is a US template borrowed from Korea. India has to define its own templates

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 09 Mar 2019 02:17

Vikas wrote:More than Bakis, It is the Indians and India that is worried about a imploding Bakistan and no major push from India in that direction. The more I hear the retired jokers of MEA, more I believe that we will clutch at Panchsheel, Gandhi and WKK if Pakistan ever goes belly up.
We don't have any plans on how do we handle a collapsed Bakistan and we will be caught in the forest fire like those elites in Palo Alto every summer.

Vikas Ji :

I am you are aware of the effect of Terroristan Destabilizing Afghanistan. I believe about Five Million Afghans took Shelter in Terroristan.

As such Terroristani Destabilization - Implosion will lead to Tens of Millions of Terroristan, may be a Hundred Million Terroristanis, IF NOT MORE, taking shelter in India and they will have the Sympathy of Retired Jokers of MEA along with the WKK and the Con Gress alongwith with their like minded cohorts will possibly ENSURE that these Terroristanis ARE GIVEN REFUGE IN INDIA!

Cheers

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 09 Mar 2019 03:00

"As such Terroristani Destabilization - Implosion will lead to Tens of Millions of Terroristan, may be a Hundred Million Terroristanis, IF NOT MORE"

Exactly and they have to be accounted for in any end game
So has this "end game" ever been gamed? It may actually happen whether we like it or not.

Balochistan btw has hardly any people, do people from the subcontinent what it to go to the Iranosphere?

India has annexed Sikkim and Goa.
For any larger proposition like Bangladesh we turned chicken.
Interestingly with Bangladesh we ended up with these enclaves and counter enclaves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2% ... h_enclaves

We have not projected power to Maldives, why no punch-shil ?

There are legal workarounds for article 35a in Kashmir. Any attempts or models?
In the US there are native american casinos on sovereign nations/reservations.
Not suggesting that, but its possible for people from both sides to work around stupid laws till they become irrelevant

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 10 Mar 2019 15:08

One of the most important thing post endgame would be to dismantle the Pak army and ISI set up. We may need to co opt stone elements, bit still need to weed out most and deradicalize the nation over long periods in a sustained manner. I think a template similar to Germany might be useful

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Mar 2019 15:55

blochistan is best left as a indian-allied buffer state to mind their business. they can be a viable state as they have access to sea.

can be our gateway rather than china's gateway

iran has its own issues with x-border baluchi population .... I dont think blochistan will do well as a iranian vassal or blochis want it like that.

a semi citizen status like puerto ricans get in murica can be worked out for any splinter states - they can freely travel, work, live, buy in india but not vote for some time.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 10 Mar 2019 16:55

to get to balochistan, we need to get a land based access as well. Will require access through. Dont think it is going to be that easy

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 10 Mar 2019 20:42

Not a solution but something to think about:

A Pakistani immigrant to Netherlands Denmark or the US is mostly respectful of things and does not usually upset the Apple cart.

If deals and secure exists are made with say Baluch Sardars or other smaller sections with a chance of upward mobility.

Right now China is trying to play such a card but it’s a financial stretch for them and they have backed the wrong horse.

A very large social disparity between India and Pakistan needs to develop like the US Mexico. Respect and attitude correction will happen.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 10 Mar 2019 21:10

In small chosen parts of Kashmir create Secure Enclaves where it’s safe to live and do business.

Let the other places go to the dogs. If people want to burn buses and throw stones let them do it in their neighbourhood so that their real estate values sink. No need to support petrol pumps there.

In fact they should be encouraged to accelerate social disparity btw.

Those who opt in need to see a tangible reward for their choice.

A “carry everyone along” policy right from the start will fail.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 11 Mar 2019 01:03

banrjeer wrote:Not a solution but something to think about:
A Pakistani immigrant to Netherlands Denmark or the US is mostly respectful of things and does not usually upset the Apple cart.

These things were discussed on GDF in past. There's a reason these things are not discussed post GDF closure. However, you're welcome to
1. search rudradev/Ramana sir's oil model.
2. think why things are not the same in UK

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 11 Mar 2019 06:48

banrjeer wrote:Not a solution but something to think about:
A Pakistani immigrant to Netherlands Denmark or the US is mostly respectful of things and does not usually upset the Apple cart.

You must be kidding. They spend their time packing BakPaks full of fertilizer and fuel oil, trying to rape haraam gori wimmens who go around showing their forearms, or trying to join ISIS. "respectful" indeed!

Same or worse in Kangaroostan, except that blowback is severe there, incl. by the government.
And they have virtually taken over Britain and are on the way to that in France and Norway and Sweden.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 11 Mar 2019 10:31

SpecOps forces will need to take out all nuke storage sites/silos, enrichment & processing facilities as well as start removing/dismantling as many tactical nukes as possible. India & Israel need to jointly work on this. Multiple teams need to be working simultaneously and independently to achieve a common goal. KSA shouldnt be in a position to freely ferry these nukes from KSA to TSP, back and forth depending on the situation. We need to make this prospect very unviable for all the stakeholders of nuclear proliferation, theft and blackmail (TSP, Cheen, KSA and NoKo).

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Mar 2019 11:32

Klaus wrote:SpecOps forces will need to take out all nuke storage sites/silos, enrichment & processing facilities as well as start removing/dismantling as many tactical nukes as possible. India & Israel need to jointly work on this. Multiple teams need to be working simultaneously and independently to achieve a common goal. KSA shouldnt be in a position to freely ferry these nukes from KSA to TSP, back and forth depending on the situation. We need to make this prospect very unviable for all the stakeholders of nuclear proliferation, theft and blackmail (TSP, Cheen, KSA and NoKo).

Special forces by themselves cant do all of this.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 11 Mar 2019 12:07

"You must be kidding. They spend their time packing BakPaks full of fertilizer and fuel oil"

Yes some of that is expected where they are coming from, but still not the full fledged crap like in the subcontinent. Partly because more
educated/upwardly mobile people are emigrating. But also the factor of having more to gain when playing by the rules. It sobers people.

A large disparity is still not there in the subcontinent. It's more of an equal-equal "kirkit" kind of dynamic. Not like US and Mexico. The sooner India gets there, the better.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 11 Mar 2019 12:24

Tactical victories are not enough. A legal and fiscal solution needs to be put int place to deal with 200 million people from a failed state.
Right now India is barely able to keep its own house in order.

syam · Post by **syam** » 11 Mar 2019 12:33

The equal-equal is true for some period of time. Most of the India was Delhi and Mumbai back then.

India equation was like - 30+40+9+5+6+1+1+1+1.... (Delhi, Mumbai, other cities)
Pakistan was like - 20+18+11+5+(50) (Islapindi,karachi and their black economy)

Now equations changed ofcourse, India has multiple 70+ cities now. Pakistan numbers gone bearish. We score at least 300+ now. Pakis are stuck below 70.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 11 Mar 2019 12:34

If and when Bakis implode, Vultures from all over the place will land to get their piece of real estate. Iran, Afghan and Cheen will hustle in in the garb of Ummah or Iron Brotherhood. We anyway still are a decade or two away from Baki implosion.
Million dollar question will be - Who becomes next fourfather of Bakis.